2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 07 May 2019 02:04

eklavya wrote:^^^^
Gorakhpur, Phulpur, Kairana by elections.

It works in practice, although I’m not sure if it works in theory.

By elections don’t have a significant turnout. They’re outliers and often represent anti-incumbency. Now that said, in UP I do think there will be a loss of a few seats due to anti incumbency and MGB seat arrangement. IMHO, I expect BJP to get at least 50.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 07 May 2019 02:14

How do you know the by-elections were taken seriously by BJP? Many reports indicated they were lazy and hence even imperfect MGB worked. Not necessarily the case here.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 07 May 2019 02:16

eklavya wrote:^^^^
Gorakhpur, Phulpur, Kairana by elections.

It works in practice, although I’m not sure if it works in theory.

Doesn't answer the question.

Why would you, or people in general during a GE cycle, choose to go with a local coalition whose leaders are at best in an alliance of convenience, as opposed to a national leader ?

In general, why is MGB better for India ? Specifically, why is a local caste clan party and another local caste clan party combining together a good choice for the future of the Republic of India, the world's 3rd largest economy and the fastest growing major economy ? What does Akhilesh or Mayawati offer in the form of national leadership that benefits all Indians, over what the present leader does ?

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 07 May 2019 02:31

eklavya wrote:^^^^
Actually, it’s desperation tactics. PM of 2014-19 wants to fight on the record of the PM of 1984-89. Why not fight on the achievements of the last 5 years e.g. demonetisation.

Because raul/rahul the owner of BackOps in brishitland whose partner got contract in scorpene submarine- Who has been named by christian michel as implicit in vivo Augusta Westland helicopter deal wasn't ready to give any clarification, pliant media only amplifying his 'Chor' 'Rafale' 'Anil-ambani' comment but not ready for any clarification about 1 lakh crores contracts given to anil-ambani during 2004-2013

So now his whole khandaan is being exposed.

Raveen · Post by **Raveen** » 07 May 2019 02:39

eklavya wrote:^^^^
Raveen:

BJP vote share in UP in 2014 general election was 41.3%. Combined vote share of BSP and SP was 41.8%. Another 7.5% for INC.

BJP vote share in 2017 UP assembly elections was 39.7%. Combined vote share of BSP and SP was 44.2%. Another 6.2% for INC.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Ut ... y_election

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results ... l_election

Haha only if we were a two party presidential system would that work bud - break it down by district and we had your commie cake and ate it too

Anujan · Post by **Anujan** » 07 May 2019 02:45

Manish_sharma.
No name calling please. Edit your post.

Eklavya, dragging Rajiv Gandhi is fair game. The only qualification for Rahul Gandhi/Priyanka/Sonia is that they are related to the Gandhi-Nehru family. If they want to garner votes using family connection and various Rajiv/Indira/Nehru yojanas, they should be willing to defend the record of Rajiv/Indira/Nehru.

Another subtle thing you are missing. Rahul probably has foreign election consultants. Probably from Massa. One technique is to attack the opponent alleging your biggest weakness is their weakness and therefore doing a equal==equal. Example was GB Jr (who dropped out of service and had his daddy help him out) attacking John Kerry (genuine war hero) as having obtained medals because he put his squadmates in danger to get medals.

Defence corruption is synonymous with Bofors. Rahul Gandhi is attacking BJP on alleged defence corruption. It's well thought out.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 07 May 2019 02:45

Burkha dutt said "we have to make this election as 543 local elections"

So every little leader started their own backyard game: Naidu, KCR, Mamta, Akalless+Maya, Naveen, PAPPU, Kujli, Siddhu, Kamal, Stalin ...

Divide India whatever means you can ... Casteism, Regionalism, Islamism, UC vs Dalits ...

Speak South India getting screwed in K'taka, TN

Make CON scums vote cutting in UP and use Maya/Akalless for caste coalition

Use MaunMohan/Sidhu/Amrinder to push Sikh vs Hindu divide

Patel Quota
Rajputs agitation on movies
Dalit atrocities amendment to agitate Upper castes
Dalit anger on Atrocities act judgment
Lingayat as separate religion

So scums can use all caste/communal/regional/linguistic with full co-operation of media, Islamists, EJs, foreign intelligence, Cambridge Analytica, Twitter, FB.

But Modi should play by their book while they use ISI/EJ/European/Italian books

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 07 May 2019 02:47

Manish Sharma,
No name calling.
Refute the arguments not the person.

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 07 May 2019 02:52

Suraj wrote:
eklavya wrote:^^^^
Gorakhpur, Phulpur, Kairana by elections.

It works in practice, although I’m not sure if it works in theory.
Doesn't answer the question.

Why would you, or people in general during a GE cycle, choose to go with a local coalition whose leaders are at best in an alliance of convenience, as opposed to a national leader ?

In general, why is MGB better for India ? Specifically, why is a local caste clan party and another local caste clan party combining together a good choice for the future of the Republic of India, the world's 3rd largest economy and the fastest growing major economy ? What does Akhilesh or Mayawati offer in the form of national leadership that benefits all Indians, over what the present leader does ?

The reality is that a large proportion of the electorate does vote for regional parties and marginal parties in general elections as well. Anyway, 23 May will reveal all.

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 07 May 2019 03:01

Anujan wrote:Manish_sharma.
No name calling please. Edit your post.

Eklavya, dragging Rajiv Gandhi is fair game. The only qualification for Rahul Gandhi/Priyanka/Sonia is that they are related to the Gandhi-Nehru family. If they want to garner votes using family connection and various Rajiv/Indira/Nehru yojanas, they should be willing to defend the record of Rajiv/Indira/Nehru.

Another subtle thing you are missing. Rahul probably has foreign election consultants. Probably from Massa. One technique is to attack the opponent alleging your biggest weakness is their weakness and therefore doing a equal==equal. Example was GB Jr (who dropped out of service and had his daddy help him out) attacking John Kerry (genuine war hero) as having obtained medals because he put his squadmates in danger to get medals.

Defence corruption is synonymous with Bofors. Rahul Gandhi is attacking BJP on alleged defence corruption. It's well thought out.

Anujan, it’s Sonia Gandhi’s record over 2004-14 that landed INC with 44 seats in 2014. It remains to be seen if attacking Rajiv Gandhi in 2019 yields electoral benefits. Personally, I don’t think the Rafale deal has lost the BJP a single vote, but I might be wrong.

Lilo · Post by **Lilo** » 07 May 2019 03:13

Because chaiwallah NaMo (here on referred to as "undesireable no 1") through his "sabka saath sabka vikas" governance is demolishing someone's precious Nehruvian "Idea of India" where sickulars are supposed to have the first right of resources as opposed to dutty heathens as reiterated by Economist PM MMS .

It may be moth eaten but how dare he destroy such a treasured idea which was deified in the sanctum sanctorum of Doon school & propagated as the best thing after sliced bread to the young bacche babas i.e the future maibaaps "destined" to rule the dutty unwashed masses teeming outside ?

PM Rajiv Gandhi after all is the prized alumini , how dare this "undesiraable no 1" drag "Rajeev Sir" in and call him "BhrashtachariNo1" ?

Anujan · Post by **Anujan** » 07 May 2019 03:19

eklavya wrote:
Anujan, it’s Sonia Gandhi’s record over 2004-14 that landed INC with 44 seats in 2014. It remains to be seen if attacking Rajiv Gandhi in 2019 yields electoral benefits. Personally, I don’t think the Rafale deal has lost the BJP a single vote, but I might be wrong.

John Kerry made the mistake of saying "no no no, I won the medals for bravery". Others made the mistake by saying "how can you accuse the Army of handing out medals without proper scrutiny?". The right answer was "At least I picked up a gun and fought, what did you do?"

There are parallels in Bofors/Rafale. One section is saying "How can you accuse NaMo without evidence", another section is saying "how can you cast aspersions when the process was followed well?" the right answer for "Chowkidar Chor hai" is "Your father was Brashtachari No 1". In that sense it is reasonable.

Rafale might not have mattered, but Bofors did cost Rajiv his election. N Ram was on a mission to rake up muck on Rafale and Rahul was on a constant din about 30,000 Crore.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 07 May 2019 03:33

RajD wrote:Breaking news:
Guys, Congress has just launched a complaint against Namo for his comments on Rajiv Gandhi. Abhishek Manu Singhvi just briefed reporters outside EC office.

Criticism of Narendra Modi for his remarks against Rajiv Gandhi misses the point; Congress’ overreaction may backfire

The second issue, however, is more complicated. The Delhi High Court had indeed exonerated Rajiv Gandhi of collusion in the scam in 2011 due to lack of evidence against him, but the Bofors scandal continues to remain as a millstone around the Congress’ neck. The controversy has refused to die down despite the court’s acquittal, and till date, the Bofors scandal finds the Congress on the defensive.

What has also kept the embers burning are periodic leaks, reports and declassification of secret files that cast new light on the scandal and cast Rajiv Gandhi, the exonerated leader, in unfavorable light.

In 2013, India Today had reported about a series of Kissinger Cables that had been released by whistleblower website WikiLeaks. These secret cables suggest that “Rajiv Gandhi may have been an arms middleman way before he became the prime minister of the country.”

Four years later, in 2017, a declassified report by US secret service Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) indicated that Sweden had retracted an investigation into the Bofors scandal to avoid embarrassing then prime minister Rajiv Gandhi in a "scheme" with India that kept payments made to middlemen secret. According to Economic Times, that quoted the declassified CIA document, “Stockholm wanted to save Gandhi the troubles caused him (sic) by the Swedish leak and Nobel industries (the mother company) wanted to avoid a bribery indictment. The two sides cooperated therefore, on a scheme, to keep details of the payments secret. Stockholm eventually called off the entire bribery investigation.”

Journalist Chitra Subramaniam, who cracked the Bofors scandal over three decades ago, wrote in The News Minute of a “quid pro quo” between Rajiv Gandhi and his Swedish counterpart Olof Palme. According to the report, both the leaders “discussed the details of a financial quid-pro-quo before the Bofors gun deal was signed in March 1986. Bofors would pay money to a foundation in Sweden to make it easier for payments to be made to Indians and others.” Written in 2017, the article mentions that “this is the first time that any official confirmation has been made about a quid-pro-quo which has been a matter of conjecture but never established.”

Taking these into context, indignant outrage over Rajiv Gandhi’s name being “sullied” over the Bofors scandal appears a bit rich. Congress’s overreaction on this issue, however, may backfire. The political discourse is now no longer a one-way street.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 07 May 2019 03:40

eklavya wrote:The reality is that a large proportion of the electorate does vote for regional parties and marginal parties in general elections as well. Anyway, 23 May will reveal all.

Still doesn't answer the question.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 07 May 2019 03:50

सव्यसाची -SAVYASACHI
‏

@savvyasaachi
May 5
More
#UP

Once again seeing a consolidation of Kurmis, Kushwahas, Lodhs, Telis, Rajputs, Gurjars etc, the so called NYOBCs behind Modi across Pvnchl+Avdh region,INC is said 2 be playing 'vote cut', but marginal effect on ground

X Factor- Young Yadavs in good number backing Modi

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 07 May 2019 03:56

BJP in pink vs Congress in blue on the topic of chor.

https://twitter.com/madhukishwar/status ... 27073?s=19

(Marginally NSFW)

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 07 May 2019 03:59

Suraj wrote:सव्यसाची -SAVYASACHI
‏

@savvyasaachi
May 5
More
#UP

Once again seeing a consolidation of Kurmis, Kushwahas, Lodhs, Telis, Rajputs, Gurjars etc, the so called NYOBCs behind Modi across Pvnchl+Avdh region,INC is said 2 be playing 'vote cut', but marginal effect on ground

X Factor- Young Yadavs in good number backing Modi

The surprise for the Thugs is that united India is going to vote in this 2019 elections.
The old Divide and Rule policy that stood Congress and its breakaway factions in good stead for 70 years is collapsing.

Let me say something the pollsters don't want to say.
Even some of Mayawati Jatavs are voting for NaMo where they have fair choice.

The old divisions of W.W> Hunter are erasing.

Primus BTW your poem sentiment of an 'Ek Naya Azadi' is resonating in India.
Not in your words but in sentiment.
many voters are saying they are voting for a new freedom.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 07 May 2019 04:04

BTW When is Abhisex Singhvi planning to pay the taxes he woes or go to jail?
Saying termites ate his account books is not enough.
he needs to payback the taxes or the ED folks will uncover his accounts.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 07 May 2019 04:07

eklavya wrote:Vote shares will not transfer perfectly. What I was trying to show was that between 2014 and 2017, the BJP lost popularity in UP. Some of that might have to do with demonetisation. If Yogi Adityanath has governed well, perhaps the BJP vote share in 2019 might go up. Personally, I think his language (which has earned him campaign bans from the ECI) will lose the BJP more votes than it will gain.

More likely, BJP vote share came down as it was a state election. People are less likely to waste their votes in a national election on local parties, so national parties do enjoy an advantage in general elections.

As for vote transfers, if 80% of the vote transfers, it is considered fabulous. There is something called a `candidate vote', which simply cannot be transferred. And finally, all this minority consolidation is going to trigger a Hindu counter-consolidation. You cannot consolidate only on one side. It has its own reactions [just as things have started happening in Kerala, especially in the old Travancore region].

Adding SP+BSP+RLD votes may be good arithmetic, but it is bad commonsense.

PS: The Muslims in particular have become accustomed to being the kingmaker for long. Now, I am sensing that there is a counter mobilisation from the Hindu side. The BJP may be facing a `Muslim veto', but the `Hindu vote' is now, with the rapidly expanding middle class, fast becoming the decisive force. In fact, it is the Congress that may have to face a `Hindu veto' now. Something to remember.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 07 May 2019 04:10

Shanmukh
How is it going in Bengal? Whats your take on the 5 Phases so far?

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 07 May 2019 04:10

If Modi gets through this election, I expect him to be elected thrice more, be around for the next 15 years all the way to 2034 and change this country totally. Or at least 10.more years till he is 78, though I think he can pull it to 83 given his spartan lifestyle, yoga and mental strength. The end of wannabe gora saheb rule to a true son of the soil establishment. Call it a dream, a gut feel, whatever. But with him at the helm, Indias time has finally arrived.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 07 May 2019 04:23

ramana wrote:Shanmukh
How is it going in Bengal? Whats your take on the 5 Phases so far?

Hard to guess, Ramana-garu. This is, realistically speaking, BJP's first big election in the state where they are in contest in nearly every seat. The CPM is disintegrating big time and almost all the CPM's urban middle class vote is moving to the BJP. The Bengali middle class has made the decisive move to the BJP. There is, definitely, an undercurrent in favour of the BJP. Mamata is fighting with her back to the wall, and she has sent instructions to her cadres that there should be campaigning only on Hindu themes.

The BJP had ~17% of the vote in LS14. I think they have crossed the 30% vote now and are in the early 30%s [they have taken ~15% of the vote from the Congress, TMC and the CPM].

As for BJP, how many they will win is hard to say, but I would be surprised if they don't get to ~10, at least. The reason that it is so hard to predict the number of seats for the BJP is that a) There are a large number of voters who won't say anything, but are quietly voting the BJP. b) Nearly every second vote that the BJP is getting is a vote it is getting for the first time. This is incredibly hard to predict in terms of localisation.

But, as I said, BJP should definitely get ~10 seats. More than that is hard to say.

Personally, I am just as interested in the elections of three other states, viz - Kerala, Tamizh Nadu, and Telangana - apart from Bengal.

I am hearing of Hindu consolidation in favour of BJP in odd parts of Kerala and Southern TN - where one would not normally expect Hindu consolidation. By 2024, I won't be surprised if BJP has not moved into a strong position in S Travancore and S Malabar regions. And oddly, very very oddly, I am hearing of Hindu consolidation in far south of TN - Kanyakumari, Thirunelveli and Ramanathapuram in this election. And in Telangana, people are claiming that the Congress vote is collapsing.

Well, we will know soon.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 07 May 2019 04:30

ANI
‏
Verified account

@ANI
Follow Follow @ANI
More
WB CM in Jhargram earlier today: I don't consider him the country's PM, hence I didn't sit for the meeting.I don't want to be seen with him on the same platform. I'll speak to the next PM.We can take care of cyclone damage by ourselves. We don't need Centre's help ahead of polls.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 07 May 2019 04:37

Shanmukh wrote:
ramana wrote:Shanmukh
How is it going in Bengal? Whats your take on the 5 Phases so far?
Hard to guess, Ramana-garu. This is, realistically speaking, BJP's first big election in the state where they are in contest in nearly every seat. The CPM is disintegrating big time and almost all the CPM's urban middle class vote is moving to the BJP. The Bengali middle class has made the decisive move to the BJP. There is, definitely, an undercurrent in favour of the BJP. Mamata is fighting with her back to the wall, and she has sent instructions to her cadres that there should be campaigning only on Hindu themes.

The BJP had ~17% of the vote in LS14. I think they have crossed the 30% vote now and are in the early 30%s [they have taken ~15% of the vote from the Congress, TMC and the CPM].

As for BJP, how many they will win is hard to say, but I would be surprised if they don't get to ~10, at least. The reason that it is so hard to predict the number of seats for the BJP is that a) There are a large number of voters who won't say anything, but are quietly voting the BJP. b) Nearly every second vote that the BJP is getting is a vote it is getting for the first time. This is incredibly hard to predict in terms of localisation.

But, as I said, BJP should definitely get ~10 seats. More than that is hard to say.

Personally, I am just as interested in the elections of three other states, viz - Kerala, Tamizh Nadu, and Telangana - apart from Bengal.

I am hearing of Hindu consolidation in favour of BJP in odd parts of Kerala and Southern TN - where one would not normally expect Hindu consolidation. By 2024, I won't be surprised if BJP has not moved into a strong position in S Travancore and S Malabar regions. And oddly, very very oddly, I am hearing of Hindu consolidation in far south of TN - Kanyakumari, Thirunelveli and Ramanathapuram in this election. And in Telangana, people are claiming that the Congress vote is collapsing.

Well, we will know soon.

I heard Telangana might get up to 5 seats for BJP ...

Lot of sources said TN has a surprise surprise for DMK too ...

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 07 May 2019 04:41

vijayk wrote: I heard Telangana might get up to 5 seats for BJP ...

Lot of sources said TN has a surprise surprise for DMK too ...

Wow! Very interesting! Which 5 seats are people predicting for BJP in Telangana? I had given up hope of BJP winning even Secunderabad .....

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 07 May 2019 04:42

Karan M wrote:If Modi gets through this election, I expect him to be elected thrice more, be around for the next 15 years all the way to 2034 and change this country totally. Or at least 10.more years till he is 78, though I think he can pull it to 83 given his spartan lifestyle, yoga and mental strength. The end of wannabe gora saheb rule to a true son of the soil establishment. Call it a dream, a gut feel, whatever. But with him at the helm, Indias time has finally arrived.

Aap ke muh meh ghee-shakaar.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 07 May 2019 04:44

Shanmukh wrote:
vijayk wrote: I heard Telangana might get up to 5 seats for BJP ...

Lot of sources said TN has a surprise surprise for DMK too ...
Wow! Very interesting! Which 5 seats are people predicting for BJP in Telangana? I had given up hope of BJP winning even Secunderabad .....

Don't really . was surprised too. I too have given up hope.
Lot of anger on KCR. Not going for CON party. KCR Governance is very weak as the exam tragedy showed.
I haven't seen one Telangana guy being against Modi in my friend's circle. All love Modi.
As some folks from Telangana put it, many rural youth plumped for BJP. Hard to know. Even BJP did not anticipate.

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 07 May 2019 04:45

Even PP who seems to be overly confident everywhere else predicted a golden duck for BJP in AP and Telangana. Where did you hear about 5 seats?

rajsunder · Post by **rajsunder** » 07 May 2019 04:57

Primus wrote:
Suraj wrote:
I used to wonder how people in SoKo and Taiwan kept quiet about famous massacres in their dictatorship days and never sought to learn more. Turns out we have our share of the same that most of us don't know of either.
Almost 30 yrs ago, family members were invited to view a video of the shootings of kar-sevaks by Tender Singh's police in the Ayodhya events in 1990. The video was shot secretly and was also screened in secrecy for a few people in Delhi. I was told it showed the victims being shot in the head and bodies dragged around. The brutality with which these poor folk were gunned down and their bodies defiled was very difficult to watch as per family reports. People were treated worse than cattle and yet there was no national outrage and no mainstream reporting. That was the day many in Delhi decided to become BJP supporters.

This video casatte was shared all over India. I did not see it but knew people who saw it. After seeing this video people brought ayodhya ram temple donation coupons

OmkarC · Post by **OmkarC** » 07 May 2019 05:20

vijayk wrote:
Shanmukh wrote:
Wow! Very interesting! Which 5 seats are people predicting for BJP in Telangana? I had given up hope of BJP winning even Secunderabad .....
Don't really . was surprised too. I too have given up hope.
Lot of anger on KCR. Not going for CON party. KCR Governance is very weak as the exam tragedy showed.
I haven't seen one Telangana guy being against Modi in my friend's circle. All love Modi.
As some folks from Telangana put it, many rural youth plumped for BJP. Hard to know. Even BJP did not anticipate.

Let's make sure we aren't amplifying rumors.The collective best case prediction I saw till date was 3 (Mehboobnagar, Karimnagar & Nizamabad), nominal was 2 (Mehboobnagar & Karimnagar). Very unlikely to win Secunderabad. And while rural youth are pumping for BJP - not sure its uniform across the state or beyond these traditional hindutva places.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 07 May 2019 05:51

Suraj wrote:ANI
‏
Verified account

@ANI
Follow Follow @ANI
More
WB CM in Jhargram earlier today: I don't consider him the country's PM, hence I didn't sit for the meeting.I don't want to be seen with him on the same platform. I'll speak to the next PM.We can take care of cyclone damage by ourselves. We don't need Centre's help ahead of polls.

rajsunder · Post by **rajsunder** » 07 May 2019 06:03

Ardeshir wrote:I am absolutely astounded that a member on this forum is justifying and/or making excuses for the Gandhi scoundrels. Rajiv Gandhi undoubtedly unleashed his attack dogs on the Sikhs, just as decades ago, the Congress machinery had launched attacks on Punekar brahmins after the death of MK Gandhi.

And not just that, they even made the claiming of compensation by the survivors near impossible. My father's colleague had a relative who was burned alive in the riots. The family filed many applications and petitions for compensation which they were entitled to, but on some pretext, were always denied. My father was close to Pramod Mahajan, and when Atalji came to power, through Mahajanji was able to get the family the compensation they had been chasing for over a decade. Not only did they unleash violence, but wanted to teach them a lesson after that too. This was a systematic use of government machinery to target an Indic group, nothing can whitewash that.

Police who tried to help fleeing Sikhs by providing them shelter in police stations and police who tried to stop rioters were suspended by the home ministry. Cases were thrown on them.suspended police survived on half salaries till ABV era.
I think someone should take a documentary on these police personal and release it just before next punjab assembly elections.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 07 May 2019 06:34

Considering that BJP won only one assembly seat in TS and TRS swept the elections, I am suspecting BJP cross voted to keep congress out. BJP vote % was 7% which is very low even for Telangana. If BJP wins even a few seats for lok sabha or increases its vote share significantly, it will confirm my suspicion.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 07 May 2019 07:02

people looking for counterpoint - Prasunn Bajpei (a known BJP hater). Nevertheless, look at this long analysis (monologue) and the logic behind why BJP may be loosing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dTuseoMSL8A

darshan · Post by **darshan** » 07 May 2019 07:13

disha · Post by **disha** » 07 May 2019 07:15

Karan M wrote:If Modi gets through this election, I expect him to be elected thrice more, be around for the next 15 years all the way to 2034 and change this country totally. Or at least 10.more years till he is 78, though I think he can pull it to 83 given his spartan lifestyle, yoga and mental strength. The end of wannabe gora saheb rule to a true son of the soil establishment. Call it a dream, a gut feel, whatever. But with him at the helm, Indias time has finally arrived.

^I pointed out as much in 2011 and almost got "warned"

---

Primus'ji., Your poem on 'Ek Nayi Azaadi' was what I felt in 2014. Why is it finding resonance now? It is because I think people are realizing that they are independent now and going in droves and vote to remain independent. 2014 was the new hope, and this is democracy in action trying to retain that hope. Hence the resonance with your poem.

---

PP is predicting that CONgoons will be getting less than <50 seats. My prediction is that it will be difficult for CONgoons to better its 2014 tally. One more of such a drubbing is required in 2024. After that CONgoon will be preparing Vadra kids - Miraya and Rehan for 2029 (they already were put out in wayanad)*

Either way, CONgoons at around 10-15% vote share is needed to keep the "balance". Caste based dynastic parties are relegated as regional satraps. Appeal of BMW or Maomata or Akkalless or KCR or CBN or Jagan or Pawar is relegated to some 20-30 seats within their regions. Only way they can form government is half a dozen of this satrapies come together with outside support from CONgoons.

Even that is not bad for India, since the regional dynastic satrapies have to figure out how to articulate an alternate view point and coalesce towards it.

Though two more wins for BJP is required for the current CONgoon based ideology of casteist/religion based ideology is discarded.

---

*It is rumoured that only people with "R" in their name (Jawahar/LBS/Indira/Rajiv/Charan/IKG/NarsimhaRao/NaMo) can become prime minister of India. MMS was an aberration. Either way, CONgoons will always name their kids with 'R' in the name.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 07 May 2019 07:20

Shanmukh

The CPM is disintegrating big time and almost all the CPM's urban middle class vote is moving to the BJP. The Bengali middle class has made the decisive move to the BJP. There is, definitely, an undercurrent in favour of the BJP.

This is a very significant observation.

Do you know why the French Revolution succeeded?
It was when the bourgeois decided to support the Revolution and overthrow the King and the French Nobility.
Same thing is happening in Bengal.
And Jihadidi is getting as delusional as the French King and Queen.

Vips · Post by **Vips** » 07 May 2019 07:24

Karan M wrote:First, Using combined vote share presupposes all the votes will transfer seamlessly as that artificial metric depicts. Hardly the case when 2 mortal rivals supposedly collaborate.

There has been media reports and analysis that while the BSP votes will largely transfer to SP it is not he same the other way round. NaMo is right when he says that as soon as the elections are over Bua and Babua will be ready to scratch each others face.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 07 May 2019 07:41

ramana wrote:Shanmukh

The CPM is disintegrating big time and almost all the CPM's urban middle class vote is moving to the BJP. The Bengali middle class has made the decisive move to the BJP. There is, definitely, an undercurrent in favour of the BJP.
This is a very significant observation.

Do you know why the French Revolution succeeded?
It was when the bourgeois decided to support the Revolution and overthrow the King and the French Nobility.
Same thing is happening in Bengal.
And Jihadidi is getting as delusional as the French King and Queen.

Ramana-garu,
Her days in power may well be numbered, but there are two qualities that Mamata Banerjee has that Louix XVI lacked: a) Courage b) Fighting spirit. She has a hundred vices, but she won't go down without a fight. I have no love for her, and she is frankly dangerous, but there is no denying her fighting spirit and courage.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 07 May 2019 08:09

guys, are we in a echo chamber? 543, Chintamani, savyasachi..these guys are doing technical analysis, with some inputs (some in form of limited survey, not a true exit poll) - voting share by segments etc. Today's Chanakya guys input was significant that NDA (not BJP) is some short of 272.
I am more concerned by NAMO attack (is he desperate?). I am not at all talking about morality, just the rhetoric. Is the good side winning? Then why desperation (why I say is, in start of the poll, a group of us had decided that how can we get an exit poll, without getting one by following what leaders say and also what some obvious news anchor who would have access to exit poll - boxer, his voice, Omllate Cuopta etc.
The signal is mixed, it is not one sided as 543 3tc. will like you to believe.