Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

jamwal · Post by **jamwal** » 27 Mar 2019 15:52

Let us not analyse his tweets here. This is proving to be way too much noise. He was also using tweets by troll accounts like that Alikhatna to claim that he was correct.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 27 Mar 2019 16:36

https://notionpress.com/read/operation-al-nagrib

sudeepj · Post by **sudeepj** » 27 Mar 2019 22:15

Mihir wrote:
sudeepj wrote:
The camera is potato quality...

What you are seeing as a contrail is really fuel and smoke from the hit fighter.
That is one possible explanation. Doesn't prove anything definitively. You expect a fighter that has taken a hit to spew smoke and possibly hurtle towards the ground. This one isn't doing anything of the sort.

Mihir, I am not sure if you understand Punjabi/Hindi.. but listen to the audio from the eye witnesses. 56 seconds into the video, there is a boom, followed by Alla-Snackbar chants, and commentary saying.. second boom, one more boom. The second one is down.

Therefore its reasonable to conclude that before Abdul whipped out his potato camera, there was a boom, which took down the jet that is clearly going down.

The size of the 'now you see it, now you dont' second 'contrail' is large enough to be comparable to the plume of the first fighter going down, and that one is clearly streaming smoke, kerosene and flames. Therefore what you are seeing is not a contrail, but a plume.

There is a gap of roughly 30 seconds between the second plume and the boom. Simple calculation puts the distance between the second plume and the camera to be around 20kms. Which sounds about right.. The label of the video says Mirpur, and Horran, where the Mig21 came down, is about that distance from Mirpur, POK.

Finally, there is no parachute visible in the video.. Where are the parachutes from the first plane, that is clearly shown to be crashing..? We know Abhinandana ejected quite high up.. If the Mig21 was the only plane that went down, we should be able to see the parachute.. Therefore, the first plane is the F16.. The second boom is the Mig21 'injesting debris', that flew on a few more seconds and perhaps 10 kms more before Abhinandana ejected.

I think, this proves conclusively, that two planes went down that day, one pilot survived, and the pilot(s) in the other one did not.

anishns · Post by **anishns** » 27 Mar 2019 22:17

https://thewire.in/security/balakot-air ... te-imagery

The WIRE up to its usual antics. Nothing new

Regurgigating the same old debunked tripe. No original content

Some militaries, such as those of the US and Australia, have spent years developing the technologies and systems that enable precision strike and employing the skills required in actual operations. But proficiency should not be taken for granted. It takes more than the weapon itself to launch a successful precision strike.

Haanji Australia has so much more experience fighting wars in its neighborhood.

sudeepj · Post by **sudeepj** » 27 Mar 2019 22:50

anishns wrote:https://thewire.in/security/balakot-air ... te-imagery
Some militaries, such as those of the US and Australia, have spent years developing the technologies and systems that enable precision strike and employing the skills required in actual operations. But proficiency should not be taken for granted. It takes more than the weapon itself to launch a successful precision strike.
Haanji Australia has so much more experience fighting wars in its neighborhood.

Australian experience in war: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emu_War

The Emu War, also known as the Great Emu War,[1] was a nuisance wildlife management military operation undertaken in Australia over the latter part of 1932 to address public concern over the number of emus said to be running amok in the Campion district of Western Australia. The unsuccessful attempts to curb the population of emus, a large flightless bird indigenous to Australia, employed soldiers armed with Lewis guns.

Following World War I, large numbers of ex-soldiers from Australia, along with a number of British veterans, were given land by the Australian government to take up farming within Western Australia, often in marginal areas. The difficulties facing farmers were increased by the arrival of as many as 20,000 emus.[3] Emus regularly migrate after their breeding season, heading to the coast from the inland regions. With the cleared land and additional water supplies being made available for livestock by the West Australian farmers, the emus found that the cultivated lands were good habitat, and they began to foray into farm territory—in particular the marginal farming land around Chandler and Walgoolan.[2] The emus consumed and spoiled the crops, as well as leaving large gaps in fences where rabbits could enter and cause further problems.[4]

Farmers relayed their concerns about the birds ravaging their crops, and a deputation of ex-soldiers were sent to meet with the Minister of Defence, Sir George Pearce. Having served in World War I, the soldier-settlers were well aware of the effectiveness of machine guns, and they requested their deployment. The minister readily agreed, although with conditions attached: the guns were to be used by military personnel, and troop transport was to be financed by the Western Australian government, and the farmers would provide food, accommodation, and payment for the ammunition.

On 2 November the men travelled to Campion, where some 50 emus were sighted.[2] As the birds were out of range of the guns, the local settlers attempted to herd the emus into an ambush, but the birds split into small groups and ran so that they were difficult to target.[6] Nevertheless, while the first fusillade from the machine guns was ineffective due to the range, a second round of gunfire was able to kill "a number" of birds. Later the same day a small flock was encountered, and "perhaps a dozen" birds were killed.[2]

The next significant event was on 4 November. Meredith had established an ambush near a local dam, and more than 1,000 emus were spotted heading towards their position. This time the gunners waited until the birds were in close proximity before opening fire. The gun jammed after only twelve birds were killed and the remainder scattered before any more could be shot.[8] No more birds were sighted that day.[2]

In the days that followed, Meredith chose to move further south, where the birds were "reported to be fairly tame",[11] but there was only limited success in spite of his efforts.[2] By the fourth day of the campaign, army observers noted that "each pack seems to have its own leader now – a big black-plumed bird which stands fully six feet high and keeps watch while his mates carry out their work of destruction and warns them of our approach."[12] At one stage Meredith even went so far as to mount one of the guns on a truck: a move that proved to be ineffective, as the truck was unable to gain on the birds, and the ride was so rough that the gunner was unable to fire any shots.[2] By 8 November, six days after the first engagement, 2,500 rounds of ammunition had been fired.[6] The number of birds killed is uncertain: one account estimates that it was 50 birds,[6] but other accounts range from 200 to 500—the latter figure being provided by the settlers. Meredith's official report noted that his men had suffered no casualties.

Summarising the culls, ornithologist Dominic Serventy commented:

The machine-gunners' dreams of point blank fire into serried masses of Emus were soon dissipated. The Emu command had evidently ordered guerrilla tactics, and its unwieldy army soon split up into innumerable small units that made use of the military equipment uneconomic. A crestfallen field force therefore withdrew from the combat area after about a month.[13]

On 8 November, representatives in the Australian House of Representatives discussed the operation.[6] Following the negative coverage of the events in the local media,[14] that included claims that "only a few" emus had died,[4] Pearce withdrew the military personnel and the guns on 8 November.[4][6][15][16]

After the withdrawal, Major Meredith compared the emus to Zulus and commented on the striking manoeuvrability of the emus, even while badly wounded.

If we had a military division with the bullet-carrying capacity of these birds it would face any army in the world... They can face machine guns with the invulnerability of tanks. They are like Zulus whom even dum-dum bullets could not stop.[12]

Are the Emus under control yet? No one knows.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 27 Mar 2019 22:52

australia built up vast expertise in eliminating its native population... maybe they meant Austria...? no wait... they eagerly participated in wiping out vast numbers of their own citizens with a neighbourhood psycopath... no wait...

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 28 Mar 2019 12:33

The sustained pressure by GoI of drills close to border is causing shivers in TSP. It’s exhausting TSP in multiple domains - financial and others.

GoI wants to see real crackdown before it reduces the pressure.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 28 Mar 2019 13:09

afghans and the US ambassador in kabul are also displeased with paks posture wrt to the taliban and calling them out.
see amrullah saleh's tweet I posted in terroristan thread. it was in response to shireen mazari rant.
flat out calls them a deranged beggar

Ravi Karumanchiri · Post by **Ravi Karumanchiri** » 28 Mar 2019 20:59

Pakistan: No links found in probe of Indian Pulwama dossier

Islamabad says the allegation that Pakistani groups were involved in Kashmir suicide attack was unsubstantiated.
by Asad Hashim
4 hours ago

Islamabad, Pakistan - Pakistan says it has conducted initial investigations into a dossier provided by neighbouring India on the Pulwama suicide attack in Kashmir, concluding that so far no links can be drawn between Pakistan and the bombing, the foreign office said.

sudeepj · Post by **sudeepj** » 28 Mar 2019 21:14

Singha wrote:afghans and the US ambassador in kabul are also displeased with paks posture wrt to the taliban and calling them out.
see amrullah saleh's tweet I posted in terroristan thread. it was in response to shireen mazari rant.
flat out calls them a deranged beggar

Amrullah Saleh is an especially clear eyed person. One day, he will make the Pakistanis pay for what they are doing to his country.

anishns · Post by **anishns** » 28 Mar 2019 21:30

And the Iranians & the Balochi's Insha*Ganesha*

sudeepj wrote:
Singha wrote:afghans and the US ambassador in kabul are also displeased with paks posture wrt to the taliban and calling them out.
see amrullah saleh's tweet I posted in terroristan thread. it was in response to shireen mazari rant.
flat out calls them a deranged beggar
Amrullah Saleh is an especially clear eyed person. One day, he will make the Pakistanis pay for what they are doing to his country.

shravan · Post by **shravan** » 29 Mar 2019 09:08

Budgam: Indian missile fired before Mi17 V5 chopper crash
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 623744.cms

Hari Nair · Post by **Hari Nair** » 29 Mar 2019 09:30

shravan wrote:Budgam: Indian missile fired before Mi17 V5 chopper crash
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 623744.cms

- An extremely unfortunate case of fratricide.

mmasand · Post by **mmasand** » 29 Mar 2019 09:45

Hari Nair wrote:
shravan wrote:Budgam: Indian missile fired before Mi17 V5 chopper crash
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 623744.cms
- An extremely unfortunate case of fratricide.

This is the difference between the IAF and PAF, one is professional as you would expect. The other indulges in state induced propaganda.

Thakur_B · Post by **Thakur_B** » 29 Mar 2019 10:11

shravan wrote:Budgam: Indian missile fired before Mi17 V5 chopper crash
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 623744.cms

Sounds like a case of IFF failure. Considering the very short distance of helicopter and reaction time of SpyDer the missile couldn't have been aborted in time

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 29 Mar 2019 10:47

its news to me that IFF systems are kept switched off in peacetime. I wonder why? its a passive device that responds only if a missile/aircraft/ground station interrogates it right and does not emit any other time?

anyway they need to run fleetwide realistic tests to ensure ALL of our myriad SAM & AAM systems from igla up to akash are able to work properly with ALL of our myriad a.c types. if needed use banshee drones to carry the IFF and fire various missiles at it. I dont think we can rely on datasheets anymore

Hari Nair · Post by **Hari Nair** » 29 Mar 2019 11:20

Singha wrote:its news to me that IFF systems are kept switched off in peacetime. I wonder why? ….. I dont think we can rely on datasheets anymore

IFF is not kept OFF in peacetime. Transponders are kept ON with discrete code allotted for each flight and in fact are even extensively used for civil air traffic separation. Safety systems such as Traffic Collision Avoidance System (TACS) use Transponders as one of its inputs to calculate and display Resolution Advisories (RA). There are military modes of IFF . In military, there are also other flight procedural safeties built in in addition to just depending on IFF. So, there is more to this very unfortunate 'Blue-on-Blue' accident than just IFF. I am sure the chain of errors that happened will be identified and corrected.

habal · Post by **habal** » 29 Mar 2019 11:28

Maybe the SAM that hit the chopper was fired from an army base/perimeter protection unit. The IA SAM system may not compatibility with IAF IFF or must be some glitch on that day.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 29 Mar 2019 11:39

habal, i dont think IA has spyder....its all owned by iaf for airbase protection only.

syam · Post by **syam** » 29 Mar 2019 11:52

Also why these reports coming out now? Don't we know the missile fired when it was fired?

Better use some heavy mental filters while processing any news now. Quick reaction won't do any good to us.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 29 Mar 2019 12:38

The report talks of missile being fire but it doesn't say that it killed the mi 17.

So let's wait for the coi report to come out and then decide on the cause of loss.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 29 Mar 2019 13:07

If you reanalyse the pictures you will see a missile contrail and a whole in the tail of the aircraft similar to a missile hit.

Abhibhushan · Post by **Abhibhushan** » 29 Mar 2019 13:22

Habal wrote:

Maybe the SAM that hit the chopper was fired from an army base/perimeter protection unit. The IA SAM system may not compatibility with IAF IFF or must be some glitch on that day.

That my dear is a ver serious charge. Perhaps you may like to delete the post?

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 29 Mar 2019 13:37

shyamd wrote:If you reanalyse the pictures you will see a missile contrail and a whole in the tail of the aircraft similar to a missile hit.

I say that we don't know what caused the hole in the tail of the aircraft.

It will be determined by the COI and until then I would not want to comment on this painful episode.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 29 Mar 2019 14:52

the hole in the tail is not due to something hitting it

1. the hole is too neat and is coming out and not going in (Look at the metal around the hole)
2. the hole is in a narrow part of the airframe - a missile if radar guided will head for the main aircraft, if IR will head for the exhaust
3. if it had entered the tail - the missile would also explode - destroying much of the tail area

the most likely cause is something being wrenched out of the tail, like moving mechanical parts, could be post impact with the ground also

there is NO evidence that the Mi17 was HIT by a missile at this time

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 29 Mar 2019 15:04

under the tail boom is a tripod like structure about where the so called hole was.
it probably hit a tree or the ground and got wrenched off, creating the hole.

Mukesh.Kumar · Post by **Mukesh.Kumar** » 29 Mar 2019 21:20

Finally journos allowed into Balakot.

The journalists were taken on the tour on Thursday (29 March) and they proceeded to capture videos of the site. The report claimed that currently 300 students are present at the site which purportedly operated under the guise of a Madrasa. The zone is said to be protected by the frontier army of the Pakistani paramilitary force.

This guided tour by Pakistani authorities a month after the air strikes led many social media users to question whether the repair work at the site was finally complete.

Apologies if posted earlier.

dinesh_kimar · Post by **dinesh_kimar** » 29 Mar 2019 22:35

Apparently 2 Airstrikes carried out when Parrikar was DefMin.

The man had guts....

sudhan · Post by **sudhan** » 29 Mar 2019 22:46

Mukesh.Kumar wrote:Finally journos allowed into Balakot.

Apologies if posted earlier.

I guess the govt has been waiting for this, to release the proof it has been holding on to. The Govt pics will be the 'before' and journos pics would be the 'after repairs' pic.. Let's see what happens

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 30 Mar 2019 09:26

They must think white people are also inbred.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 30 Mar 2019 09:28

https://twitter.com/palepurshankar/stat ... 88288?s=19

Hari Nair · Post by **Hari Nair** » 30 Mar 2019 10:24

Our Old Man just quoted Bob Dylan !!

https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/newsindi ... spartanntp

-Thanks for posting the link! Good article by Gen Shankar:

ramana wrote:https://twitter.com/palepurshankar/stat ... 88288?s=19

VikasM · Post by **VikasM** » 30 Mar 2019 11:15

Hari Nair wrote:Our Old Man just quoted Bob Dylan !!
https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/newsindi ... spartanntp

-Thanks for posting the link! Good article by Gen Shankar:

ramana wrote:https://twitter.com/palepurshankar/stat ... 88288?s=19

OMG .. Like literally "Balakot proof is ‘blowin in the wind’"

yensoy · Post by **yensoy** » 30 Mar 2019 11:20

sudhan wrote:
Mukesh.Kumar wrote:Finally journos allowed into Balakot.
Apologies if posted earlier.
I guess the govt has been waiting for this, to release the proof it has been holding on to. The Govt pics will be the 'before' and journos pics would be the 'after repairs' pic.. Let's see what happens

I hope some journalist carried a blacklight/forensic light source. I am sure there will be a lot of tell-tale signs in the UV wavelengths.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 30 Mar 2019 12:24

Black box of Mi-17 chopper that crashed in Srinagar, goes missing

Mar 30, 2019,

New Delhi: The crucial black box, flight data recorder, of the Mi-17 helicopter that crashed near Budgam on February 27 killing six personnel on board, is missing and the Indian Air Force is searching for it.

“The black box has gone missing after the crash and we are trying to locate it. It is possible that it has been taken away by the hostile locals, who have taken away many other parts as well,” sources in the Air Force said.

manjgu · Post by **manjgu** » 30 Mar 2019 12:28

blast targetting CRPF convoy at Banihal pass !! another round

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 30 Mar 2019 12:30

Lalmohan wrote:the hole in the tail is not due to something hitting it

1. the hole is too neat and is coming out and not going in (Look at the metal around the hole)
2. the hole is in a narrow part of the airframe - a missile if radar guided will head for the main aircraft, if IR will head for the exhaust
3. if it had entered the tail - the missile would also explode - destroying much of the tail area

the most likely cause is something being wrenched out of the tail, like moving mechanical parts, could be post impact with the ground also

there is NO evidence that the Mi17 was HIT by a missile at this time

Tail guard

manjgu · Post by **manjgu** » 30 Mar 2019 12:32

looks like a cylinder blast in a car !!

Shivaji · Post by **Shivaji** » 30 Mar 2019 12:34

manjgu wrote:blast targetting CRPF convoy at Banihal pass !! another round

No casualties:
https://mobile.twitter.com/ahmedalifayy ... 1322188800

Today at 1040 hrs a Bus of CRPF 54 Bn( No. HR 66 8067) In Down convoy, was hit by a Santro from back. Car driver escaped. Santro was blown up. CRPF noticed uria, oil bottle, 1 LPG cylinder in Santro. 1 cylinder blasted. Rear windshield of the bus broken but no casualty

VikasM · Post by **VikasM** » 30 Mar 2019 12:37

I pray someone says Jaish. Needs an even bigger nail in its coffin.