CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

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Katare
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Katare »

Austin wrote:
Rakesh wrote:Expect quid pro quo for CAATSA waiver, if one does come along.

F-16 or F-18 perhaps.
Not really because we have dozens of Russian deal in pipeline and help of Russian in Strategic Sectors SSBN/SSN program.

If you end up for quid pro quo for each deal then you end up loosing your sovereignty , This reminds me of US putting complete sanction on ISRO for cryogenic deal for no rhyme or reason and ISRO emerged much stronger 2 decades later.

Let them put sanctions they are not our friends really , our indiginous industry and relations will partners Russia Israel France and who ever wants to treat India as equal partners without putting a gun on our head will emerge stronger decade later.
Austin ji what are these dozens of deal we have in pipeline with Russia.
Austin
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Austin »

Krivak , Ak-103 , Ka-226 , Mi-17 , Super MKI , ATV , SSN , Lease of 2nd Akula , Most newer modern ships have russian electronics/weapons , T-90 Upgrade , many dozen agreement for spares and support , Hypersonic Brahmos , Brahmos-NG .....the list would simply go on if you add JVs and Weapons/Spares/Maintenance etc With 70 % of equipment still RUssian origin and will be the case for decades to come the depth on Indo Russian system
Manish_P
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Manish_P »

chetak wrote: Expect either the F-16 or F-18 to be thrust down our throats or even may be up our....... without the benefit of KY jelly.

Trump is a businessman with an election to win.

Unable to scuttle the rafale deal, they will surely sabotage the follow on french sales to the IAF as well as the IN requirements.

This will saddle us with much older technology and leave us stranded as an easily managed cheaper parts supply chain for the F-16 or F-18's little remaining lifecycle support worldwide.
Would have preferred more P8i's and more Guardians

Think there is any possibility of our shrewd folk trying to pitch that to business man Trump?
chetak
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by chetak »

Manish_P wrote:
chetak wrote: Expect either the F-16 or F-18 to be thrust down our throats or even may be up our....... without the benefit of KY jelly.

Trump is a businessman with an election to win.

Unable to scuttle the rafale deal, they will surely sabotage the follow on french sales to the IAF as well as the IN requirements.

This will saddle us with much older technology and leave us stranded as an easily managed cheaper parts supply chain for the F-16 or F-18's little remaining lifecycle support worldwide.
Would have preferred more P8i's and more Guardians

Think there is any possibility of our shrewd folk trying to pitch that to business man Trump?
our folks are scared not shrewd. :mrgreen:

trump carries a really big stick and is not afraid to use it.

But, if wishes were horses, then ..................
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by andy B »

chetak wrote:
Manish_P wrote:
Would have preferred more P8i's and more Guardians

Think there is any possibility of our shrewd folk trying to pitch that to business man Trump?
our folks are scared not shrewd. :mrgreen:

trump carries a really big stick and is not afraid to use it.

But, if wishes were horses, then ..................
Chetak saar love reading up the little naval snippets that yourself, Tsarkar ji and the likes provide keep em coming!
On the above saar I do think and believe more Neptunes are inevitable and will come. These babies are one of the most significant tool to hunt all sorts of fishes in the backyard and the users love them. So here's to hope eternal!
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Trikaal »

All military purchases from Uncle Sam should be linked to non-application of india specific tarrifs. We can't have a military relationship if Trump is screwing us on the economic front. This position should be communicated beyond a shadow of doubt to the US. I fear Trump is pumped up by the success of his chinese tarrifs and will try to replicate it on India while still expecting to sell us billions of dollars of weapons.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by arshyam »

Awesome. Next step when we do something not to khan's liking: "do this, or else those khatara F-16s we gave you last year won't start". So on and so forth.

And many amrikis wonder why almost no one around the world likes them :lol:

P.S. Is there a middle finger icon? :evil:
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Rakesh »

Just as I predicted. The IAF will never accept the F-16 though. You can put lipstick on a pig, but it will still be a pig.

I am surprised they are pushing the F-16. If anything, I thought they would push the F-18 because of the commonality with the Naval Fighter requirement. But then again, shifting the production of the F-16's wing to TASL makes sense.

What was that GYAN again, we were being force fed on BRF during the Single Engine Fighter Contest? :lol:

- US Sanctions? This is not the India of the 1990s!
- To even consider the idea that the US would sanction India today, is being very narrow minded
- The world's oldest democracy and the world's largest democracy are natural partners
- Buying F-16 is India's payment for engine technology from General Electric
- F-16 production will get the ball rolling in "other" sectors of the economy
- India and US are strategic partners vis-a-viv against the Chinese
- India "needs" America to ward off the marauding Chinese
- Upgrading other nations' F-16s...parts, parts, parts!!!

And what else other nonsense we were being spoon fed, by the risk assessor and his friends.

I guess we will have to continue singing Hum Honge Kamayab and revel in strategic autonomy :)
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by arshyam »

It shows they are not serious either. They know that we'd never buy the F-16, but if they pushed the F-18 via this threat, even that potential sale will go away, as we will not buy anything under a threat.

P.S. The "engine start" issue is good enough to not buy the F-18 either. Tejas with GE engines are risky enough.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Rakesh »

Shyam, what is this engine start issue?

The JETJWG (Jet Joint Working Group) has gone the way of the dodo.

If they sanction India (please do it!!), the GE F404 engine will be among them.

That will affect the Tejas program, but that will light a fire at GTRE.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Rakesh »

https://twitter.com/vkthakur/status/1052057334728589315 ---> The idea of a G2G deal with the US to acquire & locally manufacture F-16 fighter jets in India in order to appease Trump and avoid CAATSA sanctions is abhorrent. India is not under any grave threat. The media hype about a collusive two front war is Quixotic tilting at windmills.

https://twitter.com/vkthakur/status/1052057929938022400 ---> In school our teachers would say India is a rich country inhabited by the poor. Now I am inclined to feel that India is a militarily strong nation inhabited by the weak. At this rate, no amount of weapons will make us feel strong.

https://twitter.com/vkthakur/status/1053465593632956416 ---> I've steadfastly compared the US to the ruthless Venetian moneylender in Shakespeare's Merchant of Venice. Actually, with its brazenness, the US may well have left Shylock far behind! I don't believe the Defence Ministry or the Prime Minister's Office could think differently!
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by arshyam »

Rakesh wrote:Shyam, what is this engine start issue?
Just a metaphor saar, for spare parts being withheld, grounded fleet, etc. Just like the Seakings a couple of decades ago. Steps to make part of our fleet inoperable.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by chetak »

Rakesh wrote:Shyam, what is this engine start issue?

The JETJWG (Jet Joint Working Group) has gone the way of the dodo.

If they sanction India (please do it!!), the GE F404 engine will be among them.

That will affect the Tejas program, but that will light a fire at GTRE.
It will also affect kaveri.

some of the alloys used have been chosen rather unwisely.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Trikaal »

chetak wrote:
It will also affect kaveri.

some of the alloys used have been chosen rather unwisely.
Can't we stock up on alloys or buy those from friendly countries like france and russia in case we get sanctioned ?
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Bharadwaj »

Our PM does not appear to be the sort of person who responds well to threats. The U.S will permanently destroy any strategic alliance if they go ahead with this silly move.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by souravB »

It is the Trump way of doing business. Talk tough first and then appear to make compromises from a strong point. We already have many examples of this.
Our government must make some noise during the meetings and occasionally leak a thing or two in the press afterwards.
It is going to set a very bad precedence if we give concessions now while we are at the stronger point.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Kashi »

This time Amreeki deep state seems to have fully co-oopted the opposition in their scheme as well. It used to done slyly and in shadows in the past, but they are quite brazen about it this time.

Interesting times ahead; are we going to find out what Confucius supposedly implied with the famous "quoting" of his?
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Zynda »

How will this CAATSA sanctions if applied, affect the purchase of hardwares like MRH S-70 from YooEss?

Also will sanctions affect Lockeed airframe components fab operations at TASL in HYD? More importantly, will it affect on-going C-17, C-180, P-8I PBL programs?

I guess certain hardwares like Guardian drones are more required than others...so I do except some sort of appeasement/mitigation moves by GoI. Perhaps US is using excuse of F-16s to get a more favourable deal with F-18s, which Trump can brandish to his domestic audiences about his clever ways of making deals. With Rafale being a pariah due to unwanted allegations, guess the next aircraft IAF & IN (IN doesn't have a choice) prefer would be F-18s...
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Rakesh »

Zynda, it is the IN that would want the F-18 because it is a twin engine bird and the Navy wants a twin engine bird as it next carrier borne fighter. The only competitor to the F-18 is the Rafale M.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by chetak »

Rakesh wrote:Zynda, it is the IN that would want the F-18 because it is a twin engine bird and the Navy wants a twin engine bird as it next carrier borne fighter. The only competitor to the F-18 is the Rafale M.

The IN has already learnt a very bitter lesson with the US sanctions earlier.

Left to itself, it will not touch the teens, even with a long bargepole.

Who would be foolish enough to want to learn the same lesson all over again??

That the US is always duplicitous and will speak with a forked tongue is a given.

Their self interests are ingrained to superpower imperatives and change fluidly according to their engagements with various regional situations, reorienting with momentary and passing alignment with some arcane interests of their "allies".

India falls squarely within the "used tissue" category, bound for the garbage can, sooner, if not later. Their obsessive worldwide hegemonistic thrust is driven by their barely disguised "religious freedom" initiatives which form the base of their vote banks and it means "our religious freedom" and not the "religious freedom" of others.

Just look at the way the F-16 sale is being pitched to India, in the background of CAATSA and the threat of sanctions. With increased purchases of weapon systems from the US, we have willingly placed a garrote around our own necks and the US is only tightening that garrote now.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by abhik »

Good thing about the US is they do this somewhat openly, I refuse to believe we buy all those tin-cans etc. from Russia & others because we actually need that junk, and they are such good "friends".

We have put ourselves in a position of paying hafta to multiple goondas, if we increase the payment to one goonda then all the others will come running asking their rates to be increased also.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Rakesh »

Chetak, if you are referring to the Sea King spares fiasco - due to sanctions from Pokharan ‘98 - the Indian Navy got over that when the Malabar Exercises really got underway in the late 2000s along with America’s Look East policy to keep China in check. Presently, the trajectories of both are only going up. America wants to create a choke hold around China in the South China Sea and the Philippine Sea and need countries in the region to hop on board the American bandwagon.

When the Malabar Exercises shifted from VBBS drills, fuel transfers from replenishment ships to combat vessels and personnel transfers - during the exercise - between the IN and US navies to more of a carrier battle group focus, is when the IN got seriously interested in the American CVBG concept and the tremendous advantages and leverage that such a force structure can influence a conflict. I am sure you remember Rear Admiral Surendra Ahuja - now retired - who was among the lead proponents of a nuclear powered, EMALS equipped, F-18 Super Hornet embarking aircraft carrier. That proposal - at least the nuclear powered aspect - got soundly shot down in the MoD last year due to the high cost involved and with neither the BARC or the IN wanting to invest money - from their own budgets - in developing the reactor.

Even if you remove INS Vishaal (and all the expensive toys that come with it), the IN has favoured Sikorsky’s MH-60R naval helicopter as the Sea King Mk42 replacement. From a platform perspective, the MH-60R is a valuable and proven workhorse. One cannot have an effective CVBG without a robust ASW component, of which a reliable naval helicopter is a definite must. It is the unreliability of the American political climate that is the worry.

Alignment with America - from the US point of view - is viewed as a Lord & Serf type relationship. You have been given the esteemed honour of operationing American platforms, so now you obligated (and required) to follow the American geopolitical view of the world. That is big turn off (and relationship killer) to Indian policy makers. I believe it was Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj - in reference to CAATSA - that said that India only recognizes UN laws and not laws imposed upon India by another foreign nation.

Alignment with America - from the Indian point of view - still follows very much the non-aligned thesis. While we appreciate the closer relationship between our two nations and while we agree that China is a real threat, our relationship and our geopolitical view of the world cannot and must not be dictated by a foreign power, including you. That was conveyed in very clear terms by Defence Minster Sitharaman to the Americans when the S-400 purchase was close to signing.

If the IN wants EMALS and wants to emulate the American model of carrier operations, the F-18 is key. Even if no EMALS come, the only other country that operates a catapult type aircraft carrier is France and guess where that catapult system is from? From the Americans onlee! Rafale Ms operating from the French carrier Charles De Gaulle, use an American catapult system for recovery.

Point of this long rant of mine, is the IN - willing or grudgingly - will have to adopt the F-18, if it is invested in the idea of USN style carrier ops. It is the only bird - as per Boeing - that can operate off the Vikramaditya and the new Vikrant (both ski jump carriers) with a decent payload. I am not very confident in Dassault’s suggestion of the Rafale Ms having detachable wings (to fit on the lifts). That will not work or at least I cannot see how effective that will be for intensive carrier operations.

Apart from that issue - and it is a deal breaker - the Rafale M can definitely hold her own against the F-18 Super Hornet, at least for what the IN intends to do with their next carrier borne fighter. The other viable option is to lay the keel for a stretched Vikrant (with wider lifts) to accommodate the Rafale M. And yes, she will be a ski jump, at least till we figure out our own catapult system like the Chinese have. And have the Vikrant and Vikramaditya operate the MiG-29K and if I may be so bold to say, the naval Tejas Mk2 :)

And thus the F-16 offer is puzzling to me. If anything, the F-18 would have made more sense from a commanality stand point for the IAF and the IN. Or perhaps the F-16 for the IAF is part one of the CASTSA waiver and the second part is the F-18 for the IN. In this way, both Boeing and Lockheed Martin hit a home run.

The initial cost for the 110 fighters for the IAF will be anywhere between $15 - $20 billion (after you factor in the factory, tooling, jigs, weapons and the bare bones aircraft itself). The decades of maintenance after will be even more billions. The naval fighter contest has an initial estimated cost of $15 billion, with maintenance expected to be also in the billions over her length of service.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by kit »

Buy the F16 so we have more leverage on you
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Trikaal »

I think one thing is clear now, whoever takes the decision to buy F-16 for India now will become politically untouchable. I don't know if any party is willing to torpedo itself. By making public threats, US have forced the Indian hand on both S-400 forst and now on this issue. US know this as well. So this is just bluster to make India compromise on other issues, namely trade and maybe some other defense platform.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Austin »

If you buy F-16 for S-400 today tommorow they would ask to buy F-18 for Krivak deal , something else for 2nd Akula lease and so on and so forth .......this is sheer madness and threat to any independent sovereign foreign policy and survival of India as independent power and not a lackey of some other power.

We never faced such threats even during cold war that US is not putting on us. We cannot any any equal respecting relationship with such threat
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by JayS »

Austin wrote:If you buy F-16 for S-400 today tommorow they would ask to buy F-18 for Krivak deal , something else for 2nd Akula lease and so on and so forth .......this is sheer madness and threat to any independent sovereign foreign policy and survival of India as independent power and not a lackey of some other power.

We never faced such threats even during cold war that US is not putting on us. We cannot any any equal respecting relationship with such threat
Equal relationship is fallacy. US knows no such thing. They only know Master state - client state relationship. Anyway its foolish to expect equal-equal relationship when we have a big begging bowl all the time in our one hand when we move forward another hand for shaking.

Despite all known disadvantages GOI has willingly walked in the booby traps by buying more and more weapons systems from US and signing treaties like COMCASA. And I don't see things changing in coming time, only accelerating. This game is US' to loose. All they have to do is not try to push India to corner too hard. I am sure there are many in GOI who would consider it a fair bargain to buy one of the teen fighters as quid pro quo.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by souravB »

Are we considering this quid pro quo type news might be floated by one of the teen lobby in south block. We do not have a dearth of DDMs who would happily publish unverified, hypothetical and fed stories to score some money.
This is a psychological pressure that these MNCs would put to get the deal.
IMO getting any of the teens would cost same amount of money to get Rafales now after the initial cost already paid and GoI doesn't have that kind of money anyway.
The sanctions if applied would be on specific organisations, would not be a blanket ban. In this case, are they going to sanction IAF? I do not think so.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Cain Marko »

chetak wrote:
Rakesh wrote:Zynda, it is the IN that would want the F-18 because it is a twin engine bird and the Navy wants a twin engine bird as it next carrier borne fighter. The only competitor to the F-18 is the Rafale M.

The IN has already learnt a very bitter lesson with the US sanctions earlier.

Left to itself, it will not touch the teens, even with a long bargepole.

Who would be foolish enough to want to learn the same lesson all over again??
.
Hainji waat about p8 buy? Sea guardian and mh60 are in the pipeline. I say we be pragmatic about this and buy a refurbed cvn from the US for free ala Gorshkov in exchange for buying a full airwing of f18s..
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by chetak »

JayS wrote:
Austin wrote:If you buy F-16 for S-400 today tommorow they would ask to buy F-18 for Krivak deal , something else for 2nd Akula lease and so on and so forth .......this is sheer madness and threat to any independent sovereign foreign policy and survival of India as independent power and not a lackey of some other power.

We never faced such threats even during cold war that US is not putting on us. We cannot any any equal respecting relationship with such threat
Equal relationship is fallacy. US knows no such thing. They only know Master state - client state relationship. Anyway its foolish to expect equal-equal relationship when we have a big begging bowl all the time in our one hand when we move forward another hand for shaking.

Despite all known disadvantages GOI has willingly walked in the booby traps by buying more and more weapons systems from US and signing treaties like COMCASA. And I don't see things changing in coming time, only accelerating. This game is US' to loose. All they have to do is not try to push India to corner too hard. I am sure there are many in GOI who would consider it a fair bargain to buy one of the teen fighters as quid pro quo.
It will be the beginning of a very slippery slope.

With the pakis now firmly out of the ameriki coop, they need another bakhra to replace them and what better bakhra than India??

Very potent, completely apolitical, and highly disciplined Armed Forces controlled by venal, corrupt and easily bikhau baboon(s) and politicos. It is like a dream come true for them

Once in, never out. It will be like that "hotel california" song.

The amerikis have learned their lesson with the pakis and we will be the "beneficiaries" of some "enhanced" handling techniques and we will pay through our nose for our own regional emasculation and strategic incarceration, rather like "paying guests" in our own home.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by nvishal »

The f16 push has very little to do with s400 or Russia.

The global defence market is changing fast. The Chinese are slowly becoming a major player in defence exports. The f16 is a very old plane(44 years) but there are many nations that have have yet to acquire a jet capability as the f16. The problem for the f16 is the j17 which is much cheaper. In the next 15-20 years, the j17 could be in service in a dozen states around the world.

The Americans are able to see in the future and they understand the threat posed with Chinese fast becoming a supplier of defence hardware. The Americans want the f16 to be assembled in India because they believe it will lower its cost and enable it to compete with the j17. This is almost a strategic imperative for them. When GoI was unresponsive, they approached tata on their own accord(without Delhi). They are now trying to manufacturer some f16 components locally. All this is not a coincidence but a planned execution of their "to-do" list.

The question is, if India is not interested in the f16, will india allow the Americans to make the f16 locally? What are the security implications? Is it wise for india to help the Americans to contain a growing China?
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by ArjunPandit »

chetak wrote:
It will be the beginning of a very slippery slope.

With the pakis now firmly out of the ameriki coop, they need another bakhra to replace them and what better bakhra than India??

Very potent, completely apolitical, and highly disciplined Armed Forces controlled by venal, corrupt and easily bikhau baboon(s) and politicos. It is like a dream come true for them

Once in, never out. It will be like that "hotel california" song.

The amerikis have learned their lesson with the pakis and we will be the "beneficiaries" of some "enhanced" handling techniques and we will pay through our nose for our own regional emasculation and strategic incarceration, rather like "paying guests" in our own home.
Sir, I would not count packees out of american camp. They might have gone to the paramour for few years, but america is their husband. In true malsi terms it might be a halala of sorts.
I am afraid packees will come back to the american camp, when their ghaghara is down wrt india and dump china. The taller than mt ghazipur friendship means nothing when it comes to enemity with India. In fact, pakis with huge IT industry(Int'l Terrorism ) with globally proven tactics can be very useful againt china, not just in xinjian but across mainland china. Imagine AoA followed by explosions or trucks ramming in beijing/shanghai by uighyrs in china. They are serpents and to fight India they can go to any extent.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by JayS »

chetak wrote: It will be the beginning of a very slippery slope.
It will indeed be. And I am not so sure GOI will avoid going there. I rest my hope on Babudom to scuttle teen acquisition. :lol:
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Kashi »

JayS wrote:I rest my hope on Babudom to scuttle teen acquisition. :lol:
The will to scuttle will be tested with the carrot of GCs for the "kith and kin".
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by chetak »

Kashi wrote:
JayS wrote:I rest my hope on Babudom to scuttle teen acquisition. :lol:
The will to scuttle will be tested with the carrot of GCs for the "kith and kin".
and the numbers who "migrate" to US/UK/canada after retirement :mrgreen:
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Kakarat »

https://twitter.com/livefist/status/1054349600503578625
FYI: Indian MoD denies @IndianExpress report (https://bit.ly/2yon7fS ) that said the U.S. has specifically offered India a sanctions waiver on the Russian S-400 missile deal if India selected to buy & build F-16 fighters.
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Cain Marko »

JayS wrote:
chetak wrote: It will be the beginning of a very slippery slope.
It will indeed be. And I am not so sure GOI will avoid going there. I rest my hope on Babudom to scuttle teen acquisition. :lol:
Then you might be resting your hope on a slippery slope Saar. Babus like their brats to be in US schools.. And US deals being g2g are often very promptly processed.
chetak
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by chetak »

Rakesh wrote:Chetak, if you are referring to the Sea King spares fiasco....

............
who was among the lead proponents of a nuclear powered, EMALS equipped, F-18 Super Hornet embarking aircraft carrier.
Saar,

At the level of the people you have mentioned, not even a ripple will take place in policy. It requires the buy in of real heavyweights both at the HQ level and at the ministry (MOD and MOFin) level with real blessings to make even the slightest headway.

There are other real heavyweights already lined up in opposition and who have already weighed in rather forcefully against this idea. No prizes for guessing who but then I suspect that you already know.
Austin
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Austin »

India will pay for the S-400 systems in rubles or rupees.

https://www.interfax.ru/world/634587?utm_source=top


Should be great for us , No need to spend forex ....with rouble rupee arrangement here to stay India buy from Russia will only increase
Cain Marko
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Re: CAATSA...An Oxymoron?

Post by Cain Marko »

Austin wrote:India will pay for the S-400 systems in rubles or rupees.

https://www.interfax.ru/world/634587?utm_source=top


Should be great for us , No need to spend forex ....with rouble rupee arrangement here to stay India buy from Russia will only increase
I think Trump knows this and is doing a wink wink nod nod, expect those forex reserved to be expected on some fresh US kit. Way I see it, if modi wins 2019, more purchases will happen all around...krivak, akula,mki upg with Russia, Rafale with France, sea guardians, mh60, and God knows what else from the US.
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