Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

[gashish]

https://www.opindia.com/2019/03/narendr ... r-is-good/

PM Modi said that today, the country has experienced the lack of Rafale fighter jets. “If we had Rafale, the outcome (of the February 26 air strikes on terror camps in Pakistan followed by Pakistan’s retaliatory airspace violation attacking India’s military installations) might have been different. Because of politics on Rafale, India has lost.”

Apparently said this at the India Today Conclave, haven't watched the video - don't know what to make out of this though.

I watched it...he said (paraphrasing).."...Rafale hota toh nateeja yis bhi aur hota"...implying, results would have been even better that what was achieved. In fact, he urged ppl to not trust fake news coming out of padosi desh, and have faith in what armed forces have said.
I dont recall him uttering these words..."..India has lost"

[Y I Patel]

I am not sure that has happened yet YIP, as Pakistanis are adept at lying to themselves and the PAF is also adept at lying to everyone and I wish NaMo had allowed a proper retaliation to happen, war or no war. An AFB wrecked in a retaliatory strike would have been proper humiliation, the kind that couldn't be hidden. Burning airframes, smoke etc.

I remain hopeful. The "pilot project" quip and then the meeting with Nirmala M'am and Jaitley.

Granted, but if you notice I left out a lot of context. Including what I was advocating as minimal action

My hopes are high.

[saip]

Why are their planes still hugging their west coast with almost no planes crossing their airspace? I see one KHI-Beijing taking a round about route along their west coast and another one from PEK to Dubai crossing the airspace in the north. What are they worried about?

[Mort Walker]

It may very well be the airlines themselves who don't want to be hit by a trigger happy Paki thug operating a SAM battery.

[SaiK]

Bombs used in air strikes had Jaish coordinates fed in, little chance of their missing targets

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 238146.cms

NEW DELHI: The computer memories of Spice-2000 precision guided bombs were fed with satellite images and exact geographical coordinates of the major Jaish-e-Mohammed training camp at Balakot in Pakistan before being loaded on IAF Mirage-2000 fighters at Gwalior for the February 26 pre-dawn strikes.

So, when the “clear to launch weapons” signals popped up on the computers of the Mirage-2000 fighters, which were then — depending on their altitude and angle of attack — around 2 km to 10 km across the Line of Control into Pakistan-Occupied-Kashmir, there was little chance of the 1,000-kg bombs missing their targets.

“With their navigation\seeker systems, the fire-and-forget Spice-2000 bombs homed into the four to six targets selected within the JeM facility around 50 to 60 km away. The error margin was less than 3 metres,” said a top defence source on Saturday. The “before and after” images captured by the high-resolution synthetic aperture radars (SARs) mounted on “classified platforms” as well as Sukhoi-30MKI fighters, which were part of the “strike package”, show the designated targets were hit with precision, as reported by TOI on Saturday.

strike info

Though an accurate assessment of casualties on the ground is virtually impossible, the Spice-2000 bombs armed with “digital scene-matching area correlators” penetrated the roofs of the pre-selected buildings in the terror facility, which would have “killed all the inmates in them with shock and blast waves”, said sources.

Interestingly, the IAF also deployed “a decoy package” of fighters ostensibly headed towards the JeM headquarters in Bahawalpur in the Punjab province to lure Pakistani combat air patrols away from the actual “strike package” that had the Balakot facility in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province in its cross-hairs in the wee hours of February 26. This was in addition to the Mirage-2000s and Sukhoi-30MKIs, IL-78 mid-air refuellers and AWACS (airborne warning and control system) aircraft being deployed from Gwalior, Agra and Bareilly, instead of forward airbases, which took a circuitous route to the Muzaffarabad sector along the LoC to retain the element of surprise for the strikes, as was earlier reported by TOI.


“The decoy package of Sukhoi-30MKIs, in turn, took off from our Punjab to fake a strike operation towards Bahawalpur. Pakistan was taken in by the decoy formation and vectored its fighters in the air towards it,” said another source.

“Consequently, there was no Pakistani fighter anywhere near the actual strike package … the closest one would have been well over 150 km away. This also nails Pakistan’s claim that IAF fighters hastily dropped their bombs without achieving anything, much like its other factually incorrect statements like it did not use F-16s in the air intrusion on February 27,” he added.


The IAF cross-border strike, and that too well inside Pakistan instead of restricting it to POK, has redrawn India’s self-imposed red-lines, which earlier held that any use of airpower would be a sharply escalatory step in the complicated dynamics between the two nuclear-armed neighbours. “If the IAF had been told not to cross the LoC, like it was directed during the 1999 Kargil conflict, the weapons package to be used would have been quite different,” said the source.

[sudeepj]

The Pulwama thread is very educative when read in hindsight. I had made a few drab remarks then:

War is unpredictable, but public humiliation of Paki military will have very pleasing domino effects.

A week earlier if someone had said that IAF should bomb a few terrorist camps and then sit back and repel counter attacks, that prescription would have been dismissed as being wimpy. Less than a bum tickle if I may borrow a phrase.

Yet this is all it took to ruin the reputation of Pakistan’s MOST revered institution - PAF. Understand this - Pakis fear their Army, but they worship PAF because of the mythology built up around it. All it took to destroy decades of carefully nurtured fantasy was one lion hearted pilot flying a lovingly maintained museum piece.

I am not sure that has happened yet YIP, as Pakistanis are adept at lying to themselves and the PAF is also adept at lying to everyone and I wish NaMo had allowed a proper retaliation to happen, war or no war. An AFB wrecked in a retaliatory strike would have been proper humiliation, the kind that couldn't be hidden. Burning airframes, smoke etc.

I remain hopeful. The "pilot project" quip and then the meeting with Nirmala M'am and Jaitley.

Pakis will give us another chance if this round is over sooner rather than later. The triple attacks on in India, Iran and Afghanistan have a strategic calculus applied behind them. The logic of that calculus will not change merely because of one IAF strike. And if the Saudis can send AMRAAMs and oil, they can keep up the CAPs for a long time.

Im the dim's demeanor, claiming that 'things would not be in my control' is negotiation 101. The lack of immediate condemnation of the Pulwama and the Iran attacks, all suggests that the wannabe pathan is trying to pull a fast one. He was intimately involved in the attacks and may even have been the motivator.

These idiots will come back for a round II either in the next week or mid way through the election cycle.

The logic behind an immediate counter attack is that it will demonstrate that while India can pull off targeted surgical strikes that are short of a full war, they are ineffectual in achieving the goal of stopping jihadis or reducing the hold of the Paki elite on their society. There will be non stop coverage of how the strikes failed to deter jihadis from the usual suspects and how India lost, thereby attempting to effect the 2019 elections.

The logic behind an attack half way through the election cycle is the same, with the proviso that Indian political parties will be even more divided. I wont be surprised if a Mamta or a Kejru directly blames Modi for those attacks, and thereby Pak will achieve some kind of strategic communication goals.

If things go the Pakis way, the 2019 govt. will be weaker, Indian society more divided and the potency of the Indian Air Force will be reduced a bit in the minds of the populace and the politicians.

My personal opinion is that India should exact a price for the act of war that the Nowshera/Rajouri attack by the PAF was and shooting down one plane is not enough. We should have reduced the PAF by at least one squadron.

[vijayk]

why did we not use surface to air missiles to attack intruding aircraft? just trying to understand

[SaiK]

Abhinandan’s last radio message said he had locked on to Pak F-16
TNN | Mar 3, 2019, 01.14 AM IST
NEW DELHI: “R-73 selected,” was the last radio transmission of Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman from his MiG-21 “Bison” fighter jet. He then let loose the Vympel R-73 air-to-air missile at the Pakistani F-16 fighter in his cross-hairs before he himself was shot down.

The high-altitude dogfight between supersonic Indian and Pakistani fighters, after the latter breached Indian airspace west of Rajouri in Sunderbani area just after 10 am on February 27, transfixed the nation after Varthaman ended up in Pakistan’s custody after parachuting down in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir.

A day after the IAF air strikes at the Balakot terror facility in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa region, Pakistan sought to retaliate by deploying F-16s, JF-17s and Mirage-5 attack jets in “a large strike package” to target Indian military installations across the LoC, ranging from the brigade headquarters at Bhimber Gali to an ammunition dump at Narian.

Varthaman was among the six MiG-21 pilots who scrambled from Srinagar, apart from Sukhoi-30MKIs, Mirage-2000s and MiG-29s being deployed from other airbases, to intercept the Pakistani fighters. “We knew they would react after our Balakot strikes, but did not expect them to retaliate so soon,” said an officer.

The rival fighters were soon chasing each other in the ensuing dogfight, with the entire air battle lasting for around 15 minutes from beginning to finish. Varthaman in his MiG-21, which has a design vintage of the 1960s, managed to “lock on” to a much more modern Pakistani F-16. At such close-quarters, the short-ranger R-73 missile is preferred over the longer range RVV-AE medium-range air-to-air missiles also carried by MiG-21s.


“The R-73 is better in such a melee. This is probably the first time a Russian-origin MiG-21 has shot down an American F-16 anywhere in the world,” said another officer. Pakistan, of course, went blue in the face to deny it had deployed F-16s in the air intrusion, leave alone having lost one of the planes.

But IAF radars picked up “electronic signatures” of the F-16s. To clinch the case, Indian forces later recovered parts of an AIM-120C advanced medium-range air-to-air missile (AMRAAM), which is only carried by F-16s in Pakistan’s combat fleet, from east of Rajouri in J&K.


“IAF fighters managed to thwart the attempt by Pakistani fighters to target Indian military installations through laser-guided bombs. The bombs fell in compounds of Indian Army formations, without causing any significant damage, due to IAF’s swift response,” said another officer.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 238027.cms

[sudeepj]

why did we not use surface to air missiles to attack intruding aircraft? just trying to understand

The SAMs that we do have are point defense and deployed around air fields and such high value targets. Area air defense is provided by fighter CAPs.

[SaiK]

Indian jets hit school of jihad, says Azhar’s brother in audio
TNN | Mar 3, 2019, 02.20 AM IST

NEW DELHI: Countering denials of the Pakistan government and military, Maulana Ammar, the younger brother of Jaish-e-Muhammed leader Masood Azhar, has in an audio confirmed that Indian fighter jets hit the JeM camp near Balakot in Khyber Pakhtunwa province of Pakistan.

In a recording available on social media, the voice identified as Maulana Ammar decries the bombing of the “markaz” (a centre of religious learning) and expresses anguish over India striking a centre where jihad was being taught rather than the headquarters of an official agency.

“Today the enemy has answered all questions itself when the enemy crossed the mountains and entered our land and launched attacks on our Islamic centre,” Maulana Ammar said, adding “This is declaration of war by the enemy.” The speech is understood to have been delivered a day after the air strikes at a gathering of clerics at Peshawar.


“The Indian aircraft did not attack any safe house of any agency. It did not bomb the headquarters of any agency. They bombed a centre where students were learning jihad for the assistance of Muslims of Kashmir,” he said. He is heard saying that the students were learning all about making the distress of Kashmir their own. “This is not a jihad of any agency, by coming out of its territory to attack us, India has ensured we start our jihad against it,” he said.

The Pakistan establishment and sections of western media have raised doubts over whether the bombs did strike the target but the recording seems to suggest that Jaish leadership does acknowledge the hit.


Other reports have also appeared stating that there was a sizeable toll at the Jaish complex at a hill feature called “Jaba top” that was hit by smart bombs released by IAF fighters. A report in FirstPost said locals confirmed that ambulances carried away some 30-odd bodies. A former ISI officer “Col Salim” is learnt to have died in the attack .


https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 238334.cms

[UlanBatori]

[qote]Small problem, Guptaji. Pls kindly check weather in that area. I seem to remember that there is/was heavy snow (feet) in whole POK/Khyber etc areas. [/quote]
OK, maybe wrong on that, but anyone posting pics pls note that it at least WET out there. Apparently roofs are caving in w/o help from IAF.

The severe rains also resulted in landslides in Malakand, Hazara, Gilgit-Baltistan and Kashmir. Several inches of snow has been recorded in Murree, Galyat, and Shagar, leaving many local people stranded in the region.

Pooch to adminullahs: If I quote my own post will my Citation Index go up?

[Karan M]

https://twitter.com/javerias/status/1101788464897581056

Two Pakistan Army soldiers embraced shahdat at Nakiyal Sector in exchange of fire while targeting Indian posts undertaking firing on civilian population. Shaheed Havaldar AbdurRab and Shaheed Naik Khurram both belongs from DG Khan.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D0pWw48XgAAF8Zf.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D0pWxKZX4AAoAEX.jpg

[SaiK]

^UB ji, 99% chance ied-strapped on mullahs [allegedly having renal failures by paki gov] were inside early in the morning, not outing for pishaap or hard sentry duty.

[Guddu]

Can anyone pl. post the co-ordinates of the Balakot JEM site, please

[IndraD]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... IIndiaNews

Abhinandan release was due to pressure from US & Saudi, coupled with India's resolve that conflict will be escalated severely
Delay in his release was to make sure there are no protests in the way from Lahore to Wagah

[shyamd]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... IIndiaNews

Abhinandan release was due to pressure from US & Saudi, coupled with India's resolve that conflict will be escalated severely
Delay in his release was to make sure there are no protests in the way from Lahore to Wagah

Note how they say GoI has "direct channel". I think it's Nasser Janjua.

[UlanBatori]

voice identified as Maulana Ammar

Dang! I thought that was in Houristan as part of the raid. But this confirms the target description initially given by yindoos: terrorists pulled from LOC staging / launch centers after Pulwama to Resort. And UBCN WAG analysis of who else would have been there.
I mourn for the goats probably killed as Collateral Damage. So many gentle, abused creatures, I guess they welcomed the release from torture.

[Sumeet]

Guys please watch Modi ji's *entire* speech in India Today conclave. Lots of great points. Look at people's reactions to various parts of his speech and you will be relieved of the tension/high BP caused by seeing absolutely low behavior from certain folks on SM.

[John]

Pakistan refusing to acknowledge the strikes means it cannot be used to fan the flames and used as recruiting means like we had witness with US drone strikes. Azhar brother sermon reveals former is likely dead or ser inj in the strikes and Pakistan is using dialysis as a cover. Won’t be surprised if ISI intel of strikes in LOC lead them to pull all their forces to this location.

The fact that complex was built around 2014 indicates that western intel was not fully aware of it and likely was further expanded last year or so ( unless we get 2019 sat image we won’t know). Pakistan spent large amount of $$$ building this up compared to camps in Afghanistan that were struck in infinite reach these are far bigger structures.

[IndraD]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/0 ... brink/When Wing Commander Abhinandan Vartaman of the Indian Air Force (IAF) spotted the enemy plane on his radar 7,000 feet below him he had little hesitation.

Inside the aerial dogfight that took nuclear-armed Pakistan and India to brink of war
Posting in full as this news portal is paid one

Locking onto the Pakistani F-16 jet launching a provocative cross-border missile raid over Kashmir he told his patrol partners: “I am going after him.”

The dogfight that followed ended with Vartaman’s MiG-21 fighter being shot down and the Indian airman captured by the Pakistanis.

What happened brought the region’s two nuclear powers to the brink of conflict and sent shock waves across the region. It was the first time the nations had engaged in aerial combat since war in 1971 and the world held its breath.

Now the story of the dogfight in the skies over Kashmir can be revealed in detail for the first time by The Telegraph.


The skirmish began at 9.45am on Wednesday under overcast skies above the foothills of the Himalayas when an Indian ground radar detected an unusual formation.

Radar screens showed 24 Pakistani fighters and support aircraft flying provocatively close to the Line of Control that divides India and Pakistan.

Over the 86 long seconds that followed Vartaman and his adversaries danced and weaved in the skies as missiles whistled through the air, shattering the serenity of the Kashmir highlands.

Pakistan's fighter group, first spotted six miles from the border, included eight advanced F-16, four French Dassault Mirage-III and four Chinese-origin JF-17 Thunder fighters and at least one Saab 2000 Erieye and early warning and control platform, to monitor the aerial battle-space.

India's response was swift, scrambling an Indian Air Force (IAF) combat air patrol comprising two Russian Sukhoi Su-30 multi-role fighters, two upgraded Mirage-2000H’s and four licence-built and upgraded Soviet-era MiG-21 Bison aircraft.

Indian military sources said the IAF joined the battle after three Pakistan Air Force (PAF) F-16’s crossed over the border and discharged laser-guided missiles at the Nowshera munitions depot, five miles inside Indian territory, but missed their target.

Vartaman's objective was to position himself at an angle of 60 degrees in relation to the F-16 in his sights, an ‘angle of attack’ that would enable him to execute a ‘maximum impact’ missile strike, the sources said.

In the meantime, the F-16 went into a steep ascent, climbing to around 26,000 feet before hurtling back down in a move to shake off his pursuer.


Flying at a speeds of over 560mph, the PAF pilot repeated this manoeuvre, by which time Varthaman had managed to adroitly position his MiG-21 behind the F-16, sources revealed.

Having secured a hugely advantageous position, the IAF pilot successfully fired his Russian short-range Vympel R-73 air-to-air missile at the F-16, scoring a hit.

But within moments Varthaman’s fighter was incapacitated by one or possibly even two all-weather air-to-air missiles, forcing him to eject and parachute down.

It was Vartaman’s misfortune to land on the wrong side of the line of control, in Pakistan-administered Kashmir. Panicked, he asked the villagers who had surrounded him whether he was in India.

The youngsters responded by shouting Long Live Pakistan, prompting Varthaman to pull out his service revolver and fire in the air to scare them away.

When the villagers then began pelting him with stones Varthaman ran, firing more shots in the air. The crowd gave chase until their victim stumbled into a nearby shallow stream.

The Indian pilot was shot in the leg and handed over to Pakistani authorities.

Over the next two days his mustached face would be front and centre of an information war that threatened to spill over into something much worse.

Pakistan and India have been to war four times since independence in 1947 and frequently exchange artillery, mortar and small arms fire across their unresolved frontier.

The aerial combat was the first ever between two nuclear-armed states and the first between the two air forces in 48 years, after their third major war in 1971.

The latest rise in tension that led to the clashes in the sky started with a suicide bomb attack by Pakistan-based jihadists that killed 40 Indian troops last month. India retaliated with missile strikes at a militant base on the Pakistan side.


Blood boiled between India's Hindu nationalist prime minster Narendra Modi and Imran Khan, the former Pakistan cricket captain who now rules Pakistan. Both egged each other on, promising further retaliations.

Pakistan's strike on the arms depot on Wednesday seemed to have tipped the conflict over the edge, with the dogfight and pilot capture expected to bring more retributions.

But both leaders appeared to see sense, winding down tensions.

Following two nights for Varthaman in Pakistani captivity Mr Khan offered a 'peace gesture’ and the pilot returned to India to a hero's welcome on Friday. By Saturday morning 300,000 Pakistanis had signed a petition calling for Mr Khan to be rewarded with a Nobel Peace Prize.

However, as the dust has settled the identity of the PAF pilot and the fate of his F-16 remains shrouded in mystery, even though the IAF claims to have ‘conclusive evidence’ of its downing.

India exhibited pieces of the downed PAF fighter that they say had fallen into Indian territory, but Islamabad has yet to own up to its loss.

Pakistan is desperate to deny that its US-supplied F-16 was shot down, as the fighters are prohibited under an agreement with Washington from being used offensively against any country.

The encounter in the skies will long be analysed by military aviation experts. “The IAF gave an excellent account of itself in this encounter as a legacy aircraft like the MiG-21 from the '60s downed the more sophisticated F-16 that has a far better engine, avionics, radar and weaponry” said former Air Marshal V K Bhatia.

[Vivasvat]

[url]https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/0 ... dia-brink/[/url ]

The comments there are mostly from naPaks trying to discredit the author or denying what happened.

[John]

I measured the building three attached buildings look to be around ~20k sq footage each ( assuming 3 stories it’s hard to say). The larger one looks to be around 40k sq footage. These are quiet big commercial sized buildings.

[UlanBatori]

I don't understand this whole "Paki F-16s are not supposed to be used against any other country" lie. They are intended to carry nuclear weapons, and are routinely stationed at Skardu among other places. What the hell else for? To nuke Gujranwala?
The American government does not know this? Like the Girl who thought Fu*king was a town in China?
Indian patience needs to be brought to an end.
The American Paki-Terrorist enterprise needs to be called out as the goddamned greedy diabolical liars that they are. The nukes will ultimately blow up in American cities otherwise, sooner or later. Karma is inexorable.

[sanjaykumar]

A perusal of the papers from Pakistan reveals only one article that mentions the firefight of last night

https://dailytimes.com.pk/360755/india- ... -martyred/

It makes no reference to the casualties in tweets from the region, the blood shortages and the panic. The Pak military cannot control the flow of information with SM, but I think their population does not want to know the truth.


Some may want to trawl and save those tweets for later discussion with Pakistanis. I personally have little interest in engaging them.

[khan]

The dastardly and unprovoked Pakistani aggression on Indian soil with that failed attack has not been responded to. I hope Prime Minsiter Modi does not forget this.

[sudeepj]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Balakot_airstrike

Lat Long of the strike appears to be:
34.463333, 73.318889

[hanumadu]

Can anyone pl. post the co-ordinates of the Balakot JEM site, please

No body knows for sure, where the JEM site is, only guesses based on imagery from google maps/earth. Watch the below video for coordinates. They appear at the bottom as the focus shifts to the location.

[souravB]

^^ aggression alright, but deterred nonetheless. Let's look at some points what their aggression can/have achieved.

1. They lost a fighter which was supposed to be their top dog till 2035 and two pilots, and we lost one a/c which we were going to replace in a year or two anyway.
2. we get an (slight)upperhand in arms deal negotiation with unkil going forward, with the underhanded F16 deal.
3. Bakis have to find new ways to nurture mujahids 'safely', since we are now hitting camps inside pakiland.
4. Services can push for new systems with lesser pushback from left. Going forward I see more weapon carrying drones and ELINT systems.

[hanumadu]

What is the status of our MRSAMs? The navy bought some. How about the air force and army? Before we get S-400, MRSAMs will be useful to deal with the paki incursions like these ones.

[saip]

FInally one Ukrainian Airlines plane is crossing the Paki Airspace en route to Delhi.

[souravB]

What is the status of our MRSAMs? The navy bought some. How about the air force and army? Before we get S-400, MRSAMs will be useful to deal with the paki incursions like these ones.

Army already ordered 5 regiments, delivery starting from 2020 and IAF will continue to use Akash as MRSAM till S400 arrives.

[Karan M]

Yes, but it is unlikely the Su-30s or Herons with their SAR package went to Balakot during or after the strike for confirmation.

The IAF had a Heron already providing support for the Balakot ops. And that given the right height & LOS (no hills in between etc), the Herons, Sukhois & R&AW birds can see deep into Opfor territory. For the highest resolution SAR imagery from right on top, sats are preferable, but in a pinch (without waiting for the sat to come over/be repositioned) the above are available far easier & quicker.

[souravB]

Su Swamy Twitter

In the current political circumstances I cannot leave Delhi for a week

what can we make of this? gov is thinking of taking some big step? It's not over till it's over.

[CRamS]

Guys please watch Modi ji's *entire* speech in India Today conclave. Lots of great points. Look at people's reactions to various parts of his speech and you will be relieved of the tension/high BP caused by seeing absolutely low behavior from certain folks on SM.

Don't mean to exaggerate or be emotional, but I must have done some good Karma in my past life to even witness that India would have such a giant leader.

[Karan M]

What is the status of our MRSAMs? The navy bought some. How about the air force and army? Before we get S-400, MRSAMs will be useful to deal with the paki incursions like these ones.

Verge of deployment.. IAF wants further modifications so that its easier and faster to deploy etc.
But system works.

[khan]

^^ aggression alright, but deterred nonetheless. Let's look at some points what their aggression can/have achieved.

1. They lost a fighter which was supposed to be their top dog till 2035 and two pilots, and we lost one a/c which we were going to replace in a year or two anyway.
2. we get an (slight)upperhand in arms deal negotiation with unkil going forward, with the underhanded F16 deal.
3. Bakis have to find new ways to nurture mujahids 'safely', since we are now hitting camps inside pakiland.
4. Services can push for new systems with lesser pushback from left. Going forward I see more weapon carrying drones and ELINT systems.

Yes, we can have fine intellectual discussions about things that will change - and many things will change now for the better - but you are missing the point.

While training and equipment surely played a role in driving off the Baki’s - this time - luck also had a huge part in it. Driving them off doesn’t change the fact they will learn their lessons and be back, more dangerous than last time - and the luck might not be as good next time, so they might actually cause some damage next time.

Driving off intruders and waiting for them to come back isn’t good policy.

They need a response to be deterred from ever trying this again. If they lost 1 F-16 squadron, 1 Mirage 3 squadron, 1 Mirage 5 squadron, 1 JF-17 Thunder squadron, one Ammo dump and one brigade headquarters (dump & brigade HQ were their intended targets) - that will make sure the next time the IAF kicks them, they will go whimpering away like good stray dogs.

I hope Prime Minister Modi understands this. It is very dangerous to let Pakis climb the esclatkry ladder like this and not match their escalation.

Leaving things like this is an invitation for them to come back the next time India takes out a terrorist target in Pakistan - and next time India might not be as lucky.

The current situation is completely unacceptable - intellectual “feel good” rationalizations aside.

[Atmavik]

sorry to bring politics into this thread but looks like D'Imaran khan Niazi's goose is cooked. wait for the calls of Yahoodi Aagent soon.

[saip]

OK. Everything back to normal it seems. An Airindia plane from Tel Aviv to Delhi is over Karachi now.

[disha]

sorry to bring politics into this thread but looks like D'Imaran khan Niazi's goose is cooked. wait for the calls of Yahoodi Aagent soon.

Totally. Bakistani Army is only waiting to figure out who will be the next chicken.

In the meantime, looks like the airspace around Bakistan is closed until Monday. In effect, India created a no-fly zone over Bakistan for 6 days.

Bakistanis should go back to normalcy before the next hammer comes. But for now, the current round is over.

Do not assume that hammer is *not* going to come

----

As I see it, here is where we stand now given the background:

1. Jihadis needed to do something big. The jihadi project in cashmere is down to its last legs and losing in war of attrition.

2. No "spectacular" attack has been done in a while. A big "win" was necessary. Planning for targeting the convoy in Pulwama must have been in works for a while. They needed to smuggle in RDX in smaller amounts and assemble it. The entire planning and targeting must have taken months.

3. 26/11 was a water shed. It was to also test the red lines of India and the world. Post 26/11, nothing happened to the master minds of the terrorist attack. Hafeez Suar is still roaming scott free. World did some hoo-ha and went back to its business.

Bakis felt secure about their nuclear blackmail. It had succeeded.

4. Uri was a localized strike. With a surgical strike back from India, they were cornered. Since now targeted strikes (which carry much risk) will invite targeted strike back and they will again lose the war via attrition.

5. Bakistani economy is sinking and hence the funds for the Jehadi project also shrinks and for all the resources they suck in, they have nothing to show. Absolutely nothing.

6. US vacating Upaghanistan and Robin Raphael sent as negotiator made the ISI jump with glee. They thought that they have won the war and now can up the ante on Cashmere.

Pulwama happened. BRF as much predicted that a major attack is forthcoming and one (I forget the name) even predicted IEDs.

GOI retaliated, they went in and did a chaddi-utaro (shorts pulldown) of Bakistan and bombed JEM to smithereens.

They did not think GOI could do this. They did not realize that their PAF was totally rotten to the core that they could not even guard their skies and intercept.

Then they retaliated. They sent in the biggest strike package they could muster and in the process lost their F-16. On top of it, they had to release the WingCo who lorded over them. In 2 days.

And they are completely isolated diplomatically. Bakistan is the founding member of OIC and they boycotted it and their boycott was welcomed., India's MEA Shrimati Sushma Swaraj is an eminent invited guest at Organization of Islamic Countries and delivers a keynote with quotes from Rigveda and talks about religious harmony and everybody agrees that terrorism is scourge of humanity

They might have as well lost their nukular marbles to S. Barbaria.

This does not end. Bakis have to shutdown their airspace for 6 days. "Modi ayenga" (Modi will come) keeps them awake entire night.

In a nutshell, India has called out Bakistan's nuclear bluff. India can carry out Non-Military Pre-emptive Strike anywhere in Bakistan and at anytime

Cost of the Jihad project in Bakistan has now gone up exponentially. If they do any major attack, they must be prepared for a strike on their nation anywhere from land, air and sea (or all three) and they will have to shut their nation down for days.

Even if India thinks that they are planning something and carries out a strike on bakistan, bakis have to cower down and slink into a corner shivering in their salwars.

They cannot rebuild their military without rebuilding their economy. The cost to rebuild their economy is tremendous. Nobody wants to invest in a country where their investment goes poof just because a Jihadi gets religion and blows himself (or herself) up.

Their Jihad patron S. Barbaria is going through a generation change. They are trying to get off the Jehad bandwagon. It is not helping them.

In a space of four years, S. Barbaria has lost 10% of its peak GDP. In that same interval, India added @7x the loss of S. Barbaria's GDP. And of course S. Barbaria's GDP is based mostly on oil exports which most likely will vanish away by 2040 (just 21 years from now).

In nutshell, S. Barbaria cannot continue funding the Jihad project. It was the Jihad + Oil with ample help from former UK and later US which got the Saudis and keeping them in power. Jihad is inviting them trouble and to stay in power then need to start earning from their investments. India is their investment target. UAE is planning to invest $75 B in India. $100 B from Saudi Barbaria. By the decade is out, ME will be planning to invest some $ 200 B in India.

One cannot continue to fund Jehad against a nation in which you are investing.

The biggest benefactor of Bakistan, S. Barbaria is looking due east and towards India. Former-UK has to worry about its own economy, leave alone Brexit. France has thrown its lot behind India. Germany has to sort out its political mess and anyway it is the largest trading partner in the block. They are worried about crossfire between US-China.

China is losing its political dog in N. Korea and has no further appetite to take on US in other spheres. It needs to sort out its economic relations with US and also ensure that South China sea does not become Vietnam or Malay or Indonesia or Philippine sea. It has the least appetite of all to have its rogue dog in Bakistan running around biting others. And of course it does not want its investments in Bakistan go down the drain just because a Jihadi got religion. At best, they will turn a benign eye to Baki shenanigans but will not come swinging for Bakistan.

In nutshell, in past 5 days, the entire strategic scenario has changed in Middle East, South and South East Asia. A new power has emerged and Bakistan has to learn to deal with it. It needs to either shutdown its Jihad factory or shut itself down. There is no two ways about it.

Welcome to the regional super power.

PS: Apologies to bring economics on this thread. But it needs to be understood. Bakistan is being choked economically, diplomatically and militarily.

[Atmavik]

OK. Everything back to normal it seems. An Airindia plane from Tel Aviv to Delhi is over Karachi now.

proof of yahood-e-hanood sasish. Hakim shared this interesting article on teeter. does anyone know why he left ?

https://www.opindia.com/2019/03/pakista ... ergy-fuel/