2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
For the people in those 100 odd constituencies that voted NCP + INC, pretty good, I guess.
Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
At least going by media reports this "trio" govt. in MH is not going to have a smooth sail. As the saying goes "there is no honesty among theives"; sooner or later they would start backstabbing each other. And as I understand the trio have STILL NOT managed to reach a consensus. All we hear is of Shiv Sena doing many levels of grovelling and foot worshipping.
Uddhav's core team takes battle ahead in Maharashtra
Uddhav Thackeray, Aaditya meet Sharad Pawar in Mumbai
Maharashtra Govt Formation LIVE: Cong, NCP leaders to meet MahaAghadi allies; Sena chief to chair meeting with MLAs
Uddhav's core team takes battle ahead in Maharashtra
Uddhav Thackeray, Aaditya meet Sharad Pawar in Mumbai
Maharashtra Govt Formation LIVE: Cong, NCP leaders to meet MahaAghadi allies; Sena chief to chair meeting with MLAs
The Sangh by this time would also have realised this problem of Hindus . In Indian history what I have noticed is that any group which came in as a cohesive force has been able to take control of things. Mughals came, followed by the Brits. Both were very cohesive and worked with a united vision. And RSS & BJP also can take on a similar strategy. Agreed, all Hindus or Hindu parties may not support them (like what Shiv Sena did now) but still a unified force will have an advantage over small groups especially if they are disunited. I still feel that BJP chanakyas can still cause disunity in this unholy marriage and mess up things.sanjayc wrote:After reading Hindu history, I have found that greed has been the main weakness of Hindus (greed for power, money and fame).
Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
...and 56 constituencies that voted for SS. They wanted their man in power and are getting it. Can't complain.arshyam wrote:For the people in those 100 odd constituencies that voted NCP + INC, pretty good, I guess.
Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Surely this all is well, or Modi/Shah knows what they are doing is just being very hopeful. Right now, its a lost battle on this Maharashtra and possibly Jharkhand. There will be more battles in future, but right now is a difficult phase...
Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Why do you think A. Shah & Na.Mo just allowed this to be played out? They are also not political novices? Do you feel that they did not have any other options? BJP has come up with very many unique schemes like "Op. Kamala" etc to get into power. So they too are not babes in the woods.greatde wrote:Surely this all is well, or Modi/Shah knows what they are doing is just being very hopeful. Right now, its a lost battle on this Maharashtra
Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Yes ... Modi met Pawar a few days back to congratulate him on his victory against the "so-called Chanakya of the Indian politics"... see the item below.greatde wrote:Surely this all is well, or Modi/Shah knows what they are doing is just being very hopeful. Right now, its a lost battle on this Maharashtra and possibly Jharkhand. There will be more battles in future, but right now is a difficult phase...
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 152417.cms
How cruel of Moti jee He not only backstabbed his own Chanakya but also congratulated Pawar on his maneuvering abilities just a few days back in the parliament and outside.NCP chief Sharad Pawar finally "outwitted" the "so-called Chanakya of the Indian politics", the party takes a jibe at BJP.
The NCP's chief spokesperson Nawab Malik also reiterated that the throne of Delhi could not make Maharashtra bow before it.
Modi keeps winning and weak hearted folks keep loosing their mind.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Elections are won and elections are lost. Why so much gloom and doom.
BJP will never be ruling all the states for all the time. Someday they will even lose GJ. That is the nature of electoral politics. AS and NM are mere mortals.
IMO BJP did the right thing and cut out their losses. I don't know if SS led govt would fall or complete 5 years but atleast foe and friend is clearly identified. Also inherent contradictions between a small state level party fed on local chauvinism and full fledged state level party struggling to stay relevant and a so called national party struggling to reclaim the state and some money would come to the fore pretty soon.
I hope like TN, MH would still grow and prosper despite thieves looting it.
BJP will never be ruling all the states for all the time. Someday they will even lose GJ. That is the nature of electoral politics. AS and NM are mere mortals.
IMO BJP did the right thing and cut out their losses. I don't know if SS led govt would fall or complete 5 years but atleast foe and friend is clearly identified. Also inherent contradictions between a small state level party fed on local chauvinism and full fledged state level party struggling to stay relevant and a so called national party struggling to reclaim the state and some money would come to the fore pretty soon.
I hope like TN, MH would still grow and prosper despite thieves looting it.
Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Let the Libtards celebrate.CRamS wrote:Anyway, what a colossal betrayal by the low-life SS thugs. Libtards are sure celebrating. And if as they hope, delusion or not, this split is the beginning of the end of the BJP juggernaut, well what does it say about us Hindu?
An alien Italian Catholic uses Hindu internecine squabbles to defeat Hindus. Maybe too early for such a dire prediction, but definitely plausible. KaranJi posted those stats on BJP power in states. Its roughly 50-50 and Sonia controlling quite a few states. Far from Cong mukt Bharat.
Let me also share with you something I personally have observed about "some" Hindus. There are a set of Hindus, always have been in all ages, who at the first wiff of a setback, will pull down their own white dhotis, without being asked, shape it into a flag, attach it to a pole and wave it furiously as a sign of surrender even before the skirmish is over!
Shocking ... but true.
OTOH, there are other Hindus who keep planning/playing/fighting with the big picture in mind. Small setback/losses don't matter to them in the big scheme of things. I dare say, at times they invite small losses to purge the field of weak hands.
Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Also note, Chanakya never took the expected path ...
Btw, If "most" lay person can figure out the plan then, it, by definition is not a chanikyan at all! To be called a Chanakyan, a plan has to be counter-intutive and go against common sense & logic as judged by most people. By definition, one has to go beyond the first level thinking.
Lets examine the most intuitive option available to BJP in Maha. Some facts before analysis.
a. BJP won 105 seats on its own
b. BJP rebels won another 15
c. Total Maha assembly strength = 288, IIRC
d. Sena, BJP's pre-poll alliance, won 56 seats, IIRC
Therefore,
1. BJP-Sena alliance had a comfortable majority and could have formed the government.
2. BJP on its own or with its rebels could not get a simple majority of 145.
Therefore,
1st level thinking dictates that BJP should have agreed to Sena's proposal (Rotating CM + 50:50 portfolio sharing offer including ATM ministries). Also in line the another principle "Perfect is the enemy of Good enough". Such a compromise to retain power but more importantly to prevent NCP/CON combine to gain power in a highly critical state would have been considered practical & logical and therefore non-chanakyan. Would have been a decent compromise no doubt.
However, BJP, in its own wisdom, walked off the field! AND there is no denying that it walked off on its own. Beyond repeating that it had no such 50:50 understanding with Sena, BJP made no effort to form a government.
This is highly counter to very element of common sense & logic that we know. Either BJP is "stupid" or it is playing to a scipt that we do not know. There can be no other option.
Now, after having seen Modi/Shah duo operate, we can strike off the 1st options i.e. they are certainly not "stupid" to surrender a critical state like Maha without a fight.
So my dear friends, what remains, no matter how improbable must be true i.e. Modi/Shah are playing according to their own script, one that is beyond our understanding.
Does it mean that Modi/Shah will succeed and Maha will get a BJP government shortly? Not al all! They have made a bet, a play if you will, that defies common sense/logic. They might success or they might fail spectacularly but they are not "stupid" that much we can rest assured.
If I had to make a bet, I would unreservedly back Modi/Shah duo to meet their objective whatever it is. Btw, their play will only be visible after it has run its course.
Btw, If "most" lay person can figure out the plan then, it, by definition is not a chanikyan at all! To be called a Chanakyan, a plan has to be counter-intutive and go against common sense & logic as judged by most people. By definition, one has to go beyond the first level thinking.
Lets examine the most intuitive option available to BJP in Maha. Some facts before analysis.
a. BJP won 105 seats on its own
b. BJP rebels won another 15
c. Total Maha assembly strength = 288, IIRC
d. Sena, BJP's pre-poll alliance, won 56 seats, IIRC
Therefore,
1. BJP-Sena alliance had a comfortable majority and could have formed the government.
2. BJP on its own or with its rebels could not get a simple majority of 145.
Therefore,
1st level thinking dictates that BJP should have agreed to Sena's proposal (Rotating CM + 50:50 portfolio sharing offer including ATM ministries). Also in line the another principle "Perfect is the enemy of Good enough". Such a compromise to retain power but more importantly to prevent NCP/CON combine to gain power in a highly critical state would have been considered practical & logical and therefore non-chanakyan. Would have been a decent compromise no doubt.
However, BJP, in its own wisdom, walked off the field! AND there is no denying that it walked off on its own. Beyond repeating that it had no such 50:50 understanding with Sena, BJP made no effort to form a government.
This is highly counter to very element of common sense & logic that we know. Either BJP is "stupid" or it is playing to a scipt that we do not know. There can be no other option.
Now, after having seen Modi/Shah duo operate, we can strike off the 1st options i.e. they are certainly not "stupid" to surrender a critical state like Maha without a fight.
So my dear friends, what remains, no matter how improbable must be true i.e. Modi/Shah are playing according to their own script, one that is beyond our understanding.
Does it mean that Modi/Shah will succeed and Maha will get a BJP government shortly? Not al all! They have made a bet, a play if you will, that defies common sense/logic. They might success or they might fail spectacularly but they are not "stupid" that much we can rest assured.
If I had to make a bet, I would unreservedly back Modi/Shah duo to meet their objective whatever it is. Btw, their play will only be visible after it has run its course.
Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
“They miscalculated (Shiv Sena’s need for power)” is way more plausible than “they are playing 11-dimensional chess”.
Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
True. To add to your point, SS has fed their voters enough poison about BJP, they don't care. Little awkwardness as they are venturing into something never done before, but they will be okay. SS voters never motivated by hindutva. For them marathi identity is the most imp. There is anger in SS voters against bjp mumbai as bjp is seen mainly as gujrati and north indian backed party. Which in a way is not completely false. If you visit hospitals, bmc and many private offices in mumbai and see marathi staff then you should know they are there because of SS and MNS. If you see lower middleclass/middleclass marathi people still living on prime land of south mumbai against all powerful builder lobbies then it is because of SS. Otherwise they could have been pushed out far away in nalasopara and kalyan. So, expecting them to turn their back on SS and next time vote bjp is totally delusional.Kashi wrote:...and 56 constituencies that voted for SS. They wanted their man in power and are getting it. Can't complain.arshyam wrote:For the people in those 100 odd constituencies that voted NCP + INC, pretty good, I guess.
However, this split is blessing in disguise. Because till now BJP couldn't poach SS voters as it was an ally but now BJP can go full force to woo them, assure them that their identity and welfare is not at risk. These people will be more amicable to BJP than cong, ncp. I sincerely hope BJP does this otherwise these 3 parties can form a formidable long lasting alliance.
Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
let's see during the floor test.
there are folks in the SS, NCP and the congi who are fearful of what will surely follow the formation of any non BJP govt in MAH.
the pawarful peoples themselves are staring at the nooses and proof would have been furnished by now to all concerned.
some people just should not be crossed, as some white vesties from TN have discovered to their extreme dismay.
there are folks in the SS, NCP and the congi who are fearful of what will surely follow the formation of any non BJP govt in MAH.
the pawarful peoples themselves are staring at the nooses and proof would have been furnished by now to all concerned.
some people just should not be crossed, as some white vesties from TN have discovered to their extreme dismay.
Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
By last Friday (15th Nov) Sena/NCP/CON where confident of forming their government and had publicly declared their intent to meet the Governor.A_Gupta wrote:“They miscalculated (Shiv Sena’s need for power)” is way more plausible than “they are playing 11-dimensional chess”.
Even after that Sena (Raut???) had issued a statement that they were willing to back the BJP/Sena alliance IF BJP was willing to accept the 50:50 terms. BJP did not make any effort to bring them back.
India Today running commentary on 16th Nov. I will try to get a link to the above mentioned statement.
https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/m ... 2019-11-15
This should work as a substitute.Shiv Sena wonders if PM was kept in loop about 50:50 formula
09:13 AM IST
Shiv Sena leader Sanjay Raut on Thursday said that had BJP president Amit Shah informed Prime Minister Narendra Modi about the "50:50" seat-sharing formula "in time", Maharashtra would not have been facing the current political impasse.
By this time there should have been no doubt in the BJP camp about "Senas's need for power"09:15 AM IST
Sources have told India Today that the Common Minimum Programme has been finalised. As per CMP, Shiv Sena will get the CM for the full term, 14 ministers will be from Shiv Sena and NCP each, 12 from Congress among others. CMP mentions focus on farmer and youth issues. No mention of Hindutva-related issues.
15:47 PM IST
"Anything can happen in cricket and politics. Somewhere you feel you are losing the match, but the result is exactly the opposite," Nitin Gadkari said when asked about the current political situation in Maharashtra.
Fadnavis/Modi/Shah made no moves even after Sena/NCP/CON come to an agreement.17:12 PM IST
Maharashtra BJP president, Chandrakant Patil: We have the highest number. With 119 MLAs we will form the BJP government in the state, Devendra Fadnavis has expressed this confidence before party leaders. We are committed to giving a stable govt to state. There can't be a government in Maharashtra without BJP.
By now CON too has confirmed that the deal between parties has been sealed. BJP still sitting on its hinds20:22 PM IST
Sources from Congress have said that the three parties' common minimum program (CMP) has been finalised. They said that Shiv Sena wants a decision should be taken as soon as possible since the MLAs are "under threat". Sources said that MLAs are getting contacted.
According to sources, the CMP is based on the manifestos of all the three parties - Shiv Sena, Congress and NCP. All issues included by NCP and Congress in their manifestos will be accepted by Shiv Sena through the CMP. Congress sources said that all three parties are very serious about forming the government and want it to happen as soon as possible.
This when it was clear that Sena/NCP/CON had reached an agreement on common minimum program and were on their way to form the next government in Maharashtra.23:50 PM IST
The vision of the RSS and its affiliated organisations is not limited to "forming government" but it is more about "nation-building", senior BJP leader Nitin Gadkari said in Pune.
"We (Sangh parivar) have a clear vision, and it is not limited to forming government or making anyone chief minister or prime minister," the Union minister said.
"We have a clear vision about our ideology and we should work for rebuilding the nation," he said.
Gadkari did not make any direct comment on the current political situation in Maharashtra where his party could not form government despite emerging as the single-largest party after the last month's elections.
"Ideology is important and human relations are even more important for us," he said.
By the end of the day (16th Nov 2019), Gadkari had stated the unstated quite unambiguously. BJP is sitting out this innings/phase. A RSS man, also IIRC requested by Sena to "mediate" and a man deputed by Modi/Shah for trouble shooting in and around Maharashtra multiple times before.
Nothing could be clearer.
Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Yeah. Occam's razor/duck principal and all.A_Gupta wrote:“They miscalculated (Shiv Sena’s need for power)” is way more plausible than “they are playing 11-dimensional chess”.
Though its not without silver lining. NCP and Congress are minority parties through and through. Lets see how much compromise Shivsena makes on these. The more the better I say. Something's gotta give here. Will Shivsena brace secular politics?
Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
https://www.firstpost.com/politics/maha ... 58351.html
BJP clearly not expecting Sena to return back to the alliance and it made no effort to get Sena on board after declining to form a government on its own.
BJP signalling as if it has accepted the current political alignment.16:54 (IST)
BJP to focus on local body elections in Maharashtra, says Chandrakant Patil
BJP state chief Chandrakant Patil told reporters after a meeting with 56 state party leaders that the BJP is set to face the upcoming local body elections in various parts of the state with a positive outlook.
According to a report in News-18 Lokmat, the 56 leaders were among those who had unsuccessfully contested the state Assembly polls.
This was also in news a couple of days back when Sena MPs complained that their RS seats had been changed without consulting them. Again, BJP has been signalling it acceptance of the current political alignment for quite a while now.16:35 (IST)
Seating arrangement of Shiv Sena MPs in Parliament changed
BJP clearly not expecting Sena to return back to the alliance and it made no effort to get Sena on board after declining to form a government on its own.
Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
The BJP is playing for the long run in MH. Both BJP and SS realize there is no room (nor does it make sense) for two large parties to claim 'Hindutva' in MH. Duplication of effort in the same camp is always disastrous. Furthermore SS was only using the Hindutva claim to ride piggyback on BJP...it is only about Thakretva and not Hindutva. Uddhav has decided to jump to the 'secular' camp before his party is eaten away by BJP...since he does not have the courage or vision to merge into BJP.
Same patterns as BH and KA....overambitious (but underpowerful) state poltoo trying to form a rump goremint with 'secular'/UPA running the show behind the scenes. Neither Nitish, Gowdas, nor Thakres have been able to form a stable goremint without BJP in the last 25 years. After seeing two such cases play out recently, I agree with Gadkari that the third will probably not last long.
As for BJP, there is now a free run to claim the entire Hindutva space. The party has the resources to do it. Additionally, it can now add SS corrupts to the prosecution list and speed up prosecution of NCP and INC corrupts. The decks are cleared. The SS has always been a pain in the ass of everyone, so if the BJP has now transferred this millstone from its neck to that of UPA, that is welcome!
As of now the BJP has shown a completely clarity and consistency....no bargaining with SS, and immediately forking over the SS MPs in Sansad to the opposition benches. This is clearly Amit Shah's objective.
Now I don't know if there are a lot of MLAs in the SS who have trouble swallowing the shack-up with UPA, and whether they will switch sides. But Amit's game is long-term...if SS wallahs switch sides and end up forcing a new election, theek hai.
Same patterns as BH and KA....overambitious (but underpowerful) state poltoo trying to form a rump goremint with 'secular'/UPA running the show behind the scenes. Neither Nitish, Gowdas, nor Thakres have been able to form a stable goremint without BJP in the last 25 years. After seeing two such cases play out recently, I agree with Gadkari that the third will probably not last long.
As for BJP, there is now a free run to claim the entire Hindutva space. The party has the resources to do it. Additionally, it can now add SS corrupts to the prosecution list and speed up prosecution of NCP and INC corrupts. The decks are cleared. The SS has always been a pain in the ass of everyone, so if the BJP has now transferred this millstone from its neck to that of UPA, that is welcome!
As of now the BJP has shown a completely clarity and consistency....no bargaining with SS, and immediately forking over the SS MPs in Sansad to the opposition benches. This is clearly Amit Shah's objective.
Now I don't know if there are a lot of MLAs in the SS who have trouble swallowing the shack-up with UPA, and whether they will switch sides. But Amit's game is long-term...if SS wallahs switch sides and end up forcing a new election, theek hai.
Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Sh!t Sena is nothing more than a Thakre family business. Uddhav and Aditya are now ready to embrace anything to gain power, they are literally begging. I think BJP is looking at this from a proactive standpoint. The objective is to get rid of the SS and have a free run to establish itself as the only Hindutva and national party of importance in MH.kittoo wrote:Yeah. Occam's razor/duck principal and all.A_Gupta wrote:“They miscalculated (Shiv Sena’s need for power)” is way more plausible than “they are playing 11-dimensional chess”.
Though its not without silver lining. NCP and Congress are minority parties through and through. Lets see how much compromise Shivsena makes on these. The more the better I say. Something's gotta give here. Will Shivsena brace secular politics?
Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
If it is still not clear .. here it is form the horses mouth on the other side .. This is from today where as the last 2 posts where form 16th-Nov
https://www.firstpost.com/politics/maha ... 78361.html
https://www.firstpost.com/politics/maha ... 78361.html
Gadkhari/Shah/Modi had no time for poor UT even while the Sena/NCP/CON alliance was almost finalized last Friday/Saturday. I think they do appreciate "Sena's hunger for power" and have decided to cut Sena loose.15:11 (IST)
Haven't gotten any call from BJP: Uddhav Thackeray tells MLAs
Earlier today, Shiv Sena MLAs had made it clear that they wanted Uddhav Thacker to be the chief minister. "But his word would be final and would be binding on all of us," Sena MLA Bhaskar Jadhav said. According to Jadhav, Thackeray rejected speculation that the BJP was in touch with him and had offered the chief minister's post to the Shiv Sena.
"Till today, I haven't got any call from the top BJP leadership. This is nothing but a ploy to malign the image of Shiv Sena," he quoted the Sena president as saying. Thackeray instructed the MLAs to stay together in Mumbai as they may be required any time, he said.
Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEH ... id=IN%3AenThere have been reports that the BJP also pursued Mr Pawar - his NCP is only two seats behind the Shiv Sena and can help the BJP cross the majority mark in Maharashtra - and that the NCP veteran was offered the President's post as bait.
Add that to the narrative.
Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
^^
Same was stated for Sena that UT has rebutted today .... Btw, NCP did support BJP last time and might support BJP again. For all we know, BJP might well deal with Sena again but they have been unwilling to go along with Sena's current demands/blackmail.
Moving on ...
https://twitter.com/ShekharGupta/status ... 2739748864
Coupta needs some lessons form history
https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/ ... 869972.ece
NRC is not a new idea, we have only updated the 1951 NRC list: CJI Ranjan Gogoi
Same was stated for Sena that UT has rebutted today .... Btw, NCP did support BJP last time and might support BJP again. For all we know, BJP might well deal with Sena again but they have been unwilling to go along with Sena's current demands/blackmail.
Moving on ...
https://twitter.com/ShekharGupta/status ... 2739748864
Coupta needs some lessons form history
https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/ ... 869972.ece
NRC is not a new idea, we have only updated the 1951 NRC list: CJI Ranjan Gogoi
Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
https://twitter.com/PTI_News/status/1197841184770576386
Do whatever you want but the credit for Ram Temple push will go to Modi/BJP only. Seems more like a defensive strategy to protect self/turf.Press Trust of India @PTI_News
Congress wants a "grand temple" to be built in Ayodhya, SC decision acceptable to all, says Rajasthan Deputy Chief Minister Sachin Pilot.
Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
#SoniaSena seems apt.
So is #KhichdiAlliance
So is #KhichdiAlliance
Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Let's look at some more facts
1 BJP is suffering in Bihar, Orissa by giving in to local parties in 1990s
2 On other hand BJP rough street presence is poor in MH compared to SS, Congress, NCP even they have organisational strengths.
3 BJP may start poaching left out unhappy MLAs after swearing in. Can they rope in Raj Thackeray?
4 Fadnavis made a play for muslim, Christian votes through his wife antics but fell between two boats. So he is hardly an icon of Hindutava. He could not build an image adequate enough to sweep the State nor was able to destroy NCP, Congress Eco system.
5 There cannot be Hindutava without powerful Hindu business & Hindu muscle power. BJP score is poor on both counts.
Let's see How it Plays out.
1 BJP is suffering in Bihar, Orissa by giving in to local parties in 1990s
2 On other hand BJP rough street presence is poor in MH compared to SS, Congress, NCP even they have organisational strengths.
3 BJP may start poaching left out unhappy MLAs after swearing in. Can they rope in Raj Thackeray?
4 Fadnavis made a play for muslim, Christian votes through his wife antics but fell between two boats. So he is hardly an icon of Hindutava. He could not build an image adequate enough to sweep the State nor was able to destroy NCP, Congress Eco system.
5 There cannot be Hindutava without powerful Hindu business & Hindu muscle power. BJP score is poor on both counts.
Let's see How it Plays out.
Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
I think SS strategy is that on Hinduthva items they can compromise for the sake of power, and just wait and watch because nothing much is going to happen. And in any case, even Pappu's slaves are saying this want grand Ram temple. So pretty much all of Pappu slaves' hate on Hindus has dissipated in one stroke.
I am not sure what ModiJi Shah thinking is, but maybe not putting Congoons on the dock with a triumphant mood of celebration post Ayodhya verdict was a mistake.
I got the following from #s from a libtrad's tweet, but I don't think the #s he is quoting are fake. Posting here just to debunk a couple of things: 1) BJP is invincible, and 2) there is no opposition to ModiJi/AS. I hope BJP does not believe in this media created hype about BJP's pervasiveness
I am not sure what ModiJi Shah thinking is, but maybe not putting Congoons on the dock with a triumphant mood of celebration post Ayodhya verdict was a mistake.
I got the following from #s from a libtrad's tweet, but I don't think the #s he is quoting are fake. Posting here just to debunk a couple of things: 1) BJP is invincible, and 2) there is no opposition to ModiJi/AS. I hope BJP does not believe in this media created hype about BJP's pervasiveness
-2017 was the peak when 71% of India’s population was under the BJP
-In 2018, after the loss of CG, MP & Rajasthan, it reduced to 51%
-And now as Maharashtra goes out of its hands, only 40% of India’s population remains under BJP rule.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
I don't understand this lament that BJP did nothing to form the govt in MH as if BJP leadership took sanyasa immediately after the results.
Do we really think that BJP is happy to let go a state like MH to Con party ?
I think some folks forget that BJP, at the end of the day is a Political party and AS is a mortal only. I don't think there is any grand chanakian niti in AS's pocket that he will spring on all of us. Everyone plays by the ear and as per their strength.
BJP could not stop JD+Cong to form the govt in KA earlier.
Do we really think that BJP is happy to let go a state like MH to Con party ?
I think some folks forget that BJP, at the end of the day is a Political party and AS is a mortal only. I don't think there is any grand chanakian niti in AS's pocket that he will spring on all of us. Everyone plays by the ear and as per their strength.
BJP could not stop JD+Cong to form the govt in KA earlier.
Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
BJP intriguingly is very quiet so far only some statements here and there but no strong criticism, no morcha dharna etc. In other circumstances a party would have brought its supporters on the street for protest but nothing of that sort. There is unusual quiet.
Either they have a plan or they are still in shock.
Either they have a plan or they are still in shock.
Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Katare,Katare wrote:ramana wrote:No they wont. Alighar Uty is a case in example.
Many HINOs are defending this Muslim Sanskrit teacher appointment as they think the issue is that of teaching language only.
The BHU appointment is not in the Dept of Languages but in the Dept of Hindu Religion and in contravention of the founders requirement.
Can you please quote where you getting your information from about department of Hindu Religion and founder”s requirements?
Below is interesting right up not sure how much of it is true.
Background and family info
OpIndia has multiple reports on the same:
https://www.opindia.com/2019/11/bhu-mus ... exclusive/
https://www.opindia.com/2019/11/bhu-stu ... -sanskrit/
https://www.opindia.com/2019/11/bhu-pro ... fake-news/
Add to this the upcoming SwarajyaMag's article from arguably the best investigating reporter of dharmic nature
https://twitter.com/swati_gs/status/119 ... 48640?s=20
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
^^vikasji do here remember the maulana modi trend on twitter few months back???
Need i say more...
Keep calm and believe in MARD..thats what i would say..all this is a distraction for what lies ahead..need not be related to maharashtra...All i have seen so since 2016 demo and J&K govt formation is they'll use this distraction to keep opponents busy with something else..
Here's my prediction,
1. they will let the three musketeers form govt
2. Let their Internal squabbles come to fore
3. Use ED/CBI against corruption cases: here BJP will have SS (BMC) by .....(fill in yourself)
4. Discredit jaichands of hindutva...
5. Ram mandir under their belt BJP doesnt need to tell anyone about their hindutva credentials..public knows who's at the help in Delhi/UP rather than in Mh
6.BJP will form marathi identity talk as well on the lines of SS through the poaches MLAs/MPs
what we I think is that this is a softer version of self purging...B-MC has screwed MH dev for long...
after 2-3 years down the line..just before the center elections....when this issue would have cooled down...and opposition would be busy grappling with other issue....you'd see a BJP govt in Mh...
Need i say more...
Keep calm and believe in MARD..thats what i would say..all this is a distraction for what lies ahead..need not be related to maharashtra...All i have seen so since 2016 demo and J&K govt formation is they'll use this distraction to keep opponents busy with something else..
Here's my prediction,
1. they will let the three musketeers form govt
2. Let their Internal squabbles come to fore
3. Use ED/CBI against corruption cases: here BJP will have SS (BMC) by .....(fill in yourself)
4. Discredit jaichands of hindutva...
5. Ram mandir under their belt BJP doesnt need to tell anyone about their hindutva credentials..public knows who's at the help in Delhi/UP rather than in Mh
6.BJP will form marathi identity talk as well on the lines of SS through the poaches MLAs/MPs
what we I think is that this is a softer version of self purging...B-MC has screwed MH dev for long...
after 2-3 years down the line..just before the center elections....when this issue would have cooled down...and opposition would be busy grappling with other issue....you'd see a BJP govt in Mh...
Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
I see that traitor media like print, wire, Undy etc are relentless in their Jihad against ModiJi on the economy. I speak to some friends and colleagues in India, and yes, there is concern, but not at the level these traitors make it out to be. In any case, Indian economy, is always a case of glass only a small percentage full. One can always pick and choose the negative aspects and harp on it.
But reason I am bringing this up is because is there any truth to the libtard claim that issues like 370, Ayodhya have run its course, and its the economy that is on the minds of people, and hence SS sensed this and they may not be hurt much because the nationalist issues have run their course?
But reason I am bringing this up is because is there any truth to the libtard claim that issues like 370, Ayodhya have run its course, and its the economy that is on the minds of people, and hence SS sensed this and they may not be hurt much because the nationalist issues have run their course?
Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
BREAKING - SOURCES : TWO TOP LEADERS OF NCP AND CONG GOT INTO AN ARGUMENT ON THE SPEAKERS POSITION. AFTER NCP PROMISED CONG THE SPEAKERS POSITION, TODAY THEY WENT BACK ON IT. SITUATION CAME TO A WALKOUT, HAD TO BE SALVAGED BY CALLING IT OFF FOR TODAY. #MaharastraPoliticalCrisis
Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
https://twitter.com/iMac_too/status/1197854983502221317
Next two months are going to be tough but the outlook will start clearing about the end of Jan/Feb beginning of 2020.
From Marathi channels .... Modi/Shah were so concerned about UT that they decided not to disturb him on government formation. Wah!iMac_too @iMac_too
Uddhav told his MLAs only Fadnavis tried to contact him after results. Modi-Shah didn't bother to trouble him. He shouldn't complain as his current tagline is महाराष्ट्राचे निर्णय महाराष्ट्रात होतील. BJP was doing exactly that.
Next two months are going to be tough but the outlook will start clearing about the end of Jan/Feb beginning of 2020.
Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Looking at SS's cocky confidence that they have sunk BJP and Congoon's new found respect for Ram, I am reminded of SuSwamy's political sagacity:
In general, to get people's imagination in India, you need:
1. Economy -> 33.333%
2. Hinduthva and emotional issues like 370 and Pak -> 33.333%
3. Clean corruption free governance -> 33.333%
No one issue alone dominates. And I think with #1 above on people's minds (if DDM obsession with it holds), #2 and #3 may not in themselves get people's imagination. SS's gambit is based on that thinking, and also why despite some media reports, there is no significant push back by the rank and file against UT's betrayal of Hinduthva cause.
In general, to get people's imagination in India, you need:
1. Economy -> 33.333%
2. Hinduthva and emotional issues like 370 and Pak -> 33.333%
3. Clean corruption free governance -> 33.333%
No one issue alone dominates. And I think with #1 above on people's minds (if DDM obsession with it holds), #2 and #3 may not in themselves get people's imagination. SS's gambit is based on that thinking, and also why despite some media reports, there is no significant push back by the rank and file against UT's betrayal of Hinduthva cause.
Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
The dog that did not bark ... hmmm
Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face ...
Meanwhile, the dama is unending even after Modi/Shah vacated the field ...
https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1197882203792797697
Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face ...
Meanwhile, the dama is unending even after Modi/Shah vacated the field ...
https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1197882203792797697
OR, perhaps that is why they are still squabbling i.e. because they have been given the complete field and full six months time .. No pressure.ANI @ANI
Ahmed Patel, Congress in Mumbai: Today's meeting (Congress-Shiv Sena-NCP) was inconclusive. The discussions will continue tomorrow.
Last edited by pankajs on 23 Nov 2019 01:36, edited 1 time in total.
Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
^^
Watch out for when BT starts appearing White robed ... Thankfully he at least is still in saffron.
Watch out for when BT starts appearing White robed ... Thankfully he at least is still in saffron.
Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Even if the economy had been doing well the media orgs you mentioned would have still been against Modi. They would have found something else to harp about. Can't gauge public opinion based on their utterances. They were saying the economy is in the toilet even before LS elections. Made no difference as far as elections were concerned.CRamS wrote:I see that traitor media like print, wire, Undy etc are relentless in their Jihad against ModiJi on the economy. I speak to some friends and colleagues in India, and yes, there is concern, but not at the level these traitors make it out to be. In any case, Indian economy, is always a case of glass only a small percentage full. One can always pick and choose the negative aspects and harp on it.
But reason I am bringing this up is because is there any truth to the libtard claim that issues like 370, Ayodhya have run its course, and its the economy that is on the minds of people, and hence SS sensed this and they may not be hurt much because the nationalist issues have run their course?
If the concern is the economy itself, then yes a downturn is definitely problematic and needs corrective measures. Even criticizing govt. policies for causing or worsening it is fine. But the people still remember the economic pain during UPA 2 which was felt more acutely perhaps due to high inflation. So even if the criticism of Modi govt. on economy is coming from aam aadmi it doesn't mean they want the Congress or someone else in power and will change their vote next time. The govt. still has time to fix things since this is just the start of their term. Hopefully they can assess the situation and fix it. That is after all why we wanted them in power, because they will at least try to do something instead of sitting on their musharrafs.
Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Some BJP MP has introduced a bill to "Free" Temples
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MhYriyDFpsg
Bill tabled to 'Free' Temples; Who behind this 'Historic Wrong'? | India Upfront [Times Now]
What is the game here? Why has it been introduced by a BJP MP as a personal bill and not the GOI.
But, it is still good now that this is getting airtime.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MhYriyDFpsg
Bill tabled to 'Free' Temples; Who behind this 'Historic Wrong'? | India Upfront [Times Now]
What is the game here? Why has it been introduced by a BJP MP as a personal bill and not the GOI.
But, it is still good now that this is getting airtime.
Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
Occam's razor explanation may not always be correct. A_Gupta ji is taking a minimalist/maximalist position.kittoo wrote: Yeah. Occam's razor/duck principal and all.
It is not "11 dimensional chess" or "string theory" but sacrificing a rook or a queen so that a checkmate can be gotten in a few moves after the sacrifice. If NCP plays the game better, then it is a stalemate till the Trio govt. can be pulled down.
Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
I would go with #UpmaAlliance over #khichidi. Maha is in the south after all.A_Gupta wrote:#SoniaSena seems apt.
So is #KhichdiAlliance
Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1
A brilliant analysis on the BHU issue by Ajit Bharti of Op India. This guy is incredible in his choice of words, sarcasm and wit. You have to have a deep knowledge of Hindi to enjoy it fully. His videos on Ravish Kumar are hilarious.