fanne wrote:2009 election we have bad analysis. Congress won (in spite of 26/11) because of many factors, most important being, NAREGA. Modi welfare scheme are 10 times bigger. Hope it does the trick for 2019
Even now we are doing lazy analysis of 2004 and 2009.
On 2009, there was a certain feel good sentiment due to growth and stagflation had not hit yet. Further, the feudal lines via NREGA was consolidated.
Think it from the perspective of the bottom third. They are below or at poverty line and even if they are hovering a little above poverty line any shock (accident, medical illness etc) pushes them below the poverty line.
At this point, humans are living at subsistence. They are looking for food on an hourly basis! Yes at least in 2009, 30% of Indians still had to worry about getting the next meal. Leave shelter and clothing out of the way.
In this scenario, NREGA provided some hope. Even if 80% was eaten up by the local "goonda" or local caste leader, at least 20% used to flow into their kitty providing some hope.
By 2009, a post-modern feudal system was very much in place and the voting patterns followed that feudal lines. NREGA should be viewed as the bloodline for that feudal distribution network. For both the benefactor and the receiver. This is easily 40% of the population. Urban and rural combined.
Take the case of UP itself. @70 seates in UP in 2009 can be said to be won on feudal lines itself (CONgoons, SP, BSP). In such a scenario, voting outside of the feudal line was risky. Since you will lose the benefit of being within the group for something which is not tangible. Patriotism is not tangible (it does not put food in the tummy), Ram temple is not tangible (it does not put shelter over you) and so on. To repeat, if your focus is to get the next meal to survive, everything else goes on the back burner, And therein hangs the core tale.
In 2009, there was no leader on the horizon from the BJP (the primary opposition party, the rest being caste based dynastic groupings) that could provide tangible gains for large swathes of population. Ex Deputy-PM LKA was already pushing 80+ years. Hon. ex-PM ABV had retired from public life. BJP was direction less and what it got was more or less its core vote base (@20%, which in itself is significant!).
So what happened in 2014. UPA-2 did double down on mai-baap and brought in more of the same. The feudal society was not just sustained but was enhanced. Still it did not help!
Part of the reason is the economic conditions. There is only so much a trickle down economy can do, particularly in the face of stagflation. When you get Rs. 10 to get food, but the food inflation is high so much so that it is out of reach, it breeds resentment. Particularly when you know what is meant for you is taken away by the "system". Of course there is the problem of employment, opportunities, corruption etc ... But that is middle-class worries.
Enter Modi. A regional leader who did create enormous economic opportunities for his people in spite of adversities. He had ideas. He had implemented them. He was charismatic and here is one person who could deliver results. Hence large swathes converted.
2014 was a vote for hope. 2019 is a vote for continuation of that hope.
If one looks at last 5 years dispassionately, the goal of the government was to break the feudal chains. Keep food inflation in check (it is a distribution challenge and not production, so good roads/infrastructure/DFCs etc), setup JAM (cut out the middle-men, get the deposit directly into their bank accounts), provide the social net (ayushman, accident insurance) that ensures that once you are above poverty line, an untoward accident does not push you back into poverty line. Mudra scheme, allows another layer of credit to bypass the local hierarchy.
The above was a bold bet. And is paying off in spades. It broke the back of the post-modern feudal society. Hence all feudalistic parties (dynastic parties) are staring at irrelevancy. CONgoons, SP/BSP etc.
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. Doubt it will come to that. Phir ek bar (and anekbar) Namo sarkar.