West Asia News and Discussions

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hgupta
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by hgupta »

If the Saudis lose this war with Yemen all knives will be out for the Crown Prince. He was the one that led the Saudis down this path. Other princes nursing their wounds due to their captivity and detainment at the hands of the Crown Prince will be looking for the next available opportunity to pin the debacle on him and force a coup de etat against him and the ailing king.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by vimal »

UlanBatori wrote:The amazing thing is that all those convoys go nicely packed one behind the other along narrow roads surrounded by hillocks. Absolutely no evidence of air cover of any sort. If this ambush etc went on for so long, so close to Saudi borders, where were their vaunted F-15s and F-22s or whatever, and Apaches? The Houthis leisurely picked targets and launched ATGMs, then came in with AK-47s.. until they could do the usual AoA yelling and kneel in prayer quietly. NO evidence of any air support. This is not new: we have seen so much of it.

And Houthis may be overstating with propaganda, but... a few months to 1 year ago they were virtually finished: fighting down in one last pocket, blockaded from the sea, bombed from the air, surrounded by armor and artillery...

Today they hold the capital and most urban centers (what's left other than rubble) and known to be attacking inside KSA. We didn't see tons of propaganda on how this occurred, but things are so bad for the saudis that their Gelf Emirate buddies bombed their proxies, and got out of the war. So I for one am amazed at the Houthis and tend to believe their claims.
This sounds amazing to me too. There were reports all over the place how Saudis war on Yemen was causing mass starvation and deaths. Maybe, Uncle Sam withdrew quietly and no one was left to hold ground.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Rony »

I am not an expert but Saudis losing this war and influence in the region and Iran winning and becoming a hegemon does not look like its good for India. What we need is a balance of power in the middle east where the Saudis, Iranians, Turks fight among themselves and weaken each other without anyone dominating anyone. And we should strongly support Kurds and a independent Kurdistan and Baluchistan wherever we can now that Turks and Iranians are making noise on Kashmir.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by UlanBatori »

^^^ Sounds a bit like East India Company strategy, hain? (Just pointing out not criticizing)
"An engineer who goes to sleep for 2000 years and wakes up will be lost, among today's technological marvels. But a politician who does the same will be perfectly at home and start campaigning immediately".
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by hgupta »

Rony wrote:I am not an expert but Saudis losing this war and influence in the region and Iran winning and becoming a hegemon does not look like its good for India. What we need is a balance of power in the middle east where the Saudis, Iranians, Turks fight among themselves and weaken each other without anyone dominating anyone. And we should strongly support Kurds and a independent Kurdistan and Baluchistan wherever we can now that Turks and Iranians are making noise on Kashmir.
I disagree. This development is good for India because Saudis now realize that Pakistani military assistance is worth crap and needs better friends to work with.

Iran won't be a hegemon in the Middle East. It is practically checked to the east by Pakistan, a sunni majority state and checked by Israel to the west and checked by the US Navy to the south. Saudi is just engaging too much dhoti shivering.

As for Iranians making noise on Kashmir, it is my opinion that they are just paying lip service to maintain a veneer of solidarity with the rest of the Muslim world and nothing else.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by schinnas »

Desperate times call for desperate measures. Pakistan offers ready, trained and willing foot soldiers to Saudi. Even if they don't trust Paki Jarnails, they will hire a ex European gernail and tens of thousands of Paki Ed servicemen (voluntary retirement paki fauji still in their prime fitness). Since Pakis have nothing else to export other than donkey resources (real donkeys and paki fauji), they are likely to grab t with both hands and begging bowl.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by UlanBatori »

paki fauji still in their prime fitness
Oh good! They were doing calisthenics (both arms raised) very well indeed on the video. :mrgreen: Standards have not declined since 1971.
KSA has much more than a problem. Utter defeat in Iraq, utter defeat in Syria, and now Yemen - and for the first time, Karma is coming back across their borders. MBS has amazing endurance to survive this long with such a record. How long will it be before those returning from the front march all the way to the Palace in Riyadh?
BTW, not sure what PakFauj looks like these days, but I saw very few fierce moustaches among the "prisoners". No beards either.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by abhijitm »

UlanBatori wrote:If the Yemen war ends in Saudi disgrace, the Turks are in for it next. I don't think US is going to be too enthused about supporting Turkey.
Saudis have agreed truce/limited cease fire with houthis two days ago. UAE has already declared it is backing down completely. Looks like end of war after 4 years is a good possibility.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by abhijitm »

schinnas wrote:Desperate times call for desperate measures. Pakistan offers ready, trained and willing foot soldiers to Saudi. Even if they don't trust Paki Jarnails, they will hire a ex European gernail and tens of thousands of Paki Ed servicemen (voluntary retirement paki fauji still in their prime fitness). Since Pakis have nothing else to export other than donkey resources (real donkeys and paki fauji), they are likely to grab t with both hands and begging bowl.
Pakistanis are not battle hardened and not even trained to fight war till death. The entire so called soldiers are uniformed mutton chops. Slight sight of death and these paki militia will surrender or run for thei life. And on top of that saudi has imported a paki general who wears medals bought from grocery shop.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by IndraD »

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-midd ... ?r=US&IR=T
US moving its command & control centre of army base out of Qatar
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by UlanBatori »

"practicing moving". As in practicing downhill skiing. To South Carolina which probably has more yahoos than Quatar. Also:
"the NATO officer said that reports from inside the Saudi government supported that a major disaster had befallen the military over in Yemen."
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by schinnas »

Iran attack or not, it makes sense to move all non real time and administrative aspects of command and control center to a location out of harms way. Given that the US communication systems are more resilient against jamming and hacking by Iranians than their physical assets against attack by drones and low flying cruise missiles, and because all of their weapons are network connected, it makes good sense to move the HQ away. However, it would have made sense to move them to Europe where the timezone would be more friendly than to South Carolina where there is very little overlap in terms of time zone.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by CalvinH »

US moving the command center out of ME makes sense if a war with Iran is in plans. Any war with Iran wont be restricted to Iran border but will spread in whole ME with Shia Militias and regimes across the region joining the war on Iran's side.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by IndraD »

Proximity with Iran, advanced technology, shifting army base to US the home, behind moving US base out of Qatar
https://www.stripes.com/news/air-force/ ... a-1.601074
Analysts say that if a conflict with Iran were to break out, it’s likely the combined air and space operations center at Al Udeid could be targeted and there is little guarantee that it could be defended.

“It doesn’t take a whole heap of imagination to look at it and think, if push came to shove and it was a full-blown conflict, it would be one of the priority targets,” said Douglas Barrie, a senior fellow specializing in aerospace at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London.

The bases’ defensive systems, which include Patriot batteries and other high-end missile defenses, are designed mostly to combat planes and ballistic missiles that come in fast and from a high altitude, rather than low-flying cruise missiles and drones like those believed to have been used in the attack on the Saudi oil facilities.

Saltzman said the practicalities of missile defense made complete protection impossible.

“It’s really probably better to think about this as an immune system,” he said. “There’s going to be germs that get into the body. It’s about how fast and how resilient you can fight it off.”

By making the command-and-control operations mobile, the U.S. could rebound from an attack far more quickly. That flexibility also would make the building that houses them at Al Udeid a less valuable target, which would allow them to redeploy air defense systems to other critical infrastructure.

The operation to move the center was the culmination a number of measures that the U.S. has taken to broadcast to the region that its Air Force is not only the world’s strongest — it’s also agile.
“The goodness here is now we’re saving taxpayer dollars that we’re giving back to America,” Coleman said. “And, you know, America’s sons and daughters aren’t abroad in the Middle East. They’re home.”

For Gulf allies that have invested in facilities used by the U.S. in the region, the move might be worrying. Qatar, in particular, has invested heavily on Al Udeid in recent years, spending as much as $1.8 billion to renovate the base, the largest in the region, capable of housing more than 10,000 U.S. troops.

But the combination of resurgent risks and new technology is leading the U.S. to reconsider how much of its operations need to be based abroad.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by UlanBatori »

schinnas wrote:Iran attack or not, it makes sense to move all non real time and administrative aspects of command and control center to a location out of harms way. Given that the US communication systems are more resilient against jamming and hacking by Iranians than their physical assets against attack by drones and low flying cruise missiles, and because all of their weapons are network connected, it makes good sense to move the HQ away. However, it would have made sense to move them to Europe where the timezone would be more friendly than to South Carolina where there is very little overlap in terms of time zone.
Nope. This says that the New Whirled Odor is to fire hypersonic missiles from aerial and naval "platforms". Plus mijjiles from Bredator drones operated from wherever. All controlled by warriors who drive up to work and munch burgers as they press the buttons. And go home with X "kills". I have read of ppl in, say, Oklahoma (or Nebraska, or Mongolia) who have like 1500+ "stars" (each star is a Kill).

Keeps DT's promise to Bring The Troops Home while MAGA. It's just a sign of the times.
Last edited by UlanBatori on 02 Oct 2019 04:27, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by kit »

UlanBatori wrote:The amazing thing is that all those convoys go nicely packed one behind the other along narrow roads surrounded by hillocks. Absolutely no evidence of air cover of any sort. If this ambush etc went on for so long, so close to Saudi borders, where were their vaunted F-15s and F-22s or whatever, and Apaches? The Houthis leisurely picked targets and launched ATGMs, then came in with AK-47s.. until they could do the usual AoA yelling and kneel in prayer quietly. NO evidence of any air support. This is not new: we have seen so much of it.

And Houthis may be overstating with propaganda, but... a few months to 1 year ago they were virtually finished: fighting down in one last pocket, blockaded from the sea, bombed from the air, surrounded by armor and artillery...

Today they hold the capital and most urban centers (what's left other than rubble) and known to be attacking inside KSA. We didn't see tons of propaganda on how this occurred, but things are so bad for the saudis that their Gelf Emirate buddies bombed their proxies, and got out of the war. So I for one am amazed at the Houthis and tend to believe their claims.
Its not the stick that wins you the fight but rather how it is used :mrgreen: . American weapons are designed well and with training AND reasonable tactics they might work given the situation. The Saudi fauji are neither good with the latter two and to expect to win a conflict (with just weapons )and god forbid a war is an ultimate dream. Just imagine that particular scenario if American forces are moving in, the drones and all assorted sensors would have given them a good threat scenario, the commanders would have designed multiple scenarios with fall back options and would achieve their target and moved out before the Houthis even knew what hit them. Can you imagine the Saudis doing that ?.. Frankly the Israelis and Americans would be laughing their collective a$$es off at the saudi debacle. Of course, there is money to be made here, so who s complaining :(( ... the middle east is literally a powderkeg getting drier by the minute and god knows where the spark is going to come from to put the whole region in flames., no one trusts anyone at this point., the Americans are saving their asses at this point and getting back pronto seeing the reading on the wall.. high tech long-range fighting indeed, without boots on the ground you are not going to win or control anything, period . I suspect the UAE might be willing to sit out this fight and let the bro Saudi fight for themselves., Pakis being pakis might as well be playing both sides, after all, their BFF is Turkey. Israelis would be happy to play uncle Sam to fight but Washington is too shy to oblige esp with Trumper holding the fort. All said and done a war is not going to help anyone other than inflamed egos of the Saudis.

Had been reading a few reports that say the situation in Saudi is bad, the Houthis seem to attack inside KSA now with hundreds of Saudis and paki soldiers captured as POWs. The Saudis are literally incapable of any sort of war in the current situation with increasing reports of spillover into internal conflict likely., seems like a bad situation turning worse. None of these, as usual, will come in pro-western media. One just has to look at the actions of the Americans for confirmation and lo and behold there it is.. " we would rather fight from sea and air" we wont "risk any American boots on ground" ha !! ( Bet Putin is grinning from ear to ear ! )
kit
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by kit »

IndraD wrote:Proximity with Iran, advanced technology, shifting army base to US the home, behind moving US base out of Qatar
https://www.stripes.com/news/air-force/ ... a-1.601074
Analysts say that if a conflict with Iran were to break out, it’s likely the combined air and space operations center at Al Udeid could be targeted and there is little guarantee that it could be defended.

“It doesn’t take a whole heap of imagination to look at it and think, if push came to shove and it was a full-blown conflict, it would be one of the priority targets,” said Douglas Barrie, a senior fellow specializing in aerospace at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London.

The bases’ defensive systems, which include Patriot batteries and other high-end missile defenses, are designed mostly to combat planes and ballistic missiles that come in fast and from a high altitude, rather than low-flying cruise missiles and drones like those believed to have been used in the attack on the Saudi oil facilities.

Saltzman said the practicalities of missile defense made complete protection impossible.

“It’s really probably better to think about this as an immune system,” he said. “There’s going to be germs that get into the body. It’s about how fast and how resilient you can fight it off.”

By making the command-and-control operations mobile, the U.S. could rebound from an attack far more quickly. That flexibility also would make the building that houses them at Al Udeid a less valuable target, which would allow them to redeploy air defense systems to other critical infrastructure.

The operation to move the center was the culmination a number of measures that the U.S. has taken to broadcast to the region that its Air Force is not only the world’s strongest — it’s also agile.
“The goodness here is now we’re saving taxpayer dollars that we’re giving back to America,” Coleman said. “And, you know, America’s sons and daughters aren’t abroad in the Middle East. They’re home.”

For Gulf allies that have invested in facilities used by the U.S. in the region, the move might be worrying. Qatar, in particular, has invested heavily on Al Udeid in recent years, spending as much as $1.8 billion to renovate the base, the largest in the region, capable of housing more than 10,000 U.S. troops.

But the combination of resurgent risks and new technology is leading the U.S. to reconsider how much of its operations need to be based abroad.
All that talk of "high tech war " is bull $hit ., if they did why didnt they win the Afghan war in the first place ..lol
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by UlanBatori »

Hi Tech war is not to WIN war, duh! It is to use up weppuns so one can buy more. Winning war is a disaster. Look at WW2: Germany and Japan and even China now own 2/3 of the USA. Including most of of Oahu and Maui. UQ going under German hell anyday now.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by ramana »

Very topical discussion on Iraq.
Note speakers.

https://twitter.com/CH_MENAP/status/117 ... 99617?s=19

Follow the live stream.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by ArjunPandit »

UlanBatori wrote:The amazing thing is that all those convoys go nicely packed one behind the other along narrow roads surrounded by hillocks. Absolutely no evidence of air cover of any sort. If this ambush etc went on for so long, so close to Saudi borders, where were their vaunted F-15s and F-22s or whatever, and Apaches? The Houthis leisurely picked targets and launched ATGMs, then came in with AK-47s.. until they could do the usual AoA yelling and kneel in prayer quietly. NO evidence of any air support. This is not new: we have seen so much of it.

And Houthis may be overstating with propaganda, but... a few months to 1 year ago they were virtually finished: fighting down in one last pocket, blockaded from the sea, bombed from the air, surrounded by armor and artillery...

Today they hold the capital and most urban centers (what's left other than rubble) and known to be attacking inside KSA. We didn't see tons of propaganda on how this occurred, but things are so bad for the saudis that their Gelf Emirate buddies bombed their proxies, and got out of the war. So I for one am amazed at the Houthis and tend to believe their claims.
there were matrix style calls from Bakis or the brigades .."back up, send back up" although the sauds were more like SBI branch managers "Lunch ke baad aana" till that time houthis had their lunch...i think houthis would have planned for that..and that's why MBS didnt send anything for few mercenaries or rusted sword of islam bakis..
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by ramana »

hgupta wrote:If the Saudis lose this war with Yemen all knives will be out for the Crown Prince. He was the one that led the Saudis down this path. Other princes nursing their wounds due to their captivity and detainment at the hands of the Crown Prince will be looking for the next available opportunity to pin the debacle on him and force a coup de etat against him and the ailing king.

Maybe that is why the NSA is visiting KSA today 2 October 2019.

We had a flow chart of Ibn Saud ruling family a few years back.
If some can post would appreciate that!
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by ramana »

Is US shifting Central Command from Qatar a precursor to Vietnam type retreat from West Asia?
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by UlanBatori »

ramana: Note that a few months(?) ago, KSA-Qatar relations were kept below war level only by presence of US base there. But due to worsening US-Iran relations, as KSA's threatening posture is seen to dissolve, maybe Qataris are not too keen on hosting a US base if there are US-Iran hostilities. So this may be just as much about a QuitQatar "request" as a US decision. Nothing else explains the suddenness.
OTOH, If there is a coup in KSA, there may be renewed hostilities involving Qatar.
Finally, US may be keen to get out of anti-Yemen Coalition which has already fragmented. Trouble is "US LEAVING KSA" would be huge news. Like Incirlik AB in Turkey, Prince Bandar AFB or whatever the US has in KSA may be on the road to becoming a liability.
Imagine Gen. Vodkov's Mig-35s flying out of there.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by ramana »

I think.the security if that base us highly.in doubt. Could become Dien Bein Phu of West Asia.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Atmavik »

https://www.businessinsider.com/jeff-be ... ry-2019-10

jeff bezos is attending the vigil for jamal khashoggi in Istanbul. looks like pressure is building on MBS.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by schinnas »

Khashoghi was a Washington Post reporter and Bezos owns WaPo. So he would attend the vigil.

The pressure on MBS is primarily due to him losing every fight he picks. First Qatar and now Yemen.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by SBajwa »

Image




Image

Image
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by CalvinH »

kit wrote: All that talk of "high tech war " is bull $hit ., if they did why didnt they win the Afghan war in the first place ..lol
Tech helped them defeat Saddam's Army and roll up Taliban in few months. No army can stand US offensive in a full frontal war. Even in asymmetric warfare US has improved considerably. Compare the US casualties in AFG to casualties in other similar actions in past.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by hgupta »

CalvinH wrote:
kit wrote: All that talk of "high tech war " is bull $hit ., if they did why didnt they win the Afghan war in the first place ..lol
Tech helped them defeat Saddam's Army and roll up Taliban in few months. No army can stand US offensive in a full frontal war. Even in asymmetric warfare US has improved considerably. Compare the US casualties in AFG to casualties in other similar actions in past.
Nobody can beat the US in a conventional war or even beat US in an asymmetric war without losing a lot. Sure you can beat the US but you will have to sacrifice everything and start all over. North Vietnam defeated the US but its infrastructure and economy was in shambles, its jungle badly poisoned and burned. They had to start all over and rebuild. Look at Iraq and Afghanistan and Libya, recent conflicts that US partook in and see the damage wrought by the US. No sane man would invite the US to a battle knowing that the US would inflict almost unbearable damage and loss upon him.

If you have nothing to lose, sure go ahead and pick a fight with the US. But if you have something to lose and want to protect it, the last thing you want is to get into a fight with the US. That is why I think Iran is poking the bear too strongly. The leadership of Iran must change their thinking and agree to talks with Trump to forestall any possibility of military retaliation even it means losing some face in the process and giving Trump some victory. Because if they don't, Trump, as stupid as he is, can very willing call Iran's cards and deal a massive in a world of hurt against Iran by using aerial strikes and naval bombardment. Even no US soldiers would step on ground in Iran, that kind of military action can damage Iran's infrastructure and economy for a long time.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by UlanBatori »

Hilarious. Reminescent of the Malloostan ricksha-puller / Madama "Did U See My Courage?" story

I thought this was about bare forearms and ankles, but it is not :eek: :oops:
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by kit »

Looks like more restrictions on airlines overflying middle east esp near Iranian airspace, wonder which country might have issued such an advisory ?.. US ?
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Rony »

More Than 100 Killed And Thousands Injured In Anti-Government Protests In Iraq
Protesters, who took to the streets on Tuesday frustrated over joblessness and corruption, have been met with live ammunition from security forces attempting to break up the mass demonstrations that have convulsed Baghdad and parts of southern Iraq for days.
Protesters called for top government officials to step down, as authorities cut of Internet service in Baghdad and across much of the country.

Demonstrators on Sunday also called for Iran to stop meddling in Iraqi politics.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by UlanBatori »

Competition between liars.
Apparently there are over 60,000 "ISIS" prisoners in the "Hol" camp run by the SDF.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by vishvak »

--del--
Last edited by vishvak on 08 Oct 2019 00:37, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Vikas »

hgupta wrote:
Rony wrote:I am not an expert but Saudis losing this war and influence in the region and Iran winning and becoming a hegemon does not look like its good for India. What we need is a balance of power in the middle east where the Saudis, Iranians, Turks fight among themselves and weaken each other without anyone dominating anyone. And we should strongly support Kurds and a independent Kurdistan and Baluchistan wherever we can now that Turks and Iranians are making noise on Kashmir.
I disagree. This development is good for India because Saudis now realize that Pakistani military assistance is worth crap and needs better friends to work with.

Iran won't be a hegemon in the Middle East. It is practically checked to the east by Pakistan, a sunni majority state and checked by Israel to the west and checked by the US Navy to the south. Saudi is just engaging too much dhoti shivering.

As for Iranians making noise on Kashmir, it is my opinion that they are just paying lip service to maintain a veneer of solidarity with the rest of the Muslim world and nothing else.
Let India also pay lip service to suppression of minorities and women in Iran and see how Shia Mullah go on a Rudali act. Iran gets too much of pass on making Anti-India noise. They anyways aren't trustworthy partners and have no honor unlike Arabs. As long as USA is committed to protecting KSA and House of Saud, It will be status quo in & around Arabian gulf.
I agree with Rony that there must be balance of power in ME irrespective of what Saudis think of Pakis. Better to have fragmented ME than one solid block. Pakis will latch onto anyone who can be their sugar daddy.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by mmasand »

Turkey has commenced air strikes over Kurdish checkpoints near the Syria-Iraq border. Heavy arty fire also reported near Semalka.

This is the end of the US conventional wars as we know it, no one will ally with them ever again. Wonder what allies like Egypt, KSA, Israel make of this unilateral withdrawal of US forces by DT.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by hgupta »

Vikas wrote:
hgupta wrote:
I disagree. This development is good for India because Saudis now realize that Pakistani military assistance is worth crap and needs better friends to work with.

Iran won't be a hegemon in the Middle East. It is practically checked to the east by Pakistan, a sunni majority state and checked by Israel to the west and checked by the US Navy to the south. Saudi is just engaging too much dhoti shivering.

As for Iranians making noise on Kashmir, it is my opinion that they are just paying lip service to maintain a veneer of solidarity with the rest of the Muslim world and nothing else.
Let India also pay lip service to suppression of minorities and women in Iran and see how Shia Mullah go on a Rudali act. Iran gets too much of pass on making Anti-India noise. They anyways aren't trustworthy partners and have no honor unlike Arabs. As long as USA is committed to protecting KSA and House of Saud, It will be status quo in & around Arabian gulf.
I agree with Rony that there must be balance of power in ME irrespective of what Saudis think of Pakis. Better to have fragmented ME than one solid block. Pakis will latch onto anyone who can be their sugar daddy.
“ have no honor unlike Arabs”? I’m sorry but Arabs have no honor.

Action not talk. Through action Saudi have proved that they hurt India way more than Iran ever did.
UlanBatori
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by UlanBatori »

Saudis are sneaky terrorist-sponsoring goat-buggers. Iranians are just self-destructive.
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