2019 General Elections News and Discussion

The Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to India's security environment, her strategic outlook on global affairs and as well as the effect of international relations in the Indian Subcontinent. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
Ardeshir
BRFite
Posts: 1114
Joined: 15 Jan 2008 03:10
Location: Londonistan/Nukkad

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by Ardeshir »

KL Dubey wrote:As usual all these polls are giving more to UPA than they will actually get.
I always wonder, to what end? Speaking out of their Musharrafs don't lead to loss of H&D, hainjee? :lol:
pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14746
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by pankajs »

Indian Today (For BJP)

Chattishgarh >> 7-8 out of 11 (CON 3-4)
Last edited by pankajs on 19 May 2019 19:23, edited 1 time in total.
KL Dubey
BRFite
Posts: 1756
Joined: 16 Dec 2016 22:34

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by KL Dubey »

Folks, I would suggest to NOT compare the exit poll "results" of 2019 with the actual results of 2014, especially for individual states. That is a fake comparison. If you want, compare the exit polls of 2014 and 2019.
hanumadu
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5168
Joined: 11 Nov 2002 12:31

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by hanumadu »

Chintamani


@IamIconoclast
50m50 minutes ago
More
#ChintamaniSpeaks #Elections2019 @Election_in Here is the most awaited #ExitPoll2019 by #Chintamani5Dots
BJP 285, NDA 347 (+/-16)
Cong 53, UPA 89 (+/- 2/3)
Others 107
UlanBatori
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14045
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by UlanBatori »

syam wrote: Political trends don't fluctuate like some random waves. If there is a trend, it will continue for some time.
K.L. Dubey wrote:Error margin of 2%

IMO this is the crux. We may predict that India will win, but it comes down to whether Dhoni manages a 6 off the last ball. OK, last 3 balls in this case.
I see that Amit Shah has said that they have been going all-out on the seats where BeeJayPee came close but did not win last time. Unfortunately the Ra-Gaddha-Bandhan (RGB) also are doing that.
There is no 80-20 victory margin in most constituencies. With the RGB trying not to stab other in the musharraf, the margins may be low end of single-digit at best.
So it is still last-over nail-biting onlee in every single constituency. No "sampled poll" can do any good here. It is not up to NaMo/Amit Shah to hit the last-over 6: it is up to every single voter.
Same happened in US Election. A 0.5% here and there is the difference between a "Red Landslide" and a "Blue Landslide".

OF COURSE, UBCN Predictor-Corrector has never been wrong. 300+ BJP, 350+ NDA. I think RGB voters will be very confused. Their netas may be anti-Modi but is the individual voter pro-RaGa when she may be a supporter of a local state party? She may see the RGB as treachery, sell-out to the hated congi.

Corrector result will be delayed to May 24. :mrgreen:
Last edited by UlanBatori on 19 May 2019 19:29, edited 1 time in total.
hanumadu
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5168
Joined: 11 Nov 2002 12:31

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by hanumadu »

pankajs wrote:Indian Today (For BJP)

KAr >> 21-22 out of <...>
Raj >> 23-25 out of 25 = Clean sweep
28 total seats in KA
Supratik
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6470
Joined: 09 Nov 2005 10:21
Location: USA

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by Supratik »

Naidu it seems made a big mistake. If you add BJP vote % he would have swept AP. BJP is taking up the space in TG left by Cong.
pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14746
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by pankajs »

Indian Today (For BJP)

Maha >> 38-42 (CON 6-10)
pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14746
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by pankajs »

Supratik wrote:Naidu it seems made a big mistake. If you add BJP vote % he would have swept AP. BJP is taking up the space in TG left by Cong.
Yup. He thought he could corner Modi. He ended up talking the axe to his own roots.
Last edited by pankajs on 19 May 2019 19:30, edited 1 time in total.
RKumar

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by RKumar »

Dont worry sirs ... NDA will lose only!!
hanumadu
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5168
Joined: 11 Nov 2002 12:31

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by hanumadu »

Today's Chanakya

Verified account

@TodaysChanakya
54s54 seconds ago
More
#TCPoll
Andhra Pradesh LS Seat Projection
TDP 17 ± 3 Seats
YSR Congress 8 ± 3 Seats
Others NIL
#News24TodaysChanakya
pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14746
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by pankajs »

Indian Today (For BJP)

Delhi >> 6-7 out of 7 => Clean Sweep

Switch between vote share of CON (30+) and AAP (17+)
Last edited by pankajs on 19 May 2019 19:33, edited 1 time in total.
putnanja
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4665
Joined: 26 Mar 2002 12:31
Location: searching for the next al-qaida #3

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by putnanja »

Where is Dilbu? I hope he will be on the forum on 23rd with his anti-jinx :D
KL Dubey
BRFite
Posts: 1756
Joined: 16 Dec 2016 22:34

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by KL Dubey »

Yesterday's Chanakya is the only one that is posting the error bars for their seat predictions. I commend that. Let us see what final tally they post.
Ardeshir
BRFite
Posts: 1114
Joined: 15 Jan 2008 03:10
Location: Londonistan/Nukkad

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by Ardeshir »

287 for NDA by CVoter.
Modijee will lose onlee!!! :(( :(( :((
pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14746
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by pankajs »

Indian Today (For BJP)

Punjab >> BJP (3-5 out of 13) CON (8-9 out of 13) AAP (0-1)
hanumadu
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5168
Joined: 11 Nov 2002 12:31

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by hanumadu »

Today's Chanakya

Verified account

@TodaysChanakya
2m2 minutes ago
More
#TCPoll
Telangana LS Seat Projection
BJP 1 ± 1 Seats
TRS 14 ± 2 Seats
Congress 1 ± 1 Seats
Others 1 ± 1 Seats
#News24TodaysChanakya
Supratik
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6470
Joined: 09 Nov 2005 10:21
Location: USA

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by Supratik »

chintamani

BJP 285+/- 16 NDA 347 +/- 17
pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14746
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by pankajs »

pankajs wrote:Indian Today (For BJP)

Delhi >> 6-7 out of 7 => Clean Sweep

Switch between vote share of CON (30+) and AAP (17+)
One reason why CON shied away from going for an alliance with AAP BUT AAP wanted the alliance. Now CON has a good chance in DElhi assembly while AAP will be reduced if we go by these numbers.
Ardeshir
BRFite
Posts: 1114
Joined: 15 Jan 2008 03:10
Location: Londonistan/Nukkad

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by Ardeshir »

"Shatrughn Sinha bilkul haar rahe hain" as per Bhandarijee. AoA!
hanumadu
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5168
Joined: 11 Nov 2002 12:31

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by hanumadu »

What is AP's result according to various polls?
pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14746
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by pankajs »

Indian Today (For BJP)

Haryana > 8-10 (CON 0-2) ou of 10 => Clean sweep

Only Rohtak in contest.
hanumadu
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5168
Joined: 11 Nov 2002 12:31

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by hanumadu »

pankajs wrote:
pankajs wrote:Indian Today (For BJP)

Delhi >> 6-7 out of 7 => Clean Sweep

Switch between vote share of CON (30+) and AAP (17+)
One reason why CON shied away from going for an alliance with AAP BUT AAP wanted the alliance. Now CON has a good chance in DElhi assembly while AAP will be reduced if we go by these numbers.
How does it matter if the goal of congress is to keep out BJP? That is why I am surprised congress did not tie up with Kejriwal.
pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14746
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by pankajs »

hanumadu wrote:What is AP's result according to various polls?
Someone will have to do that. I am on Indian Today's stream.
Singha
BRF Oldie
Posts: 66601
Joined: 13 Aug 2004 19:42
Location: the grasshopper lies heavy

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by Singha »

only newsx is giving 242 to NDA

rest all giving 290+ to NDA
Supratik
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6470
Joined: 09 Nov 2005 10:21
Location: USA

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by Supratik »

AP is mixed. some giving it to jagan others Naidu. Reason is vote % is close. BJP is getting 10% vote in AP. Naidu would have swept in alliance.
Last edited by Supratik on 19 May 2019 19:46, edited 1 time in total.
Lilo
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4080
Joined: 23 Jun 2007 09:08

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by Lilo »

TwitterIndia is livestreaming rrNDTV :rotfl:

https://twitter.com/MomentsIndia/status ... 7839042565
pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14746
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by pankajs »

hanumadu wrote:
pankajs wrote: One reason why CON shied away from going for an alliance with AAP BUT AAP wanted the alliance. Now CON has a good chance in DElhi assembly while AAP will be reduced if we go by these numbers.
How does it matter if the goal of congress is to keep out BJP? That is why I am surprised congress did not tie up with Kejriwal.
Delhi Assembly election is the target. GE 2019 was already lost to CON and they knew it! 7 seats in Delhi wouldn't make a difference in the final count.

I read it somewhere and the logic works for me.
hanumadu
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5168
Joined: 11 Nov 2002 12:31

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by hanumadu »

India TV

Verified account

@indiatvnews
12m12 minutes ago
More
India TV-CNX Exit Poll 2019 Live Updates: YSRCP predicted to win 18 seats in Andhra, UDF 14 in Kerala #IndiaTVExitPoll #LokSabhaElections2019
Contrasting predictions for AP from Today's Chanakya and India TV-CNX.
Zynda
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2309
Joined: 07 Jan 2006 00:37
Location: J4

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by Zynda »

NDA getting around 290 in most polls means that there is a good possibility of BJP not attaining majority by itself...
A_Gupta
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12065
Joined: 23 Oct 2001 11:31
Contact:

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by A_Gupta »

Is this “Leila” a Netflix production?

Netflix is allegedly data-driven, if is their production it is because their data indicates that they have an audience for this. Scary!

If it is licensed, then depends on what else the deal includes.
Ardeshir
BRFite
Posts: 1114
Joined: 15 Jan 2008 03:10
Location: Londonistan/Nukkad

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by Ardeshir »

A_Gupta wrote:Is this “Leila” a Netflix production?

Netflix is allegedly data-driven, if is their production it is because their data indicates that they have an audience for this. Scary!

If it is licensed, then depends on what else the deal includes.
Yes it's a Netflix India production.
pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14746
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by pankajs »

pankajs wrote:
hanumadu wrote:
How does it matter if the goal of congress is to keep out BJP? That is why I am surprised congress did not tie up with Kejriwal.
Delhi Assembly election is the target. GE 2019 was already lost to CON and they knew it! 7 seats in Delhi wouldn't make a difference in the final count.

I read it somewhere and the logic works for me.
Added Later: IF AAP-CON had a 4/3 or 5/2 alliance in Delhi and won in that ratio i.e AAP bagging more Delhi seats in GE 2019 than CON, it would be a display of their greater pull.

As it stands now, AAP stands demolished in terms of vote share. CON can expect more anti-Modi vote to shift to it in the Assembly elections that will happen within the next year.
pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14746
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by pankajs »

Indian Today (For BJP)

Himachal >> 4 out of 4
banrjeer
BRFite
Posts: 439
Joined: 21 Dec 2008 14:39

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by banrjeer »

wb 11 seats for BJP as per a recent poll

Spoke to some one they said jehadidi has put street lamps everywhere with blue and white colours. Some kind of branding of her sari colors.
Supratik
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6470
Joined: 09 Nov 2005 10:21
Location: USA

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by Supratik »

Australia just got all its opinion polls and exit polls wrong. So wait for May 23.
pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14746
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by pankajs »

Indian Today (For BJP)

Uttrakhand >> 5 out of 5
hanumadu
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5168
Joined: 11 Nov 2002 12:31

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by hanumadu »

Basically BJP Losing 2 here 5 there in its strong states and losing a big chunk in UP making up some what in Bengal, Orissa and North East.
pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14746
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by pankajs »

Indian Today (For BJP)

J&K >> 2-3 out of 6 (NC 2-3, CON 0-1)
Krita
BRFite
Posts: 202
Joined: 23 Jul 2009 13:33

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by Krita »

A_Gupta wrote:Is this “Leila” a Netflix production?

Netflix is allegedly data-driven, if is their production it is because their data indicates that they have an audience for this. Scary!

If it is licensed, then depends on what else the deal includes.
If scores of amateurish D rated films are data driven, then god save big data.
There is absolutely nothing worth watching in Netflix. At least Prime video can be justified that it comes free with Airtel.
Paying 600/month for watching crap makes no sense to me.
Locked