Perspectives on the global economic changes

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Austin
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 07 Feb 2019 12:01

Bloomberg: U.S. Health Care Is Headed for Disaster, Former HHS Sec. Leavitt Says


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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 08 Feb 2019 21:51

David Stockman - Central Banks Created Fiscal Doomsday Machine


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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 10 Feb 2019 09:02

Neshant Good Read
Next Stop: Recession!We've arrived at the end of the line by Chris Martenson

https://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/114 ... -recession

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby JohnTitor » 11 Feb 2019 10:25

Austin wrote:Yes this is day light robbery , So called rule based order where rules are bent to suit ones political agenda

GOI gold is in India AFAIK in RBI vault

Austin, a while ago, I had read that some of India's gold is at fort Knox or England/Germany.. I can't seem to find any information on it now.. can you check?

...

I found the link.

https://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Annual ... 0D535F.PDF

If you go to page 160.. you will see a table that shows roughly half of all our gold is held abroad, at the bank of England
Last edited by JohnTitor on 11 Feb 2019 15:55, edited 1 time in total.

Neshant
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Neshant » 11 Feb 2019 12:40

Will check out your link.

Note : Chris Martenson has been wrong for a long time now on account of not having anticipated the artificial re-inflation of the bubble since 2008.

There's been a lot of bogus economic growth reported globally since 2008 so I'm sure a shoe will drop somewhere.



Yet another perspective below.


------

10 NEW Signs Of China Imminent Economic Collapse 2019 China's Yuan CRASH!


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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 13 Feb 2019 08:33

US National Debt Surpasses $22 Trillion Mark for First Time - Treasury Data
The US national debt for the first time ever crossed the $22 trillion mark, Treasury Department data revealed Tuesday. The total US national debt is now $22.012 trillion.

According to the US Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the United States’ federal budget deficit will rise by more than $100 billion to reach $900 billion this year. The CBO said in its January report that over the coming decade, deficits will fluctuate between 4.1 percent and 4.7 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), well above the average over the past half a century.

the US public debt grew roughly by $2 trillion compared to early 2017 when President Donald trump took office, according to the US Treasury Department. Moreover, the rate of increase of the debt accelerated after Trump pushed through $1.5 trillion in tax cuts in December 2017.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 13 Feb 2019 08:37

DT added $2 Trillion to the National Debt by the end of 2020 weather he stays or leaves he might add another 1.5 Trillion , The budget deficit of 4.1-4.7 % is quite high for a nation whose Debt to GDP ratio is above 105 %

With all the unpaid liabilities US Debt is quite high has Jeff Gundlach has mentioned it is around $122 Trillion or 6x times of GDP.

He states US is floating in an Ocean of Debt http://fortune.com/2019/01/12/jeffrey-gundlach-us-debt/

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 13 Feb 2019 16:26

Paul Volcker & Ray Dalio | State of the US Economy & Government


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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 16 Feb 2019 17:42

'When the next recession comes there is going to be a lot of turmoil,' says Jeffrey Gundlach


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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 20 Feb 2019 23:49

Jeffrey Gundlach on the market, millennials, cannabis, taxes, and the 2020 election


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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 23 Feb 2019 11:23

Video on Tump lecturing his negotiator on MOU .Funny :rotfl:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... emium-asia

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 23 Feb 2019 11:29

Jeffrey Gundlach

Verified account

Fed: “two ‘19 hikes & Auto QT” in mere weeks turned into “patient & maybe QE regular tool”. Now it’s “past <2% CPI needs future >2% offset”.

So Fed is saying they not only will allow, but actually desire CPI to rise above 2%! Bond market is getting boiled like a frog in a pot.

Achieving more of the SocGen definition of “success” hapless Oudea announced today he is weighing cutting 1000’s of investment banking jobs.

Goal of 2% not just future inflation, but for the future to make up for past “shortfalls” means the real Fed goal is prices 2x every 35 yrs.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Neshant » 25 Feb 2019 17:05

Austin wrote:Video on Tump lecturing his negotiator on MOU .Funny :rotfl:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... emium-asia


Trump is right.

MOUs don't mean anything. Only a signed agreement does.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 12 Mar 2019 21:25

Stockman: America’s Deficits ‘Unheard of Historically,’ We’re in ‘Uncharted Waters’


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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 14 Mar 2019 20:32

The Powell Put & the Bear Market Rally (w/ Jeff Gundlach) | Interview | Real Vision™


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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 14 Mar 2019 20:32

Neshant what do you thing about the Interview with Jeff Gundlach



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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 12 Apr 2019 23:07

Stephen K. Bannon's Keynote Address at the Western Petroleum Marketers Association in Las Vegas


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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Singha » 13 Apr 2019 13:21

what is behind the EU household debt so high vs the US ?

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 13 Apr 2019 16:15

Could possibly be a combination of higher standard of living and lower wages , expensive houses and hence high mortgages , Credit Card Bills , Student loans and other factor contributing to higher Household debt.

Among G-20 countries India seems to have lower Household debt to GDP ratio of 11:30 %

https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/ ... ebt-to-gdp

I think this is a vicous cycle that EU and US citizen might be going through because they have high household debt what ever salary they earn a significant % might be going into paying those interest for mortgages , CC bills , Education loans etc and then to maintain those standard of living or new requirement you need to borrow more and this adds up to more household to debt ratio.

This at a time when interest rates are so low in EU and US barely 1-2 % what happens when those rise to 3-4 % that debt will just rise.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 14 Apr 2019 22:40

THE TRUTH Behind President Trump's New Call For QE4. By Gregory Mannarino


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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 15 Apr 2019 10:34

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
·
14h
If the Fed had done its job properly, which it has not, the Stock Market would have been up 5000 to 10,000 additional points, and GDP would have been well over 4% instead of 3%...with almost no inflation. Quantitative tightening was a killer, should have done the exact opposite! :rotfl: :rotfl:

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby panduranghari » 14 May 2019 17:35

On the 1st of Dec 2007,the % of C or lower rated debt was approximately 10%. On the 1st of January 2008, when the financial crisis was underway it rose to 19%. At the peak of the last crisis it was 24%.

Today when all is hunkydory, the % of C and lower rated debt is...........drumroll..........43%!

If that is not astounding then god knows what is....this has become too long in the tooth.

Did you hear about CLO's? The brother of CDO's. Those pesky CDO's which brought down the anglo saxon system last time around? Yes they are gone but what has arrived to replace them is the CLO- Collateralised Loan Obligations.

Roughly they account for 65trillion of notional debt. Most of it is held by banks from Europe and Japan as they have to deal with negative interest rates. Lots of people are going to holding pitchforks and asking for bankers heads. I doubt they will get any.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby A_Gupta » 15 May 2019 02:46

The chart available here says Eurozone household debt-to-GDP peaked at 64% in 2010, and has since been steadily declining to present when it is 57.6%
https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/ ... ebt-to-gdp

Likewise US household debt-to-GDP peaked at 98.6% around 2008 and since has dropped to 76.4%
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-sta ... ebt-to-gdp

My conclusion is that someone is trying to stampede people into buying gold.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby panduranghari » 15 May 2019 14:43

The household debt does not include student debt which is a huge problem in US. The European debt does not include the liabilities owned to the public by pension providers.

If people who are sensible are not doing what they must, then there will be some really hard times.

Also the current debt levels are manageable (?) at 0%. At 2% not so. So all the hard worked calculations do not add up. Is there any wonder why Powell's rhetoric of rising rates is now gone and substituted by zero bound or even lower.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby A_Gupta » 16 May 2019 01:56

May be of interest, old article - US Household Debt (including student debt), but the trends remain the same.
http://www.slate.com/articles/business/ ... harts.html

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 16 May 2019 13:19

We are in this new phase of economic development model which Fed has perfected along with BOJ and ECB where

Interest will be eternally close to 0 or negitive
Stock Market propped by Central Banks will keep rising with some minor correction via small fall
Junk Bond or Low Rated Corporate Bonds dont matter
Debts Really Does not matter as Printing Press is eternal and Inflation wont rise beyond 2-3 % no matter how much they print out.
Student Loan and other will get recaliberated or washed off by Central Banks.
Gold and Other Precious Metal interest rates wil be controlled with Paper Gold , Metals etc

The last 10 years of experiments with QE and LRIP/Near Zero interest rates etc has been perfected for the next 2-3 decades of economic growth model

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 22 May 2019 13:06

Steve Bannon: China was not prepared to have Trump in office


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Re: Perspectives on the global economic changes

Postby Austin » 22 May 2019 23:18

DoubleLine CEO Gundlach



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