Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

[Supratik]

GST rate cut in real estate.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ma ... 146677.cms

[Singha]

https://www.news18.com/news/india/benga ... _top_pos_1

Namo punctures the no jobs balloon citing jobs data from oppn ruled KA and WB

[Uttam]

This explains why there was an urgency to reduce interest rates. I hope they make another cut soon.

India’s GDP growth slows to five-quarter low of 6.6 per cent in Q3

[hanumadu]

I was concerned something was not right with the low inflation.

[Vips]

Manufacturing activity at 14-month high in Feb.

Manufacturing activity in India improved at a 14-month high in February, accelerated by an increase in sales which fuelled growth of output and employment, a private survey showed on Friday. The Nikkei India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 54.3 in February, up from 53.9 in January. A reading above 50 on this index indicates expansion and below that mark, contraction.

[Uttam]

I think the following new is misleading. My explanation below. Experts can chime in!

GST collection drops to Rs 97,247 crore in February

GST collections in February dropped to Rs 97,247 crore in February from Rs 1.02 lakh crore in the previous month, the Finance Ministry said Friday.

Why misleading? There are 28 days in Feb and 31 days in Jan. So 1.02 lakh crore over 31 days = 0.0329 lakh crores per day. Whereas 97247 crore over 28 days = 0.0347 lakh crores. So there is actually a growth in GST collection. Am I wrong?

[chaitanya]

Why misleading? There are 28 days in Feb and 31 days in Jan. So 1.02 lakh crore over 31 days = 0.0329 lakh crores per day. Whereas 97247 crore over 28 days = 0.0347 lakh crores. So there is actually a growth in GST collection. Am I wrong?

Nope, not at all... in fact, its quite a frequent mistake made by analysts. Easy to skew numbers one way or another!

[Suraj]

Official CSO report of Q3 2018-19 GDP (PDF)
Impressions:
* The primary factor pushing GVA downwards in Q3 was manufacturing which 'only' grew 6.7% . However is is a case of high base effect since manufacturing GVA grew 8.6% in previous fiscal Q3. Q2 was also impacted the same way. Relatively, Q3 actually grew more on a high base than Q2 did, despite Q3 having an even higher base (8.6% vs 7.1%) to surmount. Not really a bad performance.
* Agriculture is down sequentially from 4.2% in Q2 to 2.7% in Q3. Seasonal trend, should pick up in Q4.
* Other headers like electricity/water/gas (8.2%) , construction (9.6%) all remain robust.
* GFCF (investment / GDP) is actually up to 33.1% in Q3, from 32.x% in first half of the fiscal.
* All YoY numbers (Statement 9 and 10) look pretty decent overall, better than last fiscal year.

I see this Q3 data is primarily a statistical artifact of high base effect and seasonal results. Nothing that screams out 'deceleration', actually the opposite considering rising GFCF.

[Austin]

Trump to terminate India trade benefits, demands ‘equitable & reasonable’ access to its markets

US President Donald Trump has announced his intention to end preferential trade treatment for India, accusing New Delhi of failing to convince Washington it will provide “equitable and reasonable” access to its markets.

“I am providing notice of my intent to terminate the designation of India as a beneficiary developing country under the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) program,” Trump said in a letter to Congress on Monday.

I am taking this step because, after intensive engagement between the United States and the Government of India, I have determined that India has not assured the United States that it will provide equitable and reasonable access to the markets of India.

The move to end India's participation in the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) program has been in the works since at least April 2018, after Washington launched a review into New Delhi’s eligibility for the program. All this time Trump has been accusing New Delhi of taking advantage of the arrangement, under which it enjoys zero tariffs on $5.6 billion of exports to the United States.

India is a very high tariff nation,” Trump told the Conservative Political Action Conference on Saturday. “When we send a motorcycle to India, they charge 100 per cent tariff. When India sends a motorcycle to us, we charge nothing.”

I want a reciprocal tax, at least I want to charge a tax.

Bilateral trade in goods and services between India and the US has tripled over the last decade and reached $126 billion in 2017. Despite good relations with the South Asian country, Trump has repeatedly made clear he sees the $27 billion trade deficit as “unfair.”

The US-Indian tensions escalated in June last year, when Washington slapped the country with 25 percent tariffs on steel and 10 percent levies on aluminum. In response, New Delhi accused Washington of unfair trade practices and threatened to retaliate by slapping tariffs on $1.4 billion of US goods. Further deterioration of the cozy trade relationship with Washington could prove problematic for India, for which the US serves as its second largest export market with 16 percent.

[Suraj]

The GSP story is mostly US domestic politics. India stopped qualifying for it years ago, having exceeded the income threshold. GSP eligible items account for $5 billion out of ~$320 billion in merchandise exports for the year 2018-19, and ~$520 billion in overall exports.

[Prem]

http://myiris.com/news/economy/indias-s ... 5162605199
India's services PMI rises to 52.5 in January 2019

Economic conditions in India’s dominant service sector remained positive in February, with a quicker expansion in new work supporting a faster increase in output and solid job creation.Business sentiment also improved, while rates of both input cost and output charge inflation cooled. One area of weakness was international trade, with exports down from January.Rising from 52.2 in January to 52.5 in February, the seasonally adjusted Nikkei India Services Business Activity Index pointed to a moderate though quicker upturn in output. Greater bookings, the securing of new clients and supportive public policies were often commented on by companies that reported higher output.With growth of manufacturing production also gathering momentum in February, the seasonally adjusted Nikkei India Composite PMI Output Index rose from 53.6 in January to 53.8 to signal a solid and accelerated increase in private sector activity in the country.New business received by services companies rose to a greater extent in February amid strengthening underlying demand. Some firms also suggested that marketing efforts bore fruit. At the same time, growth of factory orders climbed to a 28-month peak.The upturn in services new work was domestically driven, as highlighted by a renewed contraction in external sales. Conversely, goods producers were able to secure orders from international markets. The increase was solid and picked up pace from January.
Business sentiment among service providers strengthened in February on the back of expectations of further improvements in domestic demand, advertising efforts and the offering of new services. The level of confidence towards the 12- month outlook for activity was nonetheless below its long-run average.

[Supratik]

Demo WIP still ongoing.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... s?from=mdr

[VinodTK]

MSMEs created 14% more jobs in last four years, claims CII s ..

MUMBAI: Job creation by the micro, small and medium enterprise (MSMEs) sector saw a growth of 13.9 per cent in the past four years claims an industry survey.

The findings are contrary to the official and other industry data which show that there was massive job losses since the note ban and GST implementation in this very sector.
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[nithish]

Fugitive Nirav Modi tracked down in London: Makeover, £8 million flat and a new diamond business

Fugitive billionaire diamantaire Nirav Modi, one of the prime accused in the Punjab National Bank scam, has been tracked down to the United Kingdom.

The 48-year-old most wanted man now lives in an £8 million apartment in London’s West End and is now involved in a new diamond business, UK-based newspaper The Telegraph has reported.

The UK daily has also released a video of Nirav Modi walking freely on the streets of London.

With a handle-bar moustache, longer hair and a jacket, Nirav Modi is not easily recognisable.

As he is confronted by the newspaper over allegations levelled against him, Nirav Modi says "no comments" as he continues to smile.

The intel agencies had earlier provided input the Nirav Nodi had changed his appearance to disguise people.

The MOST WANTED MAN

An extradition request against Nirav Modi is pending since September last year before the UK authorities.

The investigative agencies told India Today that they are not happy with the UK authorities over the developments in connection with Nirav Modi’s extradition. After a Red Corner Notice was issued against Modi, we sent an extradition request to UK authorities with his address. The authorities were expected to provisionally arrest Modi so that judicial process can start but till date no action has been taken, said a senior officer.

The senior officials of Enforcement Directorate have sent multiple reminders to the UK authorities to arrest Nirav Modi, but no action has been taken.

Video here

[Suraj]

Where Will Global GDP Growth Come From in the Next Five Years?

[Prem]

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Market ... month-high
India defies Asia slump as manufacturing hits 14-month high

INGAPORE -- India, Asia's third largest economy, is bucking the regional trend in manufacturing activity, after February's performance expanded at the fastest pace in 14 months, the latest Nikkei Purchasing Managers' Index survey revealed.The monthly Nikkei PMI survey asks companies in major Asian countries and regions except China about changes in output, orders and other business conditions compared with a month earlier. A PMI reading below 50 indicates contraction, while over 50 points to expansion. Of the 15 sets of PMI data, nine showed a drop in February from the previous month and six rose. Looking specifically at the manufacturing sector PMIs, most of the results were down.A notable exception was India. Its manufacturing PMI rose to 54.3 from January's 53.9, its highest level since December 2017. The growth of new orders was fastest since October 2016.India's major manufacturing operations are in chemicals, machinery, metals and textiles. The country has been strengthening the manufacturing sector under Prime Minister Narendra Modi's "Make in India" initiative. With a population of 1.3 billion and an economic growth rate at around 7% -- faster than China and most Asian nations -- the country has enjoyed strong domestic demand over recent months. In February, 21% of the companies surveyed signaled a growth in new orders. Local auto maker Mahindra & Mahindra, for example, sold 52,915 cars in the domestic market during the month, up 9% from a year ago."A number of panelists indicated the acceptance of bulk orders from clients in key export destinations," the survey also noted.
India's biggest export destinations are the U.S. and the United Arab Emirates, accounting for 16% and 10% of the total exports in 2017, respectively, according to the World Bank. China was its fourth biggest customer at 4%

[Singha]

very telling charts and shows the shrinking power of the EU and everyone is suddenly mysteriously without even any dossiers willing to "accomodate indian interests" much more than in the past.

all others combined being 22.2 is shockingly low considering world has nearly 200 nations.

also note from 0.9% contrib in 2018, Pak is not to be seen in 2022-2023....while bangladesh makes an entry...this is very much expected in keeping with their current trajectory.

pak is staring at an abyss and no amt of saber rattling and jihadi tanzeems can change that. I fear its beyond a tipping point. pain is certain. hopefully it will implode into itself and become another sudan or somalia before some internal "reorg" and not burn its neighbours.

[Suraj]

We don't yet live in an era where our actual economy is monstrously large yet, unless you look at it in PPP terms, where it's still a distant number 3. However, as of this year, we have overtaken the US as the 2nd largest engine of global growth.

The above charts are in PPP. In absolute GDP:


India has 20% of Eurozone absolute dollar GDP and contributes more incremental growth. Despite Anglophone Commonwealth nations having 2x India's absolute dollar GDP, India generates 170% of their incremental GDP growth.

Growth of output is far more significant than total heft. In the absolute GDP chart India is somewhere #5-6. But in terms of incremental output each year, we add more than the others in approximately 5-9 positions *combined*.

[VinodTK]

India rupee hits two-and-a-half months high as inflows surge; RBI not spotted

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Foreign inflows into Indian stock markets have surged after the odds of Prime Minister Narendra Modi coming back to power for a second term increased on the back of a wave of patriotism following India's military strike on Pakistan in retaliation for a suicide attack in the disputed Kashmir region.
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[souravB]

It May Not Be A Bad Thing For India If GSP Goes...

[nam]

Deleted

[arun]

X Posted from the “Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion” thread.

A month old article that has not been posted on this thread built around an interview by First Post of MD and CEO of Indian Strategic Petroleum Reserves Limited (ISPRL) which is liberally dusted with nuggets of information on our country India’s crude oil storage.

We currently have a storage capacity totalling 74-74.5 days of crude oil requirements. This is slated to rise to 86-87 days of requirement when ISPRL completes phase 2 of its plan. ISPRL built its present storage capacity at USD 17 per barrel of crude oil against global average of USD 23 per barrel:

‘India’s reserves built at $17 per barrel, global average is $23’

[Katare]

Deleted. No comparisons with riff raff here.

[Singha]

there was a programme i either WION or channel news asia(singapore) about cheeni manufacturing moving deep into vietnam to hedge their bets on tariffs. frantic pace of construction in haiphong which is a seaport 2 hrs drive from hanoi near the cheen border. a couple of lady consultants were seen touring the place, she represents a group of 40 OEMs who were collectively looking to open in vietnam...so perhaps small and medium scale units band together via these consultants to obtain the necessary permits.

vietnam is well positioned for cos to derisk their china ops. so too is thailand, indonesia & malaysia

[Mort Walker]

What’s with all this noise about 100 economists across the world complaining about quality of India’s economic data? It’s seems they’re trying to disrupt or influence election outcomes to prove the Modi govt. is wrong.

[Raveen]

What’s with all this noise about 100 economists across the world complaining about quality of India’s economic data? It’s seems they’re trying to disrupt or influence election outcomes to prove the Modi govt. is wrong.

If they've been lapping up China's BS data for this long, they need to keep their lying mouths shut

[disha]

What’s with all this noise about 100 economists across the world complaining about quality of India’s economic data? It’s seems they’re trying to disrupt or influence election outcomes to prove the Modi govt. is wrong.

Those 108 (or is it 109) economists are jobless and are looking for jobs and are blaming GOI for it. None of them I think understand economics. And all of them are politically motivated. But since they are jobless and looking for jobs, they think they can get some attention (and money) by spouting politically motivated nonsense.

[Kakkaji]

Infra development, clearing backlog of defence purchases to be priorities for future: FM Arun Jaitley

Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said Friday the government's priority for the future would be infrastructure development and clearing backlog of defence procurement, among others.

Development of rural India and improvement of healthcare and education would be the other priority areas, he said at the Hindu Business Line award function here.

"In future may be four priorities-- rural India, backlog of defence procurement, healthcare and education and of course infrastructure," he said.

"I foresee a better quality of life in urban slums, rural India and the policies must be aimed at allowing these people to aspire and get into at least neo middle class. Two areas where we seriously need to concentrate is healthcare and education," he said.

[nithish]

Exclusive: Indian antitrust watchdog raids Glencore business, others over pulse prices - sources

India’s antitrust watchdog raided units of global commodities trader Glencore and two other firms in Mumbai on Saturday in an inquiry into alleged collusion on the price of pulses, four sources with knowledge of the raids told Reuters.

More than 25 antitrust officials carried out the raids at the offices of local units of Glencore and Africa’s Export Trading Group, and India’s Edelweiss group which previously had a commodities business, two government sources told Reuters.

The Competition Commission of India (CCI) has been investigating allegations that the companies formed a cartel to discuss the pricing of pulses while importing and selling them in the Indian market at higher prices in 2015 and 2016, when India faced an acute shortage, the sources said.

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The raids on five company offices in India’s financial capital began on Friday and were concluded on Saturday.

Antitrust officials collected evidence, including documents and e-mails, and questioned company officials during the raids, a second government source said.

Another source, an industry executive, told Reuters that CCI’s search involved going through company records at Glencore’s office in Mumbai, confirming it was part of the watchdog’s probe into accusations of fixing import prices.

The drought during 2015 wilted crops and exacerbated shortages of food such as protein-rich pulses and India, which consumes about 22 million tonnes of pulses annually, faced a shortfall of 7-8 million tonnes in 2015-16.

The CCI’s raids on commodities traders mark only its fourth such search operation in its near 10-year history. They can only be conducted with approval from a judge.

[A_Gupta]

There is a discrepancy between Nikkei Manufacturing PMI and the manufacturing growth as reported by the CSO.
https://answer2pakteahouse.blogspot.com ... uring.html

[Suraj]

PMI and CSO growth data are not the same thing anyway . The first is a sequential up/down indicator constructed from a multiple point survey sent out. The second is a YoY percentage growth figure generated from actual output data . The chart only lists the PMI scale . There’s also a greater lag in reporting the second compared to the first .

One more thing is that it’s not clear there’s a good overlap in the two entities measured . Specifically , manufacturing just happens to be the largest component of the CSOs IIP data, with a just under 60% percent contribution . The rest comes from core sector items - steel, electricity, coal, fuel refining, cement etc .

[A_Gupta]

PMI and CSO growth data are not the same thing anyway . The first is a sequential up/down indicator constructed from a multiple point survey sent out. The second is a YoY percentage growth figure generated from actual output data . The chart only lists the PMI scale . There’s also a greater lag in reporting the second compared to the first .

One more thing is that it’s not clear there’s a good overlap in the two entities measured . Specifically , manufacturing just happens to be the largest component of the CSOs IIP data, with a just under 60% percent contribution . The rest comes from core sector items - steel, electricity, coal, fuel refining, cement etc .

The chart is not IIP. This is IIP: https://tradingeconomics.com/india/indu ... production.

This is manufacturing production: https://tradingeconomics.com/india/manu ... production.

AFAIK, Nikkei Manufacturing PMI is trying to be a leading indicator of the latter, not the former.

The point is that either the Nikkei Manufacturing PMI is moving away from being a good indicator of manufacturing expansion; or else suddenly a whole lot of manufacturing growth is going to show up in the statistics. But there is something of a discrepancy.

[Suraj]

PMI and CSO growth data are not the same thing anyway . The first is a sequential up/down indicator constructed from a multiple point survey sent out. The second is a YoY percentage growth figure generated from actual output data . The chart only lists the PMI scale . There’s also a greater lag in reporting the second compared to the first .

One more thing is that it’s not clear there’s a good overlap in the two entities measured . Specifically , manufacturing just happens to be the largest component of the CSOs IIP data, with a just under 60% percent contribution . The rest comes from core sector items - steel, electricity, coal, fuel refining, cement etc .

The chart is not IIP. This is IIP: https://tradingeconomics.com/india/indu ... production.

This is manufacturing production: https://tradingeconomics.com/india/manu ... production.

AFAIK, Nikkei Manufacturing PMI is trying to be a leading indicator of the latter, not the former.

The point is that either the Nikkei Manufacturing PMI is moving away from being a good indicator of manufacturing expansion; or else suddenly a whole lot of manufacturing growth is going to show up in the statistics. But there is something of a discrepancy.

CSO does not independently report manufacturing growth. Manufacturing is a component of IIP. For example, 2011-12 series data are here:
MOSPI/CSO IIP 2011-12 series data. This is right from the source, not tradingeconomics aggregator content. CSO's definition of IIP separates manufacturing from certain other industries defined as core sector output, including steel, cement, electricity, crude oil and refining, electricity and a couple of others. There's no indicator as to whether Nikkei PMI matches this.

The point still remains that the chart doesn't show two Y axes, as it should. Also, the PMI is not a pure quantitative measure as IIP data is - it includes hiring, inventory accumulation, expectation of growth in addition to actual performance surveying.

It's hard to make any sort of trendline view of even IIP in isolation, much less IIP or 'manufacturing' vs PMI. In the recent past, I made an effort to track IIP over a 1-2 year period not just a monthly figure, but a rolling 3-mo and 6-mo average. In my view, monthly PMI is similarly noisy and very little can be gleaned by comparing monthly IIP/manufacturing vs PMI data. But a rolling 3-mo or 6-mo figure ? That might be more interesting. IIP figures certainly were.

Added: here's my last post of data, I did this until end of 2017-18 fiscal year in March 2018:
post link
Updated for current fiscal year, just 3-mo rolling average though. High base effect from prior year has impacted Nov-Jan figures. I don't expect numbers to improve until March 2019 data.

Code: Select all

Mth	CY	  FY        IIP   3-mo  6-mo Notes
Jan   2019   2018-19   1.7   1.5   
Dec	2018	2018-19	2.4	3.7		
Nov	2018	2018-19	0.5	4.4		
Oct	2018	2018-19	8.1	5.6		
Sep	2018	2018-19	4.5	5.1		
Aug	2018	2018-19	4.3	5.4		
Jul	2018	2018-19	6.6	5.3		
Jun	2018	2018-19	5.2	4.7		
May	2018	2018-19	4.0	4.4		
Apr	2018	2018-19	4.9	5.5		
Mar   2018   2017-18   4.4   6.3   6.2   End of fiscal year
Feb   2018   2017-18   7.1   7.2   6.1
Jan   2018   2017-18   7.5   7.8   5.7
Dec	2017	2017-18	7.1	6.0	4.6	
Nov	2017	2017-18	8.8	4.9	3.4	
Oct	2017	2017-18	2.2	3.5	2.2	
Sep	2017	2017-18	3.8	3.2	2.4	
Aug	2017	2017-18	4.5	1.9	2.2	
Jul	2017	2017-18	1.2	0.9	1.2	GST Effective
Jun	2017	2017-18	-0.1	1.6	1.5	
May	2017	2017-18	1.7	2.5	1.4	
Apr	2017	2017-18	3.1	1.5	2.1	
Mar	2017	2016-17	2.7	1.4	1.3	
Feb	2017	2016-17	-1.2	0.4	0.9	
Jan	2017	2016-17	2.7	2.7	1.0	
Dec	2016	2016-17	-0.4	1.1	0.2	
Nov	2016	2016-17	5.7	1.5	0.6	Demonetization
Oct	2016	2016-17	-1.9	-0.6	-0.2	
Sep	2016	2016-17	0.7	-0.8	0.0	
Aug	2016	2016-17	-0.7	-0.3	-0.1	
Jul	2016	2016-17	-2.4	0.3	0.4	
Jun	2016	2016-17	2.1	0.8	0.5	
May	2016	2016-17	1.2	0.2	-0.1	
Apr	2016	2016-17	-0.8	0.4	-0.8	
Mar	2016	2015-16	0.05	0.2	1.0	
Feb	2016	2015-16	2.0	-0.3	1.6	
Jan	2016	2015-16	-1.5	-2.0	2.3	
Dec	2015	2015-16	-1.3	1.8	3.3	
Nov	2015	2015-16	-3.2	3.5	4.2	
Oct	2015	2015-16	9.8	6.7	5.2	
Sep	2015	2015-16	3.8	4.8	4.2	
Aug	2015	2015-16	6.4	5.0	3.9	
Jul	2015	2015-16	4.2	3.8	3.6	
Jun	2015	2015-16	4.4	3.5	3.4	
May	2015	2015-16	2.7	2.7	2.9	
Apr	2015	2015-16	3.4	3.5	1.8	
Mar	2015	2014-15	2.1	3.2	0.6	
Feb	2015	2014-15	5.0	3.1	0.6	
Jan	2015	2014-15	2.6	0.2	-0.1	
Dec	2014	2014-15	1.7	-2.1	-0.5	
Nov	2014	2014-15	-3.8	-1.8	-0.2	
Oct	2014	2014-15	-4.2	-0.4	1.2	
Sep	2014	2014-15	2.5	1.1		
Aug	2014	2014-15	0.4	1.4		
Jul	2014	2014-15	0.5	2.9		
Jun	2014	2014-15	3.4			
May	2014	2014-15	4.7			GE 2014

[A_Gupta]

131 CAs Debunk Allegations Of India’s ‘Shambolic Economic Statistics’ Made By Certain Economists, Social Scientists

https://swarajyamag.com/insta/131-cas-d ... scientists via @swarajyamag

[Vips]

RBI may soon become world's 10th largest holder of gold.

[Suraj]

Mod Note

All of the EV discussion has been moved to the Indian Autos Thread

[Katare]

Couldn’t find a better place so posting it here, very informative. Who knew Bijapur in its days was India’s largest city and counted among world’s largest.

nice graphics-Shows how worlds largest city ranking changes with national economic and political fortunes

[Rudradev]

TIMES NOW- VMR POLL

40.2% of respondents consider Jobs to be their primary issue of concern. BUT

https://public.flourish.studio/visualis ... ion/255979

76% of voters either do not believe that job losses have increased or do not blame the government for unemployment

39.5% do not believe that job losses have increased; rather, they feel that the employment situation has improved/stabilised.

36.4% agree that there is a problem with job losses but DO NOT believe it has been aggravated by government policy or inaction; they see the current level of unemployment as a natural consequence of the regular economic ebb and flow.

24% blame the government for aggravating unemployment and believe the government is faking economic data.

Hoping the Admins will not consider this post overly political. If economics is the science of how people make choices, then their perceptions and sentiments about the circumstances they experience has value as an economic indicator. Personally I'm proud of most Indian voters for their capacity to form thoughtful opinions (assuming the sample in this poll is reflective of the population at large).

[Suraj]

Economics is the science of how people make choices regarding goods and services, not choices at the ballot box However, the post is fine, but any discussion veering towards voting will disappear.

[SaiK]

Marc Faber is wrong. 2028 or 2038 or later, the rupee is unlikely to ever hit 100
Some of the reasons why this may not happen, include the new 4% inflation target and India's rapid growth.

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/busin ... 01141.html