Iran News and Discussions

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Peregrine
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Iran News and Discussions

Post by Peregrine »

X Posted on the Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion Thread

India set to pay for Iranian oil using rupee from November: Sources – Reuters

NEW DELHI: India will settle payments for Iranian oil using through local banks starting in November as will make it difficult to settle trades through European banks, two industry sources said on Thursday.

In May, US President Donald Trump withdrew from a 2015 nuclear accord with Iran and ordered the renewal of US sanctions. Some sanctions took effect from August 6 while those affecting the oil and banking sectors will start from November 4.

"We are bracing up for any eventuality we have to make a payment and we don't want to default on making payments," one of the sources said.

The sources said India has selected UCO Bank and IDBI Bank for facilitating payment to Iran.

Indian refiners are currently using State Bank of India and Germany-based Europaeisch-Iranische Handelsbank AG to buy Iranian oil in euros. SBI has told refiners it would stop handling Iran payments from November.

The second source said after the United States announced it would re-impose sanctions in May, Iran has already received payments for some cargoes in rupee.

Reuters in June reported that India is looking to revive the its earlier rupee payment mechanism with Iran. During the previous sanctions regime, India adopted a barter-like scheme to buy oil from Iran while the Middle Eastern country used rupees to import goods from India.

"Previously we settled 45 per cent of our trade in rupees this time it could be 100 per cent. We have to mutually decide the number," said the first source.

India, Iran's top oil client after China, is still seeking some exemptions to the sanctions from the US though some refiners have already curtailed purchases because of insurance issues tied to the sanctions.

IDBI did not respond to requests for a comment while UCO Bank's Managing Director R K Takkar did not respond to phone calls seeking comment

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Philip
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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Post by Philip »

The bloody attack on a mil. parade killing at least 24 has been blamed by Iran as the handiwork of the Saudis, US and Israel.An obscure outfit has claimed responsibility as well as ISIS,and we all know who the sponsors of ISIS are.

Having been thrown out of Syria by the Syro-Ru- Iranian triad, the west and Wahaabi Arabs look at mischief in Iran as the next plan for regional dominance.For long Israel has wanted to wage war against Iran and the US has been waging a non-stop covert war using the CIA to undermind the regime.

India's historic ties with Iran, our key oil supplier and part ner in the Chahbahar port project is in the crossfire of US sanction threats over our oil supplies and the port JV.Watch developments in Iran v.carefully.This attack is the first step in the covert war to overthrow the regime by the Sunni coalition and its western allies.
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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Post by ramana »

Recall attack on Masood before 9/11. I think Paki hand is there.
Rouhani did not attend as he was ill.
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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Post by Philip »

A Sadat style op.Could very well be an ISI hand in it to please their Soothi birthers and prove Captain Khan's credentials.....for a transfusion of riyals for his bankrupt
outfit. His stunt selling off the fancy state cars to augment fmpth coffers was a monumental flop. The Soothis always shoot from someone else' s shoulders or outsource the task.As a famous wit said, " they'll
fight to the last American!"

PS: And the Pakis will fight to the last Talibunny!

PPS: Capt.Khan has just invited the Soothis to join the Chin CPEC/OBOR bandwagon and replenish his empty coffers.The Pakis are desperate for hard cash as any IMF handout would come with crushing compliances thanks to Donny boy.It wants to avoid that by sh* gging the Soothis.
Ramana was spot on.It all adds up.This new unknown outfit that did the Iranian attack was an ISI op as desperate Pak is bankrupt and Capt. Khan has no money for his batsmen's ball- guards!
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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Post by A_Gupta »

X-Post on India-US relations
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... nd=premium
India Is Cutting Imports of Iranian Oil to Zero in November
By Debjit Chakraborty
, Dhwani Pandya
, and Javier Blas
September 25, 2018, 12:43 PM EDT

Biggest Indian refiners haven’t asked for November oil cargoes
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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Post by Philip »

Stupid panic-wallahs even before Trump acts! Spineless MEA why few take India seriously.

The EU, Russia, China and Iran have just agreed on the sidelines of the UNGA to form an SPV for trade with it , including oil exports, meanz of payments, etc., provided the cos. doing biz with these foreign nations do not violate the EU- Iran N-deal.This will by- pass US sanctions and the SPV will be available to other nations also.The EU is determined that the Iran N-deal which took decades to seal is not dumped by Iran if ghe US tries to cripple its economh through sanctikns.

All India has to do now is to join this bandwagon, but do we have the ghoolies for it, or will we yet again behave as impotent eunuchs whenever Uncle Sam farts! It is so clear that India is nowhere in the global top order when it comes to resolving international disputes.China is pro- active and even " Little Britain" punches above its weight.
India only talks but cannot walk the talk sadly even after the arrival of PM Modi.A thorough spring-cleaning is needed to waste the surrender-eating monkeys in the MEA whose ambition for India is merely to replace Pak as Uncle Sam's rent- boy in the region.
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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Post by ramana »

Philip, Its not that simple.

India is getting its energy supplies from elsewhere.

Let them duke it out.

When you have no dog in the fight don't bark.
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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Post by ShyamSP »

Philip wrote:Stupid panic-wallahs even before Trump acts! Spineless MEA why few take India seriously.

The EU, Russia, China and Iran have just agreed on the sidelines of the UNGA to form an SPV for trade with it , including oil exports, meanz of payments, etc., provided the cos. doing biz with these foreign nations do not violate the EU- Iran N-deal.This will by- pass US sanctions and the SPV will be available to other nations also.The EU is determined that the Iran N-deal which took decades to seal is not dumped by Iran if ghe US tries to cripple its economh through sanctikns.

All India has to do now is to join this bandwagon, but do we have the ghoolies for it, or will we yet again behave as impotent eunuchs whenever Uncle Sam farts! It is so clear that India is nowhere in the global top order when it comes to resolving international disputes.China is pro- active and even " Little Britain" punches above its weight.
India only talks but cannot walk the talk sadly even after the arrival of PM Modi.A thorough spring-cleaning is needed to waste the surrender-eating monkeys in the MEA whose ambition for India is merely to replace Pak as Uncle Sam's rent- boy in the region.
India is acting as wimp in strategic areas with respect to resources needed for the country. It might have gotten deal from US to deal with China if it goes along with it on Iran. Iran is permanent thorn to full control of resources for US state. They tried with Obama via friendly policies may be without much expected results of Iran yielding. Now they are trying newer tactics with the so-called rebel who is projected as loose canon for US deep state. Ultimately goal of the west (US, EU & co) has been to continue to keep world in control by reducing alternative economic sphere (Russia, Iran & co) to untenable position. After all these tactics if China capitulates a little bit, India will be distanced in the game with loss of existing leverage on Iran.
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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Post by Parasu »

Philip wrote:Stupid panic-wallahs even before Trump acts! Spineless MEA why few take India seriously.

The EU, Russia, China and Iran have just agreed on the sidelines of the UNGA to form an SPV for trade with it , including oil exports, meanz of payments, etc., provided the cos. doing biz with these foreign nations do not violate the EU- Iran N-deal.This will by- pass US sanctions and the SPV will be available to other nations also.The EU is determined that the Iran N-deal which took decades to seal is not dumped by Iran if ghe US tries to cripple its economh through sanctikns.

All India has to do now is to join this bandwagon, but do we have the ghoolies for it, or will we yet again behave as impotent eunuchs whenever Uncle Sam farts! It is so clear that India is nowhere in the global top order when it comes to resolving international disputes.China is pro- active and even " Little Britain" punches above its weight.
India only talks but cannot walk the talk sadly even after the arrival of PM Modi.A thorough spring-cleaning is needed to waste the surrender-eating monkeys in the MEA whose ambition for India is merely to replace Pak as Uncle Sam's rent- boy in the region.
Indian aim is and should be to do good for its people. Economic and social welfare of the country is written into the constitution. 25% of the people live below poverty line in the country. Doing chest thumping by MEA wont get bread for these people. Getting close to the Soviet Union didnot get us 7-8% economic growth. Capitalism and investment from US/West did.
According to roos lovers, we must go around lecturing everyone on correctness and impropriety rather than seeking out our own interests. If China has an economy 6 times that of India today and it can stand up to the US, it is because of the US and western investments in the country for the last 30 years.
If H&D is so important than we should say f@ck you to the UN security council in toto. After all, it is discriminatory in nature too. Let us go the North Korea way. At least, we will keep our H&D intact.
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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Post by Lisa »

Philip wrote:Stupid panic-wallahs even before Trump acts! Spineless MEA why few take India seriously.

The EU, Russia, China and Iran have just agreed on the sidelines of the UNGA to form an SPV for trade with it , including oil exports, meanz of payments, etc., provided the cos. doing biz with these foreign nations do not violate the EU- Iran N-deal.This will by- pass US sanctions and the SPV will be available to other nations also.The EU is determined that the Iran N-deal which took decades to seal is not dumped by Iran if ghe US tries to cripple its economh through sanctikns.

All India has to do now is to join this bandwagon, but do we have the ghoolies for it, or will we yet again behave as impotent eunuchs whenever Uncle Sam farts! It is so clear that India is nowhere in the global top order when it comes to resolving international disputes.China is pro- active and even " Little Britain" punches above its weight.
India only talks but cannot walk the talk sadly even after the arrival of PM Modi.A thorough spring-cleaning is needed to waste the surrender-eating monkeys in the MEA whose ambition for India is merely to replace Pak as Uncle Sam's rent- boy in the region.
Philipji,

I am missing something in your argument. Please help me.

India's trade with USA = $74.3 Billion

India Diaspora in the US = 4,121,944

VS

India's trade with Iran = $13.13 Billion

India Diaspora in Iran = 800

References are,

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_t ... s_of_India

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-resid ... ian_origin

Why would India want to antagonise the US to accommodate Iran. Where do her real interests lie after considering the above? Help me with an opinion.
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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Post by uddu »

You guys are pretty silly fighting as if Iranians and U.S are enemies. Iran wants U.S Dollars and always insisted on U.S dollars for payment for oil. They never considered our Rupee and said let the Satan's dollar go to hell, we will get INR and buy stuff from India. Never. So we are weighing in option and find that it's not prudent to do business with Iran using USD and hence waiting for them to make arrangement for accepting INR. Once that's done, i think we will go ahead and import Iranian oil. Until then it's not worth it.
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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Post by habal »

Reason why India is reluctant in closing down its market from Iran is:

-It provides Oil at low rates
-Lowest transportation cost,
-60 day credit purchase (no other country provides) and
-Acess to Afganistan via Chabahar Port
https://twitter.com/IndianDefenceRA/sta ... 6426773509

https://twitter.com/jkenney/status/1042832893985214464
India needs oil to fuel their rapidly growing economy.
Image

Daily oil consumption per capita

India: 0.4 liter
China: 1 liter
Russia: 3 liters
UK: 4 liters
Japan: 6 liters
US: 10 liters
Saudi Arabia: 16 liters

India’s 1.3 billion people want more oil.
Image
India’s Crude Oil Demand To Hit 500 Million Tonnes By 2040
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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Post by Philip »

Stunning ICJ verdict."The US must lift sanctions against Iran regarding humanitarian goods duch as .edicines and med. devices, food,and agri. commodities", said rhe chief judge of the UN's top court.The US will of course ignore it but it will encourage other nations to ignore the US's sanction diktat against Iran.
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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Post by Kashi »

uddu wrote:You guys are pretty silly fighting as if Iranians and U.S are enemies. Iran wants U.S Dollars and always insisted on U.S dollars for payment for oil. They never considered our Rupee and said let the Satan's dollar go to hell, we will get INR and buy stuff from India.
Didn't a few recent reports say that India was paying for Iranian oil in Euros.
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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Post by Rony »

Iranian clerics in Kashmir under watch
The Centre has red-flagged the visit of Iranian clerics to Jammu and Kashmir amid reports of fiery speeches being given by them at congregations and mosques.

The immediate trigger seems to be the posters of Hizbul Mujahideen “commander” Burhan Wani that surfaced during a Muharram procession in Kashmir last month.

Hizbul is a Sunni militant group.

Muharram is a month in the Islamic calendar and it is a period of mourning for Shia Muslims.

Imran Ansari, Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) legislator from Pattan in north Kashmir, said that two men associated with the Hurriyat Conference flashed the banners of Wani at the procession.

“This should not have happened. We were mourning Imam Hussain … this is the first time that such a thing happened. Wani’s posters appeared as there were attempts to politicise the mourning. That is not the mandate,” Mr. Ansari said.

Visit regularly

He also said that though clerics from Iran regularly visited Kashmir Valley, no cleric gave any fiery speech during Muharram.

J&K Governor Satya Pal Mallik had earlier told The Hindu that inquiries were on about the visit of the Iranian maulvis.

Mr. Ansari explained that the Iranian clergy had a permanent office in Delhi, Daftar-e-Rahbari, that is under their direct supervision. “They have schools in Kashmir and Kargil … the Iranian clerics do come. But this Muharram no one came … the posters of Burhan Wani were flashed in one of the daayras (rally). There were 48 others,” he said.

A senior government official said they were watching the speeches being given by religious leaders including those by Shia leaders. “Since they come here for religious sermons, they are easily given visas. We are checking if they violated visa provisions,” the official said.

Iranian threat via Tehran times in response to the above Chindu report
Meanwhile, the news has drawn anger and outrage among Kashmir’s Shia community and clergy, who see it as part of a larger design to intimidate people.

“Iranian clerics come here on invitations and they give speeches but not “fiery speeches”,” said a young cleric based in Kashmir, wishing anonymity. “It is nothing but an intimidating tactic to bully us, but it won’t work. They have already banned our processions in main city, now they cannot stop our clerics from giving sermons.”

Pertinently, in Srinagar, the capital of Kashmir, the government’s ban on Muharram processions (Muharram 8 and 10) is in place since 1990, when the armed rebellion against Indian rule gathered momentum. Despite repeated pleas by Shia leaders, the ban has not been lifted.

Each year, police impose curfew-like restrictions on Muharram 8 and 10 in parts of Srinagar city, including Lal Chowk, the nerve-center of Srinagar. Iron barricades and spools of concertina wires are put up at every entry point. The fully-armed police personnel do not even allow pedestrian movement as tough restrictions are enforced.

However, as a mark of protest against the ban, mourners take out peaceful mourning procession in the main city every year. Each time, they are intercepted by massive contingents of heavily-armed police and paramilitary personnel. They fire tear smoke canisters, resort to baton charge and brutally manhandle the mourners participating in these processions
.
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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Post by Rony »

double post. delete
Last edited by Rony on 04 Oct 2018 09:24, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by Rony »

France points finger at Iran over bomb plot, seizes assets
France said on Tuesday there was no doubt Iran's intelligence ministry was behind a June plot to attack an exiled opposition group's rally outside Paris and it seized assets belonging to Tehran's intelligence services and two Iranian nationals.

The hardening of relations between Paris and Tehran could have far-reaching consequences for Iran as President Hassan Rouhani's government looks to European capitals to salvage a 2015 nuclear deal after the United States pulled out and reimposed tough sanctions on Iran
.
The source, speaking after the government announced asset freezes, added that the deputy minister and director general of intelligence, Saeid Hashemi Moghadam, had ordered the attack and Assadollah Asadi, a Vienna-based diplomat held by German authorities, had put it into action.

The ministry is under control of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
.
The plot targeted a meeting of the Paris-based National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) outside the French capital. U.S. President Donald Trump's lawyer Rudy Giuliani and several former European and Arab ministers attended the rally
.
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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Post by Rony »

delete
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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Post by habal »

US considering waivers on Iran oil sanctions: US official
https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2018/10/ ... sanctions-
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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Post by Philip »

4 days to go before Trump unleashes his threat of a naval blockade of Iran and prevention of any Iranian oil exports.Russia, China and India have warned of military measures to protect their shipping. Iran has threatened to prevent any oil from transiting thd Gulf. 4 days to hell?
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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Post by komal »

News reports say that the USA has granted waivers to all of Iran's largest oil buyers (inlcuding India)
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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Post by g.sarkar »

https://www.goodreturns.in/news/2018/11 ... client-rss
US To Waive Iranian Sanctions On Oil For 8 Nations Including India
By Olga Robert, Friday, November 2, 2018.
The US has agreed to let eight countries including India and Japan to continue buying oil from Iran after the reimposed sanctions on the oil producer kick-in next week, as per a Bloomberg report citing sources that do not wish to be identified. The other two countries that were named in the report were China and South Korea, however, the terms of the waiver for the former is still in discussions, it said.
.....
Gautam
PS: 8 countries mean the oil sanctions will not be meaningful.
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Iran News and Discussions

Post by Peregrine »

India inks pact with Iran to pay crude bill in rupee

NEW DELHI: India has signed an agreement with Iran to pay for crude oil it imports from the Persian Gulf nation in rupees, sources in know of the development said.

The memorandum of understanding (MoU) was signed following the US letting India and seven other nations to keep buying Iranian oil despite sanctions were re-imposed on the Islamic state on November 5.

Sources said Indian refiners will make rupee payments in a UCO Bank account of the National Iranian Oil Co (NIOC).

Half of these funds would be earmarked for settling payments for exports of Indian goods to Iran, they added.

Under US sanctions, India can export food grains, medicines and medical devices to Iran.

India had won the exemption after it agreed to cut imports and escrow payments.

Under the 180-day exemption, India is allowed to import a maximum of 300,000 barrels a day of crude oil. This compares to an average daily import of about 560,000 barrels this year.

India, which is the second biggest purchaser of Iranian oil after China, has since then restricted its monthly purchase to 1.25 million tonne or 15 million tonne in a year (300,000 barrels per day), down from 22.6 million tonne (452,000 barrels per day) bought in 2017-18 financial year,[/b] sources said.

Two of its refiners -- Indian Oil Corp (IOC) and Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd (MRPL) -- bought 1.25 million tonne of oil from Iran in November and December.

India, the world's third biggest oil consumer, meets more than 80 per cent of its oil needs through imports. Iran is its third largest supplier after Iraq and Saudi Arabia and meets about 10 per cent of total needs.

US President Donald Trump in May withdrew from the 2015 nuclear accord with Iran, re-imposing economic sanctions on the Persian Gulf nation. Some sanctions took effect from August 6, while those affecting the oil and banking sectors will start from November 5.

Prior to this, India paid its third largest oil supplier in euros using European banking channels. These channels got blocked from November.

During the first round of sanctions when EU joined the US in imposing financial restrictions, India initially used a Turkish bank to pay Iran for the oil it bought. Beginning February 2013, India paid 45 per cent of the oil import bill in rupees while keeping the remainder pending till the opening of payment routes. It began clearing the dues in 2015 when the restrictions were eased.

Sources said New Delhi may export goods, including wheat, soybean meal and consumer products, to Iran during the exemption period.

Iran was the India's second biggest supplier of crude oil after Saudi Arabia till 2010-11 but Western sanctions over the Persian Gulf nation's suspected nuclear programme relegated it to the seventh spot in the subsequent years. In 2013-14 and 2014-15, India bought 11 million tonne and 10.95 million tonne crude, respectively from Iran.

Sourcing from Iran increased to 12.7 million tonne in 2015-16, giving it the sixth spot. In the following year, the Iranian supplies jumped to 27.2 million tonne to catapult it to the third spot.

Iranian oil is a lucrative buy for refiners as the Persian Gulf nation provides 60 days of credit for purchases, terms not available from suppliers of substitute crudes -- Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, Nigeria and the US.

Besides blocking of banking channels from November, shipping firms are unwilling to transport Iranian oil. To get around this, Iran is using its own ships to transport crude to India. Its insurance companies are also providing insurance cover for such shipments, sources added.

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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Post by Supratik »

India takes over Chahabahar port operation.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 422209.cms
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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Post by ArjunPandit »

Supratik wrote:India takes over Chahabahar port operation.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 422209.cms
It would be interesting to see how trade with Afghanistan evolves. Not that I want it, but it could also evolve as an alternative route for opioid smuggling, which though bad would loosen the strangle hold of paki army on the business
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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Post by Aditya_V »

Have you seen pics of Miranshah and FATA after PAF and PA bombed them into the stone age. See uncle chacha results then you will see its only access to firepower which has subdued the pathans temporarily by the Pakjabis. These routes gives us openings to trade and then arm them, a few iglas etc to bring down some cobras/JF 17's and adequate supply of small arms ammo, rpg and light artillery to tilt the balance. Right now the PA and PAF have the fire power balance which is terrorizing the people.
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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Post by chetak »

India, Iran, Russia look for new trade corridor


India, Iran, Russia look for new trade corridor

7 Nov 2018

Image
India, Russia and Iran explore new route

India, Russia and Iran are meeting next month to work out the details of a massive project to open a new sea-land transport corridor that would be a cheaper and shorter alternative to shipping oil and other goods through the Suez Canal.

According to RT, the North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), the name for the new transit route, will connect India to Russia and Europe via a combination of sea routes and an overland passage through Iran, according to Iranian state-owned news outlet Press TV. The 7,200-kilometers long corridor will reduce the time and costs of shipping by up to 40%. Transport time between Mumbai and Moscow will fall to 20 days. The annual capacity of the transport artery is expected to reach 30 million tons.

Indian logistics companies presently need to route shipments through China, Europe or Iran to access Central Asian markets. Already, routing shipments through Iran is the least time-consuming option. But the INSTC will have the ancillary benefit of allowing Indian companies to forge a new trade route to Afghanistan without having to travel through Pakistan, as tensions over Kashmir are once again on the rise. The passage corridor through the Persian Gulf will mean billions of dollars in trade for Afghanistan, cutting its dependence on foreign logistics.

Already, India has committed $500 million for developing the Iranian port of Chabahar, which will be a crucial trans-shipment point for transitioning cargo from sea to land. What's more, the arrangement has the blessing of China, which could potentially incorporate the passage into its multi-trillion-dollar 'One Belt, One Road' initiative to build new trade routes connecting China to Europe, Asia and Africa.

Indian officials said they're hoping to start building out the infrastructure required for the route to function as swiftly as possible.

"All issues may be resolved in order to operationalize the (INSTC) route as early as possible," according to Indian Commerce Minister Suresh Prabhu, as quoted by the media.

The alliance of these four countries should unnerve the US. As it stands, the rise in bilateral trade denominated in rubles, yuan and rupees, while modest so far, is set to grow, with plans to eventually undermine the dollar's hegemonic grip on global trade settlement. And with US sanctions on Iran set to take effect on Nov. 4, the Iranian regime only stands to benefit by encouraging the blooming economic partnership between Russia and India, as Russia implements its plan to circumvent the dollar, and, by extension, Treasury Department sanctions.

Russia and India have recently announced that they had sealed a long-discussed $6 billion arms deal despite threats of economic sanctions from Washington.
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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Post by pankajs »

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 446237.cms
Iran: Can use ‘influence’ over Taliban for India

* As Iranian foreign minister meets the Indian leadership, Tehran’s connections with the Taliban are coming out of the closet
* “We have some influence on the Taliban, but we generally use it on behalf of the Afghan government. We’re happy to use it for India too,” an Iranian delegation said
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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Post by Aditya_V »

Taqiah! they are aldready having thier clerics stab us in the back in Kashmir, they view the same way Nadir Shah did.
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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Post by Kashi »

X-post
chetak wrote:the iranis have already made proposals to both the paki and the hans to link the two ports via a rail + road link.

iran is greedy.
If I remember correctly that was before Saudis were on the scene. Now with the Saud firmly planted in Gwadar, will the Iranis (greedy or not) have the same proposal?

Moreover, will the Saud allow the Bakis to link up with Chabahar?
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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Post by Philip »

The Iranians are very p* ssed off with Russia for not activating the S-300 SAM systems during recent Israeli air attacks on Iranian targets in Syria, some alleged arms depots for fhe Hiz.This gives credence to the long-held view that despite some previous incidents, there is a tacit
understanding at the highest levels between Moscow and Jerusalem.
chetak
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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Post by chetak »

Philip wrote:The Iranians are very p* ssed off with Russia for not activating the S-300 SAM systems during recent Israeli air attacks on Iranian targets in Syria, some alleged arms depots for fhe Hiz.This gives credence to the long-held view that despite some previous incidents, there is a tacit
understanding at the highest levels between Moscow and Jerusalem.
as is also there, between riyadh and jerusalem, for the longest time.
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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Post by Vips »

The regional great game.

Two neighbouring countries, Iran and Pakistan, which were trying to remain close, are today moving in opposite directions. This movement is partly pushed by circumstances, evident from the way India’s presence in Chabahar has been recently upgraded and the way Saudi Arabia is increasing its presence in Pakistan.

Last month, on Christmas eve, India formally took over operations of the Chabahar port. India Ports Global company, a joint venture between Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust and Deendayal Port Trust, Kandla, is now functioning from its offices at Shaheed Behesti Port Chabahar. For New Delhi, Chabahar is important to reach out to Afghanistan. In 2017, when this country was hit by drought, India had already shipped 1.1 million tonnes of wheat through Chabahar. Last month, senior bureaucrats of all the three countries, India, Iran and Afghanistan, held the first meeting for the implementation of the trilateral Chabahar agreement signed in 2016. They agreed on the routes for trade and transit corridors between the three countries and, according to the official communique, finalised the protocol to “harmonise transit, roads, customs and consular matters”.

This achievement has something to do with the crisis affecting Iran in the wake of the new round of American sanctions. New Delhi could persuade Washington to exempt Chabahar from these sanctions because, according to the US communiqué, this port “relates to reconstruction assistance and economic development of Afghanistan. These activities are vital for the ongoing support of Afghanistan’s growth and humanitarian relief”.

Iran needs India more than before in order to resist American attempts at isolating it. Ironically, Tehran benefits from good relations between New Delhi and Washington, which also made the waiving of sanctions on oil trade possible: In late 2018, America granted waivers to eight countries including India for importing oil from Iran till March 2019. New Delhi lobbied for such an exemption as Iran is India’s number one oil provider.

Iran’s isolation may further increase India’s leverage in the near future as Tehran will be forced to finalise deals for using local currencies in trade. India and Iran are already working on a Preferential Trade Agreement (PTA) that would reduce tariffs on 80 to 100 products.

Pakistan has similarly been pushed towards Saudi Arabia by the compulsions of financial circumstances. Once again, the country needs to raise money from abroad to make both ends meet and once again the most generous donors are Saudi Arabia and the UAE. In the past few months, the dependence of Pakistan vis-à-vis these two countries has significantly increased because of the aid both countries agreed to give to Islamabad and because of industrial, strategic investments. Facing a major financial crisis, Imran Khan chose Riyadh for his first official foreign visit. In the course of the following six months, and on the occasion of several grand bilateral visits that the assassination of Jamal Khashoggi never affected, he got the assurance from the Saudis that they would help Pakistan to address its balance-of-payment crisis by offering a $6 billion package, while the UAE committed themselves to give $3 billion. Besides, Riyadh decided to invest $10 billion in a refinery in Gwadar. For Riyadh, this move precludes any Iranian presence in Gwadar, contrary to some of the plans talked about in Tehran and Islamabad.

Indeed, Pakistan and Iran tried hard to ameliorate their collaboration till recently. Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff General Qamar Javed Bajwa had paid an important visit to Tehran in October 2017. Such a visit had not taken place for 20 years. The Iranians had been responsive to what he had to offer (some cooperation on missile technology was discussed) (So like offering nuclear bomb technology earlier to Iran for $$$ Pakistani's as is their nature playing double game and are again fooling the Saudis and offering chinese missile technology to Iranians which will be used in the future to target Saudi Arabia :rotfl: )and expressed interest in being part of the RBI by branching the gas pipeline they have already built on CPEC at Gwadar and to connect Chabahar to CPEC too. Possibly because of the US/India rapprochement and in reaction to Trump’s attempts at isolating Iran, Khameini has for the first time mentioned Kashmir in some of his sermons in 2017, comparing this conflict to the Israeli-Palestinian one (The b a s t a r d Iranians cannot be trusted by India :x ). In March 2018 the visit of the Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mohammad Javad Zarif, had enabled the two countries to reiterate their interest in collaboration.

That was in continuation to the decision made in 2015 not to join the Saudi-led coalition fighting the Iran-supported Houthi rebels in Yemen and the attempts Islamabad had made to mediate between Iran and Saudi Arabia under Nawaz Sharif and again under Imran Khan immediately after he took over as PM. While Pakistan will continue to try not to take sides, a significant upgrading of its relations with Iran may become more difficult — saying “no” to Saudi Arabia may also become more difficult.

The Modi government had surprisingly invested in Saudi Arabia and the UAE in the first four years of his term, evident from the invitation to Mohammed bin Zayed as guest of honour on Independence Day in January 2017, at a time when India expected massive investments from the UAE, evident from the Indian PM’s visit to Riyadh in July 2018. Modi and Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud then agreed to sign five MoUs regarding “exchange of intelligence related to money laundering, terrorism financing and related crimes amid the spread of Islamic State and threats from groups in Af-Pak region”. Such collaboration may become more elusive if Saudi Arabia is even more strategically embedded in Pakistan and if both countries become more interdependent.

The implications of this dynamic are particularly negative for Pakistan. Iran will not support Baloch separatists since it is not in its interest to promote Baloch nationalism in its own frontiers, but it can play in Afghanistan a role that will not be to the liking of Islamabad — each country is now harbouring different sections of the Taliban. This issue has gained momentum again with the announcement of American withdrawal by Trump and the beginning of negotiations in Doha.

However, the continuation of the dynamic described above depends upon several factors. In March, the US may ask India to stop importing oil from Iran and Tehran’s goodwill vis-à-vis New Delhi may then turn out to be more tactical than strategic. Similarly, Pakistan-Saudi Arabia equations may not remain as smooth if the latter (and the UAE) seeks to play a major role in Afghanistan-related negotiations at the expense of Pakistan — such a scenario has unfolded in the past.

While the situation remains fluid, the present trends may eventually result in the crystallisation of two axes, bringing Pakistan closer to Saudi Arabia and Iran closer to India and this new regional game. This evolution will foster the Arabisation (or Wahabisation) of Islam in Pakistan. It may also relaunch sectarian tensions in the region under the aegis of foreign countries.
Kati
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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Post by Kati »

Monica Witt: from US intelligence officer to alleged Iranian spy

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/201 ... ranian-spy
ArjunPandit
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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Post by ArjunPandit »

^^Just in case anyone really thinks Iran as a great friend of ours, the 2017-18 sermon on kashmir and the blast on israeli embassy staffer in delhi should be given
Kati
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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Post by Kati »

^^^^
Look beyond some small time irritants. Iran also got pissed off by some GoI's overtly anti-Iran stands. However, look
at the larger picture: - Iran a great counter-balance to fanatic Sunni brigade.

Last but not least, the above article on Monica shows how Iran turns the table on unkil using the same tricks that unkil
employs against other countries.
ramana
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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Post by ramana »

Also hug to MBS keeps Iran close.
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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Post by Vikas »

/Putting my strategic thinker hat on and throwing another option on the table/

If ever the moment comes, IMO dumping Iran for Arabs is probably a better move if GoI considers it. If we have to sleep with Vipers then why not the one who has more control over strategic dimensions.
As long as Iran is at loggerheads with rest of the world, we will always have to do a balancing act.
Iran is not even on our civilizational memory except for one Nadir Shah. If there were any civilizational bonds, they do not exist any more. Not asking to make Iran an enemy but just have basic minimum relationship.
What benefits do we reap to keep our one arm around Iran displaying friendship. Is it only Chabahar ?

Trusting Iran is hard when you know how they will turn up if it ever comes to choosing between India and Pakistan. With Arabs you know that Bakis are at the lowest level of hierarchies pyramids and can always be slapped around via Gulf countries.
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Re: Iran News and Discussions

Post by Neshant »

^^^ There is a convergence of interests on trade and (some) foreign policy.

Keep it at that.

Any plans for collaboration more ambitious than that and it will lead to ruin.

So far things look to be progressing fine as long as the mullahs stick to agreements.
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