The Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to India's security environment, her strategic outlook on global affairs and as well as the effect of international relations in the Indian Subcontinent. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
Vikas wrote:If it was upto the 'Neutral' Journos, They would have installed the new found uber Secular Sh. Udhav Thackrey Ji on the CM throne and Matoshree would have been the new 10 Janpath for them.
Damn you BJP & Scam tainted Nephew !! Why can't you just roll over and die.
400% this would have happened in olden times when BJP would have taken "moral high ground" and allowed the SS-NCP combine to take shape
But then this is the new Modi-Shah era and the DDM/rest of Lutyens are yet to wrap it around their head even after all the thrashing over 6 years
Sachin wrote:
Once this "resort camping" starts then chances of MLAs diffecting is very less.
Unless... and hoping against hope here (SOS : Dilbu ji), they are being held to prevent going into the Sena-Congoons fold. All bets are off at this point.
In all this smoke and mirror show, no one really has wondered that why Congress MLA's are not being bought over. After all they have always been the ones ready to jump congress ship at the very first hint of Gandhi Ji.
Irrespective of what happens in Maha, SS and NCP have been stripped down with nowhere to hide.
SS no longer can go back to Hindutva or Congress bashing with any credibility while Maratha Strongman was left smarting for atleast few critical hours with no clue of what was happening around him.
I don't buy that Sharad pawar was on board, The operation started as soon as AS realized that Pawar was firmly in Sonia camp after that Farmer-issue related meeting and Plan B was put into action.
Ageing unwell strongman, Ambitious Nephew, Rookie daughter, worried moneybags, Extremely powerful/ruthless foe..
We all know how such stories end.
sajo21 wrote:Biggest indicator that BJP has thrown in the towel? Does he imply that all NCP MLAs who supported the new gobermint farmation have been "bought" back into the Pawarfold ?
Once this "resort camping" starts then chances of MLAs diffecting is very less. I am sure BJP also knows this. I have not seen very many occasions where MLAs herded in from these resorts generally getting a chance to vote for some one else.
Sachin, Resorts can be raided by CBI/ED/IT folks anytime. Remember the raid in Eagleton resort in Bangalore.
As MLA's evolve, They too learn how to sell themselves to highest bidder despite all the resort hopping. They did not become MLA by being meek, nice and Morally upright.
sajo21 wrote:Biggest indicator that BJP has thrown in the towel? Does he imply that all NCP MLAs who supported the new gobermint farmation have been "bought" back into the Pawarfold ?
Once this "resort camping" starts then chances of MLAs diffecting is very less. I am sure BJP also knows this. I have not seen very many occasions where MLAs herded in from these resorts generally getting a chance to vote for some one else.
This is why I am surprised BJP did not secure the NCP mlas supporting Ajit Pawar. Either they are extremely confident or they did not have their support in the first place. But why would AP gamble without being assured of such support?
I don't think it matters much. Now, NCP, Shiv Sena and Congress will be split to secure enough MLAs. That would have been the plan all along once the Shiv Sena had backstabbed.
hanumadu wrote:But why would AP gamble without being assured of such support?
Because he was asked to mislead BeeJayPee? NCP is Pawar and Pawar is NCP, when a person of that stature in the party contacts you, one would tend to think it might be true. He can always be taken back into NCP after all this unravels without much loss of H&D as long as some public statements like I was driven to desperation after seeing farmer's plight ityadi.
I doubt it. After what Ajit Pawar did, it will be difficult for anyone to take him back. Even if he goes back, he will be sidelined soon. So, AP will stay the course with BJP. The only question is how much influence can he use to poach people from SP.
Meanwhile, BJP will be working towards splitting Shiv Sena big time.
Congress-NCP-Shiva sena alliance is now dead. They have been exposed. People are questioning how can Congress support Shiv sena. No one can trust each other. So, current face saving exercises will go on and they will let the inevitable happen. DF will continue.
We are all one and together , watch our 162 together for the first time at grand Hyatt at 7 pm , come and watch you… https://t.co/ex96Wdh00N
— Sanjay Raut (@rautsanjay61)
and
BJP: There is no 'Operation Lotus', we have enough MLAs to prove majority. We are not threatening any MLA. Sanjay Raut's allegations are false, after a few days he will have to be sent to a mental hospital
Remember, when the MLAs assemble for voting, there will be NO Pawarful or Ahmed Patel inside. The senior-most Pawar inside will be Ajit Pawar along with Fadnavis.
And the speaker will decide the NCP Legislature party leader given that Ajit Pawar still claims that position.
Huge Worries in @PawarSpeaks camp of @NCPspeaks MLAs parked at mumbai hotel. Some hv told leadership that without @AjitPawarSpeaks party’s future bleak. They back Ajit on his stand that NCP ceding too much ground to @ShivSena. They don’t want 5 year term to Sena. @IndiaToday
Too close to make a guess especially with BJP keeping mum. Either they have lost their case or have a plan and are supremely confident.
Parades have no meaning .. it is just to impress the media and the voters. No one is even going to verify the people in the parade with actual elected MLAs after the first dozen or so prominent leaders. This is a farce.
Neither the Governor nor the courts will take cognizance of it. In-fact the courts refused to look at the Sena alliance support letters!
IF BJP gets it choice of speaker and Ajit Pawar stays with BJP and remains the NCP whip, the game is over for Sena alliance. NCP voters either vote for the alliance or get disqualified. BJP wouldn't mind either ways but the MLAs will have to decide if they want to risk re-election.
One reasons why NCP is making an all-out effort to get Ajit back.
Another note: In Karnataka, Yeddi forced Shah/Modi 1st time but this is Modi/Shah play. Modi/Shah wouldn't have rushed in if they did not have confidence. That is another difference.
sajo21 wrote:What a stupid lobby parade ? They think the Hon. Governor is going to check photos of that meet and have a change of heart?
Fadnavis is going on with meetings as usual.
Interesting to note the empty chair.
He's clearing the decks for a major bailout for farmers and ensuring the path to the bank (BMC) is tight shut until (largely loyal to the NCP) BJP attempts to sweep the corporator elections rendering the SS broke. It seems imminent we will have fresh elections, hence the desperation by the mahamilawat to get the SC involved and rona-dhona. Trust the ED/IT dept will be on standby with summons.
Ajit Pawar may turn out to be Himanta Sarma of Maha. He has rolled the dice and set in motion events that would reverberate in the Mantralaya of Mumbai for many years.
I doubt if he is a double agent working hands in glove with Pawar-ful people. Few months back I had read an article where he was quoted as saying, "We need to chart our own course, Kaka became CM when he was half our age". He is ambitious and can own whole of NCP if this gamble pays off.
BJP can use him to finish off whatever influence of Pawar is left.
It is either DF or fresh elections now.
pankajs wrote:Remember, when the MLAs assemble for voting, there will be NO Pawarful or Ahmed Patel inside. The senior-most Pawar inside will be Ajit Pawar along with Fadnavis.
And the speaker will decide the NCP Legislature party leader given that Ajit Pawar still claims that position.
Exactly. And I hate to quote this Indian Paki (like Saba Naqvi, Ayyub etc) who thinks its his birthright that Hindus must bend over backwards to appease Muslims (or else its 'majoritarianism'), but according to him (sure coming from his Cong handlers), whoever has the speaker wins. So if BJP can out maneuver everybody else and get speaker post, job can be accomplished.
Shiv Sainiks taking an oath in the name of Sonia Gandhi and Abu Azmi is supporting a SS Gov't. After all these years of politics what are the INC and Shiv Sena cadre thinking. Other than money surely some will be seeing the ideological irony.
Aditya_V wrote:Shiv Sainiks taking an oath in the name of Sonia Gandhi and Abu Azmi is supporting a SS Gov't. After all these years of politics what are the INC and Shiv Sena cadre thinking. Other than money surely some will be seeing the ideological irony.
Ideology always takes a back seat to money. Cong needs funds and MH is the ultimate cash cow. And supporting SS is ok because they have the exact same outlook (ideology as a means of loot). That is why UT was so eager to turn secular overnight. You can practically see the "₹" signs in his eyes like a cartoon.
We are all one and together , watch our 162 together for the first time at grand Hyatt at 7 pm , come and watch you… https://t.co/ex96Wdh00N
— Sanjay Raut (@rautsanjay61)
and
BJP: There is no 'Operation Lotus', we have enough MLAs to prove majority. We are not threatening any MLA. Sanjay Raut's allegations are false, after a few days he will have to be sent to a mental hospital
as per what times now TV said repeatedly, there were only 137 MLAs present at the parade and not 162.
Aditya_V wrote:Shiv Sainiks taking an oath in the name of Sonia Gandhi and Abu Azmi is supporting a SS Gov't. After all these years of politics what are the INC and Shiv Sena cadre thinking. Other than money surely some will be seeing the ideological irony.
What I learn is as long as party they support comes to power almost all supporters (of all parties) are okay with any arrangement, bar some exception. They think their core interest can be protected as long as their party hold the power in some or other form.
Aditya_V wrote:Shiv Sainiks taking an oath in the name of Sonia Gandhi and Abu Azmi is supporting a SS Gov't. After all these years of politics what are the INC and Shiv Sena cadre thinking. Other than money surely some will be seeing the ideological irony.
Ideology always takes a back seat to money. Cong needs funds and MH is the ultimate cash cow. And supporting SS is ok because they have the exact same outlook (ideology as a means of loot). That is why UT was so eager to turn secular overnight. You can practically see the "₹" signs in his eyes like a cartoon.
Sorry to burst the bubble but there are no honest politicians, at least in contemporary politics. Everyone you can think of - including BJP and Modi - have been participants in acts of omission, if not acts of commission at some point of time. We all know how horsetrading has happened in past state elections and how tainted politicians (eg Narayan Rane) have been inducted into BJP. The argument that SS and INC are desperate for Maha since the state is a cash cow also hold true for BJP. Before someone blows their steam, I’m a BJP supporter... Just that think that the BJP/Amit Pawar alliance is in the wrong here, they clearly do not have the majority (based on the parade of MLAs and affidavits). It doesn’t matter if Ajit Pawar fooled or double crossed BJP, they should now resign.
It’s also shocking that we think a 2am Governor recommendation, followed by a Cabinet waiver, PM approval under emergency powers, and 5:47am Presidential notification in the Gazette of India is okay - all so that a rickety last minute alliance doesn’t break.
pankajs wrote:Parades have no meaning .. it is just to impress the media and the voters. No one is even going to verify the people in the parade with actual elected MLAs after the first dozen or so prominent leaders. This is a farce.
Neither the Governor nor the courts will take cognizance of it. In-fact the courts refused to look at the Sena alliance support letters!
IF BJP gets it choice of speaker and Ajit Pawar stays with BJP and remains the NCP whip, the game is over for Sena alliance. NCP voters either vote for the alliance or get disqualified. BJP wouldn't mind either ways but the MLAs will have to decide if they want to risk re-election.
One reasons why NCP is making an all-out effort to get Ajit back.
Another note: In Karnataka, Yeddi forced Shah/Modi 1st time but this is Modi/Shah play. Modi/Shah wouldn't have rushed in if they did not have confidence. That is another difference.
#Breaking on INDIA UPFRONT with Rahul Shivshankar | Sources: Only 137 MLAs at Grand Hyatt. | #MahaMLAParade
Never mind the actual numbers. +/- 10 doesn't matter to my point. The gathering was a farce, packed with un-elected party members, designed to fool people and create a narrative. I was so disgusted by the unquestioning and often one-sided coverage by India Today that I switched off the feed. But these things don't remain hidden for long!
Rahul Kanwal can be pretty baised when it comes to creating anti-BJP narrative. These "neutral" jurnos, who normally try appearing balanced, could not hold back their glee today at the prospect of a BJP defeat.
Last edited by pankajs on 25 Nov 2019 23:04, edited 1 time in total.
Sure enemy of enemy is friendly and lovely and all that wisdom works until one of them supports corrosive exclusive ideology, or ideologies, wherein others should quickly solve that stinkhole that hides bigger problem.
And we got a lot of such shyt collectively called bif.
Dharma of a ruler is to protect their people even if they have to employ tactics that on a normal day and for a normal purpose would be considered adharmic. That is the dharma of a person when he/she get the throne.
I realized this truth on my own quite a while back but no one has to trust my word for it.
Trans
Ahimsa Paramo Dharma
Dharma himsa tathaiva cha
Meaning Non-violence is the ultimate dharma. So too is violence in service of Dharma.
Gandhi ji and our leftist want Indian/Hindus to forget the 2nd part of the equation and only focus on the first part so that we can all be led to the slaughter of our own free will.
Last edited by pankajs on 25 Nov 2019 23:13, edited 1 time in total.
nachiket wrote:
Ideology always takes a back seat to money. Cong needs funds and MH is the ultimate cash cow. And supporting SS is ok because they have the exact same outlook (ideology as a means of loot). That is why UT was so eager to turn secular overnight. You can practically see the "₹" signs in his eyes like a cartoon.
Sorry to burst the bubble but there are no honest politicians, at least in contemporary politics. Everyone you can think of - including BJP and Modi - have been participants in acts of omission, if not acts of commission at some point of time. We all know how horsetrading has happened in past state elections and how tainted politicians (eg Narayan Rane) have been inducted into BJP. The argument that SS and INC are desperate for Maha since the state is a cash cow also hold true for BJP. Before someone blows their steam, I’m a BJP supporter... Just that think that the BJP/Amit Pawar alliance is in the wrong here, they clearly do not have the majority (based on the parade of MLAs and affidavits). It doesn’t matter if Ajit Pawar fooled or double crossed BJP, they should now resign.
It’s also shocking that we think a 2am Governor recommendation, followed by a Cabinet waiver, PM approval under emergency powers, and 5:47am Presidential notification in the Gazette of India is okay - all so that a rickety last minute alliance doesn’t break.
As long as actual laws were not broken, everything is ok. Doesn't matter if it was 5:47am or 5:47pm. It doesn't say anywhere that you are not allowed to stake a claim to form govt. at certain times of the day. And no, they do not have to resign unless they fail the floor test in Vidhan Sabha. You can't just make up rules as you go along. MLA's being paraded at a hotel have as much meaning as parading a herd of buffalo.
Even if they had only 145 MLAs they should have done an individual head count. This is quite bizarre to organise an event for showing off the MLAs and not do a head count. Whose bright idea was this? #MaharashtraCrisis #MahaPoliticalTwist
#Breaking on INDIA UPFRONT with Rahul Shivshankar | Sources: Only 137 MLAs at Grand Hyatt. | #MahaMLAParade
Never mind the actual numbers. +/- 10 doesn't matter to my point. The gathering was a farce, packed with un-elected party members, designed to fool people and create a narrative. I was so disgusted by the unquestioning and often one-sided coverage by India Today that I switched off the feed. But these things don't remain hidden for long!
Rahul Kanwal can be pretty baised when it comes to creating anti-BJP narrative. These "neutral" jurnos, who normally try appearing balanced, could not hold back their glee today at the prospect of a BJP defeat.
Images playing out at Grand Hyatt hotel in Mumbai are @BJP4India worst nightmare. If @Dev_Fadnavis had allowed the Maha Aghadi to stew in its own differences, he would have acquired the halo of political martyrdom. Now he's brought himself to the same level as other netas. Mess.
The one card that Kaka/Sena can play is that Ajit will be CM for 2.5 years and Dy CM for 2.5 years (& vice versa for Uddhav T). That will be a slightly better deal for Ajit Pawar compared to 5 years of Dy CM under Fadnavis. Uddhav will also agree, because its either that or sitting in the opposition and watch Sena get decimated
Sachin wrote:
Once this "resort camping" starts then chances of MLAs diffecting is very less. I am sure BJP also knows this. I have not seen very many occasions where MLAs herded in from these resorts generally getting a chance to vote for some one else.
This is why I am surprised BJP did not secure the NCP mlas supporting Ajit Pawar. Either they are extremely confident or they did not have their support in the first place. But why would AP gamble without being assured of such support?
Forgot this one ... Friends, what if the MLAs returned with instruction from DF/AP on how to go about subverting the party from the inside, spread FUD and line up groups that will be ready to talk a switch, inside the assembly outside the reach of Pawarful? Has anyone considered the possibility hanji?
Nikhil T wrote:Sorry to burst the bubble but there are no honest politicians, at least in contemporary politics. Everyone you can think of - including BJP and Modi - have been participants in acts of omission, if not acts of commission at some point of time. We all know how horsetrading has happened in past state elections and how tainted politicians (eg Narayan Rane) have been inducted into BJP. The argument that SS and INC are desperate for Maha since the state is a cash cow also hold true for BJP. Before someone blows their steam, I’m a BJP supporter... Just that think that the BJP/Amit Pawar alliance is in the wrong here, they clearly do not have the majority (based on the parade of MLAs and affidavits). It doesn’t matter if Ajit Pawar fooled or double crossed BJP, they should now resign.
You suffer from what I call Raja Harishchandra syndrome
nachiket wrote:
Ideology always takes a back seat to money. Cong needs funds and MH is the ultimate cash cow. And supporting SS is ok because they have the exact same outlook (ideology as a means of loot). That is why UT was so eager to turn secular overnight. You can practically see the "₹" signs in his eyes like a cartoon.
Even religion takes a back seat to money. There is a going rate right now for independents with a commission built in for "influencers", and hard line Muslims are accepting money from right wing Hindus in the horse trading that is going on
Nikhil T wrote:Sorry to burst the bubble but there are no honest politicians, at least in contemporary politics. Everyone you can think of - including BJP and Modi - have been participants in acts of omission, if not acts of commission at some point of time. We all know how horsetrading has happened in past state elections and how tainted politicians (eg Narayan Rane) have been inducted into BJP. The argument that SS and INC are desperate for Maha since the state is a cash cow also hold true for BJP. Before someone blows their steam, I’m a BJP supporter... Just that think that the BJP/Amit Pawar alliance is in the wrong here, they clearly do not have the majority (based on the parade of MLAs and affidavits). It doesn’t matter if Ajit Pawar fooled or double crossed BJP, they should now resign.
You suffer from what I call Raja Harishchandra syndrome
Nikhil,
Sanjay is correct. But I would like to add some more points:
Following your logic Nikhil Sri Krishna/Pandavas should have never used Ghatotkacha during Mahabharata war since he was killer of so many people he would kidnap and then offer for bali (sacrifice) to Kali maa. Also, why not punish Dhrishtadyumna for killing Dronacharya in the manner he did.
There is a definition of Dharma given in Mahabharata where Sri Krishna (if I recall correctly) says Dharma is that which is good for large number of people in the long term.
INC & NCP are anti dharmic and hence against India. If they break up pro dharmic/Indic party alliance like BJP-SS then its not good for dharma and India. What is not good for dharma will not be good for most Indians (at a minimum for the dharmic lot) in the long term. However, if BJP breaks NCP it impedes anti dharmic forces in their progress and hence is good for India in the long run.
Morality is not born in vacuum nor is it wise to view it from prism of black & white or absolute positions.
While NCP was creating an alliance with Cong and SS, NCP formed Government with BJP. But NCP claims that they were not aware and NCP cheated NCP; however NCP is not angry against NCP and will not take any action against NCP, but wants NCP to come back.
So they are challenging Supreme court to disallow NCP to form Government and allow NCP to form Government. If you have understood, stop discussing politics. If not, politics was never your game!
Only Sharad Pawar can create this much chaos and confusion. I am convinced that this was his plan, not Ajit Pawar's. Here is what I think happened:
Sharad Pawar asked Ajit to send out feelers to BJP to discuss an alliance. Both Fadnavis and Amit Shah refused to accept anything from Ajit Pawar alone knowing SP's double-crossing nature.
So Sharad Pawar met Modi himself a few days back and agreed to forming the government. Even provided signed letters from his MLA's (the letters did not mention who they were forming the govt. with and I am 400% sure the MLA's were completely in the dark about this).
AS and Namo accepted and govt. formation plan went ahead. After it happened, SP threw up his hands claiming a coup by Ajit and that he was unaware of the whole thing. Now why would he do this? Simple, he had no intention of actually forming a govt. with BJP and running it for 5 years. Now he can force a floor test and bring it down.
This achieves 2 things. The less important thing (from SP's point of view) is that he damages Amit Shah's aura of being the Chanakya of politics. BJP gets egg on its face. The second and more important thing is that this finishes Ajit Pawar in the NCP. He will no longer be able to challenge Supriya Sule for leadership. SP knows he may not be around much longer and wanted to settle the leadership question once and for all. And used this opportunity to make a fool out of Ajit Pawar and destroy him politically (in the NCP at least).
nachiket wrote:Only Sharad Pawar can create this much chaos and confusion. I am convinced that this was his plan, not Ajit Pawar's. Here is what I think happened:
Sharad Pawar asked Ajit to send out feelers to BJP to discuss an alliance. Both Fadnavis and Amit Shah refused to accept anything from Ajit Pawar alone knowing SP's double-crossing nature.
So Sharad Pawar met Modi himself a few days back and agreed to forming the government. Even provided signed letters from his MLA's (the letters did not mention who they were forming the govt. with and I am 400% sure the MLA's were completely in the dark about this).
AS and Namo accepted and govt. formation plan went ahead. After it happened, SP threw up his hands claiming a coup by Ajit and that he was unaware of the whole thing. Now why would he do this? Simple, he had no intention of actually forming a govt. with BJP and running it for 5 years. Now he can force a floor test and bring it down.
This achieves 2 things. The less important thing (from SP's point of view) is that he damages Amit Shah's aura of being the Chanakya of politics. BJP gets egg on its face. The second and more important thing is that this finishes Ajit Pawar in the NCP. He will no longer be able to challenge Supriya Sule for leadership. SP knows he may not be around much longer and wanted to settle the leadership question once and for all. And used this opportunity to make a fool out of Ajit Pawar and destroy him politically (in the NCP at least).
+1 sir. To continue DF will not trust AP or SP in a game like this. If SP comes over full, NMji gamed that scenario already.
If only AP comes with 20-25 guys there seems to be some rule that will reduce the half way mark and disqualify NCP guys from participating/voting in the floor test. In other words ASji would have made sure NCP will not be in any government from thereon or be a threat in terms of numbers.
While this drama continues AS must have cornered all the independents, dissident SS folk to get to the needed numbers getting a better strategic hand.
I remember some murder/rapist MLA who was flown to Delhi in a private jet with full media coverage just to get the bargaining power of the JAT leader (devi laljis son ) who caved promptly. There is something to be said for quiet efficiency in getting stuff done.
.