2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Lilo · Post by **Lilo** » 14 Apr 2019 15:57

Report in Tamil

Elderly man murdered for asking vote for Bjp in Tanjore
By Vishnupriya R | Updated: Sunday, April 14, 2019

Govindaraj 75, an elderly man from Tanjore, beaten to death by a bus driver Gopinath, for campaigning for PM Narendramodi

Vadivel · Post by **Vadivel** » 14 Apr 2019 16:32

Lilo wrote:
Survey:"Favorite political leader in tamilnadu"
Note that Tamil separatist Sebastian Seeman is at 4th at 5.5%

.

PT is not good source of news or pre-poll surveys, PT is owned by IJK which is a ally of DMK and is co testing in 1 seat.

Pandy Chanukah YouTube channel s / News 18 is reasonably reliable. So is Ravindran gurunaths summaries in Adnan YouTube channel (other videos if adnan are completely biased.

arshyam · Post by **arshyam** » 14 Apr 2019 16:39

Sridhar K sir, what I posted is based on my info. Tughlak of course is more credible.

SR Raja may not have the appeal he might have in Tambaram. Let's see.

arshyam · Post by **arshyam** » 14 Apr 2019 16:43

rhytha, Polimer seems okay too, just for news reporting, at least. Not sure who owns it though. Everyone has a channel

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 14 Apr 2019 16:46

Watch from 1:13 onwards

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sj_EodcRF7s

Nagpur Electorate Says, 'Chowkidar Chor Hai But Pure Hai'

Sridhar K · Post by **Sridhar K** » 14 Apr 2019 16:55

arshyam wrote:rhytha, Polimer seems okay too, just for news reporting, at least. Not sure who owns it though. Everyone has a channel

A rare real news channel in today's time.

Though I am skeptical on NDA getting 50% in TN, I sincerely hope that I am wrong. One thing I find is that common man has more appreciation of Modi in TN than the educated classes and youngsters who are swayed by the meme factories

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 14 Apr 2019 17:29

Lilo wrote:
Survey:"Favorite political leader in tamilnadu"
Note that Tamil separatist Sebastian Seeman is at 4th at 5.5%

The percentages add to 70% approx, where are the remaining 29% ?

Lilo · Post by **Lilo** » 14 Apr 2019 17:58

^
Whether it is rigged or not, there is always the dont know/no response category amongst survey respondents

Below is a more detailed link
http://www.puthiyathalaimurai.com/news/ ... ign=search

Round up of various TN local poll "surveys"

Opinion polls predict comfortable win for DMK alliance in Tamil Nadu
While Puthiya Thalaimurai and Times Now gave the DMK over 30 seats in Tamil Nadu, Thanthi TV's poll predictions varied a bit.
Megha Kaveri Tuesday, April 09, 2019

With less than ten days for Tamil Nadu to go to polls, media houses are busy publishing the results of the opinion polls. According to various opinion polls published by news channels, DMK-led alliance in Tamil Nadu is predicted to win a majority of seats (more than 30) in the general elections.

Puthiya Thalaimurai, a Tamil news channel, has predicted that the DMK-Congress alliance will gain over 30 seats out of the 39 Lok Sabha seats in Tamil Nadu. For its opinion polls, Puthiya Thalaimurai-APT conducted the survey across 20 constituencies across the state between March 22 and April 2. Of the respondents to the survey, 64.87 per cent were men, 34.92 per cent were women and 0.21 per cent belonged to the third gender. Of the respondents, almost 42 per cent said that they would vote for the DMK-led alliance while 27 per cent said they would vote for the alliance led by the AIADMK.

Puthiya Thalaimurai is owned by TR Pachamuthu, who is contesting as part of the DMK alliance.

Performance of PM Modi- PTTV- APT survey

For the purposes of the survey, Tamil Nadu was divided into five zones based on the geographical location of the constituencies. The survey pegged broad questions like the voter preference for a second term for PM Modi-led government at the centre and issues that could determine the outcome of the general elections. Fifty-five per cent of those who responded to the survey said that Narendra Modi's performance as the Prime Minister of the country over the past five years has been bad. While 14 per cent of the respondents said they were satisfied with his performance, 10 per cent of the respondents said the tenure was good.

Biggest factor which could influence elections

The respondents chose unemployment and farmers' issues to be the biggest factors that could decide the outcome of the general elections. While 36.11 per cent of the respondents chose unemployment factor, 25.70 per cent picked farmers'issues to be the issues that would assume precedence this poll season. The other factors included NEET, Sterlite, labourers issues, corruption and hydrocarbon. Eight per cent of respondents refused to offer a comment for this question.

Rahul Gandhi vs Narendra Modi

The survey said that more than 50 per cent of the respondents preferred Congress President Rahul Gandhi to be the next Prime Minister of the country while only 22 per cent wanted Narendra Modi back on the Prime Ministerial chair. Around 13 per cent answered that they don't know whom they preferred and 10 per cent of the respondents said that they wanted persons other than Rahul Gandhi and Narendra Modi to become the Prime Minister of India.

Similarly, more than 70 per cent of the survey respondents said that they wanted to see a new government at the centre and 21 per cent said that they wanted a government led by Prime Minister Modi back at the centre this time.

Other polls

Thanthi TV has given the DMK alliance a clear lead in 10 Lok Sabha constituencies. According to Thanthi TV's survey conducted in collaboration with Krish Info Media, the constituencies in which DMK has a clear lead include the ones where its senior leaders are contesting from like Nilgiris (A Raja), Thoothukudi (Kanimozhi Karunanidhi), Chennai - Central (Dayanidhi Maran), Chennai- North (Kalanithi Veerasamy), Sriperumbudur (TR Baalu) and Trichy (S Thirunavukkarasar, Congress). AIADMK has clear lead in one constituency Tiruppur as per the TV channel's opinion poll. Apart from the above, while the DMK is expected to have a slight lead over its rivals in 13 seats, the AIADMK is expected to have a slight edge over DMK in seven seats excluding Puducherry. The fight is expected to be neck and neck in eight seats including Dharmapuri and Madurai.

Times Now-VMR survey, meanwhile, has predicted 33 seats to the UPA in Tamil Nadu and six seats to the NDA.

Looks like Ragul the pappu's vacant yet beatific smile & fair Italian skin has its share of admirers in TN with 50% of people supposedly wanting him as PM compared to 22% to NaMo as per one poll.
Bottom line: considering how much of fakenews/memes targeting NDA/BJP/Modi/AIADMK is generated daily by the DK gangs in TN ,NDA needs a big push before April 18 or else it will be raking up some paltry seat number.

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 14 Apr 2019 18:20

And people say TTV was sidelined due to Gurumurthy Swaminathan, not sure how much is it true. But if it is true, GS is an idiot.

arshyam · Post by **arshyam** » 14 Apr 2019 18:50

Sridhar K wrote:One thing I find is that common man has more appreciation of Modi in TN than the educated classes and youngsters who are swayed by the meme factories

I have heard this from multiple people over the past few weeks. That's why I feel a bit more optimistic. Most of the so-called educated types won't step out to vote anyway, they can keep their heads inside their memes for all I care.

arshyam · Post by **arshyam** » 14 Apr 2019 18:58

TTV being sidelined is a good thing. They had become a mafia and wouldn't have been necessarily amenable to nationalist forces - money and power was their focus. Whether the public agree with that or not remains to be seen. I hope they do.

Btw, @Karthik S, by GS are you referring to the auditor and Tughlak editor who is now on the RBI board?

In a sense, this LS election is a judgment day for a lot of parties: AIADMK's legitimacy post Jaya's demise, TTV as a politician (not just as an operator), DMK as a credible force under Stalin, DMDK's future, etc. It will definitely have a bearing on the next assembly election, currently expected in 2021. Only MNM can shrug off a loss and move on

Theeran · Post by **Theeran** » 14 Apr 2019 19:04

TTV Dinakaran is not as big a factor in my opinion. He will get the caste votes in the south. It is mostly DMK trying to prop him up as an alternate. Watch this dmk Twitter person - Sriram Madras.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 14 Apr 2019 19:11

arshyam wrote:
Sridhar K wrote:One thing I find is that common man has more appreciation of Modi in TN than the educated classes and youngsters who are swayed by the meme factories
I have heard this from multiple people over the past few weeks. That's why I feel a bit more optimistic. Most of the so-called educated types won't step out to vote anyway, they can keep their heads inside their memes for all I care.

BJP may get the odd seat in TN but beyond that there are too many vested interests with a common agenda of ensuring that no so called North Indian or even a national party has any say in matters concerning TN.

There is a huge investment as well as a huge incentive from entities outside of India in TN to keep such parties out because their investments have to be safeguarded and nurtured. These are the very same entities that constantly stoke the dravidian fires and have been doing so for some centuries now.

Any anti hindi or anti Hindu agitation has their clear fingerprints and their usual goonda gardi modus operandi.

The huge list of foreign consulates in chennai is not for the mere show.

arshyam · Post by **arshyam** » 14 Apr 2019 19:26

^^ Let's see saar. Anti-Hindu agitations will only polarize in the current climate. There is not much of an anti-Hindi issue and even if manufactured, will appear a bit contrived given 3 days left for the election. Modi is careful to speak in English these days when campaigning in the south for this very reason.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 14 Apr 2019 19:26

I saw some more details from behind the burka PP analysis. Few seats I know personally (as I have called people there to vote, plus inputs after the poll), I differ widely with PP on the causes and voting pattern. Of course he has advantage of survey (which I do not have, I am hoping his is random), but he has a big disadvantage, his conclusions are model based, a mathematical construct for whole of India, which is of course not reality.
The point is, are we sitting in am echo chamber only hearing what we want to hear. I want to follow some congress pasand twitter handle, but following them may result in my demise before May 2019 (too much of general chutiapa, and hatred, and stupidity and did I say stupidity before, add that again). I cannot stand any AAP handles (I just then ask God , why did you send me when these guys were also on earth). But we will benefit from some opposition pov that is objective.

arshyam · Post by **arshyam** » 14 Apr 2019 19:29

Some ground reports:

BJP, Congress Down To Number-Crunching In ‘Now or Never’ H Raja-Karti Chidambaram Contest In Sivaganga by M R Subramani, Swarajya

LS polls: Sterlite, conversion among issues in Kanimozhi-Tamilisai fight - Lakshmi Subramanian, The Week

Agasthi · Post by **Agasthi** » 14 Apr 2019 19:41

Agree, I’m here in chennai to put my vote. Dinakaran is of little consequence, DMK is trying hard to prop him to cut into ADMK votes. The fear here in TN was expressed in cartoon in ‘The Hindu’ recently, where the two leaves symbol sprout a lotus and soon the lotus becomes bigger than two leaves. The fear is that BJP needs a ground roots org in TN and in this climate ADMK can provide it if a merger is on the cards. And, then Rajni can take over JJs place without having to spend much moolah. That is why there is so many troll videos and memes by DMK affiliated people to preempt ADMK winning. They are trying to make up for the loss of thatha’s speaking skills. ADMk was the Hindu pasand party starting with MGR when he gave support to Hindu Munnani and then JJ with her temple schemes. DMK is now trying to make peace with Hindu orthodoxy, it’s a great fall from the Ramayana burning days!

Even if ADMK looses, it is a win if Namo forms the centre because a weak ADMk will have more splits and a tailor made org is ready for BJP to absorb if it plays its card right and if that happens we can see TN returning to national level. If there is one thing, an ideology driven party like BJP should learn from DMk is how to wield media and social media.

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 14 Apr 2019 19:54

Shyam, yes that's the person. BTW, he belongs to a fiercely warrior hindu caste. If you talk about money mafia, nothing can beat partnership with PDP. The top management may be so, but the community would have aligned with BJP is what I feel because of their staunch yindooness.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 14 Apr 2019 20:04

TN being a separate “country” under mnc and ej control is a non starter as much as a azad kashmir

The center wields a lot of clout in the things that matter like power airport telecom road and rail . Without such money one can descend to khyber levels making ak47 over coal durnsces by hand but not modern industry

Also the income and corporate taxes first go to delhi and then distributed back to states

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 14 Apr 2019 20:06

Bjp should not attempt to merge in admk
Its a proud party with a long history and will only give sticks like narthie goonda invasion

Instead keep them strong and united and see if they can be a trusted ally.

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 14 Apr 2019 20:25

suryag wrote:saw rangaraj Pandey’s analysis seems to be not giving more than 10 seats to NDA because the TTV factor is having a significant impact

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=OOX_Ju1H6Oo

DMK is winning TN. How much AIADMK side is winning to be seen. In good case NDA may get 15+ and bad case is 5. 10 mentioned above is decent expectation. NDA best hope to get seats is in Karnataka only to win in the South.

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 14 Apr 2019 20:34

ShyamSP wrote:
suryag wrote:saw rangaraj Pandey’s analysis seems to be not giving more than 10 seats to NDA because the TTV factor is having a significant impact

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=OOX_Ju1H6Oo
DMK is winning TN. How much AIADMK side is winning to be seen. In good case NDA may get 15+ and bad case is 5. 10 mentioned above is decent expectation. NDA best hope to get seats is in Karnataka only to win in the South.

Well check the comments.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 14 Apr 2019 20:44

translation please

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 14 Apr 2019 20:48

Karthik S wrote:
Lilo wrote:
Survey:"Favorite political leader in tamilnadu"
Note that Tamil separatist Sebastian Seeman is at 4th at 5.5%
The percentages add to 70% approx, where are the remaining 29% ?

Modi.
There.is a silent wave in TN for Modi.

ashbhee · Post by **ashbhee** » 14 Apr 2019 20:51

Few days ago I read this on Times of India. I was hoping this is true and the change is real and permanent.

In Tamil Nadu, politics makes a slow shift from Dravidian identity

The compulsions of being in power for more than five decades have changed the way the Dravidian majors approach their poll manifestos.

The demands of a separate Dravidian land and shunning Hindi have given way to the language of development in their recent manifestos.

The anti-Hindi rhetoric has died down in keeping with the sizeable Hindi speaking population in Chennai and other parts of the state in recent years.

Read more at:
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/arti ... aign=cppst

suryag · Post by **suryag** » 14 Apr 2019 20:55

ShyamSP garu as much as you want NDA to lose, Rangaraj Pandey's analysis may not be entirely accurate in the sense that he has given more weightage to TTV factor. Now it is anyone's guess how TTV's purported supporters will vote and that is a big factor behind NDA comfortably getting 10 or stretching comfortably to 20

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 14 Apr 2019 21:08

Vikas Bhadauria (ABP News) @vikasbha
Follow Follow @vikasbha
More
सूत्र- बीजेपी का दावा पहले चरण में बीजेपी जीतेगी 91 में से 36 लोकसभा सीट, 2014 में बीजेपी ने 91 लोकसभा सीटों में से 32 सीटें जीती थी ।
#IndiaElections2019
Translate Tweet

Translation, in phase 1, BJP estimates it will win 36 out of 91 seats, in 2014, it won 32.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 14 Apr 2019 21:20

This is in Bengali and unknown channel to me. Their survey (seat by seat) is saying BJP 20, TMC 18, INC 3, Left 1 in WB. I don't expect the left to win any seat. They are giving both seats to BJP in phase 1 with comfortable margins.

https://youtu.be/wl6xsUhfY2E

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 14 Apr 2019 21:28

suryag wrote:ShyamSP garu as much as you want NDA to lose, Rangaraj Pandey's analysis may not be entirely accurate in the sense that he has given more weightage to TTV factor. Now it is anyone's guess how TTV's purported supporters will vote and that is a big factor behind NDA comfortably getting 10 or stretching comfortably to 20

Wrong conclusion - just because I don't do Bhajan analysis, don't conclude that way. He gives one data viewpoint to see if his point can be considered to make any adjustments to my own analysis. I gave my numbers 5 - 20 already which was mainly based on DMK positive voting and AIADMK non-voting from last election data.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 14 Apr 2019 21:35

Singha wrote:TN being a separate “country” under mnc and ej control is a non starter as much as a azad kashmir

The center wields a lot of clout in the things that matter like power airport telecom road and rail . Without such money one can descend to khyber levels making ak47 over coal durnsces by hand but not modern industry

Also the income and corporate taxes first go to delhi and then distributed back to states

It is not so much a question of

TN being a separate “country” under mnc and ej control is a non starter as much as a azad kashmir

It is a question of the forces at play and the havoc that they create. They effectively control and dominate the education system and using that leverage they quickly push suitable candidates into positions of power in media and administration, police and local governments as indeed into the private sector too.

TN bar councils are all dominated by one specific grouping, actively excluding others for the power share.

Look at the damage caused to the society in cashmere and the complete control outside forces have over govt, jobs, the body politic. It has spread like a cancer and has already contaminated the very idea of India.

India is too strong a nation to be taken apart easily but that does not mean that interested people and vested interests are not trying and the effects of that trying is there for all to see.

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 14 Apr 2019 21:42

arshyam wrote:Some ground reports:

BJP, Congress Down To Number-Crunching In ‘Now or Never’ H Raja-Karti Chidambaram Contest In Sivaganga by M R Subramani, Swarajya

LS polls: Sterlite, conversion among issues in Kanimozhi-Tamilisai fight - Lakshmi Subramanian, The Week

Shyam, I saw your post in some thread here or in SSC about various projects Modi govt undertook in TN, would it be possible for you to re-post or re-consolidate here. There are handful of dharmics in my circle brainwashed by TN memes media who can be persuaded to look at the correct picture. Having those data points will be handy.

Agasthi · Post by **Agasthi** » 14 Apr 2019 21:54

It is debatable if DMK is winning. TN is given to sweeps and if it ends up where DMk ends up having slightly more seats than ADMk then that’s not ‘winning’ in TN. All the mosques and churches have asked to vote for the ‘sun’. It now boils down to caste, middle class and undecided voters. The undecided voters are the game changer, why? Cos ADMk has provided reasonable good governance, their educational programs are talked about despite factionalism, and despite issues like sterlite and cyclone gaja. The impression here is that they are being motivated to work as one by modi. DMK comes, it will be corruption, sand mafia and land grab issues. And for their grandchildren why should my daughter or son lose his/her land? These are the kind of questions the undecided voter is grappling with. Also, EJs have made a lot of common Hindus aware and uncomfortable. This was not seen earlier. This is a factor as well. Among business classes, dislike modi for demo and gst. Among salaried folk there is admiration. TN voters are used to seeing dynamic leaders since Kamarajar days and perhaps they are faced with the absence of a leader and that will reflect in the outcome as well, I think!

SaraLax · Post by **SaraLax** » 14 Apr 2019 22:21

ShyamSP wrote:
suryag wrote:saw rangaraj Pandey’s analysis seems to be not giving more than 10 seats to NDA because the TTV factor is having a significant impact

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=OOX_Ju1H6Oo
DMK is winning TN. How much AIADMK side is winning to be seen. In good case NDA may get 15+ and bad case is 5. 10 mentioned above is decent expectation. NDA best hope to get seats is in Karnataka only to win in the South.

Folks - Don't fret much.
Rangaraj Pandey's TN lok Sabha Survey seems to have been taken even before the AIADMK lead NDA alliance was stitched together !.

A lot has changed since that survey was taken then including
[1] the very vibrant political meetings being conducted by EPS+OPS and the huge crowds seen in Modi's election meetings. There is no translation issue between Modi and his Tamil translator like H.Raja or so. Whereas twice Rahul Gandhi's speeches in English were comically mis-translated by local INC leaders with very funny sentences & wrong figures (i.e lesser in value) being used by the translator.

[2] Pandey's survey would not have included the impact on Tamil Hindus (counter-polarisation) by the very crude event of Dravida Kazhagam's (Periyar's Anti-Hindu organization) useless leader veeramani branding Lord Krishna as the principle role model for eve-teasing of girls by boys. This statement has caused lots of very visible anguish against DK/DMK/VCK party candidates. Numerous cases have been filed against veeramani and the local CPI (given 2 seats for contesting as a part of DMK alliance) president Mutharasan leader has asked the state government to provide security for veeramani until end of elections atleast. Tamil Hindu's have woken up a lot more ... Various Math leaders & Madathipathis came together and conducted a big press conference where they condemned the Anti-Hindu talks of DK leaders and said that Hindus in Tamilnadu should vote only for Hindu religion supporting parties. Many villages have driven away DMK candidates who came for seeking votes and all of these can be seen in the news articles in leading Tamil newspapers (like Dinamalar& etc) and in the videos circulating on Twitter/Whatsapp groups.

MDMK is an DMK alliance member in 2019 and was a NDA alliance member in 2014 when Vaiko himself lost in Virudunagar to an unknown AIADMK candidate by more than 1 lakh votes. In Erode Vaiko's candidate asked DK's Veeramani not to hold any political meetings on his behalf because Hindu people are enraged in a big way. The Yadava group Tamil people (also called as 'Konar') and one of their leader have started campaigining for BJP's H.Raja in Sivagangai consitutency. Worst of all - M.K.Stalin has started speaking in meetings that he was never against Hinduism (which is a 100% lie akin to how Pakistani Army wishing for peace with India).

2G scam accused Kanimozhi who is contesting from Tuticorin had to change her Twitter Cover page from a black colored Periyar figure drawn one to a more lighter picture indicating her Mother's 'Nadar' Caste (which is the primary caste in that region). Also DMK meetings have been forced to suddenly start putting up colorful lights of Lord Balakrishna in their evening/night meetings (to assuage the feelings of Tamil Hindus).

Even BSNL Telecom Scandal accused Dayanidhi Maran is facing a tough battle in Chennai Central with TTV Dhinakaran's AMMK & Kamal's MNM pitching in Muslim candidates and NDA alliance partner PMK putting up a good Christian Entrepreneur candidate. The battle is so tough that Karunanidhi's Daughter (Selvi) who normally campaigns only for her old aged Father in Tiruvaiyaru has now been pushed into Central Chennai to campaign for Dayanidhi Maran.

IMHO - the election campaign seems to be turning around towards AIADMK lead NDA alliance.

If you are interested - Look out for tweets from @SuryahSG (BJP guy) & @SriramMadras (DMK supporter with lots of inside news).

syam · Post by **syam** » 14 Apr 2019 22:28

UNSTOPPABLE MODI DURING RECENT 'NAVRATRI FAST'
*Travel 20,000+ KM
*Rallies 20+
*States 10+
*Temperature 40 Degrees+
*TV Interviews 2
*Food to Eat - Almost Nothing
*Routine Work of PM

One of the reasons why I traveled 100s of kms to vote for him. That's the least I can do.

Jai Maa Bhavani

schinnas · Post by **schinnas** » 14 Apr 2019 23:06

The ground situation is that last minute money distribution will play a factor in few constituencies and AMMK and DMK can spend more money than ADMK in few constituencies.

ADMK messed up in candidate selection In few seats and as a result is looking at defeat in few of their citadels.

15 will be a good number for NDA at this point. If people decide to not vote for AMMK in the last minute as they aren't expected to win, it will help NDA to aim for 20.

20 or more than that is Gods grace only at this point in TN.

Btw, the last minute TV ads of DmK and Congress is very well polished. In contrast BJP TV ads in Tamil channels are not to be found and ADMK's TV ads are just horrible. They cause revulsion. Hope they correct these by tomorrow.

arshyam · Post by **arshyam** » 14 Apr 2019 23:08

Karthik S wrote:Shyam, I saw your post in some thread here or in SSC about various projects Modi govt undertook in TN, would it be possible for you to re-post or re-consolidate here. There are handful of dharmics in my circle brainwashed by TN memes media who can be persuaded to look at the correct picture. Having those data points will be handy.

This one, about railways in the south? https://www.skyscrapercity.com/showpost ... count=3550. It was a 2017 post, so many of these projects are now completed. vsunder saar has posted more details in the Railways thread recently. That is more up to date.

On BRF, this is what I could find, about road projects around Chennai: viewtopic.php?p=2272195#p2272195

This is not me, but from another poster on SSC who collated all the road projects going on in TN. It's a long list. The CG funded ones are called out as well: https://www.skyscrapercity.com/showpost ... count=5327

Peregrine · Post by **Peregrine** » 14 Apr 2019 23:20

The Economist explains

Why do India’s elections take so long?

They are big productions, for which high standards are set

ALMOST ONE in eight of the world’s adult population is eligible to vote in the election for the next Lok Sabha, the lower house of India’s parliament. Something close to one-seventh of them were invited to vote today, April 11th. The rest of the nearly 900m people who may choose to exercise their franchise will wait their turn over the course of the next 37 days, in a series of six more phases. They are staggered, such that about six days pass between each round, and scattered all over the country, in a splotchy-looking map that the Election Commission of India has calibrated carefully. One effect is that no one will know who won any given seat—let alone whether the prime minister, Narendra Modi, keeps control of the government, or lets it slip to some unfathomable assembly of opposition parties—until May 23rd. That morning all the ballots are to be counted within just a few hours.

Why draw out the voting like this? The seven-phase calendar imposes practical difficulties of its own. There are strict rules that are supposed to prevent news of polling in any one area from affecting the voting decisions made in another. (Let’s never mind the bated breath of a billion-odd people waiting for an outcome.) But here is the catch: those same strictures, the “model code of conduct”, are what make the slow and steady pace necessary. The code is implemented by a roving company of administrators, backed up by an enormous number of police and paramilitary forces. Getting from one part of the country to another takes time; some of India’s 1m polling stations are still extremely remote. The whole state of Arunachal Pradesh, next to the border with Myanmar, voted today, which meant that 32 officials had to be airlifted into a deep forested valley. The Election Commission is nowadays most concerned with ensuring a fair and well publicised vote, but in wilder times it was also responsible for protecting ballot boxes from being stuffed or stolen, or candidates kidnapped.

Look at the map to see what role security considerations still play in determining the need for seven phases (in the last general election, there were nine). Several of the states that went to the polls today managed their voting in one go: Arunachal in the north-east, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh around the south-central Deccan plateau, and Uttarakhand in the Himalayas north of Delhi. These are all relatively peaceful places (notwithstanding the odd Maoist attack in the south). By contrast the northern and eastern states of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal, across the most densely populated and also the poorest belt of all, are broken up into seven parts each. They are also notorious for their rough-and-tumble politics, and the thuggery that comes with it. The Kashmir valley in the far north is not nearly so thick with people, but its security problems are even more intense; it is the other place to keep the commissioners busy through April and May.

The staggering is the one thing that has brought the Election Commission the least criticism. In this fevered season opposition parties, NGOs and other observers all see the tables being tilted against them. Every day brings a new complaint, and sometimes even redress. On April 10th the commission ruled that a hagiographical film biopic about Mr Modi cannot be released until after the election, and also that “NaMo TV”, a mysterious new satellite channel, must be counted as pro-Modi advertising. Such enforcement of the model code will continue through the election itself. On April 12th the Supreme Court is to decide whether “electoral bonds”, a new method of funnelling corporate donations anonymously into party coffers, should be voided midway through the voting. Lots of work left to do, only 37 days and counting.

Cheers

KJo · Post by **KJo** » 15 Apr 2019 02:07

arshyam wrote:^^ Let's see saar. Anti-Hindu agitations will only polarize in the current climate. There is not much of an anti-Hindi issue and even if manufactured, will appear a bit contrived given 3 days left for the election. Modi is careful to speak in English these days when campaigning in the south for this very reason.

This anti-Hindi thing appears to be just in TN. He recently spoke in Mysore and asked the crowd if "Hindi chalega?" and the crowd roared in approval. If you love Modi, you don't care what language he speaks in.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 15 Apr 2019 02:22

One CT ...

I talking about AP vs India. Don't want to include that into this.

SriKumar · Post by **SriKumar** » 15 Apr 2019 02:42

^^^ This post is a keeper. I am not sure but I think it does raise the quality of posts on this thread?

However, since it is clearly denoted and prefaced as a 'Conspiracy Theory', it is completely OK to post it.
(Mods: Can we discuss the above post? ).