ramana wrote:UB how far west of LOC did the Mig 21 fall?
Good question. Answer is complicated by many false/wrong claims. I do not know whether the F-16 actually came across the LOC. Also, where exactly (GPS coords) is the military Brigade HQ that was targeted? Knowing that one can draw a cone of where the F-16 had to be, to act as laser designator (had to have direct line of sight). My guess is that our ground controller lady
coolly figured out which was the designator a/c and vectored WCDr AV towards that, as a priority kill. She probably was the one who saved the day for the Brigade HQ and turned a big blast/fire spectacle into a fizzle and miss. Many ppl on the ground owe their lives to her and AV. Now you understand why she is getting the praise and honors: it is not like "Oh! A WIMMENS! She could operate RADAR?"
OK, next we need an accurate timeline. When they saw the MiG(s), the F-16 turned tail, and crossed the LOC, maybe climbing to 20K feet and then diving for the deck and coming up again. I am fairly certain that they were heading west ASAP. AV saw that the target designator was now ineffective (if you dive for the deck then there is no line of sight to the target, so he didn't illuminate with radar etc, just followed per controller's guidance. Controller warned him that he was approaching LOC. But he saw that he had a chance to down the target designator, so he crossed the LOC.
OK, at this point (as he was crossing LOC) he was travelling at least around 300, maybe 500 or even 600 m/s. Now the rest has to be figured out. The only remaining data that we have is that the MiG nose did not shatter and the plane seems to have belly-landed at fairly low speed (not high subsonic or supersonic). So we have to allow about 4 to 7 km even at L/D of 4; maybe even more. He must have fired the missile very soon (2 seconds? 3 seconds? after crossing LOC because the Pakis were cocky that yindoos would not follow them across LOC, so they came to level, fast flight towards home. That was when they realized that "they had a problem", and bailed out.
Assuming that the F-16 was 1 km ahead when the MiG fired, the F-16 was some 3 km minimum west of LOC when the missile was launched. Another 5 to 10km before it blew up ( pilots had bailed out). So MiG was about 4 to 9km west of LOC. There is no "Target Destroyed" comm reported from the MiG. Why? Because AV was too busy to communicate. This is why I say that he flew essentially where the debris cloud blossomed. Something really bad happened: if there was an "May Din" signal IAF is not saying. He bailed out - so per this calculation, he bailed out some 5 to 10 km WEST of LOC.
The wind was blowing westwards at low altitude, so his chute was blown further WEST, so he must have come down about 11km WEST of LOC.
Unfortunately, that does not jive with SaiK's estimate of where AV came down (what is the basis, Saiji? )
Then the plane must have glided. If the altitude was at least 1000m, the plane glided at least 4000m. So it came down 14 km WEST of LOC. No smoke etc visible even from planes in the sky east of LOC.
The alternative is that AV turned around, at about 9km West of LOC and headed home, and AV bailed out at about say, 5km west, and drifted back in the wind to land at 7km like SaiK/s terrain map says. Then his plane must have crashed just 1km from LOC.
Why didn't Indian observers see the smoke cloud rising from the ground then? If not the ground troops, the planes in the air must have seen it very clearly. But apparently not.
So you see my problem with SaiK's terrain map. Karan's blue star is vague enough, it is a few km west of where the F-16's pieces came down per his red star.
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