2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

[darshan]

Hopefully GoI liberates cannabis to avoid falling behind on research, monetization, heritage, etc.

Study on cannabis chemical as a treatment for pancreatic cancer may have 'major impact,' Harvard researcher says
https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/study-o ... 16708.html

[pankajs]

Embedded Video.

https://twitter.com/PiyushSingh83/statu ... 7124043776

Piyush Singh @PiyushSingh83

@adhirrcinc got exactly what he deserved. People shouted go back to Pakistan & shown black flags in his own constituency.

If you would have supported #370Abrogation you would not have to face embarrassment in your own constituency

Modi set the trap and some just couldn't avoid it given their loyalties. Smart one avoided the trap while still criticizing the "process".

[pankajs]

Breaking: ED has just issued a lookout notice for Chidu.

It can't get more embarrassing than this.

[jaysimha]

Chidu praising MVM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R0b3yfBR0aM



and later praising Modiji for his ID speech

I was wondering all along how is this possible??

[kittoo]

ANI
@ANI
Justice D Chandrachud,on #PehluKhan case: I tell you this is one of the great torments of being a judge because you've to decide on basis of evidence,as it stands&then you find that police investigation has been so woefully inadequate that it's going to result in acquittal.(17.

Chadrachud is going to be CJI post Justice Gogoi. That will create problems for pro-India forces.

[V_Raman]

What is this affliction with India appointing people who studied overseas for critical positions in the government?

[pankajs]

Fast and furious ...

https://twitter.com/raghavohri0/status/ ... 0931267584

Raghav Ohri @raghavohri0

Now, CBI books Prannoy Roy, Radhika Roy & Vikramaditya Chandra, NDTV & unknown public servants on charges of criminal conspiracy, cheating and criminal misconduct

[pankajs]

CON party has come out in full support of Chidu with Pappu and Pappini tweeting in support. It can only mean one thing. Chidu has threatened to drag then in if they don't stand by him in his hour of need.

Theek hai.

[Prasad]

The Wire
@thewire_in
· Aug 19
"The war against the constitution, Muslim and Christian minorities, and dissenters in @narendramodi’s first tenure was still covert guerrilla action.
Today, with home minister @AmitShah by his side, the civil war is out in the open." | @harsh_mander

Ravinar
@RavinarIN

This @harsh_mander's Children's home was involved in a sexual racket or sexual assaults on kids... Why has he still not been arrested?....
@AmitShah


Ravinar
@RavinarIN

This @Harsh_Mander is a Christian.... Like many "Camouflaged" Christians... he too parades himself with a Hindu/Sikh name...


विनोद शर्मा
@vinod_sharma

If I remember correctly, as member of NAC, he was deputed by Sonia to lead the media campaign to support the draconian anti-Hindu Communal Violence Bill that she had approved in unholy haste. Even then he hissed like a poisonous snake. Aurangzeb-level hatred for Kafirs..

@vinod_sharma
Replying to
@RavinarIN

@harsh_mander
and 3 others
Yes, if I am not wrong, he runs a few NGOs funded by foreign Christian outfits, No wonder he enjoyed complete trust of the Italian.

Just read all the tweets on him here - link
You'll get your answer.

[chetak]

twitter

*When Chidambaram used to ask how did Vijay Mallya,Nirav Modi, Mehul Choksi run away from country, people thought he was questioning the govt.*

*Now people realise he was asking the route*

From Whatsapp

[pankajs]

https://twitter.com/AdityaRajKaul/statu ... 6260744194

Aditya Raj Kaul @AdityaRajKaul

#BREAKING: Supreme Court of India refuses to give interim relief to former Finance Minister Chidambaram from arrest. SC won’t intervene till matter gets listed formally. Chidambaram continues to run away from CBI/ED to escape arrest.

https://twitter.com/TimesNow/status/1164098727952310272

TIMES NOW @TimesNow

#Breaking | No hearing today on the Anticipatory Bail plea of @PChidambaram_IN. Supreme Court denies urgent hearing of the bail plea.

Rahul Shivshankar with details. | #ChidambaramWanted

[chetak]

self explanatory

twitter

[Pratyush]

The optics of an absconding PC is bad for Congress. But no one in Congress is able to figure it out.

They are still fighting for his anticipatory bail. When they will be well served with his arrest and subsequent bail.

[Sachin]

The optics of an absconding PC is bad for Congress. ....
When they will be well served with his arrest and subsequent bail.

I think an ex-Central Home Minister actually running around the country evading arrest is a "first time event" in India. May be the BJP too will allow him to run around a bit as that kind of permenantly give him a title of "absconder ex-HM of India" .

[chetak]

The optics of an absconding PC is bad for Congress. But no one in Congress is able to figure it out.

They are still fighting for his anticipatory bail. When they will be well served with his arrest and subsequent bail.

even at this advanced age PC wants to maintain the facade of "legal" virginity and hence his projected invincibility.

[chetak]

The optics of an absconding PC is bad for Congress. ....
When they will be well served with his arrest and subsequent bail.

I think an ex-Central Home Minister actually running around the country evading arrest is a "first time event" in India. May be the BJP too will allow him to run around a bit as that kind of permenantly give him a title of "absconder ex-HM of India" .

It is definitely to the BJP's benefit to have PC skulking around in the shadows with almost every news channel baying for his blood and lookout notice being issued


the govt is setting up an elaborate stage for the forthcoming theatricals starring all the stalwarts of the congi party.

FIR has been registered against NDTV's pronoy roy and his wife and vikram chandra, tarun tejpal is in the same boat and soon the congi family too will see the inside of the courts. kamal nath's goose is all but cooked and there are many congis in the pipeline waiting to be halaled

BTW, isn't one of these guys a card carrying member of the brf jirga

[pankajs]

CON party has come out in full support of Chidu with Pappu and Pappini tweeting in support. It can only mean one thing. Chidu has threatened to drag then in if they don't stand by him in his hour of need.

Theek hai.

https://twitter.com/MinhazMerchant/stat ... 9658749952

Minhaz Merchant @MinhazMerchant

If PC is in fact arrested, it will open up a can of worms for the Congress ecosystem. PC has links with TV channels, print journalists, corporates... the list is endless #INXMediaCase

[pankajs]

The optics of an absconding PC is bad for Congress. ....
When they will be well served with his arrest and subsequent bail.

I think an ex-Central Home Minister actually running around the country evading arrest is a "first time event" in India. May be the BJP too will allow him to run around a bit as that kind of permenantly give him a title of "absconder ex-HM of India" .

Yup ... yesterdin some one was speculating on SM that GOI was toying with Chiddu ... letting his play hide and seek. If they really wanted they would have him in custody within 30 minutes.

Let me add, this is Mod/Shah's way of spreading FUD and there is no harm in that. This is hitting at the root of the CON pyramid with only the First family beyond. Imagine what must be going through the minds of all who have dealt or colluded with Chiddu to cheat India. The duo hope to shake the CON-system hoping to force other to make false moves in panic and implicate themselves. It might even make a few reach out to the duo to save their own skin in trade for more clinching information about the rest.

I was hoping that the 1st 6 months of the 2nd Modi term would produce action on the Con-system and it is being realized now.

[pankajs]

No hearing on Chiddu's bail plea today and the earliest window is Friday. We will have another 2 days of drama on the TV.

[ArjunPandit]

you would know roosters are coming home when ahmed patel is touched..i have a hunch that if sonia gandhi fights from rai bareli..she will be defeated there..

[pankajs]

https://twitter.com/kdrajagopal/status/ ... 1540180993

Krishnadas Rajagopal @kdrajagopal

Kapil Sibal and his team present before CJI-led Constitution Bench at 4 pm when the Ayodhya Bench was rising for the day, expected CJI to enquire why they were there before leaving the court room. But the CJI left without a word at them @the_hindu

@abaruah64

Read the tweet carefully ... As Khujaliwal is phamous for saying "Saab mila hua hain ji"

[Vips]

Subramaniam Swamy has said in a news channel interview (an AV on Youtube) that Karthi Chidambaram had in addition to Money asked for two heroines to get the INX Media proposal at FIPB approved.

[pankajs]

More proof ... Saab mila hau hain je

https://twitter.com/avarakai/status/1164123500409311237

Sniper @avarakai

Madras HC says, no stay for investigation by "Special Court for MLAs & MPs" into Karti's income tax evasion case.

Btw, Kashmir has disappeared from the TV screens. Lolwa

[vijayk]

I said we need a distraction from JK
.next is Sonia and pappu

[vijayk]

https://m.timesofindia.com/city/bengalu ... 744506.cms

The defence ministry has filed a complaint against the Church of South India (CSI), parent body of All Saints Church, for allegedly claiming to be the owner of a defence land strip and foregoing its ownership claims over the same in return for a payment of Rs 60 crore from Bangalore Metro Rail Corporation Limited (BMRCL) and Karnataka Industrial Areas Development Board (KIADB).

[Karan M]

I am still waiting to see what are we doing for the economy. Things are pretty bad on the SME front. Many firms have shut down. The auto sector, textile sector have laid of tens of thousands of folks per reports, and the effects downstream (suppliers, vendors) will be even worse and undocumented. I know several guys who are living off of their savings - pretty bad in the pharma sector for instance. One guy I know is raging with frustration, he and a dozen odd colleagues have been out of jobs for around a year now. This is the next front the leftists will exploit to cause widespread dissatisfaction and civil disobedience.

[vijayk]

I am still waiting to see what are we doing for the economy. Things are pretty bad on the SME front. Many firms have shut down. The auto sector, textile sector have laid of tens of thousands of folks per reports, and the effects downstream (suppliers, vendors) will be even worse and undocumented. I know several guys who are living off of their savings - pretty bad in the pharma sector for instance. One guy I know is raging with frustration, he and a dozen odd colleagues have been out of jobs for around a year now. This is the next front the leftists will exploit to cause widespread dissatisfaction and civil disobedience.

Agree..

[Jay]

I am still waiting to see what are we doing for the economy. Things are pretty bad on the SME front. Many firms have shut down. The auto sector, textile sector have laid of tens of thousands of folks per reports, and the effects downstream (suppliers, vendors) will be even worse and undocumented. I know several guys who are living off of their savings - pretty bad in the pharma sector for instance. One guy I know is raging with frustration, he and a dozen odd colleagues have been out of jobs for around a year now. This is the next front the leftists will exploit to cause widespread dissatisfaction and civil disobedience.

If Modi sarkar loses on the economic front it truly would be a case of shooting oneself in the foot. The more I'm learning about our economy the more I'm losing trust in this government doing something positive in that area. It's been 6 years now. Maybe, I'm being a little harsh, but we cannot take back India to the years on "Hindu rate of growth". That would be a letdown of monumental proportions.

[pankajs]

Chindu is back!

[Suraj]

I am still waiting to see what are we doing for the economy. Things are pretty bad on the SME front. Many firms have shut down. The auto sector, textile sector have laid of tens of thousands of folks per reports, and the effects downstream (suppliers, vendors) will be even worse and undocumented. I know several guys who are living off of their savings - pretty bad in the pharma sector for instance. One guy I know is raging with frustration, he and a dozen odd colleagues have been out of jobs for around a year now. This is the next front the leftists will exploit to cause widespread dissatisfaction and civil disobedience.

Let me insert a comment on this. There are two aspects to this topic:
* what's ACTUALLY being done
* what's showing on the media optics
The question one needs to consider is, what do I care about more ? Of course the simple response is 'they both matter'. But in reality, the media is never going to be supportive of actual actions taking place - and which take time to gain traction. They'll always be focused on the optics of the here and now.

If you want the former, we have a good thread in TEF for that. For the latter, well that's up in the air. The point I'm making here is that what's actually happening, and the optics of what's being said about it, are two different things.

There are real issues and real efforts in progress with regard to the actual problem. There are several recent posts in the economics thread on this. The optics are a different thing. It's clear there's an effort to push the optics for political reasons, that makes it hard to look at the real issues and actions. But we do keep track of what's going on.

[vsunder]

^^^^ Karan M and Suraj, here is a round up and analysis of recent decisions of Modi 2.0 related to the economic front by Sucheta Dalal.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kSKT_JrBfio

These things have been so pervasive that the system will need quite some time to be cleaned up. Corporate India is a mess and the stories they are planting contribute to the negative optics. The days of crony capitalism hopefully are over.

[pankajs]

Chidu Arrested by CBI.

[disha]

I am surprised that economics is discussed in strategic/political thread. Should it not be in economics thread?

Also VSunder'ji, Sucheta Dalal is a tainted journo. She is SoBo elite and is in the same circles as the other eminent economist, historian and civil society leader Shobha De.

Just like the lutyens media never stepped out of KhanMarket for their political analysis and got surprised and more surprised, so does the SoBo does not step out of Dalal Street. And they misread the strength of the Indian economy. None of them step into hinterlands.

To get hinterland news, follow down to earth fiscal conservatives like Ashu Muglikar https://twitter.com/muglikar_?lang=en. They have pulse on what is going on.

---

I am discounting all the rona-dhona around economy in India. Indian economy is going through substantive shifts. There will be some losers, but the substantive gainers are not in areas like SoBo or KhanMarket or Rajajis or residents of Poes gardens.

[dinesh_kimar]

^ Chidu's arrest was masterfully done.

Full marks to an astute and brilliant political genius.

I think first term was to understand the rules of the game, and now is to reap the harvest.

However, economy could have been handled differently, without GST of high 18%, as well as creating liquidity crisis by going after banks and financial institutions.

Timely warnings, arrest of few big fish and slower structural reforms would have benefited more.

Captains of the auto industry name GST and lack of financial loans from lending institutions as reasons for slowdown, rather than lack of demand.

They are not very happy with all electric vehicles by 2030, and forced roll out of BS-VI either, bypassing BS-V.

For eg, the US , a bigger and more mature market, doesn't believe in an electric future for next 20 years atleast.

It has only 1600 charging stations , and Tesla's total production after a decade of operations is only 150,000, media hype notwithstanding.

This is less than GM/Ford's weekly numbers.

[sudeepj]

I said we need a distraction from JK
.next is Sonia and pappu

Sonia and Pappu not so soon, IMO. Better to leave incompetent generals at the head, while lopping off lose ends. PC had 0 mass base that could have caused any issues. He is self evidently corrupt. His only 'importance' to the system was that he was managing a lot of connections in the interconnected Lutyens web. Now the web has lost its importance. So he is disposable.

Who will be next.. ? Vadra will go long before Sonia or Pappu. Sonia is in the twilight of her life anyway.. So no point making a martyr out of her. May be RRPRs time is also up.

[Suraj]

However, economy could have been handled differently, without GST of high 18%, as well as creating liquidity crisis by going after banks and financial institutions.

This is one of the mistakes of trying to discuss politics here. The example above itself shows it. The 18% GST rate wasn't a bad thing. People make the mistake of thinking the original rates were set based on what people would fine reasonable .

However, it wasn't. The first set of rates were set based on what the states wanted. The first beneficiaries were always meant to be the states, whose primary agenda was revenue neutrality, and a guaranteed revenue growth rate in the first few years of GST - both of which they got.

This was the trade off for actually getting everyone on board with GST, after 20 years of negotiations. The public at large were always the secondary consideration here, which is a reasonable initial process because this is an indirect and not a direct tax regime.

The later tweaks followed because the states realized the people don't agree with the rates that were agreed-by-committee at the GST council, and thus a process of finetuning followed.

To argue that the GST was set up improperly, is to put the cart before the horse . What the people wanted wasn't the original intent - the original intent was to get the states to sit down and agree. The subsequent process was for the states to realize and accommodate what their public wanted. This is the natural process of political economy.

[sumsumne]

^
They are not very happy with all electric vehicles by 2030, and forced roll out of BS-VI either, bypassing BS-V.

Any change will make incumbents insecure; they must realize that they have the opportunity to participate in the electric market as well...

^ For eg, the US , a bigger and more mature market, doesn't believe in an electric future for next 20 years atleast.

a bigger and more mature market and may I say a oil industry influenced market. Look at Europe...they are adapting much faster.

^ It has only 1600 charging stations , and Tesla's total production after a decade of operations is only 150,000, media hype notwithstanding.

1600 "public" charging stations....majority of Tesla and other electric car owners charge their vehicles at home.

Not that I am challenging the OP's viewpoint....but the winds of change are in the horizon.

[disha]

It has only 1600 charging stations , and Tesla's total production after a decade of operations is only 150,000, media hype notwithstanding.

That is more than enough to go coast to coast and north to south very comfortably.

At 150k EV, it dents 75 million gallons of gas annually or $275 million. Even if that continues for say 10 years from now it will dent the gas industry by 2.75 Billion USD annually

[Karan M]

I am actually concerned about one. What's actually being done, the media bias is so obvious to us on BR. I scanned the eco thread but lot of, but not much on what's actually needed vs what's being done. Perhaps you can lead the discussion on what needs to be done. That would be helpful.

About which industries - structural vs cyclical:
As far as things on the ground go, the buzz is not positive but there's a catch. These things take time to bubble up. The general perception from some guys (whom I can call contra thinkers) is if things have become bad enough to be visible, chances are that we are midway through the crisis. But even they are awaiting some concrete steps from the GOI in this regard. Concern is the big name sectors "auto, textile" etc are crowding out the GOI's attention (which has not been adequately focused) and hence non core SMEs are still hurting. But this is not the whole thing either, because GOI obviously has to look at the employment generators. Auto is a huge chunk of our manufacturing industry, facing a bunch of structural (not cyclical IMO) headwinds, so no easy answers?! Orange if he's back for round 2, might end up hurting services industry too, and if theres a global downturn, we get hit 2x.

About liquidity crunch & NPA:
Now the point made by our IIMB Prof V was that while the bulk of the bad debt belongs to large enterprises, they are only around a fifth of the GDP, so the slowdown could have been in part precipitated by the need to clean up tottering edifices like IL&FS and of course, the IBC now fixes things. But the cool-down effect downstream on the rest of the SMEs who supply to the larger guys is causing an issue.

About GOI & what needs to be done vs what can be done:
I read Goyals plans, the recent comments by Sitharaman and the recent comments by Modi (he has a good article in ET on his plans but doesn't get into details about when/timeframe) but there seems to be a funds crunch. In 2 more sectors I track, MII is still not showing a proper uptick because of lack of orders placed, again seems to be a fund crunch. My question hence is this - do we have the leeway to expand our debt to GDP (as is being discussed in the eco thread) and kick off GOI spending. There have been some studies/presentations done by folks associated w/ GOI about public spending correlation with private capex (its apparently positive), I shot emails off asking for copies but they are yet to be presented to GOI, hence unlikely they are driving decisions. Reason I am asking about GOI spending leeway is because theres been a lot of concern expressed about GOI dipping into RBI funds, a lot of off the GOI books debt building up in PSUs (CAG says debt to GDP is really 6%). Now, if his Highness and Excellency, the Orange, kicks off 2008 redux using his trade wars, how well are we placed to weather that, and still continue with our welfare programs + GOI led capex investment? These are complex questions for sure, so it would be great if you could pen down your thoughts.

I am still waiting to see what are we doing for the economy. Things are pretty bad on the SME front. Many firms have shut down. The auto sector, textile sector have laid of tens of thousands of folks per reports, and the effects downstream (suppliers, vendors) will be even worse and undocumented. I know several guys who are living off of their savings - pretty bad in the pharma sector for instance. One guy I know is raging with frustration, he and a dozen odd colleagues have been out of jobs for around a year now. This is the next front the leftists will exploit to cause widespread dissatisfaction and civil disobedience.

Let me insert a comment on this. There are two aspects to this topic:
* what's ACTUALLY being done
* what's showing on the media optics
The question one needs to consider is, what do I care about more ? Of course the simple response is 'they both matter'. But in reality, the media is never going to be supportive of actual actions taking place - and which take time to gain traction. They'll always be focused on the optics of the here and now.

If you want the former, we have a good thread in TEF for that. For the latter, well that's up in the air. The point I'm making here is that what's actually happening, and the optics of what's being said about it, are two different things.

There are real issues and real efforts in progress with regard to the actual problem. There are several recent posts in the economics thread on this. The optics are a different thing. It's clear there's an effort to push the optics for political reasons, that makes it hard to look at the real issues and actions. But we do keep track of what's going on.

[Karan M]

VSunder - yes that's the video I saw. I was (pleasantly) surprised. SD was a big critic of the GOI (p-sec behavior too) so it has extra credibility, given her ideological tendency to bat against current GOI.

The corporate India mess part is so true. I trust you have been tracking the IL&FS type stuff? Another problem, for all of us invested in the Indian economy. GOI has finally woken up though and is imposing some order via SEBI etc but a massive clean up and more rigor at the rating issues is long overdue. More can be expected (though I hope not) because with tight liquidity, more such issues will emerge.

Qn is how can the clean up proceed without causing a full blown slowdown.

^^^^ Karan M and Suraj, here is a round up and analysis of recent decisions of Modi 2.0 related to the economic front by Sucheta Dalal.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kSKT_JrBfio

These things have been so pervasive that the system will need quite some time to be cleaned up. Corporate India is a mess and the stories they are planting contribute to the negative optics. The days of crony capitalism hopefully are over.