West Asia News and Discussions

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 02 Sep 2019 09:39

^^ That has paki written all over it.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 03 Sep 2019 03:41

Meanwhile... General Vodkov has not been idle, apparently.

Houthi "locally develop" SAMs to take down US drones.

Wonder when the KSA F-15s are going to start falling out of the sky.

“An MQ-9 Reaper was shot down [Aug. 20] in Dhamar province … by a locally developed missile that hit its target with high precision," Houthi spokesman Brig.-Gen. Yahya Sarih announced Aug. 21.
US Central Command responded quickly, stating, “We are investigating reports of an attack by Iranian-backed Houthis forces on a US [drone] in authorized airspace over Yemen,” and that Iran's support of the Houthis “poses a serious threat to stability in the region and our partners.”
Read more: https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/origin ... z5yPIHbVnL

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 04 Sep 2019 07:23

https://www.petroleum-economist.com/art ... artnership
China and Iran flesh out strategic partnership

The central pillar of the new deal is that China will invest $280bn developing Iran's oil, gas and petrochemicals sectors. This amount may be front-loaded into the first five-year period of the deal but the understanding is that further amounts will be available in every subsequent five-year period, subject to both parties' agreement.There will be another $120bn investment in upgrading Iran's transport and manufacturing infrastructure, which again can be front-loaded into the first five-year period and added to in each subsequent period should both parties agree.Among other benefits, Chinese companies will be given the first refusal to bid on any new, stalled or uncompleted oil and gasfield developments. Chinese firms will also have first refusal on opportunities to become involved with any and all petchems projects in Iran, including the provision of technology, systems, process ingredients and personnel required to complete such projects."This will include up to 5,000 Chinese security personnel on the ground in Iran to protect Chinese projects, and there will be additional personnel and material available to protect the eventual transit of oil, gas and petchems supply from Iran to China, where necessary, including through the Persian Gulf," says the Iranian source.Under the terms of the new agreement, Petroleum Economist understands, China will be granted the right to delay payment for Iranian production up to two years. China will also be able to pay in soft currencies that it has accrued from doing business in Africa and the Former Soviet Union (FSU) states, in addition to using renminbi should the need arise—meaning that no US dollars will be involved in these commodity transaction payments from China to Iran.

hgupta · Post by **hgupta** » 04 Sep 2019 23:48

China will no longer need a String of Pearl strategy if Iran gives China such a foothold. On the plus side, it allows China to dump Pakistan if it so wishes.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 05 Sep 2019 01:09

If they bring their road-building technology with a few thousand road-builders from the Gobi Le-Education Centel and Lesolt, they can clear up the north-south road running the Chabahar to way up north along Afghan borer. Right now average speed on that road is like 2kmph. If they can take that to 40kmph, it is a dramatic transformation. If India can do that, it would be great too, but are there enough Cash-more stone-handlers recruited so far?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 05 Sep 2019 01:52

hgupta wrote:China will no longer need a String of Pearl strategy if Iran gives China such a foothold. On the plus side, it allows China to dump Pakistan if it so wishes.

This means China is going to neglect/abandon CPEC and by inference POJK is ready for Indian integration.

Once Baluchistan is free India can build the short 100km road between Gadwar and Chahbahar.

hgupta · Post by **hgupta** » 06 Sep 2019 01:18

ramana wrote:
hgupta wrote:China will no longer need a String of Pearl strategy if Iran gives China such a foothold. On the plus side, it allows China to dump Pakistan if it so wishes.

This means China is going to neglect/abandon CPEC and by inference POJK is ready for Indian integration.

Once Baluchistan is free India can build the short 100km road between Gadwar and Chahbahar.

Actually with such a stronghold China will preempt India in such an endeavor.

Given the unsurprising turn of events I only wished that the GoI had the balls to withstand USA and build a closer relationship with Iran in order to keep the Chinese out and prevent a permanent foothold in West Asia. Now the encirclement of India is beginning. And India may be forced into an alliance with US-Saudi-UAE bloc which may not be to India’s long term interests. One can only hope that it would be a repeat of what happened in Africa and African countries waking up and realizing what a mistake the Chinese relationship was.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 06 Sep 2019 07:06

hgupta one possibility of China in Iran is to match Indian interest in Iran via Chahbahr.
Already the Chahbahar road via Zaranj is doing good and needs a little more extension to reach Central Asian road networks.
Also the ~$500B helps Iran too which is under embargoes.

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 06 Sep 2019 10:38

Imagine plight of pakis blinded by declaring that China is friend (in no less fancy terms).

Now they can't see that Chinese presence near Iran border and at mouth of gulf is a big (if not THE biggest) problem for them too with China taking everything. They can't see billions of $$$ of good taken by China that too on unfair terms given that China has done that 'otherwise' - meaning within Pakistan and Afghanistan too!

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 07 Sep 2019 07:45

hgupta wrote:
Actually with such a stronghold China will preempt India in such an endeavor.

Given the unsurprising turn of events I only wished that the GoI had the balls to withstand USA and build a closer relationship with Iran in order to keep the Chinese out and prevent a permanent foothold in West Asia. Now the encirclement of India is beginning. And India may be forced into an alliance with US-Saudi-UAE bloc which may not be to India’s long term interests. One can only hope that it would be a repeat of what happened in Africa and African countries waking up and realizing what a mistake the Chinese relationship was.

China can do it for 2 reasons:

1. It has roughly balanced trade with Iran. Iran sends about $ 17 Billion worth of Oil to China and China exports about $ 18 Billion worth of products to Iran. A balanced trade is such as that can be denominated in yuan. Because China has a lot to export that Iran consumes even if the balance of trade were to swing in Iran's favor which it has not, Iran could keep balances in yuan in a Chinese bank because sooner or later it will use them to buy Chinese products.

On the other hand when Iran and India tried to pay for Iranian oil via rupees, the balances kept piling up I believe it was in UCO Bank because Iran sent about $ 10.5 Billion worth of Oil to India but India could export only about $2-3 Billion worth of products mainly food grain etc to Iran and where else can Iran spend Indian rupees other than India? So what will it do with the ever increasing rupee balances in an Indian bank?

2. For all the hue and cry of the US-China trade war, China has US "inflation" by the "balls". This is what I would call the real "monkey trap". The US can obliterate China many times over militarily but it cannot afford not to trade with China or sanction China which would automatically result in China being excluded from USD markets. The result is that at least Walmart and probably most US retailers would have to shutdown most stores immediately since 90% of their products appear to be from China and US consumer price inflation would go through the roof. All of Trump's voters would feel real pain. That is the vice like grip that China has on the US economy and that is why even if it does any deal with Iran, the US cannot really impose the kind of sanctions on China that it can on the rest of the world. Trump is trying very hard but 20 years of actively collaborating with the Chinese by US politicians including Messers Clinton, Bush, Obama cannot be undone overnight.

hgupta · Post by **hgupta** » 09 Sep 2019 21:26

Ldev,

India manufactures much more than just agricultural products and produce. It also manufactures heavy machinery, finished goods, electronics, and cars. Why can't India export those products to Iran? I m thinking that the trade ministry of India is not up to par if it cannot persuade Iran to purchase more goods from India using Indian currency.

habal · Post by **habal** » 09 Sep 2019 21:45

Iranian imports from China may be more in form of heavy machinery like plasma cutters, CNC machines, gyroscopes, sensors, heavy duty tools and drills, rare earth minerals etc which can help Iran make it's own weapons. They may also be importing rocket parts and other paraphernalia from China as well. Apart from a smattering of consumer durables.

how does India match up on these fronts ?

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 15 Sep 2019 02:37

Posting here too..

Drone strikes on crucial Saudi Arabian oil facilities have disrupted about half of the kingdom's oil capacity, or 5% of the daily global oil supply, people with knowledge of Saudi's oil operations told CNN Business.
Yemen's Houthi rebels on Saturday took responsibility for the attacks, saying 10 drones targeted state-owned Saudi Aramco oil facilities in Abqaiq and Khurais, according to the Houthi-run Al-Masirah news agency.
Five million barrels per day of crude production have been impacted after fires raged at the sites, one of them the world's largest oil production facility, people with knowledge of the kingdom's operations said. The latest OPEC figures from August 2019 put the total Saudi production at 9.8 million barrels per day.
A source told CNN Business that Aramco "hopes to have that capacity restored within days."

I think the Houthis have taken this step because they are not very afraid of KSA retaliation. The war has turned. This may not be the last attack either. With Gelf nations turning against KSA who will lament the loss of KSA's oil?

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 15 Sep 2019 03:08

Drone strikes knock out half of Saudi oil capacity, 5 million barrels a day

Drone strikes on crucial Saudi Arabian oil facilities have disrupted about half of the kingdom's oil capacity, or 5% of the daily global oil supply, people with knowledge of Saudi's oil operations told CNN Business.

..................

Gyan · Post by **Gyan** » 15 Sep 2019 22:41

We must learn to analyze possible reasons of policy changes by Indian Govt. What if we are dumping Iran to get into good books of Saudis, USA, Israel and trying to chop off support base of Pakistan? Saudis along with GCC can provide lot of benefits to India.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 16 Sep 2019 03:08

Gyan wrote:We must learn to analyze possible reasons of policy changes by Indian Govt. What if we are dumping Iran to get into good books of Saudis, USA, Israel and trying to chop off support base of Pakistan? Saudis along with GCC can provide lot of benefits to India.

They already are, we are getting inevestment from them and their support to Paki being cut down same time.

schinnas · Post by **schinnas** » 16 Sep 2019 03:24

I doubt the sudden technical advancements and audacity by Houthi rebels are thanks merely to Iran. There may be Chinese hand behind it. China wants to do to US using Iran what US did to Soviets using Afghan rebels.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 16 Sep 2019 04:16

India should trade Chabahar for PoK.

Added l8r:

There is a possible realignment that forms an axis between China-Pakistan-Iran (-Turkey-Russia). This has many implications. Especially for India. I just do not think India can remain non-aligned under this specific configuration. ??????

As an appetizer, India needs to consolidate Kashmir and then impose an Indian model (all nations do that, nothing to be ashamed of) which is consistent over the decades. We really do not want a pacifist to topple this model and hand over the gains back to China, et all.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 19 Sep 2019 03:13

Netanyahu era over!

It is clear now Netanyahu is unlikely to return for fifth term. Reeling under corruption charges , he has too much to lose . His party Likud is equipoised with rival Blue & white party, both falling short of majority.
In this scenario third leader Liberman has become king maker all of a sudden. He has Arab Israeli MPs in his party and Israel seems to be heading for a liberal broad coalition govt.
Does it emboldens Iran, weakens KSA , only time will tell . https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 09931.html

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 20 Sep 2019 01:27

corrected

Counting still in progress
This news from last year

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/ ... ssion=true

mmasand · Post by **mmasand** » 20 Sep 2019 01:35

IndraD wrote:wow Netanyahu is PM again !! Till yesterday exit polls indicated his exit but he returns for record fifth time as PM. Remarkably he used his photo with Modi & Trump for election campaign

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/ ... ssion=true

That is an old article from April, he didn't go onto win the election (very complicated first past the post system). As it stands, his calls for a unity govt with the Gantz has failed. Expect him to stand down in the coming weeks, he will face the music in October as he loses his legal cover for all those years of peaky business and the wife's shopping trips at the expense of the state.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 20 Sep 2019 01:38

i beg ur pardon !! Should have checked dates

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 21 Sep 2019 07:08

If Nut$Yahoo leaves and the opposition takes over, there will be a fantastic opportunity to realign Eyeran-YYY-Afghanistan-Central Asian Republics against KSA-Paki-Ummah. Erdogan I think will keep feet in both boats. My reading of DT is that he does not like the pressure to launch the mijjiles. He understands that the pressure is coming from the same ppl as the ones who gave the bright idea to invade Syria. So he will yell and thunder and bluster but no mijjiles.

kittoo · Post by **kittoo** » 21 Sep 2019 11:09

IndraD wrote:Netanyahu era over!

It is clear now Netanyahu is unlikely to return for fifth term. Reeling under corruption charges , he has too much to lose . His party Likud is equipoised with rival Blue & white party, both falling short of majority.
In this scenario third leader Liberman has become king maker all of a sudden. He has Arab Israeli MPs in his party and Israel seems to be heading for a liberal broad coalition govt.
Does it emboldens Iran, weakens KSA , only time will tell . https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 09931.html

Isnt Liberman a super-hawk? And yet he has Arab-Israeli MPs supporting him? Man Israeli elections are complicated.
I hope India-israel relations will not suffer no matter who becomes the PM.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 22 Sep 2019 21:26

I wonder if things are so bissfool there. KSA has probably clamped a total lid on all reporting from inside KSA.

The United Nations envoy for Yemen has welcomed an offer from the country’s Houthi rebels to halt all attacks on Saudi Arabia, saying it could bring an end to years of bloody conflict.
Implementation of the initiative by the Houthis “in good faith could send a powerful message of the will to end the war,” special envoy for Yemen Martin Griffiths said.
The Iran-backed Houthis, who control the capital Sanaa and other parts of Yemen, have been fighting against a Saudi-led coalition that supports the country’s internationally recognised government in a devastating five-year war.
Griffiths hailed “the desire for a political solution to end the conflict” in a statement issued from UN headquarters in New York.
On Friday, the Houthis proposed halting attacks on Saudi Arabia as part of a peace initiative.
Saudi Arabia gave a cautious response, with minister of state for foreign affairs Adel al-Jubeir saying on Saturday: “We judge other parties by their deeds, actions and not by their words, so we will see [whether] they actually do this or not.”

Note: offer is **NOT** for ceasefire in Yemen. It is to stop kicking Saudi musharrafs IF KSA stops and withdraws. IOW total defeat stares MBS in the face.

I think the 50% production kaput, is the equivalent of Hiroshima. With a Nagasaki promised if they don't surrender.

nam · Post by **nam** » 23 Sep 2019 23:00

Just came to know Greece also has F16 and it is used to intercept turkish F16!

When the shooting starts, all the both side need to do is to paint their jets in each other color..

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 24 Sep 2019 02:22

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/ele ... -1.7890115
President of Israel has said : Netanyahu & Gantz made significant progress over forming govt and had detailed talks.
Both sides remain sort of equipoise on numbers.
Outgoing govt has left Israel in debt.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 24 Sep 2019 02:29

https://www.theguardian.com/news/2019/s ... intervened

Iran has released dual national Naznin Ratcliff for £400 million it owed to UK since many years. Same could be the reason why Iran has let UK oil tanker go.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 24 Sep 2019 06:54

What happened with the dramatic James Bond/ Frederick Forsyth type takeover of the Iranian tanker off Malta? Bullied the crew, who were mostly desi and stayed very calm. Seems to have ended in total humiliation for The Brishit Empyah... I seem to recall that Malta refused to have anything to have with it, leaving the herrows looking like cretins. And then Iran took over a British tanker...

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 24 Sep 2019 16:36

very true UBCN
On one hand US is trying to squeeze Iran through sanctions
on the other UK, Australia etc are paying huge ransom to Iran !

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 29 Sep 2019 07:41

Do they have the teeth to follow through?

I wonder if Gen. Vodkov and Marshal Smirnoff are willing to start another drive. W/O Russian air support the Iranians and Syrians cannot hope to smash the Turks and deter the "NATO" occupiers.

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 29 Sep 2019 11:18

hgupta wrote:Ldev,

India manufactures much more than just agricultural products and produce. It also manufactures heavy machinery, finished goods, electronics, and cars. Why can't India export those products to Iran? I m thinking that the trade ministry of India is not up to par if it cannot persuade Iran to purchase more goods from India using Indian currency.

Sure but I don't see why Iran would want to buy any of these things from India when they can already get it likely cheaper and possibly better quality from China.

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 29 Sep 2019 11:22

UlanBatori wrote:Do they have the teeth to follow through?

I wonder if Gen. Vodkov and Marshal Smirnoff are willing to start another drive. W/O Russian air support the Iranians and Syrians cannot hope to smash the Turks and deter the "NATO" occupiers.

Getting the Turks out of Syria will require a lot of guerilla warfare which could grind on for years. As for the US, their overwhelming firepower means the only option is asymmetric warfare, something Hezbollah was doing long before it was a buzzword. Look how Iran \ Hezbollah got the US out of Lebanon. Remember the Beirut bombings in 1983? An attack like that would drive the US out of Syria very quickly.

abhik · Post by **abhik** » 29 Sep 2019 13:37

IMO the best course of action would be to get the US to leave on its own, through some sort of talks while Trump is still president (he did want to remove them but the deep state nixed it). Turkey is going to be another matter altogether.

schinnas · Post by **schinnas** » 29 Sep 2019 17:03

Something big is happening in Saudi - Yemen. Houthis have captured about 10K Saudi troops and mercenaries and several positions near the border along with huge amount of arms and ammunitions. First reported in Al Jazeera, now all major Western media is covering it giving it credibility.

Also a Saudi general close to the King was dismissed few days back and is now reported to be killed by gunfire.

The yemenis have proposed a ceasefire if Saudi stops it's action and rollback its invasion. Sounds like a huge set back for Saudis just a few days after the coordinated and sophisticated drone attack on their largest oil fields.

If Saudi decides to cut losses and buys peace with Yemen, this will be a HUGE victory for Iran and has potential to upend several calculations of various powers in the mid East.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 29 Sep 2019 17:22

If the Yemen war ends in Saudi disgrace, the Turks are in for it next. I don't think US is going to be too enthused about supporting Turkey.

schinnas · Post by **schinnas** » 29 Sep 2019 17:29

While Saudi has started showing some slight signs of modernisation, Turks under Erdogen are going on a regressive oath coupled with arrogance. I would welcome any tight slap on Turks. May be that will wake them up from the Ottaman empire day dream.

CalvinH · Post by **CalvinH** » 30 Sep 2019 03:57

UlanBatori wrote:If the Yemen war ends in Saudi disgrace, the Turks are in for it next. I don't think US is going to be too enthused about supporting Turkey.

Turkey came in Radar as soon as Erdogan started dreaming of Caliphate led by Turkey and assuming leadership of Ummah. Looks like Turkey double crossed US/Saudi/Israel in war against Syria too focusing only in its own objectives vs the coalition. A failed coup attempt, crashing of their currency...coalition is taking it out on Turkey for sometime.

CalvinH · Post by **CalvinH** » 30 Sep 2019 04:01

schinnas wrote:Something big is happening in Saudi - Yemen. Houthis have captured about 10K Saudi troops and mercenaries and several positions near the border along with huge amount of arms and ammunitions. First reported in Al Jazeera, now all major Western media is covering it giving it credibility.

Next, $20 Billion gizmos to be procured from US/EU as emergency measure to safeguard KSA border.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 30 Sep 2019 04:08

The amazing thing is that all those convoys go nicely packed one behind the other along narrow roads surrounded by hillocks. Absolutely no evidence of air cover of any sort. If this ambush etc went on for so long, so close to Saudi borders, where were their vaunted F-15s and F-22s or whatever, and Apaches? The Houthis leisurely picked targets and launched ATGMs, then came in with AK-47s.. until they could do the usual AoA yelling and kneel in prayer quietly. NO evidence of any air support. This is not new: we have seen so much of it.

And Houthis may be overstating with propaganda, but... a few months to 1 year ago they were virtually finished: fighting down in one last pocket, blockaded from the sea, bombed from the air, surrounded by armor and artillery...

Today they hold the capital and most urban centers (what's left other than rubble) and known to be attacking inside KSA. We didn't see tons of propaganda on how this occurred, but things are so bad for the saudis that their Gelf Emirate buddies bombed their proxies, and got out of the war. So I for one am amazed at the Houthis and tend to believe their claims.