Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

[Suraj]

US economy to grow faster than China, but India will take bigger slice; 2030 GDP forecasts throw up a surprise
Original OECD paper
Summary:
* Around 2025-2030, India's annual growth in GDP - not percentage rate but raw economic output in $ value - exceeds that of entire OECD.
* Around 2035, India's annual growth in GDP exceeds that of China.

Despite rupee hitting record low, Indian bond market sees biggest inflows in seven months

Global investors in August bought the most Indian bonds in seven months, showing signs of returning to a market they’d abandoned for the better part of 2018. The inflow brought no joy for currency traders as the rupee hit multiple new lows in the past two weeks.

Funds plowed $403 million into rupee-denominated bonds after $105 million in July, amid optimism the worst of the yearlong rout that sent the local benchmark yield to its highest since 2014 is over. The streak needs to extend to chip away at this year’s outflow of $5.6 billion that has contributed to the currency weakness.

A rout in emerging-market currencies, elevated oil prices and fears of fiscal slippage before a general election next year have combined to make the rupee Asia’s worst performer in 2018. The currency capped its biggest monthly retreat in three years in August, falling past an unprecedented 71 per dollar on Friday.

[Singha]

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/96 ... hic-crisis

dragon is taking remedial measures. but high cost of urban life is gating families below replacement rate of 1.3/woman even in India ...

[A Nandy]

With tough new rules, India seeks to push back on tech ‘colonisation’ by Internet giants

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/sm ... e=smallbiz

“We don’t want to build walls, but at the same time, we explicitly recognize and appreciate that data is a strategic asset,” said Aruna Sundararajan, the nation’s secretary of telecommunications, who has been deeply involved in the policy discussions. “There is a strong feeling in many quarters that the reason that India has not been able to develop a Tencent or Baidu or Alibaba is because we have not been nuanced in our policies.”

Officials were furious after the Cambridge Analytica scandal this year revealed that Facebook had shared private information on 87 million users, including 560,000 Indians, with a political consulting firm that had sought to influence Indian elections.

[A_Gupta]

India's services sector activity fell in August from July's 21-month peak as new business orders declined, following which firms raised their staffing levels at a modest pace amid rising input cost inflation, a monthly survey said on Wednesday.
The seasonally adjusted Nikkei India Services Business Activity Index, fell from July's peak of 54.2 to 51.5 in August owing to weakest growth in new work in three months.
...
...
Meanwhile, business confidence remained positive in August and was driven by upbeat forecasts of sales, an expected improvement in demand and promotional activities, the survey noted.
"On another positive note, business sentiment towards the 12-month outlook strengthened to a three-month high, with stronger confidence seen among service providers," Dodhia said.

https://www.businesstoday.in/current/ec ... 82046.html

IMO, India needs some luck on factors outside of its control - global oil prices, sanctions on Iran & their impact on world oil output and prices, US Fed. unwinding the position it took during "quantitative easing", contagion from the Turkish economic situation, etc. - in order to accelerate instead of coast along economically speaking.

[Gus]

Where's the bottom on INR?

need to exchange a few Ks.

[Suraj]

If we all knew how to time the market...

[pankajs]

https://twitter.com/pankajtibre/status/ ... 5108852736

Pankaj Tibrewal @pankajtibre [Senior Vice President & Equity Fund Manager at Kotak Mutual Fund.]

India’s payment landscape is changing at a rapid pace. UPIs Aug18 volume was Rs540bn(4x over Dec17). UPI handled 312mn transaction(116/second) in Aug. UPI made up 30% of retail digital transactions vs 5% a year back. UPI transaction value in Aug annualised @ USD90b vs USD17b in FY18
8:18 PM - 5 Sep 2018 from Mumbai, India

[uskumar]

Why the RCEP trade deal could hit India's agriculture, manufacturing sectors
i know the article is being written by a JNU prof., but many of the issues he has flagged are correct. Already Samsung is closing it's TV manufacturing unit in India in anticipation of RCEP. Surely people above realise only thing we are exporting due to free trade agreements are jobs

[achoudhury]

Policymakers need to carefully watch out for Rupee Depreciation as well as fuel prices. We are a consuming nation and both this factor have cascading effect on input prices and will hurt growth beyond a certain point. I hope policymakers have good handle on elasticity of demand vs rise in input prices factored in. While rupee depreciation was needed to regain competitiveness against basket of other competing currencies but a free fall due to market operators need to be addressed. Similarly, fuel prices should not be allowed to go beyond a certain point. Will have cascading impact on demand, inflation and consequently on growth. This is the first time Modi govt is facing external headwinds beyond its control and its responses will be keenly watched. I am not even delving in political fall outs.

[A_Gupta]

Any comments on this article?
https://www.livemint.com/Money/lzKUNMmZ ... -curr.html
"A whiff of danger in the financial markets
If we have higher GDP growth, we will have a higher current account deficit, which will weaken rupee further, stoke inflation and lead to higher bond yields"

Simply put, if we have higher growth, we will have a higher current account deficit, which will weaken the currency further, stoke inflation and lead to higher bond yields.

A falling rupee may also deter portfolio inflows in both stocks and bonds.

As JP Morgan’s Jahangir Aziz said to CNBC- TV18 on Tuesday: “In a situation like this, there is no other option but to bring down the current account deficit by the old fashioned method, which is by reducing growth.”

Unfortunately, the stock markets are currently pricing in very high growth.

[Suraj]

A falling rupee may also deter portfolio inflows in both stocks and bonds.

The first post on this page has an article showing the opposite - the foreign bond guys are already betting the worst of the Rupee is over, and are grabbing the attractive yields on Indian govt securities.

[Prasad]

Why the RCEP trade deal could hit India's agriculture, manufacturing sectors
i know the article is being written by a JNU prof., but many of the issues he has flagged are correct. Already Samsung is closing it's TV manufacturing unit in India in anticipation of RCEP. Surely people above realise only thing we are exporting due to free trade agreements are jobs

That is a canard that some mediots are pulling. Samsung has a massive presence in Vietnam and has poured in some $17bn there in 8 factories. They're consolidating TV manufacturing there after closing up in Malaysia and HK(i think). India unit closure has been hinted at from as early as Jan 2017. It isn't an overnight decision taken last week.

[chetak]

Despite the humour, the concerns are very real.


twitter

twitter

Got in WA

Nail biting, thrilling competition.....
Who will hit century first...
*Diesel*
*Petrol* Or
*Rupee*

[Bart S]

Why the RCEP trade deal could hit India's agriculture, manufacturing sectors
i know the article is being written by a JNU prof., but many of the issues he has flagged are correct. Already Samsung is closing it's TV manufacturing unit in India in anticipation of RCEP. Surely people above realise only thing we are exporting due to free trade agreements are jobs

That is a canard that some mediots are pulling. Samsung has a massive presence in Vietnam and has poured in some $17bn there in 8 factories. They're consolidating TV manufacturing there after closing up in Malaysia and HK(i think). India unit closure has been hinted at from as early as Jan 2017. It isn't an overnight decision taken last week.

Shouldn't we still be fighting it and trying to get the business back, instead of accepting it as fait accompli? The Indian market is surely a heck of a lot bigger than Vietnam's and most SE Asian states.

[Kashi]

Shouldn't we still be fighting it and trying to get the business back, instead of accepting it as fait accompli? The Indian market is surely a heck of a lot bigger than Vietnam's and most SE Asian states.

We could start by imposing tariffs on these TVs that would now have to be imported.

Want to sell it here? Make it here.

[Trikaal]

We could start by imposing tariffs on these TVs that would now have to be imported.

Want to sell it here? Make it here.

That's exactly the opposite of a fta. If we are going to impose tarrifs, why waste our and everyone else's time by negotiating a fta in first place?

[Kashi]

That's exactly the opposite of a fta. If we are going to impose tarrifs, why waste our and everyone else's time by negotiating a fta in first place?

So is Make in India, so are subsidies, so is every damn non-tariff barrier. Then why waste time formulating those policies?

[Trikaal]

So is Make in India, so are subsidies, so is every damn non-tariff barrier. Then why waste time formulating those policies?

That's just wrong. Make in India is a policy to promote local manufacturing, has nothing to do with fta. Subsidies are part of the negotiations during fta and won't affect the fta.

FTA basically eliminates import duties from countries with which u sign fta. If you are going to again put up tarrifs, that will only cause the other country to dissolve the fta which is counterproductive to your efforts of negotiating the damn thing in the first place.

I am not saying tarrifs are bad. All I am saying is why bother negotiating an fta if you are going to break it on day 1?

[Trikaal]

A better way for India to force companies to stay here without breaking the fta might be to introduce import quality control standards like these South East Asian countries. Quality control is usually outside the ambit of fta(will have to read fine print to be sure) and is used to deny imports from certain countries. Case in point- Countries disallowing Indian Basmati due to pesticide concentration. Recently, Trump was also complaining about how Japan refuse American automobile imports by placing ridiculous quality control standards that are impossible to achieve for anyone.

[Kashi]

^^ That is a good idea indeed and those are called non-tariff barriers.

Which is what we should be doing.

Trump is the one to speak, conveniently forgetting the 25% "Chicken tax" that US imposes on imported trucks.

[nam]

A better way for India to force companies to stay here without breaking the fta might be to introduce import quality control standards like these South East Asian countries. Quality control is usually outside the ambit of fta(will have to read fine print to be sure) and is used to deny imports from certain countries. Case in point- Countries disallowing Indian Basmati due to pesticide concentration. Recently, Trump was also complaining about how Japan refuse American automobile imports by placing ridiculous quality control standards that are impossible to achieve for anyone.

This is fine for TFTA countries like US & Europe. Here Indian supplier would pay off the custom guy to import the goods they want.

More than Chinese dumping, it is our guys who want this dumping to happen.

[Suraj]

^^ That is a good idea indeed and those are called non-tariff barriers.

Which is what we should be doing.

Trump is the one to speak, conveniently forgetting the 25% "Chicken tax" that US imposes on imported trucks.

this is just too funny. Someone rails against tariff barriers and rhetorically asks what's the point of a FTA with tariff barriers... and then proposes non tariff barriers as the solution.

The idea of 'FTA means no duties' is heavily idealized. In reality, it's simply an arrangement where some things are no longer duty controlled, but a range of other safeguards exist - tariff and non-tariff barriers, rule of origin constraints, quality safeguards and more.

[Bart S]

Shouldn't we still be fighting it and trying to get the business back, instead of accepting it as fait accompli? The Indian market is surely a heck of a lot bigger than Vietnam's and most SE Asian states.

We could start by imposing tariffs on these TVs that would now have to be imported.

Want to sell it here? Make it here.

I was thinking more along the lines of having a quiet word with Samsung about their future access to our market. It's what the Chinese have been doing for decades.

[Suraj]

I think it's self evident that our first priority is and should always be ourselves. All agreements, deals are means to this end. We are not obligated to follow them to the detriment of our own self interest.

With that said, there's a distinct lack of co-ordination in industrial policy. A cohesive policy framework will have several ministries involved, and several moving parts, and therefore complexity. Here are some aspects to it:
* Tariff and duty frameworks that incentivize production at home, import of input material but not finished products, and export of finished or value added products.
* Selective FTAs that ensure easier access to inputs into our value addition processes, ideally with significant export component.
* A robust watchdog to impose tariff and non tariff barriers , either to support domestic industry, or simply as punitive retaliatory action.
* A stable exchange rate policy that supports the trade imperatives. Typically, it's not 'weak' or 'strong' currency that is important, as much as rate stability, that takes away additional hedging costs that the trader bears.

Several ministries/department have to interact here. Finance Ministry, Commerce Ministry, DIPP, RBI, Corporate Affairs, Civil Aviation, Road Transport and Highways, Shipping, Steel, Heavy Industries, so many more. It needs a nodal agency at PMO level coordinating things efficiently.

[jpremnath]

Our experience from ASEAN and other FTA s hasn't been great...I never thought we will sign up so easily...

They say there is a binding agreement on services and people movement...But it will be our industry which will be hit hard...with pathetic infrastructure, we are inefficient in terms of power and logistics which makes our items expensive...For many industries it's already cheaper to import from Thailand than to make it in India..and RECP will means the things are gonna get much worse

[nandakumar]

At the risk of sounding presumptuous let me venture some thoughts on FTAs by way of elucidation to members on this forum.
FTAs are entered into not as a favour to the citizens of the other country but as a favour to importers in the home country.
The benefits can be in the form of small incremental income for a large number of importers but the quantum of economic benefits in the aggregate is huge. So it is desirable.
The home nation also recognises that there are some people would be hurt. But as long as that number is small relative to the gainers the FTA deal is still advantageous.
Some politics do creep in. If Indian rubber product manufacturers wants duty free imports of natural rubber from Thailand and Thailand in turn is willing to give duty free market access to cars from India the Govt of the day may take the view that it is politically acceptable to let rubber growers in Kerala take a hit on their incomes in return for greater GDP and hence tax collections in States such as Maharashtra, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh, for obvious reasons.
Non tariff barriers are not employed to deny benefits to the country with whom a FTA is negotiated. Because that is so obviously fraudulent the negotiating country will see through it. It is designed to deny other countries free loading on an FTA with a country that India has a deal. So there are safeguard clauses such as rules of origin, minimum value add, port of entry and so on. Thus in a Indo Thailand FTA you will have conditions such as 30% local manufacture on TVs so that Chinese TVs dont ride piggyback on Indo Thai FTA. Similarly FTA with SouhKorea which allows duty free access to their Cement with the condition that it will be permitted only Chennai port so that there is no possibility of Pakistani Cement coming in masquerading as Korean cement and so on.

[jpremnath]

Trump wants to stop subsidies to growing economies

Trump wants to stop subsidies to growing economies

President Donald Trump on Friday said he wants to stop the subsidies that growing economies like India and China have been receiving as he wants the US, which he considers as a "developing nation", to grow faster than anybody.

countries that have not matured enough yet, so we are paying them subsidies. Whole thing is crazy. Like India, like China, like others we say, 'oh, they're growing actually'," Trump said.

He said that they call themselves developing nations and "under that category they get subsidies." "We have to pay them money. This whole thing is crazy, but we're going to stop it.

We're going to stop it. We have stopped it.

"We are a developing nation, too, OK? We are. As far as I'm concerned, we are a developing nation. I want to be put down in that category because we are growing, too. We are going to grow faster than anybody," Trump said amidst applause from the audience.
Attacking the WTO, Trump said he thinks that the World Trade Organization was probably the worst of all. "But a lot of people don't know what that is, that allowed China to become this great economic power".

On the trade deficit between the US and China, which has led to a tari
war between the world's top two economies, he said, "I'm a big fan of (Chinese) President Xi Jinping, but I told him, 'we have to be fair'."
"We can't let China take USD 500 billion a year out of the United States and rebuild itself," he added.

The President also said that the US should get paid for securing the wealthy countries from the outside harm.

"I think it's fine, but they got to pay us for this. We're watching the whole world and they take it for granted.

"For years and years we've been protecting these countries. They're making a fortune.

They've had very little military cost. We have the biggest military cost in the world. Most of it goes to protecting outside countries, some of whom don't even like us," Trump said. "We're protecting countries that have -- I got to say, they do have respect for us now, but they didn't have any respect for us, and they got to pay. They got to pay, you know

The more i hear him, the more i seem to like this guy!!...everyone claims he is stupid, but he is the only American leader who is doing something against China...talking to a bully in the only language they understand...The Eleven and the rest of the Chinese establishment is shell shocked at what has hit them....They put all sort of barriers towards western companies but expects nothing but 'free trade' for their companies...

And yes, even we are on the firing line...I firmly believe the ridiculous tax rates on the automobile industry is the reason why our annual auto sales are a fraction of China..It should be close to double that of now. We make good quality manufacturing in this industry so unsustainable because of all the tariffs and cess. They end up being really expensive for even the rich and there is little investment in the high end automotive lines.

[vera_k]

How government can cut taxes on fuel without taking a hit in revenues

Nice graphics showing why fuel prices on the street are higher today, although crude oil prices are lower than 5 years back. The suggestion to move away from having taxes added on as a percentage (ad valorem) of the raw fuel price is common sense.

[Suraj]

Mod Note: A whole bunch of low quality posts have been cleaned up.

Please don't waste time posting general harangues, stories about politics, Nepal, China etc here. They WILL be deleted.

[VKumar]

How government can cut taxes on fuel without taking a hit in revenues

Nice graphics showing why fuel prices on the street are higher today, although crude oil prices are lower than 5 years back. The suggestion to move away from having taxes added on as a percentage (ad valorem) of the raw fuel price is common sense.

Customs duty rate on many items has remained the same or higher for at least past 16 years. Meanwhile the USD has doubled or more against the indian Rupee. This means that, even if volume of imports was constant, the duty collected would be double or higher.

This is sorely affecting the consumer and surely affecting industry.

Government must think carefully about either moving to specific duty or reducing the duty rate.

Government should not blatantly profit from its citizens.

[vijayk]

How government can cut taxes on fuel without taking a hit in revenues

Nice graphics showing why fuel prices on the street are higher today, although crude oil prices are lower than 5 years back. The suggestion to move away from having taxes added on as a percentage (ad valorem) of the raw fuel price is common sense.

Customs duty rate on many items has remained the same or higher for at least past 16 years. Meanwhile the USD has doubled or more against the indian Rupee. This means that, even if volume of imports was constant, the duty collected would be double or higher.

This is sorely affecting the consumer and surely affecting industry.

Government must think carefully about either moving to specific duty or reducing the duty rate.

Government should not blatantly profit from its citizens.

pretty reasonable to me but finance ministry is full of deaf and dumb guys! no one cares. Just make more money.

[nam]

Government should not blatantly profit from its citizens.

I hope you mean both Central & State, because both tax pertroluem.

Up coming Election means Central can be forced to reduce tax.. which just allows State to hike it's share.

Moreover if anyone assumes that reducing fuel prices will bring down inflation on public transportation, then it is delusional. I have never in my life seen bus/auto prices which were raised with excuse of "increased petrol price", ever come down once the price drops.

[VKumar]

Customs duty is levied by Centre. It is levied on all items, including basic food like cooking oil - (40% plus 10% surcharge!).
It increases cost, denies choice and quality to consumer.

No politician or government officer seems to understand the importance of imports in creating a consumer/customer base for ' make in India'.

India has no long term stable import / export policy. This ad hocism is hurting us both when we are in short supply or in surplus. It's difficult to sustain trading relationships when terms of trade are uncertain.

In addition to stiff import duty, India has several non tariff barriers. For example, in practice it's impossible to import most items that require mandatory BIS marking, because of the high cost and beauracratic rules.

[Philip]

One point programme to revive the economy and reduce forex outflows.

Ban or massively impose duties on Chin goods causing us a "$60B " deficit! A ban is certainly required for those products which have decimated our SMES.I am unable to understand the govt's. acute inaction on this and the diplomatic insults of the PRC in issuing stapled visas for Indians resident in Ar.Pradesh and J&K.Trump has threatened China with a $ 250+ B duty regime in order to boost US manufacturing and has also said that the US must not subsidise China and India's growth!

A telling poll on social media asking citizens what 50K
items would they next spend on; real estate, home improvements, jewellery or automobiles, electronic goods, etc. or not at all, had 63% say " not on anything"!
This shows the acute financial situ we are in.
Rising bank EMIs for housing loans, autos, etc. coupled with lower interest rates for bank deposits and a fast falling rupee with the double- whammy of rocketing fuel prices daily! The statement by the Fin.Min. that this is all only " temporary" is highly insensitive as the hole being burnt in the consumers pocket is getting larger and hotter by the day!

My almost daily and weekly shopping for comestibles has seen a marked decrease.My wife noticed this when she said that there were far less supermarket bags at home! More veggies are being bought from the local neighbourhood vendors than from supermarkets as they're cheaper. Eggs from the little boutique for example are only 4.50 to 5 Rs. compared with hatchery eggs sold in the s'markets at 8+ Rs. That's a saving of between 300 to 500 bucks a month.Free range and " brown" eggs are 10+ bucks!

My wife for eco. reasons has embarked upon a v.successful "zero-waste" exercise where fruit and veggie peels are being recycled in a box into natural cleansing liquids for kitchen counters,toilets and floor cleansing, avoiding buying expensive liquid detergents.This simple method is also saving us about 1.5 to 2K per month on this item alone.She is also making her own hair oils and shampoos from nuts and leaves instead of buying expensive global brands. Many citizens are developing kitchen/ veggie roof gardens too.This means less consumer spending across the board, resulting in a slowdown in the economy where it matters most.

The main item of concern cometh the 2019 elections will be the economic "feel good " or " feel bad" factor.This will heavily influence the result. The GOI must take immediate corrective measures to stem the crisis.The incoming state elections could be affected due to the current eco. crisis and this could have a cascading effect in 2019.

[vijayk]

One point programme to revive the economy and reduce forex outflows.

Ban or massively impose duties on Chin goods causing us a "$60B " deficit! A ban is certainly required for those products which have decimated our SMES.I am unable to understand the govt's. acute inaction on this and the diplomatic insults of the PRC in issuing stapled visas for Indians resident in Ar.Pradesh and J&K.Trump has threatened China with a $ 250+ B duty regime in order to boost US manufacturing and has also said that the US must not subsidise China and India's growth!

.

I agree with this approach. We need to stem chinese cheap imports

[kit]

{Deleted}

[Prasad]

Couple of articles on our earlier discussion about samsung and import duties -

https://m.economictimes.com/industry/co ... 747396.cms?

https://amp.ft.com/content/090eb0c0-93c ... 205561c3fe? (paywall)

[Singha]

[Singha]

life must have been hell in vietnam in 60s with USAF dumping bombs and napalm randomly all over...

[Kashi]

I wonder what was the sample size and the demographic that were surveyed in these polls.