Levant crisis - III

The Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to India's security environment, her strategic outlook on global affairs and as well as the effect of international relations in the Indian Subcontinent. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
Singha
BRF Oldie
Posts: 66430
Joined: 13 Aug 2004 19:42
Location: the grasshopper lies heavy

Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 01 Jan 2019 13:05

per twitter russia has deployed 1 S300 battery in deir azzor region, with some 200 syrians and 70 of its own people (trainers maybe).
this is to monitor the channel of flying over jordan and heading up the euphrates which israelis did earlier.

Y. Kanan
BRFite
Posts: 726
Joined: 27 Mar 2003 12:31
Location: USA

Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Y. Kanan » 01 Jan 2019 13:16

Austin - yes, but the IAF appears to be stepping up the frequency of these air-launched cruise missile strikes from Lebanese airspace. Apparently the Isrealis are hiding behind civilian airliners trying to trick the Syrians into shooting one down. Typical ratty behavior that we've come to expect from the Isrealis these days.

I’m not sure what, if anything, the Syrians or Russians can do about this. Apparently they have no chance of actually downing an Isreali fighter over their own airspace, despite the S300’s claimed ability to do that, and it sure looks like Syrian/Russian air defense is holding back, either because they know the S300’s won’t work so better not to fire them, or because they don’t feel confident in their ability to avoid hitting an airliner. I’m sure they’re very worried about another MH17 type of incident. That would reverse the American withdrawal and snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Seems to me the Syrians have no choice but to just sit there and keep taking the hits. That “strategy” is actually not so bad. True the S300’s haven’t stopped the strikes, but that’s ok, because standoff missiles are a lot less effective than bombs. At least the IAF no longer has free reign to bomb anywhere at will.

Singha
BRF Oldie
Posts: 66430
Joined: 13 Aug 2004 19:42
Location: the grasshopper lies heavy

Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 01 Jan 2019 13:37

in the last episode a airliner landing at beirut was used as cover, so SAM did not fire at launch a/c but could attempt later when the missile were in flight. another plane landing at damascus was sent off north.

the iranians have moved their bases close to russian bases wherever they can like in T4.

it is still unclear what is the eventual fate of eastern syria and if the us withdrawal is for real.

Singha
BRF Oldie
Posts: 66430
Joined: 13 Aug 2004 19:42
Location: the grasshopper lies heavy

Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 01 Jan 2019 13:39

Brasco_Aad

@Brasco_Aad
31 Dec 2018
More
-Breaking-

Moroccan troops r ready to deployed in Northern Syria alongside Egyptian & UAE troops, with Syrian & Russian blessing.

Mohammed bin Zayed has asked King Mohammed VI of Morocco to deploy Moroccan troops in this part of Syria to counter Turkish Neo-Ottoman expansionism

habal
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6600
Joined: 24 Dec 2009 18:46

Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby habal » 01 Jan 2019 16:16

Y. Kanan wrote:That would reverse the American withdrawal and snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.


Can you build a scenario where defeat can be snatched from jaws of victory. An airliner gets shot down by mistake, what is USA or Israel going to do or what are they going to try that they haven't already.

Y. Kanan
BRFite
Posts: 726
Joined: 27 Mar 2003 12:31
Location: USA

Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Y. Kanan » 03 Jan 2019 08:02

It seems pretty likely, considering all the wailing currently going on within the US media and power elite, that after another chemical attack or better yet, a downed airliner, it would become politically impossible for Trump to pull out. It’s nearly impossible for Trump to defy the ruling establishment even now, without videos of gasping children, fake or otherwise.

Philip
BRF Oldie
Posts: 19842
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: India

Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Philip » 03 Jan 2019 08:46

There are several ways to " skin a cat".The last thing that Putin wants is a clash with Israel which will widen the ME conflict to an extremely dangerous global crisis.Bibi N is in deep trouble back home over the allegations of corruption.He may want such a scenario to divert attenion from his troubles but may be outflanked by Russia and its allies both diplomaticcly and militarily on the ground.

Gyan
BRFite
Posts: 1163
Joined: 26 Aug 2016 19:14

Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Gyan » 04 Jan 2019 00:26

Singha wrote:Brasco_Aad

@Brasco_Aad
31 Dec 2018
More
-Breaking-

Moroccan troops r ready to deployed in Northern Syria alongside Egyptian & UAE troops, with Syrian & Russian blessing.

Mohammed bin Zayed has asked King Mohammed VI of Morocco to deploy Moroccan troops in this part of Syria to counter Turkish Neo-Ottoman expansionism


So Saudis & UAE more afraid of Sunni Bros rather than Shia enemies

Y. Kanan
BRFite
Posts: 726
Joined: 27 Mar 2003 12:31
Location: USA

Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Y. Kanan » 04 Jan 2019 01:53

It's galling, but once again the Russians, Syrians and Iranians will win by using their greatest superpower: the ability to absorb air strikes and casualties without over-reacting. Defeating the enemy by turning the other cheek. The Bible was right: the meek shall indeed inherit the earth.

Y. Kanan
BRFite
Posts: 726
Joined: 27 Mar 2003 12:31
Location: USA

Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Y. Kanan » 07 Jan 2019 01:12

Another fake gas attack in the works. Much bigger strikes planned for this one:
US warns Syria against use of chemical weapons
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/01/ ... 07400.html

I'm not worried, though. I'm sure the Russians can be counted on not to over-react.

Singha
BRF Oldie
Posts: 66430
Joined: 13 Aug 2004 19:42
Location: the grasshopper lies heavy

Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 07 Jan 2019 17:02

:rotfl: the patented indian algorithm. perhaps our biggest export to the world.

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 11298
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby UlanBatori » 09 Jan 2019 23:59

US teenaged ISIS s**** captured alive by Kurds

Already lived far too long, IMO.

deejay
Forum Moderator
Posts: 3858
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby deejay » 10 Jan 2019 12:21

UlanBatori wrote:US teenaged ISIS s**** captured alive by Kurds

Already lived far too long, IMO.


ISIS is not defeated. Trump must rejine.

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 11298
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby UlanBatori » 10 Jan 2019 17:33

^ That was ISIS. This is USIS. Oh wait! they're closed. Never mind.

Austin
BRF Oldie
Posts: 23312
Joined: 23 Jul 2000 11:31

Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Austin » 12 Jan 2019 16:54

WATCH Syrian Army Repel Israeli Attack on Damascus

https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/2019 ... le-strike/

Austin
BRF Oldie
Posts: 23312
Joined: 23 Jul 2000 11:31

Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Austin » 12 Jan 2019 19:18


Austin
BRF Oldie
Posts: 23312
Joined: 23 Jul 2000 11:31

Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Austin » 14 Jan 2019 20:27

Y. Kanan wrote:Austin - yes, but the IAF appears to be stepping up the frequency of these air-launched cruise missile strikes from Lebanese airspace. Apparently the Isrealis are hiding behind civilian airliners trying to trick the Syrians into shooting one down. Typical ratty behavior that we've come to expect from the Isrealis these days.

I’m not sure what, if anything, the Syrians or Russians can do about this. Apparently they have no chance of actually downing an Isreali fighter over their own airspace, despite the S300’s claimed ability to do that, and it sure looks like Syrian/Russian air defense is holding back, either because they know the S300’s won’t work so better not to fire them, or because they don’t feel confident in their ability to avoid hitting an airliner. I’m sure they’re very worried about another MH17 type of incident. That would reverse the American withdrawal and snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Seems to me the Syrians have no choice but to just sit there and keep taking the hits. That “strategy” is actually not so bad. True the S300’s haven’t stopped the strikes, but that’s ok, because standoff missiles are a lot less effective than bombs. At least the IAF no longer has free reign to bomb anywhere at will.


Modern SAM are smart enough not to attack any other aircraft then what is getting tracked and guided too but considering Israel fighter will make sure they are beyond the range of most SAM including S-300 and wil use Earth Horizon to fly hi lo and then fire missile and quickly egress.

They can always use the cover of Civilian Aircraft flying over Lebenon and a SAM Burst near Israel Fighter jet the warhead splinters might impact any civilian aircarft which Israel Fighter will most certainly use to cover like they used the Russian ELINT aircraft which Syrian SAM shot.

RuAF have shut of the medetarian via Jammers and SAM but doing this over Lebanon civilian airspace will be difficult short of bringing all the Civilian Aircraft to Land or complicating its flying perhaps even leading to Crash as Jammers would affect civilian and military frequency and navigation.

Right now the best strategy is to play a defensive game and intercept or jam most missile that flies close to target. There is as much you can do in any defensive war which Syrians are doing.

Israel is pissed off that its puppet IS got defeated and is now trying to play spoil sports in this game hope to provoke something big.

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 11298
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby UlanBatori » 14 Jan 2019 22:07

BB trying to stay out of jail. Israelis deprived of Arabs to beat up, will beat each other up happily.

Singha
BRF Oldie
Posts: 66430
Joined: 13 Aug 2004 19:42
Location: the grasshopper lies heavy

Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 17 Jan 2019 14:26

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... hotel.html

photo feature - al shabab terrorists unleash mayhem in a elite mall in nairobi kenya. many killed but security forces kill them all in response.

Austin
BRF Oldie
Posts: 23312
Joined: 23 Jul 2000 11:31

Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Austin » 20 Jan 2019 19:37

One more attack today by Israel but Russian MOD and SAA confirms all 5 missile fired by Israel AF at targets of Damscus Airport were intercepted.

Russian Military Confirms Syria Repulsed Israeli Missile Attack


https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/2019 ... ck-israel/

"Our air defence systems have repelled Israel's air strike in a southern region. All missiles have been intercepted, none of them hit their targets," a Syrian military source told Sputnik on Sunday.

Later in the day, the Russian military confirmed that the Israeli Air Force had carried out an attack against Syria, saying the strikes consisted of guided missiles launched from the Mediterranean Sea by four IAF F-16 fighters at 1:32 pm Moscow time.


Speaking to journalists at the National Defence Management Centre in Moscow, a Russian military spokesman confirmed that Syrian air defences had repulsed the Israeli attack, which was aimed at the Damascus International Airport, southwest of the Syrian capital.


According to the Russian military, Syrian-operated Pantsir and Buk air defence systems destroyed seven Israeli missiles. "The airport's infrastructure was not damaged. There are no victims, and no damage," a spokesman said.


Earlier, Syrian television channel Ikhbariya reported that air defence batteries had shot down five missiles in the area of the Damascus International Airport.


Austin
BRF Oldie
Posts: 23312
Joined: 23 Jul 2000 11:31

Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Austin » 21 Jan 2019 11:39

this time more massive attack on damascus as a retliation to strike on Golan by SAA, SAA says most missile intercepted but not all , so expecting damage around damascus , need info from Russian MOD which will come later in the day.

Attacks carried from Lebanon airspace and SRBM probably LORA was used

Israel launches new barrage against 'Iranian' targets in Syria, warns against retaliation

Austin
BRF Oldie
Posts: 23312
Joined: 23 Jul 2000 11:31

Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Austin » 21 Jan 2019 13:26

Rush hour blast hits Damascus area, appears to be ‘terrorist act’ – state media
Published time: 20 Jan, 2019 09:09
Get short URL
19
A large explosion in what appears to be a “terrorist act” rocked morning rush hour traffic in the southern Damascus suburb of Qazaz on Sunday, Syria’s SANA news agency has said. There is no exact information on the potential casualties. Authorities said the attack targeted a military checkpoint in the area and that a second attack was prevented by security forces shortly afterwards. All roads leading to and from the scene have been closed. Such attacks have become a rare sight in the Syrian capital after government forces reclaimed the last rebel-held areas of the city in 2018.

19

Austin
BRF Oldie
Posts: 23312
Joined: 23 Jul 2000 11:31

Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Austin » 21 Jan 2019 14:24

Israeli airstrikes killed 4 Syrian servicemen, left 6 wounded – Russian MoD

Four Syrian soldiers and wounded six others, and "partially damaged the infrastructure of the Damascus international airport," the Russian Defense Ministry has said

Israeli strikes against Syria have killed four Syrian soldiers and left 6 outhers injured, the Russian Defense Ministery has said. The ministry claims that Syrian forces have intercepted 30 Israeli missiles over the past 48 hours.

Austin
BRF Oldie
Posts: 23312
Joined: 23 Jul 2000 11:31

Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Austin » 21 Jan 2019 16:47

Some videos from SAA SAM firing and explosion

https://twitter.com/Partisangirl/status ... 5651335169

Austin
BRF Oldie
Posts: 23312
Joined: 23 Jul 2000 11:31

Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Austin » 21 Jan 2019 17:13

The following video provided by Muraselon captures the moment a Buk-M2 fired twice, reportedly intercepting two missiles fired by Tel Aviv toward Syrian territory.


Austin
BRF Oldie
Posts: 23312
Joined: 23 Jul 2000 11:31

Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Austin » 23 Jan 2019 09:12

Video: Russian military police delivered humanitarian aid to civilians in the village of Dali Fa'r, Manbij area, handling over 500 food packages that include canned meat, sugar, rice, flour and tea. Follow #Russia's humanitarian efforts in Syria:

https://twitter.com/RusEmbMalta/status/ ... 7644256256

Singha
BRF Oldie
Posts: 66430
Joined: 13 Aug 2004 19:42
Location: the grasshopper lies heavy

Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 23 Jan 2019 12:39

missiles are easier to spot and track. i wonder if russis will provide jamming and soft kill e-systems to the syrians to disrupt the israeli missiles.

Austin
BRF Oldie
Posts: 23312
Joined: 23 Jul 2000 11:31

Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Austin » 27 Jan 2019 21:55

Singha wrote:missiles are easier to spot and track. i wonder if russis will provide jamming and soft kill e-systems to the syrians to disrupt the israeli missiles.


Easier to spot and track , Not really unless you are comparing it to may be a small wooden drone.

A Cruise missile of Kh-555 or even Tomahawk has an RCS of 0.1-0.-2 m2 and kh-101 has RCS of 0.01 m2 or 1/10

Israel has used Spice-1000 missile in the last strike here is some debris of Spice 1000 , In youtube you have video of Spice 1000/2000
https://twitter.com/QalaatAlMudiq/statu ... 2499599360

Judging by its dimension and size Spice 1000 will have RCS of 0.1m2 or lower , That would be a very diffcult target to track , lock for any AD.

Last attack Israel used more than 50 Standoff weapon like Spice possbly Popey , 30 were destroyed as per Russian MOD , So Israel is using overwhelming force to destroy a target knowing a lot of them would be shot down. 2 days before the last strike 6 stand off missile launched from MEditarian were all destroyed by SAA , So israel re-caliberated their strike and attacked with overwhelming force.

Well there is little SAA can do other then defend and attack is not an option so they are doing what they can. It has now become a war of attrition for SAA.

Israel MOD cheif once said he rather prefer to have IS in Syria then deal with Iran.

More detials on Strike https://sputniknews.com/military/201901 ... ypes-used/

Austin
BRF Oldie
Posts: 23312
Joined: 23 Jul 2000 11:31

Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Austin » 27 Jan 2019 21:55

Breaking. Multiple explosions over Jableh moments ago as it seems several UAVs tried to attack #Russia|n Airbase of #Khmeimim (for 2nd time since last Summer). There were apparently shot down by Russian air defenses. #Syria

https://twitter.com/QalaatAlMudiq/statu ... 9633775623

Austin
BRF Oldie
Posts: 23312
Joined: 23 Jul 2000 11:31

Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Austin » 31 Jan 2019 11:37

Video: Su-34 fired Kh-35 against ground targets in Syria

https://www.instagram.com/p/BtP2zqUnU-D/

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 11298
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby UlanBatori » 31 Jan 2019 18:12

Israel MOD cheif once said he rather prefer to have IS in Syria then deal with Iran.


This more or less explains the DT spat with his so-called "Intelligence" chiefs. The bugger said ISIS hasn't been defeated, they have thousands still in Syria and Iraq and are going back to their incognito mode.

Yes, but what he DIDN'T say is that (a) ISIS is propped up by US allies KSA, Israel and the US Deep State sh1ts - who bought out BO and HiC among others.
(b) So far all fighting AGAINST ISIS has been done by Putin's Generals Smirnoff and Vodkov, and by SAA and Iran.
(c) Turkey has become a "former AL-Lie" because Putin won their Hearts and Minds after they discovered the knife in their backs from their "Allies" and had only Putin to save them. Brilliant Intel strategy indeed...
(d) So the best course for US troops is to leave before their own "Allies" stage another Beirut Barracks episode.

The frustration is because neither the Intel chief nor DT can reveal the above because they are all probably Classified Not Even Gawd Allowed 2 c. But the Intel Chief is saying stuff that will be totally misinterpreted.

Also explains why Mattis etc leap off the sinking ship: Otherwise as US Jarnails they face the ignominy of standing in their fine suits with all the lettuce and acknowledging that the Russians were the only reason why the ISIS is being defeated. Must make them feel tres Francaise. :mrgreen:

Because sooner or later the real journalists will start asking the sorts of questions that will get them Khashoggied today. Too many examples already from Turkey...

Singha
BRF Oldie
Posts: 66430
Joined: 13 Aug 2004 19:42
Location: the grasshopper lies heavy

Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 31 Jan 2019 19:03

Austin wrote:Video: Su-34 fired Kh-35 against ground targets in Syria

https://www.instagram.com/p/BtP2zqUnU-D/


so it seems new model of kh35 for land attack like harpoon core was modified into slam missile replacing the guidance systems.

Austin
BRF Oldie
Posts: 23312
Joined: 23 Jul 2000 11:31

Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Austin » 31 Jan 2019 19:20

Yes , Land Attack features like latest harpoon and tested in Syrian conflict.

The latest Kh-35UE has active/passive radar homing and range of 250 km which is what they tested
http://eng.ktrv.ru/production/new_devel ... -35ue.html

The Su-34 was also used to test antiship role of Kh-35 missile

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8XUNP01cUs0

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 11298
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby UlanBatori » 02 Feb 2019 02:28

What's with the "ISIS' Last Stand that CNN is claiming? Surely not against the massive US attack?

Austin
BRF Oldie
Posts: 23312
Joined: 23 Jul 2000 11:31

Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Austin » 02 Feb 2019 14:40

Singha , UlanBatori good read from German Newspaper

Trump‘s Red Line

https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/art ... -Line.html

Singha
BRF Oldie
Posts: 66430
Joined: 13 Aug 2004 19:42
Location: the grasshopper lies heavy

Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 02 Feb 2019 15:22

UlanBatori wrote:What's with the "ISIS' Last Stand that CNN is claiming? Surely not against the massive US attack?


A last official pocket on euphrates near iraqi border

Unofficial they are rebadged and are all over

Singha
BRF Oldie
Posts: 66430
Joined: 13 Aug 2004 19:42
Location: the grasshopper lies heavy

Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Singha » 02 Feb 2019 15:22

UlanBatori wrote:What's with the "ISIS' Last Stand that CNN is claiming? Surely not against the massive US attack?


A last official pocket on euphrates near iraqi border

Unofficial they are rebadged and are all over

UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 11298
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby UlanBatori » 02 Feb 2019 16:58

Austin: The German author is also playing it safe. If you desperately want to tell the truth and survive, you MUST attack Trump. So he did put in the critical passage in that whole article:

..Fuel storage depot was primary target, created huge cloud that "prevented following missiles from finding their targets (BW alert: do cruise missiles just veer off if they see smoke? :rotfl: ) But he confirmed the Russian/SAA assertion that very few missiles actually reached any target.

... destroying nine Syrian aircraft, many fewer than claimed by the Trump administration. I was told that none of the nine was operational: such damaged aircraft are what the Air Force calls hangar queens. “They were sacrificial lambs,” the senior adviser said. Most of the important personnel and operational fighter planes had been flown to nearby bases hours before the raid began. The two runways and parking places for aircraft, which had also been targeted, were repaired and back in operation within eight hours or so. All in all, it was little more than an expensive fireworks display.


So what Trump ordered, secretly, was an agreed-upon "raid" that maintained the US "story" about Horrible Assad, placated the stupid elephants, kept the Braying Ones relatively quiet, and achieved nothing except to communicate to the Russians that he understood.

Had that been a really-intended punitive raid, a lot of heads would have rolled for such a result. In DupleeCity

This is the schizophrenic mess of US policy.

Austin
BRF Oldie
Posts: 23312
Joined: 23 Jul 2000 11:31

Re: Levant crisis - III

Postby Austin » 02 Feb 2019 20:30

UlanBatori wrote:
..Fuel storage depot was primary target, created huge cloud that "prevented following missiles from finding their targets (BW alert: do cruise missiles just veer off if they see smoke? :rotfl: ) But he confirmed the Russian/SAA assertion that very few missiles actually reached any target.


I think they may as Tomahawk uses DSMAC for terminal guidance

https://science.howstuffworks.com/cruise-missile3.htm
The DSMAC system uses a camera and an image correlator to find the target, and is especially useful if the target is moving.


What if those dense smoke prevents the camera to work correctly ?


Return to “Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 33 guests