2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Mukesh.Kumar · Post by **Mukesh.Kumar** » 19 May 2019 17:14

Meanwhile BB goes all out:

Dr Praveen Patil
‏ @5Forty3
17m17 minutes ago

#AbkiBaar300Paar Modi was simply unstoppable after phase 1... This will be a watershed election in India's political history!
Seriously worried about some of the 'illiberal' journos losing their sanity and making wild proclamations and allegations!!
15 replies 221 retweets 475 likes

Krita · Post by **Krita** » 19 May 2019 17:37

Lilo wrote:
Rahul M wrote:

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Netflix is actively pushing the "Resist against the Hindurashtra" narrative portraying Hindus as Nazis for all the Libtards post 2019 if the results turn out to be OK(touchwood) for BJP.

This show supposedly debuts on June 15.

I have canceled my subscription today after seeing the trailer. Netflix has lot of D grade content and now this anti-Hindu antics.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 19 May 2019 18:04

10 mins to blastoff.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 19 May 2019 18:16

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jX9_OYP_oJE
Republic has exit polls of both YR Deshmukh and Pradip Bhandari at 6:30 PM India time..

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 19 May 2019 18:19

They will drone for about 3-4 hrs dissecting the numbers statewise and only by 9 or 10 pm will they put up the all India tally.

As far as I am concerned I will be satisfied with <<Previous Win>> + 1 for the BJP. Anything over and above is malai on top.

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 19 May 2019 18:23

The EC rule seems to be that exit polls can only be declared 30 minutes after polls close. Which means 6:30 pm IST.

Meanwhile, it seems Pappu has targeted EC according to republic TV panelists

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 19 May 2019 18:24

That's ok ... most folks will read this as conceding defeat.

He is free to abuse the PM, the EC and even the SC.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 19 May 2019 18:45

NDA 287 according to c - voter.
236 for BJP.
42% votes for NDA.

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 19 May 2019 18:46

Just a blast from the past...

In 2014, the last opinion polls predicted around 250-260 for NDA (not BJP), and all the exit polls predicted 250-295 for NDA except for Yesterdays Chanakya which predicted 340. Actual result was BJP 282 and NDA 336.

In 2019, the last opinion polls predicted 270-310 for NDA, let us see what the exit polls are claiming.

It is not unreasonable to believe that the exit polls will underestimate the NaMo wave. And nobody has any clue about how they convert the results on vote share into seats.

I tend to agree with Dr. BB's bredictions. I think it will be 280+ BJP and 330+ NDA. Could be higher too.

As I write, the first poll is out...IndiaTV...showing Delhi clean sweep for BJP!

Raam naam japo.

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 19 May 2019 18:48

hanumadu wrote:NDA 287 according to c - voter.
236 for BJP.
42% votes for NDA.

Goswami has a "double exit poll" (CVoter and JanKiBaat). Let us see what Bhandari says.

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 19 May 2019 18:49

Bhandari claims 305 for NDA. 264 for BJP. Also he says these are the "minimum numbers for BJP".

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 19 May 2019 18:51

unditv doesn't seem to have any exit poll, showing other channel's exit polls.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 19 May 2019 18:51

Jan Ki Baat - 305 for NDA. 254 to 274 to BJP.

India today giving 34-38 to DMK in TN.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 19 May 2019 18:53

MGB in UP - 40 according to c voter, 26 according to Jan ki Baat.

VikramA · Post by **VikramA** » 19 May 2019 18:53

india today :
karnataka : clean sweep for BJP
Tamil nadu: clean sweep for DMK
andra: clean sweep for YSR

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 19 May 2019 18:54

I recently read is somewhere that the winners always have the seat count underestimated in opinion/exit polls i.e to say they always get more seats than the exit polls show. This is a "data based" analysis of the past several elections and not just the 2014 one.

With BJP being shown nearing the half-way mark, one can confidently *assume* that their final tally will be higher.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 19 May 2019 18:55

Rahul M wrote:unditv doesn't seem to have any exit poll, showing other channel's exit polls.

No paisa??

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 19 May 2019 18:56

"Pankajs".... Yes. The reason is the margin of error. Usually the losing side has a larger number of seats in which they are leading with a thin majority. So any error in estimate the vote share will hurt the losing side a lot more than the winners.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 19 May 2019 18:57

Poll of Polls

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 19 May 2019 18:58

As usual all these polls are giving more to UPA than they will actually get.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 19 May 2019 18:59

Nidhi will cry into her bottle tonight.

nithish · Post by **nithish** » 19 May 2019 19:00

Summary of polls

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 19 May 2019 19:03

For all the 80's kids. This was before y'alls Avengers and Troy or Gladiator. Our first epic and stirring battle against overwhelming odds with one man steering the Pandavas to victory.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 19 May 2019 19:03

Wow! This time all the channels got right to the point and not meander around.

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 19 May 2019 19:03

The CVoter poll is showing 30% vote share for the UPA. That is way too high in my opinion.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 19 May 2019 19:08

VDP is also giving high % to UPA+

syam · Post by **syam** » 19 May 2019 19:08

For UP, it's going to be 70+ again for BJP.

Political trends don't fluctuate like some random waves. If there is a trend, it will continue for some time. BJP is popular there. And yogi and co doing tangible work, be it kumbh, cleaning up goons or implementing the schemes.

For Bihar, it will be 17. Uttarakhand 5 . Himachal Pradesh 4

The Bengal will be swing state. I don't have any estimates for that one. It can be 5 or it can be 15 or 25. I will stick to 5+.

That's wrap for Ganga river. Total100+ seats.

For Guj and Maha, its going to be 45+ .

For Madhya and Raj, it will be 50+.

Kar, Haryana and Delhi can give good numbers. I am expecting 30+.

I am giving grand total of 225+ to Modiji from his strong holds.

NE depends on Hemanth Biswa team. I am giving 10+. They may get more numbers. I removed all the swing seats, even those with 65% chance of winning . These numbers will stick. Remaining 40+ seats depends on rest of India. BJP will get zero from both AP states. Odissa, Kerala, TN might give the push.

congress will get 20+. other parties will get 25 - 10 seats for each. communists 5+. aap 0. SAD may recover.

there are like 150+ open seats. BJP has comfortable lead in all of these seats. Don't be surprised if it is 235+100. Have to see how my numbers will hold up on result day.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 19 May 2019 19:08

pankajs wrote:I recently read is somewhere that the winners always have the seat count underestimated in opinion/exit polls i.e to say they always get more seats than the exit polls show. This is a "data based" analysis of the past several elections and not just the 2014 one.

With BJP being shown nearing the half-way mark, one can confidently *assume* that their final tally will be higher.

Here is Prannoy Roy on his book on Indian Elections
https://theprint.in/pageturner/excerpt/ ... ss/237145/

To get it wrong is to be discredited and forever reminded of it, while getting a ‘close fight’ wrong is almost forgiven — if not forgotten. This is one key reason why poll forecasts tend to underestimate the winner, as pollsters (like voters!) ‘play safe’.

As I have stated before ... I will be satisfied IF BJP's final tally is <<Prev. Win Number>> + 1 where the +1 is for the naysayers AND the NDA stays around its previous number +/- 5.

VikramA · Post by **VikramA** » 19 May 2019 19:12

india today:
maharashtra: bjp -clean sweep

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 19 May 2019 19:14

$hit the exit poll is all over the place. The only thing is all of them giving BJP/NDA the next govt

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 19 May 2019 19:15

^^^And that is the only thing they are good for. The rest is in the error margin. No exit poll in India is capable of better than 2% error.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 19 May 2019 19:16

Politics Party fellow is saying anti-Modi netas suffer pre-mature ejaculate.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 19 May 2019 19:17

Today's Chanakya here
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UTqf4eJ ... r_embedded

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 19 May 2019 19:18

Indian Today
GOA = 2/2 for BJP

VikramA · Post by **VikramA** » 19 May 2019 19:18

india today
goa:bjp clean sweep
guj:bjp clean sweep
MP: bjp clean sweep( was not expecting that)

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 19 May 2019 19:19

VDP Associates is the first exit poll to give BJP majority (281) on its own...and NDA 333.

Let us see what IndiaTV says. They are going through it state by state.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 19 May 2019 19:19

Indian Today (For BJP)

MP > 26/28 out of 29

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 19 May 2019 19:19

Maharashtra 34 for NDA. Losing quite a bit from 2014.

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 19 May 2019 19:20

Let us also follow some of the individual contests of interest.

In KL, IndiaTV is projecting 1 seat for BJP....I am assuming that is Trivandrum.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 19 May 2019 19:20

Indian Today (For BJP)

KAr >> 21-22 out of <...>
Raj >> 23-25 out of 25 = Clean sweep