Understanding the US - Again
Re: Understanding the US- Again
Heard from some one who works closely with the biggest chip-makers of the world: They are high-tailing out of cheen, probably because Deep State told them to. Seems cheen vs khan is getting uglier by the day, with cheen getting too cocky and kind of stupid. Heard similar story from a Japanese auto-major, who was betting big on cheen to supply cheapest cost batteries and rare-earth magnets for motors, using nipoonese-tech and thereby triumph over that Madhu Musk-an dude. Seems khan and his orderlies, have finally decided to spin the roulette wheel again, after 25 years Deng.
good news is the said chip-maker is gingerly dipping its toe around here in, of all places, Trivandrum. Hence am hearing this heart-warming insight about Cheen's mushy-grade tactical-brilliance.
good news is the said chip-maker is gingerly dipping its toe around here in, of all places, Trivandrum. Hence am hearing this heart-warming insight about Cheen's mushy-grade tactical-brilliance.
Re: Understanding the US- Again
UlanBatoriji,UlanBatori wrote: He'll be out in 7, by the age of 58. But things are improving. In Dera Prinjeton Khan, a locality in NooJoiseyStan, it was standard practice that cases where Indians were murdered were prosecuted on "manslaughter" which of course was an advancement because non-WASPS were not considered human at all.
That is not correct. Please note:
"https://www.cbsnews.com/news/adam-purin ... chibhotla/
Kansas man sentenced to life in prison for killing Indian immigrant
....
Under terms of a plea agreement, District Judge Charles Droege sentenced Purinton to the maximum sentence on each of the three charges, and ordered them to run consecutively. Purinton was given two sentences of about 14 years for wounding the two men and wouldn't be eligible for parole for 77.5 years, the Kansas City Star reported."
Inmate Purinton killed one and attempted to kill two other. One of the three is a gora. Also, using a firearm makes it special circumstances, where the sentence is automatically longer. The three sentences are running consecutively, not concurrently. So, he will certainly not be released in 7 years. The plea deal saved his life, he could have been given the death penalty. At 52, his chance of being released after 77.5 years is not very good.
Gautam
Last edited by g.sarkar on 09 May 2018 00:38, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Understanding the US- Again
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/07/us/p ... -deal.html
"Trump Is Expected to Leave Iran Deal, Allies Say
By DAVID E. SANGER and STEVEN ERLANGERMAY 7, 2018
WASHINGTON — President Trump is expected to announce on Tuesday that he is withdrawing the United States from the Iran nuclear deal, European diplomats said after concluding that they had failed to convince him that reneging on America’s commitment to the pact could cast the West into new confrontation with Tehran.
If the diplomats are correct, the announcement will be the most consequential national security decision of Mr. Trump’s 15 months in office — though it could be eclipsed in coming weeks by his direct negotiation with North Korea’s leader over surrendering its nuclear arsenal.
One senior European diplomat who has been deeply involved in trying to persuade Mr. Trump to stay in the deal told reporters on Monday the chance that the president would keep the agreement intact was “very small.”
At the heart of the deal to limit Iran’s nuclear program, which was reached in July 2015 after more than two and a half years of negotiation, lay a bold trade.
....
Mr. Trump has told visitors he believes that once the current agreement is destroyed, Iran will come to the table to negotiate a new one. Iran’s foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, who negotiated the initial accord with Mr. Kerry for more than two years, has said Tehran will not participate in such negotiations since it already spent years doing so.
The narrow decision Mr. Trump will have to announce on Tuesday is whether he is willing to once again waive American sanctions on Iran, holding up America’s commitments under the deal.
Yet even if Mr. Trump reimposes those sanctions, Europeans note that there are some delays built into the accord — a reconciliation period of about a month, and delays of 120 to 180 days before renewed American sanctions bite.
In a world of Trump brinkmanship, all that could allow time for further negotiations.
Iran can go to the brink as well, however, and anticipating its response is difficult. Hard-liners are already arguing to resume uranium enrichment and plutonium production. But it is entirely possible Iran will choose to abide by the deal for now, to make sharper the split between the United States and its European allies.
......"
There is talk that to mollify UK, France and Germany, they may be exempt from the sanctions that will follow. That will leave China, Russia and India that will come under sanctions if they buy from Iran.
Gautam
"Trump Is Expected to Leave Iran Deal, Allies Say
By DAVID E. SANGER and STEVEN ERLANGERMAY 7, 2018
WASHINGTON — President Trump is expected to announce on Tuesday that he is withdrawing the United States from the Iran nuclear deal, European diplomats said after concluding that they had failed to convince him that reneging on America’s commitment to the pact could cast the West into new confrontation with Tehran.
If the diplomats are correct, the announcement will be the most consequential national security decision of Mr. Trump’s 15 months in office — though it could be eclipsed in coming weeks by his direct negotiation with North Korea’s leader over surrendering its nuclear arsenal.
One senior European diplomat who has been deeply involved in trying to persuade Mr. Trump to stay in the deal told reporters on Monday the chance that the president would keep the agreement intact was “very small.”
At the heart of the deal to limit Iran’s nuclear program, which was reached in July 2015 after more than two and a half years of negotiation, lay a bold trade.
....
Mr. Trump has told visitors he believes that once the current agreement is destroyed, Iran will come to the table to negotiate a new one. Iran’s foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, who negotiated the initial accord with Mr. Kerry for more than two years, has said Tehran will not participate in such negotiations since it already spent years doing so.
The narrow decision Mr. Trump will have to announce on Tuesday is whether he is willing to once again waive American sanctions on Iran, holding up America’s commitments under the deal.
Yet even if Mr. Trump reimposes those sanctions, Europeans note that there are some delays built into the accord — a reconciliation period of about a month, and delays of 120 to 180 days before renewed American sanctions bite.
In a world of Trump brinkmanship, all that could allow time for further negotiations.
Iran can go to the brink as well, however, and anticipating its response is difficult. Hard-liners are already arguing to resume uranium enrichment and plutonium production. But it is entirely possible Iran will choose to abide by the deal for now, to make sharper the split between the United States and its European allies.
......"
There is talk that to mollify UK, France and Germany, they may be exempt from the sanctions that will follow. That will leave China, Russia and India that will come under sanctions if they buy from Iran.
Gautam
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Re: Understanding the US- Again
Heartwarming no doubt due to rising BP: Do u know the itihas of the naam "Keltron"? Predated "ENRON" by a couple of decades.hnair wrote: good news is the said chip-maker is gingerly dipping its toe around here in, of all places, Trivandrum. Hence am hearing this heart-warming insight about Cheen's mushy-grade tactical-brilliance.
XI is REALLY out to destroy Khan if they advised them to set up shop in Dera CPI(M) Khan.
Re: Understanding the US- Again
Crouching Dragon - Blundering Orange-utan
a new movie starring Emperor Xi and Good Ol' Donnyboy
guest appearance by Stormy Di
you will be astonished! (one way or the other)
a new movie starring Emperor Xi and Good Ol' Donnyboy
guest appearance by Stormy Di
you will be astonished! (one way or the other)
Re: Understanding the US- Again
DT policy in West Asia looks interesting. Seems to be geared for regime change in Syria and Iran. And Syria is not even finished but new front opened. The underlying theme is even NoKo is earlier part of the axis of Ebil dogma.
To what end is all this?
And tie in rising interest rates in US due to wage inflation.
Ad world trade flows based on $ denomination.
KSA has spare 500K bbl/day capacity.
Is this all petro $ relations?
So how much Iran oil is in the market?
If France and Germany are exempt and IRC are the main Iranian oil importers what's the impact?
To what end is all this?
And tie in rising interest rates in US due to wage inflation.
Ad world trade flows based on $ denomination.
KSA has spare 500K bbl/day capacity.
Is this all petro $ relations?
So how much Iran oil is in the market?
If France and Germany are exempt and IRC are the main Iranian oil importers what's the impact?
Re: Understanding the US- Again
India will come off worst in any sanctions scenario with Iran - oil and chahbahar
Re: Understanding the US- Again
I am wondering why aren't we sanctioned till now for our FCRA decisions.
Re: Understanding the US- Again
Interesting is a good way to put it. It seems America's EU partners will not be completely exempt, but some accommodation will be made for them for their loss in Iran. Unfortunately, with John Bolton as an adviser, DT might be dragged into a war without even wanting it. Who knows, he may even want to be a great war leader like Ike or Churchill.In the press conference DT was boasting of a new age of peace and prosperity with NK, SK and Japan. But there is no real NK, there is only China. Will China want that?ramana wrote:DT policy in West Asia looks interesting. Seems to be geared for regime change in Syria and Iran. And Syria is not even finished but new front opened. The underlying theme is even NoKo is earlier part of the axis of Ebil dogma.
To what end is all this?
And tie in rising interest rates in US due to wage inflation.
Ad world trade flows based on $ denomination.
KSA has spare 500K bbl/day capacity.
Is this all petro $ relations?
So how much Iran oil is in the market?
If France and Germany are exempt and IRC are the main Iranian oil importers what's the impact?
Gautam
Re: Understanding the US- Again
with bolton in charge and pompeo an eager yes man and DT's limited understanding of global power politics... the doomsday clock just ticked a little closer to midnight...
Re: Understanding the US- Again
https://www.cnn.com/2018/05/08/politics ... index.html
Trump announces withdrawal from Iran nuclear deal, isolating him further from world
Washington (CNN)President Donald Trump announced Tuesday he is quitting the Iran nuclear deal, pitting him against the United States' closest allies and leaving the future of Tehran's nuclear ambitions in question.
.....
Trump, meanwhile, spoke early in the day with Chinese President Xi Jinping and phoned French President Emmanuel Macron mid-morning.
A French source familiar with the call between Trump and Macron described the conversation as "very, very disappointing."
Macron was one of several European leaders who had lobbied Trump to remain in the deal, arguing it remains the best way to curtail Iran's nuclear ambitions. Both Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel flew to Washington to make their appeals in person.
Trump told them the deal failed to address Iran's ballistic missile program or its support of terror in the Middle East. They appeared receptive and began negotiations on a separate deal that would address his concerns. But European diplomats expressed only pessimism that their efforts would be successful.
"It's pretty obvious to me that unless something changes in the next few days, I believe the President will not waive the sanctions," one European diplomat told reporters on Monday. Trump's final decision to withdraw from the deal was made over the weekend, according to a person familiar with the discussions, though it was long considered a foregone conclusion inside the White House.
National security adviser John Bolton, an Iran hawk who nonetheless told people he was committed to providing all options to Trump, offered a variety of paths, including reimposing all sanctions, applying new sanctions, or allowing for more time to negotiate with the Europeans.
Trump determined that more time would not bridge disagreements, most pointedly his demand that Iran's nuclear program be curbed past the current deal's sunset in 2030. In his talks with Macron and Merkel, Trump left little doubt that he was planning to withdraw, according to Western diplomats. But he insisted he hadn't made a final decision and kept his precise plans guarded.
....
Gautam
Trump announces withdrawal from Iran nuclear deal, isolating him further from world
Washington (CNN)President Donald Trump announced Tuesday he is quitting the Iran nuclear deal, pitting him against the United States' closest allies and leaving the future of Tehran's nuclear ambitions in question.
.....
Trump, meanwhile, spoke early in the day with Chinese President Xi Jinping and phoned French President Emmanuel Macron mid-morning.
A French source familiar with the call between Trump and Macron described the conversation as "very, very disappointing."
Macron was one of several European leaders who had lobbied Trump to remain in the deal, arguing it remains the best way to curtail Iran's nuclear ambitions. Both Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel flew to Washington to make their appeals in person.
Trump told them the deal failed to address Iran's ballistic missile program or its support of terror in the Middle East. They appeared receptive and began negotiations on a separate deal that would address his concerns. But European diplomats expressed only pessimism that their efforts would be successful.
"It's pretty obvious to me that unless something changes in the next few days, I believe the President will not waive the sanctions," one European diplomat told reporters on Monday. Trump's final decision to withdraw from the deal was made over the weekend, according to a person familiar with the discussions, though it was long considered a foregone conclusion inside the White House.
National security adviser John Bolton, an Iran hawk who nonetheless told people he was committed to providing all options to Trump, offered a variety of paths, including reimposing all sanctions, applying new sanctions, or allowing for more time to negotiate with the Europeans.
Trump determined that more time would not bridge disagreements, most pointedly his demand that Iran's nuclear program be curbed past the current deal's sunset in 2030. In his talks with Macron and Merkel, Trump left little doubt that he was planning to withdraw, according to Western diplomats. But he insisted he hadn't made a final decision and kept his precise plans guarded.
....
Gautam
Re: Understanding the US- Again
My tweet
https://twitter.com/ramana_brf/status/9 ... 01824?s=19
Response to question if Iran can avoid sanctions?
https://twitter.com/ramana_brf/status/9 ... 01824?s=19
Response to question if Iran can avoid sanctions?
No way out. DT wants regime change in Iran. Kerry at al were trying for Shia Irani redux like 17th century to curb Sunni Arabs. Iran deal is about that. Give up nooks take the West Asia. And here is $1B to go with.
Re: Understanding the US- Again
See the Iran nuke deal.was about nukes. In return for not developing nukes, Iran gets oil and banking sanctions lifted and frozen funds returned.
DT is bringing in extraneous factors which means he is not interested in keeping the deal.
Spinster wisely said "Deals with US last 4 years. The half life is 1.5 years due to mid terms elections".
I submit some deals have no life like the IUCNA.
DT is bringing in extraneous factors which means he is not interested in keeping the deal.
Spinster wisely said "Deals with US last 4 years. The half life is 1.5 years due to mid terms elections".
I submit some deals have no life like the IUCNA.
Re: Understanding the US- Again
US is behaving like the historic Persians and later Byzantium.
Both had treaties not worth the clay tablets they were etched on.
Both had treaties not worth the clay tablets they were etched on.
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Re: Understanding the US- Again
UBCN has decided to come out with an in-depth Analysis on this. DT policies are like murky cesspools - always have more depth than appears on the surface, though the aroma keeps most people away from diving into it to explore.
1. See Twit above ramana's. DT claims Another Election Promise Kept. Obama mad. Wackostan happy.
2. Midterm elections coming up.
3. Economy needs a nice boost, and what better way than drive up stocks of mijjile-makers?
Those are the surface. But we dig below.
4. What exactly is the impact of US Sanctions on Iran?
5. On the nations which may suffer sanctions because they deal with Iran?
6. What is the cost for Iran, of sticking to the deal though the US keeps sanctions?
7. What would be cost to the US for **NOT** walking away (i.e., waiving the sanctions again)?
I believe (4) is minimal. Their assets seized in the US are anyway kaput because they refused to participate in the kangaroo court loot in the US. OTOH, by not participating there, they moved away from the line of fire and exposed their dear friends the Saudis to said kangaroo court. Will Foggy Bottom intervene on behalf of KSA and claim Sovereign Immunity for them when they failed to do so for Iran? So net impact of (4) is positive for Iran per our analysis.
(5) again is interesting. I don't think countries like (never mind) are going to just sit back and agree to be "sanctioned" just because they are trading with their neighbors, with the full weight of the signed multinational agreement behind them. If US imposes sanctions, those nations can/will take the US to the WTO etc and the US reps will be buying new VIPs at WarMalt. OTOH, they will quietly impose reciprocal retaliations that WILL hurt the US, because they have a wide choice of retaliations, since the US has become the outlaw/ deal-breaker here. If anything, they can reduce US companies' credit ratings and kick them out of bidding for projects citing extreme risk. So my guess is that this is just gas. Already US is "exempting" several Oiropean nations, I think all will be "exempted" and not much baksheesh will be paid by those nations (incl. India if smart) for that "privilege".
(6)Practically no cost. They will state in public that they are staying the course but reserve the right to do what they want. They will ban inspectors etc. And they will quietly do what they want and deny it all. Israel and US Intelligence will scream, and everyone will point to them as the deal-breakers/outlaws/war-mongers.
(7) There I think the cost would have been political as in Israel-pasand.
******************************
Now let us advance the True UBCN projection based on our unmatched intel-gathering from Sources Intimately Familiar With the Situation Who Spoke On Condition of Anonymity Because They Are Not Allowed To Speak To The Media But Did Anyway Because V R So Nice:
8. Look carefully at DT's Strategic Experiment vis-a-vis Korea. Put Iran-Israel in place of NoKo-SoKo. Russia in place of PRC. Sanctions were threatened against countries that dealt with Noko. India continued to have Embassy in Pyongyang. Russia ignored sanctions saying they were illegal, just as China will ignore them here in selling to Iran.
But what DT is doing is to actually walk the US away from role as Guarantor of SoKo / Israel's Security Guarantor. Why do we say that? Because DT is offering the same wonderful Future to Iran/Israel as he did to NoKo/SoKo: One where a quasi-nuclear war will be fought on **THEIR** territory with the most losses to **THEM**.
US may fire missiles and drop bombs, but those will invite the threat of retaliation by Russia against ISRAEL. How many Israelis would like to see Israel heavily damaged and the Defence posture trashed by an extended all-out war with Iran? Who wins that war? (Answer: Israel's OTHER friendly neighbors such as KSA, Turkey, Egypt).
So DT is gambling as this race towards Armageddon gathers pace, sane heads in Israel will kick out NutNYahoo, and MAYBE, just MAYBE, the saner heads will win in Teheran as well.
Look for an Israel-Iran Peace Summit coming up.
Even we have a tough time imagining DT describing the Ayatollah in the glowing terms he's using for Kim Young One, but stranger things have happened already.
1. See Twit above ramana's. DT claims Another Election Promise Kept. Obama mad. Wackostan happy.
2. Midterm elections coming up.
3. Economy needs a nice boost, and what better way than drive up stocks of mijjile-makers?
Those are the surface. But we dig below.
4. What exactly is the impact of US Sanctions on Iran?
5. On the nations which may suffer sanctions because they deal with Iran?
6. What is the cost for Iran, of sticking to the deal though the US keeps sanctions?
7. What would be cost to the US for **NOT** walking away (i.e., waiving the sanctions again)?
I believe (4) is minimal. Their assets seized in the US are anyway kaput because they refused to participate in the kangaroo court loot in the US. OTOH, by not participating there, they moved away from the line of fire and exposed their dear friends the Saudis to said kangaroo court. Will Foggy Bottom intervene on behalf of KSA and claim Sovereign Immunity for them when they failed to do so for Iran? So net impact of (4) is positive for Iran per our analysis.
(5) again is interesting. I don't think countries like (never mind) are going to just sit back and agree to be "sanctioned" just because they are trading with their neighbors, with the full weight of the signed multinational agreement behind them. If US imposes sanctions, those nations can/will take the US to the WTO etc and the US reps will be buying new VIPs at WarMalt. OTOH, they will quietly impose reciprocal retaliations that WILL hurt the US, because they have a wide choice of retaliations, since the US has become the outlaw/ deal-breaker here. If anything, they can reduce US companies' credit ratings and kick them out of bidding for projects citing extreme risk. So my guess is that this is just gas. Already US is "exempting" several Oiropean nations, I think all will be "exempted" and not much baksheesh will be paid by those nations (incl. India if smart) for that "privilege".
(6)Practically no cost. They will state in public that they are staying the course but reserve the right to do what they want. They will ban inspectors etc. And they will quietly do what they want and deny it all. Israel and US Intelligence will scream, and everyone will point to them as the deal-breakers/outlaws/war-mongers.
(7) There I think the cost would have been political as in Israel-pasand.
******************************
Now let us advance the True UBCN projection based on our unmatched intel-gathering from Sources Intimately Familiar With the Situation Who Spoke On Condition of Anonymity Because They Are Not Allowed To Speak To The Media But Did Anyway Because V R So Nice:
8. Look carefully at DT's Strategic Experiment vis-a-vis Korea. Put Iran-Israel in place of NoKo-SoKo. Russia in place of PRC. Sanctions were threatened against countries that dealt with Noko. India continued to have Embassy in Pyongyang. Russia ignored sanctions saying they were illegal, just as China will ignore them here in selling to Iran.
But what DT is doing is to actually walk the US away from role as Guarantor of SoKo / Israel's Security Guarantor. Why do we say that? Because DT is offering the same wonderful Future to Iran/Israel as he did to NoKo/SoKo: One where a quasi-nuclear war will be fought on **THEIR** territory with the most losses to **THEM**.
US may fire missiles and drop bombs, but those will invite the threat of retaliation by Russia against ISRAEL. How many Israelis would like to see Israel heavily damaged and the Defence posture trashed by an extended all-out war with Iran? Who wins that war? (Answer: Israel's OTHER friendly neighbors such as KSA, Turkey, Egypt).
So DT is gambling as this race towards Armageddon gathers pace, sane heads in Israel will kick out NutNYahoo, and MAYBE, just MAYBE, the saner heads will win in Teheran as well.
Look for an Israel-Iran Peace Summit coming up.
Even we have a tough time imagining DT describing the Ayatollah in the glowing terms he's using for Kim Young One, but stranger things have happened already.
Meanwhile, KSA is racing towards breakup and regime change. DT can see that plainly. He needs to get Israel-Iran settled before that happens. Q.E.D.Her Excellency The Most Honorable and Dignitiable Mohterma Stormy Daniels, Ambassador of the United State of America To The Islamic Republic of Iran
Last edited by UlanBatori on 10 May 2018 01:25, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Understanding the US- Again
"Her Excellency The Most Honorable and Dignitiable Mohterma Stormy Daniels, Ambassador of the United State of America To The Islamic Republic of Iran"
UlanBatoriji,
I checked out a few of Ms. Stormy's films on internet sites. Just to get more information about the Mohterma, not for any lewd reasons mind you. She is an excellent actor in a field not known for acting prowess. In my own humble opinion she is better than our own desi Sunny Leone. She would make an excellent ambassador to Iran.
Gautam
UlanBatoriji,
I checked out a few of Ms. Stormy's films on internet sites. Just to get more information about the Mohterma, not for any lewd reasons mind you. She is an excellent actor in a field not known for acting prowess. In my own humble opinion she is better than our own desi Sunny Leone. She would make an excellent ambassador to Iran.
Gautam
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Re: Understanding the US- Again
Of course! I never thought otherwise. I would have too, but I think my computer may be checked by Big Brother.Just to get more information about the Mohterma, not for any lewd reasons mind you.
She had to be good, I didn't think a $4Billionaire would "not-sleep" with just any ol' White House Intern, hain? Apparently his lawyer may have paid out a lot to several others to keep mouth shut, well, afterwards.
Re: Understanding the US- Again
Breakup?? Ritz-Carlton 1.0 brought Gabbar MBS, who has already opened protectorate's treasury coffers to ungle (ummah tech city, six flags, free solar electricity, entertainment, women empowerment, use weapons in Yayman-and-buy-more etc. etc.). Why Ritz-Carlton 2.0?UlanBatori wrote: ...
Meanwhile, KSA is racing towards breakup and regime change. DT can see that plainly. ...
Re: Understanding the US- Again
Isn't economy already boosting? What about those tweets saying unemployment rate is lowest for 2 decades, highest employment stats for "minorities", many MNCs investing billions of dollahs in khanland?UlanBatori wrote:3. Economy needs a nice boost, and what better way than drive up stocks of mijjile-makers?
Re: Understanding the US- Again
Just keeping all informed...... Chacha guru is recruiting chelas .....
Dear Sir/Madam,
The Human Rights International Organization, invites you to participate in the 2018 educational symposium on Child sexual abuse, such as' Child Marriage, Human Trafficking, A Solution to Global Terrorism and Anti-Slavery.the educational symposium will be taking place from July 23rd to 27th 2018 @ the conference place in Texas, USA. The symposium meeting will contain various talks and mini workshops related to the issues of Challenges.
The organizing committee sponsors are responsible for visa processing to those who requires visa to the United States and provide free round-trip air tickets from your country to the United States and back to your country. Hotel Accommodation will be your responsible during your stay in United States. Interested participants are to contact the organization office directly by e-mail: (humanrightintorgs90@zoho.com) or (ihroinforegistrar@yandex.com)
We look forward to your honorable presence.
Thanks!
Dr. *************
Assistant Director - Program on Human Rights and the Global Economy.
Re: Understanding the US- Again
The jackals have started howling https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles ... an-freedom
Much will be written about what the U.S. and its allies should do on the nuclear file. Iran's leaders have made vague threats, and the West must prepare for the prospect of losing visibility into the country's declared nuclear infrastructure. That said, the most urgent task now for Trump is increasing the odds of success for Iran's democracy movement.
To understand why, consider the argument first put forward in 2005 by former CIA analyst and Iran specialist Kenneth Pollack. In his book, "Persian Puzzle," Pollack said there were two clocks for Iran: a countdown to nuclear weapons, and a countdown to democracy. He argued that the best guide for U.S. policy was to try to slow down the former to give more time for the latter.
Some steps are also listed, a helpful guide for beginners looking to fk a foreign countryIn an interview last week, Iranian dissident Heshmat Tabarzadi told me he would shed no tears for the nuclear bargain. "Obama and the Europeans sacrificed the human rights of the Iranian people in order to achieve more security for themselves," he said. "This was a blatant mistake. The point is that the Islamic regime, through its blackmailing via its nuclear programs, managed to buy time, receive dollars, crack down on the Iranian people, meddle in Syria and Yemen, and make the world a less safe place through its development of missiles."
First: Iranians will be the authors of their liberation. They will not succeed because of a policy decision in a foreign capital. Trump must refrain from choosing leaders, arming factions or invading Iran. The Iranian people must lead; the West must support.
Second: Solidarity with Iran's democratic resistance requires a credible channel of communication. That means disregarding outside groups that seek to impose their agenda on the movement, like the People's Mujahadin or U.S. groups that act as a de facto lobby for the regime like the National Iranian American Council. Instead the White House should seek out Iranian expatriates who want to support the movement in Iran but do not believe they can return to Iran as Ayatollah Khomeini did in 1979 to lead the revolution.
Third: Insofar as Trump wants to change the behavior of the Iranian regime, he needs to expand the list of demands beyond nuclear matters. That means tying specific sanctions to the release of political prisoners, such as Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, the two presidential candidates whose election was stolen in 2009 and who remain under house arrest to this day. Another idea would be to tie sanctions to the movement for a U.N.-monitored referendum to remove the office of the Supreme Leader from Iran's constitution.
Re: Understanding the US- Again
Two articles from NYT:
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/us/p ... v=top-news
NEWS ANALYSIS
Behind Trump’s Termination of Iran Deal Is Risky Bet That U.S. Can ‘Break the Regime’
WASHINGTON — For President Trump and two of the allies he values most — Israel and Saudi Arabia — the problem of the Iranian nuclear accord was not, primarily, about nuclear weapons. It was that the deal legitimized and normalized Iran’s clerical government, reopening it to the world economy with oil revenue that financed its adventures in Syria and Iraq, its missile program and its support of terrorist groups.
Now, by announcing on Tuesday that he is exiting the nuclear deal and will reimpose economic sanctions on Iran and companies around the world that do business with the country, Mr. Trump is engaged in a grand, highly risky experiment. Mr. Trump and his Middle East allies are betting they can cut Iran’s economic lifeline and thus “break the regime,” as one senior European official described the effort. In theory, America’s withdrawal could free Iran to produce as much nuclear material as it wants — as it was doing five years ago, when the world feared that it was headed toward a bomb.
But Mr. Trump’s team dismisses that risk: Iran does not have the economic strength to confront the United States, Israel and Saudi Arabia. And Iran knows that any move to produce a weapon would only provide Israel and the United States with a rationale for taking military action.
It is a brutally realpolitik approach that America’s allies in Europe have warned is a historic mistake, one that could lead to confrontation, and perhaps to war. And it is a clear example of Middle East brinkmanship that runs counter to what President Barack Obama intended when the nuclear deal was struck in July 2015.
.......
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/worl ... v=top-news
Iranians Fear Deeper Crisis as Trump Ends Nuclear Deal
By Thomas Erdbrink
May 8, 2018
TEHRAN — The sense of crisis in Iran runs deep and wide. The economy is in free fall. The currency is plummeting. Rising prices are squeezing city dwellers. A five-year drought is devastating the countryside. The pitched battle between political moderates and hard-liners is so perilous that there is even talk of a military takeover. Now, the lifeline offered by the 2015 nuclear deal, which was supposed to alleviate pressure on Iran’s economy and crack open the barriers to the West, is falling apart, too: President Trump announced Tuesday that he was withdrawing the United States from the agreement, which he called a “disastrous deal.” The chief loser will be the country’s moderate president, Hassan Rouhani, who now looks weakened, foolish and burned for the risk he took in dealing with the Americans.
Addressing the nation on live television after Mr. Trump’s announcement, Mr. Rouhani said Iran would take no immediate action to restart uranium enrichment and that it would negotiate with the other parties to the agreement, Britain, China, France, Germany and Russia.
If Iran’s interests can be secured under the agreement, “we will continue the process,” he said. “And if the deal is to be just a piece of paper, then our next steps will be clear.” If Mr. Rouhani is weakened, his opponents are likely to gain influence, analysts say.
“Trump has violated the international agreement by his predecessor, Obama, under the intrigues of the Israeli prime minister and Saudi Crown Prince Bin Salman,” said Ali Khorram, a former Iranian ambassador to China and an adviser to the nuclear negotiating team. “Now he has played in the hands of hard-liners in Iran.”
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Gautam
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/us/p ... v=top-news
NEWS ANALYSIS
Behind Trump’s Termination of Iran Deal Is Risky Bet That U.S. Can ‘Break the Regime’
WASHINGTON — For President Trump and two of the allies he values most — Israel and Saudi Arabia — the problem of the Iranian nuclear accord was not, primarily, about nuclear weapons. It was that the deal legitimized and normalized Iran’s clerical government, reopening it to the world economy with oil revenue that financed its adventures in Syria and Iraq, its missile program and its support of terrorist groups.
Now, by announcing on Tuesday that he is exiting the nuclear deal and will reimpose economic sanctions on Iran and companies around the world that do business with the country, Mr. Trump is engaged in a grand, highly risky experiment. Mr. Trump and his Middle East allies are betting they can cut Iran’s economic lifeline and thus “break the regime,” as one senior European official described the effort. In theory, America’s withdrawal could free Iran to produce as much nuclear material as it wants — as it was doing five years ago, when the world feared that it was headed toward a bomb.
But Mr. Trump’s team dismisses that risk: Iran does not have the economic strength to confront the United States, Israel and Saudi Arabia. And Iran knows that any move to produce a weapon would only provide Israel and the United States with a rationale for taking military action.
It is a brutally realpolitik approach that America’s allies in Europe have warned is a historic mistake, one that could lead to confrontation, and perhaps to war. And it is a clear example of Middle East brinkmanship that runs counter to what President Barack Obama intended when the nuclear deal was struck in July 2015.
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https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/worl ... v=top-news
Iranians Fear Deeper Crisis as Trump Ends Nuclear Deal
By Thomas Erdbrink
May 8, 2018
TEHRAN — The sense of crisis in Iran runs deep and wide. The economy is in free fall. The currency is plummeting. Rising prices are squeezing city dwellers. A five-year drought is devastating the countryside. The pitched battle between political moderates and hard-liners is so perilous that there is even talk of a military takeover. Now, the lifeline offered by the 2015 nuclear deal, which was supposed to alleviate pressure on Iran’s economy and crack open the barriers to the West, is falling apart, too: President Trump announced Tuesday that he was withdrawing the United States from the agreement, which he called a “disastrous deal.” The chief loser will be the country’s moderate president, Hassan Rouhani, who now looks weakened, foolish and burned for the risk he took in dealing with the Americans.
Addressing the nation on live television after Mr. Trump’s announcement, Mr. Rouhani said Iran would take no immediate action to restart uranium enrichment and that it would negotiate with the other parties to the agreement, Britain, China, France, Germany and Russia.
If Iran’s interests can be secured under the agreement, “we will continue the process,” he said. “And if the deal is to be just a piece of paper, then our next steps will be clear.” If Mr. Rouhani is weakened, his opponents are likely to gain influence, analysts say.
“Trump has violated the international agreement by his predecessor, Obama, under the intrigues of the Israeli prime minister and Saudi Crown Prince Bin Salman,” said Ali Khorram, a former Iranian ambassador to China and an adviser to the nuclear negotiating team. “Now he has played in the hands of hard-liners in Iran.”
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Gautam
Re: Understanding the US- Again
The Mohtarma did predict a stormy period!UlanBatori wrote: She had to be good, I didn't think a $4Billionaire would "not-sleep" with just any ol' White House Intern, hain? Apparently his lawyer may have paid out a lot to several others to keep mouth shut, well, afterwards.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/us/p ... ments.html
Firm Tied to Russian Oligarch Made Payments to Michael Cohen
By Mike McIntire, Ben Protess and Jim Rutenberg
May 8, 2018
A shell company that Michael D. Cohen used to pay hush money to a pxxxxgraphic film actress received payments totaling more than $1 million from an American company linked to a Russian oligarch and several corporations with business before the Trump administration, according to documents and interviews. Financial records reviewed by The New York Times show that Mr. Cohen, President Trump’s personal lawyer and longtime fixer, used the shell company, Essential Consultants L.L.C., for an array of business activities that went far beyond what was publicly known. Transactions adding up to at least $4.4 million flowed through Essential Consultants starting shortly before Mr. Trump was elected president and continuing to this January, the records show.
Among the previously unreported transactions were payments last year of about $500,000 from Columbus Nova, an investment firm in New York whose biggest client is a company controlled by Viktor Vekselberg, the Russian oligarch. A lawyer for Columbus Nova, in a statement on Tuesday, described the money as a consulting fee that had nothing to do with Mr. Vekselberg. Other transactions described in the financial records include hundreds of thousands of dollars Mr. Cohen received from Fortune 500 companies with business before the Trump administration, as well as smaller amounts he paid for luxury expenses like a Mercedes-Benz and private club dues.
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Gautam
All these bad news coming out on a Tuesday. Mr. Cohen should read Hanuman Chalisa on a regular basis.
Re: Understanding the US- Again
[Deleted. Unnecessary crass post.]
Last edited by ramana on 09 May 2018 19:55, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: ramana
Reason: ramana
Re: Understanding the US- Again
Who in the US wan't war or sanctions against Iran? Is it the American people, the Jews (Israel), the christian fundamentalists, deep state, neo cons or some one else?
The Trump republican base is generally happy with sending out the Mexicans, the H1Bs and trade tariffs against China and every one else they have a trade deficit against.
The Trump republican base is generally happy with sending out the Mexicans, the H1Bs and trade tariffs against China and every one else they have a trade deficit against.
Re: Understanding the US- Again
Strong statement from EU about sticking to the Iran deal. Can US sanctions be effective without participation from allies?
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Re: Understanding the US- Again
Excellent time to get good deal on oil and gas with Iran. They are going to be in real trouble. Will Bakistan join the party in invading Iran?
Re: Understanding the US- Again
It wont and chances are US will join back once Trump leaves office.hanumadu wrote: Can US sanctions be effective without participation from allies?
If Iran were to re-negotiate the deal what is the guarantee the next admin wont back out like Trump did ? After all every POTUS will think he can negotiate the best deal.
Trump is under influence of Israel lobby and he does what pleases Israel.
Re: Understanding the US- Again
<I>Can US sanctions be effective without participation from allies?</I>
Important question. The US will likely put sanctions on any corporation that has deals with Iran, and doesn't wind them down. How many corporations will risk access to the US market? Specifically, financial corporations will withdraw from doing business with Iran, which makes the logistics of payments much harder, even if one wants to do business with Iran.
Important question. The US will likely put sanctions on any corporation that has deals with Iran, and doesn't wind them down. How many corporations will risk access to the US market? Specifically, financial corporations will withdraw from doing business with Iran, which makes the logistics of payments much harder, even if one wants to do business with Iran.
Re: Understanding the US- Again
If the Europeans stay put then it is not an issue , They can always use Euro for payment and US wants to sanction Europen business for trading with Iran then good luck with that kind of trade war.
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Re: Understanding the US- Again
Who in the US looses the most by the reinstatement of Iranian sanctions? And why is Kerry in Palestine telling them not to respond to Trumps baits? Are these sanctions more to do with internal US affairs than anything else?
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Re: Understanding the US- Again
From Ulan Bator Neuj media:
UBCN projects that pretty soon, IranAir will become charter external customer for RongFright airliner "Chairman Mao" Model and PutinAir Model Lyudmila.
Munchkin said "Boeing and Airbus licenses are revoked". I assume that Airboos now need US-munchkin leesans to do bijnej with Eyeran? Airboos caught between rock and hard place. Talk big about LIBERTE! Egalite, Fraternite! and lose tanker bijnej in Yoo Ess, or GUBO to Stoopeed Americains and lose $39B in Eyeran.Boeing, Airbus Likely To Lose $39 Billion In Iranian Contracts.
UBCN projects that pretty soon, IranAir will become charter external customer for RongFright airliner "Chairman Mao" Model and PutinAir Model Lyudmila.
Re: Understanding the US- Again
most likely outcome will be a hike in oil prices... and the removal of all Iranian supplypanduranghari wrote:Who in the US looses the most by the reinstatement of Iranian sanctions? And why is Kerry in Palestine telling them not to respond to Trumps baits? Are these sanctions more to do with internal US affairs than anything else?
lots of people will benefit from that - US Shale wallahs, roosis and Wahhabis
of course if the oil then starts to glow in the dark... that's a whole different ball game
Re: Understanding the US- Again
UB I think you are right. In long run Israel looses. I mean in ten-fifteen years time.
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Re: Understanding the US- Again
The deep state never ending war neocons have struck again. With Bolton, Pompeo and their cronies will try to provoke Iran and foist yet another war. Throw the US into economic turmoil, cost the lives of thousands and then be elected out by 2020. In the interim these neocons will make their money and bow out for another decade.
Re: Understanding the US- Again
of course all this war talk has taken the spotlight of little old Michael Cohen... and his merry bank account
you'd have thought that getting rid of schneiderman alone would have sufficed, but I guess Bolton is the daddy now
bibi is in trouble with mossad... lets see how that pans out
also, its interesting to look at this problem from the Persian lens and consider the past 150 years of western interference in Tehran...
you'd have thought that getting rid of schneiderman alone would have sufficed, but I guess Bolton is the daddy now
bibi is in trouble with mossad... lets see how that pans out
also, its interesting to look at this problem from the Persian lens and consider the past 150 years of western interference in Tehran...
Re: Understanding the US- Again
In April 2018, there was a news that Eye-ran’s two airlines contracted with Rossiya to buy 40 passenger jets for $2bn. Eye-tan’s funds are still frojen, no?
Re: Understanding the US- Again
Opportunity for china to make deep inroads into iranian economy with cozy yuan denominated deals , c919 and a host of other proposals
What will dt threaten to do? Freeze chinese assets ha ha ha
What will dt threaten to do? Freeze chinese assets ha ha ha
Re: Understanding the US- Again
he will ask the Saudis, emiratis and qataris to buy more boeing and LM products