2019 General Elections News and Discussion

The Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to India's security environment, her strategic outlook on global affairs and as well as the effect of international relations in the Indian Subcontinent. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
Sachin
Webmaster BR
Posts: 8965
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Undisclosed

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by Sachin »

Sridhar K wrote:Chatter among some of the faithful by tying up some recent developments like Ambani withdrawal, CBi clean chit to SP, Satta bazzar prediction, NDA dinner invite, Nitish utterances is that BJP will get around 250 odd and will need to keep the NDA allies in fold to ensure 272 plus.
nachiket wrote:The NDA allies dinner has brought out the dhoti shiverer in me thinking it is all because Amit Shah is expecting a relatively poor showing and needs to keep the current allies close and also signal to potential allies like Jagan and Patnaik that BJP can be good for them.
Tend to agree with you. This over-joy over the exit polls looked all fine and dandy for the first few hours. But now looks like it may not really be the case. The main stream media in this case would only be too happy to say that their exit polls were incorrect, because their ultimate aim was to bring a "secular" government. I too feel BJP would be float around 250 and would have to take help from the allies. In a way the dinner invite was good; BJP themselves are not getting over confident and trying to dispense away with the allies.

The "secular" camp has certainly not given up, and they also have not taken the exit polls as God's words (which is good). And they have been trying all games in the book to make a come back. Yesterday's meeting with Election Commission was also a kind of bulleying tactic. My gut feeling is that if things are not going their preferred way; the "secular" riff-raffs are going to use every tactic, blaming EVMs, running away with VVPAT slips, bad mouthing EC and even giving court cases. They would make every attempt to delay the whole process, and given a chance even the swearing in of the next government.
Manish_Sharma
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5128
Joined: 07 Sep 2009 16:17

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by Manish_Sharma »

Karan M wrote:So the 7 decade long left-INC project to have Indians become a mix of deracinated wogs acting like brown sahibs, and be caught up in their nice little caste buckets is being sabotaged by the rise of a counter....
Few points Brihaspati ji used to make:

1. Next Dharmic-Rashtriya movement will start from Andhra-Tamil-Bengal as these have been first and longest to move away so intense pendulum swing to start from these 3 ...

2. UPA winning even 2014 and 2019 would make Dharmic-Nationalist movement even faster as Communal Violence Bill and Sadhvi Pragya and Col. Purohit type incidents will compound and that will awaken 'The Nationalist' in sleeping ones.

According to him BJP forming govt may fizzle out the Hindu jaagran phenomenon...

Although I am not able to understand the depth of it, always seems too scary for me with rahul ram rajan, NAC with harsh mandar, kavita krishnan & shabnam azmi types firing on all cylinders belching out dozens of Communal violence Bill's type in dozens.... :shock:

That's why they also want mamta to win another term so Pendulum movement for Hindus will be intense not half hearted.....

But RamaY ji had some wise counters too giving examples of Bengali leadership in last 250 years....

Unfortunately he is banned from here, bharatganrajya & Twitter too ... :cry:

His post on Modi breaching 7 layered fortification of BIF was awesome.... eye opening.
Last edited by Manish_Sharma on 22 May 2019 14:13, edited 1 time in total.
BhairavP
BRFite
Posts: 1437
Joined: 13 Jun 2005 13:34
Location: The Beepul's Repubric of SoBo

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by BhairavP »

sudhan wrote:Anil Ambani has withdrawn his defamation suit against Buddhu and Congoons..

Wonder whats up with that
Only against Priyanka Chaturvedi, since she is no longer with the Congress.
nachiket
Forum Moderator
Posts: 9102
Joined: 02 Dec 2008 10:49

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by nachiket »

BhairavP wrote:
sudhan wrote:Anil Ambani has withdrawn his defamation suit against Buddhu and Congoons..

Wonder whats up with that
Only against Priyanka Chaturvedi, since she is no longer with the Congress.
Kem chho Bhairav bhai, haven't seen you in a while.
BhairavP
BRFite
Posts: 1437
Joined: 13 Jun 2005 13:34
Location: The Beepul's Repubric of SoBo

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by BhairavP »

nachiket wrote:
BhairavP wrote:
Only against Priyanka Chaturvedi, since she is no longer with the Congress.
Kem chho Bhairav bhai, haven't seen you in a while.
Ekdum majaama :) . Been busy but good to catch up with BRF - been lurking the last 2 days.
Eagerly looking forward to the results tomorrow.. I really want Milind Deora to lose in my constituency.
nachiket
Forum Moderator
Posts: 9102
Joined: 02 Dec 2008 10:49

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by nachiket »

I'm eagerly watching Deora's seat as well. We need an NDA sweep in Mumbai.
Singha
BRF Oldie
Posts: 66601
Joined: 13 Aug 2004 19:42
Location: the grasshopper lies heavy

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by Singha »

my prediction - MGB and CBN are heading for a thrashing. hence the huge noises, threats and kabila mobilization.
kittoo
BRFite
Posts: 969
Joined: 08 Mar 2009 02:08

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by kittoo »

I know this is me being pessimistic second time here but i am seriously worried about tomorrow. The opposite side has not given up and this CBI thing, ambani dropping the case, nitish uvaach etc do have me worried. Hope we dont pull an Australia tomorrow.
nachiket
Forum Moderator
Posts: 9102
Joined: 02 Dec 2008 10:49

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by nachiket »

What did Nitish Kumar say exactly?
jaysimha
BRFite
Posts: 1696
Joined: 20 Dec 2017 14:30

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by jaysimha »

Election Commission
Control room at ECI
Posted On: 21 MAY 2019 8:44PM by PIB Delhi
A 24 hour EVM Control Room has been made functional at Nirvachan Sadan to monitor complaints relating to polled EVMs. The complaints related to storage issues at strongrooms, security of strongrooms, permissions to candidates to post their agents at strongrooms, cctv monitoring, movement of any EVMs, and any complaints during counting related to EVMs can be informed at control room number is 011-23052123 (with 5 hunting lines).
***
SBS
(Release ID: 1572351) Visitor Counter : 249
http://pib.nic.in/PressReleaseIframePag ... ID=1572351
Dilbu
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8272
Joined: 07 Nov 2007 22:53
Location: Deep in the badlands of BRFATA

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by Dilbu »

BJP will lose onlee :(( :(( :((
Shaktimaan
BRFite
Posts: 515
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by Shaktimaan »

I remember Singha saar's amazing posts depicting the election as a battle with Generals Modi and Shah leading the soldiers. He published it as a muti-part series around the 2014 LS elections.

Saar, yeh dil maange more...
sudhan
BRFite
Posts: 1157
Joined: 01 Jul 2009 17:53
Location: Timbuktoo..

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by sudhan »

nachiket wrote:What did Nitish Kumar say exactly?
I think he said something about special status for Bihar.. Not sure it amounts to a threat
Shaktimaan
BRFite
Posts: 515
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by Shaktimaan »

nachiket wrote:I'm eagerly watching Deora's seat as well. We need an NDA sweep in Mumbai.
Saar according to my taxiwalla and chaiwalla inputs from SoBo, Deora is heading for a narrow victory. We shall see.
sudhan
BRFite
Posts: 1157
Joined: 01 Jul 2009 17:53
Location: Timbuktoo..

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by sudhan »

BhairavP wrote:
sudhan wrote:Anil Ambani has withdrawn his defamation suit against Buddhu and Congoons..

Wonder whats up with that
Only against Priyanka Chaturvedi, since she is no longer with the Congress.
In that case, I am happy.. Chaturvedi has happily eaten crow soup and moved out of the Concroach system.. we could let her be..
nachiket
Forum Moderator
Posts: 9102
Joined: 02 Dec 2008 10:49

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by nachiket »

Shaktimaan wrote:
nachiket wrote:I'm eagerly watching Deora's seat as well. We need an NDA sweep in Mumbai.
Saar according to my taxiwalla and chaiwalla inputs from SoBo, Deora is heading for a narrow victory. We shall see.
That is my chaiwallah info as well unfortunately. BJP will lose onlee :(( :((
nachiket
Forum Moderator
Posts: 9102
Joined: 02 Dec 2008 10:49

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by nachiket »

sudhan wrote:
nachiket wrote:What did Nitish Kumar say exactly?
I think he said something about special status for Bihar.. Not sure it amounts to a threat
First AP and now Bihar. If everyone is given special status then no state will be special anymore. :lol:
Sridhar K
BRFite
Posts: 832
Joined: 12 Sep 2002 11:31

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by Sridhar K »

nachiket wrote:What did Nitish Kumar say exactly?
[url]httpss://twitter.com/ANI/status/1130746767740350465?s=19[/url]
Singha
BRF Oldie
Posts: 66601
Joined: 13 Aug 2004 19:42
Location: the grasshopper lies heavy

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by Singha »

nachiket wrote:What did Nitish Kumar say exactly?
just that sadhvi's godse statement is not acceptable.
when namo himself said he will not forgive her for it, is this worth shivering about it.
both JDU and SS supremos came to dinner last night.
SS supremo had returned from a trip and thought of sending his #2 saying why meet before may23, but AS personally phoned him in some other engagement and then he came with #2 and his own son.
nachiket
Forum Moderator
Posts: 9102
Joined: 02 Dec 2008 10:49

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by nachiket »

Singha wrote: SS supremo had returned from a trip and thought of sending his #2 saying why meet before may23, but AS personally phoned him in some other engagement and then he came with #2 and his own son.
This actually shows some urgency and perhaps uneasiness on AS's part that he really wanted to made sure SS and NK showed up instead of their representatives. Not a good sign. If he was fairly confident, this whole dinner could have been done after 23rd.

Yashwant Deshmukh said on one of the shows that his (CVoter) exit poll actually gives a higher vote share to BJP in UP than the India Today- Axis one. However what they found was that in the seats BJP was winning they were doing it by huge margins while the MGB was winning seats by a smaller one. This translated into less seats for the BJP than the MGB despite a higher vote share. Another reason to dhoti shiver IMHO. This whole thing still hinges on UP despite the expected gains in Odisha and WB.
Singha
BRF Oldie
Posts: 66601
Joined: 13 Aug 2004 19:42
Location: the grasshopper lies heavy

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by Singha »

SS has always been a problematic NDA member due to their supremos periodic tirades against AS and NM. its important to meet such satraps face to face to gauge intent.
Singha
BRF Oldie
Posts: 66601
Joined: 13 Aug 2004 19:42
Location: the grasshopper lies heavy

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by Singha »

nachiket wrote:
Singha wrote: SS supremo had returned from a trip and thought of sending his #2 saying why meet before may23, but AS personally phoned him in some other engagement and then he came with #2 and his own son.
This actually shows some urgency and perhaps uneasiness on AS's part that he really wanted to made sure SS and NK showed up instead of their representatives. Not a good sign. If he was fairly confident, this whole dinner could have been done after 23rd.

Yashwant Deshmukh said on one of the shows that his (CVoter) exit poll actually gives a higher vote share to BJP in UP than the India Today- Axis one. However what they found was that in the seats BJP was winning they were doing it by huge margins while the MGB was winning seats by a smaller one. This translated into less seats for the BJP than the MGB despite a higher vote share. Another reason to dhoti shiver IMHO. This whole thing still hinges on UP despite the expected gains in Odisha and WB.
his ABP-Cvoter is the only exit poll not giving a majority to the NDA. so tomorrow he will be either be hero or zero - atleast he made his stand clear just as PP/Chintamani did on other end.

The ABP-CVoter survey has predicted that the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) may fall short of the majority mark of 272 in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. The NDA is predicted to get 233 seats, while the UPA is predicted to settle for 167 seats. The BJP alone is expected to bag 203 seats, while the Congress alone is expected to bag 109.

Read more at: https://www.bloombergquint.com/politics ... ns-updates
Copyright © BloombergQuint
nachiket
Forum Moderator
Posts: 9102
Joined: 02 Dec 2008 10:49

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by nachiket »

Cvoter is actually giving the NDA a majority. ABP poll was with Nielsen who came up with the 267 figure. Quint has them confused.

Image
Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 15043
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by Suraj »

nachiket wrote:The NDA allies dinner has brought out the dhoti shiverer in me thinking it is all because Amit Shah is expecting a relatively poor showing and needs to keep the current allies close and also signal to potential allies like Jagan and Patnaik that BJP can be good for them.

NDA will lose onlee :(( :(( :((
The dinner is smart politics . If the BJP comfortably makes majority, the allies depend on dinner to seek continued favor within NDA. If the BJP needs allies to form government, the dinner serves to make agreements . Either way the BJP has some control over the alliance.

Not keeping the alliance together ahead of the result is misguided bravado . The allies would matter if for example they are needed to achieve 2/3rd majority even if the BJP otherwise has a parliamentary majority .
Manish_Sharma
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5128
Joined: 07 Sep 2009 16:17

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by Manish_Sharma »

I just saw yogendra yadav interview where he accepted that NDA forming govt is certainity , he said usually exit polls out of caution predict less for winning side. So according to him NDA will get around 310 to 330 and BJP 240 to 270 surely...

He said "I always keep what I want Separate from what is reality... and reality is that BJP'S forming next govt.
dipak
BRFite
Posts: 223
Joined: 31 Dec 2008 19:18

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by dipak »

pankajs wrote:The headline is clearly mischievous but to be expected from "The Hindu" and the authors. Still one can glean some useful data even from such notes.
.
.
https://www.thehindu.com/elections/lok- ... 199617.ece
North, South clearly divided over giving another chance to Modi
An important indicator of the popularity of an incumbent government is the intensity of the voters’ desire to give it a second chance. Across the Hindi heartland and States of the West, the desire to give the Modi-led BJP government a second chance is extremely high.Positive data for the future.
Going by the headline, what about the east and west of India ...? The author should also include these remaining two as well.
So, by the logic - north, east and west seems to bring back Modi which is 75% success rate.
Karthik S
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5380
Joined: 18 Sep 2009 12:12

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by Karthik S »

Manish_Sharma wrote:I just saw yogendra yadav interview where he accepted that NDA forming govt is certainity , he said usually exit polls out of caution predict less for winning side. So according to him NDA will get around 310 to 330 and BJP 240 to 270 surely...

He said "I always keep what I want Separate from what is reality... and reality is that BJP'S forming next govt.
BJP 240 is surely calling for trouble for NM as PM.
sudhan
BRFite
Posts: 1157
Joined: 01 Jul 2009 17:53
Location: Timbuktoo..

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by sudhan »

sudhan wrote:
BhairavP wrote:
Only against Priyanka Chaturvedi, since she is no longer with the Congress.
In that case, I am happy.. Chaturvedi has happily eaten crow soup and moved out of the Concroach system.. we could let her be..
TOI has published a fact check article.. and has confirmed that the lawsuit has been withdrawn against all parties..

That is disappointing
nachiket
Forum Moderator
Posts: 9102
Joined: 02 Dec 2008 10:49

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by nachiket »

Karthik S wrote:
BJP 240 is surely calling for trouble for NM as PM.
Why? 240 should be ok. NDA will cross 272 with BJP at 240. Single party getting 240 used to be a massive victory in India for a long time. It is only 2014 that changed our expectations. During NDA-1 BJP only had 182 seats by comparison. Congress had only 206 in 2009, and that was called a strong mandate.
hanumadu
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5168
Joined: 11 Nov 2002 12:31

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by hanumadu »

According to discussions on some news channel (Republic perhaps), all surveys try to error correct responses by posing questions that will bring out incongruity in responses if the voter is lying. I don't know what others follow, but ABP Neilsen asked them what party they voted in 2014 and if it was not BJP, they discounted the responses that voted BJP in 2019. Though there may be some merit in such a approach, it looks too simple to me.

Axis exit poll claims to have surveyed in all seats totalling 8 lakhs. That's 1400 per seat. Is it by itself a good sample size for around 10 lakh votes/seat and is enough to provide an accurate picture for the seat or do they still have to combine it with other seats with similar demographics and/or the entire state?
BhairavP
BRFite
Posts: 1437
Joined: 13 Jun 2005 13:34
Location: The Beepul's Repubric of SoBo

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by BhairavP »

nachiket wrote:
Shaktimaan wrote:
Saar according to my taxiwalla and chaiwalla inputs from SoBo, Deora is heading for a narrow victory. We shall see.
That is my chaiwallah info as well unfortunately. BJP will lose onlee :(( :((
SS actually. Not BJP, but your point stands.
I'm hearing the opposite from the constituency - large scale Gujju polarisation toward the SS (hold nose and vote for NaMo). Malabar Hill/Walkeshwar turnout was high (Gujju/Marwari bastion), while Mumbadevi and Colaba were lower (some peacefuls and ROLers also).
Let's see tomorrow.
Dilbu
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8272
Joined: 07 Nov 2007 22:53
Location: Deep in the badlands of BRFATA

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by Dilbu »

BJP will lose onlee :(( :(( :((
Karthik S
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5380
Joined: 18 Sep 2009 12:12

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by Karthik S »

nachiket wrote:
Karthik S wrote:
BJP 240 is surely calling for trouble for NM as PM.
Why? 240 should be ok. NDA will cross 272 with BJP at 240. Single party getting 240 used to be a massive victory in India for a long time. It is only 2014 that changed our expectations. During NDA-1 BJP only had 182 seats by comparison. Congress had only 206 in 2009, and that was called a strong mandate.
You missed the point, NDA can form govt., I am talking about NM. How many party chiefs in NDA would want NM to go?
Shaktimaan
BRFite
Posts: 515
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by Shaktimaan »

Manish_Sharma wrote:I just saw yogendra yadav interview where he accepted that NDA forming govt is certainity , he said usually exit polls out of caution predict less for winning side. So according to him NDA will get around 310 to 330 and BJP 240 to 270 surely...

He said "I always keep what I want Separate from what is reality... and reality is that BJP'S forming next govt.
Saar, Yogendra "Salim" Yadav predicted in November 2018 that the BJP is going to lose 100 seats from their 2014 tally.

https://theprint.in/opinion/hindi-heart ... in/147096/

It's clear that he doesn't know anything and has no real insight to offer. Best to ignore him.
Sachin
Webmaster BR
Posts: 8965
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Undisclosed

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by Sachin »

EC turns down oppn plea to count VVPAT slips first. So leads, I guess should be coming out faster.
anishns
BRFite
Posts: 1382
Joined: 16 Dec 2007 09:43
Location: being victim onlee...

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by anishns »

Pappu will be PM onlee :(( :(( :((
Suresh S
BRFite
Posts: 857
Joined: 25 Dec 2008 22:19

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by Suresh S »

Mein Narender Damodardas Modi ishwar Ke sapath leta Hun Ke ----. Goosebumps time.
KL Dubey
BRFite
Posts: 1756
Joined: 16 Dec 2016 22:34

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by KL Dubey »

Peregrine
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8441
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by Peregrine »

On TVs inPakistan: Whypeople don’t want PM Narendra Modi to return Yudhvir Rana – TNN

AMRITSAR: The outcome of the 2019 Lok Sabha polls on May 23 is being watched with great keenness in neighbouring Pakistan. The interest in Pakistan is not surprising given the cross-border tension between the two countries and that many people in that country have familial links in India.

Presumably panicked by the Indian Air Force’s surgical strikes on terror camps inside Pakistan, most Pakistani nationals are voicing in interviews on social media their reservations about the return of an NDA government led by Narendra Modi.

“He shouldn’t come to power, he carried out surgical attacks in Pakistan..., ” Shahi Alam, a Lahorite, told a Pakistan TV channel.

Another person, Aizaz, added, “I doubt Modi will come back with a majority. I am sure he will get a fractured mandate and that is good for Pakistan.”

Some months ago, Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan had said there may be a better chance of peace talks with India if Prime Minister Narendra Modi won the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

Riaz, a London-based Pakistan businessman, told TOI over the phone: “People living in Pakistan have different views from those of Pakistanis living abroad. We are of the view that Modi should come back to power in India. At least it will act as a deterrent to terrorist organisations operating from Pakistani soil and pressure the Pakistan government to eradicate terrorism from our motherland.”

Cheers Image
KL Dubey
BRFite
Posts: 1756
Joined: 16 Dec 2016 22:34

Re: 2019 General Elections News and Discussion

Post by KL Dubey »

Shaktimaan wrote:
Manish_Sharma wrote:I just saw yogendra yadav interview where he accepted that NDA forming govt is certainity , he said usually exit polls out of caution predict less for winning side. So according to him NDA will get around 310 to 330 and BJP 240 to 270 surely...

He said "I always keep what I want Separate from what is reality... and reality is that BJP'S forming next govt.
Saar, Yogendra "Salim" Yadav predicted in November 2018 that the BJP is going to lose 100 seats from their 2014 tally.

https://theprint.in/opinion/hindi-heart ... in/147096/

It's clear that he doesn't know anything and has no real insight to offer. Best to ignore him.
I am not a fan of Yogi Yadav by any means, but in Nov 2018 all pollsters were predicting the same thing...before the election season there is always a dull period. After that NaMo changed the game with Balakot, new DBT schemes etc. I watched the whole interview yesterday, and for the most part he sounded quite sensible and patient with the interviewer. Too bad he is far gone into the dark side.
Locked