Military Flight Safety

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SaiK
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Re: Military Flight Safety

Post by SaiK »

Check out Arun Prakash (@arunp2810):
The Mirage was not being flown by ordinary pilots; these were superbly trained ASTE Test Pilots. Mil has, fr decades, flown poor quality HAL machines & often paid with young lives but no reckoning for HAL management. Time to focus on leadership & Directors of this giant PSU. https://twitter.com/arunp2810/status/10 ... 61568?s=19
HAL-bashing may be justified up to a point, but time to question our elected reps too. 35 defence ministers have overseen this giant DPSU since 1947. While pampering its unions, none demanded quality, productivity & aeronautical innovation of HAL. Or hand-picked a dynamic CEO https://t.co/RQIRUYGXCW
prashantsharma
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Re: Military Flight Safety

Post by prashantsharma »

The writer of the Deccan Herald article has no basis to claim what he is claiming. At this time there is just no way of knowing what was the problem they faced, whether they had options or even if it was the pilots that forced the plane back down,
All he has done is look at the map to see what lay ahead of the doomed plane's flight path and assumed that since it didnt hit a populated area, it must have been intentional.
While the COI may eventually say that this was the case, at this moment, he just doesnt have any basis to make this claim.
viveks
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Re: Military Flight Safety

Post by viveks »

ks_sachin wrote:
That sir separates to a large part the men and women of the armed forces. Not doing your duty is a question of the paltans Izzat and perhaps the IAF pilots have the same consideration of the squadrons honour.

I dont agree with you. They were doing their primary duty ...they were testing an upgraded aircraft. There is no dishonor in saving your own ass when others dont do their job properly and vested interests come into the picture.

There is honor when you take care of your own unit/squadron and the people who you work with and are familiar with cause they are the ones who matter. and will miss your absence...others will just read the morning news paper and pass on to the next day. Things happen in other lives also which can be tragic also.
ks_sachin
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Re: Military Flight Safety

Post by ks_sachin »

viveks wrote:
ks_sachin wrote:
That sir separates to a large part the men and women of the armed forces. Not doing your duty is a question of the paltans Izzat and perhaps the IAF pilots have the same consideration of the squadrons honour.

I dont agree with you. They were doing their primary duty ...they were testing an upgraded aircraft. There is no dishonor in saving your own ass when others dont do their job properly and vested interests come into the picture.

There is honor when you take care of your own unit/squadron and the people who you work with and are familiar with cause they are the ones who matter. and will miss your absence...others will just read the morning news paper and pass on to the next day. Things happen in other lives also which can be tragic also.
That’s your prerogative but things don’t work like that.
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Re: Military Flight Safety

Post by viveks »

You can bring honor to yourself and family and close ones by staying rather alive than being dead. So you see them regularly and take care of their day to day needs. In todays world and especially when people take so long to bring in new equipment and make a political mockery out of a sale of equipment, I would think its the most correct approach boss rather than being stupid and putting on a show and taking out your life.
raghuk
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Re: Military Flight Safety

Post by raghuk »

A post from one of our guys who was personally involved in the process. I just wanted to put it in here because Twitter is filled with opinionated folks with very little understanding and information.

"I feel I owe an apology and clarification to the BoB.

Let me explain the process and what happened yesterday.

When a Mirage is overhauled, it is offered to us for flight testing. We test it rigorously and only when satisfied, hand the aircraft over to ASTE, which is the flight test agency of IAF. They put the aircraft through another series of tests and when they are satisfied, the aircraft goes to the field for op utilisation. The two stage testing is to doubly ensure that the aircraft meets all parameters in the field.

Our philosophy of testing is to believe that there is only one stage of testing. Therefore, we ensure that the aircraft meets all safety and performance parameters before we hand over to ASTE.

In this particular case, we had finished testing and handed over the aircraft to ASTE. The first sortie flown by late Abrol had only three words of debrief over the phone 'everything ok sir'. The second sortie was to be flown with a target aircraft to check radar performance. A comparitively benign profile. The accident happened on take off roll.

I was eye witness to the accident. Also part of the bunch of guys who reached the crash site first. Was impressed by some HAL civilians risking their lives to pull out the pilot from the burning wreckage. Unfortunately, he had not survived the impact. The other pilot had fallen clear of the wreckage. When we reached him, he was still breathing, but unconscious. To me, it looked like he would make it. But internal injuries claimed him on the way to hospital.

Conjectures

Did I miss something during our tests. Possible, but not likely, because Abrol had more experience than me on this aircraft, a sound professional and a test pilot. He would have caught it in the first sortie.

There could be any number of reasons ranging from technical defect, maintenance failure to pilot error. As of now, there are more questions than answers. One that the pilots will understand- how can an aircraft travel 6 markers with undercarriage up. Then go through barrier, sga and a wall and explode. But I saw it happen. HV Thakur is conducting the CoI. Most of us will remember him as ACC 80th course. IAF will also conduct its own Col. Hopefully truth will come out.


In defence of my outburst, in this case when you blame HAL, you are not blaming a nameless faceless organisation, the blame lies squarely on my shoulders. I feel by virtue of belonging to this BoB, I deserve a fair inquiry before being blamed.

As far as HAL producing sub standard aircraft, remember that we fly these aircraft to its limits before anyone from IAF touches it.

That does not mean that everything is ok with HAL. It only means that before an aircraft goes to IAF it's standards are good enough for me to bet my life on it. Remember, every pilot in IAF is also betting his life on my judgement.

If you have read through this long post. Thanks for your patience."

Om Shanthi to the departed souls.
Cheers!
nam
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Re: Military Flight Safety

Post by nam »

I don't know what was the reason and would not like to second guess it, however it is good to see our outcry is reaching HAL.

With IAF and HAL openly blaming each other, incidents like these just add fuel to the fire. Both the organisation and MoD need to set up.

It is now becoming a major national security concern. Cannot loose precious men and resources like this.
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Re: Indian Air Force News & Discussion - 15 Dec 2016

Post by Singha »

this particular machine had flown a few times by HAL and once earlier by IAF. it was the 6th or 7th flight.

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/bet-my- ... -topscroll
prashantsharma
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Re: Military Flight Safety

Post by prashantsharma »

Would like to understand how you have eliminated other potential causes like
1. Loss of power due to a bird hit or or any number of other mechanical reasons
2. A burst tyre causing a fire
3. An engine fire
Lets be patient and wait for the official report.
Nishn wrote:Considering all external variables....(heavy jet, drop tanks, Max. MTOW or thereabouts, have done a couple of prior flights before this one) it's beginning to look like a control column/stick jam effecting control surfaces at V - R/2 speed or the other being COG travelling outside the tolerance box at a critical pitch angle. Bless them. Feels like a loss among family circles.
Nishn
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Re: Military Flight Safety

Post by Nishn »

My thought process for eliminating
1) Bird hit : There would have been an immediate engine flame out, with visible signs of puffs of smoke and debris from the engine. Nothng was seen or mentioned. Bird hit on a control surface disabling the aircraft - possible.
2) Burst tyre and landing gear failure was after being airborne and then impact on runway surface. So the aircraft was airborne for a few seconds and a few feet above ground but could not sustain climb rate. My theory is exactly here at this juncture: Misssion aborted, landing gear re-extended, emergency landing attempted, but too much velocity and not enough runway length for procedure. Continuing the flight would have got the aircraft flying about 10 feet off the ground, no more, and over the wall but would have hit the residential area on the flight path.
3) Engine fire: there was no visible signs of engine fire.
krishna_krishna
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Re: Military Flight Safety

Post by krishna_krishna »

X posting from an ex ASTE pilot on the incident :

"This explains more in detail what happened to that ill fate Mirage, RIP brave pilots :

https://www.livefistdefence.com/2019/02 ... agedy.html"
fanne
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Re: Military Flight Safety

Post by fanne »

Overhaul and new aircraft have to be tested from somewhere. More likely than not (and an armchair guess), they will have mission abortion. Can not these activities be taken to places where the runway is big enough, surrounding area uncongested so that both the plane and the pilots have more options. The other thing should be that govt should acquire quite more area around it, (easy as in Chitradurga etc.) so that even if pop grew there was always more space. Even if it happens at HAL Bangalore, maybe after minimal testing (like it can fly and fly far), take these planes for further testing to these places and test them there?
I hope COI apart from coming up with reasons suggest further changes.
Rakesh
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Re: Military Flight Safety

Post by Rakesh »

Dehradun's Siddharth Negi dies in IAF fighter jet crash in Bengaluru
https://uttarakhandnewsnetwork.com/2019 ... bengaluru/

Dehradun’s Siddharth Negi, who was nicknamed ‘Golden Boy’ in the Air Force, was suddenly killed on his birthday on Friday. During a flight in Bangalore, his plane crashed at Hindustan Aeronautics Limited Airport yesterday. Sunil Negi, the neighbor of the squadron leader Siddharth Negi, said that it was also his birthday. In the morning, father Balbir Negi, greeted Siddharth. He had longed for his long life. Soon after this, an accident happened at around 10:30 AM and Siddharth died. Seeing this, the joy of birthday, turned into sorrow. Siddharth’s father is retired from the police department. His fellow pilot also died in the accident. As soon as this news reached his Panditwadi residence, there was a gloom in the entire neighborhood. His father Balbir Singh Negi, mother and other relatives have reached Bangalore late evening last night.

Panditwadi resident Balbir Singh Negi is a senior administrative officer at the graphic Era University. They have a son Siddharth Negi and a daughter. Siddharth Negi passed 12th from Seven Oaks School and 12th from KV FRI. After that he was selected in the NDA. In June 2009, he passed out from the Air Force Academy. Given his talent in training, he became known as Golden Boy. About two years ago Siddhartha was married to Dhruvika. Dhruvika is also an officer in the Air Force and posted in Bangalore. Squadron Leader Siddharth Negi in Air Force Mirage -2000 trainer aircraft was flying in Bangalore on Friday. During this time, his plane crashed at Hindustan Aeronautics Limited Airport. Siddharth’s father Balbir Singh Negi, along with other relatives, has arrived in Bangalore from the late evening. Their relatives have come to know that the final rites of Squadron Leader Siddhartha will be done on Saturday (Bangalore). Siddharth’s friends said that he was very fond of high flying. He came home on Diwali.
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Re: Military Flight Safety

Post by Rakesh »

raghuk wrote:A post from one of our guys who was personally involved in the process. I just wanted to put it in here because Twitter is filled with opinionated folks with very little understanding and information.
Thank you Raghu for posting this.

His eye witness incident ties in with the video floating around on youtube.

Squadron Leader Siddhartha Negi was the pilot who unfortunately landed on the burning wreckage. In the video, it shows that his burns were so severe, that he was unrecognizable. Similar to Wing Commander Vikas Upadhyay whose Mi-17 had a fatal crash on 06 October 2017 in Tawang, Arunachal Pradesh.

Wing Commander Vikas Upadhyay
https://www.honourpoint.in/profile/wg-c ... -upadhyay/

Squadron Leader Samir Abrol was the pilot who was still alive after parachuting to the ground. In the video you can see the villagers lift him up and shout for an ambulance. But as per the eye witness account - posted by Raghu - the internal injuries were too severe and died on the way to the hospital. Internal injuries could be any vital organ i.e. lungs.

I do not want to post the video here, because it is not respectful to either pilot or to their families. May their Souls Rest in Peace.
SaiK
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Re: Military Flight Safety

Post by SaiK »

With so many factors, the truth gets hidden.. I think we should focus on safety-criticalities than politics.
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Re: Military Flight Safety

Post by Shameek »

:( Cannot reconcile to this immense loss. Rest in peace brave brothers.
Rakesh
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Re: Military Flight Safety

Post by Rakesh »

Bharat Karnad article. Be forewarned. And I am not in HAL bashing mode. Will have to wait for the BOI to be completed.

If deejay, JayS or someone else can confirm the details (the bolded parts) in the article below, it would be appreciated.

How’s HAL not culpable for the Mirage 2000 crash (with addendum plus)?
https://bharatkarnad.com/2019/02/01/how ... 000-crash/

So Squadron Leaders Sameer Abrol and Siddarth Negi of the Aircraft and System Testing Establishment (ASTE) are dead in a frontline Mirage 2000 2-seater combat trainer aircraft HAL had just upgraded. They were on an “acceptance sortie” to assess whether the aircraft was good to re-enter squadron service. Then again, anything DPSUs/HAL touch — as my previous post suggested — turns to ashes.

There are many strange and curious things attending on this accident. For one thing the Mirage 2000 is designed for positive instability in pitch, meaning the plane always pitches upwards, which attribute combines with the leading edge flaps on the wings to enhance lift. Both these features ensure that the aircraft tends to be nose up and rearing to go. So how come it failed to clear the barrier at the end of the HAL runway?

It may be reasonably speculated that there obviously was enough runway distance from beginning its run, gathering speed on tarmac, to throttling up for actual takeoff for the two pilots — both good and experienced combat jocks, otherwise they wouldn’t be attached as test pilots to ASTE — to realize that the aircraft was not responding, and they were heading into the crash barrier. Possibly surprised, they may have activated the Martin-Baker zero-zero ejection system a trifle late. (The zero-zero system is supposed to eject pilots safely even when the plane is mobile on the ground.) Should a reconstruction of the event, in fact, show this to have been the case, then HAL will happily blame the pilot for the mishap and wash its hands off the accident.

[Plus: This aspect should have been included in the original post early last evening: There’s the issue of the apparent disjunction between the pilots powering up and the engine not responding adequately. I mean if there was sufficient takeoff distance but the plane failed to negotiate a takeoff then what other conclusion is there to reach? One can assume, moreover, that in an aircraft undergoing upgrade the state of the electronic interfaces between command and the jet power plant would be a priority for close examination. In the event, the finger again points at HAL.]

[Addendum, 2056 hrs: Then again, eye witnesses, according to a retired HAL test pilot who informed me, say they saw the nose wheel collapse on the takeoff roll itself, and when the pilots ejected, one of them landed right in the burning wreckage, and the other was fatally injured. This deepens the mystery around the escape system, especially because the aircraft had just been upgraded.]

In any aircraft upgrade programme, wouldn’t it be mandatory for its critical systems and sub-systems to be upgraded as well? Surely the ejection system is crucial enough for safety reasons to warrant upgradation. But was it so upgraded to the more advanced Martin-Baker Mk-18 configuration at least? If not, why not? And whose fault is it that the ejection system upgrade was not insisted on as part of the aircraft upgrade? IAF?

Assuming the 2-seater had retained the old MB system, did HAL during the upgrading process at a minimum not repeatedly test the system, check its pyrotechnics package to ensure the explosive component was in good condition and did not require to be replaced with a fresh charge so that if fired it would blow the canopy off its moorings and, simultaneously, eject the pilots clear off the wreckage? Very likely HAL did none of these things because if the system had been checked, tested and okayed, it couldn’t have malfunctioned at the first instance of use
.

As is usual in such accidents, a board of inquiry will be constituted, and the chances are Abrol and Negi will be blamed for “pilot error”, and HAL will go scott free. Indeed, HAL is rarely, if ever, held accountable for anything that goes wrong on aircraft it has worked on, or produced, i.e., assembled.

But what’s with HAL and failure of nose wheels? Not too long ago, an IAF test pilot attached to HAL, Nashik, took a Su-30MKI the DPSU unit manufactured up for a spin. While landing, the nose wheel failed to deploy, forcing the pilot into a touchdown on rear wheels leading to the nose coming down hard on the tarmac and the aircraft being damaged. The BOI that followed, led by an engineer but with nobody from the flying branch on the board, held the pilot wholly responsible for this event! How the pilot is responsible for a machine that’s freshly off the HAL factory floor, put together by this “nav-ratna” DPSU in its own facilities according to its own lax standards of production, boggles the mind. But this is how that episode panned out.

Will HAL be held culpable for the Mirage crash when the antecedent conditions are less transparent?
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Re: Military Flight Safety

Post by prashantsharma »

This article is a piece of crap
Indranil
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Re: Military Flight Safety

Post by Indranil »

raghuk wrote:A post from one of our guys who was personally involved in the process. I just wanted to put it in here because Twitter is filled with opinionated folks with very little understanding and information.

"I feel I owe an apology and clarification to the BoB.

Let me explain the process and what happened yesterday.
Thank you for posting this. It was very heart-felt and heart-touching. This is a profession where people trust each other with their lives, literally. Here's a guy who is sticking out his neck when he is really not to blame.

Now, two test-pilots, and Deejay (a former IAF pilot) have asked for restraint till the report comes out. Turns out the committee is headed by the best of the field.

This is a sobering note to self (armchair enthusiast), politicians and reporters who are hell-bent to assign blame and have no skin in the game.
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Re: Military Flight Safety

Post by Indranil »

viveks wrote:You can bring honor to yourself and family and close ones by staying rather alive than being dead. So you see them regularly and take care of their day to day needs. In todays world and especially when people take so long to bring in new equipment and make a political mockery out of a sale of equipment, I would think its the most correct approach boss rather than being stupid and putting on a show and taking out your life.
I understand and to some extent agree with your thoughts. In my heart of hearts, I wish they had ejected while skidding down the runway. That would have reduced the risk for them from a 0-0 ejection that they eventually did. But, sirjee, these two brothers are creme-de-le-creme aviators. They knew what they were doing much better than you and me. That they could keep the aircraft aligned to the centerline while skidding for 6 runway markers (1200 feet) on the fuel tanks is a testament to their calibre.
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Re: Military Flight Safety

Post by ks_sachin »

viveks wrote:You can bring honor to yourself and family and close ones by staying rather alive than being dead. So you see them regularly and take care of their day to day needs. In todays world and especially when people take so long to bring in new equipment and make a political mockery out of a sale of equipment, I would think its the most correct approach boss rather than being stupid and putting on a show and taking out your life.
As I said you have your point of view I have mine borne out of some experience..
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Re: Military Flight Safety

Post by Indranil »

viveks wrote:I consider this a bad aircraft and should not have been cleared to fly.
How do you know this sir. If this was the second or third third acceptance flight, the pilots themselves would have okayed it for the next sortie. Are you saying that there is something we know here over and above the HAL and ASTE TPs?
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Re: Military Flight Safety

Post by suryag »

Viveks any further unsubstantiated stuff from you will get you a 1month ban. Please cease and desist
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Re: Military Flight Safety

Post by JayS »

Rakesh wrote:
If deejay, JayS or someone else can confirm the details (the bolded parts) in the article below, it would be appreciated.
What can one say when the writer (and almost everyone out there) has made up his mind even before COI report comes (and indeed even before this accident happened) that whatever may the COI report says its HAL's fault. It COI finds issue with HAL, well and good. If not its HAL blaming pilots. Even though IAF has its own COI and they have no reason for favoring HAL.
Its sad to see people using this tragedy to score brownie points. I feel everyone of them is insulting the two departed souls, including the ex-AF officers. I dont know who they blame to for 9 past M2K accidents.

No knowledge is bad but half knowledge is worse. This writer is only displaying his half backed knowldege. Had he known some more he would have included it in possible ways how HAL must be responsible.for this tragedy.
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Re: Military Flight Safety

Post by gaurav.p »

JayS wrote:
What can one say when the writer (and almost everyone out there) has made up his mind even before COI report
...
Its sad to see people using this tragedy to score brownie points. I feel everyone of them is insulting the two departed souls, including the ex-AF officers. I dont know who they blame to for 9 past M2K accidents.

No knowledge is bad but half knowledge is worse. This writer is only displaying his half backed knowldege. Had he known some more he would have included it in possible ways how HAL must be responsible.for this tragedy.
Indeed sir! The media trial of HAL is distressing to see without the COI report. People with half baked stuff with no skin in the game just doing panchayati. Credit for the media trial should also go to raga after the Rafale controversy.

The media started with saying that HAL is incompetent, bunch of hollow leadership. Privatise them, bring ex-AF ceos, fire the employees, LCA 30yr old, upgrades soo slow. But ppl don't realise this HAL has been the sole maker of aircrafts in India. Nobody wants the elite pilots to die. HAL has issues but the solution proposed by so called experts with no work experience in HAL is not the solution! God knows how the DDM media would have reacted if the saras accident would have happened in recent times! The rise of SM is sort of a curse for HAL. The rise of coloumnists instead of journalists is the cause of this khichdi. All folks pls don't speculate and bring a single sided view of the picture through Lahori media.

Will aeroindia be more gloomier after this accident? Hope the josh/morale of everyone is not completely crumbled. Om Shanti.
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Re: Military Flight Safety

Post by viveks »

*POOF*

MOD NOTE: User Warned. No unsubstantiated claims or heresay will be entertained here. This is a sensitive matter where two souls have lost their lives. No one should use this to drive their agenda or personal prejudice. Not acceptable here.

-jayS
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Re: Military Flight Safety

Post by Indranil »

Sirjee, at this moment, you are making unsubstantiated outbursts out of half baked knowledge of FBW and the incident. Let the professionals do their job. They are more than adept at it.

P.S. I see that another mod has asked you to wait for the report. It is a just advice. Heed it.
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Re: Military Flight Safety

Post by Pratyush »

What's with HAL bashing all of a sudden?

Let's wait for the coi conclude before reaching for conclusion regarding cause of crash.
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Re: Military Flight Safety

Post by Indranil »

Sirjee, I don’t think you know anything of what you are speaking of.

1. These modifications come from Dassault. Dassault updated Mirages are flying with IAF. For example the ones which landed on the expressway were the updated ones. Six HAL updated Mirages are also flying with the IAF. Upgrades done at HAL are based on license.

2. You have zero knowledge of FBW. It is evident in what you are saying. If you want me to show your depth regarding the same, I would be happy to.

3. This upgrade had nothing to do with the FBW. HAL does not and can not touch the FBW of the Mirages. It is a black box to them.

THIS IS YOUR LAST WARNING.
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Re: Military Flight Safety

Post by Hari Nair »

May I request the armchair specialists, (especially of the likes of Mr Bharat Karnad) to desist from passing instant judgements and quoting ‘sources’ in HAL or others who told them exactly what happened and why HAL needs to be shut down.

I was an eyewitness to this extremely unfortunate accident and as pointed out earlier, there are puzzling aspects to the accident – after losing both main oleos, the aircraft has travelled almost 2 km on its belly / drop tanks on the runway, gone through the arrester barrier and punched through a solidly built airfield perimeter wall.

The investigation is on and one aspect that is noteworthy is that external camera records of the accident indicating the sequence, are available. The debris field and its sequence have already been photographed and mapped out. CoI / investigation is doubtless, focusing on the FDR-CVR.

Request take a step back, read Raghuk’s post given earlier quoting an HAL TP and wait for the cause factor to be determined (which will be done, let me assure the cynics), before passing judgement.
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Re: Military Flight Safety

Post by deejay »

^ Thank You Sir. Much needed post.
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Re: Military Flight Safety

Post by JayS »

Any speculative post here, based on unsubstantiated claim, or general tirade devoid of facts or technically correct information will be dealt with iron hand. If one is really interested in analyzing on what went wrong, go ahead, but make sure you stick to the facts and that you have enough technical substantiation to back up. And no finger pointing. If you don't know, keep mum and wait for COI report. At least don't insult the memories of the two souls who just lost their lives and their families are still mourning.
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Re: Military Flight Safety

Post by suryag »

thread cleaned up
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Re: Military Flight Safety

Post by chetak »

@viveks

Many validated and verified upgrade options, often after flight tests, are offered by the manufacturers, cleared by the relevant inspection authorities in france. Almost all these upgrades are flight tested by the manufacturer prior to release to customers, primary among them being the french airforce. Some upgrades may not require flight testing.

The customer (IAF) too does his own test flights of the selected upgrades, often at the manufacturer's facility in france. IAF would have done all this before the upgrades were decided upon and definitely prior to the upgrades being purchased.

The IAF chooses of some these upgrades per its specific requirements.

The upgrade kit(s) and other relevant installation/inspection documents along with approved post installation test procedures are bought by the IAF/HAL and the same is/are installed on the aircraft. Some kits may be made by HAL under a license agreement specific to the upgrade. Such locally manufactured kits are never flight critical.

HAL would never initiate a flight critical upgrade development and forward the same to the french manufacturer for "approval".

They simply do not have the relevant mirage specific domain knowledge, I say again THEY SIMPLY DO NOT HAVE THE REQUIRED MIRAGE SPECIFIC DOMAIN KNOWLEDGE.

The upgrades are already validated, verified, and flight test proved options that are being installed by HAL.

Moreover, HAL pilots had already flown this very aircraft on a number of sorties after the upgrade and cleared it. All these critical flight test reports would have been carefully scrutinized by ASTE prior to their own acceptance test flights.

Don't bring your half baked "railroad" knowledge to the aerospace field. I seriously doubt if you have ever worked in the design field anywhere.
prashantsharma
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Re: Military Flight Safety

Post by prashantsharma »

@Nishn
Letting myself get into this discussion, only to make the point that its best to keep quiet when there are so many unknowns, and/or we are not eye-witnesses ourselves and MOST IMPORTANTLY we don't know the ins and outs of the engineering or the piloting of this aircraft. I know enough to be able to pick flaws in your flimsy reasoning, but that doesn't qualify me to make up my own cogent explanation of what did happen, so I don't offer any.

At this point, all possibilities will be explored by the COI and nothing will be ruled out. Best to keep shut till the official findings comes out, rather than try to sound very knowledgable (and achieve the exact opposite), force fit pet theories of disconnected stick or jammed control surfaces or whatever, and treating this like a game where one has to predict the outcome like a stock picking contest or at the end be able to say "I told you so".

So here goes -
1. How do you know there weren't "puffs of smoke" or there wasn't an "immediate engine flame out" or a fire in the aircraft? Are puffs of smoke characteristic of each and every bird hit? Has each and every bit of evidence or eyewitness report been released to the public? And FYI - Eyewitness reports are notoriously unreliable and inconsistent - some talk about one oleo collapsing, some say both, even read somewhere about the nose wheel collapsing. One source quoted by R.Chandrashekhar says aircraft "veered" off the runway, most others say it stuck to the centreline till the very end. I also wonder how some eyewitness spotted a 'wobbling wheel' on an aircraft travelling at a couple of hundred kmphs? Were they in the ATC a kilometres away and high above at an angle where the big delta wing blocks view of the landing gear. Or was this guy loitering at the edge of the runway, waiting to become an eye-witness?
2. You are convinced the stick was jammed or disconnected, but conveniently that didnt stop the plane from getting airborne, or from coming back down? How do you know the plane could not "sustain climb rate", even the pilots could in certain circumstances may have tried to put the plane back on the ground? And make up your mind - was it inability to sustain climb rate or jammed/disconnected stick/surfaces?
3. As for your COG theory, or how you got a magic figure of 10 feet and "no more" - such precision! wow! And what pray, made the CoG move outside this 'box'?
4. Why do you think the pilots got the landing gear up before they were even 10 feet up? And then they "re-extended" it?
In summary - crap analysis from someone who wants to sound knowledgable but knows jack about the subject


Nishn wrote:My thought process for eliminating
1) Bird hit : There would have been an immediate engine flame out, with visible signs of puffs of smoke and debris from the engine. Nothng was seen or mentioned. Bird hit on a control surface disabling the aircraft - possible.
2) Burst tyre and landing gear failure was after being airborne and then impact on runway surface. So the aircraft was airborne for a few seconds and a few feet above ground but could not sustain climb rate. My theory is exactly here at this juncture: Misssion aborted, landing gear re-extended, emergency landing attempted, but too much velocity and not enough runway length for procedure. Continuing the flight would have got the aircraft flying about 10 feet off the ground, no more, and over the wall but would have hit the residential area on the flight path.
3) Engine fire: there was no visible signs of engine fire.
Pratyush
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Re: Military Flight Safety

Post by Pratyush »

The black box is recovered. Let the COI go through that and only then will the real cause be known. Until then we should not speculate.

It's painful enough as it is. By having pet theories we are entering the conspiracy theory territory.

Please stand back and let the COI finish the investigation.
viveks
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Re: Military Flight Safety

Post by viveks »

Good sense prevails over time.
suryag
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Re: Military Flight Safety

Post by suryag »

Thanks Viveks you are banned for 2 weeks
Rakesh
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Re: Military Flight Safety

Post by Rakesh »

‘My son loved to fly Mirage 2000’, says father of IAF officer killed in crash in Bengaluru
https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... tc0EM.html

Image
Rishi_Tri
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Re: Military Flight Safety

Post by Rishi_Tri »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xsTxFobOrP4

Includes Hawk i, brings to fore many issues of flight safety, carries interviews of HAL Chief Test Pilot, CMD T Suvarna Raju, and of course a Civilian's view of flying on the edge. Includes visuals of Hawk flying at 30 feet or so.
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