2019 General Elections News and Discussion

darshan · Post by **darshan** » 02 May 2019 17:10

Mort Walker wrote:Some of the anti-Modi or anti-BJP tweets going around that need further explanation.

One partial explanation would be election year funding for UPA. Dalals and PSU unions would be happy? Election funds?

suryag · Post by **suryag** » 02 May 2019 17:17

As someone answered the Defence Pension is not accounted for in DEfence budget and is now under separate head

Congi pasand Ajai Shukla himself mentions this(quoting it because Congis will not believe anything not even gazette notifications)

https://www.business-standard.com/artic ... 392_1.html

However, Finance Minister Piyush Goyal’s Budget speech, and a government statement released through the Press Information Bureau, treated the pension and MoD allocations as outside the defence Budget. By that count, the defence budget amounts to Rs 3.02 trillion.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 02 May 2019 17:42

darshan wrote:
Mort Walker wrote:Some of the anti-Modi or anti-BJP tweets going around that need further explanation.

One partial explanation would be election year funding for UPA. Dalals and PSU unions would be happy? Election funds?

Hello einsteinullahs:

See Forbes (Propah Gora, headed by the jackass who attacked India for Namo-Demo and got handed his undies by someone commenting under his article):

Indian economy, measured in USD, is 1.5 times in 2019 what it was in 2014. So 1.38% would have been constant spending (in dollars while rupee was declining!) per Ulan Bator's famed Institute 4 Ungli Arithmetic. Instead GOI is spending 1.49%
IOW, defense spending has risen by 7.9 percent as a percentage of GDP, even as GDP has risen by 50%!!!!!!!!

PLUS, 100% of the spending is going to benefit the warfighter, not the Seychelles bank account of 3-star-King RaGa&Mother Pvt. Ltd

And ppl from the land of Aryabhatta (not 2 b confused with Dar-ka Butt-a or Stinker Dupatta) can't figure this out? Something is SERIOUSLY wrong with the rice being eaten in sdre yindoostan. R u sure it is not GM like the British milk that RaGa swills?

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 02 May 2019 18:04

VDPAssociates
@VDPAssociates
·

Lok Sabha results will stun political pundits across India on May 23rd.Some states will give results no one imagined #LokSabhaElections2019

VDPAssociates
@VDPAssociates
·
Apr 30
With it almost clear which way 2019 election is going can the next government be expected to focus on education sector which is almost in shambles? #LokSabhaElections2019

Remember he called out Wire magazine BS that BJP will lose 40 seats as stupid spreadsheet analysis

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 02 May 2019 18:12

UBCN is also making similar claim. In fact MANY states, not just SOME states.

Lok Sabha results will stun political pundits across India on May 23rd. MANY states will give results no one imagined #LokSabhaElections2019

Mark our words!

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 02 May 2019 18:50

UlanBatori wrote:UBCN is also making similar claim. In fact MANY states, not just SOME states.

Lok Sabha results will stun political pundits across India on May 23rd. MANY states will give results no one imagined #LokSabhaElections2019

Mark our words!

Exit poll?

sudeepj · Post by **sudeepj** » 02 May 2019 19:14

darshan wrote:
Mort Walker wrote:Some of the anti-Modi or anti-BJP tweets going around that need further explanation.

One partial explanation would be election year funding for UPA. Dalals and PSU unions would be happy? Election funds?

After OROP, pensions are being brought out in a different head, not the defense budget, IIRC. That explains some of the apparent decline as a percentage.

darshan · Post by **darshan** » 02 May 2019 19:25

UlanBatori wrote:
darshan wrote: One partial explanation would be election year funding for UPA. Dalals and PSU unions would be happy? Election funds?
Hello einsteinullahs:

PLUS, 100% of the spending is going to benefit the warfighter, not the Seychelles bank account of 3-star-King RaGa&Mother Pvt. Ltd

The keyword being partial. We have an overlap on that part. Many other explanations were already covered in different threads before when folks were battling out defense spending. My comment was mainly based on the particular year's coincidence with the election year.

And focus needs to be changed to cyclone fani.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 02 May 2019 19:35

BeeJayPee on Teetar I hope gives back better than it gets from these RaGa twits. That chart is another RaGa booboo that they should not be allowed to let down: Ask where RaGa passed arithmetic.

darshan · Post by **darshan** » 02 May 2019 20:04

Centre orders release of Rs 1,086 crore to 4 states as advance assistance for cyclone 'Fani'.

https://m.republicworld.com/india-news/ ... clone-fani

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 02 May 2019 20:38

चौकीदार छोटे चौधरी
‏

@Tweeter_wapsi

BJP mounting strong campaign in Azamgarh..
Today Ram Vilas Paswan campaigning for Nirhua.. Anupriya Patel also active in constituency... All top BJP leaders spending nights..

Akal-less didn't expect this..

Can BJP mount same campaign in Rae Bareli too? WHy not get rid of Chinese Gandhis from Parliament totally and sanitize it?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 02 May 2019 20:59

So who are the candidates in Azamgarh?

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 02 May 2019 21:02

ramana wrote:So who are the candidates in Azamgarh?

Akal-less

Their whole family tree is running in 22 constituencies in teetar

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 02 May 2019 21:04

ramana wrote:So who are the candidates in Azamgarh?

actor dinesh yadav (Nirahua) and akhilesh yadav.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 02 May 2019 21:34

Chintamani
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#ChintamaniSpeaks #Elections2019 @Election_in 14 UP constituencies in #Phase5 - Dhaurahra, Sitapur, Lucknow, Mohanlalganj, Barabanki, Kaiserganj, Bahraich, Gonda, Faizabad, Amethi, Raibareli, Kaushambi, Fatehpur, Banda.
BJP ahead in all of them. Yes, all of them.

Shaktimaan · Post by **Shaktimaan** » 02 May 2019 21:40

I watched Pappu ji's interview on NDTV today. It was full of lies about Rafale etc, but Pappu himself has come a long way from that notorious interview with Arnab. He seemed confident and there was no fumbling.

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 02 May 2019 21:49

hanumadu wrote:
Chintamani
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@IamIconoclast
Following Following @IamIconoclast
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#ChintamaniSpeaks #Elections2019 @Election_in 14 UP constituencies in #Phase5 - Dhaurahra, Sitapur, Lucknow, Mohanlalganj, Barabanki, Kaiserganj, Bahraich, Gonda, Faizabad, Amethi, Raibareli, Kaushambi, Fatehpur, Banda.
BJP ahead in all of them. Yes, all of them.

In the 51 seats of Phase 5, I would expect NDA to have a rich haul of minimum 40 and quite possibly 45+ seats.

A few seats may go to TMC in WB and maybe 1-2 to UPA in JH.

In BH, MP, and RJ I expect nearly clean sweep. Maybe 1-2 lost here and there.

Same in UP. Will be nearly clean sweep, and possibly 100% clean sweep.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 02 May 2019 21:58

ishaan prakash
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India TV seems to be planning a grand extravaganza for their PM Modi interview, JN stadium booked. This format could be a first for a TV interview?

williams · Post by **williams** » 02 May 2019 22:00

Shaktimaan wrote:I watched Pappu ji's interview on NDTV today. It was full of lies about Rafale etc, but Pappu himself has come a long way from that notorious interview with Arnab. He seemed confident and there was no fumbling.

Is that a live interview? If it is not live. Then editing will do the trick.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 02 May 2019 22:02

spoke too early …

https://zeenews.india.com/lok-sabha-gen ... 00506.html

BJP gets mission mode in Amethi and Raebareli

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 02 May 2019 22:11

I’m not sure which districts in WB and BH may be impacted by Cyclone Fani. Based on landfall projections it should pass WB by Sunday, but it may impact voter turnout if some constituencies are impacted.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 02 May 2019 22:27

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The dynasty extracted a huge price from India. It's now extracting a huge price from the Congress party. In well nurtured constituencies like Guna, they want to vote for the party, but won't do so only because of Pappu and Pappi.

Picklu · Post by **Picklu** » 02 May 2019 22:35

An example of Con Bot army

https://twitter.com/callmeashu2017/stat ... 3892726786

I understand that twitter is less influencial than whatsapp but whatsapp remains and will remain more close and private compared to twitter.

Can BJP really afford to cede a space and allow a new axis of attack to develop?

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 02 May 2019 22:51

vijayk wrote:spoke too early …

https://zeenews.india.com/lok-sabha-gen ... 00506.html

BJP gets mission mode in Amethi and Raebareli

I can certainly see Amethi turning saffron considering the charisma and hard work of the BJP candidate. Rae Bareli seems more of a numbers game + hard campaigning by BJP "stars". Will of course be great if Rae Bareli turns too. It helps that the incumbents in both seats have been total duds in their multiple terms as MPs.

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 02 May 2019 23:33

vijayk wrote:
VDPAssociates
@VDPAssociates
·

Lok Sabha results will stun political pundits across India on May 23rd.Some states will give results no one imagined #LokSabhaElections2019

VDPAssociates
@VDPAssociates
·
Apr 30
With it almost clear which way 2019 election is going can the next government be expected to focus on education sector which is almost in shambles? #LokSabhaElections2019

Excellent way to cover all your bases without saying anything specific.

If BJP comes back with higher seat count than 2014 - Stunning, no one imagined, but I predicted.
If BJP loses a whole bunch of seats and Thugbandhan wins - Political pundits stunned! No one imagined, but I predicted it.
If BJP loses seats but NDA manages to scrape thourgh - Still stunning! Unpredicatble, but this is what I meant in my tweet.

PP at least says exactly what he means on Twitter, regardless of whether you choose to believe him or not.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 02 May 2019 23:34

There should be a law against such reporting, when one is drinking coffee reading it at the keyboard.

It seems that BJP has prepared a foolproof plan to defeat Congress

And right above that they show the fool looking like himself.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 02 May 2019 23:39

Cyclone Fani heading for Puri

Cyclone Fani will likely cause "total destruction" of thatched roof houses, as well as "extensive uprooting of communication and power poles," according to the IMD. India's air force, army, navy and coast guard are currently on high alert, and the country has opened 800 shelters for evacuees, the AP reported. The country also has more than 100,000 emergency food packets ready to be airdropped, according to the AP.

BRF planning to get ahead of the curve and start a Fani dhaga with emergency info pls? Massive destruction is a certainty. Hopefully loss of life will be minimal due to good prediction and evacuation. Like a million people evacuated to shelters! "Phenomenal Sea Conditions" suggests massive tidal wave, and probably immense flooding as Ganga and Brahmaputra / Padma rivers back up in Bengal.

darshan · Post by **darshan** » 02 May 2019 23:57

Picklu wrote: I understand that twitter is less influencial than whatsapp but whatsapp remains and will remain more close and private compared to twitter.

Can BJP really afford to cede a space and allow a new axis of attack to develop?

I wonder how much overlap is there. WhatsApp is preferred medium to share but how much of direct or indirect content from other platforms being referenced on WhatsApp?

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 03 May 2019 00:15

Picklu wrote:An example of Con Bot army
https://twitter.com/callmeashu2017/stat ... 3892726786
I understand that twitter is less influencial than whatsapp but whatsapp remains and will remain more close and private compared to twitter.
Can BJP really afford to cede a space and allow a new axis of attack to develop?

What's so great about that tweet ? It's basically a tweet about tweeting. Twitter is already used widely for fratting. What's that ? Well here's a tweet about it

“Fratting” is when paid troll groups organize off Twitter to time mass harassment. They then swarm the target, hoping to provoke any pushback. Then, they and a botnet send 1000s of reports of “abuse” - by the target. Twitter then suspends the account.

Rishi Bagree and now TrueIndology are victims of this.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 03 May 2019 00:19

nachiket wrote:
vijayk wrote:
Excellent way to cover all your bases without saying anything specific.

If BJP comes back with higher seat count than 2014 - Stunning, no one imagined, but I predicted.
If BJP loses a whole bunch of seats and Thugbandhan wins - Political pundits stunned! No one imagined, but I predicted it.
If BJP loses seats but NDA manages to scrape thourgh - Still stunning! Unpredicatble, but this is what I meant in my tweet.

PP at least says exactly what he means on Twitter, regardless of whether you choose to believe him or not.

He said WB will be a stunner. He predicted TMC in his opinion pole
He trashed Wire when they tried to say BJP will lose 40-45 in UP based on caste count/2014 vote statistics/vote cutter analysis on spreadsheet.

In one tweet he said public will stun by giving decisive verdict? Is 20-30 party Non-alliance based on caste arithmetic a decisive verdict?

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 03 May 2019 00:26

vijayk wrote: He said WB will be a stunner. He predicted TMC in his opinion pole
He trashed Wire when they tried to say BJP will lose 40-45 in UP based on caste count/2014 vote statistics/vote cutter analysis on spreadsheet.

In one tweet he said public will stun by giving decisive verdict? Is 20-30 party Non-alliance based on caste arithmetic a decisive verdict?

All I'm saying is there is no reason to be cryptic. People cannot post exit poll data or exact seat predictions. But there is nothing stopping him from saying that BJP will get a decisive verdict in their favor or they will sweep WB if he wants to. If that is what he means, he should say it without the wink-wink nudge-nudge that can be interpreted in any way.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 03 May 2019 00:31

^ I believe in ramanaji … He has given a decisive verdict in posts here

abhik · Post by **abhik** » 03 May 2019 00:34

ramana wrote:
Mort Walker wrote:Some of the anti-Modi or anti-BJP tweets going around that need further explanation.

We can rebut this quite effectively. For starters its NaMo govt that persuaded IA to order Arjun MK1A that the graphic uses scissors on the gun barrel.,

Of course actual capital expenditure trend over years will give the true picture, but the figures aren't any thing to write home about. Correct me if I'm wrong but the Arjun Mk1A has not actually been ordered, neither has Tejas Mk1. Also indigenous content has probably come down (I'm looking for the actual numbers, don't know if these are released) due to signing of massive importgiri deals like Rafale and S400 without equivalent desi ones.
This has come up before, but some BRFites get defensive. After balakot there is a realization that the budget has to be increased, lol now even Jetley is admitting this (after 5 years have gone by).

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 03 May 2019 00:57

nachiket wrote:All I'm saying is there is no reason to be cryptic. People cannot post exit poll data or exact seat predictions. But there is nothing stopping him from saying that BJP will get a decisive verdict in their favor or they will sweep WB if he wants to. If that is what he means, he should say it without the wink-wink nudge-nudge that can be interpreted in any way.

While your argument makes sense in isolation, I think we are being a little blinded by our own confirmation biases here. I took a quick look at the Indian Express front page yesterday. The news articles all describe 'Modi not censured for MCC violation; EC goes against arguments made by its own officials' . The details describe an EC exec committee meeting discussing successive poll code violation petitions against the PM, which were debated after after various positions were argued, decisions were made. That standard committee discussion is massaged as 'going against its own officials'.

On paper, such decisions should be statutorily made on the basis of clearly laid down and comprehensive guidelines of dos and don'ts. But the reality is that this is not the case. Even further than EC, the SC's decisions are even more arbitary . Given such context, one can't blame these folks for being excessively cryptic - it is symptomatic of the fact that there is not enough clarity as to what can and cannot be done, and that levers can be pulled arbitrarily, especially considering the person is on the Twitter platform, a location that's very frequently affected by fratting.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 03 May 2019 01:11

BB has still the same risk that he had in the last assembly election. He is using Mapi, that has one fatal flaw - It assumes a solid base vote for each party (at booth level as he claims) and then based on some targeted opinion/exit poll at supposedly bell weather booths (bell weather from his model perspective), predict swing, adjust the base and predict who will win. In Chhattisgarh assembly election, what was base was wrong (as the base itself had shifted). No amount of swing would have accounted it (same was the reason of Rajasthan being wrong, MP from psephology wasn't wrong.).
This is good use of Machine learning/predictive analysis, but has his limitations. The model will only work, if the political situation is more or less static (as in base is intact) and swings are then measure. If I remember right, he started with 17% undecided voters in his Mapi (meaning 83% were accounted in respective party's base, I was a day late in accessing, undecided could have been bigger). I am not sure he has some triggers to account for base shift ( he got Bihar right, he saw perhaps large swing towards Lalu/Nitish than expected and in Bihar I suspect that time opposition base was bigger than BJP's).
That could be a flaw in his analysis in this election. Not sure how Savyasachi or Chintamani are doing their analysis (real exit interview?).
BB if doing a survey (I don't know how hw will confirm all 543 constituency) can at a very gross level confirm the base (The macro at top is not that).

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 03 May 2019 01:13

When @VDPAssociates called TheWire idiotic report on UP as Excel sheet analysis, I know how the wind is blowing in UP.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 03 May 2019 01:15

https://twitter.com/TimesNow/status/1123967925877080064

TIMES NOW
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TIMES NOW EXCLUSIVE: Sensational claims by sleuths. Raids reveal top beneficiaries 'Surjewala and Digvijaya'.

Listen in to @RShivshankar and @navikakumar on #PollCashTrailConfession

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 03 May 2019 01:38

fanne wrote:BB has still the same risk that he had in the last assembly election. He is using Mapi, that has one fatal flaw - It assumes a solid base vote for each party (at booth level as he claims) and then based on some targeted opinion/exit poll at supposedly bell weather booths (bell weather from his model perspective), predict swing, adjust the base and predict who will win. In Chhattisgarh assembly election, what was base was wrong (as the base itself had shifted). No amount of swing would have accounted it (same was the reason of Rajasthan being wrong, MP from psephology wasn't wrong.).
This is good use of Machine learning/predictive analysis, but has his limitations. The model will only work, if the political situation is more or less static (as in base is intact) and swings are then measure. If I remember right, he started with 17% undecided voters in his Mapi (meaning 83% were accounted in respective party's base, I was a day late in accessing, undecided could have been bigger). I am not sure he has some triggers to account for base shift ( he got Bihar right, he saw perhaps large swing towards Lalu/Nitish than expected and in Bihar I suspect that time opposition base was bigger than BJP's).
That could be a flaw in his analysis in this election. Not sure how Savyasachi or Chintamani are doing their analysis (real exit interview?).
BB if doing a survey (I don't know how hw will confirm all 543 constituency) can at a very gross level confirm the base (The macro at top is not that).

General models are like that - differential/swing analysis on raw data to do predictions. With ML algos available, they can be further fine tuned. This all gives positive and ideal case results. Even large scale base shifts are okay as they can be modeled and analyzed in the same way.
Such model analysis with solid ground survey data can give better projections. However, ground reality of party poll management and party fine-tunings of schemes during elections (like TRS did in Assembly elections in 2018 and last minute welfare schemes TDP did now) can't be captured by the models unless your have similar data that parties are doing on. Only party organizations or private groups like Ex-MP Lagadapati who has secretive survey and predictions organization are equipped to do such deep analysis as it is expensive.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 03 May 2019 02:03

https://newsd.in/don-t-teach-us-politic ... -congress/
Don’t teach us politics: Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav to Congress
"They are both the same. If India is facing unemployment due to wrong policies of the Congress, the BJP has only taken those forward and made the situation even worse"

Yadav said: “The Congress party has stood together with the individual, who got a CBI inquiry ordered against Netaji (Mulayam Singh Yadav) and his family for disproportionate assets. But look at our large-heartedness, we still spared two seats for the Congress in Uttar Pradesh.”

KJo · Post by **KJo** » 03 May 2019 02:28

Shaktimaan wrote:I watched Pappu ji's interview on NDTV today. It was full of lies about Rafale etc, but Pappu himself has come a long way from that notorious interview with Arnab. He seemed confident and there was no fumbling.

Shashi Tharoor must be training him these days.

He may have improved his delivery, but he still spouts nonsense and comes across as petty and immature.