Indian ASAT Test

[Karan M]

I dont know why, as Indians, we react to every tom dick and harry who chooses to comment on us. The fact that they are commenting on us bears testimony that your country is doing bigger things in the world..

Don't respond to every tom, dick and harry. But do respond to serious researchers or people with fancy tags or people who get quoted heavily as part of ecosystems.

The best reaction is really, either to ignore, or offer a polite, factual rebuttal and get on with your positive agenda of changing your circumstance and your world.

Yes offer a polite, factual rebuttal. That is what I am saying. Don't be silent and let the other side spin away your accomplishment into a failure or some sort of "fake test", which is what the Diplomat attempted to do with DRDO's BMD test as well. Tomorrow, Indian opinion makers, many of whom have an abiding fascination for "Foreign views" will take these and attempt to throttle our own programs. No kidding, it has happened already several times.

[sudeepj]

But, DRDOs imagery is either not a true depiction of what happened, or we hit the satellite on the way up. So, for example, it is completely true that if the satellite is moving almost due north, the KKV is moving almost due south, the time is around midday and the solar panels on the satellite are facing the sun, then in a head on collision you will see the solar panels almost edge-on. Kind of like you walking up to a person (of similar height) holding up an umbrella at midday. A bird swooping down on the person will see the top (full profile) of the umbrella.

..
The scientific space community will always look down on ASAT tests. And, IMHO it should. There is nobility there. So don't fight them. It is a necessary evil that we have to have. Just like a nuclear bomb.

Isnt it possible that the sacrificial satellite's attitude was changed to present a bigger target.. given this was the first test? There are so many imponderables in these things that outsiders can only guess.

[sudeepj]

I dont know why, as Indians, we react to every tom dick and harry who chooses to comment on us. The fact that they are commenting on us bears testimony that your country is doing bigger things in the world..

Don't respond to every tom, dick and harry. But do respond to serious researchers or people with fancy tags or people who get quoted heavily as part of ecosystems.

The best reaction is really, either to ignore, or offer a polite, factual rebuttal and get on with your positive agenda of changing your circumstance and your world.

Yes offer a polite, factual rebuttal. That is what I am saying. Don't be silent and let the other side spin away your accomplishment into a failure or some sort of "fake test", which is what the Diplomat attempted to do with DRDO's BMD test as well. Tomorrow, Indian opinion makers, many of whom have an abiding fascination for "Foreign views" will take these and attempt to throttle our own programs. No kidding, it has happened already several times.

We are in furious agreement.. If at all we need to react, instead of bringing in historical issues, we should just say '.. we planned for debris to decay.. we are a serious space faring nation with our own human space flight program and conscious towards our duty to keep space free from debris. Compared to earlier events, this event has created 0.001% debris. We will work with other nations to spread global peace and harmony as per our civilization ideals of sarv dharma sam bhava and vasudaiv kutumbakam' My point is, even when you react and rebut.. in a way you are responding to an agenda set by those inimical to you. Instead, setting your own agenda is much more effective.

On a different note, I am not sure what the importance of eco-system types is. Ultimately, decisions are made at the political level, and people have to carry them out. Just look at the NASA admin tucking his tail and saying yes sir.

[Karan M]

Karan,

Why care? If there is an ASAT test, there would be debris.

The scientific space community will always look down on ASAT tests. And, IMHO it should. There is nobility there. So don't fight them. It is a necessary evil that we have to have. Just like a nuclear bomb.

The proper response is not to try and claim the high ground by proving we created less debris than anyone else, but to tell the space community that most of you are sitting in the country which started this. Your country started the nuclearizing of the world a well and actually killed hundreds of thousands using those weapons. Just like they started the militarization of space. Now that they have already done it, we will make debris if we want to as well and if you have a problem you can go screw yourselves.

Exactly. The hypocrisy of many of these so called "scientific community"/"western military analyst" guys abroad can only be classified as "who pays the piper, calls the tune". I remember one Western Navy guy upset with Indian Navy because we were buying Brahmos. His logic, China didn't call for that threat, so we were attempting to deter the NATO Navies operating in Asia. Hold onto that for a second, a Western guy with a belief that IN shouldn't punch above his weight, was busy acting as an unofficial spokesperson for the Nato navies esp. the USN. And his "views" were being very widely quoted all across the net, and occasionally making their view to "journals".

I and a certain BRF oldie, who has passed away, took this guy on and went full hammer and tongs at his claims. Its interesting to note his views changed from "threat to the west, to better to have these guys on our side". What role we played in it, we don't know. But at least, there were no comments in "journals" stating IN was planning to take on the west and hence they should sanction India.

This is how these guys build up a narrative. And these crackpot ideas are taken to a next level.

Here is how I'd take advantage of the fact the Indians stay quiet.

DRDO claimed it conducted a test but doubts remain about the efficacy and truthfulness of their claims. [citation]. NASA administrator said blah blah blah [citation2]. Indian analysts noted the test was not as much about Indian strategic requirements but national pride and election requirements [citation 3,4,5,6]. It may be worthwhile to introduce international legislation to prevent countries like India from undertaking flawed missions for domestic political aims. Even whilst unsucessful, they can create debris [citation]. Indian scientific establishment in particular needs to be censured for undertaking a test against international agreements on safety. Administration should explore ways to convey displeasure and have India be a more constructive player in the space community. [citation].

[Karan M]

On a different note, I am not sure what the importance of eco-system types is. Ultimately, decisions are made at the political level, and people have to carry them out. Just look at the NASA admin tucking his tail and saying yes sir.

Depends on the current administration. Current one in US is the kind who goes with his "gut" and distrusts kilograms of paper files and does what he wants, other peoples views be darned. A Clinton type admin IMHO will be different and full of these "socio-political-technocratic" NPA types like previous ones.

[Haridas]

Since v r into this and speculation on The Problem is halal: The sounding rocket will not drift West. If anything it will drift East.

While I am only a humble yak herder, my evil 6th coujin (thrice removed by polis) studied in the Balakot Madarssa under Mullah Majeed Azhar (pbuh) and was sent across the LOC. He threw his aam-Laxman Mark 666 grenade, but unfortunately it went westwards instead of eastwards so it hit the ISI Brigadier standing there beeing. Fortunately it was Made In USA and would not go East of LOC or explode, but Prigadier had bad damage to both front and back of uniform pants. However my coujin escaped the Indian polis and registered in Srinagar University in Ore-Betel Mechanics to better understand this very problem and operate MANPADS in future. So here is his explanation, apologies for the pingreji because it comes directly from him. ......

Q.E.D. (Qaid-e-Duh!)

You are merciless in using a double edged sword coated in sweet honeyed sercasm.
Wonderful post. Thank you, for drilling in sense to halal e zamzam.

[Nalla Baalu]

Isnt it possible that the sacrificial satellite's attitude was changed to present a bigger target.. given this was the first test? There are so many imponderables in these things that outsiders can only guess.

Exactly. Issue command to satellite to turn 'toasty' side of the body and solar panels towards projectile just before green signal to engage. It's a design of experiments problem, where you try to control as many degrees of freedom as you can during initial test phases.

[Haridas]

UB, I haven’t fully understood how the atmosphere would affect the flight both in terms of drag and propulsive efficiency due to change in density, but I believe what you said above.

In simple terms two interrelated factors :
1. Best possible delta-v from rocket gas leaving rocket nozzle would be if gas has zero deviation from axis of net thrust. So nozzle is shaped to keep exhaust parallel, even though there is say 1 Bar atmospheric pressure (at near launch pad altitudes) impinging and trying to push gas along orthogonal direction. Net result is the for the same fuel and engine with matching nozzle for low altitude (high atmosperic pressure) ISP is lower by an amount proportional to ambient pressure, compared to same fuel & engine with matching nozzle for low ambient pressure/space. In simpler term the propulsive momentum obtainable from exhaust gas is proportion to chamber pressure difference wrt pressure at nozzle end. (E.g. if Vikas chamber pressure is 55 bar, and is hypothetically used in jupitar's high attitude with 25 bar ambient pressure, the net useful energy available for propulsion is much smaller).

2. Rocket boosters are designed for higher initial thrust (i.e ground pressure) to minimize what is known as effective ISP loss due to gravity. When the rocket climbs up to say 3 km, the atmosperic pressure is significantly lower, and the nozzle can't keep exhaust gas perfectly aligned with thrust vecyor, resulting in inefficiency. At 10 km it gets worse.

Just for what it may be worth, as you may already know.

[disha]

Interesting.
https://twitter.com/Marco_Langbroek/status/1116147781444546561

Marco Langboek has got it completely wrong.

His last reference is a IR photo of the target satellite taken from ASAT which is at a distance of 0.84 Km. That is 840 meters. All it requires (I think, thumb rule) is 0.03 degree change over 0.84 km to achieve a height of 0.25 meters and the ASAT will be top down on satellite.

[Haridas]

Karan,

Why care? If there is an ASAT test, there would be debris. Actually, head on collision creates the lowest chances of debris to reach higher apogee orbits. But, hitting the satellite on the way down would create the most atmosphere intersecting debris (if I am not wrong). Most debris from the KKV will enter the atmosphere in minutes, depending on the angle of interception.

When I wrote the article, I had made this assumption. Now a K4 class booster with the 1.8 ton KKV cannot reach apogee in 3 minutes. So, I knew I was wrong. But if they went for a depressed trajectory, they could have been very close to a head-on collision. That was what I was hoping for.

But, DRDOs imagery is either not a true depiction of what happened, or we hit the satellite on the way up. So, for example, it is completely true that if the satellite is moving almost due north, the KKV is moving almost due south, the time is around midday and the solar panels on the satellite are facing the sun, then in a head on collision you will see the solar panels almost edge-on. Kind of like you walking up to a person (of similar height) holding up an umbrella at midday. A bird swooping down on the person will see the top (full profile) of the umbrella.

But this takes nothing away from the capability standpoint. As I said earlier, AFAIK a side-on intercept is much more difficult than head on (you have significantly higher relative angular velocity). And definitely, the KKV can hit satellites flying much higher.

The simulations and true data show that the debris are decaying as desired. There will be a couple of debris out there for about a year. But most will decay within 2 months. Just like DRDO simulations showed.



The scientific space community will always look down on ASAT tests. And, IMHO it should. There is nobility there. So don't fight them. It is a necessary evil that we have to have. Just like a nuclear bomb.

Further his own data he shows the velocity dispersion amongst debris is 300 to 500m/sec. Big deal! Corresponding orbital disperson on 350km original orbit is in consequential wrt it's life in orbit.

Anyway who the ph**k cares about pontifications of a cat who is saintly now going to secular Hajj, after the sin of creating space debris 50 time more than indian ASAT, that is still orbiting earth in lo and medium altitude.

Stop feeding gora pests.

[Indranil]

Haridasji,
My interest in rocket engines is very recent and my knowledge is nascent. But I love it. It so pure and complex at the same time. Please keep the gyan coming.

Regarding correcting people on the internet. It is difficult to show a haji cat his nonpious past. So, I don't spend energy. Actually, that community started with: 1) did not happen, 2) they brought Risat down to a near circular orbit and attempted a head on collision as that is easiest, to 3) oh they did an intercept while the kkv was climbing. Not as little debris as they claimed.

Kya mooh lagna inke

[SSSalvi]

Interesting.
https://twitter.com/Marco_Langbroek/status/1116147781444546561

Marco Langboek has got it completely wrong.

His last reference is a IR photo of the target satellite taken from ASAT which is at a distance of 0.84 Km. That is 840 meters. All it requires (I think, thumb rule) is 0.03 degree change over 0.84 km to achieve a height of 0.25 meters and the ASAT will be top down on satellite.

Very correct observation , Disha

[srin]

Haridasji,
My interest in rocket engines is very recent and my knowledge is nascent. But I love it. It so pure and complex at the same time. Please keep the gyan coming.

Regarding correcting people on the internet. It is difficult to show a haji cat his nonpious past. So, I don't spend energy. Actually, that community started with: 1) did not happen, 2) they brought Risat down to a near circular orbit and attempted a head on collision as that is easiest, to 3) oh they did an intercept while the kkv was climbing. Not as little debris as they claimed.

Kya mooh lagna inke

On one hand, referring to someone else's analysis even to discredit them will only increase eyeballs for their piece ("Streisand effect"), but on the other, this becomes a propaganda tool, because sooner or later, some mainstream publication or some thinktank analyst is going to quote it as truth. We can't let that go unchallenged.

So, why can't we have our own OSINT section on BR website, where well-researched and preferably, peer-reviewed analysis is presented (without any reference to other sites) ? I see fantastic analysis pieces in the forum that gets lost in thread noise (and a few great blogs like RVs), so it'd be great to have all that consolidated in one place. Hopefully, in a short time, it becomes authoritative enough to be used / referred to in SM and Wikipedia and in MSM.

[Indranil]

Interesting.
https://twitter.com/Marco_Langbroek/status/1116147781444546561

Marco Langboek has got it completely wrong.

His last reference is a IR photo of the target satellite taken from ASAT which is at a distance of 0.84 Km. That is 840 meters. All it requires (I think, thumb rule) is 0.03 degree change over 0.84 km to achieve a height of 0.25 meters and the ASAT will be top down on satellite.

It doesn't work that way Disha. I think you are confusing attitude with velocity vector. The velocity vector is mostly changing by virtue of gravity. The DVAC can affect it somewhat but not by a whole lot. The object is climbing at roughly 1.7 km/sec. It is not going to become 0 (or negative) in one second.

[sivab]

^^^ The ASAT is climbing from below, so the last captured image shows approaching satellite antenna as seen from an angle below at capture time. That does not mean it hit the satellite at bottom. It is a mistake to assume ASAT is climbing just vertically, it is climbing and moving towards satellite at same time (it is a vector). It can still hit the satellite in front even assuming no course corrections and that would still be head on. DRDO said head on and where is the evidence/need to dispute that.

[Indranil]

Baba, you are not thinking like a projectile.

You can see whichever direction you want, your velocity vector is not going to change at the rate of gravity at that point. And velocity vector is the determining factor, not your orientation as you hit it.

[SaiK]

Karan,

Why care? .... Just like DRDO simulations showed.

https://youtu.be/KYRHmEF1Azo

...

From this:

[Manish_P]

You guys might not believe it, but on twitter there was a Paki maulana ranting that under Modi India has now developed rockets which have range to reach Allahs throne just above the seventh heaven (this ASAT test being a small demo of that capability) and if anything harmful happened to him, then the maulana would personally lead his followers in attacking Modi and India. And it was not a parody account. None of the Pakis on his TL asked him what about US and China

[Karan M]

Manish, Link and put it in the Pak multimedia thread.

[Dileep]

Broken Record Sounds: The effect of hitting a satellite upward or downward is practically the same.

Two reasons: 1) A high energy collision cause a violent explosion with the debris going all around. 2) Even if you impart a downward (towards earth) velocity vector, the debris (if miss reentry) will go up on the other side. Even if you impart an upward velocity vector, it has to come back further down on return.

The basic mechanics we take for granted takes a spin on the head in orbit.

[Manish_P]

Manish, Link and put it in the Pak multimedia thread.

Karan Sir, It was retweeted by an ex Indian military gentleman, originally retweeted by (i think) a Paki journalist.

I saw it on my mobile while travelling in a train. Tried bookmarking it (to post it in the BENIS thread) but the twitter app crashed.
I guess it just couldn't handle the impassioned replies by the outraged abduls.

Believe me i have been desperately searching for it for the past 2 days Will keep trying

[disha]

(Apologies for a hasty post..)

It doesn't work that way Disha. I think you are confusing attitude with velocity vector. The velocity vector is mostly changing by virtue of gravity. The DVAC can affect it somewhat but not by a whole lot. The object is climbing at roughly 1.7 km/sec. It is not going to become 0 (or negative) in one second.

I might be, but what I am trying to say is that the Marco guy is thinking in straight line when the path will be actually elliptical.

My point is that marco is assuming that from the photo ASAT hit the target "from below" and the fact that ASAT still has some ways to go (840 mtrs) means to assume it is going to hit the target "from below" would be false.

Let us say that ASAT's attitude at that point of time is 0.02 or 0.03 degrees offset towards the "up" direction, then it would have missed the ASAT if no further correction would have been taken - but the photo for Marco would be perfect!!

Here is another fact which Marco and its ilk are missing (but not pentagon or any serious space scientists of the world), DRDO said that the CEP was few centimeters. Let say the CEP is 27.5 centimeters to the target at 275 and that translates to a precision of 0.000001 (thumb rules, some zero may have been misplaced, but anything having some

Another way to look at it, it will take some 0.08 secs to cover 0.84 km at some 10 km/s and since it is rising at 1.7 km/sec, in that 0.08 seconds it would have risen some 1.5 mtrs (all thumb rule calculations). At that point it is either going to graze the target at top or hit as expected.

*Again all of the above are rough calculations and I am simplifying the problem tremendously. Point is, Marco cannot go about writing an article deriding an ASAT just by a photo and ignoring several such observations as above.

[disha]

Very correct observation , Disha

Thanks SSSalvi Sir. Hope to understand & learn more.

[dinesha]

Interesting.
https://twitter.com/Marco_Langbroek/status/1116147781444546561

Marco Langboek has got it completely wrong.

His last reference is a IR photo of the target satellite taken from ASAT which is at a distance of 0.84 Km. That is 840 meters. All it requires (I think, thumb rule) is 0.03 degree change over 0.84 km to achieve a height of 0.25 meters and the ASAT will be top down on satellite.

Langboek replies:
My reference is actually telemetry visible in an earth-based IR camera (located on the Indian coast) all the way up to the actual impact moment.

https://twitter.com/marco_langbroek/sta ... 77602?s=12

[disha]

^LOL. telemetry visible in an earth-based IR camera - located on Indian coast!!!!

That is severe severe severe back pedaling by Marco Longbeak! If he was really honest, he would have posted images or data from the "telemetry visible in an earth-based IR camera on Indian coast" (since it is public) and made his analysis. Even now he can do that, if he wants to.

If a earth-based IR camera *located on Indian coast* has a fidelity (and extreme clarity) to see @250 Km up and cut through all the clutter and noise in atmosphere and has resolutions in Centimeters (each pixel should not be more than 5 cm!) on an object that is moving at 7.5 Kms/sec, then I am amazed at the technology Indians have it for such optics and tracking.*

*I will not be surprised about the advances Indians currently have astrophysics, it is just that capturing such an impact so precisely for anybody to make an analysis of an impact point on the target on first go is like a probability of 0.000001 (or even lesser).

If Marco is using the "blast pattern" as his basis, then he is just blowing wind.

No further need in proving him anything, we just blow him a raspberry and move on (already jingoes are moving on to Nirbhay).

[SaiK]

dileepO, all debris fell on the han-mainland!

[UlanBatori]

Most debris has not yet fallen, hain? Anyway if sat was Micro, hopefully all pieces were also micro.
Meanwhile: someone has been reading UBCN. Long read (yawn!)

[SSSalvi]

As on date some 70 fragments are still seen.

[JayS]

Interception at upward vector is good no..? It conclusively proves that the ASAT PDV MK2 is capable of much higher altitude interception (and range).

[SSSalvi]

Addition to my earlier post.
Actually there are 200+ more small debris pieces are there besides the 70 mentioned above.
But they are not cataloged because of their small size.
The 70 pieces are shown in these images. ( Solid line and a big white dot is the position and orbit of undisturbed Satellite )
The Height distribution :

The South to North portion of orbit showing East-West distribution of fragments:

And The North to South portion of orbit showing East-West distribution of fragments:

[Dileep]

SS ji, these positions are apogee/perigee/average?

[SSSalvi]

Each fragment has it's own apogee/perigee depending on it's orbit.
I can draw each orbit but it causes a clutter in image.
95% have perigee of about 250 kms.
5 or 6 orbits have apogee of 1500 plus kms.
Rest are mostly between 300 and 500 apogee.

Will give a table of statistics in a day or two.

Or refer here: https://celestrak.com/NORAD/elements/2019-006.php

[Nalla Baalu]

Interception at upward vector is good no..? It conclusively proves that the ASAT PDV MK2 is capable of much higher altitude interception (and range).

DRDO chief is on record stating interception altitude capability of more than 1000 km. This specification need not be considered speculative, IMHO.

[Vips]

It’s time to speak out about India’s reckless anti-satellite test.

White Trash's verbal diarrhea.

[sanjaykumar]

Next time there may be a hydrazine risk to the atmosphere. People will get used to India kinetic actions,moving the heavens.

[kit]

The American khujli seems to be that India was able to track all those sats in real time, not that a missile hit one

[UlanBatori]

Someone should send an article to the same entities titled "Lifafa: From Beijing With Love". Sorry we cannot do it at UBCN: "Kinetic Kill" would take on an imminent connotation. JFYI, I believe Beijing has Lifafa'ed the Space Solar Power and Power Satellite / Space E-cono-comics Communities, giving lucrative Con-slut-ant contracts to several entities (I won't call them "pompous" given recent horror though they are very much that), to go conduct "discussions", BLATANTLY on military applications of beamed power. I was amazed at the brazen nature of this, given the US history of ITAR prosecutions against aerospace companies in the past for Chinese collaboration.

So tread with care, but if u r in India, watch the "Patton" movie where Patton orders: "Open fire. Fire at will".

[disha]

It’s time to speak out about India’s reckless anti-satellite test.

White Trash's verbal diarrhea.

Author above is a Kenadian (maybe angling for Bakistani Visa). Several commentators already provided the author a Mamata (tm) treatment.

[Vips]

Dont get taken in by the comments with the article. This is surely a lifafa site as my comments were not published. I had just mentioned some hard hitting facts in a very civil language.

[UlanBatori]

Yes, thanks. This is why I am hoping that someone (safely from India) would publish an article collecting "Chinese Reaction To India's ASAT demonstration" and list all these as part of that. Yes, please use the ITAR definitions given in the link I posted.

Bring in a couple of cases from the media - I mean like Chinese person arrested inside Mar Largo, another at a Florida radar base, etc etc.

THAT might cause some serious reactions of the type called "Miaaw-Miaow Among Pigeons". IOW, please Think Positive instead of wasting electrons on . Dealing with Han is a very interesting problem, but note that we Mongolians have stayed free for millennia (i.e., we must be worse ).