VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

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Kashi
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Kashi »

I am sorry, you are right, it's not contradiction but deliberate obfuscation of facts.
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Kakarat »

Eric Thompson wrote:
Austin wrote:

Very Valid point and some one did not raise this.

They should have gone for 126 Rafale , if Modi could get a reduce cost of 36 AC they would have got a better bargain for 126 AC in G2G deal
I wish Modi had gone for the full 126+63 deal.
Leaving aside the cost, one of the reasons for the failure of MMRCA was disagreement between the OEM and Nominated Indian production agency HAL. Do you think it was possible for 100% import and how would the gov justify that?
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Rahul M »

Eric ji, first of all, kindly go easy on the technicolor posts, it's okay-ish for highlighting a phrase or two, not for entire blocks of texts.

here's your original set of theories viewtopic.php?p=2292102#p2292102

and these are your 'facts' as justification viewtopic.php?p=2292131#p2292131

my comments are in bold.
1) MIG-35 is cheapest of the lot

on paper. the vikramaditya was supposed to be free. we ended up paying 2.5X the initially agreed upon cost of refit. russians are notorious for this kind of bait and switch tactics.Mig bureau is particularly susceptible for its shoddy history and in general being the weak child of russi MIC. throughout the 90's their repeated failure to support our mig fleet grounded large parts of IAF's fighting force. worse, we had to shop for spare parts from shady eastern european arms merchants and IAF paid for with pilot's lives and a damaged reputation (flying coffins). in hindsight, not going for Mig seems to be an excellent decision given how the IN's Mig-29K story has turned up. or that the Mig bureau tried to sell old equipment to algeria as new, resulting in that country returning those Mig-29's.

2) Original RFP mandated HAL to be the partner

no argument there, not sure how this fact justifies any of your assertions

3) The deal was always estimated to be ~$10 billion (Rs. 42,000 crores) and there were stories to get Rafale out of the way.

the estimated price is irrelevant, as the MRCA circus had a wide disparity in a/c types and capability from the lithe gripen to the F/A-18 with almost double the MTOW and prices varied commensurately. there was no way any modern 4.5 gen a/c was going to come in that price bracket. if it was that important the bidding should have been restricted to bidders who agreed to a price ceiling.
"...there were stories to get Rafale out of the way." this is considered to be a datapoint to prove GoI's viewpoint ? really ? :lol: in the corrupt world of Indian journalism anyone can get anything published if they have enough moolah or tickets to foreign climes to spread around.



4) It is fact that IAF loved M2K and are upgrading them at a very steep price when compared to MIG-29 upgrade.

the point is they upgraded both. with the UPA govt's criminal neglect of the IAF's requirements with one stalling after another they had to upgrade any a/c they could realistically upgrade. they also upgraded the jaguar and the mig-27. of course, the french charge a bomb and hence M2K UPG is much costlier than Mig29UPG.
that doesn't say much other than that the IAF was desparate (due to UPA policies) and the foreign OEM's took advantage of it.


5) It is a fact that IAF would have gone for additional M2K had GoI not forced them to accept MIG-29 instead in the 1980s. Even prior to MMRCA, IAF wanted to go for additional M2K.

correct, before MRCA there was MRCA, where the contenders were M2k, Mig29, F-16 & Gripen. if the UPA wanted the deal to go to MiG as you claim they could have simply continued with that even when dassault withdrew the M2k. The tender could have still continued as 3 contenders were still in the race.
So clearly, UPA did not want MRCA to go to MiG unlike what you claim.


6) Lifecycle costs were added to RFP to ensure M2K and Rafale had a better chance against MIG-29/MIG-35 which had a favorable per unit cost vs any other fighter.

wait, didn't you just say that the UPA wanted the mig to win ? so why did the UPA MOD introduce a metric that made the mig uncompetitive ?
contradiction or CT, you decide ! :wink:
anyway, lifecycle costs were added to get a more realistic estimate of owning & operating a fighter. a fighter a/c is not a showpiece to displayed on a coffee table, it's job is to fly and fight. cost of operating a fighter is not a onetime down payment but a continuous spending to keep it fighting fit. same reason why people opt for bajaj or maruti-suzuki vehicles even though cheaper chinese alternatives might be available. ease & cost of maintenance.
if the mig fared poorly on that it just goes on to show we were right in using that metric. this is similar to how many companies sell a product on the cheap and once the customer is stuck with it charge a bomb on AMC.



7) It is a fact that HAL costs for Rafale production were higher

from that you want to draw conclusion that HAL is 'close' to russians and hence torpedoed the rafale deal ?
let me get this clear. you are alleging that a GOI owned PSU went behind the govt's back to sabotage a deal with the french (a country with which it has not insubstantial 'relations'; esp. in rotary a/c & engines) that it stood to hugely benefit from, severely damaging the IAF's and thus India's security preparedness just because of some airy emotional attachment with the russians ??? a country that repeatedly screws it over in the Su-30mki deal ?
I am sorry sir but are you sane ? :shock: do you even understand the grave nature of your allegation, never mind the ridiculousness ?


8 ) It was a fact that UPA government put the MMRCA in cold storage and was on the death bed when Modi took office.

precisely, with EF & rafale being the only remaining contenders it was clear for a long time that India's precarious economy at the time could not afford 126 of those birds. given that there was no attempt to ensure contenders stayed within acceptable budget limits, the only logical conclusion is that UPA wanted it that way. it tried its best and almost succeeded in denying the IAF the bare minimum fighters it required to ensure safety of the country. what was the motive ? that would be hard to say but given UPA's servile closeness to US
(cfe. "Manmohan singh gushing to Bush: people of India love you" source : https://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/M ... 311929.ece )
it's not implausible to think that they would have waited for the situation to die down and once the IAF was really desparate gone for a straight govt. to govt. deal (FMS) with US to buy the F-16, the most affordable of the US offerings.


9) It is fact the US vendors are back in the game in the revised MMRCA. If IAF's technical evaluation meant anything only Rafale and Eurofighter should have been part of the revised tender.

everybody is back in the revised MRCA, if the current govt wanted to go for a US fighter they could have simply gone for a govt. to govt. FMS deal with US, like they have done for the M777. there is also little chance of corruption in such a deal so it would have political sense as well. But they didn't.
which tells me it isn't the american a/c they are after. Now, the IAF must have made it clear it still needs the 100 odd a/c. So why not get the rafale itself in the required quantities, as you & Austin were saying ? the logical conclusion is that a)either the rafale is genuinely too costly and will thus be eliminated in the price part fo this MRCA 3.0 project OR b) the french are playing hardball in negotiations and this competition is expected to bring them down to earth.
now, let's consider your initial set of assertions
A. UPA wanted the MMRCA deal to go to Russian MIG-35.

not true as contrary to facts, see above replies to (5), (6) & (8).

B. At ~$50 million per unit, 126 fighters would have costed ~$6.5 Billion. Add Ammunition, Spares & support the over all deal would have been ~$8-10 Billion. This was the figure that Indians had heard for years.

misleading & irrelevant for various reasons, see reply to (3) above.


C. But IAF was averse to inducting any Russian fighters as they traditionally always preferred Western fighters. Hence they selected Rafale and Eurofighter instead.

IAF was given a mandate to select the most capable fighters, it selected the two most modern medium fighters and rejected four, three of which were western and one russian. two of the weatern and the russian one were essentially 70's designs while the other rejected western a/c was by design a smaller and less capable a/c comparable to the Tejas. clearly, your assertion of western bias in IAF is incorrect and not based on facts.

D. Since HAL was traditionally closer to Russia due to India's historical relationship, they quoted high manufacturing prices for Rafale which made the already expensive Rafales even more expensive.
this deserves an appropriate response.
please see reply to (7) above.


E. The result UPA put the MMRCA in cold storage for it to die with time.

and the IAF's preparedness with it and thus India's security as well. only point on which I agree with you.


F. When US leaning Modi came to power, he wanted to bring US back into the game but the technical selection by IAF had already eliminated the US fighters. So he used the cost of Rafale as an excuse to cancel the MMRCA 1.0 deal while ordering 36 Rafales to placate the French. Later, Modi had restarted the MMRCA 2.0 to bring the US fighter into the game eliminating the need for the vendor to partner with HAL while negating the IAF's technical selection of Rafale and Eurofighter. Now Russia has started firing at the Rafale scam through Russia leaning UPA. This is indirectly helping Modi as now only the US fighter would be clean. IAF would be happy to pick F-16 over MIG-35 as the prospects for Rafale under MMRCA 2.0 are almost gone.

I don't want to go into political discussions in this thread, but it was the US that banned Modi from entering US on a 2-bit law that was never applied before or since, it was the US sec'y of state that sent secret teams to gujarat to discover 'mass graves' that they believed will be there. the US tried its utmost to ensure that modi didn't become PM. To think that such a person is US leaning is ill-informed at best and asinine at worst. :roll:
for refutal of the rest of the half-cooked CT, please see (9) above.
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Eric Thompson »

Kashi wrote:I am sorry, you are right, it's not contradiction but deliberate obfuscation of facts.
Lol.. Okay :mrgreen:
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Philip »

At the time of conception of the MMRCA
deal, sev. years ago, we were still suffering from the hangover of the collapse of the USSR, regarding timely spares and support for Sov. milware ,as during the Sov. era, its defence industry was spread all over the Ru republics for both generating industry and jobs, plus making it difficult in times of war to be blitzed by NATO.
Putin had not yet revamped the Ru mil- industrial machine completely and the setting up in India of service units for Ru hardware had not taken place.The huge delays in the LCA programme, meant to replace MIG-21s, saw the IAF very cleverly upgrade 120 of them into the " Bisons", as an interim solution, which proved their mettle in the Indo- US COPE air exercises.

Thus the IAF wanted a western bird in the med. category , an improved M2K type.The M2K unfortunately had ceased production otherwise the IAF most probably would've simply ordered upgraded versions. What should've been a limited contest to SE fighters was revised to allow a French fighter( Rafale) to contest since historically from Ouragan, Mystere, M2K days, we've had a useful relatively trouble free experience with French
aircraft.

Allowing twin-engined med. fighters brought in the EF, F-18 and the new variant of the MIG-29, the 35 into the ring.Before the decision was made, the IAF decided to upgrade both of its med. fighters, the M2K and MIG-29, both of which had performed well during the Kargil War.M2Ks carried out precision strikes and 29s kept Paki F-16s away from the scene of action.

The shortlist of the EF and Rafale could've been easily predicted as these were the two most modern birds of the contestants.The US was mightily p* ssed off at the decision and its ambassador resigned in a huff.Kudos to the IAF for being truly professional and selecting the two on purely technical grounds.How the Rafale won being L-1 is another matter left to the beancounters.In hindsight, it was also correct technically, as the EF has not been an easy bird to support in European air forces.

The inordinate delay of sealing the deal by the UPA ( were extraneous elements trying to scupper the deal?) and Dassault vetoing desi production by HAL," not capable enough" of absorbing aviation high-tech , added to the confusion.The PM cuf the Gordian knot by ordering 2 sqds., what we could afford at the time.Improved MKI availability and relatively low cost of acquisition in comparison may see another 40+ ordered from HAL.However, LCA prod. is still in infancy and to meet the shortfall extra Rafales seems a sensible option.

However, the political war over the deal being carried out by the Cong./ Oppn. is clouding the entire issue of equipping the IAF with critically reqd. aircraft in view of the Sino- Pak JV mil. aggro. against India. The poor IAF may have to wait for the 2019 elections to be over for the extras to be ordered.It's probably why the extra MKIs are being considered.
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Eric Thompson »

Kakarat wrote:
Eric Thompson wrote:
I wish Modi had gone for the full 126+63 deal.
Leaving aside the cost, one of the reasons for the failure of MMRCA was disagreement between the OEM and Nominated Indian production agency HAL. Do you think it was possible for 100% import and how would the gov justify that?
The failure was due to political backing (or lack thereof for the Rafales). Congress supports Russian fighter while Modi supports the US fighter. Only IAF is keen on procuring Rafales.
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Karan M »

Eric, what is the proof behind any of these assertions?
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Kakarat »

Eric Thompson wrote:
Kakarat wrote:
Leaving aside the cost, one of the reasons for the failure of MMRCA was disagreement between the OEM and Nominated Indian production agency HAL. Do you think it was possible for 100% import and how would the gov justify that?
The failure was due to political backing (or lack thereof for the Rafales). Congress supports Russian fighter while Modi supports the US fighter. Only IAF is keen on procuring Rafales.
It is only your theory and there is no proof, Even if it was true can you be more specific at which stage of the MMRCA program and why congress supported Russian fighter? And if modi supports the US fighter what is stopping him from a gov-to-gov deal like the Indo-Russian JV for Ka-226?

I am also not ready to believe that Mig-35 would have costed only 50M after including TOT & offset. The name change from Mig-29 to Mig-35 itself was to price it higher
Last edited by Kakarat on 02 Sep 2018 20:50, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Karan M »

Eric Thompson wrote:Question: if the Modi government's price for Rafale deal was so much better than UPA's price for the Rafale, Why didn't Modi go for the full 126 fighters?
Isnt it obvious? 126 aircraft deal would have also mandated TOT under DPP and the cost would have ballooned then, the 36 aircraft deal mandates offsets and limited customization but nowhere near the TOT/local assembly rights a larger order mandated.

Modi ordered 36 because thats all his budget could afford, given all the sops required by the populace.
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Eric Thompson »

Rahul ji,

Please see my responses embedded below.
Rahul M wrote:Eric ji, first of all, kindly go easy on the technicolor posts, it's okay-ish for highlighting a phrase or two, not for entire blocks of texts.

here's your original set of theories viewtopic.php?p=2292102#p2292102

and these are your 'facts' as justification viewtopic.php?p=2292131#p2292131

my comments are in bold.
1) MIG-35 is cheapest of the lot

on paper. the vikramaditya was supposed to be free. we ended up paying 2.5X the initially agreed upon cost of refit. russians are notorious for this kind of bait and switch tactics.Mig bureau is particularly susceptible for its shoddy history and in general being the weak child of russi MIC. throughout the 90's their repeated failure to support our mig fleet grounded large parts of IAF's fighting force. worse, we had to shop for spare parts from shady eastern european arms merchants and IAF paid for with pilot's lives and a damaged reputation (flying coffins). in hindsight, not going for Mig seems to be an excellent decision given how the IN's Mig-29K story has turned up. or that the Mig bureau tried to sell old equipment to algeria as new, resulting in that country returning those Mig-29's.

Eric T:

There are three distinct periods

1980 - USSR
1990 - Yeltsin years
2000 and beyond - Putin's Era

Putin's era has brought stability and Russia is moving towards its erstwhile golden era.

PS: Neither I have supported or opposed one over the other. I just shared the facts on what has happened or is happening and the reasons for the same.

2) Original RFP mandated HAL to be the partner

no argument there, not sure how this fact justifies any of your assertions

3) The deal was always estimated to be ~$10 billion (Rs. 42,000 crores) and there were stories to get Rafale out of the way.

the estimated price is irrelevant, as the MRCA circus had a wide disparity in a/c types and capability from the lithe gripen to the F/A-18 with almost double the MTOW and prices varied commensurately. there was no way any modern 4.5 gen a/c was going to come in that price bracket. if it was that important the bidding should have been restricted to bidders who agreed to a price ceiling.
"...there were stories to get Rafale out of the way." this is considered to be a datapoint to prove GoI's viewpoint ? really ? :lol: in the corrupt world of Indian journalism anyone can get anything published if they have enough moolah or tickets to foreign climes to spread around.


Eric T:
The link I shared was from IDSA. You think IDSA is not credible enough?

4) It is fact that IAF loved M2K and are upgrading them at a very steep price when compared to MIG-29 upgrade.

the point is they upgraded both. with the UPA govt's criminal neglect of the IAF's requirements with one stalling after another they had to upgrade any a/c they could realistically upgrade. they also upgraded the jaguar and the mig-27. of course, the french charge a bomb and hence M2K UPG is much costlier than Mig29UPG.
that doesn't say much other than that the IAF was desparate (due to UPA policies) and the foreign OEM's took advantage of it.


Eric T:

Of course IAF have upgraded both. Do you think IAF would give step motherly treatment and not upgrade MIG-29 since it was not their preferred choice? They have to make the best of what they have on hand. On the other hand Dassault asked for an arm and a leg clearly knowing the IAF prefers M2K and push for the upgrade irrespective of the price.

5) It is a fact that IAF would have gone for additional M2K had GoI not forced them to accept MIG-29 instead in the 1980s. Even prior to MMRCA, IAF wanted to go for additional M2K.

correct, before MRCA there was MRCA, where the contenders were M2k, Mig29, F-16 & Gripen. if the UPA wanted the deal to go to MiG as you claim they could have simply continued with that even when dassault withdrew the M2k. The tender could have still continued as 3 contenders were still in the race.
So clearly, UPA did not want MRCA to go to MiG unlike what you claim.


Eric T:

I am alluding 1980s not 1990s.

The original M2K contract was for an outright purchase in fly-away condition of 40 aircraft followed by production of another 110 aircraft at HAL with ToT. But, in 1984, the then DM Shri R Venkatraman curtailed the M2K plan and had replaced it with the plan to induct MIG-29s instead to confront the threat of F-16s being inducted by Pakistan.


6) Lifecycle costs were added to RFP to ensure M2K and Rafale had a better chance against MIG-29/MIG-35 which had a favorable per unit cost vs any other fighter.

wait, didn't you just say that the UPA wanted the mig to win ? so why did the UPA MOD introduce a metric that made the mig uncompetitive ?
contradiction or CT, you decide ! :wink:
anyway, lifecycle costs were added to get a more realistic estimate of owning & operating a fighter. a fighter a/c is not a showpiece to displayed on a coffee table, it's job is to fly and fight. cost of operating a fighter is not a onetime down payment but a continuous spending to keep it fighting fit. same reason why people opt for bajaj or maruti-suzuki vehicles even though cheaper chinese alternatives might be available. ease & cost of maintenance.
if the mig fared poorly on that it just goes on to show we were right in using that metric. this is similar to how many companies sell a product on the cheap and once the customer is stuck with it charge a bomb on AMC.


Eric T:

Let's not assume that lifecycle costs was included based on the insistence of Congress


7) It is a fact that HAL costs for Rafale production were higher

from that you want to draw conclusion that HAL is 'close' to russians and hence torpedoed the rafale deal ?
let me get this clear. you are alleging that a GOI owned PSU went behind the govt's back to sabotage a deal with the french (a country with which it has not insubstantial 'relations'; esp. in rotary a/c & engines) that it stood to hugely benefit from, severely damaging the IAF's and thus India's security preparedness just because of some airy emotional attachment with the russians ??? a country that repeatedly screws it over in the Su-30mki deal ?
I am sorry sir but are you sane ? :shock: do you even understand the grave nature of your allegation, never mind the ridiculousness ?


Eric T:

On the contrary, since UPA was favorable towards MIG-29, HAL was going with the government.


8 ) It was a fact that UPA government put the MMRCA in cold storage and was on the death bed when Modi took office.

precisely, with EF & rafale being the only remaining contenders it was clear for a long time that India's precarious economy at the time could not afford 126 of those birds. given that there was no attempt to ensure contenders stayed within acceptable budget limits, the only logical conclusion is that UPA wanted it that way. it tried its best and almost succeeded in denying the IAF the bare minimum fighters it required to ensure safety of the country. what was the motive ? that would be hard to say but given UPA's servile closeness to US
(cfe. "Manmohan singh gushing to Bush: people of India love you" source : https://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/M ... 311929.ece )
it's not implausible to think that they would have waited for the situation to die down and once the IAF was really desparate gone for a straight govt. to govt. deal (FMS) with US to buy the F-16, the most affordable of the US offerings.


Eric T:

UPA being servile and closeness to US? Nothing can be further from the truth.

Evidence shows that Congress could be termed as lackey of USSR/Russia while BJP/Modi to be lackey of the US.


9) It is fact the US vendors are back in the game in the revised MMRCA. If IAF's technical evaluation meant anything only Rafale and Eurofighter should have been part of the revised tender.

everybody is back in the revised MRCA, if the current govt wanted to go for a US fighter they could have simply gone for a govt. to govt. FMS deal with US, like they have done for the M777. there is also little chance of corruption in such a deal so it would have political sense as well. But they didn't.
which tells me it isn't the american a/c they are after. Now, the IAF must have made it clear it still needs the 100 odd a/c. So why not get the rafale itself in the required quantities, as you & Austin were saying ? the logical conclusion is that a)either the rafale is genuinely too costly and will thus be eliminated in the price part fo this MRCA 3.0 project OR b) the french are playing hardball in negotiations and this competition is expected to bring them down to earth.
Eric T:

Everybody is back in the game. That's exactly what Modi wants people to believe. This is ensure that people do not blame him for giving such a huge deal to US on platter when the US fighter technology and ToT are clearly inferior. Let's not try to obfuscate the issue on hand by comparing this with other deals. There were nothing comparable to M-777 or Apaches.


now, let's consider your initial set of assertions
A. UPA wanted the MMRCA deal to go to Russian MIG-35.

not true as contrary to facts, see above replies to (5), (6) & (8).


Eric T:
This is still true as responded above.

B. At ~$50 million per unit, 126 fighters would have costed ~$6.5 Billion. Add Ammunition, Spares & support the over all deal would have been ~$8-10 Billion. This was the figure that Indians had heard for years.

misleading & irrelevant for various reasons, see reply to (3) above.


Eric T:

It is relevant because one of the reasons why MIG-29 deal curtailed the original M2K deal of producing 110 M2K at HAL was due to the fact that the price of M2K was double the price of MIG-29 which were procured at ~Rs 5 crore a unit. Also, IAF was never interested in this MMRCA RFP. After Kargil war, IAF wanted to use M2K performance during the war as the basis to resurrect the original plan to procure the remaining 110 M2K fighters. But the problem was that Dassault was producing the later variant of M2K i.e M2K - 5 which the then government used as excuse to reject the proposal saying M2K -5 is a different fighter than the M2K fighter procured in the original deal in 1984 and hence forcing IAF to go for a new RFP altogether.

C. But IAF was averse to inducting any Russian fighters as they traditionally always preferred Western fighters. Hence they selected Rafale and Eurofighter instead.

IAF was given a mandate to select the most capable fighters, it selected the two most modern medium fighters and rejected four, three of which were western and one russian. two of the weatern and the russian one were essentially 70's designs while the other rejected western a/c was by design a smaller and less capable a/c comparable to the Tejas. clearly, your assertion of western bias in IAF is incorrect and not based on facts.

Eric T:

There is no bias. I have already explained the sequence of events above. IAF just wanted to inducted M2K and later Rafale but their plans were always either curtailed or delayed by the politicians.

D. Since HAL was traditionally closer to Russia due to India's historical relationship, they quoted high manufacturing prices for Rafale which made the already expensive Rafales even more expensive.
this deserves an appropriate response.
please see reply to (7) above.


Eric T:

I have already explained it earlier.

Congress and HAL favors Russian fighter
IAF favors French fighter
Modi favors the US fighter


E. The result UPA put the MMRCA in cold storage for it to die with time.

and the IAF's preparedness with it and thus India's security as well. only point on which I agree with you.


F. When US leaning Modi came to power, he wanted to bring US back into the game but the technical selection by IAF had already eliminated the US fighters. So he used the cost of Rafale as an excuse to cancel the MMRCA 1.0 deal while ordering 36 Rafales to placate the French. Later, Modi had restarted the MMRCA 2.0 to bring the US fighter into the game eliminating the need for the vendor to partner with HAL while negating the IAF's technical selection of Rafale and Eurofighter. Now Russia has started firing at the Rafale scam through Russia leaning UPA. This is indirectly helping Modi as now only the US fighter would be clean. IAF would be happy to pick F-16 over MIG-35 as the prospects for Rafale under MMRCA 2.0 are almost gone.

I don't want to go into political discussions in this thread, but it was the US that banned Modi from entering US on a 2-bit law that was never applied before or since, it was the US sec'y of state that sent secret teams to gujarat to discover 'mass graves' that they believed will be there. the US tried its utmost to ensure that modi didn't become PM. To think that such a person is US leaning is ill-informed at best and asinine at worst. :roll:
for refutal of the rest of the half-cooked CT, please see (9) above.
Eric T:

And then US removed the Visa ban as soon as he became PM. How convenient.

The ban was put to increase the popularity of Modi in Indian masses. Only the naive fall for such theatrics.

The proof of the pudding is in the eating. It is a fact that all acts committed by Modi have favored the US.
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Austin »

Well if he could have bought 36 with no ToT then he could have done the same with 126 as well , for all we know MOD could have got lower price for a 3.5x bigger deal in numbers.

Its an error in judgement by the Modi government in just limiting to 36 Rafale and now opening the same competition under some different name , Reminded me of Mirage fiasco of mid 80's

Now they are again going back to the same old thing and now the cost would be higher then in 2014 and how would our budget afford it now if it all.
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Kakarat »

Austin wrote:Well if he could have bought 36 with no ToT then he could have done the same with 126 as well , for all we know MOD could have got lower price for a 3.5x bigger deal in numbers.

Its an error in judgement by the Modi government in just limiting to 36 Rafale and now opening the same competition under some different name , Reminded me of Mirage fiasco of mid 80's

Now they are again going back to the same old thing and now the cost would be higher then in 2014 and how would our budget afford it now if it all.
Maybe that is the plan but instead of single order for 126 there will be 36+follow-ons in multiple stages. You are able to see how much issue is being raised for the order of just 36, but only time will tell
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Eric Thompson »

Kakarat wrote:
Eric Thompson wrote:
The failure was due to political backing (or lack thereof for the Rafales). Congress supports Russian fighter while Modi supports the US fighter. Only IAF is keen on procuring Rafales.
It is only your theory and there is no proof, Even if it was true can you be more specific at which stage of the MMRCA program and why congress supported Russian fighter? And if modi supports the US fighter what is stopping him from a gov-to-gov deal like the Indo-Russian JV for Ka-226?

I am also not ready to believe that Mig-35 would have costed only 50M after including TOT & offset. The name change from Mig-29 to Mig-35 itself was to price it higher
I have already given sufficient details in my posts including in the latest response to Rahul ji. Feel free to ask if there any open questions.
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Eric Thompson »

Kakarat wrote:
Austin wrote:Well if he could have bought 36 with no ToT then he could have done the same with 126 as well , for all we know MOD could have got lower price for a 3.5x bigger deal in numbers.

Its an error in judgement by the Modi government in just limiting to 36 Rafale and now opening the same competition under some different name , Reminded me of Mirage fiasco of mid 80's

Now they are again going back to the same old thing and now the cost would be higher then in 2014 and how would our budget afford it now if it all.
Maybe that is the plan but instead of single order for 126 there will be 36+follow-ons in multiple stages. You are able to see how much issue is being raised for the order of just 36, but only time will tell
If the plan to to go for all 126 Rafale then the Modi would have done it in the first deal itself.

The reason for 36 Rafale was for the following reasons

1) Placate French/Dassault who have won the MMRCA tender.

2) Placate IAF who eagerly wanted to procure M2K and later Rafale but have time and again been overruled

Now that both French and IAF have been placated, the line had been cleared to cancel the MMRCA 1.0. and start the MMRCA 2.0

Cancelling the MMRCA 1.0 meant

a) MMRCA 2.0 does not no longer mandates vendor to partner with HAL

b) MMRCA 2.0 can get US vendors who lost in the IAF technical evaluations in MMRCA 1.0 can now be brought back into the game

MMRCA 2.0 would induct the US fighter.
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Eric Thompson »

Karan M wrote:Eric, what is the proof behind any of these assertions?
Karan ji,

I have been responding to the posts (both your's and others) with details.

Now you have sent me a warning that I am trolling by responding.

It is your forum and you have the power to silence any opinion that does not suit your narrative.

I will no longer be posting or responding.

Thank you
Eric T.
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Kakarat »

Eric Thompson wrote:
Kakarat wrote:
It is only your theory and there is no proof, Even if it was true can you be more specific at which stage of the MMRCA program and why congress supported Russian fighter? And if modi supports the US fighter what is stopping him from a gov-to-gov deal like the Indo-Russian JV for Ka-226?

I am also not ready to believe that Mig-35 would have costed only 50M after including TOT & offset. The name change from Mig-29 to Mig-35 itself was to price it higher
I have already given sufficient details in my posts including in the latest response to Rahul ji. Feel free to ask if there any open questions.
1. At which stage of the MMRCA program and why congress supported Russian fighter? (with proof if possible)
2. Why did the then congress gov did not force IAF to include russian jets in the winners list?
3. If modi supports the US fighter what is stopping him from a gov-to-gov deal like the Indo-Russian JV for Ka-226?

Please answer these three, I don't have patience to respond to your theory from long discussion of you and Rahul

And your link from IDSA (https://idsa.in/TWIR/4_3_2009_MMRCA) is from 2009 is misleading and wrong as French Rafale took part in the trials and was declared winner and its reference link is not working
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Rahul M »

Eric Thompson wrote:
Eric Thompson wrote:
There are three distinct periods

1980 - USSR
1990 - Yeltsin years
2000 and beyond - Putin's Era

Putin's era has brought stability and Russia is moving towards its erstwhile golden era.
diyar gawd !! it is during this 'golden period' that russia has repeatedly screwed us over, whether in case of the vik, mig-29k's for the navy, T-90's etc etc the list goes on. it may have been golden for putin & his cronies but certainly not for Indo-Russian efence relations.

russian contracts have been unreliable with numerous hidden prices and no guarantee of performance. IOW, a complete disaster.
PS: Neither I have supported or opposed one over the other. I just shared the facts on what has happened or is happening and the reasons for the same.
yeah sure, and I have a bridge to sell. are you interested ?
Everybody is back in the game. That's exactly what Modi wants people to believe. This is ensure that people do not blame him for giving such a huge deal to US on platter when the US fighter technology and ToT are clearly inferior. Let's not try to obfuscate the issue on hand by comparing this with other deals. There were nothing comparable to M-777 or Apaches.
again, no facts more CT.
Eric Thompson wrote:
The link I shared was from IDSA. You think IDSA is not credible enough?
dude, do you even read your own links ? IDSA shared a link from IDRW as part of its new digest. that is not the official IDSA position and most certainly not the govt's position.
Eric Thompson wrote: Of course IAF have upgraded both. Do you think IAF would give step motherly treatment and not upgrade MIG-29 since it was not their preferred choice? They have to make the best of what they have on hand. On the other hand Dassault asked for an arm and a leg clearly knowing the IAF prefers M2K and push for the upgrade irrespective of the price.
IOW, there was no bias, unlike what you alleged. french maal always cost more, so that is hardly suprising.
Eric Thompson wrote:
I am alluding 1980s not 1990s.

The original M2K contract was for an outright purchase in fly-away condition of 40 aircraft followed by production of another 110 aircraft at HAL with ToT. But, in 1984, the then DM Shri R Venkatraman curtailed the M2K plan and had replaced it with the plan to induct MIG-29s instead to confront the threat of F-16s being inducted by Pakistan.
:rotfl: :rotfl:
right, we are all discussing medieval history while trying to pretend this is the rafale thread.
no sir, you did not. your entire argument has been that the UPA wants the mig.
Eric Thompson wrote:
Let's not assume that lifecycle costs was included based on the insistence of Congress
yes, let's assume all manner of improbable things but not that the party running the govt & MOD was responsible for the tender it was running.
even fantasy movies do not require this amount of suspension of belief.
Eric Thompson wrote:
On the contrary, since UPA was favorable towards MIG-29, HAL was going with the government.
as has been made clear, if the UPA did actually want the mig they could have done so in MRCA ver1.0 itself, when conveniently enough, even the M2k had been withdrawn from competition. you are simply repeating your pet theories even after they have been thoroughly debunked with no regard for facts.
Eric Thompson wrote:
UPA being servile and closeness to US? Nothing can be further from the truth.
Evidence shows that Congress could be termed as lackey of USSR/Russia while BJP/Modi to be lackey of the US.
what evidence ? MMS fangirlish gushing of bush is only the tip of that iceberg. sorry if it ruins your long held worldview.
Eric Thompson wrote: And then US removed the Visa ban as soon as he became PM. How convenient.
The ban was put to increase the popularity of Modi in Indian masses. Only the naive fall for such theatrics.
The proof of the pudding is in the eating. It is a fact that all acts committed by Modi have favored the US.
sheesh ! more CT. US removed the ban because to do otherwise would mean cutting off diplomatic ties with the worlds largest democracy and 3rd largest economy.
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Karan M »

Austin wrote:Well if he could have bought 36 with no ToT then he could have done the same with 126 as well , for all we know MOD could have got lower price for a 3.5x bigger deal in numbers.

Its an error in judgement by the Modi government in just limiting to 36 Rafale and now opening the same competition under some different name , Reminded me of Mirage fiasco of mid 80's

Now they are again going back to the same old thing and now the cost would be higher then in 2014 and how would our budget afford it now if it all.
What is this about "he could have done the same with 126 as well"... there is NO money to do this, the entire MMRCA 2.0 circus will only take place after 2019, provided GOI has enough money then... and even that is not guaranteed. Modi was clearly told L&Ts TOT from Areva et al (some specific items can be spoken about later, when the event suffices) necessitated a Rafale order or SRSAM from France. And IAF pointed to its declining fleet strength and they went for 36! There was no money to buy more at the time. And any plans to add to this are also now stillborn given the sheer political opportunism displayed by the left/INC to manufacture a scam out of nothing.

The MMRCA 2.0 came because Parrikar tried convincing the IAF to manage with LCA, Su-30 availability boost plus 36 Rafales.. and the IAF complained, they needed more airframes right away. And hence Parrikar agreed and hence the rush for cheaper airframes in numbers.. which exercise will end up showing the IAFs desire for "cheaper" imports is also likely to go nowhere.

PS: HAL is also getting a long overdue audit for its inflated cost figures (2.7 x labor arbitrage) which partly sunk the Rafale TOT. The same issue will recur for the F-16, EF or whatever imported doodad is chosen in MMRCA 2.0. So best to fix that issue now.
I will be delighted if a Modi led GOI returns in 2019 and as it's first action orders more Rafales and calls an end to the MMRCA 2.0 farce. I don't much care for Rafale deep TOT (as if that will help) and will be happier if the GOI commits wholeheartedly to the AMCA with the cost differentials or money saved!
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Karan M »

Eric Thompson wrote:
Karan M wrote:Eric, what is the proof behind any of these assertions?
Karan ji,

I have been responding to the posts (both your's and others) with details.

Now you have sent me a warning that I am trolling by responding.

It is your forum and you have the power to silence any opinion that does not suit your narrative.

I will no longer be posting or responding.

Thank you
Eric T.
You were warned by another admin for not providing evidence for your statements.

What you have done so far is put up some really sketchy (to put it mildly) theories with some links that don't really corroborate your theories.
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Khalsa »

that was a highly informative last page.
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Kashi »

Eric Thompson wrote:Let's not assume that lifecycle costs was included based on the insistence of Congress
:eek: :eek:

I mean are you for real? Did you even read what you typed??

But there's more
Eric Thompson wrote:And then US removed the Visa ban as soon as he became PM. How convenient.

The ban was put to increase the popularity of Modi in Indian masses. Only the naive fall for such theatrics.

The proof of the pudding is in the eating. It is a fact that all acts committed by Modi have favored the US.
:rotfl: :rotfl:

So the 60 MPs (mostly Congress and Left) who wrote (with the tacit support of the then GoI) to the US government supporting and asking for a visa ban for Modi all did so because they wanted "to increase the popularity of Modi in Indian masses", even if it meant that they would be losing the next election??

Since their actions clearly "favored" Modi, can you clarify what pudding were they eating???

:rotfl:
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Philip »

Pudding? More likely "beefburgers"! :rotfl:
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by ArjunPandit »

Any bets for the factopinion the MMRCA X.0 is another ploy to buy time for LCA MK1A, 2..et al?
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Khalsa »

ArjunPandit wrote:Any bets for the factopinion the MMRCA X.0 is another ploy to buy time for LCA MK1A, 2..et al?
Yes I will take a bet on that.
There is deliberate strategic thinking behind many purchases.

Don't forget a month ago, we , Indonesia and Vietnam were granted a special exemption status by USA to operate US and Russian equipment in parallel.
Now apparently that exemption has no meaning and we can get sanctions.

I think the Mh60 deal will not happen till we pay up for the S-400s.

And thus many deas such as LCA Mk1, which require US engines and other critical components will be supported by MMRCA X.0 carrots deal.
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Chinmay »

I feel the MH-60 and NASAMS deals were the sweeteners for CAATSA exemption and S-400. It is unlikely that the F-XXs will be part of the IAF, but the aerial component will be the UAVs which the IN (also IAF?) wants and more Apaches.

Just a hypothesis though.
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by saumitra_j »

I am posting some sections from an article from Swarajya, which is an excerpt from Nitin Gokhale's book: You can read it here
the Ministry of Defence (MoD) had in 2011, bench marked the Total Cost of Acquisition at Rs 163,403 crores. This, it must be pointed out, was different from the total cost of deliverables in the 126 MMRCA contract, which was bench marked by the MoD at Rs 69,456 crores, excluding the offset loading cost, estimated to be anywhere between Rs 2530 crores to Rs 5060 crores.
the six companies submitted their techno-commercial bids in April 2008, followed by nearly 11 months of field evaluation trial (FET) held in the heat of Rajasthan desert during peak summer months and extreme cold conditions in the high altitude zone of Ladakh. The trials were completed in May 2010. The evaluation committee of the IAF shortlisted two aircraft—the Eurofighter Typhoon and the Rafale aircraft fielded by the Dassault Aviation (DA)—and forwarded the recommendation to Defence Minister AK Antony. Antony took almost a year to accept the recommendation. It was already 2011
For the next two years, negotiations on Transfer of Technology, Offset and Maintenance went on apace. However, certain aspects related to License Manufacture of 108 aircraft in India with HAL as the lead production agency could not be finalized. Major differences occurred on the aspect of Man Hours that would be required to produce the aircraft from kits in India and who would take the responsibility for entire lot of 126 aircraft. While DA maintained that 31 Million Man Hours that it has proposed should be sufficient to produce 108 Rafale aircraft in India, HAL was asking for mark up of this Man Hours by 2.7 times.
The UPA government, under the overly cautious AK Antony instead of imposing a deadline for the French manufacturer to comply with the terms of the RFP, dragged its feet and allowed Dassault Aviation to get away with obfuscation. Moreover, in an unusual move, Antony instructed MoD officials to bring the file back to him after concluding the CNC to re-examine the integrity of the process before proceeding to finalise the contract, creating confusion and doubt in the minds of the officials who were negotiating with the manufacturer.
the French Company stated that the estimate of consolidated Man Hours given by them is to be used by HAL to prepare its own quotation with respect to the completion of its (HAL’s) tasks under the MMRCA. The MoD realised that applying a factor of 2.7 on the Man Hours quoted by both Dassault Aviation and EADS (the company that quoted the second lowest price), the Total Cost of Acquisition (TCA), as on November 2011, would undergo a material change to the extent that Dassault Aviation would have no longer remained L1 vendor and would have become L2 vendor.As the CNC members took the matter to Parrikar he realised the process had been convoluted to such an extent that, it would have been impossible to take it forward. He however knew from the briefings given by the IAF, there was no time to lose in acquiring fighter jets. The number of effective squadrons was going down rapidly. The IAF leadership also told him that they were happy with Rafale’s performance and would rather have the fighter in its fleet than scout of other options. Parrikar realised that another round of MMRCA kind of competition would have taken enormous time and effort. So he took the matter to the Prime Minister and briefed him about the necessity of procuring the fighter. At the same time, Parrikar told Modi, it would be legally untenable to go through with the MMRCA contract since the process had got vitiated completely thanks to Antony’s indecisiveness and a crucial oversight in the original terms of the contract..
Under the circumstances, there was no alternative but to withdraw the original tender, Parrikar told Modi since the CVC (Central Vigilance Commission) guidelines provide that negotiations cannot be held with the competitor who has come second in the contract (L2 vendor in officialese). The only way, the defence minister suggested, was to scrap the tender and buy a minimum number of Rafale jets off the shelf to fill a critical gap in the IAF’s inventory. The Prime Minister agreed and decided to talk to the French President about such a possibility during his upcoming visit to Paris in April 2015. The Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) also gave its approval to the new proposal before Modi left for Paris on 9 April 2015.
Austin, Eric et al - Modi / Parrikar may be all powerful but even they have to follow the process. Try to understand what St Anthony had done to the entire procurement process to protect his own image. UPA 2 was a complete disaster not just to the economy which was bankrupt but also to the armed forces and in general one of the biggest threat the country has faced so far IMHO.
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Eric Thompson »

...
Last edited by Rahul M on 04 Sep 2018 01:50, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: clean up
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Eric Thompson »

Karan M wrote:
Eric Thompson wrote:
Karan ji,

I have been responding to the posts (both your's and others) with details.

Now you have sent me a warning that I am trolling by responding.

It is your forum and you have the power to silence any opinion that does not suit your narrative.

I will no longer be posting or responding.

Thank you
Eric T.
You were warned by another admin for not providing evidence for your statements.

What you have done so far is put up some really sketchy (to put it mildly) theories with some links that don't really corroborate your theories.
Karan ji,

I am extremely sorry. I was warned and banned by Rahul ji.

Apologies for the mix up from my end.

Regards
Eric T.
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Eric Thompson »

...
Last edited by Rahul M on 04 Sep 2018 01:50, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: clean up
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Rakesh »

Away From Politics, Air Force Pilots Train On Rafales In Gwalior
https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/away-fr ... or-1910360

Amid procurement controversy, Air Force pilots train on Rafale jets
https://www.deccanchronicle.com/nation/ ... -jets.html
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Rakesh »

France to make a three-day stopover in India during Mission PEGASE
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 654072.cms

The French Air Force is organizing and coordinating Mission PEGASE in the Asia-Pacific from September 1 to 4, 2018. Their detachment, which involves over a hundred aviators, will make a three-day stopover in India, at the Air Force Stations of Gwalior and Agra. On this occasion, joint flights and exchanges between the French and Indian Air Forces will be conducted. France will be projecting a detachment of three Rafale combat jets, one Atlas A-400M military transport aircraft, one C-135 refuelling aircraft, and one Airbus A310 cargo aircraft. The French aim to reinforce their presence in the Indo-Pacific and their mission in India is an illustration of the depth of the Indo-French strategic partnership, which is celebrating its twentieth anniversary this year.
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Rakesh »

This is how clueless the Congress Party is on the Rafale deal.... :lol:

The silver lining is not a single Congress protestor is complaining about the Rafale itself. They are just complaining about the cost of the Rafale or rather their perception of a *SCAM* in the cost of the Rafale. In fact, a number of them are saying to buy the Rafale onlee.

VIDEO: https://twitter.com/ThePrintIndia/statu ... 4360724481 ---> Sitaram is India's defence minister and Rafale is German: Congress protesters when asked on the Rafale deal.
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Rakesh »

The newsclip that Philip was talking about. Read the last para in the article :)

Image
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Philip »

Most politicos are clueless about military matters as well as anything scientific or technical.They only how to win elections, get plum ministerial portfolios,fancy digs and demand higher salaries.With their ill-gotten gains they pick up properties and land, using trusted benamis from their tribe and lord it over the masses.Their best knowledge of anything technical iz cars and SUVs, gadgets like smart phones and luxury watches.Jewellery of course runs in their blood!

The Rafale controversy will fizzle out unless like Bofors and the AW scandal, the firang media spot something soupcon.The Cong. are trying to throw as much mud on the deal in the hope that something will stick.It's election time and they're getting desperate.
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Rakesh »

V_Raman wrote:I am beginning to think this is a hit job by USA. They cannot stand that their fighters were not L1 nor not getting any contracts in the future for their fighters. This will die down if an order is placed for the teens.
The story just took an interesting turn. But we need to wait for more authoritative sources. But do read with some popcorn... :)

Top Congress leader met US arms companies before Rafale storm arrived?
https://www.mynation.com/news/rafale-de ... bjp-pedqc5
“The Rafale deal was initialled between India and France on September 23, 2016. But the Congress began to raise objections only in November 2017 in the run-up to the Gujarat elections. Pertinently, a top Congress leader, on a US tour just months before the accusations were made, met top executives of US defence firms,” a top government source told MyNation, requesting anonymity. MyNation is withholding the names of the leader and the companies as they have not responded to our queries regarding the meeting. MyNation had sent the queries to the Congress leader and the US companies separately two days ago.
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Philip »

I was reliably told sometime ago that a certain person of UPA hue was delaying the Raffy acquisition on behalf of other rivals, but there was no hard evidence presented.But the suspicion lingers.

Media ( Pioneer) report today.The GOI has become very sensitive over the Raffy deal conttoversy and has told Ru, that if they want the AK deal for the IA to go through, they cannot pick their JV partner ( Adani),and the local production must be made by the OFB.
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Sumeet »

Supreme court to hear plea to stay Rafale deal

So this matter reaches Supreme Court now, wondering on what ground ...
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Philip »

Ridiculous! If allowed every deal would get stalled!
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Sumeet »

Philip wrote:I was reliably told sometime ago that a certain person of UPA hue was delaying the Raffy acquisition on behalf of other rivals, but there was no hard evidence presented.But the suspicion lingers.

Media ( Pioneer) report today.The GOI has become very sensitive over the Raffy deal conttoversy and has told Ru, that if they want the AK deal for the IA to go through, they cannot pick their JV partner ( Adani),and the local production must be made by the OFB.
Philip here is a video from Republic on the same topic

Republic Exclusive: Top opposition leader met with US arms manufacturer before Rafale issue picked up
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Re: VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

Post by Indranil »

I don't like this deal. But, this tamasha is absolutely ridiculous! We are playing with security preparations here!
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