Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

[Singha]

We need ro repurpose one squadron of su30 in growler config and distribute them into half in east and jalf in west

[Guddu]

https://www.flightradar24.com/23.94,73.38/5

There seems to be no traffic in western parts of India and eastern pak. Any maulanas have a guess...It says things are not normal....

[nam]

EW: This is one area, which lets Khan dominate the battle space.

I still remember reading about Serbian Mig29 radar going useless as soon as they lift off during the NATO campaign. This is why Khan can still make Aim120 deadly. With it's EW blinding adversary radar and sensors, fundamentally flying blind in to in coming Aim120. Most of them never get to know what hit them.

We should have invested in Ground and Air borne EW to blind the PAF package that was coming in for strike. However all we have is one lab DARE, to cater to our EW requirements.

[Karan M]

Be happy we at least have that. Otherwise by now even that may have been dropped/sabotaged.

Anyhow, we will be making definite strides in that area soon. The D-29 program on the Fulcrums, has been a real breakthrough as has been Tarang validation on the MiG-27 Upg & now LCA. With the experience from these, we have a good base to take things forward on the rest of our fleet, including the Su-30s, DARIN-3 Jaguars and so forth. Mirage 2000's and Rafale's are covered.

[Singha]

I believe these are indian sukhoi7 and mig21s attacking dhaka airport. One is hit by guns and crashes surely killing the pilot. In end one can see western diplomatic families waiting for evac moving out into a trench to take cover.



How kissinger and his gang must have fumed at this

[Singha]

And here is bush senior in the UN cursing india for disregarding the moral tree of gandhi and nehru
Hypocrisy to the core after lakhs killed by the pak army and razakars

https://youtu.be/t8FqfHcvr0c

[mmasand]

https://www.flightradar24.com/23.94,73.38/5

There seems to be no traffic in western parts of India and eastern pak. Any maulanas have a guess...It says things are not normal....

Absolutely naarmal Saar, the only airport operating at this hour in the North West is Amritsar, which sees a handful of international flights through the night. Jammu, Srinagar, Leh, Chandigarh, Dedhradun don't see any ops after dark.

[Singha]

Bangladesh the new baby that india helped in birthing, despite being resource starved and high population is on verge of crossing the gdp of its alcoholic “father”

The gap will only increase as their trajectories diverge

[Mort Walker]

Bangladesh the new baby that india helped in birthing, despite being resource starved and high population is on verge of crossing the gdp of its alcoholic “father”

The gap will only increase as their trajectories diverge

It already has.
Pakistan’s army is to blame for the poverty of the country’s 208m citizens

[Zynda]

BThe D-29 program on the Fulcrums, has been a real breakthrough as has been Tarang validation on the MiG-27 Upg & now LCA. With the experience from these, we have a good base to take things forward on the rest of our fleet, including the Su-30s, DARIN-3 Jaguars and so forth. Mirage 2000's and Rafale's are covered.

I guess still the time ain't right to discuss the above (keen on clarifying D-29 status on UPG), but I can wait.

Anyways, also it seems like for Tejas, we have selected ELL-8222WB SPJ pod. I understand WB has tackle wider range of frequencies compared to vanilla 8222. I do hope that WB induction expands to entire fleet.

I guess the recent positive experience of IAF planes defeating AMRAAMs will help IAF make a case with babus for Growler kind of planes as well as additional EW infra, R&D etc. If needed, let us sign agreement with Roos for additional 25 Su-30s from HAL for dedicated EW platforms.

[nam]

We will see lot of future standoff fights between us and Paks in the air, like the one we see between IA & PA on LoC.

Need to put in place kit for such a fight.

Powerful EW to saturate 50-100KM airspace in to PoK to blind PAF radar, RWR, jam AWACS+Jet Datalinks, Radio comm etc. Ground and Air based EW.

Ramjet BVR to chase running away PAF jets. Ability to knock off PAF BVR & CCM. Passive and Active counter measures.

[Singha]

Roos might have certain ideas for powerful ground based jammers also to take out drones and deny gps
Good stuff for vital areas

It seems last week some rocket or drone swarm hit layakia again

In exchange some bombers hit hts depots and dens inside idlib city center with large bunker busters

https://www.rt.com/news/453748-syria-dr ... destroyed/

[Mort Walker]

We will see lot of future standoff fights between us and Paks in the air, like the one we see between IA & PA on LoC.

Need to put in place kit for such a fight.

Powerful EW to saturate 50-100KM airspace in to PoK to blind PAF radar, RWR, jam AWACS+Jet Datalinks, Radio comm etc. Ground and Air based EW.

Ramjet BVR to chase running away PAF jets. Ability to knock off PAF BVR & CCM. Passive and Active counter measures.

Using AI algorithms and sensors across the electromagnetic spectrum, will allow this to happen; however, it must be done domestically to build up India's technical base. With a swarm of LCA Tejas no one stands a chance to get into India's airspace.

[SaiK]

Stealth platform's focus should be on LPI radar integrated with passive tracking & scanning mounted on wings (la raptoriski)

[nam]

This is some structure around Haji Pir Pass. They look like bunkers to me. And they look like been hit by artillery/mortars.

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Haji+ ... 74.0833333


Can somone good at GE confirm?

[shyamd]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 446206.cms

NEW DELHI/ISLAMABAD: The sparring between India and Pakistan last month threatened to spiral out of control and only interventions by US officials, including National Security Advisor John Bolton, headed off a bigger conflict, five sources familiar with the events said.

At one stage, India threatened to fire at least six missiles at Pakistan, and Islamabad said it would respond with its own missile strikes "three times over", according to Western diplomats and government sources in New Delhi, Islamabad and Washington.

That evening, Indian National Security Adviser Ajit Doval spoke over a secure line to the head of Pakistan’s Inter Services Intelligence (ISI), Asim Munir, to tell him India was not going to back off its new campaign of "counter terrorism" even after the pilot’s capture, an Indian government source and a Western diplomat with knowledge of the conversations told Reuters in New Delhi.

Doval told Munir that India's fight was with the terrorist groups that freely operated from Pakistani soil and it was prepared to escalate, said the government source.

A Pakistani government minister and a Western diplomat in Islamabad separately confirmed a specific Indian threat to use six missiles on targets inside Pakistan. They did not specify who delivered the threat or who received it, but the minister said Indian and Pakistani intelligence agencies "were communicating with each other during the fight, and even now they are communicating with each other".

So a Pakistani account claiming India warned them that we were ready to climb the next rung in the escalation ladder. If this account is true, which is doubtful, I think Indian decision makers are still thinking in terms of proportional retaliation.

In my personal opinion, I dont think this threat to use limited force was effective. It signaled to the Pakistanis, that Indians were not prepared for an aar-paar. It would have been more effective to threaten complete war. This again means, that Pakistani elite can again take a calculated risk in the subconventional space for attacks on India, with an expected response from India that remains proportionate and not existential.

Brace for a mass casualty attack part way through the election. This is the best chance for Pak to secure a weak govt. in India that can make their planned invasion of Afghanistan easier. They wont let this chance go without another throw of the dice.

I sometimes feel, our decision makers do not have the Kshatriya upbringing to understand what weapons mean and how they keep peace. There is a tradition in many parts of India, that a sword, if taken out of the scabbard, must taste blood before its put back. It ensures that the sword is only taken out for deadly violence, not as a toy to threaten someone. The tradition also ensures that swords are kept in scabbards most of the time.

My only hope is that this reportage by garbage reuters is not true. After the Paki airstrike, we had an internationally recognized casus belli, which we should have utilized effectively. If true, we have just bought ourselves misery.

There are elements of this article that is true - e.g. that GOI has direct contract with TSPA - ISI. Do you really think that India go and ask permission to launch 'six missiles'? That is a certain country leaking intelligence about proposed targets and plans to TSP - to put TSP under pressure.

There is a lot that is happening outside the media angle. Few things to mention:
1) Once we try a certain strategy - the enemy learns from it and thus we can't repeat. e.g. 'Surgical strikes - TSPA pulled out terrorists further back.
2) TSPA are miffed with IAF airstrikes internally... Generals are sending letters saying "Nuclear deterrence is not working" - so they are thinking about posture/strategy and where to go next... IA/IAF/IN/NSC are busy planning/gaming response.
3) GoI is not interested in dealing with civilian govt. Focus is talks direct with TSPA
4) Covert action will continue and majority of action will be in this domain.
5) With the improving weather comes a new infiltration season.

My view is that TSPA will try to expand infiltration as a response. It remains to be seen if GoI will make cross border counter terror ops as routine. IA has the capability - this needs some will power.

[nam]

Post winter there will be heavy infiltration & BAT attacks. It is given. Pak has no more leverage on us. And with IAF strike being the paradigm shift, we will see Pak revert back to pre-2003 level infiltration, with all the hordes been let off the lease.

The saving grace, we have the fencing protecting to some extend. And lot of cleaning done in Kashmir will help. In 2001-02, lot of causalities due to fight in hinterland.

The way to make it expensive for PA is regular airstrikes on PA positions on LoC & heavy 155MM fire assaults. This is where standoff fights with PAF will happen.

Our SF should be send to paint targets for 155MM/air strikes. Not for high risk ops.

[Guddu]

This is some structure around Haji Pir Pass. They look like bunkers to me. And they look like been hit by artillery/mortars.

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Haji+ ... 74.0833333


Can somone good at GE confirm?

We really need a new satellite pass to confirm new changes...time line on Google earth.

[sanjaykumar]

For the record and claims access to privileged information.

[sanjaykumar]

Possible.

https://archive.fo/20171019193137/https ... -raytheon/

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... ts-416872/

[Mahesh_R]

Why is Paki air space still closed ? looks they are spooked big time? are we missing anything??

They are scared of more air strikes. There are so many terrorists there, it is hard to drop anything there and miss hitting a terrorist

Is it possible to estimate the losses due to non operation of airports ?
They will loss parking charges, taxes and other perks from the domestic and international flights...
They also have to pay for the airport security and other people employed over there though the airspace may be shut..

why would they think of losing even if it is a penny given the bad economic situation they are in now ?

Is is possible to get a ball park number of how much per day $$$ loss due to closure of the airspace ?

[Singha]

Around 500,000 usd a day for overflight transit charges

Rest of it for unused ground infra that still costs as you mention incl people

[manjgu]

there is no cross traffic Pak>India>pak. the entire area north to south is empty !! napakis from SE Asia, NZ, Australia have to go to dubai to reach pakistan ??

[sudeepj]

SudeepJ what does a Kshatriya have to do with it?

Having an internalized theory of how force/violence can be used for national interest.

[sudeepj]

so even the powered CALCM in middle with a light chassis (has to be light being a ALCM for range) can give in some 4m @ its terminal speed of around 800kmph.

I am not sure what the material is supposed to be be - soil, concrete or natural rock ( softer to hardest ).... the GBU43 MOP is listed as 61m so must be soil I guess ? these inert air carried bombs has the benefit of a very hard heavy shell which missiles like ALCM or brahmos cannot have luxury of.

muricans will use the B2 to drop it off.

neverthless the penetration figure of brahmos @ terminal speed of mach3 in vertical dive will be much more than CALCM which is 4m in chart above....should be able to punch through 5m thick sheet of concrete with rod mesh inside. ie the US funded premier level aircraft and weapons shelters in and around PAF bases can be tackled at standoff range. the nuclear weapons storage vaults seen in raj47 tweet will be under dense natural rock and need special weapons like MOP, infact MOP was developed to tackle similar constructions in Iran.

also if cruise missiles are accurate, they can target the entrances of such shelters, and they do carry a large warhead. in airbases there is usually a blast wall infront of such entrances to protect from cruise missiles though.

Brahmos will need a new type of warhead for the bunker busting/penetration role. Its designed to penetrate 1'' thick steel and blow up inside ships, or a general blast fragmentation warhead. I vaguely remember seeing a Brahmos test penetrating a concrete wall, but cant find the video now.

Found the penetration video.. Looks like penetration of a meter or so of concrete. I was wrong, Brahmos can already serve as a bunker-buster.

https://youtu.be/DMj8WGvuvwE?t=19

Here is a recent story of Tomahawk taking out Syrian HAS shelters, if a slow poke like a Tomahawk can take these out, a Brahmos will come through like a hot knife through butter.

https://informnapalm.org/en/precision-s ... -shelters/

[sudeepj]

http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-new ... uvXLJ.html

Rising military tensions between Indian and Pakistan after the February 14 Pulwama suicide car bombing led the Indian Navy to cut short a major exercise in the Indian Ocean region and swiftly redeploy its frontline assets to the north Arabian Sea for operations, the navy said in a rare announcement.

It said on Sunday that the buildup consisting of an aircraft carrier, nuclear-powered attack submarines and scores of frontline warships and maritime aircraft put the Pakistan Navy on the back foot.

Experts and senior navy officials said the naval mobilisation was the biggest since Operation Parakram following the December 2001 terror attack on Parliament that brought India and Pakistan to the brink of war.

...

India had enough warships at sea for the redeployment on very short notice. As many as 72 Indian warships and 60 aircraft were involved in the Theatre Level Operational Readiness Exercise (Tropex 19) that began on January 7 and was to go on till March 10, had the Pulwama terror strike not led to a change of plan. India responded to the Pulwama attack by sending its fighter jets to bomb a terror base in Balakot on February 26.

Army elements were also a part of Tropex 19, a biennial exercise, for carrying out amphibious assaults.

Apart from a carrier battle group consisting of INS Vikramaditya and its escort ships, the assets redeployed to the north Arabian Sea included the indigenous nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine INS Arihant, Akula-II nuclear-powered attack boat INS Chakra, the Scorpene-class submarine INS Kalvari, Boeing P-8I submarine hunter planes and several destroyers and frigates, two navy officials said on condition of anonymity.

They added that the combat units are still deployed in the region and the navy was in the highest state of preparedness.

The last time something like this happened was during Operation Parakram, said former navy chief Admiral Arun Prakash (retd). “The message of this posturing is that of deterrence. There’s no guarantee that the air strikes will deter them. So a further message has been sent to Pakistan to stop supporting terror,” Prakash said.

Jingo khush hua.. We may have peaceful elections after all.

[Singha]

there is no cross traffic Pak>India>pak. the entire area north to south is empty !! napakis from SE Asia, NZ, Australia have to go to dubai to reach pakistan ??

Forgot to add

Each domestic flight between karachi to multan,lahore,pindi is using 1 hour of extra fuel each way

Because the route goes far west and then hugs the afghan border its like 3 sides of a trapezium

That in sum will be far more cost than 500k isd earned on overflights charging 82cents per mile or km on 787 sized craft last i checked

[mmasand]

there is no cross traffic Pak>India>pak. the entire area north to south is empty !! napakis from SE Asia, NZ, Australia have to go to dubai to reach pakistan ??

Bhaisaab, even we are suffering. Hordes of flights cancelled as direct routing isn't available, and higher fuel consumption otherwise necessitating fuel stops. They couldn't care less about non-GCC flights.

[manjgu]

mmasand... bhaisaheb. I am trying to understand why Pakis are so spooked that the airspace is still closed more than the discomfort/suffering aspect. Do the Pakis know something which we ar BRF dont !?

[Aditya_V]

We are also making more money as these many of these aircraft have now to cover more kilometers over the Indian mainland, this airspace closer is hitting the Pakis most. It is also reflective of the Ground based radar capabilities of the 2 nations, Pakis radars are most probably 2D and can't really differentiate.

[mmasand]

mmasand... bhaisaheb. I am trying to understand why Pakis are so spooked that the airspace is still closed more than the discomfort/suffering aspect. Do the Pakis know something which we ar BRF dont !?

Logic isn't in their dictionary, so I am as baffled as you are. They may have serious deficiencies with their traffic control systems and/or air defence (SILLACS) to accommodate commercial flights alongside.

[Singha]

a few AI flights from delhi have been cancelled. but other than that
- no impact on domestic flights . the 9W financial issues, summer rush and 737MAX issue is impacting , not pak airspace.
- all the flights to GCC from west, south, east have a slight south bend or none at all. for eg the vast number of flights from usual gulfie worker pools on west coast
- flight from far east are now flying over mumbai or ahmedabad ATC and spending more time in our airspace....more cash for us.

overall I think we can keep it up indefinitely.

AI is anyway bankrupt and depends on 2-3 billion$ USD of govt handout every year to keep flying. keeping some AI planes on the ground may infact be cheaper since they own the planes not lease!

the Pak airspace all around their major military bases is closed.....dalbandin, jacobabad, quetta, bholari, badin, krachi, bhowalpur is a big trapzium.

the other trapzeium is around sargodha .... the airlines from lahore/multan and piindi pass on either side of it now iirc.

[Aditya_V]

Looking at Flight radar 24, a C-17 it seems is flying from Keylong to Chandigarh or Ambala, is there an airstrip near Keylong? or on flight radar 24 the remaining path to Leh was with the transponder off?

[manjgu]

keylong closest airfiled is Bhunta( near Manali/kullu). Kullu airport is closed for 3 days for some strange reason.

[Karan M]

Possible.

https://archive.fo/20171019193137/https ... -raytheon/

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... ts-416872/

I wonder how much this guy just picks up by surfing BRF. I must have posted this half a dozen times myself.



Then these:



Then he says heat signatures.. and then these techniques have challenges.. errm.. these are radar pods. Not IR ones.

[Shivaji]

16-March --> Pakis attacked our BOP in Poonch sector with ATGM. Per Bababanaras, ATGM missed target and no damage.

17-March --> we fired ATGM on their BOP in Sundebani sector. We might have fried the cockroaches.

18-March --> Pakis retaliated today with ATGM in Keri-Battal area of Sundebani sector. News of few casualties.
https://twitter.com/firstpost/status/11 ... 2205380608

Details on participation on 23 March parade of Pakis:
https://theprint.in/defence/china-sends ... gn=browser

"The parade this year will feature flypasts by Turkish F-16s and Chinese J-10 aircraft, besides paratroop contingents from the Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Sri Lanka armed forces."

Why are Sri Lankans there?

[dinesha]

A Smoldering Volcano: Pakistan and Terrorism after Balakot-ASHLEY J. TELLIS
https://carnegieendowment.org/2019/03/1 ... -pub-78593

[Ravi Karumanchiri]

mmasand... bhaisaheb. I am trying to understand why Pakis are so spooked that the airspace is still closed more than the discomfort/suffering aspect. Do the Pakis know something which we ar BRF dont !?

^^^^^^^
This must be a counter-surveillance initiative. Their particular problem is that the TSP is indeed a "target rich environment" and so they've got to be careful, i.e. "discreet". The reason why they're spooked, is because the Balakot strike was "intelligence lead"; described as such by the GoI from the very beginning, and by all accounts, hit the JeM very hard. Early remarks referenced cell phones, sometimes even a number of phones "active" on the premises. Now consider: The way an intelligence agency -- any intelligence agency -- is going to look-into a cell phone, inherently involves "watching/listening" to it over a period of time. Spooks are not just going to strike, right-off-the bat. No: They'll spend some time spying, of course! This will allow a full illumination of a network of interrelated callers. Individual's "voice prints" will be registered. Geo-coordinates, of where calls were placed-from, and to, will all be compiled and perhaps even shared internationally, to ascertain the deepest roots to be found. This is SOP.

The fact that R&AW has published photos from inside the Balakot camp, on the ground there, must be chilling to the entirety of JeM and anyone else who transited through there.

Commercial air traffic has for a long time been suspected as 'leveraged' by intelligence agencies, who would find it all too easy to affix cameras and other surveillance gear, to their national airlines' planes. (Some Rakshaks will perhaps recall the cold war Soviet shoot-down of KAL007, which was violating prohibited Russian airspace.) I can well imagine a lot of the terror cadres/infrastructure/terror crews are well-and-properly paranoid now. Many of them will have dead jihadi's in their cell phone's contacts list -- on speed dial and whatnot -- and on a certain level they must know it no longer matters if they get a new phone and new phone number themselves. Their voices, perhaps the photos and videos they've sent each other, the locations and voice-prints of everyone they've called, this is all certainly fed into the F3EAD workflow by now. (Find, fix, finish, exploit/analyze/disseminate.)

Many of these guys will have spent months, years or even decades, building-up their egos, feeling like they were pressing the agenda, and were invincible while doing so. Now they've discovered the hard way: Airstrikes can really engender a sense of vulnerability, especially from the air, which we cannot well imagine (not being terrorists in terror camps).

Consider also: There are various kinds of spy satellites; ones that collect optical wavelengths of light using powerful cameras, cameras that operate beyond our human spectrum of sight, as well as pure 'snooping' antennae for transmission-interception, and a new class of radar-imaging satellites which offer powerful capabilities (even though they are somewhat limited by the power constraints of satellite operation).

A way around this satellite power limitation, is to focus collection on the same frequencies as are used in (commercial airliner) aircraft radio altimeter devices. [That's right, airliners go around constantly bombarding the earth they overfly with a radio signal used to determine altitude. When this transmission reflects off-of certain surfaces, as opposed to others, a reflected signal intensity can be collected/computed on a pixel-by-pixel basis. Truly, you'd be amazed at the resolution.]

It's like how you can see things in the dark, that are adequately bathed in moonlight, which is reflected sunlight. In this case, a purpose-built spy satellite can 'image' the reflected radio altimeter pings emitted by passing airplanes, and draw a very precise picture of the terrain underneath, especially metallic objects. NB: This kind of data stream is processed by computers, which can raise the alert about something fishy, without humans having to scour-over every square meter of the area of interest.

As for the TSP being "nook nude", the plain reality is that ISRO has built and launched satellites which are essentially as I've described above. Statements have already been made publicly (though I cannot now point to them), that these SAR satellites are so exquisitely sharp-eyed, that a couple of cms of subsidence in the earth, will be detected from orbit, through cloud-cover and even snow and vegetation. This means, underground construction, like the kind required to build an underground bunker using heavy equipment, will of-necessity, produce a little bit of 'settling' of the earth overhead. This can and is being detected, from space, and has clearly illuminated where the buried "treasure" is hidden. (It must be a treasure, if it was worth eating so much grass to afford.)

IN SUM: The terror network is fully mapped. (It must be, look at the intel that's been shared, and consider the implications of it properly.) The nuclear sites are similarly 'within reach', as was Balakot in KPK.

The TSP has been given a clear decision point, unlike any it has been faced with before. [Kudos to the current gov't.] The TSP can either reform it's ways and give-up the Gwaz e Hind or whatever that's called; and demonstrate peaceful ways from now forward, or face destruction. Renounce arms, or die by them. They are coming to this realization, and I feel certain that any confusion on this point, will be corrected, both "non-militarily" (even if that's a dozen M2Ks delivering some special spice); or a full-featured military lesson.

Lacking verifiable and irreversible dismantling of "terror networks and infrastructure", another lesson may be necessitated by another incident of TSP-sourced terrorism. NB: They will work extra hard now, to establish "plausible deniability" for any shenanigans they'll plan, going forward.

[chetak]

[Singha]

https://www.caapakistan.com.pk/ANS/Ops/ANS-ATM.aspx

balakot does not fall under any international transit air lane. its NW of muzzafarabad.

however lot of other soft underbelly areas do.