Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 03 Mar 2019 23:36

how the spice works and programmed

those being normal houses not concrete bunkers even the smallest 110kg sized spiced weapons would shred them not blow a hole in roof.

khan · Post by **khan** » 03 Mar 2019 23:40

Kakarat wrote:
khan wrote:Vishnu Som has an article about how the Spice bombs work (holes in roof, no building collapse). He says GOI will be releasing images soon.

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/what-ha ... se-2002060
I dont know from where these people get ideas like only a hole on the roof and no collapse, the target in Rajasthan looks like a concrete bunker and could have been a inert warhead for testing the accuracy. If you dont want an explosion then why a 1000kg bomb? even a 250kg warhead will blow these tin sheet roofed structured

Actually, I can believe this. For a weapon that designed to kill via shrapnel (metal fragments - the ball bearing & nails equivalent in terrorist bombs), any energy that goes into the shockwave is a waste of energy. You want all the energy to go into moving the shrapnel with as much energy as possible - and not be wasted in a shock-wave, which has no effect. Just imagine all the tungsten fragments a 1000 kg bomb can spray around.

I think when GOI gets around to releasing the information, it will clear a lot of air - but it could be a while, I am sure they have their hands full now.

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 03 Mar 2019 23:43

Kakarat wrote:
khan wrote:Vishnu Som has an article about how the Spice bombs work (holes in roof, no building collapse). He says GOI will be releasing images soon.

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/what-ha ... se-2002060
I dont know from where these people get ideas like only a hole on the roof and no collapse, the target in Rajasthan looks like a concrete bunker and could have been a inert warhead for testing the accuracy. If you dont want an explosion then why a 1000kg bomb? even a 250kg warhead will blow these tin sheet roofed structured

Bomb craters are actually highly dependent on several variables other than explosive payload. It also dependends on bomb design for penetration, have a look at figure 4.

From http://wwww.pillbox.org.uk/blog/216701/

khan · Post by **khan** » 03 Mar 2019 23:45

Singha wrote:how the spice works and programmed

those being normal houses not concrete bunkers even the smallest 110kg sized spiced weapons would shred them not blow a hole in roof.

I think there is conflation between the SPICE guidance system and the warhead used. The damage seen will be dictated more by the warhead type than the guidance system.

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 03 Mar 2019 23:45

Further it may not be just fragmentation effects of the bomb that kill, acceleration forces and effects on tissue, sound frequencies, vibration, heat, oxygen consumption and thus asphyxiation, toxic releases are some of the parameters I can think of immediately.

nam · Post by **nam** » 03 Mar 2019 23:48

So Spice has video feed. Instead of satellite image, video of one of the spice hitting the target should be enough to shut up the mouth.

Having said that, GoI might be reluctant to share info, if there were other "undeclared" targets. There were news report of strike on Muzafarabad, however no info on what was hit.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 03 Mar 2019 23:51

Amoghvarsha wrote:The Pakistani fighter planes are heading towards the border with the #Inde. We can expect new shots, more violent clashes that night. Thousands of civilians continue to flee. #Pakistan

https://twitter.com/ConflitsFR/status/1 ... 25056?s=19

are we ready?

Raveen · Post by **Raveen** » 03 Mar 2019 23:55

vijayk wrote:
Amoghvarsha wrote:The Pakistani fighter planes are heading towards the border with the #Inde. We can expect new shots, more violent clashes that night. Thousands of civilians continue to flee. #Pakistan

https://twitter.com/ConflitsFR/status/1 ... 25056?s=19
are we ready?

Always

Iyersan · Post by **Iyersan** » 04 Mar 2019 00:02

vijayk wrote:
Amoghvarsha wrote:The Pakistani fighter planes are heading towards the border with the #Inde. We can expect new shots, more violent clashes that night. Thousands of civilians continue to flee. #Pakistan

https://twitter.com/ConflitsFR/status/1 ... 25056?s=19
are we ready?

ConflitsFr is the Baki French ISI version.
Reliable intel suggests that at 10:45 PM indian radar picked up paki CAP along LoC

ChanakyaM · Post by **ChanakyaM** » 04 Mar 2019 00:02

A_Gupta wrote:One further might be concerned about there being an asterisk on the record of Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman, because the F-16 shoot-down apparently cannot be confirmed from currently publicly available information.

Not to worry, earlier in this thread it has been established that the US takes periodic inventory of Pakistan's F-16s. Then, sooner or later, this will be obtainable by a Freedom of Information Act request in the US. So the inevitability of getting at the facts is established, it is not like "we will never know". So it is a matter of patience, at worst. And there other more plausible avenues for the facts to be established, I think.

May be we will see a Baki press release in couple of weeks where they will report an F-16 crash somewhere during routine training exercise to cover their backs

khan · Post by **khan** » 04 Mar 2019 00:04

Samjauta Express has 12 Baki’s on it and it looks like one of them is carrying a massive bag of wheat. Things must be pretty bad there sheesh:

https://twitter.com/ani/status/1102271755253702658?s=21

They should send them back in a minivan, why run a whole train for these jokers.

Here is the official story: Only 12 passengers book tickets on first Samjhauta Express post air strike

SidSoma · Post by **SidSoma** » 04 Mar 2019 00:05

Our ground AWACS did warn us

ranneel · Post by **ranneel** » 04 Mar 2019 00:11

khan wrote: https://twitter.com/ani/status/1102271755253702658?s=21

Spot the RAW agent in the last pic please.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 04 Mar 2019 00:12

Bakis have started a new propaganda based on the following tweet ...

https://twitter.com/JmuKmrPolice/status ... 2251068416

J&K Police Verified account @JmuKmrPolice

DGP J&K Sh Dilbag Singh rewards police party; EX VDC member, civilians for Recovery of AMRAAM remnants in Reasi.

Many version that try to use this data for spin and the below is just an example

Victor @antisocialvictr
Replying to @JmuKmrPolice

So who came inside 80kms??PAF came 80 km Inside IOK..Welldone PAF.

This place Reasi about 80 km from the probable dog fight site in POK. Can this be explained logically? YES

1. Remember, the bakis initially *claimed* to have shot down TWO Indian fighters. This is more important than people realize.
2. AIM-120C-5 has a range in excess of 105 KM (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AIM-120_AMRAAM)

But now we know that only ONE fighter was brought down. I now think, one reason why ISPR initially claimed TWO kills is because TWO AIM-120C-5 where fired. One that took down the Wg Cmd Abhi's Mig 21 and the other that missed his wingman.

What happened to the missile that missed the wingman? Well it *looks* like it flew till it flew and crashed about 80 km from the dog fight site well within its range of about 105 km. Now this 80 travel too is approx based on a certain starting and end points but the actual end pints might be slightly different and would also depend on the energy it wasted in its initial targeting maneuvers, etc.

Everything makes sense now.

jamwal · Post by **jamwal** » 04 Mar 2019 00:14

Whats is ground AWACS ? Isn't A for Airborne ?

Kakarat · Post by **Kakarat** » 04 Mar 2019 00:17

khan wrote:
Kakarat wrote: I dont know from where these people get ideas like only a hole on the roof and no collapse, the target in Rajasthan looks like a concrete bunker and could have been a inert warhead for testing the accuracy. If you dont want an explosion then why a 1000kg bomb? even a 250kg warhead will blow these tin sheet roofed structured
Actually, I can believe this. For a weapon that designed to kill via shrapnel (metal fragments - the ball bearing & nails equivalent in terrorist bombs), any energy that goes into the shockwave is a waste of energy. You want all the energy to go into moving the shrapnel with as much energy as possible - and not be wasted in a shock-wave, which has no effect. Just imagine all the tungsten fragments a 1000 kg bomb can spray around.

I think when GOI gets around to releasing the information, it will clear a lot of air - but it could be a while, I am sure they have their hands full now.

Its a 1000kg bomb even if we consider that its a fragmentation bomb it will have at least 250kg warhead and for the type of structures we see in GE is enough to blow it into pieces and if it is going to be penetrating type then there is no point of using a fragmentation bomb. And I dont think any country has a 1000kg fragmentation bomb & to my knowledge the heaviest aerial bomb manufactured by India is only 500kg.

sanjaykumar wrote:
Kakarat wrote:
Bomb craters are actually highly dependent on several variables other than explosive payload. It also dependends on bomb design for penetration, have a look at figure 4.

http://wwww.pillbox.org.uk/images/blog/ ... _notes.jpg

From http://wwww.pillbox.org.uk/blog/216701/

What is the point of using a penetrating bomb to kill terrorists in a shed? we are not bursting bunkers here
Even if like you say no 4 had happened then any type of building above that point will crumble

sudhan · Post by **sudhan** » 04 Mar 2019 00:21

jamwal wrote:Whats is ground AWACS ? Isn't A for Airborne ?

A BRF speciality.. not to be confused with the flying chapati.. read a few past pages

SidSoma · Post by **SidSoma** » 04 Mar 2019 00:30

jamwal wrote:Whats is ground AWACS ? Isn't A for Airborne ?

One of our BRFites claims to be our ground AWACS. He had reported fighter activity up north. In his words "whole north india could hear it"

Manjgu, first AWACS with strong SONAR capabilities

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 04 Mar 2019 00:30

sanjaykumar wrote: Bomb craters are actually highly dependent on several variables other than explosive payload. It also dependends on bomb design for penetration, have a look at figure 4.

http://wwww.pillbox.org.uk/images/blog/ ... _notes.jpg

From http://wwww.pillbox.org.uk/blog/216701/

Kakarat wrote:

What is the point of using a penetrating bomb to kill terrorists in a shed? we are not bursting bunkers here
Even if like you say no 4 had happened then any type of building above that point will crumble[/quote]

The point is that there is domain expertise and knowledge to which one is not privy. In fact high magnitude earthquakes necessitated engineering of buildings in Japan with materials that deform, sure perhaps plastic deformation, but structures which did not collapse.These innovations date back several hundred years. I don't offer my opinions because I know enough to know that I do not have domain expertise in these areas.

Y I Patel · Post by **Y I Patel** » 04 Mar 2019 00:33

@manjgu generalized qualitative information like you have been posting (e.g "intense air activity on right now") is great to have in times of media blackout where it is not certain if things are winding down or are at the same intensity level. You are our trusted source but we only want you to be our trusted source not one for the whole internet

Kakarat · Post by **Kakarat** » 04 Mar 2019 00:45

sanjaykumar wrote:
The point is that there is domain expertise and knowledge to which one is not privy. In fact high magnitude earthquakes necessitated engineering of buildings in Japan with materials that deform, sure perhaps plastic deformation, but structures which did not collapse.These innovations date back several hundred years. I don't offer my opinions because I know enough to know that I do not have domain expertise in these areas.

The purpose of this airstrike is simple to kill the terrorists and not some science experiment, the simplest way is to blast them into pieces then why complicate

khan · Post by **khan** » 04 Mar 2019 01:10

Kakarat wrote:
sanjaykumar wrote:
The point is that there is domain expertise and knowledge to which one is not privy. In fact high magnitude earthquakes necessitated engineering of buildings in Japan with materials that deform, sure perhaps plastic deformation, but structures which did not collapse.These innovations date back several hundred years. I don't offer my opinions because I know enough to know that I do not have domain expertise in these areas.
The purpose of this airstrike is simple to kill the terrorists and not some science experiment, the simplest way is to blast them into pieces then why complicate

They would use the best war-head for the job. If they happen to have a warhead designed to kill people in tin-roof houses - they will use it, even if it has an "optics" issue of not blowing off the roof or collapsing buildings. Just be patient and wait for more information instead of speculating.

pralay · Post by **pralay** » 04 Mar 2019 01:14

Regarding ground penetrating warheads..
There is a good possibility that the sheds/structures had underground bunkers or some kind of underground facility
and it is also likely that we had strong intelligence about its internals, strong enough to risk sending 12 mirages.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 04 Mar 2019 01:14

jpremnath wrote:
chetak wrote:
Please end this futile discussion here.
Fair enough...

First post of this thread says no Rona Dhona .

Next such post gets a ban with no warning .

williams · Post by **williams** » 04 Mar 2019 01:16

Kakarat wrote:
sanjaykumar wrote:
The point is that there is domain expertise and knowledge to which one is not privy. In fact high magnitude earthquakes necessitated engineering of buildings in Japan with materials that deform, sure perhaps plastic deformation, but structures which did not collapse.These innovations date back several hundred years. I don't offer my opinions because I know enough to know that I do not have domain expertise in these areas.
The purpose of this airstrike is simple to kill the terrorists and not some science experiment, the simplest way is to blast them into pieces then why complicate

It also creates a substantial psychological effect on both the uninformed and non-uniformed Paki terrorists. Any time we will burst you with 1000 kg bombs and your airforce or army will not help except with some fake news in social media.

Bart S · Post by **Bart S** » 04 Mar 2019 01:18

pralay wrote:Regarding ground penetrating warheads..
There is a good possibility that the sheds/structures had underground bunkers or some kind of underground facility
and it is also likely that we had strong about its internals, strong enough to risk sending 12 mirages.

Yes, very much a possibility as there were reports of there being an ammunition dump (that was blown up during the strikes) within the complex. So it clearly wasn't some crude makeshift facility consisting of sheds with tin roofs etc. As this was practically a Paki military facility it was probably built to military standards.

SidSoma · Post by **SidSoma** » 04 Mar 2019 01:40

From:
https://www.news18.com/news/world/jaish ... 25863.html

Sources who have visited the place say that the seminary already includes kitchens, medical facilities and classrooms and a large underground facility, possibly for use as secure housing or indoor firing range.

There is a possibility of Balakot having such facility, which may have been the influential factor for the selection of Penetration bombs. Lets just hope that somewhere out there a few are being lined up for Bahawalpur.

khan · Post by **khan** » 04 Mar 2019 01:40

It is getting to be prime time for the IAF, the children are sleeping, the Bakis are crapping in their Shalwar’s

abhik · Post by **abhik** » 04 Mar 2019 02:19

So no more updates from on ground AWACS? Or is the next report expected at 3:30am onlee

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 04 Mar 2019 02:24

Note these two articles:

Nathan Ruser: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/were- ... -approval/

Shelley Kasli with a Bangalore byline: https://www.voltairenet.org/article204302.html

Either both have independent insights and draw the same diagrams even; or else one is using the other without attribution. Which is puzzling because e.g., Kasli has a list of other citations at the end (see below).

They even write identical sentences, e.g.,

By analysing areas of healthy vegetation from the imagery, I’ve been able to identify three clear impact areas between 150 and 200 metres from the edge of the facility. These correspond to photos shared by local journalists and confirm the location of strikes.

Kasli's citations:

[1] Refer to Great Game India wiki on Pulwama Attack.

[2] “Pak reacts to 12 Mirage 2000 jets destroying terror camps across LoC”, DNA

[3] “Balakot: Indian air strikes target militants in Pakistan”, BBC, February 26, 2019.

[4] “Surgical strike on Pakistan: Exact target of IAF operation identified as Jaba Top; air force carried out several hits around site”, First Post, February 26, 2019.

[5] “India used Israeli arms for strike inside Pakistan — report”, Judah Ari Gross, Times of Israel, February 26, 2019.

[6] “All about IAF’s SPICE-2000 bomb used in Balakot attack”, Shaurya Karanbir Gurung, Economic Times, February 27, 2019.

[7] “Indian Statement on the Strike on JeM training camp at Balakot”, by Sushma Swaraj, Voltaire Network, 26 February 2019.

[8] “At raid site, no casualties and a mysterious school”, Asad Hashim, Al-Jazeera, February 28, 2019.

[9] “This hill-top near Balakot is the possible location of the IAF’s strike on Jaish camp”, Colonel Vinayak Bhat, The Print, February 27, 2019.

Could "Nathan Ruser" and "Shelley Kasli" be one and the same person, so that the mistake of not creating a citation when citing oneself was made?

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 04 Mar 2019 02:28

Oh I get it now-ground AWACS with two side lobe antennae.

Rishirishi · Post by **Rishirishi** » 04 Mar 2019 02:45

Daily updated sat pic of Balakot (got the coordinates from Wikipedia, Balakot attacks.
https://zoom.earth/#34.46321,73.318545,19z,sat
This picture is supposed to be an updated one.

From google Earth
https://www.google.com/maps/place/34%C2 ... 73.3188889

The rooftop of one of the buildings seems to be lasted off.

abhishek_sharma · Post by **abhishek_sharma** » 04 Mar 2019 02:51

#PulwamaAttack: Before & After | Assessment Of Possible Route Maps for India | IT Conclave 2019

Shivshankar Menon - former National Security Advisor,
Shah Faesal - Former IAS Officer,
Lt Gen(R) Deependra Singh Hooda
Air Chief Marshal (R) Fali Homi Major

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 04 Mar 2019 02:54

Rishirishi wrote:Daily updated sat pic of Balakot (got the coordinates from Wikipedia, Balakot attacks.
https://zoom.earth/#34.46321,73.318545,19z,sat
This picture is supposed to be an updated one.

From google Earth
https://www.google.com/maps/place/34%C2 ... 73.3188889

The rooftop of one of the buildings seems to be lasted off.

It’s still unclear. Perhaps the pakis are using stealth solar panels that have over 70% efficiency?

Sachin · Post by **Sachin** » 04 Mar 2019 03:09

JeM chief Masood Azhar killed in IAF air strike at Balakot?
When it comes to pseudo-secularism 'The Week' is one of the top scorers. But is there any truth in the report? If it is indeed true, this is actually a big big feather in the cap of our intel agencies. They picked up the best spot, with the best Jehadis waiting for the 72s.

Raveen · Post by **Raveen** » 04 Mar 2019 03:11

Rishirishi wrote:Daily updated sat pic of Balakot (got the coordinates from Wikipedia, Balakot attacks.
https://zoom.earth/#34.46321,73.318545,19z,sat
This picture is supposed to be an updated one.

From google Earth
https://www.google.com/maps/place/34%C2 ... 73.3188889

The rooftop of one of the buildings seems to be lasted off.

The same Bing map images from a few years ago repackaged and rediscussed - and dismissed several several times.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 04 Mar 2019 04:16

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/what-ha ... se-2002060
What Happened At Balakot? Unreleased Satellite Pics May Prove India's Case

May be too early, India seems to have evidence of surgical strike, channels asking govt to release

williams · Post by **williams** » 04 Mar 2019 04:22

IndraD wrote:https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/what-ha ... se-2002060
What Happened At Balakot? Unreleased Satellite Pics May Prove India's Case

May be too early, India seems to have evidence of surgical strike, channels asking govt to release

Channels are asking so that they can report them and keep their audience interested. There is no problem with the regular Aam Admi in trusting our Armed forces briefing. GOI will release pictures only when they think it adds any value and if does not compromise on any credible information that is worth keeping a secret.

Ankit Desai · Post by **Ankit Desai** » 04 Mar 2019 04:23

Any news about other two targets ?

Total 12 Mirages took off to drop payloads with Su30 & MIGs for air support.

Each Mirage was carrying 1000kg bomb to be dropped. There is no news saying Balakot was hit by 12 bombs. Each were saying 4-5 bombs were dropped.

So other Mirages dropped their payload some where else. On the day of Balakot news channels were talking about 3-4 targets so what did happen to at least other two targets ?

-Ankit

suryag · Post by **suryag** » 04 Mar 2019 04:36

Folks have you seen this ? OMG !!!

https://twitter.com/arunv2808/status/11 ... 1981727747