2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

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Vikas
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Vikas »

What is in it for Pawar to ditch SS ?
Would a govt with NCP in it not suite Pawar rather than a BJP govt for next 5 years ?
Is he really trembling with ED & other agencies on his case that he decided to help BJP ?
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by pankajs »

KL Dubey wrote:
abhijitm wrote:Some of the cong/ncp conditions to SS:
1. No thackray family CM
2. 2.5 yrs CM for ncp
3. 5 yrs deputy CM for cong
4. 1/3rd ministries to cong, other 1/3rd to ncp
5. Key portfolios to ncp
6. SS to clarify its stand on hindutva and secularism
^^^Is this from chaiwallahs, or is there any media source reporting it ?
Very nice way to destroy SS once for all.

BJP is the anvil and the NCP is the hammer. Together they will flatten the credibility of the SS and UT/AT. What a game it has been. All that was needed was a poke to UT's Yuuuuuuuge ego by AS and silence after that!

BJP has made NO visible play yet to get SS back. That too is tactical! BJP's silence allows NCP/SS to go for the kill, put the most difficult to swallow condition and thoroughly discredit SS and its leadership infornt of its own MLAs, cadre and voters. BJP is the anvil and the NCP the hammer.

Ideally, BJP will wait for SS/UT makes some sort of commitment to the demands NCP/CON before it makes any public overture. Not give SS/UT a fig leaf to make a U-turn. IF UT tries to pull back on his own and come back to the BJP he will have NO bargaining power. Either way BJP wins. Long rope to allow UT to hang the SS publicity.

AFTER, SS/UT has publicly accepted the NCP/CON offer, the BJP will perhaps make an offer to SS/UT or go for the kill and split the SS.

That sounds like a plan. BJP/AS/Modi are casting their shadow even when they are silent and not doing anything publicly.

Btw, I am NOT gloating with the SS demise as we know it. This is just political analysis/commentary.

We DO need a Hindutva party to the right of the BJP. It serves the Hindutva-vadi and BJP by having such a party. Having the field owned to BJP will benefit the BJP but NOT the Hindutva-vadi in the long run. Such a sad state of affairs.
Last edited by pankajs on 13 Nov 2019 12:06, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

watch video and make up your mind as to who is lying.

During the elections Amit Shah clearly refuted any compromise on the CM candidate.

The Mahayuti, including Sena sought votes in the name of CM Fadnavis.




https://twitter.com/India_Policy/status ... 2037250048
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Vikas »

KL Dubey wrote:
abhijitm wrote:Some of the cong/ncp conditions to SS:
1. No thackray family CM
2. 2.5 yrs CM for ncp
3. 5 yrs deputy CM for cong
4. 1/3rd ministries to cong, other 1/3rd to ncp
5. Key portfolios to ncp
6. SS to clarify its stand on hindutva and secularism
^^^Is this from chaiwallahs, or is there any media source reporting it ?
When UT left BJP for NCP/Cong, I am sure he would have calculated the pound of flesh he will have to part with to become CM. Isn't this what UT was also demanding from BJP.
With almost 1/3rd strength by each party, it is fair for them to demand 33% ministries.
Point # 1 can always be negotiated and #6 can always be couched in political jargon.
If above are the demands, I think UT will agree to almost all as he has already burnt his bridges and going back would leave him right on the edge of political abyss.
Corruption like cigarette is the greatest unifier.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by pankajs »

Vikas wrote:What is in it for Pawar to ditch SS ?
Would a govt with NCP in it not suite Pawar rather than a BJP govt for next 5 years ?
Is he really trembling with ED & other agencies on his case that he decided to help BJP ?
Why will Pawar ditch SS when he can extract his pound of flesh?

How about SS MLAs, cadre and voters ditch SS? The SS MLAs ditching SS/UT will server the BJP right now where as the cadre and voters ditching SS/UT serve it long-term. How about that?

1. No 50:50 split in portfolios
2. No fat ministries
3. Compromise on key ideological planks

Only get 2.5 years of rotational CM that too a non-Thackyer. Why will the MLAs not jump ship to BJP?
Last edited by pankajs on 13 Nov 2019 12:11, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Sachin »

Supreme Court upholds Speaker’s disqualification of 17 Karnataka MLAs
Don't know what is the impact this is going to be for Mr. Yeddy & Co @ BJP in Karnataka. Looks like the MLAs remain disqualified but only till the end of 15th Legislative assembly term.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by pankajs »

pankajs wrote:
Vikas wrote:What is in it for Pawar to ditch SS ?
Would a govt with NCP in it not suite Pawar rather than a BJP govt for next 5 years ?
Is he really trembling with ED & other agencies on his case that he decided to help BJP ?
Why will Pawar ditch SS when he can extract his pound of flesh?

How about SS MLAs, cadre and voters ditch SS? The SS MLAs ditching SS/UT will server the BJP right now where as the cadre and voters ditching SS/UT serve it long-term. How about that?

1. No 50:50 split in portfolios
2. No fat ministries
3. Compromise on key ideological planks

Only get 2.5 years of rotational CM that too a non-Thackyer. Why will the MLAs not jump ship to BJP?
Forgot to add ...

ONLY fools use the last resort first! and no one can claim AS/Modi are fools.

Pawar-play from BJP will come only as a last resort IF every thing else fails. Before that there are a whole lots of SAAM, DAAM, DANDA, BHED! to be used with the SS MLAs.

I don't think Pawar-play will be necessary given how badly the SS MLAs have been let down after being led up the garden path by UT/AT, if one reads the condition proposed by NCP/CON.

Also, Pawar-play has its own downside. Pawarful ditching SS/UT will generate sympathy for UT. Plus Pawarful will need some concession from the BJP. No matter what the case is against Pawarful, unless BJP can lock him up immediately, Pawarful will have his pound of flesh from the BJP plus the sympathy of the public of having been politically targeted at his age. Why grant Pawarful those when all can be achieved at a lesser cost?
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

Vikas wrote:What is in it for Pawar to ditch SS ?
Would a govt with NCP in it not suite Pawar rather than a BJP govt for next 5 years ?
Is he really trembling with ED & other agencies on his case that he decided to help BJP ?
just saying onlee.

he may not have much time left.

his clan are all affected and he possibly wants to rectify that before departure. He may have been left with just no other choice.

The way things panned out on the 12th, culminating with the imposition of the president's rule, the bizarre series of coincidences just cannot be merely attributed to "innocent" happenstance.


Moreover, Sudhir Mungantiwar, the senior BJP leader and state’s finance minister of the outgoing government had stated that the President’s rule could be imposed in Maharashtra, if the government is not form­ed by November 7.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by pankajs »

Sachin wrote:Supreme Court upholds Speaker’s disqualification of 17 Karnataka MLAs
Don't know what is the impact this is going to be for Mr. Yeddy & Co @ BJP in Karnataka. Looks like the MLAs remain disqualified but only till the end of 15th Legislative assembly term.
Negative > The MLAs will have to get elected again and that means 50% or more are going to loose, given the current state configuration, and strengthen the number against BJP in the assembly.

Neutral > No immediate threat to the BJP in KAR

Overall Negative and one reason why KAR is likely to have a fresh Assembly election in the near future.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by sum »

The party wants the alliance to look like a car where Shiv Sena is on the driving seat and NCP is the key while Congress will control the braking system, said the source.
:rotfl: :rotfl:
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by kvraghav »

pankajs wrote:
Sachin wrote:Supreme Court upholds Speaker’s disqualification of 17 Karnataka MLAs
Don't know what is the impact this is going to be for Mr. Yeddy & Co @ BJP in Karnataka. Looks like the MLAs remain disqualified but only till the end of 15th Legislative assembly term.
Negative > The MLAs will have to get elected again and that means 50% or more are going to loose, given the current state configuration, and strengthen the number against BJP in the assembly.

Neutral > No immediate threat to the BJP in KAR

Overall Negative and one reason why KAR is likely to have a fresh Assembly election in the near future.
BJP is at 104 Plus the three independents. That is 107. I think the merger of one independent is rejected which means he may not loose his seat. This govt will survive till next central elections. The plans as below:

1) Win 6 seats out of the 16 seats.
2) Resign 2 more MLA if the above does not happen. GT Deve Gowda is already ready.
3) Take JDS support if all the above fails. Kumaraswamy is also ready.

The BJP has 13 Ministers and nearly 10 Board presidents on offer which will be taken up by any of the above.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by pankajs »

kvraghav wrote:BJP is at 104 Plus the three independents. That is 107. I think the merger of one independent is rejected which means he may not loose his seat. This govt will survive till next central elections. The plans as below:

1) Win 6 seats out of the 16 seats.
2) Resign 2 more MLA if the above does not happen. GT Deve Gowda is already ready.
3) Take JDS support if all the above fails. Kumaraswamy is also ready.

The BJP has 13 Ministers and nearly 10 Board presidents on offer which will be taken up by any of the above.
Possible.

However, BJP does not like wafer thin majorities that is venerable to sabotage from within with every MLA becoming important BUT it has worked with such a scenario before. Lets see.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by nachiket »

Whether SS forms the government with NCP or not, the medium term outlook for BJP in MH is bleak. If a govt. is formed it means 5 years of unrestricted loot for the state with BJP watching from the sidelines. If there is no government and elections are held again, NCP-Cong will easily win outright because of SS and BJP votes being split. Fadnavis was doing a lot of good in MH and I had hoped for one more term for him. Thanks to Uddhav's treachery that is unlikely to happen. Perhaps Modi can use him at the center in a cabinet post instead of him being wasted as leader of the opposition in MH assembly.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by pankajs »

nachiket wrote:Whether SS forms the government with NCP or not, the medium term outlook for BJP in MH is bleak. If a govt. is formed it means 5 years of unrestricted loot for the state with BJP watching from the sidelines. If there is no government and elections are held again, NCP-Cong will easily win outright because of SS and BJP votes being split. Fadnavis was doing a lot of good in MH and I had hoped for one more term for him. Thanks to Uddhav's treachery that is unlikely to happen. Perhaps Modi can use him at the center in a cabinet post instead of him being wasted as leader of the opposition in MH assembly.
This is the occasion for display of BJP's tremendous firepower. AS/Modi are not likely to hand over the state on a platter to NCP/CON.

The SS can be split and so can be CON. Remember CON was the first to quarantine it MLAs in Rajasthan! IIRC, 20 CON MLAs are first timers and thus most at risk per CONs own analysis.

The day is young, field wide open and we will likely see DF back in the saddle in MH in not too distant future.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by nachiket »

pankajs wrote: This is the occasion for display of BJP's tremendous firepower. AS/Modi are not likely to hand over the state on a platter to NCP/CON.

The SS can be split and so can be CON. Remember CON was the first to quarantine it MLAs in Rajasthan! IIRC, 20 CON MLAs are first timers and thus most at risk per CONs own analysis.

The day is young, field wide open and we will likely see DF back in the saddle in MH in not too distant future.
Splitting SS and/or Cong is not easy and it will only lead to the MLA's disqualification. Won't give the BJP majority anyway. Besides there is no guarantee that if they join BJP and are given tickets again they will win. BJP had convinced several to defect and join them from NCP/Cong before the election and most of them lost.

As for Cong quarantining their MLA's in Rajasthan I am still not sure if they were afraid of BJP stealing them or their own "ally" Pawar :mrgreen:
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by pankajs »

^^
Not as difficult to split SS/CON as it was in KAR to avoid automatic disqualification.

CON @ 44 is the easiest to get with 22 needed to make is past the anti-defection bar.

105 (BJP) + 17 (Independents) + 22 (Split-CON) = 144

Lets see.

Added Later: The elected MLAs have not been sworn in and I think that is deliberate. Looks like BJP is going to make a chanakyan play via that path though I can't quite figure out what.

BJP will make some unusual play even if it gets challenged in the SC and gets swatted down. They DF would in the meantime, get into the saddle, use the resources and machinery of the state to change the facts on the ground and make the SC decision irrelevant. KAR is the most recent case in point.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by greatde »

pankajs wrote:^^
Not as difficult to split SS/CON as it was in KAR to avoid automatic disqualification.

CON @ 44 is the easiest to get with 22 needed to make is past the anti-defection bar.

105 (BJP) + 17 (Independents) + 22 (Split-CON) = 144

Lets see.

Added Later: The elected MLAs have not been sworn in and I think that is deliberate. Looks like BJP is going to make a chanakyan play via that path though I can't quite figure out what.

BJP will make some unusual play even if it gets challenged in the SC and gets swatted down. They DF would in the meantime, get into the saddle, use the resources and machinery of the state to change the facts on the ground and make the SC decision irrelevant. KAR is the most recent case in point.
Its 2/3, so it has to be 30 MLAs in case of Congress defection. Nevertheless, the best option for BJP for power now is SS own MLAs mass rebellion. But then why hasnt it happened already? We underestimate greed, and lust of power.

Also BJP themselves have a fair share of turncoats, so those MLAs can also resign if other opportunities arises
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by pankajs »

greatde wrote:
pankajs wrote:^^
Not as difficult to split SS/CON as it was in KAR to avoid automatic disqualification.

CON @ 44 is the easiest to get with 22 needed to make is past the anti-defection bar.

105 (BJP) + 17 (Independents) + 22 (Split-CON) = 144

Lets see.

Added Later: The elected MLAs have not been sworn in and I think that is deliberate. Looks like BJP is going to make a chanakyan play via that path though I can't quite figure out what.

BJP will make some unusual play even if it gets challenged in the SC and gets swatted down. They DF would in the meantime, get into the saddle, use the resources and machinery of the state to change the facts on the ground and make the SC decision irrelevant. KAR is the most recent case in point.
Its 2/3, so it has to be 30 MLAs in case of Congress defection. Nevertheless, the best option for BJP for power now is SS own MLAs mass rebellion. But then why hasnt it happened already? We underestimate greed, and lust of power.

Also BJP themselves have a fair share of turncoats, so those MLAs can also resign if other opportunities arises
True that!

However, Why should SS MLAs or their BJP patrons show their hand so early. As I have written before, Ideally BJP will wait for UT/AT to publicly accept the degrading NCP/CON offer before making its move. That is the way to bury the UT i.e. getting him to commit to anti-Hindutva agenda. Has UT committed that yet?

And the resignation game can be played multiple ways and even NCP will come into play when it gets that dirty.

Finally, what if the BJP offers the SS MLAs same terms as NCP/CON - 1/2 CM + DCM + Hindutva - UT/AT, will they rather be with BJP or NCP/CON? After all, accepting NCP/CON terms will negate all SS ideologies. IF as you say, greed and lust for power is all that count then my offer to SS MLAs should work too. What do you say?

The day is yet young ...

Note: Multiple edit for clarity
Last edited by pankajs on 13 Nov 2019 14:19, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by abhijitm »

Key here is sena cadre who have not yet put the pressure on MLAs to deter from this act. If their street cadre think this is okay then UT will be further encouraged.

I am suspecting sena was planning and waiting for a right opportunity to break away from hindutva and stick to local identity politics. Their core voters' key issue is marathi identity anyway and for them hindutva comes second. So I would not surprised to see SS adopt a new face of secularism plus local identity.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Vikas »

If 2/3rd of MLA's from SS can switch sides then Thackrey is really riding on empty gas. I would assume that he has pulse of SS MLA's before he went all green on BJP. What was he smoking I wonder ?
That BJP despite having almost double the seats would meekly surrender CM chair to his family ?
I think this stalemate will either result in fresh elections or parties breaking up and supporting BJP.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by pankajs »

abhijitm wrote:Key here is sena cadre who have not yet put the pressure on MLAs to deter from this act. If their street cadre think this is okay then UT will be further encouraged.

I am suspecting sena was planning and waiting for a right opportunity to break away from hindutva and stick to local identity politics. Their core voters' key issue is marathi identity anyway and for them hindutva comes second. So I would not surprised to see SS adopt a new face of secularism plus local identity.
BJP wouldn't mind SS turn one bit if it can "engineer" the next 5 year for its own. Why is that?

1. On Hindtva they will have no competitors and hence to NO pressure to make any major future moves. Most of the pending "core" issues already in the kitty. Does anyone think Modi/AS want future minefield instead of being allowed to focus their energies on their core Vikas agenda? So no competition to the right is exactly what Modi may want.

2. Sickularism has many farthers and hence intense competition. The more the competition the more radical the ideas will get. Just look at what the Democratic presidential candidates have done to themselves as they competed for the left vote!

Surpise! it works to BJPs advantage. a) Leaves it as the sole custodian of hindutva AND b) Allows them to take a more centrist position while still looking far far to the right of the gooky sickularist.

Result, BJP can make development its plank with just a little sprinkling of Hindutva. Modi can get an international image makeover with his new moderate stance. Works for Modi. Laddu in both hands!

3. Local BJP too can play the local identity politics though it will have to moderate its stance like the CON. Can be managed, On this BJP cannot outdo the SS being a pan India party.

4. The country as a whole is moving right. If all opposition moves to the gookly left guess who benefits? BJP! What is not to like about this from BJP's pov. The movement to the right of the electorate as a whole will allow BJP to blunt "some" of SS's hyper local politics.

Overall, the BJP would gladly accept the above proposition. All promises on core issues done, Modi get to move to the center. Gets to focus solely on Vikas. Gets an International image makeover as the great reformer. Plus I have outlined a settlement with Bakis on J&K that Modi can do. That will make him a great International peace maker. Perhaps, even gets him a NoB@ll!!! :wink:

Did anyone of you see that, I mean Mudi 4 NoBull, coming? IF SS abandons Hindutva, I can see a path for Modi getting it!
Last edited by pankajs on 13 Nov 2019 14:48, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Vikas »

abhijitm wrote:Key here is sena cadre who have not yet put the pressure on MLAs to deter from this act. If their street cadre think this is okay then UT will be further encouraged.

I am suspecting sena was planning and waiting for a right opportunity to break away from hindutva and stick to local identity politics. Their core voters' key issue is marathi identity anyway and for them hindutva comes second. So I would not surprised to see SS adopt a new face of secularism plus local identity.
100% bang on.
Marathi manoos identity play can be very powerful even though it gets diluted in the face of fact that last time when SS was in power, They chose a UP wala instead of Marathi manoos as CM.
SS was a powerful force but its time is up. They have nothing to offer to Mubaikars except for loutness.
UT got lucky in 2014 since voters were not sure and there was strong anti-incumbency against the govt. Without BJP support, he is looking at less than 40 MLA's in next elections.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by sajo »

abhijitm wrote:Key here is sena cadre who have not yet put the pressure on MLAs to deter from this act. If their street cadre think this is okay then UT will be further encouraged.
A few days before the election, I got chatty with the facilities staff at my organisation, both of them "Kattar Shivsainiks" , in their own words(tiger photo on bike, photo with local leader in whatsapp DP types). It was back then they had told me there was unhappiness amongst the cadre due to a general feeling of being given a raw deal by the BJP. I would say then UT was right in identifying the pulse of the cadres, though my sample is really small.
If anything, I would say DF dodged a bullet by not being stuck in a bad bickering marriage, which would have meant draining all energies pacifying the partner instead of focussing on more productive things.
Admirably though, if its anyone who is going on as usual, its the caretaker CM. None of the chestthumping, bluster or empty talk over the past few days, quietly going on with his duties. I am saddened to see him not coming back.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by pankajs »

sajo21 wrote:A few days before the election, I got chatty with the facilities staff at my organisation, both of them "Kattar Shivsainiks" , in their own words(tiger photo on bike, photo with local leader in whatsapp DP types). It was back then they had told me there was unhappiness amongst the cadre due to a general feeling of being given a raw deal by the BJP. I would say then UT was right in identifying the pulse of the cadres, though my sample is really small.
This is why BJP must wait for SS and NCP/CON to come to an agreement and move only after that. Let the SS voters, caders and MLAs see the kind of deal that UT gets with NCP/CON. This has been my point from the beginning. Long-rope and patience.
sajo21 wrote:If anything, I would say DF dodged a bullet by not being stuck in a bad bickering marriage, which would have meant draining all energies pacifying the partner instead of focussing on more productive things.
Perhaps why BJP stuck to its guns.
sajo21 wrote:Admirably though, if its anyone who is going on as usual, its the caretaker CM. None of the chestthumping, bluster or empty talk over the past few days, quietly going on with his duties. I am saddened to see him not coming back.
In continuation of my first point, there is nothing to do "publicly" before SS comes to an in-principle aggrement with NCP/CON.

DF/AS/Modi know the value of patience and silence. There would be hectic backroom activities though. Do NOT judge by public appearances. Btw, IF BJP had given up, it would have allowed SS and NCP the time they sought instead of imposing President's rule. Elementary!
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by sajo »

There are also murmurs of replacing Fadnavis as the CM face with Chandrakant Patil, to appease the Maratha lobby within BJP as well as sympathizers within NCP. Thats why the hectic move of his constituency to Kothrud (the Wayanad of BJP).
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by pankajs »

sajo21 wrote:There are also murmurs of replacing Fadnavis as the CM face with Chandrakant Patil, to appease the Maratha lobby within BJP as well as sympathizers within NCP. Thats why the hectic move of his constituency to Kothrud (the Wayanad of BJP).
My guess: 2 Deputy CM - One Maratha and one SS or SS split.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by nachiket »

Vikas wrote: Marathi manoos identity play can be very powerful even though it gets diluted in the face of fact that last time when SS was in power, They chose a UP wala instead of Marathi manoos as CM.
.
Who are you talking about? The only 2 SS CM’s till now are Manohar Joshi and Narayan Rane, both Maharashtrian. There has been no non-maharashtrian CM of MH.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Sachin »

sajo21 wrote:It was back then they had told me there was unhappiness amongst the cadre due to a general feeling of being given a raw deal by the BJP.
What where their reasons to feel that BJP gave SS a raw deal? One, SS folks may have a feeling that they are the most supreme and by default BJP should be playing the second fiddle. I remember reading this some where (atleast 5-6 years back, when DF became the CM). Shiv Sena folks had this concept of them being the "Tiger" who always came to the rescue of the Damsel in distress Kamla Bhai (* Kamal = Lotus = BJP). But off late Kamla Bhai started getting feminazi tendencies, with the tiger reduced to being a circus tiger. Don't know if that led to the bad blood among the two.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

nachiket wrote:
Vikas wrote: Marathi manoos identity play can be very powerful even though it gets diluted in the face of fact that last time when SS was in power, They chose a UP wala instead of Marathi manoos as CM.
.
Who are you talking about? The only 2 SS CM’s till now are Manohar Joshi and Narayan Rane, both Maharashtrian. There has been no non-maharashtrian CM of MH.
on level 2 :mrgreen:

maratha, brahmin and what not.

fadnavis is non maratha and also very successful and most effective.

That scares the crap out of a lot of regional, rural satraps and their entrenched maratha networks
Last edited by chetak on 13 Nov 2019 15:30, edited 1 time in total.
sajo
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by sajo »

Sachin wrote: What where their reasons to feel that BJP gave SS a raw deal?
Campaign visibility for SS was one as it was all a DF/Modi blitzkrieg, and the feeling that ministership talks had already failed. Though I feel its Sena's own doing, and if they wanted to have the visibility, they should have been part of the Maha Jan-Aadesh Yatras by stepping down from the lofty pedestals of Matoshree.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

sajo21 wrote:
Sachin wrote: What where their reasons to feel that BJP gave SS a raw deal?
Campaign visibility for SS was one as it was all a DF/Modi blitzkrieg, and the feeling that ministership talks had already failed. Though I feel its Sena's own doing, and if they wanted to have the visibility, they should have been part of the Maha Jan-Aadesh Yatras by stepping down from the lofty pedestals of Matoshree.
the matoshree gang has lived by extracting tributes and dispensing patronage along with some gratuitous violence to keep the jantha under control.

They want "ministerships" for profit and not for doing work.

this technique is ok for rotational politics, meaning this time my turn, next time your turn and no inquiries or cases against each other.

It is not the way this generation of the BJP leadership is willing to work

and this is what such rotational politicos have been doing for years in all states and this is the type of patronage that is up for sale and the matoshree guys wan in desperately.

If they get caught, it will be Modi and AS, emblazoned on all the front pages.
Bengaluru: Raids by Income Tax department officials at former deputy chief minister G Parameshwara's college could draw more probes by other central agencies, now that it has set off questions about the quality of admissions in all deemed universities.

The I-T department plans to alert the regional economic intelligence agencies' committee on this, after Parameshwara's nephew allegedly signed a confession statement admitting to the way in which they used agents to fill medical seats in their colleges at exorbitant rates.


another congi stalwart, K J george is in also deep schitt with the IT/ED and hopefully will soon be moving to enjoy the salubrious dilli climate in tihar for some govt sponsored holiday time.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by abhijitm »

Sachin wrote:
sajo21 wrote:It was back then they had told me there was unhappiness amongst the cadre due to a general feeling of being given a raw deal by the BJP.
What where their reasons to feel that BJP gave SS a raw deal? One, SS folks may have a feeling that they are the most supreme and by default BJP should be playing the second fiddle. I remember reading this some where (atleast 5-6 years back, when DF became the CM). Shiv Sena folks had this concept of them being the "Tiger" who always came to the rescue of the Damsel in distress Kamla Bhai (* Kamal = Lotus = BJP). But off late Kamla Bhai started getting feminazi tendencies, with the tiger reduced to being a circus tiger. Don't know if that led to the bad blood among the two.
If you read SS mouthpiece Saamana regularly and start buying into that brainwashing then you will also start feeling like tiger. That constant chest thumping and below the belt criticism of anything other than SS got to have mental effect. We used to have Saamana daily at home and it gets your blood boil. Finally stopped reading.

Also if you regularly interact with their shakha pramukh (SS eyes and ears on ground) then you will notice a pattern of same chest thumping and similar narrative.
Last edited by abhijitm on 13 Nov 2019 16:04, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by pankajs »

CON mlas have started moving back to MH from RJ. Why? Seems like with BJP throwing it towel CON mlas are now safe. :rotfl:
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by pankajs »

For the record and not to pollute the RJB thread ...

https://twitter.com/khanumarfa/status/1 ... 3661716480
Arfa Khanum Sherwani @khanumarfa

The most painful aspect is that it is not just politics that has failed India’s Muslims but the democratic institutions,latest being the judiciary.
Tragic irony: the community who’s been wronged is being told,it no more has the right to express its disagreement on the judgement.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by pankajs »

20 hours old tweet ...

https://twitter.com/sadhavi/status/1194246142545915906
Sadhavi Khosla @sadhavi

SS spokesman, Anant Tare in a debate with @journosaurav on @indiatvnews says that SS’s alliance with BJP is still intact ... @rasheedkidwai was also in the debate .. Kya nautanki hai yeh?
Seems like BJP has asked SS to get a market quote for its support and it might be willing to match it with some adjustment (-1/2 CM + DCM).
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by pankajs »

Difficult to judge all the tweets as genuine and what is CT .. claims to be a jurno ... FWIW

https://twitter.com/SanjayBragta/status ... 2545241088
Sanjay Bragta @SanjayBragta

Congress was ready with letter of support Monday, Pawar asked to wait, Sonia sent 3 leaders to talk to Pawar Tuesday, before they could land, NCP asked Governor at 11:30 AM(had time till 8:30 PM) to extend their time for 3 more days, knowing will not get it. Game! #presidentrule
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by kittoo »

pankajs wrote:For the record and not to pollute the RJB thread ...

https://twitter.com/khanumarfa/status/1 ... 3661716480
Arfa Khanum Sherwani @khanumarfa

The most painful aspect is that it is not just politics that has failed India’s Muslims but the democratic institutions,latest being the judiciary.
Tragic irony: the community who’s been wronged is being told,it no more has the right to express its disagreement on the judgement.
That is how it always starts, doesnt it? We dont have any institution which is just to us (read:which always bows to us and never dares do anything against us even if we are wrong). Which then morphs to this country is not for us, we are subjugated we must have our own country etc.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by sajo »

pankajs wrote:Difficult to judge all the tweets as genuine and what is CT .. claims to be a jurno ... FWIW

https://twitter.com/SanjayBragta/status ... 2545241088
Sanjay Bragta @SanjayBragta

Congress was ready with letter of support Monday, Pawar asked to wait, Sonia sent 3 leaders to talk to Pawar Tuesday, before they could land, NCP asked Governor at 11:30 AM(had time till 8:30 PM) to extend their time for 3 more days, knowing will not get it. Game! #presidentrule

^^ If indeed true what does Pawar get out of this charade? He is far too wily to make ED charges stick even without doing all of this.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by pankajs »

sajo21 wrote:^^ If indeed true what does Pawar get out of this charade? He is far to wily to make ED charges stick even without doing all of this.
Pawar thinks he is working for himself. He is helping himself in squeezing SS for every last drop of juice that he can get out. For that he does not need an artificial time limit hanging over his head. If might not impact his negotiating style but it makes SS wanting to wrap up quickly. Now he has up to 6 months to torture every concession he can wring out of SS. Smart!

Bwt, it also helps BJP to see NCP squeeze SS to the barest minimum so that when it has to make a counter, its offer will automatically be smaller. In a sense BJP has outsourced the dirty task of hammering concessions out of SS/UT to NCP while DF/AS go about their daily tasks as if nothing important is happening. :rotfl:

AS/Modi also know a slow process will also test the SS voters, cader and MLAs and UT patience when they ALL were expecting quick rewards and bonuses. Frustration also leads to anger which leads to mistakes. Works both for BJP and NCP/CON. BJP especially want the frustration to build up in the MLAs so that they can then be exploited at the right time.

This is how cynical politics can get. Just to watch the masters at work can be such a learning experience.

THIS.
https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1194257855710318593
ANI @ANI

NCP Chief Sharad Pawar: We are in no hurry. We will hold discussions with Congress and then take a decision (to support Shiv Sena). #MaharashtraGovtFormation
On the ED thing .. depends on what ED and NIA can hang on him. He is getting old and will be out of the scene in 10 years. BJP needs him to maneuver for their benefit for a very short time. After that he can be left alone to go spend his twilight years in peace and after him his party will be ready for easy pickings. Same as JDU, which is why Nitish has not been disturbed in Bihar.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by pankajs »

From yesterday afternoon ... This is the kind of bluff SS was making to get a better deal with BJP. No wonder BJP asked them to get a market quote for their offer instead of SS's own estimation.

https://twitter.com/dhaval241086/status ... 2138959872
Dhaval Patel @dhaval241086

Absolutely no discussion took place between NCP and INC formally till now to support Sena in Maharashtra: Ahmed Patel

Then on what basis Sena leaders went to stake a claim and on top of that also anticipated support letters from both parties at Governor's place. Sabotage??
Also, BJP was tired of the constant sniping from the SS and hence handed over the negotiation to NCP's Pawarful.

Added Later: BJP also wants the SS to get off its high horse. What better way than to let it go head to head with that wily old fox and a soul sapping and brutal negotiation with NCP/CON combined where all its cards will be out in the open and where it will be asked to make compromises on many of its old ideological positions.
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