2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 30 Apr 2019 01:41

Praveen Patil:The only problem for BJP going forward is that workers/leaders, sensing a wave, may become complacent in the next phases and may slack.
But this can work both ways. Opposition workers may as well get demoralised and simply stop working in the next phases.

https://twitter.com/5Forty3/status/1122 ... 00064?s=19

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 30 Apr 2019 01:48

https://twitter.com/AartiTikoo/status/1 ... 8129976322

Aarti Tikoo Singh
‏
Verified account

@AartiTikoo

I went to Pharsama, the native village of Vijay Soreng, one of the 44 CRPF jawans who was killed in the Pulwama terror attack on Feb 14. Asked his mother if his sacrifice for the nation was being politicized. Listen to what she said & whom the family voted for today in Jharkhand.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 30 Apr 2019 01:52

disha · Post by **disha** » 30 Apr 2019 02:02

I think we are naive to do lot of dhoti shivering and we do swing like pendulum from "lungi dancing" to "dhoti shivering" in an instance.

1. In 2014, if BJP/NaMo got > 200 seats, there would be lungi dancing all over. What happened was BJP itself getting a simple majority and we all were stunned into silence and started dhoti shivering for 2019 !!!

2. 2019 is well and here and now we are doing dhoti shivering because Pappu/Pappini and the Lootyens gang have an "Action Plan"!

Here is some news -

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 097021.cms

TMC's 40 MLAs in touch with him, claims PM Modi
PM Modi hit back at WB CM Mamata Banerjee saying TMC MLAs will desert their party once the BJP wins the general elections.

All BJP/NDA has to do is now cross >250 seats. It is doable. Of course, if it crosses >300 seats, then it is game over for Mamatha, Maya, Akhilesh, CBN and Pawar. They will be relegated as regional satraps for a long time to come.

For CONgoons, if it is <50, it must be split. India deserves a responsible opposition. CONgoon (PSP) (Pappu-Sonia-Pappini) and Congress (B) (Congress Bharat) can be formed and they can try to be national party.

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 30 Apr 2019 02:06

Lilo wrote: My gradation:
Google/Youtube>>Twitter=Amazon=M$>>>Facebook
Scroll/Wire/Quint/Altnews etc are all crossowned by benami entities in above Big tech & they use tweaked search algorithms to push to the top the stories of Scroll/Wire/Quint kind of online BIF fake news portals.

Must disagree with that gradation.

Note that per minute in 2019 there were 1 Million Facebook logins and 41.6 Million messages sent on Facebook Messenger plus WhatsApp (a FB company).

Compared to that, 87,500 users per minute on Twitter is nothing. In fact even Google (3.8 Million queries per minute) and Youtube (4.5 million videos watched per minute) are dwarfed by FB and its messaging-service companies.

Even considering just the US population, 68% of them are on Facebook and only 1/10th that proportion i.e. 7% of Americans are on Twitter. What would the figure for Indians on Twitter be? Even 1%?

I've read US opeds claiming that Twitter appears massively more influential than it actually is, because while only 5-10% of Americans use it, 100% of American journalists use it! So it is the proverbial shouting-bubble where the loudest voices congregate, giving the impression that it's where all dialogue happens. Because so many journos use it, it's a good place to give it back to journos

but not for much else. Has less influence on elections than even the English news channels on Indian cable TV, which by themselves have very small viewer bases.

amdavadi · Post by **amdavadi** » 30 Apr 2019 02:22

One state CM ready to support bjp+ in case short of numbers. Bjp said fiker not.

Lilo · Post by **Lilo** » 30 Apr 2019 02:30

Rudradev wrote:Must disagree with that gradation.
[img https://a1.allaccess.com/assets/img/con ... 5-pic1.jpg[/img]

^
RD ji,
I agree regarding the relative influence of each SM platform & its likely to be same wrt India.

Let me however clarify that in below quoted i was giving the gradation wrt to overt globalist BIF tilt each SM/Tech giant has relative to one another.

Lilo wrote: My gradation:
Google/Youtube>>Twitter=Amazon=M$>>>Facebook
Scroll/Wire/Quint/Altnews etc are all crossowned by benami entities in above Big tech & they use tweaked search algorithms to push to the top the stories of Scroll/Wire/Quint/BBC hindi kind of online BIF fake news portals.

Google search,Youtube,Google suggested news on chrome/smartphone search etc are far more skewed pushing wire/quint/scroll/caravan/altnews/janata ka reporter etc propaganda compared to facebook.There are 300 million smartphones in India. And 99% are with android and without doing even a search the welcome screen in search bar & chrome browser are populated with english as well as vernacular languages(based on phone language being used) BIF propaganda news articles from BBC hindi/urdu/marathi/tamil , Wire (hindi) etc.
Here is one recent example >> viewtopic.php?f=1&t=7704&p=2344729#p2344729 i posted few pages back on how even effing Youtube is redirecting to Quint "fact checks" full of spurious analysis & half-lies trying to influence even a simple video search for "modi interview" . No such fact checks turn up for "Rahul interview" or "Mamta interview" for example.

sudeepj · Post by **sudeepj** » 30 Apr 2019 02:42

Virtually every seat that the BJP was competitive in 2014, they are still competitive in.

In addition, they are competitive in:
West Bengal (42 seats),
Odisha (19 seats),
Some small number of seats in Kerala. They have entered into an alliance with a caste based party here..
Some small number of seats in TN. Post Amma, post that fat one eyed chap..
Some small number of seats in the NE excluding Assam.
Some vanishingly small number of seats in Telugu speaking areas.
i.e 75 seats BJP is now competitive on, that it wasnt competitive on earlier.

In opposition, there are two major alliances that are posing a challenge to the BJP in the seats it dominated in 2014.. the Congress-NCP in Maharashtra (49 seats) and the SP-BSP in UP (80 seats). i.e there is a serious alliance in 129 seats where the opposition vote was divided earlier.

Elsewhere, such as Rajasthan, MP, Gujarat.. the picture is unchanged from 2014. Its Congress vs the BJP.

So the entire election will be decided in these (70 + 129) seats. In my subjective judgement, Congress-NCP has proved to be a major disappointment in Mh, so much so, that their star campaigner is someone who is not from their party and not running for elections..! (Raj Thackeray) and Sena/BJP is poised to repeat their performance.

As for rest of India, when you talk to the english medium/JNU types, they have all sorts of sophisticated sociological theories..

When you talk to the masses, they dont have these theories.. They say, '..ghus ke mara..'. This emotion of the common people.. being tortured first by Pakistanis, and then by the pusillanimity of our successive govts. is seriously under estimated by the cynical educated types.

Lilo · Post by **Lilo** » 30 Apr 2019 02:49

The Echo System is ready 2 go to court on May 23rd - JaiSingh asking who is Vacation Judge followed by wire articles - Whole idea is to de-Legitimise the sure victory of @narendramodi in one way or other - Req folks to come out in Large numbers & vote for him #IndiaVotesForNaMo

https://twitter.com/centerofright/statu ... 7766577153

Every trick foreign BIF book is being used to tilt or delegitimize the outcome if all else fails.

sudeepj · Post by **sudeepj** » 30 Apr 2019 02:57

Lilo wrote:
Rudradev wrote:Must disagree with that gradation.
[img https://a1.allaccess.com/assets/img/con ... 5-pic1.jpg[/img]
^
RD ji,
I agree regarding the relative influence of each SM platform & its likely to be same wrt India.

Let me however clarify that in below quoted i was giving the gradation wrt to overt globalist BIF tilt each SM/Tech giant has relative to one another.
Lilo wrote: My gradation:
Google/Youtube>>Twitter=Amazon=M$>>>Facebook
Scroll/Wire/Quint/Altnews etc are all crossowned by benami entities in above Big tech & they use tweaked search algorithms to push to the top the stories of Scroll/Wire/Quint/BBC hindi kind of online BIF fake news portals.
Google News,Youtube,Google suggested News on chrome/smartphone search etc are far more skewed pushing wire/quint/scroll/caravan/altnews/janata ka reporter etc propaganda compared to facebook as an example.There are 300 million smartphones in India. And most are with android and even a simple search is turning up even in vernacular languages BIF propaganda news articles from BBC hindi/urdu/marathi/tamil , Wire (hindi) etc.
Here is one recent example >> viewtopic.php?f=1&t=7704&p=2344729#p2344729 i posted few pages back on how even effing Youtube is redirecting to Quint "fact checks" full of spurious analysis & half-lies trying to influence even a simple video search for "modi interview" . No such fact checks turn up for "Rahul interview" or "Mamta interview" for example.

Social media is there in the election.. but the constipated recrudescence of quint types is not what is consumed. What is consumed is Mamata Rangili. Who is she? She is a rather buxom woman whose thumkas have the largest vertical and horizontal displacements in recorded history.. She has done viral songs titled 'deo vote modi ji ko'. Its a Rajasthani song.. with over 28 million views.. Total number of voters in Rajasthan is about 30 million.

I used to think.. all the intellectual fulminations and theories effect elections. After seeing Mamta Rangili.. I changed my mind. Dont worry, have curry. For your viewing pleasure:

(Fair warning, all these songs are terrible ear worms..

)

For Bhojpuri audiences, 9 million views:

For a more metrosexual audience:

OmkarC · Post by **OmkarC** » 30 Apr 2019 03:13

amdavadi wrote:One state CM ready to support bjp+ in case short of numbers. Bjp said fiker not.

Please let it not be KCR !

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 30 Apr 2019 03:40

sudeepj wrote: In opposition, there are two major alliances that are posing a challenge to the BJP in the seats it dominated in 2014.. the Congress-NCP in Maharashtra (49 seats) and the SP-BSP in UP (80 seats). i.e there is a serious alliance in 129 seats where the opposition vote was divided earlier.

Congress-NCP is not a new alliance. They were allied even in 2014 but got swept away by the Modi wave. Only difference this time around is Raj Thackeray switching from pro to anti-Modi and campaigning for Cong-NCP. He is less than useless however. An utter failure trying to be relevant as his own party fades into obscurity.

VinodTK · Post by **VinodTK** » 30 Apr 2019 03:44

amdavadi wrote:One state CM ready to support bjp+ in case short of numbers. Bjp said fiker not.

Good news every MP counts.

sudeepj · Post by **sudeepj** » 30 Apr 2019 03:55

nachiket wrote:
sudeepj wrote: In opposition, there are two major alliances that are posing a challenge to the BJP in the seats it dominated in 2014.. the Congress-NCP in Maharashtra (49 seats) and the SP-BSP in UP (80 seats). i.e there is a serious alliance in 129 seats where the opposition vote was divided earlier.
Congress-NCP is not a new alliance. They were allied even in 2014 but got swept away by the Modi wave. Only difference this time around is Raj Thackeray switching from pro to anti-Modi and campaigning for Cong-NCP. He is less than useless however. An utter failure trying to be relevant as his own party fades into obscurity.

They were there in 14 also, my point is that these two fights are '51% ki ladai' with not much vote splitting. Everywhere else, there is no coalition. (Bihar has one, but the BJP, JDU, LJP alliance is unbeatable).

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 30 Apr 2019 04:10

Modi government’s Saubhagya scheme lives up to its billing

Lauded by the International Energy Agency (IEA) as one of the greatest successes in the history of electrification, the Pradhan Mantri Sahaj Bijli Har Ghar Yojana (Saubhagya scheme) has raised the bar on implementation of government programmes, almost managing to meet its target of providing power to all unconnected households by March 31, 2019. Since its launch in September, 2017, 2.62 crore households have been provided with power connections, with only 18,734 households in extremism-affected Chhattisgarh remaining to be covered under the scheme.

With a total outlay of Rs 16,320 crore including budgetary support of Rs 12,320 crore, the Saubhagya scheme mandated all willing households in rural areas and poor households in urban areas being given free electricity connections. Unelectrified households which fell outside the stipulated segments were given connections on payment of Rs 500. In remote and inaccessible places where grid extension was not feasible or cost-effective, solar-based standalone systems have been provided.

Saubhagya’s launch was seen as an extension of government policy that had targetted electrifying all villages. The power ministry had reported the electrification of all of India’s 5,97,464 inhabited villages in April, 2018 — there were 18,452 unelectrified villages in India when the Narendra Modi government took over in May, 2014.

To enthuse discoms, Power Minister RK Singh announced rewards of Rs 100 crore for entities which met the Saubhagya targets first. The power ministry also partnered with the ministry of skill development and entrepreneurship to train manpower in six states. Around 47,000 people have been trained as distribution linemen and 8,500 as technical helpers for the purpose.

Of its impact, Somesh Kumar, partner and national leader, power and utilities,EY India says, “the scheme has the potential to provide a much-needed thrust to the rural economy, given that power is one of the most essential ingredients of economic growth.” The growth in power demand is also expected to help power plants that are without power purchase agreements. As per preliminary estimates, with an average load of 1 KW per household and average use for eight hours a day, an additional 28,000 MW would be needed every year to meet the demand created under Saubhagya.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 30 Apr 2019 04:30

Sala PAPPU can't satisfy even 5% .. what do you think it will result in? 120 seats for CON party?

SriKumar · Post by **SriKumar** » 30 Apr 2019 04:48

sudeepj wrote: She is a rather buxom woman whose thumkas have the largest vertical and horizontal displacements in recorded history.. She has done viral songs titled 'deo vote modi ji ko'. Its a Rajasthani song.. with over 28 million views.. .

....as you know, this is a data-driven forum. The above are unsubstantiated claims...please post supporting data for inspection.

. Please be assured that it will receive all the needed scrutiny from my side , including moment of inertia calculations if needed (to determine....the radius of gyration ).

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 30 Apr 2019 04:50

SriKumar wrote:
sudeepj wrote: She is a rather buxom woman whose thumkas have the largest vertical and horizontal displacements in recorded history.. She has done viral songs titled 'deo vote modi ji ko'. Its a Rajasthani song.. with over 28 million views.. Total number of voters in Rajasthan is about 30 million.
....as you know, this is a data-driven forum and is being being carefully watched and curated by Suraj himself. It is purely in this spirit (and nothing else) that I request that you provide some supporting data to your claim above (bolded). Please be assured that it will receive all the needed scrutiny from my side , including moment of inertia calculations if needed (to determine....the radius of gyration ).

Yes, please post data, or more such videos

sudeepj · Post by **sudeepj** » 30 Apr 2019 04:59

SriKumar wrote:
sudeepj wrote: She is a rather buxom woman whose thumkas have the largest vertical and horizontal displacements in recorded history.. She has done viral songs titled 'deo vote modi ji ko'. Its a Rajasthani song.. with over 28 million views.. Total number of voters in Rajasthan is about 30 million.
....as you know, this is a data-driven forum and is being being carefully watched and curated by Suraj himself. It is purely in this spirit (and nothing else) that I request that you provide some supporting data to your claim above (bolded). Please be assured that it will receive all the needed scrutiny from my side , including moment of inertia calculations if needed (to determine....the radius of gyration ).

But seriously.. we think the common man is affected by all these poly-syllable english words. Fact is, no one beyond a few useless JNU jholawallahs care. The emotional chords of the common man are in a different song book. This may change if we let commie thugs set our educational curriculum. But for now, I think the unwashed, baniyan/dhoti clad, superstitious, vernacular type of person may have saved us.

SriKumar · Post by **SriKumar** » 30 Apr 2019 05:22

Suraj wrote:
SriKumar wrote: ....as you know, this is a data-driven forum and is being being carefully watched and curated by Suraj himself. It is purely in this spirit (and nothing else) that I request that you provide some supporting data to your claim above (bolded). Please be assured that it will receive all the needed scrutiny from my side , including moment of inertia calculations if needed (to determine....the radius of gyration ).
Yes, please post data, or more such videos

Indeed, I meant the videos. Goes without saying we are willing to go the extra mile for the cause of data-based conclusions...and convert images into processible data. And in case any one is wondering...there is a physics-based quantity called radius of gyration.. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radius_of_gyration (mis-fortunately though, not inspired by Mamta Rangili). My last on this.

Lilo · Post by **Lilo** » 30 Apr 2019 05:35

https://youtu.be/nbKUiM_klAE

Video of Muslims from TamilNadu at the Kaaba in Mecca praying for destruction of the #RSS and @BJP4India. https://twitter.com/TarekFatah/status/1 ... 5206771712

banrjeer · Post by **banrjeer** » 30 Apr 2019 05:54

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailyo ... 24788.html

Good direction ..only caution is tribal culture identity should be promoted / incorporated first vs urban Hindu culture

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 30 Apr 2019 06:07

spoke to a long time worker of VHP/RSS.

Right now the projections are 290 for NDA and 245-255 for BJP ... They are comfortable with these numbers. UP is a challenge. Bengal as it stands 15 but can go up to 30. Orissa is good too.

We are getting overconfident based on 5Forty3 and Chintamani predictions.

one more interesting thing ... Rural voters are voting strong and there is very very strong undercurrent. He said JanDhan is benefiting us a a lot in this election.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 30 Apr 2019 06:33

No one is going overboard on Patil or Chintamani or Savyasachi prognosis.
BJP confidence is from their karyakartas hard work and contact with voting public.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 30 Apr 2019 06:40

Shanmukh,
Azam Khan will go back to looking after his buffalos.

It's over for him in Rampur.

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 30 Apr 2019 06:50

ramana wrote:Shanmukh,
Azam Khan will go back to looking after his buffalos.

It's over for him in Rampur.

How? In 2014, SP, INC and BSP had each fielded a Muslim candidate in Rampur. Three of them together got nearly 60% of the votes with SP's Naseer Ahmed Khan getting 35%. The BJP candidate was Hindu and beat them all with 37%. This time, there is no BSP candidate and INC candidate is Hindu. I don't see how Azam Khan can lose.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 30 Apr 2019 06:53

Guys lungi/dhoti shivering is right for dealing with uncertainity or black swan or unkown unknowns.
I submit we are in risk area or known unknowns.
Here you have to look at the risk and it's probabity of occurrence and consequence to manage it.

My analysis was UP and Karnataka are the key. First state due to volume and latter state due to fractious party there. Nominating Tejasvi Surya ended that. The polling in Western, Central UP reduced risk in UP. Another was having Chattisgarh and Telugu states on one day. Stopped cross state campaigns interfering with each other.

Now am quietly confident barring black swan.

To deal with that you need a flexible agile system.
The BJP reacting after the December three state loss show it's agility to respond.

On other hand see how Rahul is stuck on Rafale and chor message. This is called fogging in psychology.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 30 Apr 2019 06:54

Nachiket we shall see on 23 May.

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 30 Apr 2019 06:57

vijayk wrote:spoke to a long time worker of VHP/RSS.

Right now the projections are 290 for NDA and 245-255 for BJP ... They are comfortable with these numbers. UP is a challenge. Bengal as it stands 15 but can go up to 30. Orissa is good too.

We are getting overconfident based on 5Forty3 and Chintamani predictions.

one more interesting thing ... Rural voters are voting strong and there is very very strong undercurrent. He said JanDhan is benefiting us a a lot in this election.

Before elections started, NDA getting magic figure was general feeling in other parivar orgs. Much cautious due to 2004 effect and not fall into trap.

Rahul Gandhi had a chance but blew it to wait for next elections due to INC numbers so only alternative to BJP seems to be Hodge podge of parties. If NDA is short they seem to have worked out some contingencies which started year ago.

siddhu · Post by **siddhu** » 30 Apr 2019 07:29

ramana wrote:No one is going overboard on Patil or Chintamani or Savyasachi prognosis.
BJP confidence is from their karyakartas hard work and contact with voting public.

Don't know about other areas. My area despite repeated requests no campaign was done. Don't know if they became complacent or some higher politics at play.

Lilo · Post by **Lilo** » 30 Apr 2019 07:49

siddhu wrote:
ramana wrote:No one is going overboard on Patil or Chintamani or Savyasachi prognosis.
BJP confidence is from their karyakartas hard work and contact with voting public.
Don't know about other areas. My area despite repeated requests no campaign was done. Don't know if they became complacent or some higher politics at play.

What is your area?
Does your area fall anywhere in the districts mentioned in below quoted(district wise AP) statistic ?

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 30 Apr 2019 08:46

this is likely the story of many many areas in bengal

https://swarajyamag.com/politics/no-lon ... for-change

POLITICS
No Longer An ‘Abode Of Peace’, Restive Birbhum Yearns For Change
by Jaideep Mazumdar

- Apr 28, 2019, 5:20 pm

Birbhum BJP candidate Dudh Kumar Mondal (in white) and party leader Rupa Ganguly on the campaign trail in Nalhatier Shitolgram.
Birbhum BJP candidate Dudh Kumar Mondal (in white) and party leader Rupa Ganguly on the campaign trail in Nalhatier Shitolgram.
Snapshot
Once a ‘Shanti Niketan’, Tagore’s Birbhum is under serious threat of being taken over by radical Islamists.

Criminal mafias, mainly Muslim, are forcibly taking control of Hindu areas. This has produced widespread resentment among Hindus, who are now realising the importance of BJP.

Birbhum occupies a special place in the hearts and minds of Bengalis. The district in western-central Bengal hosts Rabindranath Tagore’s Visva Bharati University in Shantiniketan (the ‘abode of peace) and had been closely associated with fine arts, culture, bauls (wandering Sufi minstrels), handicrafts and scenic landscapes.

But today, Birbhum has become synonymous with crime syndicates that control illegal quarrying and sand mining, poverty, communal violence, social distrust and disharmony, and severe environmental degradation.

The citizenry of Birbhum - it means the land (bhumi) of the brave (bir) - today remain in perpetual fear of its murderous mafia and their autocratic political patrons. What was considered to be Birbhum’s beauty in the past - its hills (the lower part of the Chota Nagpur Plateau) and its many rivers - have now become its bane. And the social harmony of the past has been irretrievably shattered.

Stone quarrying and mining sand from the dry beds of its rivers has not only scarred the once-famous beauty of Birbhum, but also led to the growth of crime syndicates and mafia rings. That is because most of these highly lucrative activities are illegal. The hills yield high- quality black stone which is sought after by the construction industry, while the superior-grade sand mined from Birbhum’s rivers is used not only in construction, but also for making cement, quartz and silica.

This entire business has come to be controlled by a few Muslims who have turned into mafia dons. Since the mining is mostly illegal, they maintain armed gangs of criminals. And they have the ruling politicians, the police and the administration in their pockets. The members of the gangs are also Muslims, and they have also become very rich. The huge cash generated by this mining, the easy access to arms and the state administration, and the buying off of politicians, has made the mafia dons and their henchmen laws unto themselves and spawned a criminal culture in Birbhum.

On the other hand, the Hindus of Birbhum, though a majority, are largely poor. Most Hindus are land-owners and farmers, and agricultural distress has impoverished them. The rest of the Hindus are either professionals - doctors, teachers and engineers - or engaged in government and private jobs or small businessmen and traders. Thus, the Hindus are nowhere nearly as cash-rich as the Muslims. This has resulted in Muslims buying off land from the Hindus at above-market rates and many Hindu-majority areas of Birbhum are slowly turning into Muslim-majority ones.

Communal disharmony

The Hindu-majority areas undergoing a demographic change has triggered social and communal discord in Birbhum. A discord that has, in recent years, often erupted in the many minor and major incidents of communal clashes. Even in district headquarters Suri, many Hindu-majority localities are undergoing a change in demography and character.

The change in demography is not an innocent one. “There are two aspects to this. Rich Muslims and some Muslim charity organisations are buying large tracts of land in Hindu-majority areas and settling poor Muslims, mainly illegal Bangladeshis and Rohingyas, in those areas.

These Muslim families live in ghetto-like conditions and indulge in petty crimes targeted at Hindus. They start harassing their Hindu neighbours, especially the womenfolk, and once they become sizeable in numbers, they start asserting themselves very aggressively,” said Monojit Majumdar, a school teacher and a resident of Kali Mandir road in Suri.

A major thoroughfare in Suri is the J.L. Banerjee Road, named after prominent advocate and freedom fighter Jitendra Lal Banerjee. All Hindu processions, like those for immersion of Durga murtis, used to take this road. A little over two decades ago, a small madrassa came up on this road and has now turned into a major one with hundreds of students.

The Muslims have re-named the road as ‘Madrassa Road’ and over the last few years, have been raising vociferous objections to any procession by Hindus passing through this road. The administration and the police, not surprisingly, have quietly acquiesced and Hindus are no longer allowed to take their religious processions through this road.

“As long as I can remember, only Hindus have been residing in Lalkuthi (in Suri). But about two decades ago, Muslims started buying land and houses from the Hindus and there are many Muslim families residing in my area. Nothing wrong with that, except that they are very aggressive, indulge in petty crimes, and disturb and harass our womenfolk. They never live like good neighbours and are very hostile towards us. They have started raising objections to blowing of conch shells and ringing of bells during the daily pujas in our homes and we no longer feel safe walking the lanes that pass through their houses,” said Biswanath Chakraborty, a respected figure who used to teach history at Visva-Bharati University.

New Muslim localities have also come up. “Cash-rich Muslims have bought lands from Hindus and have set up their exclusive enclaves. Two such enclaves in Suri are the ‘Madrassa Pally’ (‘pally’ means locality in Bengali) and the ‘Sajano Pally’. The Muslims wanted to name the latter as ‘Shah Jahan Pally’, but we objected vehemently because an ancient mandir stands there,” said Sambhunath Ghorai, a trader. Needless to say, these two areas have become ‘no-go’ zones for Hindus and many say that a lot of suspicious activities have been sighted there.

A few years ago, Birbhum’s Kanglapahari village came in the news when the Hindus there were denied permission by the district administration to hold their annual Durga Puja due to objections raised by Muslims who were in a minority in the village. Ultimately, the Calcutta High Court ordered the administration to grant permission. But tension still persists in the village and locals say a concerted effort is being made to settle a huge number of Bangladeshis and Rohingyas in the village. Objections are being raised in recent years by Muslims of Rampurhat (a small town in Birbhum) over the holding of a large Durga Puja there.

BJP president Amit Shah addressing a rally in Gonpur village, Birbhum. Also seen is party candidate Dudh Kumar Mondal and other leaders.
BJP president Amit Shah addressing a rally in Gonpur village, Birbhum. Also seen is party candidate Dudh Kumar Mondal and other leaders.
A little over three years ago, in March 2016, rampaging Muslims mobs attacked and destroyed Hindu houses and properties in Ilambazar over an alleged Facebook post by a Hindu boy that was deemed derogatory to Islam. The boy, an engineering student, was arrested, but Muslim mobs baying for his blood attacked the police station and tried to take away the accused. The boy’s family and many Hindus had to flee Ilambazar, a temple town that was once a Hindu-majority area before Muslims started settling down there and renamed it as Ilambazar.

In November 2016, a Hindu trader at Mollarpur in Birbhum was attacked (read this) over his refusal to donate a huge sum of money that Muslims had demanded for Muharram. He died a few days later and the death sparked clashes, but the media blamed Hindus for the trouble. There have been many minor clashes between Hindus and Muslims, and locals blame Muslims for their growing aggressiveness.

Hindus of Birbhum cite ‘love jihad’ as another major concern. “Muslim boys and young men deliberately target Hindu girls, entice them and marry them after forcibly converting them to Islam. We receive so many complaints from hapless parents of such girls, and have been able to help some of them. But many others cannot be rescued and once they realise what they have done, it’s too late. Many Hindu girls who have married Muslim men and been converted to Islam live hellish lives in purdah, but we cannot help them,” said a leader of the Birbhum chapter of the Hindu Jagran Manch. All Hindu parents now make it a point to escort their daughters to and from schools and colleges.

Birbhum has become a major transit hub for cattle smuggling too. “Cattle brought in illegally through Jharkhand transits through Birbhum before being transported to Murshidabad and then on to Bangladesh. Murarai, Sukhbazar and Rajnagar are the three cattle markets and all the cattle traders and transporters are Muslims.

The police, of course, look the other way since they are bribed and also because all those involved are Muslims,” said Rabi Mondal, a retired schoolteacher who resides at Paikar village through which an estimated one hundred trucks bearing cattle pass through on the way to Murshidabad. Mondal says that in the past, some such trucks transporting cattle illegally were detained by the police and the cattle rescued, but intervention from ruling party politicians and senior officers resulted in them being returned to the smugglers.

Hindu Anger And Polarisation

All this has led to growing anger and resentment among Hindus and the consolidation of the Hindu vote against the Trinamool Congress. That is because the Trinamool is being blamed for the growing aggressiveness of Muslims and the resultant victimisation of Hindus.

“Since 2011, when the Trinamool came to power in Bengal, appeasement of Muslims has peaked and they (the Muslims) are being given a free hand to indulge in all sorts of criminal activities. Hindus are being targeted and being subjected to atrocities, and the administration under the Trinamool is turning a blind eye,” alleged Shamik Chatterjee, a BJP activist. A large section of Hindus, who are hurt and angry, agree with Chatterjee.

“If all this can happen when Hindus are in a numerical majority here, can you imagine the plight of Hindus in Muslim-majority areas. Hindus have been forced to migrate away from areas that have turned Muslim-majority. What also troubles us is that under the Trinamool regime, crimes against Hindus and harassment of Hindus has increased phenomenally. We feel as if we have become second-class citizens. The Muslim ganglords and mafia give money to the Trinamool politicians here and to the police, so crimes against Hindus are covered up. This cannot go on,” said Saumitra Poddar, a medical practitioner in Suri town.

Significantly, the Santhals who form about 8 per cent of the population of Birbhum, have also joined the ranks of the hurt and angry Hindus. That is because the Santhal-populated areas of Mohammad Bazar, Nalhati, Rampurhat and Murarai administrative blocks form the ‘stone belt’ of Birbhum where stone is being mined illegally.

The impoverished Santhals (all Scheduled Tribes) have become workers in these illegal stone quarries and are a highly exploited lot. “They (the adivasis or santhals) are forced to work for long hours at measly wages by the Muslim quarry owners. The Muslim henchmen of these quarry owners target and exploit Santhal women and even small girls are not spared by them.

Their lands have been taken over forcibly or by deceit and their environment has been destroyed. They have lost everything, and are very angry,” said Sumati Handsa, a tribal welfare activist.

Constituency Profile

The Birbhum Lok Sabha constituency comprises seven Assembly segments: Dubrajpur, Suri, Sainthia, Rampurhat, Hansan, Nalhati and Murarai. All these Assembly seats, except Hansan, were bagged by the Trinamool in the 2016 Assembly polls. The Congress won the Hansan seat. The BJP finished in third position in all the seats in 2016 as well as the 2011 Assembly polls, but the vote share of the saffron party increased significantly in 2016 as compared to 2011.

The Left had won the Sainthia and Dubrajpur Assembly seats in 2011 and the Congress had bagged the Hansan and Nalhati seats that year while the remaining three had gone to the Trinamool. Before that, the Left has been winning all the Assembly seats and Birbhum was once considered a communist citadel. However, the BJP has always had a strong presence in Rampurhat and Nalhati.

In the 2014 Parliamentary polls, Trinamool’s Satabdi Roy, a former Bengali film actor, bagged the seat with 36.09 per cent votes while the CPM’s Mohammed Qamre Elahi polled 30.82 per cent votes.

The BJP’s Joy Banerjee finished in third position with a 10.35 per cent vote share. In the 2009 parliamentary polls, Shatabdi Roy (Trinamool) had got 47.82 per cent votes while the CPM’s Braja Mukherjee had polled 41.77 per cent votes and the BJP candidate Tapas Mukherjee’s vote share was 4.62 per cent. Thus, while Shatabdi Roy’s vote share declined by 11.73 per cent in 2014, the CPM’s declined by 10.95 per cent. The BJP improved its performance significantly by increasing its vote share by 5.73 per cent.

The Birbhum Lok Sabha seat was bagged consistently for 10 successive terms by the CPM from 1971 to 2004 till the Trinamool wrested it from the Marxists in 2009. For the first four terms between 1952 and 1971, Birbhum was represented in the Lok Sabha by the Congress. The communists started emerging as a strong force here only in the early 1960s and since 1971 when it bagged the seat, the Congress has been the main contender for power.

However, the Hindu Mahasabha had a very early presence here and its candidates - Nitya Narayan Bandopadhyay and Manmatha Nath Das - polled nearly 18 per cent and 23 per cent votes in the 1952 and 1957 Lok Sabha elections respectively. The BJP also secured the second position in the 1998 and 1999 Lok Sabha elections, polling a respectable 28.23 per cent and 29.93 per cent votes respectively.

Hindus form a majority of 63 per cent of the 14,95,108 voters of Birbhum Lok Sabha seat while Muslims form the remaining 37 per cent. Among the Hindus, Scheduled Castes and OBCs account for a sizeable chunk of 30 per cent and the Scheduled Tribes (adivasis) form about 8 per cent. The adivasis, or santhals, are a decisive factor in Sainthia and Rampurhat Assembly segments. Muslims are mainly concentrated in Nalhati, Murarai, Hansan and some parts of Rampurhat Assembly segments.

Poll Arithmetic And Issues

The anger amongst Hindus over appeasement of Muslims by the ruling Trinamool and the resultant aggressiveness and assertiveness by Muslims has resulted in a majority of the Hindus rallying firmly behind the BJP. Significantly, apart from the exploited Santhals, a large section of the SCs and OBCs among Hindus have also shifted their allegiance to the BJP, which was for long considered to be a party of upper-caste Hindus.

This is evident from the fact that while tens of thousands of men and women, including youngsters, from the SC and OBC communities have joined the BJP in recent months, many from these communities occupy important organisational posts in the saffron party. There is a visible and voluble evidence of support for the BJP on the ground in Birbhum with rallies and processions being taken out in every nook and corner of the constituency. Cries of ‘Jai Shri Ram’ and ‘Bharat Mata Ki Jai’ rent the politically-charged air every so often.

And over the past couple of years, Ram Navami, Hanuman Jayanti and Ganesh Chaturthi have become an important part of the Hindu festival calendar here. These religious festivals are often celebrated in the same grand manner as the Bengalis’ traditional Durga Puja.

“That those participating in Ram Navami processions are mostly Bengalis is significant since this celebration is new to Bengal. But the fact that this, along with Hanuman Jayanti and Ganesh Chaturthi, have become an integral part of Bengali Hindu festivals is the result of very hard, long and consistent work by the Sangh Parivar. This is the fruition of the Sangh Parivar’s grand project to unite Hindus and create a pan-Hindu identity,” said Mrinmoy Banerjee, a teacher of sociology at a private college in Birbhum.

The Muslims have also rallied behind the Trinamool and there are reports of Muslim clerics having issued diktats to the community after the jumma prayers last Friday that they should vote en masse for the Trinamool. But the CPM and the Congress have fielded Muslim candidates - Rezaul Karim and Imam Hossain respectively. Both have considerable influence within their own community and are expected to get a good number of votes. Thus, they will cut into Trinamool votes, thus giving an advantage to the BJP.

Trinamool has re-nominated Satabdi Roy from Birbhum, but her earlier appeal has waned considerably. “She has done nothing to improve the economy and the plight of the poor in Birbhum. Though most of the people here are engaged in agriculture, returns from farming are dwindling every year and most of the farmlands are dependent on rainwater.

There are no irrigation facilities and power supply is intermittent. Illegal stone and sand mining have increased and so have criminal activities. Local Trinamool leaders are corrupt, high-handed and repressive and the police have also become repressive. There is little respect for democracy and human rights. Suri, Rampurhat and Bolpur towns are a civic mess and Satabdi Roy as well as the Trinamool MLAs or the Trinamool government in the state have done nothing to address these issues,” said Ramprasad Mondal, a prominent citizen of Suri.

The Trinamool is also riven by factional feuds and its Birbhum strongman, Anubrata Mondal, has not put his considerable weight behind Satabdi Roy. Roy’s rallies and meetings have not attracted much crowds and many lower-rung Trinamool functionaries and workers who are highly disgruntled are covertly supporting and aiding the BJP.

The BJP’s Dudh Kumar Mondal is a strong candidate, whose organisational and political skills are well-acknowledged. He is an old BJP hand in the district and has a very good rapport with party functionaries and workers at the ground level. The BJP has also been able to enrol tens of thousands of new members over the past five years and is organisationally very strong in Birbhum.

The BJP, thus, has a very bright chance of bagging Birbhum. And if that happens, a dream of the founders and stalwarts of the Hindu Mahasabha, which had made its presence felt in Birbhum immediately before and after Independence, will be fulfilled.

ani_sharma · Post by **ani_sharma** » 30 Apr 2019 09:32

Rudradev wrote:
Lilo wrote: My gradation:
Google/Youtube>>Twitter=Amazon=M$>>>Facebook
Scroll/Wire/Quint/Altnews etc are all crossowned by benami entities in above Big tech & they use tweaked search algorithms to push to the top the stories of Scroll/Wire/Quint kind of online BIF fake news portals.
Must disagree with that gradation.

Note that per minute in 2019 there were 1 Million Facebook logins and 41.6 Million messages sent on Facebook Messenger plus WhatsApp (a FB company).

Compared to that, 87,500 users per minute on Twitter is nothing. In fact even Google (3.8 Million queries per minute) and Youtube (4.5 million videos watched per minute) are dwarfed by FB and its messaging-service companies.

Even considering just the US population, 68% of them are on Facebook and only 1/10th that proportion i.e. 7% of Americans are on Twitter. What would the figure for Indians on Twitter be? Even 1%?

I've read US opeds claiming that Twitter appears massively more influential than it actually is, because while only 5-10% of Americans use it, 100% of American journalists use it! So it is the proverbial shouting-bubble where the loudest voices congregate, giving the impression that it's where all dialogue happens. Because so many journos use it, it's a good place to give it back to journos but not for much else. Has less influence on elections than even the English news channels on Indian cable TV, which by themselves have very small viewer bases.

I kind of agree with this.. Google is promoting a BBC article abt kanhaiya, this is when I haven't opened BBC for last few years.
I might have read some articles/video abt him, but then why only left leaning suggestions?
In all this is a failure of Google algorithm in two ways.. First it is not a customer centric suggestion, second.. I am no fence sitter.. I cannot be converted coz i dont even open such crap articles.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 30 Apr 2019 09:39

Take this haters

https://www.hindustantimes.com/lok-sabh ... ob3vO.html

India’s financial capital recorded a moderate bump in turnout on Monday with a number of Bollywood actors and industry captains casting their vote from one of the six constituencies in the coastal city that recorded its best polling figures in 30 years.
The voting percentage stood at 55.11 at 6 pm, surpassing the average in 2014 of 51.59%, the previous highest. The city had recorded a turnout of 41.4% in 2009. The total number of electors in Mumbai this time was lower than the 2014 number by 259,857. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its ally, the Shiv Sena, held three seats each, while in the opposition alliance, the Congress is fighting on five seats and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) is contesting on one. The highest turnout in the city was recorded in the Mumbai north constituency (59.32%) , where actor Urmila Matondkar of the Congress contested against sitting BJP MP Gopal Shetty. The Mumbai North Central constituency, which saw a turnout of 52.84%,, could witness a tough contest between Congress’s Priya Dutt and BJP’s Poonam Mahajan. Bandra (West) recorded the lowest among the six segments in the constituency, with a turnout of 50.01 %. Mumbai South-Central seat saw a turnout of 55.35%. The contest is between the Sena’s Rahul Shewale and former Congress MP Eknath Gaikwad.
The Mumbai North-East constituency saw a turnout of 56.31% turnout with the suburb of Mulund and Ghatkopar East leading with 60.10% and 60.30% respectively. Both neighborhoods are heavily populated by Gujaratis. The BJP’s Manoj Kotak is taking on the NCP’s Sanjay Dina Patil.
In South Mumbai, which finished at 52.15% turnout, two-time Congress MP Milind Deora is hoping for a comeback against Shiv Sena’s sitting MP Arvind Sawant. The upscale Malabar Hill area saw the highest voting in this constituency at 56%.
In the Mumbai North-West constituency, where Sena MP Gajanan Kirtikar is fighting the Congress’s Sanjay Nirupam, the turnout stood at 54.71%.
Many voters said they found their names missing from the electoral rolls.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 30 Apr 2019 10:02

ramana wrote:No one is going overboard on Patil or Chintamani or Savyasachi prognosis.
BJP confidence is from their karyakartas hard work and contact with voting public.

Ramana Ji, Even Commies are confident of doing good in 2019. No political party ever puts up lack of confidence in sweeping the elections. Most of the Twitter warriors and arm chair journalists are reflecting their own biases onto how public is voting.

In the end, If NM doesn't get a majority on his own, It will be construed as weakness on his part among the hyenas circling the PM gaddi.

RajD · Post by **RajD** » 30 Apr 2019 10:10

Guys, on one hand people are finding their names missing from the electoral rolls but on the other hand shabby working of the EC machinery is on full display in the sense that our names, the whole family names were there in the lists of two separate polling stations. And this, despite the fact that verification was done by them in person well in time. My late father's name also still appears in the list despite telling them to remove in time.
I really wonder how many such names appearing in duplicate can swell the no. of voters and affect the voting percentage ultimately because in cities at least, I imagine that karyakartas know the voters at booth level and thus fictitious voting is not possible.
Regards.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 30 Apr 2019 10:17

I am yet to read any analysis where following lines haven't been mentioned," The area dominated by Muslims will vote for < add non-BJP Party>". It is as if this is defacto state of Muslims across India. I do believe that this is true in most of the cases but I wonder why Muslims can not do Taqiyyah and vote for BJP once and influence policies of BJP as a genuine stake holders in the victory.
By blindly going ape shit in opposing BJP, They have lost any leverage they had due to ABV influence ( Even ABV could not get Muslims to vote for his Party).
We keep talking about Shia or Sunni divide, but when it comes to BJP almost all Muslims tend to oppose them so much so that they would vote for Ajay Rai than Sh. Modi.

vimal · Post by **vimal** » 30 Apr 2019 10:22

Vikas wrote:I am yet to read any analysis where following lines haven't been mentioned," The area dominated by Muslims will vote for < add non-BJP Party>". It is as if this is defacto state of Muslims across India. I do believe that this is true in most of the cases but I wonder why Muslims can not do Taqiyyah and vote for BJP once and influence policies of BJP as a genuine stake holders in the victory.
By blindly going ape shit in opposing BJP, They have lost any leverage they had due to ABV influence ( Even ABV could not get Muslims to vote for his Party).
We keep talking about Shia or Sunni divide, but when it comes to BJP almost all Muslims tend to oppose them so much so that they would vote for Ajay Rai than Sh. Modi.

It's called "Shatrubodh".

All mono-atheists have this training implicitly from the very day they are able to walk and talk. There is no doubt who is with you vs against you.

RajD · Post by **RajD** » 30 Apr 2019 10:22

Out of curiosity. I want to ask gurus that how dependable the Google trends are.
That Banerjee guy has published in his blog that going by those trends this election is already done and dusted in favour of Modi sarkar.
Interestingly, when I asked the same thing in the comments section under his article and also whether he compared the current Google trends with those for the assembly elections that the BJP lost recently. The guy neither answered my question nor published my comment since he does it only after moderation.
Any thoughts, gurus?
Regards.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 30 Apr 2019 10:27

A different hurdle is coming up.
First it was EVM nara started by CBN.
After Mamata started voting impediment that lost steam.
Now Indira Jaising is activating her legal circuits to embroil in court chakkar.