MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

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mmasand
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by mmasand »

^ Deterrence means they don't take off from their airbases. Nearly two decades of rot takes a long time to reverse and play catch up. I'm sure the alarm bells have been ringing non-stop in South Block since 27th Feb.
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by Karan M »

Prasad wrote:Part of your calculation is based on the assumption that they can put all their F-16s in the air. Massed missile strikes on day 0 and thereafter, even before IAF gets into the act with fighter delivered munitions can render them handicapped no?
I am envisaging us fighting as we did at Kargil and now on Feb27th, limited war with strikes on mainland Pakistan and support elements off of the table.
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by Karan M »

mmasand wrote:^ Deterrence means they don't take off from their airbases. Nearly two decades of rot takes a long time to reverse and play catch up. I'm sure the alarm bells have been ringing non-stop in South Block since 27th Feb.
That too is true.
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by manjgu »

Karan M bhai ...on a lighter note when i was talking of overwhelimg superiority u/Hnair dismissed the concept.. and how rot has taken place....and now u agreeing to " Deterrence means they don't take off from their airbases. Nearly two decades of rot takes a long time to reverse and play catch up. I'm sure the alarm bells have been ringing non-stop in South Block since 27th Feb." I doubt if South Block ever wakes up...
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by manjgu »

when are PAF F 16's retiring...a real problem in making for PAF.. they will get chinese replacements onlee ?
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by manjgu »

sorry... also how long will the AMRAAM's be operational in PAF service? wont their expiry in a way signal end of F 16?? missiles have a much shorter shelf life than planes !
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by Karan M »

manjgu wrote:Karan M bhai ...on a lighter note when i was talking of overwhelimg superiority u/Hnair dismissed the concept.. and how rot has taken place....and now u agreeing to " Deterrence means they don't take off from their airbases. Nearly two decades of rot takes a long time to reverse and play catch up. I'm sure the alarm bells have been ringing non-stop in South Block since 27th Feb." I doubt if South Block ever wakes up...
Sirji please understand the limited war constraints we are talking of. You cant attack their bases with Brahmos. You cant blow up ammo dumps. You cant chase them into Pakistan. It means fighting with one hand behind the back. In an all out conflict we will be much more free to maneuver. However, even there airframe numbers matter to hunt down MRBM/IRBM. If you add this additional responsibility to IAF, then they need those 40 squadrons. Otherwise even with 32 and S400 we still have an edge per IAF as they plan to use it to free up aircraft for strike.

The IAF sees in the S-400 an answer to its shrinking fighter strength. It has 33 squadrons against a sanctioned strength of 39.squadrons and even this number is likely to shrink to 19 by 2027 when 14 squadrons of MiG-21, MiG-27 and MiG-29 aircraft are retired. The last batch of 18 Su-30 MKI fighters are rolling off the production lines of HAL's Nashik factory. The only acquisition on the horizon in the short term are 36 Rafales from France to be delivered by 2021. "That's what makes the deployment of the S-400 an absolute necessity," a senior IAF officer says. "The missile will free up our multi-role fighters to do other tasks like air-to-ground missions instead of being tied up in the air superiority role. In his deposition before the standing committee chairman, the IAF's Vice Chief of Air Staff Air Vice Marshal S.B. Deo said the system would 'substantially change our posture, both towards the adversary in the Northern Front as well as the one on the Western Front'.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.indiat ... 2018-08-06

Not quite right about only 36 Rafales. We have 103 Tejas also being inducted.

Also in the scenario we are talking of, deploying a LRSAM is not without risk especially if you have own aircraft in the air. Plus add terrain. The IAF will mostly use these missiles, I suspect, to mission kill or reduce the impact of the Erieyes, which stay 150km into Pak and peek 200km into India. By putting a S400 battery 50 km from the border (its mobile and can relocate), we can push the Erieyes almost 300 km back. They can only look 50km into India and become defensive systems, unable to coordinate attacks into India. That's the true value of the S400.
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by Karan M »

manjgu wrote:when are PAF F 16's retiring...a real problem in making for PAF.. they will get chinese replacements onlee ?
Another 20-30 years depending on airframe type. A/Bs first
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by Karan M »

manjgu wrote:sorry... also how long will the AMRAAM's be operational in PAF service? wont their expiry in a way signal end of F 16?? missiles have a much shorter shelf life than planes !
I suspect these missiles were stored carefully and they will def. Have a life extension plan in progress. We keep old Russian stock around the same way, working with OEM to swap components, batteries. Propellant decay is the real concern.
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by VikramA »

manjgu wrote:when are PAF F 16's retiring...a real problem in making for PAF.. they will get chinese replacements onlee ?
By 2026-2030 paf will start receiving FC 31 at least 40 in number. Why do you think IAF ordered s400. BMD is only one of the reasons for ordering s400
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by gakakkad »

VikramA wrote:
manjgu wrote:when are PAF F 16's retiring...a real problem in making for PAF.. they will get chinese replacements onlee ?
By 2026-2030 paf will start receiving FC 31 at least 40 in number. Why do you think IAF ordered s400. BMD is only of the reasons for ordering s400
By 2030 indian defense budget will exceed pakee gdp.
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by Rahul M »

VikramA wrote:
manjgu wrote:when are PAF F 16's retiring...a real problem in making for PAF.. they will get chinese replacements onlee ?
By 2026-2030 paf will start receiving FC 31 at least 40 in number. Why do you think IAF ordered s400. BMD is only one of the reasons for ordering s400
first let them acquire the cheapest 4Gen single engined fighter china inducted in 2003, the J-10. we will talk about the J-31 after that.
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by VikramA »

Rahul M wrote:
VikramA wrote:
By 2026-2030 paf will start receiving FC 31 at least 40 in number. Why do you think IAF ordered s400. BMD is only one of the reasons for ordering s400
first let them acquire the cheapest 4Gen single engined fighter china inducted in 2003, the J-10. we will talk about the J-31 after that.
Going by the logic of 'defense ' analysts that grace paki news channels the idea is that Pakis already have a single engine MRCA in the form of jf-17. So they want to acquire a twin engine MRCA in the form of fc 31
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by Singha »

Even pakis seem unsure of the real tw ration of jf17

Russians are makinf merry selling them engines
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by Karan M »

Rahul M wrote: first let them acquire the cheapest 4Gen single engined fighter china inducted in 2003, the J-10. we will talk about the J-31 after that.
Good memory y'olde pirate.
Yeah whatever happened to the much vaunted J10s they supposedly bought? 36-40 J-10s etc?

And it's not just the S400 that can hunt down low RCS targets. Both the Akash and MRSAM can take on low RCS targets, though of course the S400 can do so from a longer distance.


16. MRSAM.On completion of successful Verification Firing Tests of MRSAM system by DRDO, IAF is in the process of inducting these systems. MRSAM is capable of engaging targets from extreme low altitude to high altitude and very close range to medium ranges. This extremely capable Area Air Defence weapon networked in the modern IACCS system of IAF would defeat all types of hostile targets, including those with extremely low RCS, even in a dense jamming environment.
http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease. ... lid=174471
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by Karan M »

In the we can hope section we have:
ashthor wrote:http://www.businesstoday.in/current/eco ... 26863.html
Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said on Tuesday that India needs a bigger defence budget to modernise its armed forces during the next six-seven years.
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by krish.pf »

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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by rohitvats »

When we discuss IAF versus PAF in terms of numbers, the basic numbers don't give the correct picture. Because even with reduced squadron strength, IAF can create massively disproportionate force ration in almost all their strike packages into Pakistan.

Consider this - More than 50% of PAF strength comprises of F-7P and Mirage-III and Mirage-V. Of these, F-7P are point defense fighters with only WVR missile. While Mirage-III and Mirage-V are optimized for ground attack.

Like our Mig-21 Bison squadrons, F-7P will be the first line of air-defense against any Indian strike package. However, PAF very well knows that they can't hold against anything from our side. So, it will have to distribute F-16 and JF-17 for air-defense duties. Both, on ORP (Operation Readiness Platforms) and Combat Air Patrol.

When it comes to F-16, PAF has to strike a balance between deploying them for air defense, combat air patrols and strike. And while I don't doubt that PAF F-16 pilots/squadrons train to a high standard to switch between roles and generate high sortie rates (American products are very good at this part) - there is still only handful of F-16 that they have.

India ace up the sleeve is Su-30 MKI - we've almost equivalent number of entire Pakistan Air Force! Not to mention that against ~175 odd F-16 and JF-17, we've 500+ fighters in same or superior class. Not counting Rafale and Tejas.

IAF has already shown its sophistication at battle space management and managing complex air-battles.

In any future conflict, I expect IAF to actually call out PAF fighters on air-defense duties for aerial combat, like we did in 1965 and 1971 war. And only fighter in PAF service which can actually join in the battle is F-16.

Considering the performance of their JF-17 against our upgraded Mirage-2000s recently, these fighters are most likely to be used in A2G role in Forward Edge of Battle Areas (FEBA), rather than deep strike. And augment F-7P in point defense role to increase the nuisance value and offer some resistance.

An important aspect in PAF's favor is Pakistan's geography.

I expect PAF to concentrate their prime assets in two broad geographical areas -

(a) Central Punjab: With Sargodha as the fulcrum, the core F-16 can be deployed to cover areas 200 Km towards north (Rawalpindi) and south (Multan - home to their most powerful strike corps for desert). While Sargodha is well defended, F-16s can go back and forth between major, minor and satellite bases to save the Pakistani heartland

(2) Sindh (Hyderabad-Karachi): PAF will have to base assets here as any shooting match between India and Pakistan will be highly intensive in the first week. While PAF can move resources north-south, that can only happen in case planned efforts. For initial phases of air war, when IAF will be looking to break-open the door, there will have to be F-16 fighters based in this region to tackle IAF onslaught.

In fact, If I remember correctly, when the discussion about PAF pilot downed on 27th February was happening, Pakistani handles were mentioning that the said squadron of F-16 (No. 9, I think) is based in Bholari and trains for Air Defense duties.

You can look up the base here: 25°14'42.6"N 68°01'59.2"E

This is located south-west of Pakistani Hyderabad. It is a modern, very large air base with two long parallel runways.

It is my considered opinion that this base will be the nerve center of air-operations in desert and southern Sindh and will play the same role as Sargodha does for north/central Punjab.

One final point - I see Pakistan Army's armored and mechanized assets in Desert Sector coming under immense air to ground pressure from IAF. And I seriously doubt PAF's ability to provide them sustained top-cover or undertake ground attacks in support of land campaign objectives.

Also, as recent air battle shows, PAF actually cannot hide their fighters taking off their air-bases; the lack of strategic depth will come to bite them the most in air warfare. With increasing radar density, not to mention most of them now being 3D and 4D AESA, and IACCS, IAF will be able to use its numerical superiority in a major way.

BTW - here's a homework for some lazy bums here: Take a squadron of Mig-21 Bison in A2G role (100% serviceability, 18 aircraft), calculate what kind of load it carry for a 150 km A2G mission and now, evaluate how many Su-30 MKI can do the job!
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by manjgu »

1) didnt get ur points which seems contradictory "An important aspect in PAF's favor is Pakistan's geography." and " the lack of strategic depth will come to bite them the most in air warfare " isnt depth a part of their geography? 2) PAF after 1965 has been a defensive air force. with limited resources they will focus on defending only ( husbanding their resources) ..no big raids inside Indian air space. they will fight within their limitation, under their radar/SAM cover. I think they have few real planes to counter indian superiority... the AF which lands the first blow will have a major advantage and as days progress , the advantage will increase dramatically.
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by rohitvats »

Both points are right.

(a) Geography is a strength because of the compact/limited nature of area which needs to be defended. PAF can easily move back-and-forth between forward and main bases (which are better defended), rather than have to deploy assets in permanently in a piecemeal manner.

Also, with vital assets/vital points located over a relatively smaller area, lesser number of CAP are allowed to handle Indian threat. This increases time over patrol and the reaction time is also lower.

It allows PAF to manage its assets better.

(b) Geography will become an issue because of the increasing range and sophistication of Indian Air Defense network. PAF will have to evolve very innovative tactics to surprise IAF. And for a smaller air-force, surprise is very important as it lacks the means for brute force action.

And I agree, its a defensive air force. My point earlier about north and south based fulcrums points towards the same.
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by manjgu »

a) u mean since their depth is less and consequently their main / satellite air bases are much closer to the border as compared to IAF bases which are located much deeper inside indian territory. b) i thought the fact their air bases are closer to the border ( makes it easier for them to surprise us) inspite of all the radars etc . i mean the reaction time reduces for us ...conversely. I think their lack of depth makes them more vulnerable to stand off weapons as well. c) idk but having north / south based fulcrum points makes them more vulnerable ( centralised vs distributed) topology ??
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by rohitvats »

Let me give an example.

In case of IAF, since we intent to provide air defense cover across maximum space, we've air-bases which are spread like beads of a necklace, generally separated by ~200 km distance. Barmer, Jaisalmer, Phalodi, Nal (Bikaner), Suratgarh, Bhisiana etc. This is legacy of short-ranged fighters and non-networked radar-network.

All above bases have resident fighter squadrons for air defense role. Which were all Mig-21s earlier and now wherever we can, Mig-21 Bison. But since we've only 5-6 Mig-21 Bison squadrons, we need to push other types for AD duties. IAF also mixes/distributes Mig-29 and Mirage-2000 with them for CAP and to bolster AD duties.

You can expect Su-30 MKI in AD role distributed across these airfield, this will change the very paradigm of air defense over vast Indian air space.

PAF does not have counter network of such air bases. What they have is satellite bases or dual use bases. They concentrate assets in some major bases in-depth and then distribute them as required. They simply can't match IAF for air-base to air-base and squadron to squadron. They also have to caution against their forward air bases being over-run by Indian Army.

Because they've to defend a smaller and compact air-space, they can do this. And of course, as you mentioned, since they're defensive air force, they can afford to give-up air defense over large air-space.

Working from few large air-bases, spread over a relatively smaller area, helps PAF to achieve high fighter density.
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by Y I Patel »

Rohit

Great analysis! To add to your assessment - Jacobabad air base is a formidable defensive asset to protect the spine of Pakistan against both aerial and land attacks.
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by dhyana »

Abhijit Iyer Mitra separates the grain from the chaff in the F-16 countgate saga

Another summary analysis of the shoot-down as well as some good digs against our Pakistani-loving presstitutes.
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by saip »

I like the suicide bomber example. You can find head and the legs (like seeker and the tail of the missile) of the bomber in many cases and then the ISPR dumbo will conclude that that person is NOT the bomber as his body was found 'intact'
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by Karan M »

I would also point out IAF deliberately does not locate important assets at forward air bases in peacetime because the Pakistanis use their AWACs to snoop, and figure out our force engagement methods, tactics etc. So the S30s would be located deeper. The new NGHAS will enable us to locate assets closer to the border in wartime. Also, ORP/QRA is led by fastest reaction time. With a single engine and simpler hydraulic systems, Bisons will take only a few minutes to scramble. Same isn't true for the Su30 MKI. So even going forward, you wi see colocated Su30s with Tejas.
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by Karan M »

Also to add to Rohits point, PAFs once upon a time, super impressive super bases like Sargodha etc are now vulnerable to IAF inventory of specialized heavy strike munitions procured for this purpose. No need to send a squadron to do the job alone when you can lead with 450km Brahmos, 350km Prithvi-3, and soon enough Pralay, Nirbhay etc.
Pralay is designed to carry 1Tonne upto 350km. That is a significant load.
link
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by Singha »

All paf bases are now in our standoff air and ground launched missile range

Only issue is major bases have 50 dispersed shelters and many other areas. To Annihilate one such base needs a accurate barrage of 80 guided weapons — either couple b2 dropping 80 jdams or a ddg51 worth of missiles

At present none but khan saheb has so many rounds and khan saheb is well short of the numbers needed to do this to the large number of bases of a major enemy not the paki types

If saaw can penetrate 2m thick concrete its a game changer. If it cannot we need to make a new version of it for the bigger shelters.
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by Singha »

In a future rematch we need give a demo on one such major paf base located near a well populated heartland townn in daylight so nobody can hide the devastation
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by sajaym »

Singha wrote:In a future rematch we need give a demo on one such major paf base located near a well populated heartland townn in daylight so nobody can hide the devastation
When that happens the DGISPR will tweet "Today at XYZ Airbase our brave forces set fire to the grass around the airbase with grenades and bombs, this was done to eradicate the mosquitoes which were causing Malaria. Inshallah, we shall defeat the mosquitoes. We appeal to the Awaam not to panic!"

If anything, the events of Feb'2019 show the levels to which Paki forces will stoop to spread misinformation among their own people.
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by yensoy »

Y I Patel wrote:Rohit

Great analysis! To add to your assessment - Jacobabad air base is a formidable defensive asset to protect the spine of Pakistan against both aerial and land attacks.
And attacks from the sea as well. Jacobabad and Sarghoda are gold plated airbases, no expense spared to build them. We need a couple of missile batteries expressly placed to take them out.
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by Aditya_V »

Looking at the various reports, and Rohit Vats question why? I think the reason why Abhinandan took the risk and crossed the LOC is becoming clearer.

Pakis came for

1) Hit our bases with H-4 Raptors from Mirage IIi/V and cause casualties since they have sufferred huge causuatlies on our 26 Feb 19 strike , this failed
2) The biggest aim was to get our Su-30 with F-16 Amraams- which would have been H&D coupe

3) 1 and 2 failed, but SU-30 were busy spoofing the Amraams so they saw a window of opportunity to use F-16 LGB to our Brigade HQ, the bomb run was aborted and LGB's dropped premeturely when the AWACS saw Mig 21 Bison's cross the Pir Panjal Mountains and turned around.

4) But here the speculation based on Security scan report by ex IAF officials- the F-16 that went down was not a ex Jordanian F-16 or any of the MLU F-16's, it was a"Block 52" F-16, yes see that again block 52 is mentioned. I think thats why Wing Commander took the chance, the 3 F-16 that intruded where Block 50/52's, so getting one was a huge blow for the PAF, these were their best strike aircraft and hence he felt the risk was worth it. Thats why everyone trying to cover thier ass.

I hope its true Hassan Siddiqui and Shahbaz Haider were the pilots and thats why the ex PAF fellow probably recorded Hassan Siddiqui from the Hospital stating about 350 IA dead, since that mission had failed alogn with the Su-30 and heavy casualties the previous day.

Now Ghaffor is busy checking the music videos of BJP MLA.
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by yensoy »

^^^^
1. LGBs use wouldn't have been opportunistic but planned. One doesn't carry a few LGBs, just in case.
2. Wingco wouldn't know and maybe wouldn't even care which type of F-16 this was, and its provenance. I doubt that level of detail is visible on the radar, and I doubt that would make a difference in the calculus during active warfare.
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by vimal »

Singha wrote:All paf bases are now in our standoff air and ground launched missile range

Only issue is major bases have 50 dispersed shelters and many other areas. To Annihilate one such base needs a accurate barrage of 80 guided weapons — either couple b2 dropping 80 jdams or a ddg51 worth of missiles
Isn't it cheaper and easier to just destroy the runways. Expensive planes are just hangar queens after that.
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by Aditya_V »

yensoy wrote:^^^^
1. LGBs use wouldn't have been opportunistic but planned. One doesn't carry a few LGBs, just in case.
2. Wingco wouldn't know and maybe wouldn't even care which type of F-16 this was, and its provenance. I doubt that level of detail is visible on the radar, and I doubt that would make a difference in the calculus during active warfare.
The Raptors were a safer PGM since they have good stand off distance, but the PAF probably did not trust them based on thier own tests- probably not maneuverable enough for hilly terrain, so F-16 with LGB would have been back up as they would need to get within Line of Sight in LOC type terrain.

The IAF Phalcon and GCI would have detected the variant of the F-16 which was probably communicated to the Wing Commander who took the decision based on information given to him well within the powers delegated to him to take such decisions by the by the IAF.
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by Aditya_V »

vimal wrote:
Singha wrote:All paf bases are now in our standoff air and ground launched missile range

Only issue is major bases have 50 dispersed shelters and many other areas. To Annihilate one such base needs a accurate barrage of 80 guided weapons — either couple b2 dropping 80 jdams or a ddg51 worth of missiles
Isn't it cheaper and easier to just destroy the runways. Expensive planes are just hangar queens after that.
Runways can be built up in 4-6 hours again and taking out every section, aircraft probaly need what minimum 700-800 meters and Airforces also practice taking off from Taxi ways.

Best bet is to take out key sections of runways with CM/BM and before they are repaired aircraft release multitudes of PGM's to take Aircraft in shelters, Fuel dumps, Ammunition , Barracks and anti aircraft defenses, making airbase totally not operational, if we can do that to Sargodha, Shorkot, Jacocobad, Murid, Mianwali, Peshawar, Risalpu, Maripur, Bholari, PAC Kamra, and CHaklala and PAF base in Quetta within the first 1 hour, IAF can have a freeier rein of the skies.
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by mmasand »

^ Or merely take out their fuel tanks. What good are the beauties sitting on the ground but nowhere to fuel them.
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by negi »

These days everything is digital explode a big enough EMP and right from fuel pumps to radar controls and commn equipment everything will get fried ; along with that take out the local power grid and ATC and most of the infra is rendered useless.
Aditya_V
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by Aditya_V »

mmasand wrote:^ Or merely take out their fuel tanks. What good are the beauties sitting on the ground but nowhere to fuel them.
You have to make sure then all bowshers and Tankers in Pakistan are taken out as well, far easier to take out aircraft.

Dream day will be watching Pakis helplessly hiding when the IAF is bombing them and they can do nothing about it.
Singha
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Re: MiG-21 Bison shoots down F-16 in Kashmir

Post by Singha »

mmasand wrote:^ Or merely take out their fuel tanks. What good are the beauties sitting on the ground but nowhere to fuel them.
fuel tankers will be dispersed and kept in populated areas near airbases rather than clustered on the base.
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