Pakistan Armed Forces: News & Discussion

[chola]

^^^ Phhhtttp! Just rockets? Supah powah Pakis be exporting fighter aircraft and chit!

https://mobile.twitter.com/NaveedAliHer ... 3620139009

Azerbaijan to buy JF-17 Blok II combat aircraft from Pakistan | Jf17 Thunder | Urdu Hindi Tv: (link: http://youtu.be/57KE0fJhn4k?a) youtu.be/57KE0fJhn4k?a via
@YouTube

[Manish_P]

I love this bit. Just love it.

ingeniously developing painting [the] A-100 Rocket.

There! Corrected it.

[Khalsa]

I love this bit. Just love it.

ingeniously developing painting [the] A-100 Rocket.

There! Corrected it.

lol
you should not have done that.
We need to to let them believe and build their society as such...
that painting chinese mizziles is developing the missle [a new skin]

[Austin]

PA testing its newly acquired LY 80 SAM from China , Video

https://twitter.com/Ali_answers/status/ ... 1465395202

[rajsunder]

Neither J-20 nor FC-31: Pakistan future Stealth Aircraft JF-20 & JF-17.6 (Project AZM design) Leaked

https://fighterjetsworld.com/2019/01/13 ... gn-leaked/



my understanding is that China does not want to give paki's their frontline fighters even in their export configuration, so they are putting some stealthy design and some RAM coatings and making pakis happy.

[John]

PA testing its newly acquired LY 80 SAM from China , Video

https://twitter.com/Ali_answers/status/ ... 1465395202

There are reports that couple of these are in unkil labs being dissected I do wonder who might have provided them...

[Austin]

Well there are also rumours of Aliens body in Unkil lab and UFO that crashed some where

[Austin]

Ugly Duckling, Swan or a hunt bird in hand? The JF 17- an open source assessment - Prof. Prodyut Das

[Karan M]

From this point itself, I have a lot of skepticism about our "learned" Profs gyan bazi about the inscrutable Chinese who can do no wrong ("The JF 17 is no MiG 21 clone. It is altogether a more potent aircraft, reminiscent of the Northrop F 20 Tigershark. Though Yang Wei, the Chief Designer, did not have access to the F 20 he may have had opportunity to examine ex Vietnam Air Force F 5A aircraft or airframes and why not-only an arrogant fool will not “flatter” a good piece of engineering by imitating? ")...ah, the great Yang Wei, the great Chinese..and the manner in which MiG was involved in hand holding the PRC to develop this aircraft is given a nice go by. The rest of his article or whatever is more of the usual. Everything the Chinese do is right, Indians do is wrong. With mindsets like these, is it no wonder ADA kept these folks at as far a distance from the LCA as possible.

The best thing possible is for the LCA to get more and more orders, so folks like the good Prof get a feeling akin to a nicely ripe bhut jolokia in the unmentionables.

[gaurav.p]

Ugly Duckling, Swan or a hunt bird in hand? The JF 17- an open source assessment - Prof. Prodyut Das

One of the unknown in the comments among them is from yours truly.

Afaik this is verbatim copy pasting of his vayu article. Why are skeletons of the past being retrieved? Waste of time to teach his holiness.

[Austin]

. It is altogether a more potent aircraft, reminiscent of the Northrop F 20 Tigershark. Though Yang Wei, the Chief Designer, did not have access to the F 20 he may have had opportunity to examine ex Vietnam Air Force F 5A aircraft or airframes and why not-only an arrogant fool will not “flatter” a good piece of engineering by imitating? ")...ah, the great Yang Wei, the great Chinese..and the manner in which MiG was involved in hand holding the PRC to develop this aircraft is given a nice go by.

Most of the Chinese achievement be it JF-17 or J20/31 has to do with extensive Spying operation of both Military and Civilian nature in the US that happened during the period of Obama Administration , Being Leftist in Ideology and Deeds the Dems have a very soft corner for the Chinese and they literally gave away all the top tech to chinese either in commercial deals or operation which were just labeled as Spying but no action was taken against any Chinese individual other then lecturing them on acting Good and conveniently hiding such Spying on enmass scale at Military and Commercial level to we need to train the Chinese to act good , they are next great power and lets not rock the boat we have great commercial relation with them........You will be hard pressed to find any single Dems even mildly comdeming Chinese action much less taking any strict action , The Dems favored focusing all their efforts on Russians and making them No 1 enemy of US while belittling every Chinese advances

Only with Trump the screws are tightened and balls are held hard but this is a case of too little too late , The previous administration sold out every thing to the Chinese to keep the Economy in stable shape for 8 years. Had they put in similar pressure 15 years back as Trump is doing now the Chinese would be just flying their J-10 ......If you noitce the pace of advancement Chinese made in last 10 years prior to 2015 that is the major time when they caught up economically and militarily..........if DT looses next time expect the chinese to make a great comeback

[Karan M]

Austin, spying or not, there was an official Sabre-2 program which was the Genesis of the JF-17 design then MiG stepped in after Tianenmen, it was all copiously documented in the 1990s.

Only folks who are ga-ga about the Chinese like this professor will be in denial about the scale of design assistance. These guys will even claim J-10 and Lavi have no correlation.



See the post by Probad here. Its fairly accurate and anyone interested can dig up the relevant Flight Global and Brassey/Jane's excerpts from that time period.

https://forums.eagle.ru/showthread.php?t=207195

Prodyut Das should be given a nice little red passport, renamed Wrong Way Wang Wei like his hero's and appointed the chief PR spokesperson for CATIC. Match made in heaven.

[hnair]

If you noitce the pace of advancement Chinese made in last 10 years prior to 2015 that is the major time when they caught up economically and militarily..........if DT looses next time expect the chinese to make a great comeback

Nothing like that is going to happen. Dems will be silent about shafting the Chinese. eg: Prez Trump talks loudly about immigration crackdowns, while Prez Obama actually did massive crackdowns, quietly. Same for overseas action - a huge spike in furtive drone action replaced the PR issues around airstrikes.

When it comes to saving their "way of life" bacon, there is none better than DC establishment. Pakis truly believed Republicans will help them out, without realizing the transnational nature of DC

The second of his “coups de Main” was the introduction of the DSI after seven years of parallel preliminary work. DSI reduced weight and drag. Summing up: a very competent airframe has been designed on the lines of the Northrop F 20 but as with the F22/F31 resemblance the Chinese design somehow manages to look more elegant and dainty!

The very obvious possibility hat the original intake design sucked totally with the russian engines is lost on Prof. It is not like DSI was something not known since 80s. How come the chinese did not design theirs from ground up with that approach? His answer would be "because they developed in parallel" followed by the customary "unlike us"

There has been some gloating references on the Indian Net circles to the fact that Yang Wei has been recently severely criticized for the shortcomings of the J 20 ( AMCA team beware!).The Gloaters have missed the significant point. Weapons development Programmes are of National Importance and there is no room for fellowship if things are not delivered. “You fail; you go” is the grim rule for running successful programmes-outside of India.

This paragraph takes the cake His article, shorn off its lingo-dropping, is one long raspberry at LCA program and nothing else, because other than dissing LCA, he is not shining any new light on Bunder's design that is not already known. And then this paragraph. Till then, he was gloating about LCA's various failures and delays. But by this para, he gets really angry and is advising at Indians chuckling about chino-paki hyperbole to stop laughing. He is claiming "You fail, you go" kind of harsh achievement-reward cycles happens only outside India, yet Marut provides an example in India of the exact same thing that happened in India. Similar things happened with first AEW team, Project Devil, RTA etc. And would have happened if the LCA had even a single hiccough, as this forum has constantly prophesied, biting our collective nails.

Prof Das sounds like one of those "old men in park benches" types, who is wistful about olden days and how things were done right. Eg: his past views on Canberra being resurrected with new engines for dropping bombs over Beijing, mig-21s being resurrected with new engines for dealing with chinese J11s, Spirit of St Louis being resurrected with new engines for dropping mail at Dakshin Gangotri in Antartica etc type of posts smacks of a mind that does not seem to allow new data-points to come in the way of newer air-frame design choices.

A tube on top of wings and that is the final word for this MK Banderkumar of aerospace articles

(IIRC, F20s never gave F16s any hard time. I remember looking out for how a privately promoted fighter will fare in the 1980s - it failed)

[Vips]

The increasing Chinese footprint in Islamabad.

Emma Lin is wrapped in a purple scarf on a freezing December afternoon in Islamabad. She is sitting at a desk inside a Pakistani bank’s local branch – where she works as a relationship manager – that caters exclusively to Chinese customers.

Lin has been living and working in Islamabad for the past three years. She says she likes the city because it has clean air and a relaxed pace of life — both rarities in Beijing where she worked for nearly 20 years at various banks. And even before she arrived in Islamabad, she already had an idea about what life in Islamabad would be like. “I already had an uncle and a few friends who lived here, so it was not difficult for me to settle down,” she says in functional English.

WeChat was also helpful.

A mobile phone application that originally mimicked WhatsApp but now has over a billion active users mostly in China, WeChat, according to Lin, is “extremely central” to the Chinese community in Pakistan — especially for newcomers. “There are WeChat groups for different purposes in all major Pakistani cities,” she explains. As she scrolls through the Mandarin language application on her phone, a group called Pak-China Forever shows up on the screen. “You can privately message people, ask for their advice on where to shop, where to eat, on housing requirements, on visa issues — anything. You can even transfer money or automatically translate messages to Mandarin.”

There is also another application that assists Mandarin speakers in ordering food from Pakistani restaurants. Sports facilities in Islamabad are similarly developing their own applications to help with booking places such as basketball courts which are usually packed with Chinese players on holidays.

Around 10,000 Chinese live in Islamabad, according to figures provided by diplomatic officials. Another 35,000 or so live in other parts of Pakistan. Most of them are working on projects linked to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Others are young professionals employed by Chinese corporations in construction, energy and mining sectors. There are also small business owners and students — a majority of them coming from northern and western parts of China.

Since most of them have moved to Pakistan without their families, they prefer to stay for no longer than a year or two. Only in some cases do they stay for up to five or 10 years.

Due to the short nature of their stay, most of them do not feel the need to learn local languages. Their cultural understanding of Pakistan also remains limited. Their isolation is heightened by the availability of facilities that cater exclusively to a Chinese clientele. Since May 2017, for instance, a Chinese language newspaper, Huashang, has been coming out of Islamabad every week.

Huashang has five people on its editorial staff. All of them are Chinese. It has eight pages and covers the breadth of Pakistan-China relations, culture, sports, food and business. Its editor, Qiu Shang, who is also known as Tom, worked at a newspaper in China until he moved to Pakistan in 2017.

The newspaper attracted so many readers within a short span that a major Pakistani English daily, The News, entered into a partnership with it in October 2017. The two newspapers are now distributed together once a week across Pakistan.

Islamabad is yet to experience a substantial economic and financial impact from its Chinese population. For one, their presence has had no discernible bearing on house rents.

The real estate market in Islamabad faced a severe slump early in 2018 when around 1,600 houses fell vacant after a number of foreign missions shifted their offices and staff residences to the Diplomatic Enclave either due to security reasons, or under orders from the city authorities. “Rents fell by one-third,” says the executive of a major Islamabad-based real estate firm, wishing not to be identified by name. The Chinese presence did not compensate for that.

“Many local houseowners thought having an expat Chinese community would be a bit like having the Americans here,” says the executive. “They were in for a surprise when they discovered that the Chinese are tougher negotiators than most seasoned locals. They neither have issues with security the way westerners do, nor are they as extravagant,” he says. They rent houses at below-market rates and make payments only in rupees, he adds.

When employers rent houses for their Chinese staff, they populate them to full capacity. “Sometimes they fit 15 people into a single portion of a house and even make the CEOs share lodgings with six others.”

This explains why the Chinese living in Islamabad are mostly found in comparatively cheaper areas of the city — such as the G and I sectors. Only a few professionals, who have landed well-paying jobs with private companies, choose to reside in the upscale F sectors.

Islamabad has many manifestations of Pakistan-China friendship — ranging from huge convention halls like the Pak-China Friendship Centre to food and tea stalls with murals of Chinese President Xi Jinping or the founder of Communist China, Mao Zedong.

Then there are some other signs of large-scale Chinese presence in the city. The number of Chinese children in various private schools across Islamabad, for instance, is increasing, with many teachers reporting at least three or four Chinese students in their classes. A few schools even have more Chinese students than Pakistani ones.

A number of new restaurants have also popped up across the city to cater to a burgeoning Chinese population. Some of these are owned and run by Chinese while others have local owners but a Chinese staff. They offer hotpots, dumplings, pulled noodles, ramen, fish and tofu that taste nothing like the Chinese cuisine most Pakistanis are used to.

One of the most popular of these eateries, Hua Xia Qing, is located in a commercial plaza in the F-7 sector. It has a Chinese chef, a Chinese waiter and a Chinese receptionist to ensure customers get exactly what they want. While its menu is predominantly Chinese, it also has an odd Pakistani entry: dumba karahi, a Pashtun delicacy made of lamb meat. “We have added a barbecue section to our menu after persistent demands by our customers — most of whom are Chinese,” says Hua Xia Qing’s young manager, Haider Ali, who has learnt enough Mandarin to converse with his clients.

“Most of our clients are corporate professionals who are not looking to stay in Pakistan for more than a couple of years and, hence, are not particularly looking to assimilate,” Ali says. He pauses for a moment when asked if he has any Chinese friends. Then he slowly shakes his head. “The only time you see locals and Chinese mingling will be over business. Otherwise, they find it difficult to interact with one another because of the cultural differences.”

Several marriage bureaus in China have Pakistani women as potential brides on their lists.

The restaurant purchases its supplies from a supermarket called Firstop — located two floors below it in the same plaza. Its shelves are stocked with every Chinese product imaginable — from office equipment and skipping ropes to mushrooms and pickled chicken feet.

Under the shadow of the gleaming plaza is Kim Mun restaurant: evidence of an earlier Chinese assimilation in this part of the world. One of Islamabad’s most loved eateries, it has been around since 1980, having pioneered Chinese cuisine in the city.

Ancestors of the owners of Kim Mun came to the Subcontinent along with a dozen other families from Guangdong province in China to escape Communism. They first settled in Calcutta but shifted to Rawalpindi in 1947.

“I was born, brought up and educated in Islamabad,” says 38-year-old Steven Lee whose family owns the restaurant. “I speak fluent Urdu, English and even a bit of Punjabi but, at home, we still speak Hakka Chinese,” he says, referring to a dialect after which the Chinese cuisine available in Pakistan is also named.

Only a few Hakka-speaking Chinese migrants are left in Pakistan, according to Lee. Most of them, especially the younger ones, have migrated again – this time to Canada – because of security concerns. (Quality and Original Chinese are leaving Pakistan and islam pasand chineses are coming in )

Lee identifies himself as a Pakistani and does not feel any affinity towards the new wave of Chinese arrivals in Pakistan. “A large majority of the latest migrants are working class and we don’t really have any platform to interact with one another,” he says . “I wouldn’t say we don’t get along but we are not really affiliated. They speak Mandarin instead of Hakka and their food is so different that you will never find our beloved Chicken Manchurian on their menu.”

More recently, a new trend has emerged: marriages between Pakistani women and Chinese men. Several marriage bureaus in China have Pakistani women as potential brides on their lists. There are also matchmakers operating within Pakistan who pair Chinese men with Pakistani Christian women.

One ostensible reason for this trend is that Chinese men do not ask for dowry. They also offer the possibility of a more comfortable life, in either Pakistan or China, than most Christian women have here. On the flip side, these marriages provide an opportunity to Chinese grooms to settle down in Pakistan — away from the one-child policy back home.

Once children born to these mixed families grow up, the cultural interaction between Pakistanis and Chinese living here may increase. For the time being, it remains limited to a few language coaching centres. Pakistani parents, who want to give their children an edge in a China-dominated global economy, are enrolling them at these centres.

One such coaching centre, the China-Pakistan Educational Cultural Institute, is located in a dingy plaza in Islamabad’s Blue Area. It was set up in 2016 by Ma Heju, who comes from the Chinese province of Gansu and has been living in Islamabad for a decade. The institute offers courses that help students pass HSK – the official Chinese language proficiency test – up to Level 6. It has 100 students: 70 of them are Pakistanis learning Chinese and 14 of them are Chinese learning Urdu. Another 16 are learning English.

Most of its staffers are Muslims from the northern Chinese region of Ningxia. Li Qiang, 23, is one of them. He is enrolled at Islamabad’s International Islamic University as a student and works as a marketing manager for the institute in his spare time. His boss, Heju, also received his PhD in Comparative Religion from the same university.

On a recent December day, Qiang is sitting next to a window with a sunset view of the Margalla Hills. A laptop is propped open in front of him and an Arabic workbook is spread over his keyboard. He speaks limited English and Urdu but spends a lot of time translating newspaper articles from both into Arabic.

Most of the 800 or so Chinese students in Pakistan are enrolled at the International Islamic University. They chose to study in the university because a relative or a neighbour might have also done so. “I came to know about the International Islamic University because my brother was studying here,” says Li Tong, who is also from Ningxia. Chinese students also hear about the university through WeChat groups, he says.

Some of these students take up Islamic names much like how Chinese take up western names when they go to Europe or North Africa to study or work. They mostly study Islamic subjects — something they cannot do in their home country.

According to Tong, many Chinese students in Pakistan do not complete their degrees and, instead, start running small businesses. His elder brother, for instance, is running a small travel and transport company in Islamabad. (Not only are chinese not bringing in the dollars but are instead taking away local business from the pakistanis)

Most of them never want to return to China. “Because conditions are tough for Muslims back home, they would prefer to stay on in Pakistan,” says Tong. (Smart chinese might be upto something here under the guise of friendship and fee movement it may be hoping that more and more of its muslim population moves to pakistan!!!)

[Rakesh]

Vips, I moved your post above into this thread...

[Mollick.R]

Pilot martyred as PAF aircraft crashes near Mastung

A pilot of the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) was martyred in an air crash near Balochistan's Mastung area on Wednesday.

The accident occurred during a training mission being carried out in a multi-role aircraft, said a statement issued by the Directorate of Media Affairs of PAF.

"The PAF reports with regret that an F-7PG aircraft, while on a routine operational training mission, crashed near Mastung," it said.

F-7PGs were first inducted into the PAF in 2002 as a replacement for the F-6, which were then decommissioned. Later the force inducted the trainer FT-7PGs. The PAF had previously operated F-7Ps.

At least 13 F-7PGs/FT-7PGs have been lost during their 17 years in service. The PAF has more than 50 of the Chinese-made aircraft in its fleet.

https://www.dawn.com/news/1459302/pilot ... ar-mastung

[Mollick.R]

Just now found that Vips sir have already posted same article (The increasing Chinese footprint in Islamabad.) Which i too posted in Terroristan Dhaaga.

Mods may delete mine

[Khalsa]

Pilot martyred as PAF aircraft crashes near Mastung

A pilot of the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) was martyred in an air crash near Balochistan's Mastung area on Wednesday.

The accident occurred during a training mission being carried out in a multi-role aircraft, said a statement issued by the Directorate of Media Affairs of PAF.

"The PAF reports with regret that an F-7PG aircraft, while on a routine operational training mission, crashed near Mastung," it said.

F-7PGs were first inducted into the PAF in 2002 as a replacement for the F-6, which were then decommissioned. Later the force inducted the trainer FT-7PGs. The PAF had previously operated F-7Ps.

At least 13 F-7PGs/FT-7PGs have been lost during their 17 years in service. The PAF has more than 50 of the Chinese-made aircraft in its fleet.

https://www.dawn.com/news/1459302/pilot ... ar-mastung

Goddamn Mig_21s eh
How are those thunders doing? How many crashes?

[Austin]

Nothing like that is going to happen. Dems will be silent about shafting the Chinese. eg: Prez Trump talks loudly about immigration crackdowns, while Prez Obama actually did massive crackdowns, quietly. Same for overseas action - a huge spike in furtive drone action replaced the PR issues around airstrikes.

When it comes to saving their "way of life" bacon, there is none better than DC establishment. Pakis truly believed Republicans will help them out, without realizing the transnational nature of DC

Obama didnt do any thing , Zilch Nada is the right word.

All he did was lofty talks which any way he was good at and gave China impunity with almost every thing be it it Economic Espionage or Military one ...... if it ever came to light there was another bunch of Obama loft talks on China should behave and how More Power Means More Responsibility

It is only DT that took a 180 * turn and tighten the screw on them on all fronts. Have you ever come across any Demps criticizing China even today much less during Obama era for what ever they do ? That is because the extereme Leftist are ideological alligned with Chinese CPC ...... The CHief of Staff in WH goes to China and declares

It was a symbiotic relations where they allowed China to take Growth of World Economy when US came out of 2008 recession and China took over the world growth in return for US turning a blind eye on every thing.

[chetak]

paki panic has truly set in.

why is the paki army still harping on the CPEC ponzi scheme and why is it trying to hard sell it to India when all the slimy facts are only too well known??

what exactly is the paki army (scam/profit) angle with the CPEC and India??

So, when is the paki army transferring technology to the Indian Army to start manufacturing cornflakes, since bajwa is keen on talking business??


Qamar Bajwa's 'outreach' to Bipin Rawat likely to be stymied by bureaucracy, but keeping channel open a good idea

Qamar Bajwa's 'outreach' to Bipin Rawat likely to be stymied by bureaucracy, but keeping channel open a good idea



Tara Kartha

Jan 24, 2019

The Indian Army chief General Bipin Rawat’s statements often come thick and fast, but they’re usually newsworthy. Recently however, General Rawat was less focussed on hurling threats at Pakistan, and instead sought to clarify that a report in The New York Times which alleged he had been quietly approached by the Pakistani Army chief General Qamar Bajwa for talks, was completely incorrect. The media house then reported that General Bajwa reached out to his counterpart well before the general elections that brought Prime Minister Imran Khan to power. It then went to state rather curiously that “a key objective for Pakistan in reaching out to India is to open barriers to trade between the countries, which would give Pakistan more access to regional markets. Any eventual peace talks over Kashmir are likely to involve an increase in bilateral trade as a confidence-building measure”.

Now that’s curious. While the military in Pakistan is all-encompassing in its “interests” at a national level, it is hardly General Rawat’s brief to talk trade with his counterpart. It is undoubtedly true that Pakistan’s chief is now showing a healthy interest in trade and investment issues, since he is fast realising that the key to getting a better deal for his institution lies in reviving the lagging Pakistani economy.

His speech to the Pakistan Chambers of Commerce and Industry in October 2017 underlined his concern at Pakistan’s “sky-high debt”, warning that “the region will sink or sail together. I want to convey to our neighbours to the east and to the west that our destinies are inextricably linked”. At the end of his speech, Bajwa added that the springboard for this shared development was the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). In other words, the chief seemed to be not only opting for opening up trade with neighbours, he was also selling the CPEC as a vehicle to do so.

That’s a lot for any army chief to say. Certainly, General Rawat, for all his eloquence and all too frequent chats with the press, can hardly draw such grand designs without clearance from half a dozen ministries. So the question is: What was the objective of the Pakistani Army chief in reaching out to his counterpart, when he would know full well that the Indian Army is very properly (and rigorously) bounded about by the civilian bureaucracy and the political leadership as befits a democracy? Military to military” talks — or ‘mil to mil” as they are called — are hardly ever precursors to a formal political dialogue.

It’s usually the politicos who sit together first, and then later — much later — the militaries sit down and talk to each other, usually on subjects linked to their domains. None of this is to say that militaries don’t talk to each other at all. But these issues are usually single subject meetings: like flag meetings to discuss border violations. For instance, a flag meeting at the Brigade-level was held in Poonch just two months ago, to discuss “how to strengthen the ceasefire”. That’s politesse. The reality is that the one probably inflicted one too many losses on the other, and there was a decision to fend off any possible escalation. That’s fairly standard stuff, and hardly the kind of reaching out that the Pakistani chief has in mind.

While considering the Pakistani Army chief's motives, the underlying fact remains that talking to the centre of power in Pakistan is very much in India’s interest. That just about everyone else sees it as in their respective interest is apparent in the fact that every foreign diplomat worth his salt will make his bow to the civilian leadership, and then hasten to army headquarters to get the real lowdown on what’s possible and what’s not with regard to a bilateral relationship on in wheeling and dealing on Afghanistan.

So while agreeing the ‘mil to mil’ talks are desirable, the problem remains how to get it off the ground in a situation where the politicians can't (or won't) talk to each other. In such a scenario, it is possible for the two chiefs to meet quietly at another location in much the same way as the two National Security Advisors of India and Pakistan have met in Bangkok and other such convenient cities. Alternatively, they could meet at a location where both army chiefs are present in an official capacity. There is no shortage of locations. The point is what subject they are to discuss.

NSAs on both sides can and do talk freely. But with all due respect, the Indian Army chief is hardly capable of having dialogue with authority on any other subject other than war-making or its avoidance. Other than that, the only other subject that could possibly be discussed is Kashmir, which the army knows and knows well. And in the final analysis, that is all there is to discuss: not in its substance, but quite literally in its terms of reference.

In other words, is Pakistan willing to go ahead with resolution of Sir Creek for instance, and open up trade while putting aside the issue of Kashmir? It’s a black and white situation, with the Indian Army chief only required to assess his opposite number’s position on this vital question. Other add-ons — like Indian involvement in CPEC — has to await entirely separate dialogues, probably with the Chinese rather than Islamabad.

And finally, while in Pakistan the army decides what it is going to talk about, in India it is the bureaucracy that takes the final call. So the actual question is whether any bureaucrat worth his sacrosanct file will allow this kind of leeway to a rather more than loquacious army chief. That answer is probably a resounding 'no'. That’s regrettable. Talking to the top is always a good idea, even if you have to crane your neck while doing it.

[Rakesh]

https://twitter.com/SJha1618/status/1088407566151905280 ---> Saying that Pakistan will have 25 squadrons of combat jets in 2021 means little. A lot of this is made up of very old Mirage variants, whose serviceability is dubious at best.

[rkhanna]

The increasing Chinese footprint in Islamabad.
tough for Muslims back home, they would prefer to stay on in Pakistan,” says Tong. (Smart chinese might be upto something here under the guise of friendship and fee movement it may be hoping that more and more of its muslim population moves to pakistan!!!)

Supposedly its the same in Sri Lanka as well. The only difference is the the local Lankans hate them and are often found in pitch battles with Chinese labourers alongside Indian labour.

[nam]

There has been spate of articles around Cold Start and the perfect solution in form of rocket named Nasr, this is what I feel.

Cold Start is a very useful tool to get the Pak do, what we really want them to do. A arms race. The objective of the CS is to kick off a fight, no matter whatever be the object. It is to kick off a fight and use our advantage of mass to see where it goes..

PA understands this. The only way then is to have a comparable mass defending against our IBG & Strike Corps. This means a Arms Race.

Since they cannot afford one, they took the cheapest way out. Shouting on the top of the roof about how "Nasr with TNW has stopped CS". This message has two audience.

Pak adbuls and more importantly, our political leaders. PA is trying to convince GoI that CS cannot succeed and nuke escalation. So don't give permission to carry it out.

[Rakesh]

They will not launch the missile until the CS force is well within their territory. The foolishness of Nasr with TNW is that Pakistan will be the only nation to drop a TNW on her own territory. The PA have really thought this through!

India's retaliation will be swift and massive. Pakistan existence - at least, as we know it - would be in serious doubt. That would put Chinese investment at great risk as well. Has the PA got permission from their Chinese master for such a foolish adventure?

[nam]

They will not launch the missile until the CS force is well within their territory. The foolishness of Nasr with TNW is that Pakistan will be the only nation to drop a TNW on her own territory. The PA have really thought this through!

India's retaliation will be swift and massive. Pakistan existence - at least, as we know it - would be in serious doubt. That would put Chinese investment at great risk as well. Has the PA got permission from their Chinese master for such a foolish adventure?

I am of the view dropping nuke on their own territory is quite smart. It kills two birds. Attack on our forces and the biggest one: Victimhood.
If they drop the nuke on our territory, we get to be the victim. And Pak faces the consequences.

I have been trying to think about this nuke dropping business.

Suppose Pak drops nuke on our forces. India has two choices.

1. Flatten entire Pak and get some nukes in return.

2. Not respond with a nuke. This is a interesting scenario. Not responding would give us a carte blanche of doing a "WW2 style Germany" on Pak.
India could announce that it does not want "Nuclear holocaust", however it will be expect the world to "de-nuke & disarm Pak" or India will itself hunt down every armed Adbul in Pak, no matter the cost. Please don't blame us, as we are the victim.

Every "guardians" of this world like US, French, Brit will be under tremendous pressure to not to let Pak get away with using nuke. From our point of view, using Option 1 would mean loss of lives and resources. However it is the easiest option and both us and Pak be the victim.

Option 2 lets us be the victim, get all the aid for being the victim, disarm Pak and make it our "Gaza strip". We mount regular Israel style air raids to prevent "another holocaust". All of these with potentially less loss of resources compared to 1.

[nam]

Oh, by the way, based on the scenarios with Pak nukes, Cold Start for all practical purpose is a full fledged invasion. It is just "Starting Cold".

I don't see how we will only ingress few kms and not consider knocking off Pak nukes..

[ArjunPandit]

The PA have really thought this through!

Well did they think through kargil or any other misadventure they were doing? It is the easiest for them to do. Afterall, India is not going going to give them more water under IWT and apart from china no one is investing there. Get rid of local abduls and get more money in future from Sauds, Americans and Japanese.They will nuke themselves and for next 5000 years claim themselves to be the victim of Indian nuclear attack. I doubt they would just start at TNW and stop there, like cockroaches, their survival instincts are very strong. They will probably go for a full spectrum along with that. IMHO, it will start with a random abdul with command of NASR will unleash it and then the pindi gas inflated guys will realize their time might be up so use it before they lose it all. We need to be prepared to take massive hits. But just make ensure that not even an ameoba grows there for next 100 years

[souravB]

Saar, the real threat is not of Nasr. That we can counter when and IF they decide to use it. Abhijit Iyer-Mitra once claimed in all simulations with the Pakis, the SR Tac TNW was never used no matter the threshold.
The real threat comes from the snakes which have been bred for this very moment. They will be given a Dirty bomb and Kuran to blow up one major city each. With ISI planning and Saudi bank rolling, they might just be successful. The bombs and lambs will go to the highest bidder.

[Rakesh]

I am of the view dropping nuke on their own territory is quite smart. It kills two birds. Attack on our forces and the biggest one: Victimhood.
If they drop the nuke on our territory, we get to be the victim. And Pak faces the consequences.

They will face serious consequences either way. As you already know, India has a no-first use policy. So if we extrapolate that policy into the scenarios below, this will occur;

1) Scenario 1: Pakistan drops a nuclear weapon on a CS force in Indian territory. We will retaliate and the response will be devastating for Pakistan. They will not be alive to play the role of Victimhood.

2) Scenario 2: Pakistan drops a nuclear weapon on a CS force in Pakistani territory. We will retaliate and the response will be devastating for Pakistan. They will not be alive to play the role of Victimhood.

The only difference in both the above scenarios is the location. What is the point of playing the victim when you are dead? You are not alive to see the result anyway - negative or positive.

Make no mistake, a nuclear attack on an Integrated Battle Group(s) is akin to attacking the Indian State itself. The Central Govt (and the opposition) practises democracy in India and the armed forces preserve that democracy in India. Neither side needs to perform the role of the other. An attack on either institution - by a foreign power *USING* nuclear weapons - is an attack on the very existence of India. The Indian response will be immediate and be nothing short of devastating. And as terrifying such a scenario is, that message has been conveyed to Pakistan. Nasr is for their public to believe that they can stop an Indian CS force in its tracks. Good for them.

I have been trying to think about this nuke dropping business.

Suppose Pak drops nuke on our forces. India has two choices.

1. Flatten entire Pak and get some nukes in return.

2. Not respond with a nuke. This is a interesting scenario. Not responding would give us a carte blanche of doing a "WW2 style Germany" on Pak. India could announce that it does not want "Nuclear holocaust", however it will be expect the world to "de-nuke & disarm Pak" or India will itself hunt down every armed Adbul in Pak, no matter the cost. Please don't blame us, as we are the victim.

Every "guardians" of this world like US, French, Brit will be under tremendous pressure to not to let Pak get away with using nuke. From our point of view, using Option 1 would mean loss of lives and resources. However it is the easiest option and both us and Pak be the victim.

Option 2 lets us be the victim, get all the aid for being the victim, disarm Pak and make it our "Gaza strip". We mount regular Israel style air raids to prevent "another holocaust". All of these with potentially less loss of resources compared to 1.

In Point 1, we do not need their nukes really. Terrorist organizations may want them, but our nukes are sufficient enough.

In Point 2, the odds of that happening are highly unlikely. The only way I can see that happening is if we successfully manage to stop a Pakistani missile, armed with a nuclear warhead. And I doubt we would still not retaliate back with a nuclear weapon. And what if they launch more than one missile? How many can we successfully stop?

In the heat and fog of war, the last people Pakistan will be listening to is the US, France or England. All directions will be coming from their Chinese masters. I am very serious about that. They will not launch one single nuclear-armed missile without the Chinese nod. There is enough Chinese investment in Pakistan for them to listen. They have no choice. It is here, where a two front war becomes reality. To ease the pressure on the Pakistan front, the Chinese will open up a front on the eastern border.

[Rakesh]

The PA have really thought this through!

Well did they think through kargil or any other misadventure they were doing? It is the easiest for them to do. Afterall, India is not going going to give them more water under IWT and apart from china no one is investing there. Get rid of local abduls and get more money in future from Sauds, Americans and Japanese.They will nuke themselves and for next 5000 years claim themselves to be the victim of Indian nuclear attack. I doubt they would just start at TNW and stop there, like cockroaches, their survival instincts are very strong. They will probably go for a full spectrum along with that. IMHO, it will start with a random abdul with command of NASR will unleash it and then the pindi gas inflated guys will realize their time might be up so use it before they lose it all. We need to be prepared to take massive hits. But just make ensure that not even an ameoba grows there for next 100 years

Dropping a nuclear weapon is no joke. And Pakistani nuclear weapons are at the least more powerful than the ones dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. And Indian Nuclear weapons are no different. And like I told nam, they will not be alive to play the victim. Forget 5,000 years! They will not be alive for much long - if they already have not been vaporized from the initial blast - to play victim. The Indian response at their population centres will be quite devastating for them, to formulate any response that anyone will listen.

[Yagnasri]

Forget about playing victim-hood. No one in real world gives a s**t for Hindu victims. Did they gave anything during Bangladesh Genocide? No. World do not respect or care victims. It only respect winners irrespect of millions of civilians killed.

Only response to paki WMD use on Indian forces or India shall be IELR. (Immediate and Extinction Level Response)

[chola]

Well did they think through kargil or any other misadventure they were doing? It is the easiest for them to do. Afterall, India is not going going to give them more water under IWT and apart from china no one is investing there. Get rid of local abduls and get more money in future from Sauds, Americans and Japanese.They will nuke themselves and for next 5000 years claim themselves to be the victim of Indian nuclear attack. I doubt they would just start at TNW and stop there, like cockroaches, their survival instincts are very strong. They will probably go for a full spectrum along with that. IMHO, it will start with a random abdul with command of NASR will unleash it and then the pindi gas inflated guys will realize their time might be up so use it before they lose it all. We need to be prepared to take massive hits. But just make ensure that not even an ameoba grows there for next 100 years

Dropping a nuclear weapon is no joke. And Pakistani nuclear weapons are at the least more powerful than the ones dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. And Indian Nuclear weapons are no different. And like I told nam, they will not be alive to play the victim. Forget 5,000 years! They will not be alive for much long - if they already have not been vaporized from the initial blast - to play victim. The Indian response at their population centres will be quite devastating for them, to formulate any response that anyone will listen.

No, if India makes it clear that tact nukes on Indian troops in Pakistan means the end of Pakiland then the Pakis will go full nuclear on CS.

If CS == Full nuclear war then CS cannot be truly implemented which is what the Pakis want by talking about tact nukes.

Nuclear states cannot go to war, even conventionally, which is why NoKo has not been by Unkil regime-changed like Iraq.

[Rakesh]

Chola, that is semantics. There is no scenario in which Pakistan will come out on top - even in the afterlife - in the event of a nuclear exchange with India.

[Rakesh]

From a pro-Pakistani twitter account. Read the caption of the tweet and then look at the picture

Pakistan is such a basket case! Jeez!

https://twitter.com/BhatIru1/status/1090605492320251905 ---> Doctors and Scholars killed in 2018 by Indian Army.

[chola]

Chola, that is semantics. There is no scenario in which Pakistan will come out on top - even in the afterlife - in the event of a nuclear exchange with India.

Yes, TSP cannot come out on top. But that’s not the point. The threat is that it will go nuclear at any invasion of sacred Paki territory. This means it will blunt any kind of decisive conventional action because it will be worth potentially sacrificing millions to annihilate Pakistan.

Unless we are as psycho as Mao’s PRC and willing to accept an exchange of several hundred nukes just because we’ll still have some people standing when its over all then Cold Start can never really be implemented.

The only reason Saddam and Qadafi are dead through regime change while Fatty Kim still holds sway in Noko is because the first two only pursued nooks Kim actually has them. The same protection is accorded the Pig State whether we like it or not. Once there are nooks, there cannot be decisive conventional war IMO.

[Sid]

Chola, that is semantics. There is no scenario in which Pakistan will come out on top - even in the afterlife - in the event of a nuclear exchange with India.

Yes, TSP cannot come out on top. But that’s not the point. The threat is that it will go nuclear at any invasion of sacred Paki territory. This means it will blunt any kind of decisive conventional action because it will be worth potentially sacrificing millions to annihilate Pakistan.

Unless we are as psycho as Mao’s PRC and willing to accept an exchange of several hundred nukes just because we’ll still have some people standing when its over all then Cold Start can never really be implemented.

The only reason Saddam and Qadafi are dead through regime change while Fatty Kim still holds sway in Noko is because the first two only pursued nooks Kim actually has them. The same protection is accorded the Pig State whether we like it or not. Once there are nooks, there cannot be decisive conventional war IMO.

Problems with TNW is that they are always considered a strategic threat, not a tactical threat (and will result in MAD if ever used). Their use in saturated fire will have the same effect as any big nuke attack. Hence the deterrence factor.

Only way out from such conundrum is to develop MOAB/FOAB which can be delivered by SRBMs. They will have the same effect with no pressure to use strategic nukes. But it will launch another level of arms race.

[Rakesh]

https://twitter.com/SJha1618/status/1093124979024060416 ---> I would like to see the Pakistan Air force do some real high tempo flying with their second hand Mirages which they claim have been 'extensively refurbished' and are 'good as new'. If Pakistan had really 'buffered up' conventionally they wouldn't be making nuke threats.

https://twitter.com/SJha1618/status/1093126743420891136 ---> While this article is effusive about Pakistan's second-hand Mirage overhaul program, it could not escape mentioning: "They have outlived their lives... after their overhauls (they) have become highly unreliable, we even met with *lots of accidents*."

Thrifty at 50: Pakistan keeps aging Mirages flying
http://www.arabnews.com/node/1293341/world

29 April 2018

[arun]

X Posted from the Pakistani Economic Stress Watch thread.

Express Tribune reports that the Mohammadden Terrorism Fomenting Islamic Republic of Pakistan has made Zulfikar Ali Bhutto’s boast that the Islamic would “Eat Grass” come true.

Lots of nuggets on the pretty pickle the Islamic Republic has got itself into, the key one for me being the size of the defence budget “inclusive of pensions, strategic nature expenses and special military packages” being PKR 1.676 Trillion. Not clear though if this PKR 1.676 Trillion includes outlay for debt servicing on debt taken on for military acquisitions / purposes.

Govt to pay Rs3.6 trillion on defence, debt servicing

By Shahbaz Rana Published: February 7, 2019

ISLAMABAD: The federal government would pay a whopping Rs3.6 trillion on account of defence and debt servicing that is equal to 68.2% of the current fiscal year’s revised budget, the centre on Wednesday sensitised the provinces about the grave fiscal situation that has thrown the country into a debt trap.

After excluding debt servicing and defence related obligations, the net federal revenues for fiscal year 2018-19 are negative Rs632 billion, Federal Secretary Finance Arif Ahmad Khan briefed the four provinces during the first meeting of the ninth National Finance Commission (NFC).

The NFC meeting included a detailed presentation by the federal finance secretary, focusing on the country’s overall current fiscal position.

The federal government’s total gross revenues are estimated at Rs5.5 trillion. Out of this sum, the provinces will get Rs2.581 trillion as their share in the federal divisible pool. This leaves the net federal revenues at Rs3 trillion but the cumulative spending on just two heads – debt and defence – is Rs3.62 trillion.

Since the debt and defence spending are equal to 121% of the net federal revenues, the finance ministry borrows to pay salaries, pensions, run hospitals, schools and build roads. Every penny that the centre spends on development is borrowed from the banks and foreign lenders.

Pakistan’s debt and liabilities surge to Rs31 trillion

Compared with negative Rs632-billion revenue of the federal government, the net revenue, after excluding interest payments of the provinces, is positive Rs583 billion for this fiscal year. Under the existing constitutional arrangement, defence is the responsibility of the centre.

Against the stated defence budget of Rs1.1 trillion, the finance ministry told the NFC that by the end of fiscal year 2019, Rs1.676 trillion would be spent on defence that is equal to 31.5% of the federal budget. This is the second biggest charge on the budget after debt servicing.

The Rs1.676-trillion defence expenditures are inclusive of pensions, strategic nature expenses and special military packages, according to the finance ministry’s presentation.

Similarly, against Rs1.842-trillion budgeted cost of debt servicing, the finance ministry told the provinces that the debt servicing would consume minimum Rs1.95 trillion, or 36.6%, of the total budget. The central bank’s decision to increase interest rates also put additional burden of roughly Rs500 billion on the finance ministry due to high cost of borrowing.

Pakistan to pay China $40b on $26.5b CPEC investments in 20 years

The cumulative spending on these debt and defence has been projected at Rs3.621 trillion, or 68.2%, of the budget by the finance ministry.

Such an alarming situation of the federal fiscal operations showed that the centre was not in a position to surrender any amount out of its 42.5% share in the federal divisible pool. But the provinces want to increase their pie.

The finance ministry has projected the size of the budget at Rs5.38 trillion for this fiscal year and showed the federal fiscal deficit at Rs2.4 trillion or 6.3% of GDP.

“Until resources are increased, neither the provinces nor the centre can achieve its targets,” said Finance Minister Asad Umar after the NFC meeting.

Punjab’s technical member NFC Dr Salman Shah said the overall debt has increased to Rs30 trillion and this carried huge implications for the federal government as someone has to finance it.

The finance ministry took a position in the NFC that the fiscal sustainability was at the heart of the economic and social management. It was of the view that imprudent fiscal management led to worsening external account, unsustainable economic growth and increase in prices and accumulation of debt.

In its presentation, the Ministry of Finance projected the FBR’s revenues at Rs4.417 trillion while the other revenues were shown at Rs1.15 trillion. The gross revenue receipts that were equal to 12.1% of GDP in 2012 have now increased to Rs14.8% of GDP.

But the stick and inelasticity in expenditures, like defence and debt servicing, kept the budget deficit towards the higher end. The total federal expenditures that were Rs3 trillion or equal to 15.2% of GDP in 2012 have now increased to Rs5.4 trillion. The high debt and defence servicing adversely impacted the federal development spending that was Rs317 billion, or 1.6%, of GDP in 2012 will now go down to 1.5% of GDP at the end of this fiscal year. In absolute terms, the finance ministry has projected the federal development spending at Rs575 billion in this fiscal year.

Total gross revenues of the four provinces have been projected at only Rs654 billion in this fiscal year. The four provinces have been projected to pay Rs71 billion in interest payments, leaving their net revenues, excluding interest payments at Rs583 billion.

But Sindh Chief Minister Murad Ali Shah on Wednesday blamed the FBR for this poor fiscal performance. He was of the view that the provinces showed 26% growth in collection of sales tax on services during the past five years, which was double the growth rate in collection of sales tax on goods by the FBR.

Published in The Express Tribune, February 7th, 2019.

From here:

Govt to pay Rs3.6 trillion on defence, debt servicing

[Thakur_B]

^ that is a massive amount spent on defence as a percentage of budget. Recently saw a snippet somewhere that Indian Defence budgeted expenditure is more than entire pakistan govt budgeted expenditure.

[sudhan]

^ that is a massive amount spent on defence as a percentage of budget. Recently saw a snippet somewhere that Indian Defence budgeted expenditure is more than entire pakistan govt budgeted expenditure.

The 2018-19 Paki budget had an outlay of ~ $43 billion

The 2018 Union budget of India, Defence was allocated ~$56 billion