2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

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vijayk
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by vijayk »

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Karan M
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Karan M »

The Congress has been completely captured by the deracinated Hinduphobic left. Nothing else explains this batshit behavior from a political party.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by vijayk »

Sad thing is there are still dumb Fing idiots who vote for this human garbage
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Vayutuvan »

vijayk
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by vijayk »

https://swarajyamag.com/politics/why-cm ... st-haryana
Why CM Khattar Almost Lost Haryana
In the general elections in May, the BJP took leads in 79 out of 90 Assembly segments in the state. Going into Assembly polls, CM Khattar and his party were so overconfident that they thought their win was certain and the only thing that needed to be decided was whether they will win 60 seats or 75-plus.

In such a scenario, getting 40 is certainly a big jolt and at one point, during counting, trends showed both the BJP and the Congress at 35 each. In fact, Congress lost five seats with a margin of less than 2,550 votes and four of these seats with less than 1,500 votes. If the Congress had won in these areas, it would be at the 36 mark, while BJP at 35.
To blame it on silent Jat consolidation is lazy. There was no special mobilisation against BJP this time. The Jat voter has shown the same disdain he showed to the BJP last time.
Jatland roughly comprises of Assembly segments in Sirsa parliamentary seat on Punjab border to Sonipat and Rohtak on Delhi border through Bhiwani and Hisar seats. This region has 40 Assembly seats. In 2014, both the BJP and Congress took 11 seats each. INLD had won 14.

This time, BJP has won the same number of seats: 11. It lost some seats but gained elsewhere. Overall, it evened out. Congress has increased its tally by four, taking it to 15. INLD got reduced to 1. JJP, which split from INLD, won nine seats. So essentially, Congress benefited from the INLD-JJP split in the Jatland.
In South Haryana, BJP gained one seat. Out of 23 total seats, it won 15 this time compared to Congress’ 6 which also increased its tally by 2 seats. The big loser was INLD which won four seats in 2014 but neither INLD nor JJP could open an account here this time.
Let’s now come to the GT road belt where BJP won in a landslide in 2014, winning 22 out of 27 seats. This area is one of the most prosperous in Haryana because major cities such as Karnal, Kurukshetra, Panipat, Ambala, Panchkula and Yamunanagar come under this belt.

Except in Panipat district, the Jat factor is almost negligible here.

This is where the BJP has stumbled big time. It could win only 14 seats, 8 less than what it won in the previous electio
n. Congress gained at the cost of BJP, increasing its tally from 1 to 9.
The above is a region-wise analysis. But the loss in GT road belt could’ve been compensated by right candidate selection and winning some seats elsewhere. The party gave complete control to CM Khattar in this area but he seems to have bungled it up.
Many BJP supporters (both online and offline) started treating CM Khattar as the Modi of Haryana. The short-lived success of anti-Jat politics was seen as an achievement and approval of his policies.

The triumph of PM Modi in Haryana was viewed as also an endorsement of CM Khattar’s personality.

It is the result of such miscalculation that he ended up doing 77 rallies across the state — covering almost every constituency. Before the candidates were announced, he went on a 22-day Jan Ashirwad Yatra canvassing for himself throughout the state.

This branding around CM Khattar proved to be a bad strategy. As the results proved, he is no Modi.

There are many important lessons he and the BJP will need to learn from this as they kickstart their second term. Alliance with Chautalas means that it will have to throw its Jat versus non-Jat strategy into the dustbin. The biggest challenge for it now is how to keep its non-Jat vote bank happy — especially Brahmins, Banias and Yadavs.

The BJP hasn’t done well in reserved constituencies too. Out of 17 SC seats, it won only five, four less than last time. The BJP can’t afford to upset both Jats and Dalits. These combined with Muslims comprise 50 per cent of the electorate.

The party will have to go back to the drawing board and reorient its caste strategy in Haryana.

The first step is learning the right lessons from the setback. Jats and Jatland have nothing to do with this. The party and state leadership must take all the blame for bad politics, below par performance of the government and banking on dubious strategies.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by abhik »

Gyan wrote:When will we end our honey moon with duplicitous Chinese?
Kakkaji wrote:When we become powerful enough, to the point where the Chinese worry more about a conflict on the border than we do.
UlanBatori wrote:When Indian products beat Chinese on both quality and price.
Let me try - When we grow a pair?
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Santosh »

#GauravPradhan IN @DrGPradhan· Oct 26
I second it @AmitShah ji

Enough of @shivsena blackmailing

Quote Tweet
Minhaz Merchant @MinhazMerchant · Oct 26
BJP should call @ShivSena’s bluff, refuse rotational CM demand, form minority govt without Sena, lose confidence motion if Sena votes with opposition, let governor’s rule be imposed for 6 mths, fight midterm election on all 288 seats & form a majority govt. Make. A. Clean. Break.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Sachin »

Politics Live | BJP, Shiv Sena leaders to separately meet Maharashtra Governor
Looks the "communals v/s communals" fight is getting ugly. The "secular" main stream media is in a happy mood. Every one thought Haryana was a tougher challenge, but that was not the case. MH seems to be the trouble spot now.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Gyan »

UlanBatori wrote:When Indian products beat Chinese on both quality and price.
Chinese Industry is all State protected, gets free capital, cheap electricity & subsidised logistics plus back stop from domestic market. No one can beat them without imposing minimum customs duty of 40% to 80%
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

Karan M wrote:The Congress has been completely captured by the deracinated Hinduphobic left. Nothing else explains this batshit behavior from a political party.
Why exactly are we surprised.

If we remember that the congress was a party started by foreigners to control, direct and channelize the natives in directions favorable to the britshits, artfully present objectives to further and reinforce the colonial britshit rule and inculcate through subversive education, an active hatred towards all things Indian, and revere all things foreign as eminently desirable.

The tools that were so effectively used then and are being used actively even today are common and they are leftist propaganda impregnated deeply in the educational system and FFNGOs to propagate the anti native counter narrative agenda exemplified by the proselytizing church.

Among the prominent native coconuts that were coopted early were people like MKG, JLN and the islamic elite that pined for a return of their hegemonistic feudal rule, seen as their inalienable birthright claimed by the power of their alleged writ that ran unchallenged and uninterrupted for centuries, as they deludedly claimed.

The islamic elites fully expected the britshits to install them on the gaddi before the britshits departed.

The fascination with white skin as personified by a transplanted eyetalian family ruling over the natives, a family that partially descended from european fascists and the followers of hitler, a rag tag family that sets no store in intellectual accomplishment has successfully done what even the most powerful queen of the imperial britshit empire could not do post WWII, that is to rule over India.

And cunningly, they have managed to camouflage their european origins and lay claim to political power by now parading their Indian connections and have entrenched themselves by spawning a huge army of native supporters by the tried and tested ancient methods employed and indeed refined by the mughals and perfected by the britshits, ie honors and jagirdars.

Exactly like the britshit queen announces birthday honors (KBE, CBE etc) and creates life peerages our equivalents would be the padma awards etc and membership of the RS and lucrative directorships of various companies.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

Sachin wrote:Politics Live | BJP, Shiv Sena leaders to separately meet Maharashtra Governor
Looks the "communals v/s communals" fight is getting ugly. The "secular" main stream media is in a happy mood. Every one thought Haryana was a tougher challenge, but that was not the case. MH seems to be the trouble spot now.

This is probably to head off presidents rule just in case the BJP faces a confidence vote and fails to prove the majority.

The SS is doing this because they want to be called next to prove their majority.

the fine hand of supporters of the cross border mafia seems to be at play. The SS simply does not have the testimonials to take the lead and also strike up such an alliance without losing heavily in terms of pawer sharing.

If the congis come in, they risk losing their sickular votes and that will allow many muslim parties to open their accounts and also ensure the fragmentation of the sickular congi vote banks.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by abhijitm »

chetak wrote: This is probably to head off presidents rule just in case the BJP faces a confidence vote and fails to prove the majority.
There won't be presidential rule. NCP and Cong will support SS to form the government. UT is so much determined to make his son CM he will take that support.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Sachin »

abhijitm wrote:There won't be presidential rule. NCP and Cong will support SS to form the government. UT is so much determined to make his son CM he will take that support.
The BJP should then bite the bullet. Allow the making of a Kumara Swamy out of Jr. Udhav. The advantage would be that Shiv Sena would also completely lose out on its pro-Hindutwa image and it would be tough for them to regain that. Shiv Sena will lose credibility and it would even peter out in MH itself. There would be a sizeable cadre in Shiv Sena who can easily adopt to the BJP ideology. Allow Udhav Thackeray to achieve his highest goal (his son as CM) for once; then allow him to sink his party completely :D.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

Sachin wrote:
abhijitm wrote:There won't be presidential rule. NCP and Cong will support SS to form the government. UT is so much determined to make his son CM he will take that support.
The BJP should then bite the bullet. Allow the making of a Kumara Swamy out of Jr. Udhav. The advantage would be that Shiv Sena would also completely lose out on its pro-Hindutwa image and it would be tough for them to regain that. Shiv Sena will lose credibility and it would even peter out in MH itself. There would be a sizeable cadre in Shiv Sena who can easily adopt to the BJP ideology. Allow Udhav Thackeray to achieve his highest goal (his son as CM) for once; then allow him to sink his party completely :D.
this is a subterfuge for UT to rule.

He will be the pawar hungry remote control
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by syam »

In next 5 years, things might change drastically. Shivsena might survive it and also thakarey III will get 5 years cm experience. Really want to see how that will turn out.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

in the meanwhile pappu is droning on


twitter

India's strength is Small & Medium businesses & the informal sector. If you support these sectors & if you take these small & medium businesses & convert them into large businesses you will get jobs: Shri @RahulGandhi


https://twitter.com/INCIndia/status/1188674249642217477
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

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UlanBatori
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by UlanBatori »

Gyan wrote:
UlanBatori wrote:When Indian products beat Chinese on both quality and price.
Chinese Industry is all State protected, gets free capital, cheap electricity & subsidised logistics plus back stop from domestic market. No one can beat them without imposing minimum customs duty of 40% to 80%
Hain ji, clearly u have not dealt with State Baink of India (US branches) recently. I thought Sehwag was spot-on with
Lunch Ke baad aana
But I was horribly wrong. The correct command should have been
Please give phone numbaar and I will contact you Later In The Day
Except... not WHICH day. That does not take State subsidy (they have it). It takes a swift kick in the u no where. And that is the fundamental underlying problem with Indian Quality. Where the kick is likely, quality is excellent. In China they simply use Gobi Le-Education Centel or filing squad.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Karthik S »

Anshika Shukla @anshikashukla_1h
Not a word on the Aligarh 2.5 yr old baby murder and mutilation case.
But lot of concern here. Why such selective sensitivities and sympathies?!
Don't the lives of some children matter at all?!
Are some more precious because of political necessities?!
Quote Tweet

ANI @ANI · 1h
Prime Minister Narendra Modi: My prayers are with the young and brave #SujithWilson. Spoke to CM Edappadi K Palaniswami regarding the rescue efforts underway to save Sujith. Every effort is being made to ensure that he is safe. (file pic)
Swati Goel Sharma @swati_gs· Jul 29
After this tweet, I have received calls from several people close to the ruling party, requesting me for details and promising help. Will update you all when this family gets some compensation. They need it badly.

To all those who reached out to me, I am glad you took note of it
Quote Tweet

Swati Goel Sharma @swati_gs · Jul 26
Sir @mlkhattar, she is Kiranbala, widow of Inderpal, a farmer who was killed by cattle thieves in Hisar a year ago. The poor family told me they got nothing in compensation.

Sir u gave 5 lakh to Rakbar Khan who was a chargesheeted cattle thief. Why nothing for this poor family?
Show this thread
Swati Goel Sharma
@swati_gs
People who got in touch with me for this case in July, eventually did nothing. I have been following up with them. With the same CM back in power in Haryana, I guess they won't care about it anymore. Sigh
3:00 PM · Oct 28, 2019·Twitter for Android
209
Retweets
393
Likes
Swati Goel Sharma @swati_gs · 2h
Replying to @swati_gs
Just reiterating, those who told me they would help the victims were from BJP or close to BJP.
snake oil salesman saffron party.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by CRamS »

On BJP-SS spat, its now very clear the SS louts are determined to play spoiler. I hope BJP comes out as the principled party and does not give in. I know power is the ultimate aphrodisiac to quote of all people, Henry Kissinger, but in the long run, BJP liberating itself from these SS thugs will be a good thing and will win people's confidence IMO.

I am wondering if BJP can form govt even by letting SS go. Because BJP has 105, SS has 56, and Pappu & Co have 54. That means there are still 73 independents for the taking. And BJP needs only 39 of those 73 to get to the magic # of 144. Not possible?

I would love to see a Pappu and SS govt. Will demonstrate to the entire country what a bunch of disgusting, dynastic, opportunistic, anti-national clowns these 2 parties are who profess opposite ideologies, but come together just for the lust of power to keep BJP out.

And I wonder what elite Muslims would think of such an alliance? Will they forgive Pappu? Or will they look at it as the necessity of sleeping with the devil (SS) in the hope that in the long run, they can defeat both devil and the greater 'evil' (BJP)? So they will wink, wink, nod, nod just like they did when Pappu was on his temple hopping yatra during Gujarat elections and declared himself thread-wearing Brahmin Hindu?
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by KJo »

syam wrote:In next 5 years, things might change drastically. Shivsena might survive it and also thakarey III will get 5 years cm experience. Really want to see how that will turn out.
I think it was a mistake to go into an alliance without working out who gets what if you win. Now it's back to fighting and UT making taunts about the economy. I now feel maybe BJP should have gone into the elections alone like last time and then looked for partners based on the result. In hindsight tying up with SS seems like a bad idea.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by KJo »

CRamS wrote:On BJP-SS spat, its now very clear the SS louts are determined to play spoiler. I hope BJP comes out as the principled party and does not give in. I know power is the ultimate aphrodisiac to quote of all people, Henry Kissinger, but in the long run, BJP liberating itself from these SS thugs will be a good thing and will win people's confidence IMO.

I am wondering if BJP can form govt even by letting SS go. Because BJP has 105, SS has 56, and Pappu & Co have 54. That means there are still 73 independents for the taking. And BJP needs only 39 of those 73 to get to the magic # of 144. Not possible?

I would love to see a Pappu and SS govt. Will demonstrate to the entire country what a bunch of disgusting, dynastic, opportunistic, anti-national clowns these 2 parties are who profess opposite ideologies, but come together just for the lust of power to keep BJP out.

And I wonder what elite Muslims would think of such an alliance? Will they forgive Pappu? Or will they look at it as the necessity of sleeping with the devil (SS) in the hope that in the long run, they can defeat both devil and the greater 'evil' (BJP)? So they will wink, wink, nod, nod just like they did when Pappu was on his temple hopping yatra during Gujarat elections and declared himself thread-wearing Brahmin Hindu?
Yes, I think BJP should be the principled party and not descend to Congress levels to cling to power. If they cannot cobble up a majority without compromising, they should let Cong + NCP run the state for some time.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by syam »

KJo wrote: I think it was a mistake to go into an alliance without working out who gets what if you win. Now it's back to fighting and UT making taunts about the economy. I now feel maybe BJP should have gone into the elections alone like last time and then looked for partners based on the result. In hindsight tying up with SS seems like a bad idea.
In last elections, shivsena leaders targeted modiji. shiv sainiks on ground pissed off with that. they had to tone down it. Unlike ncp and congis, ss can't survive without the cadres. it will be certain suicide for them if they ditch bjp and join congress. remember raj thakarey. I almost forgot him. on other hand, thakarey family is desperate to sit on some big chair. since bala saheb death, they never got the oppertunity. if they don't bargain for it, they will definitely lose relevance.

best bet for them is, letting bjp groom thakarey III. i don't think even that will save the party. that dude has no rw bone in him. every rw leader goes through certain phase in life that will define his whole person. these newbies don't want any bad stuff happen to them.

this is new trend in indian politics. death of regional parties. jds , tdp already done parties. ss ,and tmc in the queue now. future going to be bjp vs anti-bjp.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by kit »

Gyan wrote:
UlanBatori wrote:When Indian products beat Chinese on both quality and price.
Chinese Industry is all State protected, gets free capital, cheap electricity & subsidised logistics plus back stop from domestic market. No one can beat them without imposing minimum customs duty of 40% to 80%
Nothing can be free for long. Its not a viable long term economic model. , is it?

By extension how long can China subsidize an economic growth on the back of supported enterprises and how can they be a part of FTAs if they continue to do so?

Western capitalism had benefitted from exporting their entire manufacturing to China., and "capitalism" itself is on the way to oblivion the way it was. Markets are not free any more there must be a cost to access it and here is where India should play it right. Does being a part of FTA beneficial or not, some hard checks need to be done., and done right.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Vikas »

Both SS and Cong+NCP are desperate to be in power, SS wants CMship for Junior while Congress++ wants source of money.
I don't think that all these players would think even for a moment before joining hands if it was feasible.
Do you think Congress really thinks about future and Muslim vote bank or Islamists would really care if they get freebees.
Its a cat and mouse game and one of the Non-BJP party may split. After all anything is possible in Mumbai.

I don't think BJP would want to go in for another election in next 6 months. Elections by nature are uncertain and unleash forces which can not be controlled. Lot of pundits including moi were expecting land slide (220+) for NDA but nooooo, it wasn't going to be. We discounted Kaka factor.
I think BJP+SS will form the govt and SS will go back to being a nagging wife and a bickering partner.

PS: It would be silly to let Congress anywhere near the power in Mah.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by hanumadu »

I don't get this 50/50 partnership. Wasn't it always the party with the highest seats gets the CM ship? If they were so keen on 50/50, why did SS agree to contest of far fewer seats than BJP? Right there they admitted they are the junior partner. They are just bargaining for some meaty ministries and will probably settle for one or two key ministries.
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2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Peregrine »

45 Sena MLAs want to be part of Maha govt with BJP: Sanjay Kakade

MUMBAI: BJP MP Sanjay Kakade on Tuesday claimed that around 45 newly elected Shiv Sena MLAs inMaharashtra are keen on government formation by joining hands with the BJP.

The Rajya Sabha member made the claim while speaking to a television channel, amid the ongoing tussle between the ruling allies over forming the next state government.

The BJP and the Sena, which won 105 and 56 seats, respectively, in the just concluded state Assembly polls, are locked in a bitter battle over sharing of power.

"Out of 56, there are 45 MLAs who have expressed their interest in government formation along with the BJP. They are calling and asking us to induct them into the government," Kakade told the TV channel.

He added that the Sena MLAs have been saying "do whatever, but we want to be part of the government with BJP".

However, when contacted, Kakade told PTI that the 45 MLAs were of the opinion that the BJP and Sena should join hands for government formation.

As the BJP's tally went down in the October 21 state Assembly elections, compared to its 2014 performance, the Sena has been raising a pitch for "equal sharing" of power.

Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray last week reminded the BJP of the 50:50 formula "agreed upon" between himself, BJP presidentAmit Shah and Fadnavis ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.

On Saturday, the Sena demanded a written assurance from the BJP for implementing "equal formula for sharing of power" before holding talks on staking the claim to form the next alliance government in the state.

In the recent polls to 288-member Assembly, the BJP won 105 seats, a loss of 17 seats compared to its 2014 tally.

The Sena's tally also came down to 56 seats from 63 in 2014. A resurgent NCP won 54 and the Congress bagged 44 seats.

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by ramana »

hanumadu wrote:I don't get this 50/50 partnership. Wasn't it always the party with the highest seats gets the CM ship? If they were so keen on 50/50, why did SS agree to contest of far fewer seats than BJP? Right there they admitted they are the junior partner. They are just bargaining for some meaty ministries and will probably settle for one or two key ministries.

If I were advising Amit Shah, which I am in no position to advice, I would suggest breaking up Shiv Sena and carry out multiple raids for the criminal offenses and for intimidating Bihari migrant workers.
Bihar elections will be coming up soon.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by UlanBatori »

^+
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Karthik S »

ramana wrote:
hanumadu wrote:I don't get this 50/50 partnership. Wasn't it always the party with the highest seats gets the CM ship? If they were so keen on 50/50, why did SS agree to contest of far fewer seats than BJP? Right there they admitted they are the junior partner. They are just bargaining for some meaty ministries and will probably settle for one or two key ministries.

If I were advising Amit Shah, which I am in no position to advice, I would suggest breaking up Shiv Sena and carry out multiple raids for the criminal offenses and for intimidating Bihari migrant workers.
Bihar elections will be coming up soon.
SS has a core voter base, wouldn't BJP be alienating that segment rather permanently if it took such an action?
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Santosh »

There is no need to do any of that. Shiv Sena is digging itself into a hole. The Sena MPs don't want to risk another election and will prefer to stay in govt for 5 years. But UT sees this as an opportunity to impose AT on Maha. I am sure lot of core Sena voters either don't like it or are ambivalent. Raut finally said today that Sena doesn't want to do the paap of forming govt with non-ideological partners. ALso it will be against the mandate. Their options are narrowing and their MLAs may be getting restless. UT will have to cave in eventually and Shah will offer him a olive branch to save face.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Vayutuvan »

UlanBatori wrote:^+
"SS is PITA" - my chaiwaalla's cushtamar who is a "who is who".
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

ramana wrote:
hanumadu wrote:I don't get this 50/50 partnership. Wasn't it always the party with the highest seats gets the CM ship? If they were so keen on 50/50, why did SS agree to contest of far fewer seats than BJP? Right there they admitted they are the junior partner. They are just bargaining for some meaty ministries and will probably settle for one or two key ministries.

If I were advising Amit Shah, which I am in no position to advice, I would suggest breaking up Shiv Sena and carry out multiple raids for the criminal offenses and for intimidating Bihari migrant workers.
Bihar elections will be coming up soon.
UT already knows that one of the more probable outcomes of his brinkmanship is an SS split and the defection of large numbers of his cadres to the BJP which is why he is unable to precipitate any crisis.


UT is now bargaining hard for the deputy CM's post and also for more than his share of heavyweight ministries at the state and center.

AT is the mukhota. It is actually UT who wants control. BMC already provides the ready cash for the SS. He now wants control over other parts of the state and also to head off the many more coming debilitating strikes that fadnavis will quickly carry out as follow through to his earlier surgical strikes. Fadnavis has already denuded the pawarful people and the congi goonda gangs of almost all their pawar in the APMC syndicates, sugar mill syndicates as well as the coop banks that form the triumvirate of the rural pawar structure.

UT is looking to replace or duplicate the management style, structure and objectives of the pawarful people. He is eyeing the vacuum created by fadnavis's first term quiet and sustained cleanup of the traditional and entrenched rural politico-economic infrastructure and environment and UT covets the huge benefits potential for disbursing patronage as well as largesse in the hinterland and the consequent opportunities for the SS to grow organically.

There is plenty money in them thar boondocks.

Hobnobbing with the pawarful people, as UT has done of late, may also mean that he has been seriously sounded out about blunting Fadnavis's earlier surgical strikes as well as the yet to materialize follow throughs that will surely come.

Again, some quarters are saying that with the numbers of rebel marathas who jumped ship to the BJP and contested on BJP tickets during the recent elections, the BJP has polled more than 50% of the maratha vote and is no longer seen as an anti maratha party but as a party with a wide pan maharashtra appeal.

Most of the rebel maratha candidates may not have won but the tag of anti maratha has been removed from the BJP.

So, would "little brother" UT be willing to tangle with the BJP for the same vote bank and risk another election. One would think not.

The huge north Indian + non MH state vote bank in urban MH is anyway not with the SS.
Vikas
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Vikas »

SS is no push over and then there is that some fragmented voter base from NCP+Cong which may align with SS once these 2 parties end up 6 feet under in Maha.
So why not start acting like a true opposition party and occupy the space. Who knows we will end up with Saffron V/s deep shade of saffron in Maha.
The only problem is that Political parties in India tend to take of green while chasing that 'Never-to-be-found' Votebank.

I don't think SS can go with NCP+Cong simply because that may excite Congoon voters (they don't care who the party aligns with), but would push core SS voters away for good.
Unlike the casteist parties in UP/Bihar or dominant ones in TN/WB/J&K whose sole purpose is to get into power by hook or crook, Ideology still plays part for SS.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

Vikas wrote:SS is no push over and then there is that some fragmented voter base from NCP+Cong which may align with SS once these 2 parties end up 6 feet under in Maha.
So why not start acting like a true opposition party and occupy the space. Who knows we will end up with Saffron V/s deep shade of saffron in Maha.
The only problem is that Political parties in India tend to take of green while chasing that 'Never-to-be-found' Votebank.

I don't think SS can go with NCP+Cong simply because that may excite Congoon voters (they don't care who the party aligns with), but would push core SS voters away for good.
Unlike the casteist parties in UP/Bihar or dominant ones in TN/WB/J&K whose sole purpose is to get into power by hook or crook, Ideology still plays part for SS.
The limited options of the pawarful people are open for all to see.

The once stealthily whispered about cross border linkages have now spilled out into the open with the documentary proof.

This is sedition and plain treason by top management. Modi himself has spoken about it in the run up to the recent MH elections.

the padma award was an olive branch that was proferred by the BJP.

It doesn't seem to have worked so the BJP has moved to option two : the sword strike.

We don't know yet as to which of the 3 swords of Shivaji Maharaj has been unsheathed now, the Bhawani, the Tulja or the Jagdamba.

The SS maybe only a bit player in this drama.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by darshhan »

This is a classic negotiating tactic used by Shiv Sena. CM post will never be given to them. However using CMship as pretext they want heavy ministries. Now BJP should never give them ministries such as Water resources and Irrigation, PWD etc. These are the ministries that create a direct impact on people and also give the perception of development happening(or not happening). Home ministry will anyways be under the BJP CM himself. Maybe BJP can give Finance ministry in addition deputy CM post to Shiv sena.

One thing is pretty clear. Development is the priority for BJP and not Shiv Sena. Their priority is corruption and making money as far as participating in this govt is concerned. BMC itself is a stellar example of Shiv Sena's corruption and incompetence.

In some cases Shiv Sena is worse than even NCP. NCP atleast worked for their strongholds like Baramati and satara. Their work is visible there. Shiv Sena couldn't do anything for Mumbai also. Whatever work is happening in Mumbai is now due to efforts of Fadnavis and earlier Gadkari.
Last edited by darshhan on 30 Oct 2019 12:31, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by pankajs »

KJo wrote:
syam wrote:In next 5 years, things might change drastically. Shivsena might survive it and also thakarey III will get 5 years cm experience. Really want to see how that will turn out.
I think it was a mistake to go into an alliance without working out who gets what if you win. Now it's back to fighting and UT making taunts about the economy. I now feel maybe BJP should have gone into the elections alone like last time and then looked for partners based on the result. In hindsight tying up with SS seems like a bad idea.
Yes things will change drastically for the Shivsena when it ties up with NCP+CON. Does anyone believe that the NCP+CON will not force some sort of pro-muslim policies on such a government?

If my thinking serves me right, SS main calling card was being right of the "right wing" BJP. Where will these "right of the BJP" carder and voter take shelter hainji? Simple arithmetic and logic simply does not work when it comes to people else the economist would be the richest people in the world as a group! And their not being the richest should tell us something.

Hindsight is 20:20 and BJP top brass know more about the ground situation than we do. There is a churn happening in Maharashtra and BJP decided to pool resources with SS to take on the combined might of NCP and CON. Let us not forget, last election everyone fought independently. BJP may not have wanted to risk taking on NCP+CON alone. These little facts make a lot of difference in strategy.

SS nuisance value was in full flow all through the last term too. Nothing new in that except a more aggressive posturing now.

BTW, Dy CM is not constitutional role and has no power except what is delegated to it by the CM/Cabinet. The real fight is for what is perceived to the the juicy departments.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Vikas »

Bottom line, NCP/Cong should not even be seen breathing anywhere near Mantralya.
That SS will remain a pesky partner is given, especially now that T-clan member is a MLA, so scoring brownie points is given.
Sivaji did not build his kingdom with couple of victories. It took monumental effort to get Malech out of ruling south of Narmada.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

pankajs wrote:
KJo wrote:
I think it was a mistake to go into an alliance without working out who gets what if you win. Now it's back to fighting and UT making taunts about the economy. I now feel maybe BJP should have gone into the elections alone like last time and then looked for partners based on the result. In hindsight tying up with SS seems like a bad idea.
Yes things will change drastically for the Shivsena when it ties up with NCP+CON. Does anyone believe that the NCP+CON will not force some sort of pro-muslim policies on such a government?

If my thinking serves me right, SS main calling card was being right of the "right wing" BJP. Where will these "right of the BJP" carder and voter take shelter hainji? Simple arithmetic and logic simply does not work when it comes to people else the economist would be the richest people in the world as a group! And their not being the richest should tell us something.

Hindsight is 20:20 and BJP top brass know more about the ground situation than we do. There is a churn happening in Maharashtra and BJP decided to pool resources with SS to take on the combined might of NCP and CON. Let us not forget, last election everyone fought independently. BJP may not have wanted to risk taking on NCP+CON alone. These little facts make a lot of difference in strategy.

SS nuisance value was in full flow all through the last term too. Nothing new in that except a more aggressive posturing now.

BTW, Dy CM is not constitutional role and has no power except what is delegated to it by the CM/Cabinet. The real fight is for what is perceived to the the juicy departments.
this is footpath politics of the SS being played out in the open.

Whatever demands for power sharing were raised by the SS would have been dismissed out of hand by the BJP and not having the testicular fortitude to go it alone, the SS backed off.

Now, they see an opportunity to insult, embarrass, humiliate and demean the BJP and its leadership and they are going for it.

Neither fadnavis nor AS is given to lying, unlike the SS leadership, so the SS tried to portray both of them as liars and after keeping quiet for many days, fadnavis spoke out yesterday in unmistakable terms.

SS has already seriously damaged itself in this entire sorry episode by its unscrupulous and unprincipled naked play for dominant political power, without the numbers or the mandate, using some unverifiable and mythical promise made by someone to his father is seen as exploitative of the hard work, effective delivery and the dedicated efforts made by the BJP and its dedicated cadres under fadnavis.

If such a promise had indeed been made to the father, it ought to have been articulated in the full glare of the light from the funeral pyre and that would have carried not only tremendous weight with the cadres and voters but also rock solid credibility with the emotional marathas and quite possibly, they would have already got their SS CM a long time ago.

I hope that the SS does not obtain power by aligning with some predatory parties in the same way as jinnah did and got his "moth eaten pakiland" and 70 odd years later, the unmistakable results of that ill advised power grab are there for the entire world to see.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by pankajs »

https://theprint.in/politics/shiv-sena- ... vt/313019/
Shiv Sena could ‘split and 24 MLAs join BJP’ if Uddhav Thackeray decides not to join govt
The Shiv Sena MLAs are angry as they are well aware that their chief will have to back down from his stand and support the BJP to form the government. The key to power lies in the hands of Thackeray, a fact he is well aware of.

“Why take such a grandiose stand when Uddhavji himself knows that ultimately we have to go with the BJP,” a senior Shiv Sena leader who was a minister in the previous government told ThePrint. “If Uddhavji decides to stay out of power, at least 24 MLAs will join the BJP. We are not in the mood to sit in Opposition.”

<snip>

The Shiv Sena will not accept anything less than the 50:50 formula,” Raote told the media after his meeting with the Governor. “We want it in writing from the BJP that they will give the Shiv Sena the CM’s post after two-and-a-half years.”

Speaking to ThePrint, writer and political commentator Prakash Akolkar said, “This is payback time for Uddhav. He has realised that the BJP cannot form a government without his party. He is paying the BJP back for all the humiliation they have heaped on him in the last five years.”

The Shiv Sena MLAs want power. So Uddhav will have to choose power. If he does not, the Shiv Sena will split,” added Akolkar, whose book Jai Maharashtra is a biography on the Shiv Sena.
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