Operation Balakot: News & Discussion

[Kashi]

In their view they are getting away with it. Remember Madame Unfair's book where she said that for Bakis, being able to survive to fight India is victory. They don't really care about the losses at the lower levels.

[mmasand]

Apart from this there was another VBIED attack attempt was thwarted. There are Paki handles talking about heavy Indian troop and hardware deployment along IB and LoC. Add to this, both IAF and IN have said they are still deployed and have not announced that ops are done officially. So why are Pakis taking a risk by attempting more attacks? Even they know that the Indian response to another major attack would likely be massive. Suicide mode or false bravado?

IAF remains deployed, if anything they're stepping up their game. I've picked up no less than 3 flights out of BOM of IL-76/78 and C-17's in the last 3 days, very very unusual for a city w/o any IAF presence.

[negi]

The only good thing IAF managed was Balakot strikes for this time one did not have usual excuse of hum to zameen asmaan hila denge lekin haat bandhe hue hain ; post Balakot our under-preparedness got exposed we salvaged the situation due to one man's bravery and not due to the system working as it should. A capable and prepared AF should have been able to take down the enemy fighters and it should not have come down to one man's act of actually chasing them inside the LoC for a close shot , whatever stories I read about we having jammed their missiles etc is akin to dodging someone's jab it only tells we escaped a blow (there too how much of it was paki systems going kaput or our systems doing their job is a detail no one knows about) , it does not speak about our ability to inflict any damage and that's even more concerning in light of the fact that we are dealing with a smaller and poorer AF , if this is how we deal with TSPAF in 2019 I can only imagine our lack of preparedness should things go sour with China.

[ks_sachin]

The only good thing IAF managed was Balakot strikes for this time one did not have usual excuse of hum to zameen asmaan hila denge lekin haat bandhe hue hain ; post Balakot our under-preparedness got exposed we salvaged the situation due to one man's bravery and not due to the system working as it should. A capable and prepared AF should have been able to take down the enemy fighters and it should not have come down to one man's act of actually chasing them inside the LoC for a close shot , whatever stories I read about we having jammed their missiles etc is akin to dodging someone's jab it only tells we escaped a blow (there too how much of it was paki systems going kaput or our systems doing their job is a detail no one knows about) , it does not speak about our ability to inflict any damage and that's even more concerning in light of the fact that we are dealing with a smaller and poorer AF , if this is how we deal with TSPAF in 2019 I can only imagine our lack of preparedness should things go sour with China.

How does your view square with Ramanas or Rohit Vats'?
Do you disagree with what they have written ?

[nachiket]

post Balakot our under-preparedness got exposed we salvaged the situation due to one man's bravery and not due to the system working as it should.

That is not true. WingCo Abhinandan shot down 1 F-16. Pakis had 23 other aircraft in the air but they were stopped from carrying out their strike on the intended target. The system did work. I hope you don't buy their excuse that they deliberately bombed uninhabited areas.

[negi]

Views are just that i.e. views ; I look at things from perspective of what a country like India should be doing as against doing post mortem of things based on assumptions or what gets out in media for I know for a fact not even half the details come out in public domain for a long time . When Kargil happened essentially what transpired is someone captured our territory and we fought a bloody war to get back what was ours one way to look at it would be to appreciate how hard it is to fight at altitude and disadvantage of fighting someone who is well dug up at the top but I don't do that for wars are not fought to gain sympathy for no one cares who was at disadvantage , wars are a huge investment they need to be fought for a clear outcome in mind and our mindset is pretty dumb we are happy to incur a huge cost both in terms of men and material just to get back what is ours , never have we fought a war to extract from enemy the price for forcing a war upon us . Even this skirmish is on exact same lines i.e. we were attacked , IAF managed to repulse an attack and we lost a fighter and so did the pakis but what we simply do not get is Pakis were ready to pay that price to inflict a damage upon us, for a bimaru country like TSP whose military is not even half ours in size or might I would say it was still a good outcome , what have we done here to give them a bloody nose or anything to ensure they will have to spend considerable time before they embark upon a similar misadventure ? No AAD/PAD/S400/ASAT test is going to be of any significance as long as one hesitates to throw a punch when in a streetfight .

[Aditya_V]

I think if some pics or videos of the downed F16 taken from POK could be acquired/ realeased or using US diplomatic pressure to state that during by annual physical verification 1 F16 missing .GOI seems to missing the importance of this.

[negi]

post Balakot our under-preparedness got exposed we salvaged the situation due to one man's bravery and not due to the system working as it should.

That is not true. WingCo Abhinandan shot down 1 F-16. Pakis had 23 other aircraft in the air but they were stopped from carrying out their strike on the intended target. The system did work. I hope you don't buy their excuse that they deliberately bombed uninhabited areas.

Err sire who stopped us from putting up 23*X (fill in your multiple) in air if numbers is what concerns you , also why are we brining up numbers here when we knew Balakot will evoke a response and secondly we are a bigger air force than TSP by quite a margin this is no Bollywood movie were hero has to be outnumbered to make a point . Coming to we stopped them from doing what they wanted to is a 'theory' , no one here or even in the IAF can claim to know exactly what their mission was it's a fact (not unless someone eves-dropped on their plan) . I can for one argue may be their intent was exactly this i.e. come close to LoC and pray and spray and whatever they hit would be a bonus , they got one of ours and we got one of theirs if people think this is a great outcome for a country of our capability then I am not arguing further on this matter .

[nachiket]

Err sire who stopped us from putting up 23*X (fill in your multiple) in air if numbers is what concerns you , also why are we brining up numbers here when we knew Balakot will evoke a response and secondly we are a bigger air force than TSP by quite a margin this is no Bollywood movie were hero has to be outnumbered to make a point .

Do you suggest that IAF keep a CAP of 20+ fighters in the air at all times? How do you know when and where the attack is coming from or how big it is going to be? Unfortunately distances and terrain are such that there is very little reaction time. That is just a geographical fact.

Coming to we stopped from doing what they wanted to is a theory , no one here or even in the IAF can claim to know exactly what their mission was . I can for one argue may be their intent was exactly this i.e. come close to LoC and prey and spray and whatever they hit would be a bonus , they got one of ours and we got one of theirs if people think this is a great outcome for a country of our capability then I am not arguing further on this matter .

You don't send in a 24 aircraft force brimming with PGM's to bomb trees.

I am not saying everything is hunky dory and there is no room for improvement. In an ideal world the Mig-21's would have been retired long back and we would have several squadrons of Rafale's and LCA's by now but we have to live in the real world. Nevertheless the attack was stopped. We would have loved to see a counterstrike on Skardu but that is a political question, of whether country is ready for full scale war which would immediately ensue.

[ks_sachin]

Err sire who stopped us from putting up 23*X (fill in your multiple) in air if numbers is what concerns you , also why are we brining up numbers here when we knew Balakot will evoke a response and secondly we are a bigger air force than TSP by quite a margin this is no Bollywood movie were hero has to be outnumbered to make a point .

Do you suggest that IAF keep a CAP of 20+ fighters in the air at all times? How do you know when and where the attack is coming from or how big it is going to be? Unfortunately distances and terrain are such that there is very little reaction time. That is just a geographical fact.

Coming to we stopped from doing what they wanted to is a theory , no one here or even in the IAF can claim to know exactly what their mission was . I can for one argue may be their intent was exactly this i.e. come close to LoC and prey and spray and whatever they hit would be a bonus , they got one of ours and we got one of theirs if people think this is a great outcome for a country of our capability then I am not arguing further on this matter .

You don't send in a 24 aircraft force brimming with PGM's to bomb trees.

I am not saying everything is hunky dory and there is no room for improvement. In an ideal world the Mig-21's would have been retired long back and we would have several squadrons of Rafale's and LCA's by now but we have to live in the real world. Nevertheless the attack was stopped. We would have loved to see a counterstrike on Skardu but that is a political question, of whether country is ready for full scale war which would immediately ensue.

Different points of view. Otherwise we resemble an echo chamber most times.

[Karan M]

Yeah Negi, its ok to be a maximalist but you are just argueing here for the sake of arguement.
I mean, the PAF have to be dunces to launch a 24 strike package and launch 11 Raptors, who knows what LGBs, 5 AMRAAMs and then we debate about "what is it that they wanted to do". Ermm... isn't it pretty obvious??

Second, the system worked and worked flawlessly to a large degree. 2x Su-30s dodge not 1, 2, 3 but 5 AMRAAMs. Again, this is a testament to the SOPs regarding BVR combat, and the drills these pilots went through, and for the SOPs again, all our decades of experience plus the past 15 years of going head to head with NATO operators in BVR.
The 2x Su-30 pilots were not picked from TACDE, they were regular guys. But when confronted with a BVR attack from an optimal speed/height favoring the opponent, they didn't make mistakes, but responded as they should have. It took decades of work to get the Su-30s into this sort of capability, including fixing all sorts of glitches in their system etc. We still have a ways to go to add more capability, but what we have today works.

Similarly, 2x Mirages hold off 4x times their number in BVR and the entire package breaks away because they can't fix the Mirage 2000s and prevent them from moving downwards. Again, this speaks volumes for the kind of forethinking and effort that went into pushing for an "expensive" Mirage upgrade by AHQ as versus the investment PAF put into some 100x JF-17s per reports, which have now been shown up in a real scenario.

Third, despite the AWACS not being there, IACCS in Punjab stepping in and directing the IAF fighter packages, again, was this a co-incidence? IAF radar coverage almost seamlessly taking over for the lack of AWACS and even managing to vector in the Bisons right into the F-16s which were thinking they could ambush the Su-30s? How many AF can claim this kind of competence?

Lastly, the tactics used by PAF were also from the "playbook". Firing BVR high, with platform supersonic, who hadn't debated it in the context of the F-22 etc. Here the PAF did the same, yet they couldn't land a telling blow. The PAF clearly sent their best, including instructor pilots to lead the strike, albeit were as risk averse as possible. They tried to overwhelm Indian interceptors, launch telling blows against our military infra.. none worked out.

The IAF response was a result of decades of hard work, heavy training creating SOPs drilled into the pilots and ground controllers regimen, and competence. The IACCS, ground based radars, ground controllers all didn't come just like that either. While there are huge gaps in our procurement system, and general attitude towards defence, its but gracious to acknowledge the effort that went into making a system that works.

Finally, what you are asking for, in terms of all out conflict, is not in our current interest to pursue. Why should India launch a war when its not prepared for it, or has not prepared for it to the max extent possible. Get your S-400s in service, Rafales into play, fix all gaps possible with inventory down to the last bullet, then wage war. And again, this is a political decision. If India can hit into Pakistan repeatedly, and Pakistan is forced to whittle away its resources.. why do we need open war? Not having a war is actually to our advantage.

[nachiket]

I understand the frustration. Even I believe that eventually, we will have to launch an all out attack in PoK, ground and air, and move the LoC to make a real difference. Balakot type strikes are not going to stop Pulwama type attacks. But they were a necessary first step in showing that there will be consequences and next time things may get out of hand. I don't think India was ready to go to war over Pulwama, but it could have very well happened, and pakis will have to take that into account from now on since they are even less ready for war. An element of unpredictability is always good.

[negi]

There has to be consistency in what one is arguing for or against; let me re-iterate this , what does PAF need to do for us to say we have been attacked ? Land a LGB on India gate ? Take out a BSF camel or the way I see it if someone is using a PGM and it enters our airspace and lands on our soil for any country that's an act of aggression , in this case should we have waited for PGM to land on some valuable asset to say oh now we consider their attack as being worthy of being responded to ?

Now let me take this further may be to forums members here, a PGM landing on trees within our national limits is ok , well how do you know that for Paki leadership death of some bodies on hire in lieu of lives of 40 CRPF men is still a fair price .

Why does our threshold for tolerating attacks on our territory be so high ? If this was some big bully a more capable power that was troubling us I would have probably bought the excuse of ham se na ho paega but I simply don't get our mindset.

As for me being a maximalist that's a subjective thing I am not calling for wiping TSP from map of this world ; all I am saying is given how others in the world respond when attacked we always seem to find an excuse to not conclude a fight.

[harish_ch]

I agree with Negi sir that the final outcome is not favorable to us. It is great that we repulsed thier attack and downed their F16. But as a jingo I expected that we would respond to this aggression by PAF and give them a bloody nose. Sad that it didn't happen.

A stalemate with China would have been a good outcome, not with Pakis.

The fact that they sent 24 aircraft brimming with PGMs to attack us should have resulted in a much stronger and punishing me response from us.

[Karan M]

Negi, I reiterate:

Finally, what you are asking for, in terms of all out conflict, is not in our current interest to pursue. Why should India launch a war when its not prepared for it, or has not prepared for it to the max extent possible. Get your S-400s in service, Rafales into play, fix all gaps possible with inventory down to the last bullet, then wage war. And again, this is a political decision. If India can hit into Pakistan repeatedly, and Pakistan is forced to whittle away its resources.. why do we need open war? Not having a war is actually to our advantage.

I have a simple question - is India prepared for a war? In short, is te average Indian willing to vote for a Govt that prioritizes national defence above all, and then goes all-out to procure, train, sustain a high-tempo military for an-all out conflict? That means no this yojana, that subsidy, this freebie. Is the Indian public ok with that? And the risk of nuclear conflict, and all it entails?

If not, then you have to be ok with what GOI is currently doing, which is expanding the sub-nuclear threshold and retaliation options short of all out war.

War can still come, but at least the more time you have, more you can prep and induct capabilities which can help you. Wait till the S-4xx arrive by 2023 and the Rafales arrive and some of the key enhancements to our fleet get into play. Because the more time passes, the differential in our favor increases. We are spending more than they are, and the results have started showing up. They are coasting on the huge FMS spend they got during the Afghan -US intervention.

The main aim is to hit back in a manner which is to our advantage.

[nachiket]

Even if all that new equipment was already present, an all out war will mean significant losses in men, material and economic pain. Are people ready for that? After 26/11 they might have been. After Pulwama, I am not sure. Just being realistic here, not to demean the martyrdom of the CRPF jawans.

[negi]

I think that's why I put an emphasis on mindset , until strikes in Myanmar and Uri happened on this very forum people said oh we cannot escalate , economy will go down, unkil will put sanction some even claimed Pakistan might respond with nukes. What I am trying to say is first intent matters once we decide a price has to be extracted one can then further plan as to how to go about it in a manner where you can cut your losses . When we decided to execute Balakot I am sure people at the top knew that it would evoke a response now my reading is it was deemed ok to simply deflect an attack and be content with that , it is that mindset I am questioning . Men in the forces are not the ones shying away from doing what needs to be done it is the analysis paralysis types in upper echelons of services and MoD that have given TSP more encouragement than the average joe on the road with same government machinery and same forces the current PMO sanctioned strikes we had same M2K, MKIs , Bisons during 26/11 too , it's all about intent.

[Karan M]

Negi, I still don't understand why you want us to play into the opponents hands by having an all out war right now. I mean, we don't hit them as hard as we can (we are still re-equipping) and second, we have more to gain from keeping a hot peace ongoing. Attrition on the LOC, pressure on their economy and now, hitting their terrorists in Pakistan.. what's not to like? I mean I wouldn't be surprised, if Modi, Doval, NSAB & the service chiefs were chortling with glee.
We kill some 300 + jihadis (we still don't know the casualty figures or details in the other 2 locations struck), IAF deters the PAF with minimal loss & likely gets an assurance from GOI about accelerated modernisation, we get our pilot back and knock down a F-16 for the loss of an old MiG-21.. its actually played out to the Indian script exactly as we wanted. Meanwhile we continue to make the Pak economy bleed and keep knocking down their people on the LOC.

All this without an all-out war.

Also, there is a huge leftist 5th column in India which is always ready for accomodation at all costs and bleating against any "military misadventure". Add selfish behavior ingrained into many people ("kashmir de do, humare rishtedar wapas lao") + media frenzy, and its not hard to figure out why even tough politicians have to think twice before taking harsh measures. It will take time before the general public starts thinking above RKM and about the "tukde tukde gang mindset".

So doing all this silently without the above crowd intervening, is to our advantage as well. Can you imagine the pro Pak propaganda from our left leaning media if they learn the details about some of our IA's "javabi karwahee" on the LOC.

[negi]

Karan as I said it's about perspectives, to me draining Pak's economic wealth and pushing them into a corner is something we should be anyways doing . It should not need a Pulawama to happen for us to say we have other ways to make them pay . As for coming to left or people actually this was a good time , call what you will Indians do unite at times of war it is a bad thing to say however if decision to fight a war in this country has to be based on "log kya kahenge" then this was a good time.

[Kashi]

After 26/11 they might have been.

Unlikely. Just a few months after Kargil, the "people" were protesting outside PM's residence calling for the release of terrorists in exchange for hijacked passengers.

The outcome of LS elections just 6 months after 26/11 are well known.

[Kashi]

Karan as I said it's about perspectives, to me draining Pak's economic wealth and pushing them into a corner is something we should be anyways doing . It should not need a Pulawama to happen for us to say we have other ways to make them pay . As for coming to left or people actually this was a good time , call what you will Indians do unite at times of war it is a bad thing to say however if decision to fight a war in this country has to be based on "log kya kahenge" then this was a good time.

But that's exactly what we have shied away from doing so far, on one pretext or another. Chiefly nukes and what not. Do remember the oft-repeated phrase "A stable and prosperous Pakistan is in our interest". Till recently, this was the staple of policy making in North and South Block not to mention PMO.

Regarding the unity of people- Kargil and Kandahar were not so long ago.

[negi]

After 26/11 they might have been.

Unlikely. Just a few months after Kargil, the "people" were protesting outside PM's residence calling for the release of terrorists in exchange for hijacked passengers.

The outcome of LS elections just 6 months after 26/11 are well known.

Because the PM was himself of their ilk.

[Karan M]

Karan as I said it's about perspectives, to me draining Pak's economic wealth and pushing them into a corner is something we should be anyways doing . It should not need a Pulawama to happen for us to say we have other ways to make them pay . As for coming to left or people actually this was a good time , call what you will Indians do unite at times of war it is a bad thing to say however if decision to fight a war in this country has to be based on "log kya kahenge" then this was a good time.

Negi, "we" on BRF are not India, is all I am saying. 90% of our politicians, bar a rare few believe so firmly in appeasement that to them, treating TSP like that is also std policy. Draining TSP wealth and pushing them into a corner is a refreshing change. If that tactic doesn't work, we should look at the next step and so forth. We are always accused of being "chunkian earth-e-shaster eebil brummun bunniyas" who scheme, are machiavellian and ready with a knife for the poor Pakjabi. Time to act like it, methinks.

[rkhanna]

Karan as I said it's about perspectives, to me draining Pak's economic wealth and pushing them into a corner is something we should be anyways doing . It should not need a Pulawama to happen for us to say we have other ways to make them pay . As for coming to left or people actually this was a good time , call what you will Indians do unite at times of war it is a bad thing to say however if decision to fight a war in this country has to be based on "log kya kahenge" then this was a good time.

But that's exactly what we have shied away from doing so far, on one pretext or another. Chiefly nukes and what not. Do remember the oft-repeated phrase "A stable and prosperous Pakistan is in our interest". Till recently, this was the staple of policy making in North and South Block not to mention PMO.

Regarding the unity of people- Kargil and Kandahar were not so long ago.

Dont need to fight a war right off the bat

As an Act of Parliament:

Step 1 Declaring Pakistan as a State Sponsor of Terrorism
Step 2 Declare Pakistani Army and its affliates (ISI etc) as terrorist organizations.
Step 3 Impose Sanctions on above said terrorist Organization - Any Organization and/or Country that does business with the above will have 30 days to leave India - Indian Govt will take over assets of any such entity (ala Indira Gandhi eshtyle)
Step 4 Any Foreign Direct Investment going into Pakistan will be subject to Due Diligence from India if Similar Source wants to Invest in India
Step 5 Any Foreign Country who has issues should be told to stay away from interfering in the Laws of India - we democracy after all

Above "Act" in Parliament can have the precondition that all such sanctions will be removed once Pakistan has been cleansed of Terrorist Infrastructure - Such Cleansing will be done by China/USA/KSA monitored and ratified by India.

[ArjunPandit]

negi sir, I respect your view points. But my view on this is that this govt is fighting a war and doesnt mind losing some small perception battles. The big war comprise of the following objectives
1. Preciptate Implosion of pakistan at lowest cost
2. Neutralize/Minimize the threat to Indian economic centers
3. Build public opinion in India's favor so that when the facade falls not many shed a tear

Now for first, we have embarked on a 90s style long drawn wearing operations. The diff from 90s would be it's intensity, political stability (possibly) and the leap India has economically and militarily. We will tighten the grip on them like a python. Multiple fronts will be opened inlcuding balochistan, afghanistan and Iran. Now all this can't be done fast because of so many moving pieces in international stage.
My current political inclinations aside, I think this is the right way by any govt

[Aditya_V]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 685429.cms

Seven Pakistani posts across the LoC were destroyed

DGISPR claiming 3 casualties meaning atleast 30 are dead.

[schinnas]

There is lot of chatter of India taking abandoned Paki BOPs in tactically advantageous positions and not letting Pakis take it back. This is along LoC, whether we will only be getting back our land, not across IB.

If there is any truth to it, it signals a new policy of making Pakistan lose land for every act or terrorism or CFV that harms Indian life (civilian or military).

While India wouldn't announce it officially, neither will Pakis acknowledge it.

Perhaps this explains massive army buildup on both sides including heavy guns and armored regiments.

Now Pakis have asked people to vacate several areas of PoK close to LoC indicating they will try mighty hard to get their positions back.

One thing is clear. There is no going back from here. However for this strategic shift in approach to bear fruit, there needs to be continuity of leadership after May 23rd.

[Vivasvat]

Reuters: Facebook, Twitter sucked into India-Pakistan information war.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-indi ... SKCN1RE18N

Excerpts:

Pakistani social media campaigner *Hanzala Tayyab leads about 300 ultra-nationalist cyber warriors fighting an internet war with arch-foe India*

Tayyab, 24, spends his days on Facebook and encrypted WhatsApp chatrooms organizing members of his Pakistan Cyber Force group to promote anti-India content and make it go viral, including on Twitter where he has more than 50,000 followers.

That ranges from highlighting alleged Indian human rights abuses to lionizing insurgents battling Indian security forces in Kashmir

This online battle of political and ideological narratives is one that Pakistan’s military believes it must win at all costs

cyber armies work directly either for Pakistan’s military or civilian state organizations, acting as de facto proxies or militias in the online battlefields.

[Aditya G]

Sorry but in the current escalation it was IAF who landed the first punch (on 26th) and successfully defended itself (on 27th). Pakistan is the one with a bloody nose.

We are the aggressors here and IAF executed the political objective quite well so I don't understand the rona dhona.

This is not a street brawl with a fight to the finish.

There has to be consistency in what one is arguing for or against; let me re-iterate this , what does PAF need to do for us to say we have been attacked ? Land a LGB on India gate ? Take out a BSF camel or the way I see it if someone is using a PGM and it enters our airspace and lands on our soil for any country that's an act of aggression , in this case should we have waited for PGM to land on some valuable asset to say oh now we consider their attack as being worthy of being responded to ?

Now let me take this further may be to forums members here, a PGM landing on trees within our national limits is ok , well how do you know that for Paki leadership death of some bodies on hire in lieu of lives of 40 CRPF men is still a fair price .

Why does our threshold for tolerating attacks on our territory be so high ? If this was some big bully a more capable power that was troubling us I would have probably bought the excuse of ham se na ho paega but I simply don't get our mindset.

As for me being a maximalist that's a subjective thing I am not calling for wiping TSP from map of this world ; all I am saying is given how others in the world respond when attacked we always seem to find an excuse to not conclude a fight.

[ArjunPandit]

Anyone willing to bet that a war will come in 2022? I will bet for summers.

[chetak]

HM militant involved in bid to repeat Pulwama-like attack arrested

JAMMU, Apr 1

Police today arrested Hizbul Mujahideen militant, who had attempt to repeat Pulwama like fidayeen attack on para-military CRPF convoy near Banihal on Saturday when he was trying to escape towards Kashmir in a tipper. He has confessed that he had been tasked to trigger the blast by ramming car into the convoy of security forces.

Addressing a press conference tonight, Director General of Police (DGP) Dilbag Singh, accompanied by IGP Jammu MK Sinha and DIG Doda-Ramban Range, Bhim Sen Tooty, said security forces and police were maintaining high alert all along the National Highway after the failed attempt of the militants to repeat Pulwama like attack.

Click here to watch press conference video


The militant, he said, appeared on the National Highway near Banihal late last evening and took lift in a tipper on way to Kashmir. However, alert naka parties apprehended him after spotting burn marks over his body as there had been reports that the militant had sustained minor burn injuries in the blast before fleeing from the spot.

Lauding police parties, Dilbag said it was great success for the police that the militant was arrested within 36 hours of the incident.

The police chief identified the militant as Owais Amin son of Mohammad Amin Rather, a resident of Vehil, Chatta Waran in Shopian district of South Kashmir.

Dilbag confirmed that it was a fidayeen attack on the para-military convoy.

He said a total of two blasts were planned in the car. When the first blast took place, the militant sustained minor injuries and ran away.

Dilbag Singh said first blast was minor and the second didn’t occur as the LPG cylinders, IED didn’t explode. He added that a Study Group has been constituted to submit report including steps required to strengthen mechanism to avert such incidents.

The militant told reporters that he had been assigned the task of pressing button near convoy of security forces. Asked whether he pressed the button by sitting inside the car, he replied in positive.

He had sustained minor injuries in the blast.

The DGP said further investigations in the case were on.

Meanwhile, police have registered a case under Sections 307/120-B, 121, 121-A, 124-A-RPC, 4/5 Explosive Substances Act and 16/18/20 UAPA at Banihal police station against the militant.

Police said the car contained explosive and inflammable substances including more than 50 gelatin sticks (Super power 90), urea, sulphur, ammonium nitrate, two bottles petrol, two LPG cylinders and one live fabricated IED in a tiffin carrier.

Meanwhile, police sources said, sustained interrogation of the militant was on to get details about his handler and other clues.

It may be mentioned here that the militant had tried to blast the car close to the CRPF convoy near Banihal in Ramban district on Jammu-Srinagar National Highway. The car caught fire and was gutted but there was narrow escape of the CRPF jawans, travelling in a convoy of 33 vehicles.

[UlanBatori]

So everything worked: except that the bum did not boom but instead just went "phut" and flared. Troubling about the working of convoy security. Also suggests that Balakote was not deterrent enough. Or maybe they could not get their ace bum-cook to wire it up properly.

Anyway, now what? Many dins still left for election...

[ramana]

negi, What is the real problem?
I know you better to take on the role of members like during Kargil war who were constantly berating Gen Malik and the NDA govt. They too claimed it was out of frustration that India could do more but did not do so.
We don't know all the factors in play.
Given that IAF is fighting the war they were ordered to.
And by all accounts they negated the 24 planes strike force.
And hit Balakot JEM training facility.
And caused KSA to withdraw their nukes.
And hit the bunker/magazine with Brahmos.

So why this frustration?
You know Pulwama attack happend right afte last day of Lok Sabha.
Govt is essentially lame duck.
Yet Balakot retaliation did happened.
Nowshera riposte was blunted.
Election Laws don't allow more unless TSP invades with ground forces.
You saw a slew of Opposition weasels question Pulwama and Balakot.
Big patriot/defence reporters were posting pictures of Wg Cdr Abhinandan in captivity before his family could be informed.
Our own website contributed to providing details of his service history with out any remorse.

[sudeepj]

The only good thing IAF managed was Balakot strikes for this time one did not have usual excuse of hum to zameen asmaan hila denge lekin haat bandhe hue hain ; post Balakot our under-preparedness got exposed we salvaged the situation due to one man's bravery and not due to the system working as it should. A capable and prepared AF should have been able to take down the enemy fighters and it should not have come down to one man's act of actually chasing them inside the LoC for a close shot , whatever stories I read about we having jammed their missiles etc is akin to dodging someone's jab it only tells we escaped a blow (there too how much of it was paki systems going kaput or our systems doing their job is a detail no one knows about) , it does not speak about our ability to inflict any damage and that's even more concerning in light of the fact that we are dealing with a smaller and poorer AF , if this is how we deal with TSPAF in 2019 I can only imagine our lack of preparedness should things go sour with China.

I am sorry, but this thesis is rubbish. As explained capably by Rohit & serving/ex fighter pilots, our system worked as per design and PAF had to suffer a mission kill as well as the loss of one platform. The only fly in the ointment was the unfortunate fratricide of the chopper, which will be rectified on a ASAP basis. The IAF comes out with flying colors in this skirmish.

It can be argued that further escalation beyond what has already happened would have initiated a war against Pakistan itself and not terrorism/jihadis that seems to be the stated policy of the Indian govt. I happen to think that a war against terrorism without going to war against Pakistani Armed forces is simply impossible, but I dont think the world is ready for that conclusion yet.

Its a given, that at this point in time, a full war would cause several thousand Indian lives and a potentially catastrophic outcome in the loss of an Indian city or two. Its easy to fulminate about aar-paar on a forum, impossible to commit to a course of action the results of which can not be predicted. War is an exceedingly dangerous and complex endeavor, you do not simply jump in without a preponderance in firepower.

At least internally, there is a section of influential people who have decided that war with Pakistan is now not only inevitable, but desirable. I think we prepare for a few years and launch in the winter/spring of 2020-2021.

[ramana]

So everything worked: except that the bum did not boom but instead just went "phut" and flared. Troubling about the working of convoy security. Also suggests that Balakote was not deterrent enough. Or maybe they could not get their ace bum-cook to wire it up properly.

Anyway, now what? Many dins still left for election...

Troubling is the 50 sticks of gelignite which is a modern form of dynamite. That's a lot of explosive.
Rest is extra. Look at many explosive materials and incendiaries included petrol, sulfur, Ammonium Nitrate and Urea.
So how did the terrorist get the explosives and who assembled the package

SuperPower 90 is commercial blasting explosive for road building etc.

And what is this small bomb and big bomb?
And note IED in Tiffin Carrier.
Looks like a new tactics.

Kudos to J&K Police for catching the fellow alive.

[Singha]

https://twitter.com/MughalAmiruddin/sta ... 8776562688

evacuation plans are in place for POK civilians

[Vivek K]

If UPA had taken similar action after Mumbai, similar appreciation would have been accorded. Govt walks a tightrope balancing needs and demands. All of us tried to accept UPA's failure to launch. This government has established a calibrated response system where the Pukis will know the scale of response. This dynamic did not exist for several years leading to several attacks on India.

So the efficacy of the response should be measured by the fact that the fact that the Govt took decisive action and the IAF's ability vis-s-vis Pukis measured by their ability to fly in and back without a scratch. The Mig was lost through aggressive defense and shot down a precious Puki asset. Loss of one (newer) F16 by PAF is like IAF losing an entire squadron of MKIs.

Now India has introduced a war of attrition on the Pukis to make them weaker economically. So things seem to be on track.

[sudeepj]

Yeah Negi, its ok to be a maximalist but you are just argueing here for the sake of arguement.
I mean, the PAF have to be dunces to launch a 24 strike package and launch 11 Raptors, who knows what LGBs, 5 AMRAAMs and then we debate about "what is it that they wanted to do". Ermm... isn't it pretty obvious??

Second, the system worked and worked flawlessly to a large degree. 2x Su-30s dodge not 1, 2, 3 but 5 AMRAAMs. Again, this is a testament to the SOPs regarding BVR combat, and the drills these pilots went through, and for the SOPs again, all our decades of experience plus the past 15 years of going head to head with NATO operators in BVR.
The 2x Su-30 pilots were not picked from TACDE, they were regular guys. But when confronted with a BVR attack from an optimal speed/height favoring the opponent, they didn't make mistakes, but responded as they should have. It took decades of work to get the Su-30s into this sort of capability, including fixing all sorts of glitches in their system etc. We still have a ways to go to add more capability, but what we have today works.

I think the Pakistani expectation was that IAF planes would run away seeing their large strike/escort package just as their fighters did when Balakote was struck. But IAF didnt, and our Muchhad went in a freaking Mig21 and broke their F16.. Then made the Paki Air Marshal serve him tea... Borrowed the Air Marshal's phone and called his wife.. Came back to India, was greeted with a beer at Wagah and had this message for his F16 bunnies..

[souravB]

Troubling is the 50 sticks of gelignite which is a modern form of dynamite. That's a lot of explosive.
Rest is extra. Look at many explosive materials and incendiaries included petrol, sulfur, Ammonium Nitrate and Urea.
So how did the terrorist get the explosives and who assembled the package
--snip--

Ramana sir it is quite easy to get the explosives brought in via Nepal in small quantities which has an open border with Bihar or UP. The Land mafias or Bahubalis in those region can be bought for money or quid pro quo help during elections to smoothen the affair. Some of the Bahubalis are pretty sympathetic to the jehadi cause and would let the packages pass without batting an eyelid. Rest of the stuff can also easily be arranged by them from nearby mining operations which they themselves control, so no way to trace.
Nowadays having a road line to Cheen/Tibet via POK aka CPEC has made the operation more cost effective+ virtually risk free.

[Rudradev]

Thinking like a Paki:

What are the odds that some major terrorist attack will happen against civilians *in Pakistan* near or during India's election season?

A SVBIED in a crowded city center maybe, but just enough "evidence will be recovered" to show that it was (gasp) Hindu Terrorists who committed the attack. Severed hand with red thread around wrist, maybe. Copy of Bhagvad Gita conveniently lying nearby.

Many things will be triggered:

1) All-out campaign by usual suspects in India that Modi not only whitewashes and exonerates "Hindu Terrorists" (Samjhauta case) but actually sponsors them to commit mass-murder against innocent civilians in Pakistan. Whatever minority votes BJP/NDA was going to get will be polarized towards the opposition.

2) Huge reprisal against Pakistani Hindus by Tanzeems who were just waiting for the word. Thousands of deaths, rapes, home-burnings, etc. And Indian Media will be highlighting that it is all the Hindutvavadi Modi govt's fault that Hindus elsewhere are in peril of their lives.

3) Unlike a terrorist attack by jihadis against Indian targets, this incident will not have the effect of rallying people to Modi as a national leader. Rather, fence-sitting Indian voters may decide Modi is a dangerous fanatical warmonger who is already turning India into Hindu Pakistan and will bring disaster to Sooth Asia by fomenting terrorism.

4) Also, unlike a terrorist attack on India, a terrorist attack within Pakistan will give India no opportunity for a Balakot-type response. Moreover, it will be broadcast to international capitals to promote a fabricated image that Pakistanis are as much victims of "Hindu terror" under Modi as Indians were ever victims of Pakistan-sponsored jihadi terrorism. This may to whatever extent abrogate the international isolation of Pakistan, and overall sympathy for the Indian position, that characterized the post-Balakot diplomatic environment.