2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

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SRajesh
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by SRajesh »

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 961007.cms
How the heck did this happen??
If I ask for OCI I am asked to prove the ID of Grand-dad and grand-mammy!!!
How the %$£** did this half-pissfuls acquire OCI card!!! :eek: :eek:
Who gave the clearance. :roll:
Now revoking would appear as 'revenge politics' as the opposition n his mammy would likely to claim
She will go to town with this and get her LOOTY-N Liberandus media to holler :((
In the same vein a pooch: what is Sania Mirza's son's nationality???
Should we ask or it is too sensitive to ask??? any opinion as to what the nationality law says on this? :roll:
Does Indian nationality accorded by birth or are there any restrictions!!!
Any legal-eagle on the forum??
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by nachiket »

hanumadu wrote:Why would Pawar and Congress not support ShivSena? They are under attack by BJP and their leaders are all looking at jail time, especially the very top brass of congress. By breaking SS away from BJP, more than Maharashtra, they would be taking away a big chunk of the Lok Sabha seats in 2024.
If Cong joins hands with SS, the timing might be a little troublesome for them. Just last year, Sanjay Raut (yes the same motormouth) had made the claim that it was Shiv Sainiks who demolished the babri masjid! And went on to demand that the Modi government should enact a law to build the Ram temple there. Would be funny if the congis decide to get into bed with them just as the Ram Janmabhoomi verdict is coming out. The verbal gymnastics that the congi media shills would have to employ to turn the Shiv Sena into a "secular" party overnight would be hilarious.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by nachiket »

Atri ji has explained the Shiv Sena perfectly on his twitter account. Unfortunately he does not post here anymore so I'm copying his tweets here.
https://twitter.com/Kal_Chiron/status/1 ... 7924301824

More
Shivsena has more ideological flexibility than BJP.

1. They can swing to progressive liberal avatar of Prabodhankar Thackeray.

Or

2. They can swing to anti-commie secular Marathi Manus narrative of pre Shahbano Bal Thackeray

Or

3. They can swing to post Shahbano Hinduhriday samrat Bal Thackeray
https://twitter.com/Kal_Chiron/status/1 ... 9608055809

By switching to position 1, they can easily ally with INC (they were propped up by INC in first place)

By switching to position 2, they can easily ally with MNS, NCP type parties which are local in nature. No national ambition

By switching to position 3, they can ally with BJP
Basically a party of opportunists who used Hindutva as a tool just like they used other stuff at different times. But it provides diminishing returns now because BJP owns that space.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by khatvaanga »

Not sure if this is the right thread hence apologies in advance.
Law aiding Monsanto is reason for Delhi’s annual smoke season
https://www.sundayguardianlive.com/news ... QY.twitter

From the article
Until a few years ago, when farmers in Punjab burnt the remnants of the rice crops in their fields in preparation for sowing wheat, the smoke from such fires was confined to Punjab. Back then, farmers burnt the straw in late September and early October.

snip

However, in recent years, farmers have delayed the burning until late October.

This delay is crucial and responsible for the smoke being carried all the way to Delhi. An analysis of the wind flow patterns reveals that wind blows into Delhi primarily from the west during the monsoon season, but changes direction in October when it starts blowing into Delhi from the north.

snip

Before this law was passed, the problem in Delhi was limited to vehicular and industrial pollution, apart from smoke from bonfires in winter, and there were no reports of the entire metropolitan area being enveloped by smoke.

snip

The group that has been primarily responsible for exerting pressure to move away from growing rice in the name of “crop diversification” is the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), which operates out of the American embassy. Over a period of several years, it has used the excuse of preventing the decline of groundwater to push this agenda. USAID has a worldwide reputation of behaving like a front group for American multinational corporations such as Monsanto.

It should, therefore, come as no surprise that Monsanto will be the primary beneficiary of USAID’s purported solution for Punjab’s problems. According to their solution, farmers need to stop growing rice and replace it with Monsanto’s genetically modified (GMO) maize.
snip



In 2012, the then Punjab Chief Minister asked Monsanto to set up a research centre for creating maize seeds and announced plans to reduce the area under the cultivation of rice by around 45% in order to grow maize.

Today, farmers burn the residual straw from the cultivation of rice as it is an affordable method of clearing the fields. A ban on such burning will destroy the livelihood of poorer farmers and give way to industrial farming, with a few large corporations such as Monsanto taking over all the land and resources.

snip

For now, a step that should be taken immediately in order to prevent Delhi from becoming a gas chamber for several days every November, is to revoke what should rightfully be called the Monsanto Profit Act of 2009 and permit farmers to sow their rice crop whenever they deem it fit to do so.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by abhijitm »

There is a stalemate is MH. Four major parties are too much for any state. So no single party can form gov on its own. Even if new election is held again all parties will come up with more or less same tally. SS has firmly realized this. Their plan look clear, go with whichever party is ready to give them power as their voter base is secured for now.

This also means probably we saw the last election of bjp-ss alliance. No point in fighting joint election from now on , otherwise SS will start taking political gains at bjp's expense.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by ShyamSP »

abhijitm wrote:There is a stalemate is MH. Four major parties are too much for any state. So no single party can form gov on its own. Even if new election is held again all parties will come up with more or less same tally. SS has firmly realized this. Their plan look clear, go with whichever party is ready to give them power as their voter base is secured for now.

This also means probably we saw the last election of bjp-ss alliance. No point in fighting joint election from now on , otherwise SS will start taking political gains at bjp's expense.
In this elections if BJP and SS were to fight alone, Pawar or his daughter would have been Maharastra CM easily. Rahul G would have had opportunity to come a bit north from "way" south for next elections. Western and church agents would have dined with Sonia G for future prospects. 8)
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Rony »

Had BJP contested all seats on its own, BJP would have got more seats IMHO. BJP's strike rate in 2019 was close to 70%. Shiv Sena voteshare is stagnant since decades. Its BJP which grew at the expense of Congress. In 2019, Sena didn't want BJP with clear majority and sabotaged many of BJP candidates.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by darshhan »

In my opinion now President's rule should be imposed in Maharashtra. SS cannot be trusted any longer and neither their ambition(power and money making) is aligned to BJP's proclaimed mission of development.

Going along with NCP will damage BJP's reputation in whole India. This is even if NCP supports BJP from outside. Pawar kaka is simply not worth it. He comes with lot of baggage even after discounting massive amounts of corruption(Dawood etc). This alliance will be worse than BJP's alliance in J&K with mehbooba.

BJP should be confident. It is already in pole position in Maharashtra. No need to be afraid of any alliance even if it is that of NCP and congress. Congress is at much reduced strength fron before. Kaka is already pushing 80.

Finally even in UP, BSP and SP contested elections in alliance against BJP, yet BJP swept elections. If product is good and packaging right then people will anyway vote for you.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by SRajesh »

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/cit ... 963160.cms
Can this really happen
I mean will Wily old 'Maratha' support BJP!!
Can BJP not openly say to the Governor that as we don't have the numbers given that SS are playing truant we would like to sit in Opposition!!
Let SS/NCP/Cong form the government and let it go down the tube like in Karnataka after 6 months and then SS will be wiped out once for all
I mean what is the difference between SP SS and NCP all have gone down the dynastic route.
will be interesting if and when elections take place later: the Couzins will they get together!! ( I mean Uddhav and Raj now that Uddhav's son joined active politics) :roll:
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by SRajesh »

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/cit ... 963160.cms
And this by the NCP and Congress is this some kind of a Chanakyan move!! Meaning turn the BJP victory into a 'Phyrric' one!!! by 'foisting' the SS onto the Goberment with BJP!!!
We have a saying in Kannada which roughly translated into Hindi is 'Sir pe ullu betana'
I wonder if it the time for BJP to call SS the game and be done with it.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by darshhan »

Rsatchi wrote:https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/cit ... 963160.cms
Can this really happen
I mean will Wily old 'Maratha' support BJP!!
Can BJP not openly say to the Governor that as we don't have the numbers given that SS are playing truant we would like to sit in Opposition!!
Let SS/NCP/Cong form the government and let it go down the tube like in Karnataka after 6 months and then SS will be wiped out once for all
I mean what is the difference between SP SS and NCP all have gone down the dynastic route.
will be interesting if and when elections take place later: the Couzins will they get together!! ( I mean Uddhav and Raj now that Uddhav's son joined active politics) :roll:
The question is not if NCP will agree to support BJP. They will love to support BJP "once they extract their pound of flesh". After all BJP is the ruling party in centre.

The right question is whether BJP will take NCP's support or not. 'cause it will impact probes related to NCP leaders such as Praful patel and even Kaka himself no matter what anyone says.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by kvraghav »

The NCP will neither support BJP nor vote against them. They will most possibly abstain from voting like last time which will save the Fadnavis govt. The NCP would then rule Maharashtra in the background without actually having any liability of public scrutiny. This is a very good position to be in, something like the JDS is doing in Karnataka today. The proof is the white topping work that has started again which was contracted by the JDS govt and which was stopped by BJP.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by arshyam »

Fadnavis resigns.

Source: times now news around 30mins ago
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Rony »

The beginning of the end of Shiv Sena. This is the Vajpayee moment for Fadnavis
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by abhijitm »

Rony wrote:The beginning of the end of Shiv Sena. This is the Vajpayee moment for Fadnavis
He had to, as a caretaker CM his tenure ends today as guv has given deadline of 9th Nov to form a new government. He resigned today so he can stake claim as new CM tomorrow.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Rony »

Is there any truth in this CT ? Gadkari's name also came up in AP where Chandrababu Naidu supposedly bribed him in Polavaram project and awarded contracts to his firms and both of them shared the loot. On the flip side, it also speeded up the project.
Gadkari was collecting bribes from investors . So he was shunned away by Modi from his inner circle. So Gadkari hatched a plan with Uddhav to get power in Maharashtra. Shiv Sena was merely working as a pawn for Gadkari and Co. If BJP agrees to continue alliance with SS in Maharashtra, the party will further weaken itself. SS is a party of land grabbers and wants Gadkari in power to get its share in loot of Maharashtra.The core issue in Maharashtra politics is business interests. Gadkari is no different from Pawar. He holds all the cards in Maharashtra now. He trumped Amit Shah this time. If Shah-Modi agrees to re-election, it is a possible that Gadkari will openly come out as a rebel. The only reason Fadnavis was put in charge is to cut Gadkari in size. If BJP goes for re-election, this would be direct action against Gadkari and Co.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by vijayk »

No wonder Ahmed Patel carried message from Italian sh1t queen and went to Gadkari. This Ahmed guy is a crookananda and hope Gadkariji does not fall for the mafia's lies
Last edited by vijayk on 08 Nov 2019 20:56, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

It may not be so much about the CM's chair after all.

The deeper game seems to be to dislodge fadnavis and bring in a more amenable and "practical" BJP mukhota with UT being the true power behind the scene.

Fadnavis's clean govt seems to be the problem as the malai did not flow to the SS in the stupendous quantities as they expected. The fate of the NCP and the congis and the decimation of their rural support infrastructure like the coop banks, APMC and the sugar companies unions that was single handedly brought about by fadnavis seems to have scared the crap out of the SS.

This decimation has seriously affected the source of funds for both the congis as well as the NCP.

Probably, in the next round of Fadnavis's reforms, he will skin the SS cat and so UT is trying desperately to head off the BJP at the pass before they re-enter the citadel of power and capture the maratha fort once again.

The SS dominance over the brihan mumbai corporation will also be challenged now by the BJP in the municipal elections.

And, this time around, if the BJP once again succeeds in storming the ramparts, they will take no prisoners.

Gadkari ji is a hard core RSS product. He will not go against the BJP.

Gadkariji's troubles are of a different nature.

The PMO wants him to monetize assets in the road and infrastructure space whereas Gadkari ji has taken on a predominantly debt approach which is causing difficulties in these times of the slowdown.

Hence he finds himself somewhat isolated and sidelined for the moment. His honesty and capacity for hard work just cannot be disputed and the importance of his ministry's contribution is unchallenged.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by pankajs »

Either folks own up to CT or else post source. What is the point of posting CT from a source without the source? It helps folks form a judgement based on the reliability of the source. A CT from Amit Shah will be evaluated differently than one from Turdesai.

The one Gadkari looks dodgy.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by abhijitm »

As far as some here and there chaiwala goes, gadkari is clean. He is infra man from 90s so for that work he is modi's go to man.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by pankajs »

FLASH: Ayodhya Verdict tomorrow 10:30 am
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by pankajs »

IF the verdict goes fully in favor of the Ram Temple, BJP must share some credit with Rajiv Gandhi. BJP must thank him for opening the locks of the structure and start the current phase rolling.

All is fair in love and politics. No harm. Just saying.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Vikas »

No Party would let go of power so easily, be it BJP or SS. Congress is a living proof of the same.
After all they are in this game of politics to capture power. Test of true leadership is only during such testing times, be it AS or DF or heck even UT.

I still respect SS for they have been in the forefront of protecting Hindu interests in Mumbai else Malasi would have run amock.

PS: I think Gadkari Ji is one of the best performing Minister in NM sarkaar, rest all are cheap insinuations.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by SRajesh »

https://twitter.com/i/status/1192845702201634816
This video sums up everything!!! :lol: :lol:
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by RajD »

Vikas wrote:No Party would let go of power so easily, be it BJP or SS. Congress is a living proof of the same.
After all they are in this game of politics to capture power. Test of true leadership is only during such testing times, be it AS or DF or heck even UT.

I still respect SS for they have been in the forefront of protecting Hindu interests in Mumbai else Malasi would have run amock.

PS: I think Gadkari Ji is one of the best performing Minister in NM sarkaar, rest all are cheap insinuations.

Well said. People know who is the real protector and actually takes to the streets. Lathi parade can do only as much. That's why contrary to popular perception, RSS never had traction in Maharashtra in particular for this reason. I don't know about other states. Make no mistake, people make clear distinction between RSSand the BJP and also that they identify more with Modiji. Without him, less said the better. After the present imbroglio in Maharashtra SS and BJP are going to take severe hits. In the first Modi wave also contrary to their expectations BJP fell short of majority despite division of votes. This time round congies were together so it was always going to be a very difficult task and AS knew it and only because of this he entered into alliance with the SS. But then also its transpiring that both parties propped up opposing candidates against each other in 54 places no less. And lost most of those. Also BJP had egg on its face and failed big time on account of biggie turncoats it admitted and gave tickets to. Most of them not only failed but also gave rise to discontent among loyal workers, rebellion and what not. Ultimately 15 rebels have won, majority from BJP. To summarize All calculations of the BJP have gone wrong and despite Modi tsunami they have managed a mediocre below subpar performance, fig leaf of strike rate not withstanding.
Both BJP and SS have followed faithfully carried fwd the historical tradition of fratricide of indic forces and have ceded ground to the congies. Wily Sharad Pawar will have the last laugh and hurrah too.
Last edited by RajD on 08 Nov 2019 23:33, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by darshhan »

Vikas wrote:No Party would let go of power so easily, be it BJP or SS. Congress is a living proof of the same.
After all they are in this game of politics to capture power. Test of true leadership is only during such testing times, be it AS or DF or heck even UT.

I still respect SS for they have been in the forefront of protecting Hindu interests in Mumbai else Malasi would have run amock.

PS: I think Gadkari Ji is one of the best performing Minister in NM sarkaar, rest all are cheap insinuations.
Yes they are at forefront of protecting Hindu interests but only when one is still living in 1992/1993. That Shiv sena of Bal Thackeray and this Shiv sena is totally different.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by RajD »

Quote/Yes they are at forefront of protecting Hindu interests but only when one is still living in 1992/1993. That Shiv sena of Bal Thackeray and this Shiv sena is totally different.[/quote]

Sir,
Pls don't underestimate spirit of the common Shiv sainik.
Should things come to head and UT dithers, I'm sure that will be the defining moment for Raj Thakre. He'll grab this opportunity by both hands and all Shiv sainiks will gravitate around him. Or there will arise a new power center for sure. Malsies will never get a free pass in Maharashtra.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Tanaji »

The best approach currently would be for BJP to not do anything and inform the Governor that they are unable to form a government. The ShivSena will try to form a govt with NCP support and they will succeed. This govt will not last more than a year. We will have elections then. The BJP then can have a field day playing clips of Bal Thackrey that talk against Khangress, "Tulya" Pawar, Family over merit etc etc. Its another matter that the State treasury will be empty due to freebies, crores on yet another BT memorial etc etc...

@RajD: The Shivsena that you spoke of ended even before Bal Thackrey died. BT in his last 5-10 years was not the same as the Sena of the old. Raj Thackrey has only the voice and mannerisms of BT, in all other matters is a street ruffian at heart. The amount of money he has made by doing "mandivli" (marathi slang for bringing two feuding parties to an understanding) regardless of who was correct and who was wrong is countless. The guy used to live in 3 bedroom one at Gadkari Chowk near Shivaji Park and used to walk his dogs in the evenings. Now look where he is.. one only has to look at the scam of Kohinoor mills to understand him. An ED enquiry into RT would reveal wonders and that is why he is quiet.

Moi thinks is that Sanjay Raut has ambitions and aspirations and Uddhav T. is a pawn in his hands. Or it may be UT is more shrewd and playing good cop, bad cop. Remember the old order of Sena viz Manohar Joshi etc were all sidelined on Sanjay Raut and the other guy who is UT's secretary. One wonders who is playing whom at Matoshree.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Tanaji »

RajD wrote: Both BJP and SS have followed faithfully carried fwd the historical tradition of fratricide of indic forces and have ceded ground to the congies. Wily Sharad Pawar will have the last laugh and hurrah too.
+100000
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by KJo »

Instead of all this drama, why didn't AS and UT draw up an agreement about what to do before the elections? It seems like AS thought he could bully the SS and get the CMship while SS was not sure about how they would do in the election.

Now that they combined have a majority, they can't agree and UT wants to bring his pappu in.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by nachiket »

KJo wrote:Instead of all this drama, why didn't AS and UT draw up an agreement about what to do before the elections? It seems like AS thought he could bully the SS and get the CMship while SS was not sure about how they would do in the election.

Now that they combined have a majority, they can't agree and UT wants to bring his pappu in.
How is it bullying when SS has only won half the seats that the BJP has? On what grounds can they ask for the CM's chair?
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

Non BJP parties in MAH talking to each other


Image
KJo
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by KJo »

nachiket wrote:
KJo wrote:Instead of all this drama, why didn't AS and UT draw up an agreement about what to do before the elections? It seems like AS thought he could bully the SS and get the CMship while SS was not sure about how they would do in the election.

Now that they combined have a majority, they can't agree and UT wants to bring his pappu in.
How is it bullying when SS has only won half the seats that the BJP has? On what grounds can they ask for the CM's chair?
My point is, why wasn't the agreement clearly agreed upon before the elections? BJP says one thing and SS says another.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

twitter

National Herald Income Tax case appeal by Sonia & Rahul is listed in SC on Nov 13. But their lead Vakil PC is in jail. Then who will be? Again back to Sibal & Singhvi? Or say My Lord, Our Vakil is inside jail. So please give one more date - to delay?

9:06 PM - 7 Nov 2019
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by CRamS »

Guys, sad to see the tantrums of the Shiv Sena Louts. Better they tie with their ideological dynastic twin Pappu and Co, and BJP sit in the opposition. Disgusting.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by pankajs »

Bhell ...

https://twitter.com/USAmbIndia/status/1 ... 8563866624
Ken Juster @USAmbIndia

Pleased to welcome President of the Central Tibetan Administration @DrLobsangSangay and Kaydor Aukatsang to the U.S. Embassy in New Delhi. Engaging discussion on Tibetan issues. #DiplomacyMatters
This meeting did not happen without the blessings of GOI, did it?
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by RajD »

KJo wrote:
nachiket wrote: How is it bullying when SS has only won half the seats that the BJP has? On what grounds can they ask for the CM's chair?
My point is, why wasn't the agreement clearly agreed upon before the elections? BJP says one thing and SS says another.
This is exactly where the problem lies. UT has been speaking about 50:50 formula for CM ship as an agreed item from pre election days. It's nothing new. But from that time itself BJP has chosen to be ambiguous about it. They chose to push the problem under the carpet that time with over confidence that they would be within striking distance of power and like the last time they would be able to bully SS by threatening to split it. Because congies were fighting together this time it became absolutely imperative for BJP to rope in SS come what may. But there also, by propping up independents against SS they saw to it that it won't be able to win more seats. Alas... since they could manage their own tally to a miserable 100+ all their chanakian calculations have come to a big naught and they are blaming SS for the debacle making it a scape goat. Had AS been confident (which he was not despite Modi tsunami) like 2014 they would have gone alone sighting intransigence of the SS during the last 5 years. And it speaks volumes. But as an afterthought one can say that it would've been better if they had fought elections independently and then tried to forge the alliance which in any case they would have needed to just like congies did in the last at least 2 Maharashtra state elections.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Rony »

wrong thread
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by darshhan »

KJo wrote:Instead of all this drama, why didn't AS and UT draw up an agreement about what to do before the elections? It seems like AS thought he could bully the SS and get the CMship while SS was not sure about how they would do in the election.

Now that they combined have a majority, they can't agree and UT wants to bring his pappu in.
KJO, Who said agreement was not done before? These kind of political agreements are not exactly executed on notarized stamp papers.
Locked