2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 29 Apr 2019 19:06

Well to his credit BB did predict 300 seats for BJP in UP elections, hope he is right this time. But more interested in BJP numbers alone.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 29 Apr 2019 19:10

IndraD wrote:#ElectionAlert -- Estimated voter percentage till 6 pm (final figures awaited) for the 4th phase of #LokSabhaElections2019:
J&K - 9.79%

Bad weather? Terrorists threatened voters? No "encouragement" this time unlike 2000? I remember a dhaga that was started as Slaughter of Democracy

that we altered to sLaughter of Democracy

VKumar · Post by **VKumar** » 29 Apr 2019 19:29

50 % in Mumbai North West by 5 pm.

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 29 Apr 2019 19:31

ramana wrote:Doc, Tuesday is super Tuesday.
Phase 3.
After that opposition will pack up.

Ramana garu, today Phase 4 over, you think your claim stands?

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 29 Apr 2019 19:33

ramana wrote:
chetak wrote:The low turnout from the IT sector during the elections in bangalore has finally caught the eyes of some founders.

They have now said that voting holidays are given very specifically for voting and those employees who return without the inked finger will be terminated immediately.

Also, I have had this very nasty feeling for quite some time now that some guys are paying off the authorities to specifically ensure voting is arranged on such a day which when coupled with following/preceding holidays and weekends make for a looooong out of town break.

These are the very same guys who then go on SM and vomit out all sorts of crap against the RW and others of that ilk.

chetak in the big picture B'luru doesn't matter. Those ITVTY NOTArds will get what they deserve as RaGa robs the rich via aNYAY schemes with ITVTY guru Sam Pitroda. To be frank I hold those morons totally responsible for NammaMahishasur rule in Karnataka.

The good thing is in the rest of India, this urban vote has been nullified by minorities deciding they don't want to support losers.

Ramana-garu,
The turnout in Bengaluru has been more or less the same as last time. Last time the figures were
Bengaluru North - 56.5% (2014), 54.66 (2019)
Bengaluru Central - 55.6% (2014), 54.3 (2019)
Bengaluru South - 55.7% (2014), 53.8% (2019).

Except in Bengaluru South where the factional feuding between the supporters of Tejaswi Surya and Tejaswini Ananthkumar affected the BJP slightly [possibly to the tune of 1-2% sitting out], the Hindu participation has been the same. The drop in Bengaluru North and Bengaluru Central is mostly due to Muslims being indifferent to the polls. Not sure where exactly the `IT people have been lax' is coming from. Locals and IT folk registered in Bengaluru have been voting quite heavily. BJP has been winning in Bengaluru from 1991 only on the back of the Hindu middle class vote.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 29 Apr 2019 19:53

Madhya Pradesh, 65.77% polling till 5 pm. In 2014 it was 64.84%
Poll turnout in Rajasthan at 64.5% against 64.48% in 2014. In Anantnag, it was 10.5%, down from 36.34% in 2014(all figures at 5 pm)
In Jharkhand, 63.39% polling till 5 pm. In 2014 it was 63.82%
West Bengal, 76.44% polling till 5 pm. In 2014 it was 83.38%
In Maharashtra, 58.23% polling till 5 pm. In 2014 it was lower at 55.58%
In Odisha, 68% polling till 6 pm. In 2014 it was 73.75%
In UP, 57.58% polling till 5 pm. In 2014 it was 58.39%

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 29 Apr 2019 20:00

PP end-of-day report is out. He is confident of another term for Modi

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 29 Apr 2019 20:02

In this thread some guy who claims has campaigned says things are not rosy and just NDA may only just cross the line. Anyone seen or hears similar scenario?

https://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthre ... 3&page=174

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 29 Apr 2019 20:04

After 4 phases, have seen voluminous amounts of data, along with turnout differential models, polling booth analytics and swing voter trends.
Everything says this is not a close election by any metric.
Would be greatly surprising if NDA doesn't touch 370 on May 23rd!!

https://twitter.com/5Forty3/status/1122 ... 08448?s=19

These data points best demonstrate what is happening in Uttar Pradesh - For BJP voters, candidates are virtually irrelevant, they are just voting for Modi, but for 3/10 MGB voters, candidate still matters & thereby vote transfer issues begin https://t.co/EVGhqOtOeU https://t.co/4HqqHeOPTC

https://twitter.com/5Forty3/status/1122 ... 25766?s=19

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 29 Apr 2019 20:05

Bharti Jain Verified account @bhartijainTOI
Follow Follow @bhartijainTOI
More
64% all-India turnout for Phase 4. in 2014 it was 61.48%
10:13 AM - 29 Apr 2019

Good turnout continues still.

shravanp · Post by **shravanp** » 29 Apr 2019 20:07

IndraD wrote:Madhya Pradesh, 65.77% polling till 5 pm. In 2014 it was 64.84%
Poll turnout in Rajasthan at 64.5% against 64.48% in 2014. In Anantnag, it was 10.5%, down from 36.34% in 2014(all figures at 5 pm)
In Jharkhand, 63.39% polling till 5 pm. In 2014 it was 63.82%
West Bengal, 76.44% polling till 5 pm. In 2014 it was 83.38%
In Maharashtra, 58.23% polling till 5 pm. In 2014 it was lower at 55.58%
In Odisha, 68% polling till 6 pm. In 2014 it was 73.75%
In UP, 57.58% polling till 5 pm. In 2014 it was 58.39%

Numbers from Raj, MP indicate people's mood being quite anti-Cong. Hope those higher voting percentages augur well for BJP

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 29 Apr 2019 20:13

BJP did well in WB in ph 4 inspite of TMC violence and intimidation - local channels.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 29 Apr 2019 20:14

Kakkaji wrote:PP end-of-day report is out. He is confident of another term for Modi

PP claims to be data based, but IMHO he seems to be going out on a limb. If it doesn’t pan out the way he’s predicted, then his methodology is done for and he’s out of business. Surely he realizes this and isn’t out to make everyone a fool.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 29 Apr 2019 20:14

Vikas wrote:
chetak wrote:The low turnout from the IT sector during the elections in bangalore has finally caught the eyes of some founders.

They have now said that voting holidays are given very specifically for voting and those employees who return without the inked finger will be terminated immediately.

Also, I have had this very nasty feeling for quite some time now that some guys are paying off the authorities to specifically ensure voting is arranged on such a day which when coupled with following/preceding holidays and weekends make for a looooong out of town break.

These are the very same guys who then go on SM and vomit out all sorts of crap against the RW and others of that ilk.
Chetak, Is there any data to back up the claim that ITwalahs specifically don't vote while other white collars do ? Just curious to know cuz most of the IT folks do vote and bodly put it up as their DP.

No data yet but this is how some founders of IT companies have reacted per news.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 29 Apr 2019 20:19

Shanmukh wrote:
ramana wrote:

chetak in the big picture B'luru doesn't matter. Those ITVTY NOTArds will get what they deserve as RaGa robs the rich via aNYAY schemes with ITVTY guru Sam Pitroda. To be frank I hold those morons totally responsible for NammaMahishasur rule in Karnataka.

The good thing is in the rest of India, this urban vote has been nullified by minorities deciding they don't want to support losers.
Ramana-garu,
The turnout in Bengaluru has been more or less the same as last time. Last time the figures were
Bengaluru North - 56.5% (2014), 54.66 (2019)
Bengaluru Central - 55.6% (2014), 54.3 (2019)
Bengaluru South - 55.7% (2014), 53.8% (2019).

Except in Bengaluru South where the factional feuding between the supporters of Tejaswi Surya and Tejaswini Ananthkumar affected the BJP slightly [possibly to the tune of 1-2% sitting out], the Hindu participation has been the same. The drop in Bengaluru North and Bengaluru Central is mostly due to Muslims being indifferent to the polls. Not sure where exactly the `IT people have been lax' is coming from. Locals and IT folk registered in Bengaluru have been voting quite heavily. BJP has been winning in Bengaluru from 1991 only on the back of the Hindu middle class vote.

some assembly segments in bangalore have polled less than 35%

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 29 Apr 2019 20:36

chetak wrote:
Shanmukh wrote:
Ramana-garu,
The turnout in Bengaluru has been more or less the same as last time. Last time the figures were
Bengaluru North - 56.5% (2014), 54.66 (2019)
Bengaluru Central - 55.6% (2014), 54.3 (2019)
Bengaluru South - 55.7% (2014), 53.8% (2019).

Except in Bengaluru South where the factional feuding between the supporters of Tejaswi Surya and Tejaswini Ananthkumar affected the BJP slightly [possibly to the tune of 1-2% sitting out], the Hindu participation has been the same. The drop in Bengaluru North and Bengaluru Central is mostly due to Muslims being indifferent to the polls. Not sure where exactly the `IT people have been lax' is coming from. Locals and IT folk registered in Bengaluru have been voting quite heavily. BJP has been winning in Bengaluru from 1991 only on the back of the Hindu middle class vote.
some assembly segments in bangalore have polled less than 35%

The lowest was Bommanahalli at 48% voting. After that, it was KR Puram at 50%. Neither can be said to be a middle class stronghold. In fact, middle class strongholds like Jayanagar, Padmanabhanagar and Basavanagudi saw 57-60% voting in Bengaluru.

Even on the day of polling, the lowest actual turnout in Bommanahalli was estimated at 47%. It went up by 1% to 48% in the final tally.

http://www.newindianexpress.com/states/ ... 66596.html

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 29 Apr 2019 20:37

Avinandan wrote:
KL Dubey wrote:
BB = Braveen Badil. Who is this other guy??
Benazir Bhutto

Good boy! (as one of my brofessors used to say in class when someone gave the right answer). But I meant to ask who "PP" was.

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 29 Apr 2019 20:41

Based upon various reports, it seems like Narendra Damodardas & Associates (NDA)

all the way.

RJ may witness another 25-0 sweep...the election is about Modi. There is only one candidate in the election and the whole exercise is basically about whether you want him back or not.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 29 Apr 2019 21:03

Shanmukh wrote:
chetak wrote:
some assembly segments in bangalore have polled less than 35%
The lowest was Bommanahalli at 48% voting. After that, it was KR Puram at 50%. Neither can be said to be a middle class stronghold. In fact, middle class strongholds like Jayanagar, Padmanabhanagar and Basavanagudi saw 57-60% voting in Bengaluru.

Even on the day of polling, the lowest actual turnout in Bommanahalli was estimated at 47%. It went up by 1% to 48% in the final tally.

http://www.newindianexpress.com/states/ ... 66596.html

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 29 Apr 2019 21:05

KL Dubey wrote:Based upon various reports, it seems like Narendra Damodardas & Associates (NDA) all the way.

RJ may witness another 25-0 sweep...the election is about Modi. There is only one candidate in the election and the whole exercise is basically about whether you want him back or not.

WIll send you a wine bottle too with wine

vsunder · Post by **vsunder** » 29 Apr 2019 21:10

https://www.business-standard.com/artic ... 444_1.html

This is what is symptomatic of WB. As the article above says the tanneries in Kanpur were closed down for Kumbh mela and now their certificates are not being renewed and electric supply will be cut and so they are trying to move to WB. All tanneries in Kanpur use heavy metals esp. Chromium in their tanning process and dump untreated effluents into the Ganga at Jajmau. Years of giving them leeway to change their ways resulted in diddly squat. All tanneries are operated by Peacefuls and a large share of the workers are Peacefuls. They handsomely paid Akhilesh Yadav to continue their pollution. The article is tripe, the votes lost would not have gone to the BJP anyhow.
The Textile industry at Kanpur was brought to its knees by a well-known Urban Naxal and one term MP, Subhasini Ali, daughter of Lakshmi Sahgal of INA fame. Subhasini is named after Netaji. Her father is Col. Sahgal who was tried at the Red Fort after WW2, Dhillon, Shahnawaz. Subhasini got elected on a CPI(M) ticket and did all sorts of trade unionism and fed workers Kool Aid. The Lalaji's who ran the many
textile mills and did not put any money to modernize declared lock outs. The Central Govt stepped in and started a Textile Corp of India to run the mills but all turned sick. Now the workers occupy the lands of the sick mills and moan. In the meantime Ms. Ali married a film producer one Ali, does Aman ka tamasha, but has kept a low profile after destroying the Kanpur economy. Actually I liked Lakshmi Sahgal, she was always extremely nice to me and great friends of my mother. Her sister was the dancer Mrinalini and she was married to Vikram Sarabhai. Malayalis will know this family daughters of A.V. Amukutty known as Ammu Swaminathan.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 29 Apr 2019 21:24

vijayk wrote:
KL Dubey wrote:Based upon various reports, it seems like Narendra Damodardas & Associates (NDA) all the way.

RJ may witness another 25-0 sweep...the election is about Modi. There is only one candidate in the election and the whole exercise is basically about whether you want him back or not.
WIll send you a wine bottle too with wine

meanwhile, back at the ranch....

twitter

Eau de Didi. TMC workers sneak into the booth and daub TMC candidate's EVM button with perfume, then wait at the exit to smell the finger of the voter to ascertain if he or she voted for the TMC.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 29 Apr 2019 21:27

Not to worry. They can perfume with didi's hair oil. WB has voted kamunal, fascist as PP local channel predictions matching.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 29 Apr 2019 21:29

Everyone should just insert their fingers two inches where the sun does not shine after pressing the button and let the tmc workers enjoy that.

As sachin said people can just rub their fingers on tmc button and hard press the adjacent bjp button with another finger or hand

Kanson · Post by **Kanson** » 29 Apr 2019 21:31

Kanson wrote:NDA tally is 399

Update: even this number is bit conservative and could very well exceed. Dont want to put a number, but there is a high chance of NDA crossing the above 399 mark. Jai Hind!

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 29 Apr 2019 21:33

voting in RJ.

twitter

Cong MLA Zahida exhorts Gujjars to vote for her candidate, tells them: "No one has supported the Gujjars more than my dad Tayyab Hussain. If you guys [Gujjars & Muslims] can rob together, why can't you come together to vote?"

English Media SILENT. https://www.patrika.com/bharatpur-news/ ... t-4493928/ …

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 29 Apr 2019 21:34

arshyam wrote:Modi knows what's going on in WB. He said as much in his interviews on TimesNow as well as Aaj Tak. I suspect he is waiting for the model code of conduct timeframe to finish to do something about it - I didn't get a sense of helpless resignation when I heard him talk about the issues in WB.

If EC has the cojones to do something about this, they should at minimum file a voluminous report with GoI so the latter could invoke 356. That's what it has come down to, looks like.

The media seems to be completely missing in action though. I know there is no point asking, but where is the pressure on Mamata to ensure free and fair elections?

+1.

I have just been reading the discussions on what is going on in WB. Didi will certainly be expected to do anything and everything as the saffron wave advances towards Kolkata. I would be amazed if an organization like BJP has not accounted for this.

It is good if TMC has stockpiled amrutanjan, because Didi and her accomplices will need lots of it for many years after May 23.

sudeepj · Post by **sudeepj** » 29 Apr 2019 21:44

IndraD wrote:Madhya Pradesh, 65.77% polling till 5 pm. In 2014 it was 64.84%
Poll turnout in Rajasthan at 64.5% against 64.48% in 2014. In Anantnag, it was 10.5%, down from 36.34% in 2014(all figures at 5 pm)
In Jharkhand, 63.39% polling till 5 pm. In 2014 it was 63.82%
West Bengal, 76.44% polling till 5 pm. In 2014 it was 83.38%
In Maharashtra, 58.23% polling till 5 pm. In 2014 it was lower at 55.58%
In Odisha, 68% polling till 6 pm. In 2014 it was 73.75%
In UP, 57.58% polling till 5 pm. In 2014 it was 58.39%

Holy shit.. The 5pm reports see +3% when all the votes are tallied.

Almost every place is seeing ++++ voting compared to 2014.. Add to the 8.4 crore new voters, I feel safe in saying this is a wave election.. only question is, is it a tidal bore, or a tsunami.

rgosain · Post by **rgosain** » 29 Apr 2019 21:46

Kanson wrote:
Kanson wrote:NDA tally is 399
Update: even this number is bit conservative and could very well exceed. Dont want to put a number, but there is a high chance of NDA crossing the above 399 mark. Jai Hind!

What are you guys smoking.. Some of those numbers are hopelelessly optimistic and borne out of wishful thinking.

The SP-BSP alliance which was formed on the back of Cambs Analytika profiling of the individual UP wards, seems to have transferred their votes cleanly.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 29 Apr 2019 21:48

Kanson wrote:
Kanson wrote:NDA tally is 399
Update: even this number is bit conservative and could very well exceed. Dont want to put a number, but there is a high chance of NDA crossing the above 399 mark. Jai Hind!

Will you just stop it? Come on ... I already promised you a wine bottle

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 29 Apr 2019 21:49

chetak wrote:
Shanmukh wrote:
The lowest was Bommanahalli at 48% voting. After that, it was KR Puram at 50%. Neither can be said to be a middle class stronghold. In fact, middle class strongholds like Jayanagar, Padmanabhanagar and Basavanagudi saw 57-60% voting in Bengaluru.

Even on the day of polling, the lowest actual turnout in Bommanahalli was estimated at 47%. It went up by 1% to 48% in the final tally.

http://www.newindianexpress.com/states/ ... 66596.html

Please to see the ECI published data, saar, rather than rumours published by random people.

https://www.ceokarnataka.kar.nic.in/PCE ... urnout.pdf

Lowest is Bommannahalli at 47%, next are Dasarahalli and CV Raman Nagar at 49%, and then KR Puram at 50%.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 29 Apr 2019 21:51

Ishkaran Singh Bhandari
‏

@Ish_Bhandari

Today Voting shows BJP could do the wonder of increasing its 2014 score.

Can be 300+ in 2019.

He is so level headed. Demolished LW garbage with so much poise. Trained by SSwamy. Very very articulate. Has been taking up cases.

sudeepj · Post by **sudeepj** » 29 Apr 2019 21:53

rgosain wrote:
Kanson wrote: Update: even this number is bit conservative and could very well exceed. Dont want to put a number, but there is a high chance of NDA crossing the above 399 mark. Jai Hind!
What are you guys smoking.. Some of those numbers are hopelelessly optimistic and borne out of wishful thinking.

The SP-BSP alliance which was formed on the back of Cambs Analytika profiling of the individual UP wards, seems to have transferred their votes cleanly.

If this were the case, why is Azam Khan crying bitter tears in Rampur? There is never a clean transfer of votes. This is the reason why BSP supremo is mad at Congress.. Her votes transfer cleanly, Congress votes dont. Coming to 'Teh Votes', BSP vote is Jatavs, SP vote is Yadav+Muslim, that too Sunni muslims, not Shia. These three communities total about 30-35% of UP population, larger numbers in pockets. But Yadavs votes will see significant leakage when going for BSP Candidates. Congress acts as a vote-Katwa.

rgosain · Post by **rgosain** » 29 Apr 2019 21:54

Still have to be cautious though - remember 2004

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 29 Apr 2019 21:55

This Amrutanjan story is pointless fear mongering of low quality . I’m not claiming it hasn’t happened . The more important fact is that we are talking about WB here - they have been under
coercive voting regimes for two generations now . All that’s changed is the party name . I’m sure there are many more tricks besides Amrutanjan . None of it matters because people know they exist . They have also within the past decade overthrown a long time coercive party .

What’s more pertinent is how the CPM was deposed despite them doing all these too . The overthrow of TMC will be done by the same playbook . So the real question here is, how did the TMC beat the state power of the CPM a decade ago ? The BJPs job is ctrl-c ctrl-v .

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 29 Apr 2019 21:56

sudeepj wrote:
rgosain wrote:
What are you guys smoking.. Some of those numbers are hopelelessly optimistic and borne out of wishful thinking.

The SP-BSP alliance which was formed on the back of Cambs Analytika profiling of the individual UP wards, seems to have transferred their votes cleanly.
If this were the case, why is Azam Khan crying bitter tears in Rampur? There is never a clean transfer of votes. This is the reason why BSP supremo is mad at Congress.. Her votes transfer cleanly, Congress votes dont. Coming to 'Teh Votes', BSP vote is Jatavs, SP vote is Yadav+Muslim, that too Sunni muslims, not Shia. These three communities total about 30-35% of UP population, larger numbers in pockets. But Yadavs votes will see significant leakage when going for BSP Candidates. Congress acts as a vote-Katwa.

Rampur is near Muslim majority [49% Muslim]. All he needs is 1% of the votes to transfer to win.

rgosain · Post by **rgosain** » 29 Apr 2019 21:57

Point taken, but there is still too much confirmation biases. I am still trying too work out % probability for each of those seats given a transfer. Not easy.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 29 Apr 2019 21:59

Let me play Dilbu here and do a what-if scenario.
This is based upon nightmare of 2004.
What if after all the noise on SM and BRF, NDA barely is able to cross 272 with BJP left high and dry at 235-245. Do you think some of the partners would jump the ship and join some front with a pliable PM. After all who doesn't love a weak govt and opportunity to mint some money. So before we start celebrating Mr. PP, lets wait till 23rd May.
Hindus generally have not been very fortunate in the matters of Hindwi rulers.
I personally don't think NDA will do far better than last time. Maybe a 5%-7% jump in seats at the most. Don't forget last time, C-system had no idea of the hurricane they were flying into and got decimated. This time they are better prepared thanks to demographics.
There is a Modi wave no doubt but Tsunami, naaahhh!!

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 29 Apr 2019 22:00

rgosain wrote:
Kanson wrote: Update: even this number is bit conservative and could very well exceed. Dont want to put a number, but there is a high chance of NDA crossing the above 399 mark. Jai Hind!
What are you guys smoking.. Some of those numbers are hopelelessly optimistic and borne out of wishful thinking.

The SP-BSP alliance which was formed on the back of Cambs Analytika profiling of the individual UP wards, seems to have transferred their votes cleanly.

And Cambridge Analytica is accurate because ?

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 29 Apr 2019 22:03

Vikas wrote:Let me play Dilbu here and do a what-if scenario.
This is based upon nightmare of 2004.
What if after all the noise on SM and BRF, NDA barely is able to cross 272 with BJP left high and dry at 235-245. Do you think some of the partners would jump the ship and join some front with a pliable PM. After all who doesn't love a weak govt and opportunity to mint some money. So before we start celebrating Mr. PP, lets wait till 23rd May.
Hindus generally have not been very fortunate in the matters of Hindwi rulers.
I personally don't think NDA will do far better than last time. Maybe a 5%-7% jump in seats at the most. Don't forget last time, C-system had no idea of the hurricane they were flying into and got decimated. This time they are better prepared thanks to demographics.
There is a Modi wave no doubt but Tsunami, naaahhh!!

If BJP gets 230+, Congress would be <80. Under these circumstances, all the alliance partners [existing and potential] will discover the virtues of nationalism and Hindutva. If BJP gets <200 and Congress gets 100+, they will become secular and work to stop a communal government from coming to power.