Su-30MKI: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014
Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014
Yeah fair enough. I hate to say but I pointed out this before that there were some lingering issues around LCA and Rafale as well.
French wanted to keep their cockpit completely OEM style and will similarly not allow their weapons to to interface left , right and centre.
Good this will spur us to become more Independent.
French wanted to keep their cockpit completely OEM style and will similarly not allow their weapons to to interface left , right and centre.
Good this will spur us to become more Independent.
Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014
Meteor was first fired from Gripen and is integrated with Eurofighter.And will be integrated in to F35. In fact the RFP for Meteor was created by RAF for Eurofighter. They will release the data if they want to.Austin wrote: These are bound to happen and is normal thing , No OEM will allow integration of system like BVR missile on other system not using its own radar and interface equipment , They will have to release sensitive information to interface the missile with the aircraft radar and datalink etc which they wont do. IAF tried to interface R-27 on M2K and failed for the same reason.
The French are trying to force us to buy more Rafale. This is why is we need to double down on SFDR. They will automatically offer us Meteor on SU30.
Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014
They are all NATO Country or pro-NATO countries and they share many things and have many things in commonnam wrote:Meteor was first fired from Gripen and is integrated with Eurofighter.And will be integrated in to F35. In fact the RFP for Meteor was created by RAF for Eurofighter. They will release the data if they want to.
I dont see any thing wrong in MBDA denying Meteor integrating with MKI and Tejas , They will need interface to either MKI BARS or Tejas 2032 radar something we wont give the other option is they provide us interface to Meteor system which they wont either , if they do it will tell us a lot about its ECM/ECCM etc the reverse it true as well.
If they can find a middle ground , may be lets see ....I dont think it has any thing to do with us buying more Rafale ...its about protecting their trade secrets.
Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014
It's more a tactic for us to buy more Rafales.Why offer the missile for other Rafale western competitors?. Of course the Ru antipathy exists, but the LCA? We should simply place an order for the extra 40+ Super Sukhois to be built in India at half the price of a Rafale, equipped with BMos , Astra and the latest Ru LR BVR AAMs and watch Dassault's and MBDA's dismay. With the joint work on various missiles between India and Russia , it won't be too far off before we have a desi AAM also at a much cheaper cost than the Meteor .
Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014
even when they are doing the integration ?? ..Austin wrote:They are all NATO Country or pro-NATO countries and they share many things and have many things in commonnam wrote:Meteor was first fired from Gripen and is integrated with Eurofighter.And will be integrated in to F35. In fact the RFP for Meteor was created by RAF for Eurofighter. They will release the data if they want to.
I dont see any thing wrong in MBDA denying Meteor integrating with MKI and Tejas , They will need interface to either MKI BARS or Tejas 2032 radar something we wont give the other option is they provide us interface to Meteor system which they wont either , if they do it will tell us a lot about its ECM/ECCM etc the reverse it true as well.
If they can find a middle ground , may be lets see ....I dont think it has any thing to do with us buying more Rafale ...its about protecting their trade secrets.
Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014
Why is not integration of meteor with su 30 actually an issue. I mean can't it be fitted with Astra and if it can use astra then in some time the SFDR can also be used by it.
Or what am I missing.
Or what am I missing.
Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014
It is for the first lot of the 140 that were being built in 2014. They were contracted for $40M/aircraft in 2006 but the cost has gone up by 80% by 2013. HAL had to sign many supplementary contracts for essential support equipment and infrastructure that were not covered in the initial contract.Austin wrote:Cost of MKI built by HAL is on record ,Parrikar put the figure in parliament at ~ $60 million in 2014 and Ajai Shukla quoting HAL latest figure is ~ $62 million
I have given you the official audited account of HAL by CAG; this report is presented to parliament. It does not get any more official than this.
Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014
MKI program has sunk cost too like TOT , building Infra for aircraft and engine facility at nagpur , Lic , MRO and upgrade facility by HAL
Roughly a back of paper would show that even at todays cost of $ 60 million per aircraft built from locally sourced raw materials and indiginous content up to 70 % link , At the higher side and with all TOT involved etc etc the cost comes to ~ $16 billion for 272 aircraft. Between 2014 and 2018 the servicibility went up from 55% to more than 66 %
Compare that to Rafale cost for 36 aircraft with no TOT or local production of any kind the cost in todays price is $9 billion
Roughly a back of paper would show that even at todays cost of $ 60 million per aircraft built from locally sourced raw materials and indiginous content up to 70 % link , At the higher side and with all TOT involved etc etc the cost comes to ~ $16 billion for 272 aircraft. Between 2014 and 2018 the servicibility went up from 55% to more than 66 %
Compare that to Rafale cost for 36 aircraft with no TOT or local production of any kind the cost in todays price is $9 billion
Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014
Sir Only 222 has been ordered. Cost escalation is 80% for the first lot. We are not talking 2018 dollars (aka Rafael) but dollars from 2006 onward. Last batch was contracted for $71M/aircraft (officially pegged at Rs51 to $1). The cost is after every bit of the infrastructure to make and operate is in place with fully depreciated mfg line and local sourcing.
Serviceability can be improved for pretty much any half decent machine if you put a shit load of spare, people and other resources to maintain it. But the facts remains that MKI has had and is still having premature part failures, design issues and a much higher spare consumption rate than what was promised by Russians in contract. It is Indian money and people who are improving the serviceability not the Russians or their design.
As for as local production and technology transfer goes, I am sure you haven't gone through the CAG report. If you have you would know the bitter truth. ROE didn't provide technical documentation for years which caused most of the aircrafts in Phase 2 and 3 to be bought directly from ROE in kit forms. HAL paid liquidated damages for this delay by ROE to IAF. CAG clearly mentions that technology absorption and local sourcing both suffered terribly and IAF/MoD have no leaver over ROE.
An MKI as is, would cost $100M in 2018 dollars and upgraded one would be more expensive than Rafael at $110M in capital cost. The cost went up by 50% in 5 years ($47M in 2007 to $71M in 2012) so if I project linearly from 2012 to 2017 the cost comes out to $106M/aircraft.
MKI is not cheap in capital cost or operating cost.
Although it was one heck of deal at the time and aircraft is pretty darn good but we have enough of them now. Another 40 won't hurt either but only if IAF has extra money.
If Russians could make a better machine at a cheaper cost than western countries, we would be living in a very different world.
Serviceability can be improved for pretty much any half decent machine if you put a shit load of spare, people and other resources to maintain it. But the facts remains that MKI has had and is still having premature part failures, design issues and a much higher spare consumption rate than what was promised by Russians in contract. It is Indian money and people who are improving the serviceability not the Russians or their design.
As for as local production and technology transfer goes, I am sure you haven't gone through the CAG report. If you have you would know the bitter truth. ROE didn't provide technical documentation for years which caused most of the aircrafts in Phase 2 and 3 to be bought directly from ROE in kit forms. HAL paid liquidated damages for this delay by ROE to IAF. CAG clearly mentions that technology absorption and local sourcing both suffered terribly and IAF/MoD have no leaver over ROE.
An MKI as is, would cost $100M in 2018 dollars and upgraded one would be more expensive than Rafael at $110M in capital cost. The cost went up by 50% in 5 years ($47M in 2007 to $71M in 2012) so if I project linearly from 2012 to 2017 the cost comes out to $106M/aircraft.
MKI is not cheap in capital cost or operating cost.
Although it was one heck of deal at the time and aircraft is pretty darn good but we have enough of them now. Another 40 won't hurt either but only if IAF has extra money.
If Russians could make a better machine at a cheaper cost than western countries, we would be living in a very different world.
Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014
Parrikar is on record in Parliament that MKI cost built in India cost $60 million http://www.royalbulletin.in/you-get-a-s ... -parrikar/
Giving an idea of Rafale's price, the Defence Minister, in an interview to All India Radio, said one fighter may cost India in the range of Rs 700 to 750 crore while a Su-30 cost is about Rs 475 crore, Compare to these planes India's Tejas is in the range of Rs 200 to 250 crore only. "
http://www.royalbulletin.in/you-get-a-s ... -parrikar/
Ajai Shukla quoting HAL Chairman quotes today prices at $63 million this is todays dollar price .https://www.business-standard.com/artic ... 055_1.html
Rupee has weekned since 2005 so cost versus USD will only increase.
Giving an idea of Rafale's price, the Defence Minister, in an interview to All India Radio, said one fighter may cost India in the range of Rs 700 to 750 crore while a Su-30 cost is about Rs 475 crore, Compare to these planes India's Tejas is in the range of Rs 200 to 250 crore only. "
http://www.royalbulletin.in/you-get-a-s ... -parrikar/
Ajai Shukla quoting HAL Chairman quotes today prices at $63 million this is todays dollar price .https://www.business-standard.com/artic ... 055_1.html
Rupee has weekned since 2005 so cost versus USD will only increase.
Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014
India to send Sukhois and C-17 aircraft for multi-lateral 'Pitch Black' exercise in Australia
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 419969.cms
India may have rebuffed Australia’s proposal to join the annual trilateral Malabar naval wargames it holds with the US and Japan but will be dispatching four Sukhoi-30MKI fighter jets and a C-17 Globemaster-III strategic airlift aircraft to the country to participate in the multi-lateral “Pitch Black” air combat exercise. This will be India’s first participation in the Black Pitch exercise hosted by Australia once every two years, which usually includes the US, Canada, France, Germany, Indonesia, Netherlands, New Zealand, Singapore and Thailand, among other countries. The exercise, which will witness participation by over 100 aircraft, will be held at the Royal Australian Air Force bases at Tindal and Darwin from July 27 to August 17 this year. It will be IAF’s third multi-lateral exercise in the last three years, after the Red Flag exercise in the US in April-May 2016 and the Blue Flag wargames at Israel in November 2017. “With a range of realistic threats that can be found in modern day air warfare, Pitch Black is the biggest air combat exercise in the southern hemisphere. Australia had first invited the IAF for the exercise in 2016 but it did not work out. This time, it’s all systems go,” said an official. Officials said the two countries agree on the importance of maintaining maritime freedom of navigation in international waters, right of passage and overflight, unimpeded commerce and access to resources in accordance with the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, in the backdrop of China’s aggressive moves in the South China Sea and the Indo-Pacific region in general. But India, for now, has opposed the inclusion of Australia in the tri-lateral Malabar exercise. As earlier reported by TOI, warships, submarines and aircraft from India, the US and Japan are now all set to kick off another edition of the top-notch Malabar exercise off Guam in the Western Pacific from June 6 to 15. China, incidentally, had lodged a strong protest against the Malabar exercise in the Bay of Bengal in 2007 when it had been expanded to include Australia and Singapore as well.
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 419969.cms
India may have rebuffed Australia’s proposal to join the annual trilateral Malabar naval wargames it holds with the US and Japan but will be dispatching four Sukhoi-30MKI fighter jets and a C-17 Globemaster-III strategic airlift aircraft to the country to participate in the multi-lateral “Pitch Black” air combat exercise. This will be India’s first participation in the Black Pitch exercise hosted by Australia once every two years, which usually includes the US, Canada, France, Germany, Indonesia, Netherlands, New Zealand, Singapore and Thailand, among other countries. The exercise, which will witness participation by over 100 aircraft, will be held at the Royal Australian Air Force bases at Tindal and Darwin from July 27 to August 17 this year. It will be IAF’s third multi-lateral exercise in the last three years, after the Red Flag exercise in the US in April-May 2016 and the Blue Flag wargames at Israel in November 2017. “With a range of realistic threats that can be found in modern day air warfare, Pitch Black is the biggest air combat exercise in the southern hemisphere. Australia had first invited the IAF for the exercise in 2016 but it did not work out. This time, it’s all systems go,” said an official. Officials said the two countries agree on the importance of maintaining maritime freedom of navigation in international waters, right of passage and overflight, unimpeded commerce and access to resources in accordance with the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, in the backdrop of China’s aggressive moves in the South China Sea and the Indo-Pacific region in general. But India, for now, has opposed the inclusion of Australia in the tri-lateral Malabar exercise. As earlier reported by TOI, warships, submarines and aircraft from India, the US and Japan are now all set to kick off another edition of the top-notch Malabar exercise off Guam in the Western Pacific from June 6 to 15. China, incidentally, had lodged a strong protest against the Malabar exercise in the Bay of Bengal in 2007 when it had been expanded to include Australia and Singapore as well.
Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014
One more time. Your numbers are correct but they are in a different time/year. Today a fresh contract for MKI would cost a a lot more than what was the cost in 2006 for airplanes being manufactured now. That is why we do not see IAF wanting another 40 MKI, they want Rafael, F16, F18 and even GripenAustin wrote:Parrikar is on record in Parliament that MKI cost built in India cost $60 million http://www.royalbulletin.in/you-get-a-s ... -parrikar/
Giving an idea of Rafale's price, the Defence Minister, in an interview to All India Radio, said one fighter may cost India in the range of Rs 700 to 750 crore while a Su-30 cost is about Rs 475 crore, Compare to these planes India's Tejas is in the range of Rs 200 to 250 crore only. "
http://www.royalbulletin.in/you-get-a-s ... -parrikar/
Ajai Shukla quoting HAL Chairman quotes today prices at $63 million this is todays dollar price .https://www.business-standard.com/artic ... 055_1.html
Rupee has weekned since 2005 so cost versus USD will only increase.
Su30MKI - Rs 450 corer = $62 million at todays rate of Rs68 to a dollar. But the contracted price for dollar was fixed at Rs50.5 to a dollar at 2006 rates. If I use the contract number I get $90M for the MKI cost.
You can not buy an MKI today from Russia or HAL for Rs 450 corer. This cost is coming from the old contract. It may cost more than the Rafael in 2019
Rafael at Rs 750 corer = $110 M in 2018 prices.
Intrinsic values of the money needs to be calculated using one of the discounted net current value models, if you are comparing contracts signed 15 years apart.
Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014
A few corrections:
1. I think you mean Rafale, not Rafael.
2. Su-30 acquisition costs being as high as Rafales: not possible.
3. There are a lot of savings when you can interoperate between existing aicraft, and nearly 300 of them.
In short, there are benefits of the Rafale acquisition (not at 36 though), but financial is not one of it. Every evaluation done among the eurocanards, american, russian ware have been unanimous on that.
1. I think you mean Rafale, not Rafael.
2. Su-30 acquisition costs being as high as Rafales: not possible.
3. There are a lot of savings when you can interoperate between existing aicraft, and nearly 300 of them.
In short, there are benefits of the Rafale acquisition (not at 36 though), but financial is not one of it. Every evaluation done among the eurocanards, american, russian ware have been unanimous on that.
Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014
I see your point but we have not ordered 272 MKI the number from official sources indicates only 222 aircrafts ordered.
For cost will see if/when a new contract is signed.
Agree with the point # 3
I firmly believe that Rafale is a better financial decision than any new Russian purchase we may make in 2018 including new Su30 MkI.
We played this game before, when IAF bought cheaper mig29s over unaffordable Mirage 2ks.
For cost will see if/when a new contract is signed.
Agree with the point # 3
I firmly believe that Rafale is a better financial decision than any new Russian purchase we may make in 2018 including new Su30 MkI.
We played this game before, when IAF bought cheaper mig29s over unaffordable Mirage 2ks.
Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014
How is that possible when all stats show that a Rafale is at least twice, if not almost thrice the cost of an MKI which is now over 60% made from desi raw material?
I can understand the preference of a single- seat fighter as I've often pointed out the huge allied cost of supporting a second pilot and family for their lifetime.
But even here there are far cheaper options which will also give us greater numbers if the Gripen, MIG-29/35 or dredging the bucket even legacy F-16s are bought.If the LCA is given a booster motor, with a 3rd. prod. line in the pvt. sector or at an IAF BRD base, we could arguably have between 36- 48 aircraft produced annually! Since all our legacy birds and the LCA will carry uniform ordnance other than BMos, the cost-effectiveness of the various options far outweigh any further Rafale purchase.
The current political scenario with public outcry over fuel costs, food costs, rising interest rates for home loans with reduced bank interest rates for deposits, farmers demanding loan waivers en masse, has put the govt. into an acute financial spin.There will be no deal in 2019 or even 2020 , with a win for the NDA with a much reduced majority being predicted as the best scenario and the nightmare worst scenario of the joint Oppn. omnibus with at least 10 drivers and 10 steering wheels, already ( the Congress) condemning the ultra- expensive deal.
The least controversial decision that may take place is for an upgrade of large numbers of MKIs to the so-called SS std. and orders of around 2 more sqds. to keep numbers happy. My choice would be for both limited extra SS MKIs and a third line of LCAs.At the same time we could pick up any used M2Ks and MIG-29s upgrade them too at UAE upgrade costs. M2K-9s are being upgraded for the UAE at an absurdly low cost of only $350M for a deep upgrade ( read the reports) of 62 aircraft when compared with our $50M price per unit.This works out to just around just $ 6M a pop!
I can understand the preference of a single- seat fighter as I've often pointed out the huge allied cost of supporting a second pilot and family for their lifetime.
But even here there are far cheaper options which will also give us greater numbers if the Gripen, MIG-29/35 or dredging the bucket even legacy F-16s are bought.If the LCA is given a booster motor, with a 3rd. prod. line in the pvt. sector or at an IAF BRD base, we could arguably have between 36- 48 aircraft produced annually! Since all our legacy birds and the LCA will carry uniform ordnance other than BMos, the cost-effectiveness of the various options far outweigh any further Rafale purchase.
The current political scenario with public outcry over fuel costs, food costs, rising interest rates for home loans with reduced bank interest rates for deposits, farmers demanding loan waivers en masse, has put the govt. into an acute financial spin.There will be no deal in 2019 or even 2020 , with a win for the NDA with a much reduced majority being predicted as the best scenario and the nightmare worst scenario of the joint Oppn. omnibus with at least 10 drivers and 10 steering wheels, already ( the Congress) condemning the ultra- expensive deal.
The least controversial decision that may take place is for an upgrade of large numbers of MKIs to the so-called SS std. and orders of around 2 more sqds. to keep numbers happy. My choice would be for both limited extra SS MKIs and a third line of LCAs.At the same time we could pick up any used M2Ks and MIG-29s upgrade them too at UAE upgrade costs. M2K-9s are being upgraded for the UAE at an absurdly low cost of only $350M for a deep upgrade ( read the reports) of 62 aircraft when compared with our $50M price per unit.This works out to just around just $ 6M a pop!
Last edited by Philip on 05 Jun 2018 08:48, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014
Kindly show me any mod figure that says mki will cost as you put it fro any year , I mean official mod figure like I gave mki cost from Parrikar in 2015 and Hal price today , all figures I have seen in interviews with Hal puts the figure between 40 and 62 million USD progressively increasing over years , I am talking of unit cost
Rafale is worst deal in terms of price we got nothing neither technology or any facility to build or upgrade at Hal , all we got is offset that we actually paid for which we could have got from any vendor had we paid the same amount , in fact it’s a rip off and long term maintenance issue to operate such small expensive squadron
IAF has not rejected any offer to build more mki it is put by Hal for iaf consideration which iaf has yet to make a decision ,the logistics of operating 300 plus is far better than operating 3 dozen
Rafale is worst deal in terms of price we got nothing neither technology or any facility to build or upgrade at Hal , all we got is offset that we actually paid for which we could have got from any vendor had we paid the same amount , in fact it’s a rip off and long term maintenance issue to operate such small expensive squadron
IAF has not rejected any offer to build more mki it is put by Hal for iaf consideration which iaf has yet to make a decision ,the logistics of operating 300 plus is far better than operating 3 dozen
Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014
36 is too low a number to have for any airforce, unless we are talking about B2 types. Even the US has 200 odd F 15E and 200 odd F 15SE. We will have 270 MKIs shortly, we need to ramp up Rafale numbers.
Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014
Rafales will be used for flypasts, IAF exercises and as dedicated N- delivery birds replacing the M2Ks.We may buy a few more for war reserves, but as Austin has pointed out there is nothing in the deal that supports either indigenisation or a quantum leap in technology like a 5th-gen bird brings with it.The GOI / NDA should've swiftly after arriving in power, sealed the original deal for 120 and the localisation that came with it.It could've been done during their first year in office.
Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014
Austin, the only important offset is kaveri engine with m88 LP compressor, m88 single crystal tech, I think price paid includes that.
Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014
IAF has rejected the initial DRDO-Snecma proposal on Kaveri since what ever they offered was not considered adequate , Not sure what the new proposal for Kaveri is but yes this is part of offset and part of money we paid for .habal wrote:Austin, the only important offset is kaveri engine with m88 LP compressor, m88 single crystal tech, I think price paid includes that.
They could have rather opted for tendering route involving GE,Snecma , Eurojet and Klimov route for the same money and see what is the best bang for buck in terms of TOT and Money , be that it may be we have yet to see the newest proposal and if IAF will accept it.
Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014
Its more of a political decision with payments exceeding beyond money not all can be written on paper. I don't think anyone would respond to such RFI. GTRE issued RFI for co-development of new Fan couple of years ago. I have not seen anything related to any response that they got for it. GTRE has talked to every damn OEM on earth over the years.Austin wrote:IAF has rejected the initial DRDO-Snecma proposal on Kaveri since what ever they offered was not considered adequate , Not sure what the new proposal for Kaveri is but yes this is part of offset and part of money we paid for .habal wrote:Austin, the only important offset is kaveri engine with m88 LP compressor, m88 single crystal tech, I think price paid includes that.
They could have rather opted for tendering route involving GE,Snecma , Eurojet and Klimov route for the same money and see what is the best bang for buck in terms of TOT and Money , be that it may be we have yet to see the newest proposal and if IAF will accept it.
Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014
The Kaveri is a disaster due to GTRE , They should have given this to joint team of IAF/HAL to develop this engine , Now their expectations is Snecma will come and some how fix the Kaveri for them...Even the lesser task of Naval Kaveri is not projected for any new ships in the work and the prototype is just working on single ship years.
Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014
Rafale does not cost twice or thrice of Su-30 MKI as per official numbers. It does, if you compare a 2006 negotiated price of MKI with a 2018 price of Rafale. A Mig 21 sol for less than Rs 2 corer and Mirage mk2 cost was less than $10M IIRC. Can you make a Mig 21 or Mirage 2K for these costs in 2018? Same applies for Su 30 MKI, the aircrafts that are being manufactured in 2018 on a contract negotiated price of 2006, give a false sense that MKI is so cheap. We have been paying dollars for this deal since 1996, it is 2018 today, 22 years after we are still paying.Philip wrote:How is that possible when all stats show that a Rafale is at least twice, if not almost thrice the cost of an MKI which is now over 60% made from desi raw material?
I can understand the preference of a single- seat fighter as I've often pointed out the huge allied cost of supporting a second pilot and family for their lifetime.
But even here there are far cheaper options which will also give us greater numbers if the Gripen, MIG-29/35 or dredging the bucket even legacy F-16s are bought.If the LCA is given a booster motor, with a 3rd. prod. line in the pvt. sector or at an IAF BRD base, we could arguably have between 36- 48 aircraft produced annually! Since all our legacy birds and the LCA will carry uniform ordnance other than BMos, the cost-effectiveness of the various options far outweigh any further Rafale purchase.
The current political scenario with public outcry over fuel costs, food costs, rising interest rates for home loans with reduced bank interest rates for deposits, farmers demanding loan waivers en masse, has put the govt. into an acute financial spin.There will be no deal in 2019 or even 2020 , with a win for the NDA with a much reduced majority being predicted as the best scenario and the nightmare worst scenario of the joint Oppn. omnibus with at least 10 drivers and 10 steering wheels, already ( the Congress) condemning the ultra- expensive deal.
The least controversial decision that may take place is for an upgrade of large numbers of MKIs to the so-called SS std. and orders of around 2 more sqds. to keep numbers happy. My choice would be for both limited extra SS MKIs and a third line of LCAs.At the same time we could pick up any used M2Ks and MIG-29s upgrade them too at UAE upgrade costs. M2K-9s are being upgraded for the UAE at an absurdly low cost of only $350M for a deep upgrade ( read the reports) of 62 aircraft when compared with our $50M price per unit.This works out to just around just $ 6M a pop!
An example would be Kirvak class frigates- First 3 were bought for $1 Billion and next three for $3 Billion or so? If India signs a new contract for MKI with Russia it'll be substantially higher than what we paid earlier. You could see the price difference between 2006 contract signed for ~$45 million/aircraft (actually paid $62 M) and 2012 contract was signed for $72M/aircraft (CAG numbers using the exchange rate at the contract signing date). So in 2006 it was $45M/MKI, 2012 it went to $72M/MKI (60% increase), what would it be in 2018- if it is another 60% increase than it'll be $115M. There you go more than Rafale. The truth is neither you nor I know what it'll cost to buy an MKI in 2018 so claims of it being cheaper or expensive are just guesstimates and personal biases at best.
Su-30 MKI is not made with desi raw material, read the CAG report. All important raw material and metal alloys need to be bought from Russia that than get machined to the prints supplied by Russia. The ones that can be made from Indian raw materials are missing technical prints or of low technology and low value that no one wants to make.
What does cheap mean? Inferior product that costs little like Chinese junk?
Does greater number is the most important goal? Why not start building WW2 type monoplanes they only cost couple of corers at most?
The goal is to buy a certain combat capability to meet operational requirements of IAF. Quantity is one of the capabilities IAF is after but you pick it up every other post because it fits your Russian preference.
I am all for MKI upgrades, OK if IAF asks for another 40 (regardless of the cost factor) but we got to stop with this 1 rafale = 3 MKI BS.
Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014
How can you say that? Read the CAG report to see what we got out of Su-30MKI deal inntechnology or industrial offsets. nothing really. We would have got a lot more than what we got from MKI deal if we have bought 222 Rafale, I guess.Austin wrote:Kindly show me any mod figure that says mki will cost as you put it fro any year , I mean official mod figure like I gave mki cost from Parrikar in 2015 and Hal price today , all figures I have seen in interviews with Hal puts the figure between 40 and 62 million USD progressively increasing over years , I am talking of unit cost
Rafale is worst deal in terms of price we got nothing neither technology or any facility to build or upgrade at Hal , all we got is offset that we actually paid for which we could have got from any vendor had we paid the same amount , in fact it’s a rip off and long term maintenance issue to operate such small expensive squadron
IAF has not rejected any offer to build more mki it is put by Hal for iaf consideration which iaf has yet to make a decision ,the logistics of operating 300 plus is far better than operating 3 dozen
Wait till all the details of offset comes out, than we'll compare. Right now the comparison is between nothing much from MKI to not known for Rafale.
Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014
If we havent got any industrial deal or offset then we wouldnt be making MKI with 70 % indiginous content and with indian sourced raw materials , To make these materials in the right composition with the right materials with the exact specification you need data from OEM and TOT without that you cant even make a sheet of metal that you wont know how it works well in flight. We even make the engines components and the SCB for AL-31FP
MKI program has the best offset till date and best value for money , Rafale does not give any thing that we didnt pay for and what we paid for the aircraft is exorbitant so much so that Parrikar had to say what I posted.
If CAG report is a snap shot of some data for previous year and if I have to take CAG report as Truth that did not get fixed then it has a lot to say of our own program and on Navy and other programs you name it , The Auditor report is taken by MOD to fix what has been found , So if CAG pointed out some thing it would have been fixed by MOD in the past 5 years and something we will come to know when the next CAG report is placed in parliament.
In the end its your word versus what MOD Parikar said in Parliament and what HAL Chief said about MKI cost in recent Ajai Shukla report and I would rather believe in what is official then hearsay
MKI program has the best offset till date and best value for money , Rafale does not give any thing that we didnt pay for and what we paid for the aircraft is exorbitant so much so that Parrikar had to say what I posted.
If CAG report is a snap shot of some data for previous year and if I have to take CAG report as Truth that did not get fixed then it has a lot to say of our own program and on Navy and other programs you name it , The Auditor report is taken by MOD to fix what has been found , So if CAG pointed out some thing it would have been fixed by MOD in the past 5 years and something we will come to know when the next CAG report is placed in parliament.
In the end its your word versus what MOD Parikar said in Parliament and what HAL Chief said about MKI cost in recent Ajai Shukla report and I would rather believe in what is official then hearsay
Last edited by Austin on 06 Jun 2018 09:56, edited 2 times in total.
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- BRF Oldie
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Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014
My take is that MKI deal might seem not so great in hindsight and in light of all the tot bakwas that western manufacturers have been marketing for mrca. But in reality little is offered and often at bank breaking prices.
The MKI is a damn good acquisition and gi es superb baNG for the buck, st Anthony was on record in Parliament saying entire MKI procurement cost was INR 55000 crores. That is bloody good no matter how you look at it.
Having said that, Could it have been better? Absolutely. There were plenty of missed opportunities from Hal iirc which did not go in for more tot on the al 31, which was on offer in those days.
This doesn't mean that Rafale deal doesn't have merit. I think it is IAF's silverbullet solution for now. The F35 would have been better but in light of caatsa, perhaps not.
The MKI is a damn good acquisition and gi es superb baNG for the buck, st Anthony was on record in Parliament saying entire MKI procurement cost was INR 55000 crores. That is bloody good no matter how you look at it.
Having said that, Could it have been better? Absolutely. There were plenty of missed opportunities from Hal iirc which did not go in for more tot on the al 31, which was on offer in those days.
This doesn't mean that Rafale deal doesn't have merit. I think it is IAF's silverbullet solution for now. The F35 would have been better but in light of caatsa, perhaps not.
Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014
CM here is cost of MKI since 2010 from HAL Chief interview to Ajai Shukla few weeks back
http://ajaishukla.blogspot.com/2018/05/ ... t-one.html
425 Crore has been a steady price of MKI since HAL delivered it since 2010 , So even after 8 years HAL can deliver MKI at 425 crore which is $62 million !
Considering Military Inflation Gallops, its amazing HAL can deliver MKI at the same steady cost of Rs 425 Crore since 2010 and even promises to deliver next 40 at the same cost !
http://ajaishukla.blogspot.com/2018/05/ ... t-one.html
HAL chairman, T Suvarna Raju, said: “We will offer a very competitive price. Since 2010, we have been delivering the Su-30 at Rs 425 crore. We can deliver another three squadrons at that same price.”
“HAL has already absorbed the technology for building and supporting the Su-30. Now, the aim is to build those three new squadrons as quickly, and as cheaply, as possible”, said Raju.
425 Crore has been a steady price of MKI since HAL delivered it since 2010 , So even after 8 years HAL can deliver MKI at 425 crore which is $62 million !
Considering Military Inflation Gallops, its amazing HAL can deliver MKI at the same steady cost of Rs 425 Crore since 2010 and even promises to deliver next 40 at the same cost !
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Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014
^good data point Austin...
Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014
That is a great statement about HAL's MKI programme.Contrast that with the LCA programme, only now turning the corner , but MK-2 yet to arrive,which has so much of western input.If US sanctions are imposed over CAASTA, we'll have no alternative but to acquire more locally built MKIs.
Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014
Considering that we practically bailed out Russian Aviation MIC, Sukhoi with Su30 and MiG with MiG29, that too with alacrity never seen otherwise, we should have been making copies of those planes as we please and even exporting them by now. Our politicians and babus were never interested in negotiating contracts for the good of the Nation.Cain Marko wrote:
Having said that, Could it have been better? Absolutely.
Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014
We never made copies of any thing Western or Eastern systems we produced till date be that be the old Cheetha/Chetak or Jags or 21/27 or any other types , We Lic Produced them paying the royalty and lic fees
Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014
I meant we should have negotiated to acquire rights to modify and produce as we please in return of the bailing out. Instead we ended up paying 3x-4x for raw materials and begging for spares eternally. And MiG29 turned out to be duds, we are stuck with no avction from OEM.Austin wrote:We never made copies of any thing Western or Eastern systems we produced till date be that be the old Cheetha/Chetak or Jags or 21/27 or any other types , We Lic Produced them paying the royalty and lic fees
Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014
We never modified even the Mig-21 that HAL lic manufactured for 40 years so doing the same for any thing else is beyond scope . The 29 are pretty fine now having as much as uptime as M2K is I am told , 29's had issues in mid 90's but later it got sorted out and with UPG it got better.JayS wrote: I meant we should have negotiated to acquire rights to modify and produce as we please in return of the bailing out. Instead we ended up paying 3x-4x for raw materials and begging for spares eternally. And MiG29 turned out to be duds, we are stuck with no avction from OEM.
Even producing as we please cost money and needs pilots logistic training infra etc assuming even if we get those kind of rights which no OEM will give and neither it would be financially viable unless its a 21 or Gnat not to mention we have serious issues of shortage of pilots
Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014
May be to Mikoyan but China has given far more to Sukhoi a lot if it is under the table for blueprints and tech transfer.JayS wrote:Considering that we practically bailed out Russian Aviation MIC, Sukhoi with Su30 and MiG with MiG29, that too with alacrity never seen otherwise, we should have been making copies of those planes as we please and even exporting them by now. Our politicians and babus were never interested in negotiating contracts for the good of the Nation.Cain Marko wrote:
Having said that, Could it have been better? Absolutely.
Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014
China has been using the AL31F as a blanket blueprint for domestic turbofan development. Their transfer of tech was far deeper than ours. I am sure the russians would have offered the same to us too in the 90s when they were up against it, but we probably refused pretending fake modesty and giving guns and butter excuse.
Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014
The Chinese are good at reverse engineering the Harbin Z-9, a copy of the French AS.365 Dauphin and Z-10 is exact replica of U.S. Sikorsky UH-60 Black Hawk and Apache lookalike there are many systems that look like Western Russian system
Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014
I highly doubt these are reverse engineering as no way you can replicate cast/ forgings, dyes , software etc used in the manufacturing. even Tu-4 was never an exact copy of the B-29. These are licensed tech transfers.
Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014
Chinese hired the jobless Russian Scientists and engineers en masse (a number 5000 comes to my mind that I think I saw somewhere) who were available at ~$1500 per month in early 1990s. The offer was for us as well, but we could not capitalize. Technology is not a process or a document or material or machinery, Technology is People. China captured precisely that (and other things too). We kept on begging for the former.
I have heard/read credible accounts of how some babu/s stopped hiring Russian Scientists because the asked pay was above his/their pay scale. The figure of $1500/USD is from one of the former GTRE director's article.
I have heard/read credible accounts of how some babu/s stopped hiring Russian Scientists because the asked pay was above his/their pay scale. The figure of $1500/USD is from one of the former GTRE director's article.
Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014
Did we have the resources to hire so many Russian scientists? Do recall we were staring at a financial abyss ourselves in early 90s.
Re: Su-30: News and Discussion - August 9, 2014
I met an admiral few year back and he told us that the Chinese and Indian delegation were in the same hotel in the 90's the Russians were willing to sell the Indian latest technology but we did not have the cash and the babus wont allow the Defence team to negotiate but the Chinese were willing to pay any amount of cash but the russians did not trust the Chinese , the rest is history