Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

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Peregrine
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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Peregrine »

Pakistan should not worry about currency devaluation’ – APP

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan can enhance its economic growth by following the Japanese model, norms, and culture of education and development, said Embassy of Japan Deputy Mission Chief Yusuke Shindo.

While delivering a lecture at the Gateway Institute of Superior Services he said that Pakistan was transforming from a stabilisation period and therefore the government should not worry about the devaluation of the rupee.

“Even though Pakistan’s debt has increased due to devaluation, the government should focus on development as only a higher and more stable economic growth can help Pakistan improve its exchange rate,” he added.

Sharing the Japanese experience, he said that in 1971, the Japanese exchange rate was very high against the dollar which was 360 Japanese Yen (JPY) per dollar.

“After gaining momentum due to high growth rate, the exchange rate gradually improved, and today it is around 110 JPY per dollar,” Yusuke added.

He said that in the 1960s when Japan took a loan from the World Bank the exchange rate was very high, however, when it repaid the loan the exchange rate reduced by 40%, which meant that Japan had to repay 40% less amount.

Similarly, he said that although Pakistan’s debt had increased due to devaluation the government should focus on its development as only higher and stable economic growth could help in improving the exchange rate.

GUIDANCE : 1950 U S DOLLAR = PAK RS 3.3085 = JAP YENS 361.10

TODAY 20-09-2019 : U S DOLLAR = PAK RS 156.3195 = JAP YENS 107.56 :rotfl:

Terroristan Rupee is on course to reach 180-200 PER US DOLLAR!
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by abhijitm »

After hearing Shindo pak should now set a goal of 500 pkr per dollar. Go the full nine yards.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by A_Gupta »

^^^ Rupee devaluation means that Pakistani feudal lords have to pay more for their foreign goodies. There are no Sony, Toyota, Mitsubishi, Honda, etc., waiting in the wings in Pakistan for the opportunity of a highly favorable exchange rate to grow into giants.
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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Peregrine »

Pakistan gets $1.5b worth of foreign loans in Jul-Aug - Shahbaz Rana
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan received $1.5 billion or Rs237 billion worth of foreign loans in first two months of the current fiscal year, higher by 108% over the same period of the previous year, aimed at meeting the country’s financing needs.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Vips »

Pak close to being ‘blacklisted’ by Financial Action Task Force.

Pakistan appears to be falling grossly short of delivery on the 27-point action plan prepared by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) to help it escape ‘black listing’, with sources monitoring its actions against terror financing indicating that Islamabad has delivered on only six of the 27 points so far. ‘Black listing’ by FATF stands to choke Pakistan’s access to international finance.

Pakistan currently figures on the FATF ‘grey list’ and is up for a final review of its status at the FATF plenary meeting in Paris next month. The objectives of the Financial Action Task Force are to set standards and promote effective implementation of legal, regulatory and operational
measures for combating money laundering, terrorist financing and other related threats to integrity of the international financial system.

Sources monitoring Pakistan’s implementation of FATF action plan said Pakistan has located only five of the 100-plus UN designated terrorists currently said to be within its territory. The five include Lashkar-e-Taiba/Jamaat-ud-Dawah/Falah-i Insaniyat boss Hafiz Mohammad Saeed.

Saeed was arrested by Pakistani authorities in July on terror financing charges. He has been in custody since. As per reports coming from Pakistan, over 900 properties, including madrassas and dispensaries, have been seized for terror financing linkages. While 750 of these properties are allegedly linked to Falah-i-Insaniyat, 150 are associated with Jaish-eMohammad. However, Pakistan is yet to identify the source of funding behind the seized properties or register any case against their owners (How can Pakistan admit that ISI/Army funds the terrorists :rotfl: ) . Also, none of the properties seized are active terror facilities like armouries, weapons/explosbives dumps or terror training camps (All the terror facilities are intact).

As many as 23 terror funding cases were registered in July, one year after the FATF placed Pakistan on the grey list and asked it to deliver on a 27-point anti-terror financing plan to escape the blacklist. Nearly 65 active terrorists have been named in these cases.

While Pakistan is making some effort to be seen as tough on terror financing and money laundering, this may be well short of FATF’s standards and could leave Islamabad at a high risk of being blacklisted. Pakistan was given 15 months to get its act together on a host of issues. It has until October, before the FATF plenary meeting decides whether to keep it on the grey list or blacklist it.
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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Peregrine »

B S E GALLOPING AFTER HOWDI MODI EVENT!

S&P BSE SENSEX

Index Current : 39,090.03 - Pt. Change : +1075.41 - % Change : +2.83%

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Cr.) : 1,48,89,652.44 - 70.9675

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 2,112.19 Billion

P S E SUFFERING AFTER EFFECT OF HOWDI MODI EVENT!

P S E

Current Index : 31,751.21 – Change : -359.89 - % Change : -1.13% - High : 32,147.65 – Low 31,710.00

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (Rs.Tr.) : 6,331,832,958,268 - 156.70

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 40.41 Billion

B S E : P S E : : 52.27 : 1


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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Peregrine »

Image

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Post by Peregrine »

Top auditor detects irregularities worth Rs97b in Pakistan Railways - Waqas Ahmed
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s top auditor has detected billions of rupees worth of irregularities in Pakistan Railways, exposing gross mismanagement within the state-run transport service that continues to incur losses upon losses.
The Auditor General of Pakistan (AGP) pointed out the irregularities, which amount to a shocking Rs97 billion, in his audit report for 2018-19. The AGP has subsequently directed Railways authorities to take action against those found responsible for the massive loss to the national exchequer.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Bart S »

Peregrine wrote:Top auditor detects irregularities worth Rs97b in Pakistan Railways - Waqas Ahmed
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s top auditor has detected billions of rupees worth of irregularities in Pakistan Railways, exposing gross mismanagement within the state-run transport service that continues to incur losses upon losses.
The Auditor General of Pakistan (AGP) pointed out the irregularities, which amount to a shocking Rs97 billion, in his audit report for 2018-19. The AGP has subsequently directed Railways authorities to take action against those found responsible for the massive loss to the national exchequer.
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The whole goddamn country has only 138 trains. Even considering that PKR is less valuable than zoo dollars, how does such a piddly operation support a 97 billion PKR fraud? :eek:
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by neeraj »

^^^*
That’s because 1 Baki train = 10 Indian trains
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Bart S »

IR runs over 20,000 trains daily, so that would be 1 Baki train = something like 150 Indian trains!
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Bart S »

Farukh Saleems twitter feed is a good summary of the economic situation of Pakistan:
https://twitter.com/SaleemFarrukh
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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Peregrine »

S&P BSE SENSEX

Index Current : 39,097.14 - Pt. Change : +7.11 - % Change : +0.02

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Cr.) : 1,48,73,754.78 - $ 1 / I N R = 71.0550

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 2,093.27 Billion

P S E

Current Index : 31,829.24 – Change : 78.03 - % Change 0.25% - High : 31,892.23 - Low : 31,436.22

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (Rs.Tr.) : 6,358,248,820,419 - $ 1 / T R = 156.30

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 40.68

B S E : P S E : : 51.46 :1


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Govt borrowing from banks almost doubles

KARACHI: The government’s borrowing from the scheduled banks jumped by 99 per cent within a week ended on Sept 13, reported State Bank on Monday.

During the week from Sept 6 to Sept 13, the government’s borrowings increased by Rs443.5 billion to Rs899bn. This is almost equal to the amount it borrowed (Rs455.8bn) since July 1 to Sept 6.

The State Bank’s report indicates that the government borrowed aggressively during the week and added about Rs443.5bn in its debts from the scheduled banks.

The aggressive borrowing began in mid July when the State Bank completed its cycle of monetary tightening and raised the key discount rate by one percentage point. Government debt auctions had remained lacklustre for almost a year and a half until then.

This year the borrowing situation has changed compared to last year which emerged out of the IMF agreement. The government borrowing from scheduled banks and retiring SBP debts since the start of the current fiscal year.

During the same period of last fiscal year, the government had retired Rs1,238bn of the scheduled banks but this year the government has so far retired Rs625bn of the State Bank.

The private sector retired Rs115.7bn till Sept 13 which was Rs86bn till Sept 6. However, last year the private sector had borrowed Rs16.5bn during the same period.

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Post by Peregrine »

Gas crisis looms over Pakistan as some fields may be shut - Zafar Bhutta
ISLAMABAD: The gas crisis is feared to hit the country once again in the upcoming winter season as a plan to continue to avoid use of furnace oil in power plants will lead to the suspension of oil and gas supplies from some fields.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by ramana »

Anyone plans to short the Paki rupee in FOREX markets?

As FATF deadline approaches may be a good Yindu idea to profit from their woes.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by sudhan »

ramana wrote:Anyone plans to short the Paki rupee in FOREX markets?

As FATF deadline approaches may be a good Yindu idea to profit from their woes.
Which is probably what Soros was planning to do.. Hence the urgent GuBO
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by ramana »

How would one go about doing it?
Are there futures contracts on Paki rupee?
Which exchange has that?
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by ramana »

Ok. Here is the scoop:

https://walletinvestor.com/forex-foreca ... prediction

USD/PKR rate equal to 156.350 at 2019-09-25 (today's range: 156.175 - 156.865). Based on our forecasts, a long-term increase is expected, the Forex rate prognosis for 2024-09-21 is 277.178. With a 5-year investment, the revenue is expected to be around +77.28%. Your current $100 investment may be up to $177.28 in 2024.
But this assumes ducking the FATF black list and that TSP will be there 5 years from now!
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Deans »

Ramana ji, I think its the other way around. They say you can make money from the fall in the Pak Rupee. In their example:

1. You (an Abdul in Pak) pay Rs 156 to buy 1 US $
2. 5 years later you sell that Dollar and get Rs 277.

You gain assuming that over 5 years inflation has not made your Rs 277 have the same purchasing power as Rs 156 today.
In reality inflation should negate the currency gains, but I don't expect an average Pakistani with an inadequate understanding of economics will get that.What is tells me is that they see a consistent double digit inflation (and currency depreciation) for the next 5 years. That does not assume the repayment of CPEC loans for which there is no transparency on repayment terms.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by khan »

ramana wrote:Anyone plans to short the Paki rupee in FOREX markets?

As FATF deadline approaches may be a good Yindu idea to profit from their woes.
Do you know a broker dealer that allows this? Also the problem is whoever borrows has to pay the SBP interest rate of 12%/yr.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Aditya_V »

ramana wrote:Ok. Here is the scoop:

https://walletinvestor.com/forex-foreca ... prediction

USD/PKR rate equal to 156.350 at 2019-09-25 (today's range: 156.175 - 156.865). Based on our forecasts, a long-term increase is expected, the Forex rate prognosis for 2024-09-21 is 277.178. With a 5-year investment, the revenue is expected to be around +77.28%. Your current $100 investment may be up to $177.28 in 2024.
But this assumes ducking the FATF black list and that TSP will be there 5 years from now!
How does this work, you invest USD 100 and get Paki rupees 15635, and in 5 years time that 15635 is USD 56.41, is there some Madrassa Maths I dont understand or for abduls sell all our Paki Rupees and buy USD and get for Paki RUpees 15635 get 27718 deposited in a US Bank with Nil Interest?
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by abhijitm »

Aditya_V wrote:
ramana wrote:Ok. Here is the scoop:

https://walletinvestor.com/forex-foreca ... prediction




But this assumes ducking the FATF black list and that TSP will be there 5 years from now!
How does this work, you invest USD 100 and get Paki rupees 15635, and in 5 years time that 15635 is USD 56.41, is there some Madrassa Maths I dont understand or for abduls sell all our Paki Rupees and buy USD and get for Paki RUpees 15635 get 27718 deposited in a US Bank with Nil Interest?
It's actually other way round (and experts pls correct me if I am wrong). Let me tell you in more simplistic way, ignoring buy sell exchange difference etc.

Today's pkr exchange rate is say 150 per dollar. You anticipate it would be 200 in one year. But you are not holding pkr so you borrow 450 pkr from a lender promising him to give it back in one year + 50 PKR in commission. Now you have 450 PRK in hand. You sell that in forex market. This is short selling, meaning selling something you don't own but you owe. In return you got 3 USD. You hold on to those 3 USD and now wait for a year.

After a year your prediction comes true. PKR is now trading 200 per dollar. So you go in the market and sell 2.5 USD of 3 USD you earned earlier. You get 500 PKR. You return that 450 PKR + 50 PKR commission to your lender. You keep 0.5 USD as profit. You do this in volume trading and you will end up earning millions of USD in profit.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Aditya_V »

WHich is the Same, Sell PKR, buy USD now, sell USD and buy PKR, Balance you if can convert is profit?
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by abhijitm »

Aditya_V wrote:WHich is the Same, Sell PKR, buy USD now, sell USD and buy PKR, Balance you if can convert is profit?
The idea is to keep USD as profit and not PKR. So you sell only that much USD to cover your borrowing. Residual USD with you is profit.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Deans »

abhijitm wrote:
Aditya_V wrote:WHich is the Same, Sell PKR, buy USD now, sell USD and buy PKR, Balance you if can convert is profit?
The idea is to keep USD as profit and not PKR. So you sell only that much USD to cover your borrowing. Residual USD with you is profit.
That is correct, my example earlier was a simplistic version.
However, the fallacy in the logic which another post mentioned (though not something that a person schooled in Madrasa math will get), is that borrowing rates will be more than the rate of currency depreciation (because inflation is high), so in reality there is no gain.

More practically, when people expect currency depreciation, they tend to hoard forex - Gulf returned people for e.g. will not deposit their $ in
the bank (even if it is a Dollar account) exacerbating the crisis.
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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Peregrine »

S&P BSE SENSEX

Index Current : 38,989.74 - Pt. Change : +396.22 - % Change : +1.03

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Cr.) : 1,48,46,499.71 - $ 1 / I N R = 70.9100

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 2,093.71 Billion

P S E

Current Index : 31,433.89 – Change : -131.32 - % Change : -0.42% - High : 31,592.11 - Low : 31,272.06

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (Rs.Tr.) : 6,314,519,704,401 - $ 1 / T R = 156.60

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 40.34 Billion

B S E : P S E : : 51.90 : 1


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Post by Peregrine »

Top court seeks FBR report on fake companies involved in tax fraud - Haseeb Bhatti

The Supreme Court on Thursday directed the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) to submit a report within two weeks on measures taken to recover money from individuals receiving undue tax refunds through fraud.

FBR Chairman Shabbar Zaidi told the court that the body had sent a summary to the Prime Minister's Office for approval in order to initiate an inquiry against three people who are suspected of creating fake companies.

The court told him to additionally submit a written report of developments in the case in two weeks' time. The FBR chairman said more time will be required to prepare one and requested the bench for the same, but the appeal was declined.

"This is a matter of Rs90 million," remarked Justice Gulzar Ahmed, who was heading the two-member bench hearing the case. "Rs90m went missing from the national treasury and no one knows [about it]."

The judge criticised the performance of the FBR, saying that the body was "protecting its employees", who are suspected to be complicit in the matter.

"How many employees does the FBR have?" he asked. Zaidi told him that the institution employs 21,500 people.

"The salaries of the employees alone probably surpass the recoveries made by FBR," Justice Ahmed remarked acerbically.

He said that those who are found guilty of creating fake companies to commit tax fraud can be sentenced to jail for up to five years, in addition to being ordered to pay back money they received as refunds.

The hearing was adjourned indefinitely.

The FBR is currently taking action against people suspected of committing tax fraud through ghost companies and fake accounts.

In May this year, the FBR's Directorate General of Broadening of Tax Base had unearthed massive sales and income tax fraud through a network of fake accounts in the sugar and textile sectors.

The racket involved a chain of ghost entities in the sugar and textile sectors who were allegedly involved in fake sales.

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P T I govt approves $1b crisis response loan from ADB - Shahbaz Rana
ISLAMABAD: The government on Wednesday approved the proposal of acquiring a $1-billion crisis response loan from the Asian Development Bank (ADB), paving the way for its approval by the lending agency in November.
The Central Development Working Party (CDWP) approved the special policy-based lending that the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) government wanted to avail to build the country’s foreign exchange reserves. The Ministry of Finance moved the summary to the CDWP for seeking its nod.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Vips »

Pakistan "approving the proposal to acquire the ADB Loan" :rotfl:
It is like the beggar saying : I approve of you giving charity to me.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by ramana »

My question was related to if some one like Soros can short the Paki rupee betting it will go down and see if he can make money.

Anyway looks like Pak might narrowly avoid Black Listing in FATF as it needs three votes for TSP.
Turkey and China firmly lined up. The borderline one is Malaysia.

Hope NaMo can impress on Malaysia they need to vote against TSP.
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Post by Peregrine »

Foreign exchange: SBP reserves drop $135m to $8.5b - Our Correspondent
KARACHI: The foreign exchange reserves held by the central bank decreased 1.57% on a weekly basis, according to data released by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Thursday.
Earlier, the reserves had spiralled downwards, falling below the $7-billion mark, which raised concern over Pakistan’s ability to meet its financing requirements. However, financial assistance from the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia and other friendly nations helped shore up the foreign exchange reserves.
On September 20, the foreign currency reserves held by the SBP were recorded at $8,465.3 million, down $134.7 million compared with $8,600.4 millionin the previous week. The decline in the reserves was attributed to external debt payments.
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Post by Peregrine »

IMF bars Pakistan from extending sovereign guarantees till December review
ISLAMABAD: The IMF has barred the government not to extend any sovereign guarantee till December review this calendar year and owing to this every reason, it has told Power Division that it is unable to provide sovereign guarantee for another Islamic Sukuk bond of Rs200 billion to partially retire the circular debt.
The government had already arranged Rs200 billion from Islamic banks for which it had extended sovereign guarantee apart from pledging the assets of the electric power distribution companies, but this time, the IMF has stopped the government from extending the sovereign guarantees, one of the top men of the Power Division told The News.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Vips »

ramana wrote:My question was related to if some one like Soros can short the Paki rupee betting it will go down and see if he can make money.

Anyway looks like Pak might narrowly avoid Black Listing in FATF as it needs three votes for TSP.
Turkey and China firmly lined up. The borderline one is Malaysia.

Hope NaMo can impress on Malaysia they need to vote against TSP.
Malaysia will choose pakistan when it comes to choosing sides between Pakistan and India. Mahatir has already shown what a liar he is when he said that India did not ask him to extradite Zakir Naik. Only Uncle Sam can now lean on Malaysia to do the sensible thing like thy did with Saudi during the FATF meeting last year.

Porkistan, Turkey and Malaysia have today announced their plans to launch an international English News Channel.

There is now a Pakistan each in Southern Europe and in South East Asia.

Pakistan has been stung by Saudi, UAE and by extension the GCC siding with India and is now desperately looking for an alternative Malsi group to prop itself up and feel important.
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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Peregrine »

S&P BSE SENSEX

Index Current : 38,822.57 - Pt. Change : -167.17 - % Change : -0.43

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (Rs.Cr.) : 1,47,69,837.29 – S 1 / I N R = 70.7700

Market Capitalization of BSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 2,087.01 Billion

P S E

Current Index : 32,070.81 – Change : 636.92 - % Change : 1.99% - High : 32,085.73 - Low : 31,368.81

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (Rs.Tr.) : 6,409,403,755,167 - $ 1 / T R = 156.70

Market Capitalization of PSE Listed Co. (U S $.) : 40.90 Billon

B S E : P S E : : 51.03 : 1


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Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Peregrine »

FBR may face Rs100b shortfall in first quarter - Shahbaz Rana
ISLAMABAD: The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) may sustain around Rs100-billion shortfall in tax collection against the trimmed first-quarter target of Rs1.071 trillion, which may increase prospects of returning to the old habit of taking heavy advances to narrow the gap.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by mody »

Does Hong Kong also have a vote in FATF?
Turkey is already in the dog house and the US and EU may bar any further military sales to the Turks in response to the purchase of S400 and also to put pressure on Erdogan. China is expected to side with the pukes. Malaysia would run the risk of displeasing all the other countries voting against the pakis, if it explicitly votes NO. China being the presiding country will probably having a greater bearing. It might try to buy the pakis another extension and push the vote back to the next planary session. The pakis would continue to be on the grey list and keep licking China's feet agree to more gubo till then.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by schinnas »

China has more leverage over Malaysia than any other country and also about 30% o their population is Chinese with strong ties to their mother land. It's unlikely that they vote against Pakistan unless we have some real lever that we could pull.
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Vips »

It is a given that Porkistan would be able to stay off the black list due to the two new pakistan's in southern europe and south east asia. Even staying on the grey list has financial implications for the Porkis as the rate of interest on commercial borrowings are increased. Pakistan government has been barred by the world bank from borrowing from its state bank and any borrowings will have to be from its/foreign commercial banks.

Any information on how the future loan/aid disbursements (that are already sanctioned) will be affected if they stay on the grey list?
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Re: Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Post by Shankas »

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