West Asia News and Discussions

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 03 May 2019 00:28

ramana wrote:
IndraD wrote:if a nustshell summary could be posted by someone please
-why Obama didn't think of Iran as adversary and lifted sanctions
-
4) Palestine is in the desert. West Asia is forming two axes: GCC+ Israel vs Turkey+Iran+Qatar.
Historically the balance in West Asia was due to Ottoman Turkey vs Persia. Arabs did not have the demographics. They don't even now.
Now both Turkey and Iran are on same side.
Think of the tectonic change over the millennia.

Good for civilized world. Like Iraq Iran war , let this fight be great century of mutual SSS-laughter.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 03 May 2019 03:32

Mukesh.Kumar wrote: Welcome back Shyamd. Your absence was noticed very much. Hoping to see you more frequently back on BRF

Thanks MK. Are you still in MCT?

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 03 May 2019 08:33

The whole thing about "Waivers being cancelled for Iranian sanctions"makes no sense to me. WHY would CHINA and India "obey" a diktat from Duplee City that is itself based on a blatant unilateral violation of a multilateral agreement by the Trump Admin?
Isn't this a straight WTO case? US liable for huge damages? And the optics are really terrible: BOTH China and India taking orders from DC on who in their own neighborhood they can talk to - based on an on-again off-again schizophrenic US Admin's whims.

Why didn't Xi and NaMo laugh this off? Why is RaGa not tearing into NaMo for this?

So I think there is another explanation. It is all BS, a gang-up to hike oil prices. The key point comes through: there is at least ONE real independent nationL Bakistan.

In the meantime, Iranians are expected to continue smuggling oil, possibly finding routes through Pakistan, Iraq and Afghanistan among other places. Rome said his group has baked in 200,000 barrels a day of straight smuggling -- ship to ship smuggling, trying to conceal locations of tankers. "There will be Iranian crude reaching the market after May 2," he said. "It will just be in significantly smaller volumes."

IOW, that road project must be well along: Chabahar to Afghanistan to China, and Chabahar to India under the radar.

Any other explanation looks really bad on the part of India. NaMo's ShahBano?

nandakumar · Post by **nandakumar** » 03 May 2019 09:38

As long as oil stays in the $ 70 range, Modi wouldn't have to face a Shah Bano moment. The current sentiment (bountiful oil output in the US market, inventory etc) should hold for a week or two. By then elections would be done and dusted. But in the long term India has to reckon with how it stands up to the US in its current face off with Iran.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 04 May 2019 00:13

Indo China move to make buyers club, remove Asian Premium etc is on possibility to get out this oil price trap .AFAIK, Chinese dignitary is visiting Delhi in about 2 weeks to discuss this and hopefully add JAPAN & SOKO to this initiative.

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 04 May 2019 00:15

Prem wrote:Indo China move to make buyers club, remove Asian Premium etc is on possibility to get out this oil price trap .AFAIK, Chinese dignitary is visiting Delhi in about 2 weeks to discuss this and hopefully add JAPAN & SOKO to this initiative.

Japan and SoKo are unfortunately US poodles who will not do anything to piss the great khan off unfortunately.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 04 May 2019 00:53

Prem knows the oil market. So heed his thoughts.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 04 May 2019 01:00

nandakumar wrote:As long as oil stays in the $ 70 range, Modi wouldn't have to face a Shah Bano moment. The current sentiment (bountiful oil output in the US market, inventory etc) should hold for a week or two. By then elections would be done and dusted. But in the long term India has to reckon with how it stands up to the US in its current face off with Iran.

But the optics are that India becomes a backs~~tabbing~~biting poodle of Great Satan (and KSA). Why is this acceptable per NaMoSarkar?
India has no "reputation" of being so unreliable.

OR.. has India concluded that US is justified in unilateral abrogation of the nuke treaty? Iran IS continuing centrifuging to make weapons-grade? And already told Eyeran that India cannot agree to what they are doing? Then why the Oiropean Nautanki?

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 04 May 2019 01:07

^^ reflects mood in Washington and there are things going on Af-Pak related. See Doval past visits to DC discussing this topic - I’ve posted on this in past

kit · Post by **kit** » 04 May 2019 02:45

Prem wrote:Indo China move to make buyers club, remove Asian Premium etc is on possibility to get out this oil price trap .AFAIK, Chinese dignitary is visiting Delhi in about 2 weeks to discuss this and hopefully add JAPAN & SOKO to this initiative.

if that works it would be a 'tectonic' change in oil markets, and no reason why it should not, the world economy is shifting to the east and maybe the OPEC should have a western premium instead of Asian

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 04 May 2019 03:06

UlanBatori wrote: OR.. has India concluded that US is justified in unilateral abrogation of the nuke treaty? Iran IS continuing centrifuging to make weapons-grade? And already told Eyeran that India cannot agree to what they are doing? Then why the Oiropean Nautanki?

That is unlikely. There is no actual evidence that Iran was not following the stipulations of the nuke-deal. This is basically internal US politics causing trouble for everyone but themselves. Trumpkin and republicans have to oppose everything that Obama did, so the nuke deal must be canceled, regardless of whether it is succeeding or not. And the policy hawks who have had a hard on for Iran since 1979 will cheer it. There is nothing more to it. Of course it helps even more that rising prices are a boon for the shale-oil producers in the US.

Meanwhile large oil importers like India and China get screwed (which is probably also counted as a win in the white house).

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 04 May 2019 03:32

I insist that the real solution is a breakthrough pact by US, Israel, India, Iran and Afghanistan to put Iranian troops on southern border of Iran with Pakistan, build out the border road from Chabahar both to Afghanistan and thence all the way towards the Bolan Pass (?) and then extend the iranian road all the way to Iran's northernmost border. This would make fuel delivery for US forces in A'stan independent of TSP.

chanakyaa · Post by **chanakyaa** » 04 May 2019 05:12

Prem wrote:Indo China move to make buyers club, remove Asian Premium etc is on possibility to get out this oil price trap .AFAIK, Chinese dignitary is visiting Delhi in about 2 weeks to discuss this and hopefully add JAPAN & SOKO to this initiative.

Conceptually this makes a lot of sense. Chinese have been trying very hard to switch decades old petro-thollar ecosystem system to petro-yuan. Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE) hasn't been as effective in replicating tholler based futures system which allows producers to manage revenue effectively; but it is a long process. I hope one day it translates to other commodities such as Gold, Copper etc. Fortunately, we have a loh-purush commanding our ship. I'm sure the opportunity will be carefully vetted so as not to fall in trap of propping up Chinese petro system.

The billion-yuan question facing China’s crude futures exchange

Mukesh.Kumar · Post by **Mukesh.Kumar** » 04 May 2019 13:56

shyamd wrote:
Mukesh.Kumar wrote: Welcome back Shyamd. Your absence was noticed very much. Hoping to see you more frequently back on BRF
Thanks MK. Are you still in MCT?

Not any more. But in the region. Hence i don't comment on the region generally.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 04 May 2019 15:05

the list of casualties of those who tried to move out of dollar into anything else like euros for oil settlement is long - libya, iran, iraq ...

i dont see our problem as being specifically one of tied to dollar as settlement - its all a matter of sticks and carrots and rupee is not yet in the running to be part of that basket , but our currency has been devalued to pump exports and is below its natural level. this makes importing myriad types of technology and services costly which is a must to climb up the value chain to $10T by 2030.

$10T and $8000 per capita is low hanging fruit if we just streamline a few basic things and extend whatever economic models are now in use for top6 metros down to top300 cities. it does not require any great innovation. this will take to where china, malaysia, thailand is now.

but the structure of the $10->30T march in 2030-2050 has got to laid with a stronger currency also. that would take our per capita to italy,spain level in 2050. this phase will also mean we break the middle income trap as i mentioned in another thread.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 04 May 2019 18:00

HT reports 2 detained in KSA for IS links based on Indian intel request

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 05 May 2019 00:18

many thanks Ramana guru, Prem Kr & other members for valuable input on Q !

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 05 May 2019 01:26

Singha wrote:the list of casualties of those who tried to move out of dollar into anything else like euros for oil settlement is long - libya, iran, iraq ...

i dont see our problem as being specifically one of tied to dollar as settlement - its all a matter of sticks and carrots and rupee is not yet in the running to be part of that basket , but our currency has been devalued to pump exports and is below its natural level. this makes importing myriad types of technology and services costly which is a must to climb up the value chain to $10T by 2030.but the structure of the $10->30T march in 2030-2050 has got to laid with a stronger currency also. that would take our per capita to italy,spain level in 2050. this phase will also mean we break the middle income trap as i mentioned in another thread.

IMHO,From 2030 Onward we will need real "military " power to move unhindered toward 2040/50 economic target. USA,Euro-Japan, Soko etc all did this under military umbrela.

ricky_v · Post by **ricky_v** » 05 May 2019 10:39

https://www.iiss.org/blogs/analysis/201 ... -programme

Saudi Arabia is interested in the development of a nuclear power programme to meet growing electricity demand and to diversify its energy sources. Riyadh has outlined plans to construct up to 16 large nuclear reactors over the course of 20 to 25 years to provide the kingdom with 17 GWe of nuclear capacity by 2040. Riyadh started soliciting proposals for the construction of two reactors in November 2017 and has been in talks with Russia, China, France, South Korea and the United States. The official tender should be launched in early 2020.

In parallel, Saudi Arabia is also interested in the development of small modular reactors, which are, as the name suggests, smaller units using modular technology. Beyond electricity production, these reactors can also be used for desalination and heat generation purposes. Both South Korea and China are developing joint projects with Saudi Arabia on small modular reactors. Following a 2015 agreement signed with Argentina’s nuclear company INVAP, Riyadh has also been constructing a low power research reactor which, according to recent media reports, is nearing completion. The 10 KWe research reactor will mainly be used for medical isotope production and engineer training.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 07 May 2019 01:01

shyamd wrote:Today the first bullet has been fired by Trump against Tehran. This will result in a dangerous escalation in the region including direct military confrontation. Later today, Trump is expected to announce a halt to the export of Iranian oil COMPLETELY (i.e. no exemptions and no oil will be exported at all!).

US deploying carrier and bomber task force in response to 'troubling' Iran actions

mmasand · Post by **mmasand** » 07 May 2019 01:20

shyamd wrote:
shyamd wrote:Today the first bullet has been fired by Trump against Tehran. This will result in a dangerous escalation in the region including direct military confrontation. Later today, Trump is expected to announce a halt to the export of Iranian oil COMPLETELY (i.e. no exemptions and no oil will be exported at all!).
US deploying carrier and bomber task force in response to 'troubling' Iran actions

Any guesses where? Duqm, 5th fleet at Bahrain, or Jebel Ali?

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 07 May 2019 04:12

Probably Bahrain and Jebel Ali. Bombers & other USAF assets in Al Udeid and Al Dhafra (Abu Dhabi, UAE).

Kuwait, Qatar & Oman are not happy with what is happening in the region. Current moves are backed by KSA & UAE.

This is the return of the military tactic to wear the enemy out whilst sanctions are in place. Risk of conflict is high.

tandav · Post by **tandav** » 07 May 2019 12:50

This Iran action by USA is imposing unacceptably high cost to India. Is this cost of getting US support to get Masood Azhar and JeM blacklisted? ... not worth it IMHO unless there are extenuating circumstances.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 07 May 2019 13:23

tandav wrote:This Iran action by USA is imposing unacceptably high cost to India. Is this cost of getting US support to get Masood Azhar and JeM blacklisted? ... not worth it IMHO unless there are extenuating circumstances.

What choice does India, show the middle finger to US and continue importing Iranian Oil, the amount of leverage US has from the Dollar as International currency, to many Indian industries dependent on its and sheer world power. Getting screwed for Iranian Oil is not worth it. Best we can work with EU, Soko, Russia etc to keep the flow going.

Its not worth being a martyr for Iran.

mmasand · Post by **mmasand** » 07 May 2019 14:17

shyamd wrote:Probably Bahrain and Jebel Ali. Bombers & other USAF assets in Al Udeid and Al Dhafra (Abu Dhabi, UAE).

Kuwait, Qatar & Oman are not happy with what is happening in the region. Current moves are backed by KSA & UAE.

This is the return of the military tactic to wear the enemy out whilst sanctions are in place. Risk of conflict is high.

Thanks! Spotted C-5's moving assets a couple of weeks ago. They've been massing up for about 6 months. Interesting to see what happens in the strait of Hormuz over the next few weeks.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 07 May 2019 14:55

So far the Iranians have not done anything foolish, they are being provoked, lets see to what extent, Trump cant attack Iran unless Iran attacks a US warship or something.

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 07 May 2019 15:56

Don't think Iran will attack US assets, even when USS Vincennes shot down Iran Air 655, Iran didn't respond militarily.

mmasand · Post by **mmasand** » 07 May 2019 17:18

1 of 2: Last night's announced deployment of the @CVN_72 and a @USAirForce bomber task force to the @CENTCOM area of responsibility, which I approved yesterday, represents a prudent repositioning of assets in response to indications of a credible threat by Iranian regime forces.

This was the statement from Pat Shanahan, Acting DefSec. Perhaps they are all out to provoke the IRG.

ArjunPandit · Post by **ArjunPandit** » 07 May 2019 18:32

Aditya_V wrote:So far the Iranians have not done anything foolish, they are being provoked, lets see to what extent, Trump cant attack Iran unless Iran attacks a US warship or something.

I think iranians are not foolish to go on an army trip on the advice of American diplomats like iraq did. They'll bide their tiem alogn with russians and chinese to survive USA/trump for another obama

That said, Israel had a truce

ArjunPandit · Post by **ArjunPandit** » 07 May 2019 18:33

Aditya_V wrote:
tandav wrote:This Iran action by USA is imposing unacceptably high cost to India. Is this cost of getting US support to get Masood Azhar and JeM blacklisted? ... not worth it IMHO unless there are extenuating circumstances.
What choice does India, show the middle finger to US and continue importing Iranian Oil, the amount of leverage US has from the Dollar as International currency, to many Indian industries dependent on its and sheer world power. Getting screwed for Iranian Oil is not worth it. Best we can work with EU, Soko, Russia etc to keep the flow going.

Its not worth being a martyr for Iran.

need to search what happened to the buyers bloc that India & china were trying to partner ?

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 08 May 2019 08:12

there is no UN resolution calling for a blockade of iran oil trade.

the US is threatening sanctions against those who import iranian oil.

tandav · Post by **tandav** » 08 May 2019 09:12

India faces a serious issue due to Sunni/Wahabbi extremism. The USA Iran action strengthens KSA/ISIS. India must intervene and broker a peace between Israel and Iran. It will be better if we can somehow convince the US to stop taking military action in our backyard.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 08 May 2019 09:13

main warmonger is john bolton.

abhik · Post by **abhik** » 08 May 2019 10:34

India is a non player in ME, let's not delude ourselves that we will be able to broker a peace between Israel and Iran, non of the players give a rats a$$ weather we object or not.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 08 May 2019 10:46

abhik wrote:India is a non player in ME, let's not delude ourselves that we will be able to broker a peace between Israel and Iran, non of the players give a rats a$$ weather we object or not.

+1

Our Best method now is too quietly look at our interests and rise without too much visibility

Anujan · Post by **Anujan** » 08 May 2019 10:49

tandav wrote:This Iran action by USA is imposing unacceptably high cost to India. Is this cost of getting US support to get Masood Azhar and JeM blacklisted? ... not worth it IMHO unless there are extenuating circumstances.

Price cant be as low as getting Masood Azhar blacklisted. We've been dealing with them for 20 years now. We can deal with them for 20 years more.

The price probably is higher.

jagga · Post by **jagga** » 08 May 2019 23:47

Karthik S wrote:Don't think Iran will attack US assets, even when USS Vincennes shot down Iran Air 655, Iran didn't respond militarily.

Yes they did not. However, there is a thoery that Iran was behind the 'Pan Am Flight 103 (Lockerbie)' bombing. This was a payback by Iran.
Terrorist's daughter insists Tehran ordered destruction of Pan Am Flight 103 not Gaddafi's Libya

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 13 May 2019 15:01

Saudi energy minister says 2 Saudi oil tankers have been "sabotaged" causing significant damage near port of Fujairah. Reuters and AP reported explosions being heard in the port with no official confirmation.

Expect IN/IAF to prepare joint drills soon. IN always has at least one vessel in the region to respond to threats.

Official press release.
UAE says four cargo vessels 'sabotaged' off Fujairah coast

Earlier reports by Al Mayadeen and Sputnik exaggerated the scale of the incident and falsely claimed there was a major fire in Port of Fujairah

The incident took place on Sunday morning near UAE territorial waters in the Gulf of Oman.

It said that there had been no injuries or fatalities on board the vessels and no spill of chemicals or fuel.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Co-operation said acts of sabotage on civilian vessels and threatening the safety and lives of those on board "is a serious development".

An investigation is continuing. It did not apportion blame or identify suspects. The nature of the attack was not immediately clear and the names of the vessels and their operators are yet to be released.

But on Monday, the Saudi energy minister Khalid Al Falih confirmed two Saudi oil tankers were among those attacked, suffering "significant damage to the structures of the two vessels".

Reuters said shipping sources identified the Saudi vessels as Bahri-owned very large crude carrier tanker Amjad and crude tanker Al Marzoqah. Bahri, Saudi's national shipping carrier, has yet to comment.

Tanker industry tracking sites showed the Amjad is currently anchored several kilometres off Mirbah near Khor Fakkan and Al Marzoqah is anchored off Fujairah port.

Dr Abdullatif bin Rashid Al Zayani, Secretary General of the GCC, denounced the act of sabotage, describing it as "a serious escalation which demonstrates evil intents by those who planned and carried it out, undermining the safety of maritime traffic in the region and threatening the safety and lives of those on board".

Al Zayani called on the international community and international organisations concerned with maritime navigation to assume their political and legal responsibilities to prevent such acts by any parties attempting to undermine maritime traffic safety and security.

"Such irresponsible acts will increase tension and conflicts in the region and expose its peoples to great danger," he said.
Earlier, the UAE was the subject of false accounts of an attack after news outlets with links to the Kremlin, Hezbollah and Iran spread claims that a series of explosions had occurred on land at Fujairah’s port.

Reports that between seven and 10 oil tankers anchored at the port were in flames were shared widely on social media accounts on Sunday.

Some reports said that American and French warplanes had been flying over the port at the time of the incident.

The Foreign Ministry described the claims as "baseless and unfounded".

Peregrine · Post by **Peregrine** » 13 May 2019 15:09

X Posted Terroristan Thread!

Saudi Arabia’s oil tankers hit by 'sabotage attacks' as Gulf Saudi Arabia's oil tankers hit tensions soar – AFP

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia said on Monday two of its oil tankers were damaged in "sabotage attacks" in the Gulf as tensions soared in a region already shaken by a standoff between the United States and Iran.

It came as US secretary of state Mike Pompeo scrapped a planned visit to Moscow to head to Brussels instead for talks with European officials on Iran.

Tehran called for an investigation into the "alarming" attacks and warned of "adventurism" by foreign players to disrupt maritime security.

The United States has already strengthened its military presence in the region, including deploying a number of strategic B-52 bombers in response to alleged Iranian threats.

Saudi Arabia, the Islamic republic's regional arch-rival, condemned "the acts of sabotage which targeted commercial and civilian vessels near the territorial waters of the United Arab Emirates," a foreign ministry source said.

"This criminal act constitutes a serious threat to the security and safety of maritime navigation and adversely impacts regional and international peace and security," the source added.

The UAE said on Sunday that four commercial vessels of various nationalities had been targeted by acts of sabotage off the emirate of Fujairah.

Saudi energy minister Khalid al-Falih said the two tankers suffered "significant damage" but there were no casualties or any oil spill.

"Two Saudi oil tankers were subjected to a sabotage attack in the exclusive economic zone of the United Arab Emirates, off the coast of the Emirate of Fujairah, while on their way to cross into the Arabian Gulf," the SPA state news agency quoted Falih as saying.

Fujairah port is the only terminal in the UAE located on the coast, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, through which most Gulf oil exports pass.

Iran has repeatedly threatened to close the strait in case of a military confrontation with the United States.

One of the two tankers that was attacked was on its way to be loaded with crude oil from a Saudi oil terminal for customers in the United States, Falih said.

The UAE did not accuse anyone of responsibility but warned that "carrying out acts of sabotage on commercial and civilian vessels and threatening the safety and lives of those on board is a serious development".

No one was hurt and Abu Dhabi called on world powers to help keep maritime traffic safe.

Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Abbas Mousavi expressed concern over the incident and its possible consequences.

"The incidents in the Sea of Oman are alarming and regrettable," Mousavi said in an English-language statement on the ministry's website.

He also "warned against plots by ill-wishers to disrupt regional security" and "called for the vigilance of regional states in the face of any adventurism by foreign elements", the statement
added.

Almost all the oil exports of Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Qatar and Iran itself, at least 15 million barrels per day, are shipped through the Strait of Hormuz.

The Saudi minister denounced the attack on the vessels, saying it "aims to undermine the freedom of maritime navigation and the security of oil supplies to consumers all over the world."

He also urged the international community to "protect the safety of maritime navigation and the security of oil tankers, to mitigate against the adverse consequences of such incidents on energy markets, and the danger they pose to the global economy."

The UAE had earlier categorically denied reported on social media of massive explosions in oil tankers in the emirate.

The Pentagon said on Friday that it was deploying an amphibious assault ship and a Patriot missile battery to the Middle East to bolster an aircraft carrier force sent to counter alleged Iranian threats.

The increasing tensions come after Tehran said Wednesday it had stopped respecting limits on its nuclear activities agreed under a 2015 deal with major powers.

Iran said it was responding to the sweeping unilateral sanctions that Washington has re-imposed since it quit the agreement one year ago, which have dealt a severe blow to the Iranian economy.

Pompeo revised his travel plans to include a visit to Brussels on Monday to hold talks with French, British and German officials on "pressing matters" including Iran, a State Department official said.

As a result, the top US diplomat is scrapping a stop expected on Monday in Moscow, but will still head to the Russian Black Sea resort of Sochi on Tuesday to meet President Vladimir Putin and foreign minister Sergei Lavrov.

Cheers

kit · Post by **kit** » 13 May 2019 16:43

Aditya_V wrote:
abhik wrote:India is a non player in ME, let's not delude ourselves that we will be able to broker a peace between Israel and Iran, non of the players give a rats a$$ weather we object or not.
+1

Our Best method now is too quietly look at our interests and rise without too much
visibility

If looking at interests involves oil then makes sense. China is going to continue imports. US cannot guarantee lower oil price as from Iran..thanks to the great orangutan. India does need to import Iranian oil since it helps the economy. If the US cannot guarentee the same price we won't have any alternative.

They cannot keep threatening India with different acronyms in its relations with Iran and Russia. Since when did Washington s "enemies " become India's as well. ??