2019 General Elections News and Discussion

saip · Post by **saip** » 24 Apr 2019 03:16

Kakkaji wrote:What did the returning officer decide about Rahul Gandhi’s eligibility as a candidate in Amethi?

His nomination was declared valid, I believe.

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 24 Apr 2019 03:20

EC will put a thumb on the scale against INC/Mahathugbandhan once... for every 100 times it puts its whole knee on the scale against Modi.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 24 Apr 2019 03:37

Voting in local elections in Bilayat does not negate Indian citjenship, as I read here. Can do it as a "Commonwealth citjen". After all it is COMMON wealth: all the wealth of Great UQ is stolen from India, first by the British, then by his predecessors/comrades.
It would have been a DISASTER for BJP/NDA and Modi in particular if the INC's neta had been disqualified. Instant martyrdom.
Much better for him to contest and lose both seats.
It is also a mark of a mature democracy that the incumbent govt is held to higher standards. (nausea break...)

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 24 Apr 2019 03:43

UlanBatori wrote: It would have been a DISASTER for BJP/NDA and Modi in particular if the INC's neta had been disqualified. Instant martyrdom.
Much better for him to contest and lose both seats.
It is also a mark of a mature democracy that the incumbent govt is held to higher standards. (nausea break...)

I agree but unfortunately, even though Smriti ji is giving him a tough fight in Amethi, he is unlikely to lose in Muslim majority Wayanad

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 24 Apr 2019 03:51

UlanBatori wrote:Voting in local elections in Bilayat does not negate Indian citjenship, as I read here. Can do it as a "Commonwealth citjen".

It is not only local elections, commonwealth "shitty-jans" can vote in ALL elections (incl. national parliamen) in UK, and also contest for MP themselves, and can become ministers, judges, armed forces officers, etc. They are officially NOT considered foreigners or aliens.

I personally think this is a serious legal issue. India cannot be member of any organization that confers parallel "citizenship-level" rights such as voting in national elections.This is, in practical effect, the same as dual citizenship which is illegal. I do not know if there is any Indian law that provides an exemption for commonwealth "citizenship".

Since a simple "debarment" of Indian citizens from such rights is not possible to enforce, the only course of action is for India to withdraw from the so-called Commonwealth.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 24 Apr 2019 04:05

I don't see why GOI cannot enforce it: they can threaten to cancel the passport. Having sat in some scary places, I have nearly "gone" in my yaksskin burkha as I heard senior Indian diplos growling:

He will die in (Mongolia)! I am asking for his OCI to be cancelled!

This was for offences such as being rude to the Consular baboon.
Parliament can bring such an amendment to the Citjenship Act of 1954 if it is not already there. Voting in a foreign election is surely an act of Interfering In the Internal Affairs of A Foreign Nation, which is punishable, probably a Non-Bailable Offence.
These are things that a good GOI needs to clean up in good time. Like removing the

DO YOU OWN RACE-HORSES?

question from the Saral IT-2 Income Tax Return form.

Sorry, back to elections. But right now there is nothing formally banned about voting in Bilayat or generally behaving like a Little Sh1t of Britan, as one Sri Lankan politician declared Ceylon to be (actually he said "Bit" but it was promptly corrected by the citizenry)
BJP can start asking why Raoul Gandoo is contesting in THREE constituencies: *ucking-Ham, Amethi and Wynad, and where he plans to settle after May 23.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 24 Apr 2019 04:08

A Commonwealth citizen resident in UK can vote in all elections in UK (including the Brexit ones) and can stand for political positions (and yes, technically an Indian citizen with leave to remain in UK can contest for UK PM position too) while holding Indian passport. This is the UK law. Until 1962, anyone from any commonwealth country could buy a ticket to UK, and go live there without any visa business. Even now certain combinations of commonwealth citizenship imply faster UK citizenship registration paths (like this) .

Indian law is completely blind to all this. We glibly pretend that anyone with an Indian passport is only Indian citizen. But British law treats many such people as UK citizens too (I know firsthand, by accident, not due to voting though...). Same for US , if you're born in US but never lived there and have Indian passport, the US will still consider you an American citizen onlee.

But beyond those details, if it is proven that RaGa *voted* in a UK election - ANY election - that is grounds for his Indian citizenship to be stripped. He already has an active claim to Italian citizenship (and perhaps UK too ?). "UK law permits it" is not an answer, since UK law treats many people with only Indian citizenship according to Indian law, as dual Indian-UK citizens according to UK law. His Indian citizenship is determined by Indian law, and not by UK law.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 24 Apr 2019 04:10

UB here is Kerala turnout. Can we see what it means?

https://twitter.com/shalinispv/status/1 ... 67712?s=19

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 24 Apr 2019 04:16

CRamS wrote:Guys, I see that some in the Lutyen mafia are obsessed (for e.g., low-IQ Bimbo Pagalika) that EC is biased and are not going after BJP and ModiJi. That EC stopped ModiJi Biopic, that they have gone after YogiJi, they have gone after SadhviJi, and yet these people claim EC is biased.

Setting aside their hatred of ModiJi, lets just focus on the legal and model code of conduct angle. The one issue ModiJi haters bring up over and over again is the "Hindu terror" charge against Congoons that BJP and ModiJi have leveled. Now, I don't understand how this can violate any model conduct? If Pappu can say 'chowkidar chor hai' without any evidence, why can't ModiJi attack Congoons for the "Hindu terror" charge when there is much more evidence that indeed Congoons are guilty of the "Hindu terror" narrative.

Of course, one knows why Lutyen slaves of Pappu are worried about this, and thats because the "Hindu terror" charge against Congoons could energize Hindus to vote against Congoons (although I am not sure. The very fact that Pappu and thugbandhan garner quite a bit of support along caste lines from Hindus is shameful).

No point of discussing this over which we have no control.
It will just waste bandwidth.
Instead look a the voter turnout in Kerala and see what we can make out of it.
The numbers are historical.

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 24 Apr 2019 04:18

UlanBatori wrote:I don't see why GOI cannot enforce it: they can threaten to cancel the passport.

Right...and how would GOI determine if someone has been voting in UK elections ? Is GOI supposed to set up an office with babus whose job is to check all UK electoral rolls and cross-check with Indian national data ?

GOI can certainly declare a penalty of passport cancellation, but that's like the Jawja "no textin' while drivin' " law.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 24 Apr 2019 04:25

ramana wrote:UB here is Kerala turnout. Can we see what it means?

https://twitter.com/shalinispv/status/1 ... 67712?s=19

Much higher turnout in Thrissur sounds good for Suresh Gopi. Same for the even higher turnout gains in TVM and Pathanamthitta. Idukki is interesting. Same to a lesser extent for Kottayam, which seemed too much of a UDF stronghold to show such gains. Savyasachi might have some insights on twitter.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 24 Apr 2019 04:26

KL Dubey wrote:
UlanBatori wrote:I don't see why GOI cannot enforce it: they can threaten to cancel the passport.
Right...and how would GOI determine if someone has been voting in UK elections ? Is GOI supposed to set up an office with babus whose job is to check all UK electoral rolls and cross-check with Indian national data ?

GOI can certainly declare a penalty of passport cancellation, but that's like the Jawja "no textin' while drivin' " law.

That is not necessary - being part of the openly accessible voter roll itself can be an offense even if there's no proof of having voted.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 24 Apr 2019 04:55

Suraj wrote: That is not necessary - being part of the openly accessible voter roll itself can be an offense even if there's no proof of having voted.

Can pappu be required to produce an affidavit stating he is not on the voter roll? I hope it is a moot point because from what Ramanagaru linked earlier, Wayanad constituency went from 73% in 2014 to 80% in 2019 voting. Getting knocked out in Amethi would be ideal too.

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 24 Apr 2019 04:58

ramana wrote:UB here is Kerala turnout. Can we see what it means?

https://twitter.com/shalinispv/status/1 ... 67712?s=19

Seems like generally good news for BJP in places like Tvm, Ptmta, Att, Triss etc where voting % has jumped substantially.

On another note, the same twitter handle says that the Shivagiri Math of SNDP is supporting the BJP now. Earlier it used to a constant stream of Commies and Congis visiting there for "blessings".

About 10 years ago a senior relative in Tvm told me: "lokathil communism evideyanengilum, aadyam avide etti nikyunnada Izhavan tanne ayirikyum" (wherever communism may exist in the world, the Izhava will be surely the first fellow to show up there)

Looks like times are a-changin'....

Y I Patel · Post by **Y I Patel** » 24 Apr 2019 04:59

On Gujarat turnout:

(1) Overall it looks like on par with last time, which is great news particularly with (2) below
(2) Turnout looks pretty good in urban areas and particularly in South Gujarat. These are the areas that helped BJP retain majority in the last state legislature elections

So I have inputs for my highly simplified model:
(1) core support for BJP is very healthy
(2) the state level BJP lost its two tallest leaders to the center and has no leaders of comparable stature. So these are still votes for Modi

Based on this my updated projection is that BJP will have a net gain of seats over last time: the base that voted BJP to power is at a comparable level of enthusiasm as last time. There may still be some turnover due to weak local candidates and such, but base vote share is not going to decline and that can only bring good news in areas BJP dominated last time. But there are hitherto denied areas to conquer, and incremental gains will depend on the strength of the pro Modi wave in states like WB and OD.

I say pro Modi wave because it’s obvious to everyone by now who is responsible for the continued strength in base and new support.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 24 Apr 2019 05:00

Mort Walker wrote:
Suraj wrote: That is not necessary - being part of the openly accessible voter roll itself can be an offense even if there's no proof of having voted.
Can pappu be required to produce an affidavit stating he is not on the voter roll? I hope it is a moot point because from what Ramanagaru linked earlier, Wayanad constituency went from 73% in 2014 to 80% in 2019 voting. Getting knocked out in Amethi would be ideal too.

Mortullah, it is my understanding that he's already listed on the voter roll there, as mentioned earlier in this thread.

I would rather see him debarred after being elected.

Indian immigration law is very clear on the fact that acquisition of a foreign passport is proof of renunciation of citizenship. However, this is a very narrow view since there are other ways citizenship can be claimed or used. In the case of UK, their own law lets all resident commonwealth citizens vote and stand for public office. Further, a British citizen is not required to have a British passport - they can retain a foreign passport and maintain a right of abode vignette in that passport. New Zealand has a similar thing - you don't need an NZ passport but can endorse/link your NZ citizenship onto a foreign passport.

According to strict interpretation of Indian law, being registered to vote outside India should be equally grounds for loss of citizenship, just as being registered to vote in US as a green card could cause you to lose permanent residency and get deported.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 24 Apr 2019 05:03

Sahsi Tharoor is contesting from Thiruvananthapuram constituency. Voting increased from 68.63% in 2014 to 73.37% in 2019. It is a 3-way race between Tharoor on the UDF ticket, Kummanam Rajasekharan-BJP, and C. Divakaran-LDF. This may be a case where it becomes difficult for Tharoor.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 24 Apr 2019 05:07

Suraj wrote: Mortullah, it is my understanding that he's already listed on the voter roll there, as mentioned earlier in this thread.

I would rather see him debarred after being elected.

Hmmm. The seat would stay empty until some sort by-election. I'd rather see him lose and be barred from future contesting. I know it is asking much and very unrealistic, but some of us are hoping for a 2/3 majority in the LS for the NDA and then focusing on RS seats for a 2/3 majority there. Repeal of Art. 370 + 35A and UCC are of the utmost priority.

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 24 Apr 2019 05:07

Mort Walker wrote:Sahsi Tharoor is contesting from Thiruvananthapuram constituency. Voting increased from 68.63% in 2014 to 73.37% in 2019. It is a 3-way race between Tharoor on the UDF ticket, Kummanam Rajasekharan-BJP, and C. Divakaran-LDF. This may be a case where it becomes difficult for Tharoor.

An Asianet survey last week predicted Kummanam 40%, Tharoor 34%, and Divakaran 25% votes. If this is credible, we can hope that Tharoor will not darken the doors of Tvm again anytime soon.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 24 Apr 2019 05:09

There is a silent wave (similar to 2004, the rural poor offended by India shinning and uninterested urban; 2009 - MANREGA benefitted poor voters) this time in 2019 - A larger % of urban turnout (historically lesser than their rural counterpart; it still holds true in non BJP pop center - e.g. HYD) and larger turnout of BJP supporter and subdued opposition turnout (e.g. muslims).
This has the same parallel of 2004. Rural vote was offended by India shinning and urban voters did not buy it (hence subdued participation). In 2019, BJP supporter are buying what Modi is selling and the traditionally anti-BJP voter is sitting it out as they also believe what Modi is selling.
Nobody is buying whatever that other guy is selling

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 24 Apr 2019 05:10

UBCN Betting Division points out that KL figures are incremental over an already-massive percentage. Question is, if ur party got 20% last time with an 80% turnout, and the turnout because 85% all all those 5% voted for you, does that make you the winner? Suresh Gopi sweep does not appear to be enough to win, unless a lot of voters changed color this time (quite possible; the others were probably not as telegenic, and the MahaBandarGandhan or whatever may have split votes. But if you look at 2014 BJP votes there, you have to be EXTREMELY optimistic in nature to translate this to a Suresh Gopi win. Those are practical realities.
UBCN Political Correspondent however reports that locals seemed extremely enthused about Suresh Gopi candidacy: at least he drew massive crowds. But so do bus accidents, fires, panicked elephants after they get shot dead by polis, etc. Does this translate to the massive numbers of votes needed?

Pathanamthitta, given proximity of The Temple, sounds interesting. But is that the BJP getting support, or the locals rising in rage against all the auslanders invading their turf, incited by the CM and his goon gang? Are half the voters bogus maybe?

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 24 Apr 2019 05:15

Mort Walker wrote:
Suraj wrote: Mortullah, it is my understanding that he's already listed on the voter roll there, as mentioned earlier in this thread.

I would rather see him debarred after being elected.
Hmmm. The seat would stay empty until some sort by-election. I'd rather see him lose and be barred from future contesting. I know it is asking much and very unrealistic, but some of us are hoping for a 2/3 majority in the LS for the NDA and then focusing on RS seats for a 2/3 majority there. Repeal of Art. 370 + 35A and UCC are of the utmost priority.

If NDA reaches 350 in LS, one can get these things passed without waiting for RS elections, using joint sessions. The required majority of 395 can be easily achieved even if there is significant dissent in NDA. Shivasena can be expected to support 370/35A/UCC strongly, and probably AIADMK will too. JDU could be the spoilsport. It was too risky in Modi's first term since there were other things to tend to.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 24 Apr 2019 05:16

KL Dubey wrote:
Mort Walker wrote:Sahsi Tharoor is contesting from Thiruvananthapuram constituency. Voting increased from 68.63% in 2014 to 73.37% in 2019. It is a 3-way race between Tharoor on the UDF ticket, Kummanam Rajasekharan-BJP, and C. Divakaran-LDF. This may be a case where it becomes difficult for Tharoor.
An Asianet survey last week predicted Kummanam 40%, Tharoor 34%, and Divakaran 25% votes. If this is credible, we can hope that Tharoor will not darken the doors of Tvm again anytime soon.

You're right. It appears to be a tough fight for Tharoor in Trivandrum. Did Modi or Amit Shah make an appearance here in the last 6-8 weeks?

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 24 Apr 2019 05:21

yes Modiji few days ago to a house full

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 24 Apr 2019 05:22

Mort Walker wrote:
KL Dubey wrote:
An Asianet survey last week predicted Kummanam 40%, Tharoor 34%, and Divakaran 25% votes. If this is credible, we can hope that Tharoor will not darken the doors of Tvm again anytime soon.
You're right. It appears to be a tough fight for Tharoor in Trivandrum. Did Modi or Amit Shah make an appearance here in the last 6-8 weeks?

I think NaMo did a large gig there about a week or so ago.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 24 Apr 2019 05:25

I have to agree with the silent wave theory from a quantitative perspective, but being a fearful SDRE worshipping in dark narrow places I am unwilling to openly agree why the wave exists.

Three phases in, most states are reporting turnouts on par with 2014 or higher. Even those that are a little lower, are still a long way higher than the historical average.

Between 1951 and 2009, average turnout in a GE was 56-57% . The highest was 63.5% in 1984 right after IG's assassination and RG #1's landslide win. The 1984 and 1989 elections were the only case where two successive GEs had >60% turnout, but back then 1989 turnout was just 61%, and by 1991 it had dropped back to the mean of ~57%. 2009 turnout was 56.95%, for example...

2014 was 66.5% turnout. That was predictable - the mood everywhere showed it. The current GE is so far keeping up with it, which is astonishing in comparison since the sheer decibel level of 2014 isn't there . There's no broadbased sign of reversion to the mean in terms of turnout, or even dip in enthusiasm three phases in - it seems to be increasing instead, considering otherwise bored Mallustanis (including my parents) flocked to the voting booth.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 24 Apr 2019 05:32

fanne & KL Dubey,

Thanks. Perhaps that has helped energize the people for the BJP and maybe reflected in higher turnout. It appears to be a silent wave. Keeping fingers crossed and hoping Dilbu shows up soon!

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 24 Apr 2019 05:35

CT on CJI attack

Naidu is claiming evm fraud
Mamta is crying evm fraud
AKalesh is crying evm fraud

On May 23, let's say BJP wins big

There will be a big revolt by all these crooks and file a case in SC asking results to be nullified

CJI is being blackmailed into doing it the way they want

amdavadi · Post by **amdavadi** » 24 Apr 2019 05:40

In Guj bjp will get all seats.

.Cong had hoped for Anand seat but it's not even close.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 24 Apr 2019 05:43

vijayk wrote:CT on CJI attack

Naidu is claiming evm fraud
Mamta is crying evm fraud
AKalesh is crying evm fraud

On May 23, let's say BJP wins big

There will be a big revolt by all these crooks and file a case in SC asking results to be nullified

CJI is being blackmailed into doing it the way they want

This is dangerous. I hope the SC will quickly dismiss such complaints. These characters may conspire with non-Indian entities to make matters worse.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 24 Apr 2019 05:47

Right now; The biggest difficulty is judging how much of the left didn't fall for left of the left , i.e UDF.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 24 Apr 2019 05:49

UlanBatori wrote:UBCN Betting Division points out that KL figures are incremental over an already-massive percentage. Question is, if ur party got 20% last time with an 80% turnout, and the turnout because 85% all all those 5% voted for you, does that make you the winner? Suresh Gopi sweep does not appear to be enough to win, unless a lot of voters changed color this time (quite possible; the others were probably not as telegenic, and the MahaBandarGandhan or whatever may have split votes. But if you look at 2014 BJP votes there, you have to be EXTREMELY optimistic in nature to translate this to a Suresh Gopi win. Those are practical realities.
UBCN Political Correspondent however reports that locals seemed extremely enthused about Suresh Gopi candidacy: at least he drew massive crowds. But so do bus accidents, fires, panicked elephants after they get shot dead by polis, etc. Does this translate to the massive numbers of votes needed?

Pathanamthitta, given proximity of The Temple, sounds interesting. But is that the BJP getting support, or the locals rising in rage against all the auslanders invading their turf, incited by the CM and his goon gang? Are half the voters bogus maybe?

Perhaps there is slight reason to be optimistic about KL.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 24 Apr 2019 06:02

Will get updated but highly colored/optimistic view in a couple of days. Major update in prediction will be made May 24.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 24 Apr 2019 06:05

TVM and Patthanamthitta are also up in the air. Is there enough resentment against the present LDF govt is the question. Pinnarayi is out of jail only because he controls the police and has probably wiped out their files on the Lavelin Case and other murders. But he projects as The Savior of Malloostan. Mafia Don. So will TVM with all its bureaucrats, vote against him?

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 24 Apr 2019 06:11

Mort Walker wrote:
vijayk wrote:CT on CJI attack

Naidu is claiming evm fraud
Mamta is crying evm fraud
AKalesh is crying evm fraud

On May 23, let's say BJP wins big

There will be a big revolt by all these crooks and file a case in SC asking results to be nullified

CJI is being blackmailed into doing it the way they want
This is dangerous. I hope the SC will quickly dismiss such complaints. These characters may conspire with non-Indian entities to make matters worse.

Today pawar joined the whining circuit of EVM fraud. I hope MAD know what is going on. Soon NYT/Wapo will pick up the theme.

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 24 Apr 2019 06:26

vijayk wrote:
Mort Walker wrote:
This is dangerous. I hope the SC will quickly dismiss such complaints. These characters may conspire with non-Indian entities to make matters worse.
Today pawar joined the whining circuit of EVM fraud. I hope MAD know what is going on. Soon NYT/Wapo will pick up the theme.

I don't know Bengal case, in AP case they have evidence of bad elections, whether it is called EVM or Election fraud or by any other name. When EVM is mentioned discussion digresses to technical EVM hacking, but there are a different aspects of fraud. TRS has experimented successfully on some aspects of fraud, especially, on voter deletions EC said sorry without any responsibility. Let EC and SC slug it out and if there is fraud let it come out in that fight.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 24 Apr 2019 06:47

Many BJP votes were deleted too in many places.

The real conspiracy of fake GDP, fake jobs all started early with active coonivances of CON trash ably supported by fake media and moles like R3. Just watch as election comes to conclusion. The attack on evm will peak. I think CJI is being blackmailed into admitting those pwtitions.

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 24 Apr 2019 07:40

Even though the voter turnout percentages of 2014 and 2019 are head to head, if people of certain parties where indeed to sit out as was the case during 2004, I think those people would be from MGB and other non-BJP parties. The probability of this would higher than BJP supporters sitting out.

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 24 Apr 2019 07:47

sameet @thakkar_sameet
Follow Follow @thakkar_sameet
More
BJP 245 ~248
COG 77~79

2:05 PM - 23 Apr 2019

Apparently from satta bazar, first time seeing this handle. But it's huge drop from 299 from earlier post from satta bazar.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 24 Apr 2019 07:51

What do the above figures mean? BJP alone not majority, but CONG annihilated, so what happens? How many non-BJP NDA? How many Maha Bandar-Gaddhas if INC has only 75?