VayuSena Rafale: News and Discussions - 17 Oct 2016

[JayS]

^^^The French are reportedly offering less than 6 billion Euros for the second batch of 36, with an increased delivery schedule of 1 per month for the next 6 years.

If we take identical package for "36 Rafales + Weapons + Spares + PBL", while previous deal was coming around 5B euro for it, for this one, similar price should be a good deal I feel. The RnD cost will be getting amortized over larger order, so the fixed component charged per Rafale should come down. And economy of scale should be able to beat the low European inflation easily. IMO max 5.1-5.2B euro max we should pay.

[Cybaru]

I agree another order of 36-60 is max of what we need. They need to get Kaveri to fly before this order is given though.

[Rakesh]

Agree JayS and Cybaru.

The first batch of 36 Rafales (with base infrastructure, weapons, ISE, etc, etc, etc) cost €7.87 billion. That figure is from the ET article that I posted. That works out to roughly ~€219 million per Rafale. Now using the ET's own cost figure (less that €6 billion, but for argument's sake I will go with €6 billion onlee) for the second batch of 36 Rafale aircraft, it will work out to ~€167 million per Rafale or €52 million cheaper per plane. If the IAF can get more than 36 Rafale aircraft for that price, it will be even better. If the IAF is going to stop at four squadrons, I hope the GOI accounts for attrition reserves + TACDE.

44 more Rafales for a total of 80 aircraft (36 from first batch + 44 more, in four squadrons of 20 aircraft each) + 6 more for TACDE. So basically a round figure of 50 aircraft as a second batch.

[Vips]

^^^The French are reportedly offering less than 6 billion Euros for the second batch of 36, with an increased delivery schedule of 1 per month for the next 6 years.

That has to include more than just the jets. Anyway, the price will only be known if this actually transpires and the offered deal cost is made public.

One way for France to get this additional order is to gives some Mirage 2000's to sweeten the deal.

[kit]

That has to include more than just the jets. Anyway, the price will only be known if this actually transpires and the offered deal cost is made public.

One way for France to get this additional order is to gives some Mirage 2000's to sweeten the deal.

would be interesting to find out whether France has a few 2000s in a boneyard storage somewhere

[nachiket]

NM is visiting France today, fingers crossed over possible additional Rafales.

If they are making the offer now, there won't be any decisions taken at this meeting from our side. The proposal will be studied by MoD and IAF and then the bean-counters in MoF after which there will be protracted negotiations, chai-biskoot sessions, maybe a trip to France for assorted bureaucrats, for additional negotiations, CAG raising questions about the procurement, MoF and MoD playing ping-pong with the proposal, chaos in Parliament over a new Rafale scam, etc. We should be good to go by around 2025 I think. By which time, the original proposal will be no longer valid and the monetary value of the deal will have to be amended and the proposal re-evaluated.

[Rakesh]

And Mera Bharat Mahan!

[Cain Marko]

Agree JayS and Cybaru...

Heh. You wish. I'll be happy with 36 more.

[Cain Marko]

NM is visiting France today, fingers crossed over possible additional Rafales.

Lightning strike twice in same place? Unlikely Saar.

[Jay]

Agree JayS and Cybaru...

Heh. You wish. I'll be happy with 36 more.

I hope not. Any more monies that go to this plane is less for our desi stuff. I rather stay at 36 and invest the amount in MWF to shore up the numbers and increase out indigenous capabilities.

[Cain Marko]

Heh. You wish. I'll be happy with 36 more.

I hope not. Any more monies that go to this plane is less for our desi stuff. I rather stay at 36 and invest the amount in MWF to shore up the numbers and increase out indigenous capabilities.

If you said mk1 or even mk1A, that would make more sense. But the MWF is still far away no? By the time it goes into production all the rafales should be delivered.

[Jay]

I hope not. Any more monies that go to this plane is less for our desi stuff. I rather stay at 36 and invest the amount in MWF to shore up the numbers and increase out indigenous capabilities.

If you said mk1 or even mk1A, that would make more sense. But the MWF is still far away no? By the time it goes into production all the rafales should be delivered.

Cain ji, yes mk1a would be and I have no issues. With MWF, I was trying to point out that even its development may suffer without proper funding and we are back to the same argument of what videshi plane to buy in 20 years.

[Kartik]

So, finally we see a press article picking up on the rumor about the 200 Rafale jets for IAF and IN. Pure speculation still, but this isn't just a Twitter post by some unknown non-journo anymore.

If true, its tata bye-bye to the FGFA. This may well be plausible if the IAF replaces the FGFA with the Rafale in its plans. the costs for the FGFA were also being given in the $30 billion range for around 144 fighters. Now, if this is what is being negotiated, then the IAF may get close to the same numbers (114+36) of Rafale fighters and the IN gets its 57 Rafale M.

FGFA was supposed to cost $30 billion or so for 144 units.

Russia announced in late 2015 that it would only induct a squadron (18-24 aircraft) of PAK FA fighter aircraft, and procure additional Sukhoi Su-35 aircraft instead. The original deal involved Russia procuring 250 and India 144 aircraft at a cost of around $30 billion by 2022.

France may offer 36 more Rafale to India but much bigger deal rumored

NEW DELHI --- France is likely to offer additional Rafale aircraft to India during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s upcoming visit to the European country for the G-7 Summit on Thursday, sources told ET.

The French side, sources said, is set to offer an immediate sale of two more squadrons, which means 36 additional Rafale jets, to the Indian Air Force that has been grappling with depleting combat force levels.

....


(EDITOR’S NOTE: Rumors from India claim that France and India are finalizing a much bigger deal, worth over 30 billion euros and covering up to 200 additional Rafales, which could be announced as early as this week, during Modi’s visit to France this week.

Dassault Aviation declined to comment, and these rumors have not been confirmed. However, we are reporting them because the details are very plausible, and lend a degree of credibility.

The rumored deal would cover 114 Rafales for the Indian Air Force, another 57 for the Indian Navy and possibly 30-40 more to ultimately replace the Indian Air Force’s fleet of upgraded Mirage 2000s.

India has already launched two RFPs, for the Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft and Navy carrier fighter requirements, but neither seems to have made much progress. However, both could be met by Rafale, which exists in both land- and carrier-based versions.

The structure of this rumored deal would substantially differ from earlier plans, which called for Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd. (HAL), the Indian state-owned aircraft manufacturer, to assemble 108 Rafales that Dassault was required to guarantee. As the company refused to guarantee HAL’s work, that deal collapsed.

This time, if the rumors are to be believed, the deal would be a government-to-government agreement, and Dassault would establish a final assembly line (FAL) of its own in India by 2024.

This FAL would be operated by a new company (Dassault Aviation India Ltd.) in which the Government of India would control a 50% stake, with no role for HAL.

Deliveries of the additional Rafales would begin in 2022 and be completed 12-13 years later. All of the new aircraft would be to the latest F4 standard, which Dassault is developing under a €1 billion contract, and earlier aircraft would also be upgraded.

Dassault is said to have committed to increase local sourcing up to 75% of the aircraft’s value, beginning with the 150th aircraft.

Such a huge deal – it would probably be the biggest-ever fighter purchase by a single country – would make operational and financial sense for India, allowing it to reduce its fighter fleet to just two major types, Rafale and Su-30MKI, with proportionately big savings in training, logistics and weapons.

It remains to be seen what develops this week during Modi’s visit.

For the time being, however, these are only rumors, albeit plausible ones, and this report is highly speculative.)

[Cain Marko]

If you said mk1 or even mk1A, that would make more sense. But the MWF is still far away no? By the time it goes into production all the rafales should be delivered.

Cain ji, yes mk1a would be and I have no issues. With MWF, I was trying to point out that even its development may suffer without proper funding and we are back to the same argument of what videshi plane to buy in 20 years.

Sir, they're talking about 200 of the French pretties, let alone 36 although I seriously don't that.

Point is that there will have to be some quick near term purchases considering the shrinking size of the force. My issue is that there should have been at least another order of 40+ foc standard Tejas. But instead there is talk of additional mki and now 200 rafale. I could understand maybe a few fulcrum and additional mki for the Hal line and a quick shot in the arm. But am truly disappointed with no additional orders for the mk1.

[Jay]

Cain ji, yes mk1a would be and I have no issues. With MWF, I was trying to point out that even its development may suffer without proper funding and we are back to the same argument of what videshi plane to buy in 20 years.

Sir, they're talking about 200 of the French pretties, let alone 36 although I seriously don't that.

Point is that there will have to be some quick near term purchases considering the shrinking size of the force. My issue is that there should have been at least another order of 40+ foc standard Tejas. But instead there is talk of additional mki and now 200 rafale. I could understand maybe a few fulcrum and additional mki for the Hal line and a quick shot in the arm. But am truly disappointed with no additional orders for the mk1.

Remember someone from pados said "they will eat grass for atum bum"? If this 200 number materializes, our entire aviation mil-ind complex will have no choice but to eat grass for the next however many years.

[Sumeet]

At every occasion when someone higher up from France visits India or vice versa this news always comes up.

There is no point in buying another 36 since that order will directly come from Dassault and will not benefit indigenous industry.

If IAF wants more Rafales (which I think we definitely should get) let there be an order for 72-90 at F4 standard with India Specific enhancements manufactured in India boosting local industry. Rafale F4 represents cutting edge technology (something we ourselves won't be able to achieve for another 10 years). Plus Rafale F4 will keep doors open for technology in flow from next generation FCAS programme.

It will help IAF accumulate first hand experience with premium grade military technology available in the world and build 21st century warfare doctrines/strategies (Advance Sensor Suite, Data Fusion, NCW, LR BVR AAM, LR Stand Off Missiles). This will help in development of future variants of LCA and AMCA platform. Bulk (at least 60-70%) of our airforce in next two decades should be comprised of various variants of LCA, AMCA and heavily MLUed MKI to 4.5+ gen standards.

[LakshmanPST]

One way for France to get this additional order is to gives some Mirage 2000's to sweeten the deal.

would be interesting to find out whether France has a few 2000s in a boneyard storage somewhere

One more rumour is actually doing rounds in one or two YouTube Defence news channels since last 2-3 days...
Apparently, France will be offering 40 M2ks to India during this visit... India may or may not accept it depending on the cost for upgrading it to 'I' standard...
But I guess this is as true as "200 Rafales from DIAL" news...

[Karthik S]

Many of you are saying buying more means less money for our own MIC, true, but we lack certain tech, which we can get from France as a quid pro quo for additional jets. 36 is too low a number for what is to be our F-15E version of long range strike aircraft, MKI does fit that role but it's primarily an air dominance jet.

[LakshmanPST]

Heh. You wish. I'll be happy with 36 more.

I hope not. Any more monies that go to this plane is less for our desi stuff. I rather stay at 36 and invest the amount in MWF to shore up the numbers and increase out indigenous capabilities.

IAF is buying Rafales mainly to maintain Technological edge over PLAAF... As per Dhanoa Ji's comments, Rafale is on par with J20 and maybe superior in some aspects (except for Stealth)...

While I'm all for Desi stuff, when we do not have a technologically superior desi option, we should go for shopping outside...
-
And 36 Rafales is a small no. given our fleet size... 2-3 more squadrons are definitely required...

[Cain Marko]

Many of you are saying buying more means less money for our own MIC, true, but we lack certain tech, which we can get from France as a quid pro quo for additional jets. 36 is too low a number for what is to be our F-15E version of long range strike aircraft, MKI does fit that role but it's primarily an air dominance jet.

There is no reason why an MKI cannot be made into a better bomb truck. The f15 also was primarily an air superiority fighter to begin with.

A cross between a Su35 and a Su35 should be the aim. The primary requirement will be a more powerful anyone which is likely in any case with the 117s. Hardening of hps and multiple carrier racks along with more internal fuel and efts will complete the external part. Much of this has already been achieved in the 35, both the newer and original Terminator version.

The internals is where an aesa, maws, decoys etc will be next. Very doable and pound for pound will carry around 10+ tons of external loads.

[chetak]

should we then ready ourselves for another pappu pissing contest on corruption.

France Likely To Offer India 36 More Rafale Jets During PM Modi’s Upcoming Visit, Price To Be Less Than First Deal

by Swarajya Staff - Aug 22 2019

France is likely to offer 36 more Rafale aircraft to India during Prime Minister (PM) Narendra Modi’s visit to the nation for the G-7 summit, Economic Times reports.

PM Modi will be meeting the French President Emmanuel Macron during the visit and the French side is likely to put on offer an immediate sale of 36 more Rafale fighters. The cost for the additional jets is also slated to be lesser than the original deal as costs for India specific enhancements and equipment has already been covered.

The IAF is grappling with a shortage of airplanes with the current squadron strength standing at just 30, far less than the 42 it requires to cover a two-front war with China and Pakistan as per its estimates. The deal, if it materialises, will bring in two more squadrons of the jets in addition to the two already under induction.

Earlier in September 2016, India had signed an inter-governmental pact with France for procurement of 36 Rafale fighter jets at a cost of around Rs 58,000 crore. The first of the French fighter jets will be received by India on 20 September as per reports.

The IAF has already completed the preparations to induct the fighter aircraft in its fleet, including readying required infrastructure and training the pilots.

The strategically located Ambala air force station, which is around 220 km from the Indo-Pak border, in Haryana will host the first squadron of the Rafale jets, according to the sources. The second squadron of the French jet will be stationed at Hasimara air base in West Bengal.

[Rakesh]

If additional Rafales do come....

should we then ready ourselves for another pappu pissing contest on corruption.

Image Source ---> https://twitter.com/Atheist_Krishna

[Manish_Sharma]

114 + 57 = 171 Rafale manufacturing here, after 150th Rafale 75% material locally sourced for last 21 Rafales. NO WAY DEAL COULD BE 30 BILLION EUROS !!!

_______________________
Still let's pretend it's 30 billion EUROS :

Imagine we invested 30 billion EUROS in Desh itself 2 assembly lines or Tejas MWF and parellel 1 assembly line for Tejas Mk 1

We can have 900+ Tejas by mid 30s & potential of exporting with well oiled supply lines.

[Dileep]

The "ToT" for Rafale is much better than the screwdrivergiri HAL did all these decades. It goes to the hungry pvt sector folk (like yours truly) and we are the proverbial folk who stick a spade where gap for a needle is permitted.

Since we can't disclose sensitive (both military and business) information here, let me tell an exactly parallel that happened sometime in last millennium.

Company starts manufacturing fiber optic transceivers on screwdrivergiri basis. The next year, they manages to talk themselves into winning a contract to DESIGN a transceiver for another customer (without any IP infringement, mind you! The product is entirely different from the one being manufactured). If you keep visiting Aero India, you can see the progress pvt industries make leveraging from ToT as stepping stone.

[sooraj]

Dassault Rafale C French Air Force flying Display Zigermeet 2019 AirShow

[Vips]

Sir, they're talking about 200 of the French pretties, let alone 36 although I seriously don't that.

Point is that there will have to be some quick near term purchases considering the shrinking size of the force. My issue is that there should have been at least another order of 40+ foc standard Tejas. But instead there is talk of additional mki and now 200 rafale. I could understand maybe a few fulcrum and additional mki for the Hal line and a quick shot in the arm. But am truly disappointed with no additional orders for the mk1.

Remember someone from pados said "they will eat grass for atum bum"? If this 200 number materializes, our entire aviation mil-ind complex will have no choice but to eat grass for the next however many years.

Unnecessary equal-equal.
The total acquisition cost would be spread over at least 15 years. Not a big deal for a $2.7 (in 2018) to $10-12 Trillion economy (in 15 years). Forget eating grass we will order from Michelin rated French restaurants.

Now is spending on imports advised? No but what is the other option Screwdrivergiri? No way. I would rather have cutting edge stuff.

[ArjunPandit]

Karan/dileep sir,
with the intent to learn something more from what has been discussed, i would like to ask you the questions that have been answered many times before
1. what if Indian govt spends that much money for design/building/furthering existing programs, Aura, Ghatak? yes MK2/AMCA would get steroid boost. Why not a two engine Tejas variant (agree it would be a clean slate exercise)
2. Why not stuff ourselves with Tejas. What if we double the production capacity Could any program deliver earlier than Tejas MK1, Mk1A,
3. I am all for Rafale even more than Tejas from an immideate military PoV, but for long term interest of Indian MIC, i think some hard decisions need to be made. Even militarily larger number of Tejas will give strong deterrent against PLAAF and PAF

[kit]

France may offer 36 more Rafale to India but much bigger deal rumored

Quite likely that a mega deal for the Rafale will be tied to France sharing its nuclear sub technology, won't happen otherwise.

more than 100 Rafales expect a Barracuda version to be in IN

[Manish_Sharma]

Actually their nuclear sub is inferior, it uses less pure uranium, so needs to be refueled earlier. No match for Yasen

[Kashi]

No announcements on Rafale or anything substantial, though PM Modi has left for UAE.

Could be that the reports were kite-flying or that we are far off from any kind of agreement.

[Rakesh]

And there ends that un-substantiated news piece.

[sudhan]

He will be going back to France shortly for the G7 summit though

[Sumeet]

It makes no sense to announce another 36 aircraft deal while MMRCA contest is on. Either that gets scrapped and new Rafale deal is signed. Having both Rafale + MMRCA (different from Rafale) makes no sense from logistic point of view.

[Rakesh]

Please continue discussion of submarines in this thread ---> viewtopic.php?f=3&t=7652&p=2374500#p2374500

Quite likely that a mega deal for the Rafale will be tied to France sharing its nuclear sub technology, won't happen otherwise.

more than 100 Rafales expect a Barracuda version to be in IN

Actually their nuclear sub is inferior, it uses less pure uranium, so needs to be refueled earlier. No match for Yasen

[Nikhil T]

It makes no sense to announce another 36 aircraft deal while MMRCA contest is on. Either that gets scrapped and new Rafale deal is signed. Having both Rafale + MMRCA (different from Rafale) makes no sense from logistic point of view.

MMRCA could just be a bargaining chip to get the French to drop its price for Rafale.

[Dileep]

Karan/dileep sir,
with the intent to learn something more from what has been discussed, i would like to ask you the questions that have been answered many times before
1. what if Indian govt spends that much money for design/building/furthering existing programs, Aura, Ghatak? yes MK2/AMCA would get steroid boost. Why not a two engine Tejas variant (agree it would be a clean slate exercise)
2. Why not stuff ourselves with Tejas. What if we double the production capacity Could any program deliver earlier than Tejas MK1, Mk1A,
3. I am all for Rafale even more than Tejas from an immideate military PoV, but for long term interest of Indian MIC, i think some hard decisions need to be made. Even militarily larger number of Tejas will give strong deterrent against PLAAF and PAF

I would always prefer domestic programmes over imports. However, there is one advantage for screwdrivergiri. We get to know some of the 'better known methods of production', against the 'desi jugaad' culture.

The inside scoop I heard is that the idea now is to keep buying to maintain IAF strength while fast tracking the domestic programmes to take over as soon as possible (will take upto a decade). I got confirmation that MWF/AMCA/Ghatak are all funded now, and good progress is being made.

[Khalsa]

Is there anyone hoping for another G2G deal in this trip or just me ?

[Atmavik]

Karan/dileep sir,
with the intent to learn something more from what has been discussed, i would like to ask you the questions that have been answered many times before
1. what if Indian govt spends that much money for design/building/furthering existing programs, Aura, Ghatak? yes MK2/AMCA would get steroid boost. Why not a two engine Tejas variant (agree it would be a clean slate exercise)
2. Why not stuff ourselves with Tejas. What if we double the production capacity Could any program deliver earlier than Tejas MK1, Mk1A,
3. I am all for Rafale even more than Tejas from an immideate military PoV, but for long term interest of Indian MIC, i think some hard decisions need to be made. Even militarily larger number of Tejas will give strong deterrent against PLAAF and PAF

I would always prefer domestic programmes over imports. However, there is one advantage for screwdrivergiri. We get to know some of the 'better known methods of production', against the 'desi jugaad' culture.

The inside scoop I heard is that the idea now is to keep buying to maintain IAF strength while fast tracking the domestic programmes to take over as soon as possible (will take upto a decade). I got confirmation that MWF/AMCA/Ghatak are all funded now, and good progress is being made.

there is one advantage for screwdrivergiri. We get to know some of the 'better known methods of production', against the 'desi jugaad' culture.

Dileep Sahib,

i would have not believed this statement if someone else wrote this. But knowing your background has compelled me to take notice. a few questions for you

1. will this so called screwdrivergiri be by private sector? if so will the effect be better than what was with PSU
2. is this the best way to learn this as opposed to hiring people with experience
3. it has been suggested on this forum that big indian corps buy out smaller defense companies to gain manufacturing expertise. what r ur thoughts on this approch?

[Jay]

IAF is buying Rafales mainly to maintain Technological edge over PLAAF... As per Dhanoa Ji's comments, Rafale is on par with J20 and maybe superior in some aspects (except for Stealth)...

While I'm all for Desi stuff, when we do not have a technologically superior desi option, we should go for shopping outside...
-
And 36 Rafales is a small no. given our fleet size... 2-3 more squadrons are definitely required...

I do not want to comment nor do I have qualifications to say anything on Dhanao jis his assertion. We collectively(IAF/MOD/PMO/Babus) must commit ourselves to learn, build, and excel in disciplines where we currently are not. Looking at China, it will always try to have something superior to us and if we follow the same thinking, I’ll bet my Crown Jewels that 30 years from now we will still be throwing money at foreign maal.

[Jay]

The inside scoop I heard is that the idea now is to keep buying to maintain IAF strength while fast tracking the domestic programmes to take over as soon as possible (will take upto a decade). I got confirmation that MWF/AMCA/Ghatak are all funded now, and good progress is being made.

To me, this means we will always keep buying and we will make sure that our own products are in perpetual development-test cycle. Unbelievable arrogance.