2019 General Elections News and Discussion

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 01 May 2019 04:19

^ Awesome

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 01 May 2019 06:52

Akhilesh is saying CM took revenge on him by defeating his wife Dimple in Kanauj because he defeated CM him in Gorakhpur last year

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 01 May 2019 07:06

Another Data point

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/hom ... 075957.cms

Why those who didn’t turn out to vote may be key to Verdict

Contrary to all the chatter in the first two phases, that the decline in turnout rates (which turned out to be not true) may harm the BJP, all the evidence seems to be indicating bad news for the opposition parties.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 01 May 2019 07:16

https://twitter.com/AartiTikoo/status/1 ... 3736910853

Aarti Tikoo Singh
‏Verified account @AartiTikoo

I asked voters in a Christian locality in Jharkhand’s Lohardaga parliamentary constituency about the performance of the last five years of the Modi government. Listen to what they said.

very important to build bridges with some of them and reconvert. They like his work but church is saying don't vote.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 01 May 2019 08:30

Singha wrote:https://twitter.com/TarekFatah/status/1 ... 2768649216
why do all um worshippers in such gatherings seem to sport the dazed kind of look. aimlessly jumping up and down in the throes of their ecstasy...
they look fairly ok economically and educated.

yahoostan

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 01 May 2019 08:33

Quoting myself since no one else did.

This IMO is THE key issue in developing predictions - and in deciding where to campaign. Not too late!!

UlanBatori wrote:Sorry running out of things to write. So here is a brave attempt.
Have the Experts considered in comparing 2014 to 2019, the effect of voter replacement? i.e., voters dying/dropping out due to old age and new ones coming in? Some idea of the mentality of new voters might give a much better reliability to the predictions, and make any percentage increase in voting look that much more significant.
My sense is that voters at the old extreme (65+) may
(a) be diehard Congis from Gandhi/Nehru days (and IG days)
(b) be diehard commies
(c) be diehard Sardar Patel/ Vinoba Bhave fans

whereas newer ones (18-25) MAY be
(a) Internet junkies
(b) identify with RaGa because they resonate with his intracranial cavity.
(c) SRK fans
(d) "secular"
(e) NaMo fans?

Indian life expectancy in 2019 is about 69 years. So 5 years is a long time: Remove the first 18 years, we are left with 51. So 5 years is 10% of average life expectancy. Too late at night for the madarssa math to kick in Normal and Abnormal Distributions but someone might try these calculations? Given demographic trends, the numbers at the 18-end are significantly higher than those at the 69-end, so the rise in % compared to 2014, seen so far, may be too small, and hence reflect greater voter apathy!!
We might think that NaMo Surgical Strike and Balakot impress the youngest-gen voters, but many might never have heard of either event. Car -gel what? But they may be comfortable with PayTM.

In Malloostan I would HOPE that young-extreme gen is less commie/congi than old-extreme though going by the relatives I know, they are (never mind).
Some discussion on the sentiments of the marginal voter-replacements might be much more revealing in prediction terms than pics of the smiling Amit Shah.

What issues / concerns appeal to the newest voters?

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 01 May 2019 08:35

Hmm....the grace and dignity of these speakers is notable. The younger female had no problem acknowledging their Adivasi roots. Well, if they are not against us they are with us, as they say.

https://twitter.com/AartiTikoo/status/1 ... 3736910853

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 01 May 2019 09:05

Karthik S wrote:Anyone having idea on Mukul Roy? Read somewhere he was instrumental in the ascent of TMC, must be Tywin Lannister in his approach, now in BJP, surprisingly, nothing has been spoken about him.

Mukul Roy is giving TMC sleepless nights. He has been instrumental in causing high profile defections from TMC, including the MP Soumitra Khan. Above all, he used to be the moneybag for TMC, and hence he gives BJP all the inside info about TMC. However, there is a love-hate relationship between him and Dilip Ghosh (BJP WB State Prez).

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 01 May 2019 09:07

Singha wrote:Himanta was giving speeches to crowds as a middle schooler during assam agitation

In my PU college he was gen secy. During election campaign the candidates used to come to classrooms to intro themselves . As a traditions, we juniors had the right to ask them to speak extempore on any nonsense topic and have a good laugh at the seniors ( they were in BA or MA) by then. He was pretty amazing orator and thinking on the feet type.

Fate may have marked him out for bigger things

He also has the nitin gadkari thing of being a efficient administrator ( was health minister in a old stint) apart from amit shahish chanakya niti

GD-Saar,
Himanta-ji was very much instrumental in bringing Tripura under BJP's fold. Sunil-ji (Deodhar) was doing the brainstorming, and a good number of storm-troopers were sent by Himanta-ji from lower Assam.

tandav · Post by **tandav** » 01 May 2019 10:28

sanjaykumar wrote:Hmm....the grace and dignity of these speakers is notable. The younger female had no problem acknowledging their Adivasi roots. Well, if they are not against us they are with us, as they say.

https://twitter.com/AartiTikoo/status/1 ... 3736910853

My own personal experience with a Christian convert in my extended family and by going through many interviews which have shown that inspite of very good work done by this NDA, most Muslims and Christians (20% of India's population) will not vote for BJP, their minds have been poisoned by their respective faith leaders / MSM / Liberals. It is also well known that UPA will create/fund government schemes (NYAY) that will pander to such vote banks at the expense of others. I am sensing an undercurrent of opposition to NDA in many lower economic groups (cab driver in Gujarat with family land stating why Ahmedabad Sabarmati should have water and why that water is not given to his village)

NDA is at its heart a more wealth creation oriented entity where are UPA is a wealth redistribution oriented entity. At the hustings UPA will announce wealth redistribution schemes targeted to its caste and religious vote banks (~20% of the population) which will be paid for by the rest of the population. In the first past the post type elections all UPA needs is to get ~10% of the population's votes which I think is acheivable.

vimal · Post by **vimal** » 01 May 2019 10:52

sanjaykumar wrote:Hmm....the grace and dignity of these speakers is notable. The younger female had no problem acknowledging their Adivasi roots. Well, if they are not against us they are with us, as they say.

https://twitter.com/AartiTikoo/status/1 ... 3736910853

They will say whatever in front of camera but vote for the lord's party as ordained by the church. As one famous paki singer said, "I hate kafir but love kafir's money". Unlike pagans, Shatrubodh is instilled from a very young age in the faithfuls and they never forget that lesson. You might do the vikas and saath but they will vote for haath only. If BRF members fall for this taqiyaa so easily, you can imagine the thought process of average joe Angrezi schooled kid. This is one reason I've been asking for an Indology thread on this forum so that we have a central place to share historical context.

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 01 May 2019 11:01

+1. Still people fall for it and that too in BRF.

nandakumar · Post by **nandakumar** » 01 May 2019 11:33

This Rahul Gandhi's citizenship issue is going nowhere. UK Company House registry does not have biometric authentication of company directors. In the event all that the inquiry will show is that there exited a company and it had as director and secretary by the name of Raul Vinci. How does one say that he is the same as the current Congress president?

vimal · Post by **vimal** » 01 May 2019 11:35

That whole case is an election gimmick. If BJP was serious then they would’ve investigated this 3 years ago when SuSwamy filed the case.

banrjeer · Post by **banrjeer** » 01 May 2019 11:46

Karthik S wrote:+1. Still people fall for it and that too in BRF.

It’s Indic societies knee jerk rejection for the past 1000 years that has landed us with such a large number of converts who have rejected their roots

There’s a way out a larger meta narrative that does not harp on simplistic reconversion but cultural enrichment especially of those who stay true to their roots setting an example.

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 01 May 2019 11:56

vimal wrote:That whole case is an election gimmick. If BJP was serious then they would’ve investigated this 3 years ago when SuSwamy filed the case.

nandakumar wrote:This Rahul Gandhi's citizenship issue is going nowhere. UK Company House registry does not have biometric authentication of company directors. In the event all that the inquiry will show is that there exited a company and it had as director and secretary by the name of Raul Vinci. How does one say that he is the same as the current Congress president?

May be its a chess game, anyone recall deep state announcing their intended move?

Dileep · Post by **Dileep** » 01 May 2019 11:57

The importance of Twitter is overhyped, since media people (around whom the universe spins) use that. None of the people in my real life circle use Twitter. Everything is in WhatsApp onlee.

Case study: More than a million people went out on the street for Sabarimala. How many individual handles tweeted? Less than a hundred!! And many of them non locals.

banrjeer · Post by **banrjeer** » 01 May 2019 11:58

Pride and upward mobility is a long haul hopefully we dont lose too many to the zombies meanwhile

banrjeer · Post by **banrjeer** » 01 May 2019 12:05

For a lot of adivasis it’s the grandness and the spectacle that they are
Part of ..the larger narrative which becomes a draw there’s also the bribing money and some notion of upward mobility.

We need an RSS 2.0 that is able to
Counter It with something superior

Narad · Post by **Narad** » 01 May 2019 14:10

देखिए की पुजारी जी मोदी जी के लिए क्या कह रहे हैं #IsliyeModi

https://twitter.com/anjanaomkashyap/sta ... 9116047360

Lisa · Post by **Lisa** » 01 May 2019 15:12

nandakumar wrote:This Rahul Gandhi's citizenship issue is going nowhere. UK Company House registry does not have biometric authentication of company directors. In the event all that the inquiry will show is that there exited a company and it had as director and secretary by the name of Raul Vinci. How does one say that he is the same as the current Congress president?

Nandakumarji,

Rahul Gandhi went one step further, he gave his address as Frognal Way in Hampstead, in a house owned by Amitabh Bachchan's brother where he then registered it further to acquire voting rights in the UK election process!

The issue is rather less that of whether or not he has a passport but more in that how does he prove that he does not, get it?

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 01 May 2019 16:21

banrjeer wrote:For a lot of adivasis it’s the grandness and the spectacle that they are
Part of ..the larger narrative which becomes a draw there’s also the bribing money and some notion of upward mobility.

We need an RSS 2.0 that is able to
Counter It with something superior

https://www.dailyo.in/voices/tribal-vot ... 24788.html
When the RSS met the tribal
The organisation is increasing its presence among tribal groups by making their culture more 'Hindu' and increasing its own development works

From Gujarat to the Northeast — most recent elections have indicated a trend of tribal votes shifting towards the BJP in a very impressive way. The shift has proved decisive for the BJP’s electoral victories.

Media reports, researchers and political observers are of the view that this shift is due to the relentless work the RSS has been doing in tribal areas of the country. Even analysts, who are never ready to give any credit to the RSS for the BJP’s electoral gains, are beginning to recognise the RSS’ contribution in this area.

The RSS entered these zones silently. It formed NGOs to work among the tribals, to drive them towards the Sangh, and to empower them as 'respectable citizens'.

On the one hand, the Sangh attracted the tribals through “seva”; on the other hand, it tried to cultivate a 'Hindu identity' among the tribal population.

The RSS has set up free schools with hostel facilities in remote areas where state facilities have not yet reached. Similarly, they came up with many aarogyashalas (hospitals of ayurveda, homeopathy and modern medicine) there. In an attempt to support the indigenous knowledge of the tribal communities, the RSS institutes started imparting national-level training on archery, wrestling and other traditional tribal sports.

RSS training completely transforms these tribal children - later, they become role models for their communities, a Sangh pracharak working among the tribals in Sonabhadra area of Uttar Pradesh said. “These boys also learn bhajan kirtan and moral education from our schools. After passing from our schools, they go to cities and we support their higher education too. We maintain our constant relationship with them,” he said.

No wonder PAPPU/NYT/WaPo/rNDTV hate RSS

khatvaanga · Post by **khatvaanga** » 01 May 2019 16:46

ramana wrote: Thee bestest lawyer in India is Jaitley and he has been busy holding the fort while MA campaign. He will get active after govt is sworn in. Don't worry.

hope he gets anything but FM this time around. Now that GST has passed..

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 01 May 2019 17:03

khatvaanga wrote:
ramana wrote: Thee bestest lawyer in India is Jaitley and he has been busy holding the fort while MA campaign. He will get active after govt is sworn in. Don't worry.
hope he gets anything but FM this time around. Now that GST has passed..

Why this dislike for Arun Jaitley.

nandakumar · Post by **nandakumar** » 01 May 2019 17:06

Lisa wrote:
nandakumar wrote:This Rahul Gandhi's citizenship issue is going nowhere. UK Company House registry does not have biometric authentication of company directors. In the event all that the inquiry will show is that there exited a company and it had as director and secretary by the name of Raul Vinci. How does one say that he is the same as the current Congress president?
Nandakumarji,

Rahul Gandhi went one step further, he gave his address as Frognal Way in Hampstead, in a house owned by Amitabh Bachchan's brother where he then registered it further to acquire voting rights in the UK election process!

The issue is rather less that of whether or not he has a passport but more in that how does he prove that he does not, get it?

If the idea is to exploit the issue politically, which I doubt very much because it is coming up a bit late in the day, I have nothing to say. But if the idea is to prove it in a court of law in India to disqualify him from holding any office, the challenge of proving that Raul Vinci/Rahul Gandhi who was for a while resident in a house in Hampstead, England owned by Ajitabh Bachchan is the same individual who is currently contesting elections from Amethi/Wayanad on behalf of the Congress party and who also happens to be the party president , is immense.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 01 May 2019 17:30

If the letter from the Indian Ministry is genuine, then how did Raul respond? Or does he deem Himself above such things?

nandakumar · Post by **nandakumar** » 01 May 2019 17:41

UlanBatori wrote:If the letter from the Indian Ministry is genuine, then how did Raul respond? Or does he deem Himself above such things?

It is only two days old. He wil respond in due course. He will simply reiterate that he is an Indian Citizen. Mind you he will say nothing about the Company House documents cited by Subramaniam Swamy.

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 01 May 2019 17:47

^^He has 2 weeks to respond.

People are getting too ahead of the game..."how to prove this or that". Right now the issue is that a reasonable doubt has been created by the documents, so the MHA babu has demanded a written clarification from Pappu upfront. He has been forced to declare his status under penalty of perjury. No more Sibbals and Singhvis giving pressers about Pappu being a bharat mata ke laal.

mmasand · Post by **mmasand** » 01 May 2019 17:47

Lisa wrote:
nandakumar wrote:This Rahul Gandhi's citizenship issue is going nowhere. UK Company House registry does not have biometric authentication of company directors. In the event all that the inquiry will show is that there exited a company and it had as director and secretary by the name of Raul Vinci. How does one say that he is the same as the current Congress president?
Nandakumarji,

Rahul Gandhi went one step further, he gave his address as Frognal Way in Hampstead, in a house owned by Amitabh Bachchan's brother where he then registered it further to acquire voting rights in the UK election process!

The issue is rather less that of whether or not he has a passport but more in that how does he prove that he does not, get it?

Just FYI Lisa, one does not need to be a Brit to vote in the GE. All commonwealth citizens resident in the country can vote.

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 01 May 2019 17:55

^^That is correct. However as i understand you also have to have obtained "right to remain" (which seems similar to US permanent residence) in order to be eligible.....e.g. a desi software engineer who has entered UK on a work visa and has been there for 3 months, cannot vote. Correct me if I am wrong.

Do you think Pappu obtained right to remain just by studying for a few years there, or did he have to do more?

Vips · Post by **Vips** » 01 May 2019 18:05

There is now an overdrive by anti BJP forces on Youtube of various shows anchored by cabal of "journalists and media personalities" who have given projections quoting various surveys that BJP is losing badly after the first 4 phases. Most of the sources quoted and personalities being called for giving comments are all coming from Wire, Scroll, Caravan, RunD TV, Dupatta etc.
BJP Media cell now needs to do a riposte as power of such media cannot be ignored and all BJP supporters have to double up their efforts and guard against any complacency.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 01 May 2019 18:10

tandav wrote:
sanjaykumar wrote:Hmm....the grace and dignity of these speakers is notable. The younger female had no problem acknowledging their Adivasi roots. Well, if they are not against us they are with us, as they say.

https://twitter.com/AartiTikoo/status/1 ... 3736910853
My own personal experience with a Christian convert in my extended family and by going through many interviews which have shown that inspite of very good work done by this NDA, most Muslims and Christians (20% of India's population) will not vote for BJP, their minds have been poisoned by their respective faith leaders / MSM / Liberals. It is also well known that UPA will create/fund government schemes (NYAY) that will pander to such vote banks at the expense of others. I am sensing an undercurrent of opposition to NDA in many lower economic groups (cab driver in Gujarat with family land stating why Ahmedabad Sabarmati should have water and why that water is not given to his village)

NDA is at its heart a more wealth creation oriented entity where are UPA is a wealth redistribution oriented entity. At the hustings UPA will announce wealth redistribution schemes targeted to its caste and religious vote banks (~20% of the population) which will be paid for by the rest of the population. In the first past the post type elections all UPA needs is to get ~10% of the population's votes which I think is acheivable.

Modi's work may be very good and has also benefitted them personally but all see Modi and his parliamentary strength as a huge threat as emphasized by the padres. FCRA has knocked the bottom out of their conversion dhandha and cut off the padre's knees. hence the padre's utter panic at Modi's re election.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 01 May 2019 18:11

https://mobile.twitter.com/iMac_too/sta ... 9839970304
https://mobile.twitter.com/iMac_too/sta ... 7936594944

Dumbo papini tells her UP plans

Lisa · Post by **Lisa** » 01 May 2019 18:13

KL Dubey wrote:^^That is correct. However as i understand you also have to have obtained "right to remain" (which seems similar to US permanent residence) in order to be eligible.....e.g. a desi software engineer who has entered UK on a work visa and has been there for 3 months, cannot vote. Correct me if I am wrong.

Do you think Pappu obtained right to remain just by studying for a few years there, or did he have to do more?

KL Dubey,

I wrote this recently,

"Nationality
You qualify to register to vote if you are:

a UK citizen
a qualifying Commonwealth citizen resident in the UK
an EU citizen resident in the UK
A qualifying Commonwealth citizen is someone who has leave to enter or remain in the UK, or does not require such leave."

https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/ ... er-to-vote

ie, All Indian citizens with such attributes who are resident/or present on the day HAVE to register. (IMHO)"

mmasand · Post by **mmasand** » 01 May 2019 18:15

KL Dubey wrote:^^That is correct. However as i understand you also have to have obtained "right to remain" (which seems similar to US permanent residence) in order to be eligible.....e.g. a desi software engineer who has entered UK on a work visa and has been there for 3 months, cannot vote. Correct me if I am wrong.

Do you think Pappu obtained right to remain just by studying for a few years there, or did he have to do more?

The criteria is a minimum stay of 6 months prior to registering, students (Tier 4) can vote, and those on work permits (Tier 2) too (miniscule number).

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 01 May 2019 18:19

Chowkidar Girish @girishs2
Follow Follow @girishs2
More
Sattabazar giving 35 seats to BJP SS
1 to Prakash Ambedkar Solapur
1 to others-phalgar
10 to Cong - NCP
Gadkari and Sule winning
Close fight between Arvind Sawant and Milind Deora
@IamIconoclast
7:03 AM - 1 May 2019

Anyone from MH can corroborate? That's 7 seats loss I believe from 2014.

Ardeshir · Post by **Ardeshir** » 01 May 2019 18:33

Dileep wrote:The importance of Twitter is overhyped, since media people (around whom the universe spins) use that. None of the people in my real life circle use Twitter. Everything is in WhatsApp onlee.

Case study: More than a million people went out on the street for Sabarimala. How many individual handles tweeted? Less than a hundred!! And many of them non locals.

Saar, a different take on this. I agree that Social Media, and even English television media has but a tiny footprint amongst the masses.
However, Twitter/Insta/Snapchat are the homes of the Dilli Billis, SoBo Socialites aside from the lutyens journos and lifafa hacks. Within those crowds Twitter is the breathing apparatus to keep their informational circles alive. In 2014, an ex-GHQ of mine (who was Parsi) had a genuine fear that Modiji will wipe her out because her last name could be mistaken for Bohri. No amount of showing evidence to the contrary could cure that fear psychosis, and most of this was based on Twitter + NDTV.
What was funny was that during a Navjote ceremony, the priests had come from Navsari and Udvada, and they were staunch Modi supporters. Aside from all the road/infra development, apparently Modijee had provided funds for Parsi temples too, unlike previous governments but these were quickly dismissed as ill-informed opinions.
Amongst the educated, deracinated elite, Twitter punches above its weight category.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 01 May 2019 18:34

https://mobile.twitter.com/chintan20/st ... 9039332353

Rajdeep shouted down by CON supporters for asking a question on Amethi

banrjeer · Post by **banrjeer** » 01 May 2019 18:54

RSS need s to give primacy to tribal culture and only give light exposure to mainstream Hinduism if there’s vacuum or inclination. RSS needs to own atheism as well.

Adivasis are potentially more Hindu than us. This effectively was the pattern when Hinduism was dynamic and not ossified.

Indra and shiva all gods are tribal

Take Jagannath. The priests had abject humility/ or hijacked and appropriated and mainstreamed a tribal cult ...or shades of all.

Twitter is a set of cults and many are being cast out of its temples. Sabbathmala and Twitter May be orthogonal but not guaranteed to be so forever. You got hedge on all fronts