2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 26 Nov 2019 03:36

I think Fadnavis has realised that the government may not last long and decided to make the most out of the time they have. They have already announced an aid package for the farmers in the state affected by unseasonal rains. The farmer distress due to the rains is real and needed immediate action. Now even if SS is able to form a government after toppling Fadnavis, they can't take credit for this since it has already happened. Will be helpful in subsequent elections.

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 26 Nov 2019 03:52

The Lutyen media are such a bunch of BJP hating scum bags. Note how all of them shed tears for detaining traitors like Mebooba Mufti etc for national security reasons. And these prestitutes have no problem with Pappu MLAs and SS MLAs being locked up like sheep.

Guys for those who think, everybody is guilty of immoral, unethical, hypocritical means to grab power, sure I agree. But the motives are what counts. Lets not lose sight of the fact that BJP was robbed in broad daylight after SS thugs went back on pre-poll alliance and the Congnoon b@stards started remote controlling them after that. As for SS louts, my God, I hate those scum bags.

Under the circumstances, for BJP to continue to rebuild India under ModiJi, Maha is too important a state to leave it in the hands of the crooks, traitors, thugs, and terrorists. Hence the Faustian bargain with NCP rebels. A gambit worth taking. And hats off to BJP leadership for coming back into the game. Whether they will cross the finish line remains to be seen. But no backing off. Worse comes to worse, re-election.

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 26 Nov 2019 04:10

CRamS wrote: Under the circumstances, for BJP to continue to rebuild India under ModiJi, Maha is too important a state to leave it in the hands of the crooks, traitors, thugs, and terrorists. Hence the Faustian bargain with NCP rebels. A gambit worth taking. And hats off to BJP leadership for coming back into the game. Whether they will cross the finish line remains to be seen. But no backing off. Worse comes to worse, re-election.

While I agree with what you are saying about fighting till the end, we have to keep in mind that in the short to medium term, BJP govt. cannot come to power in MH if elections are held again. BJP-SS cannot fight together again. Regardless of whether SS allies with NCP-Cong or fights separately, BJP does not have enough voteshare to overcome all of them. Making this current attempt work somehow is the only chance. But it is unlikely. The BJP is basically caught up in an intra-NCP Pawar-play which Ajit Pawar will lose.

vinod · Post by **vinod** » 26 Nov 2019 04:36

First, BJP is back in game and that is the biggest outcome. Secondly, there is a big turmoil within NCP-SS-Con alliance. Whether SP is in it or not is irrelevant. The way they have been trying to get back AP and the charade of MLAs in hotel indicates that they are getting desperate.
AP is the key cog in this whole govt mechanism now. It completely depends on him. Without AP, there is definitely no govt, and even if the BJP doesn't survive the floor test, it's difficult for the alliance to be formed again. The trust is at minimum now. So, AP's decision in the near future are crucial until floor test.

abhijitm · Post by **abhijitm** » 26 Nov 2019 09:53

Strange that bjp did not go after leaderless cong MLAs in MH, instead chose to split NCP and burn the bridges with SP.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 26 Nov 2019 09:58

twitter

Anti-Corruption Bureau Clarification on 9 enquires that were closed today. None of these enquires was in respect to NCP leader Ajit Pawar.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 26 Nov 2019 10:00

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 26 Nov 2019 10:14

twitter

A simple Oath taking Pledge has brought out so many challenges

1. Leadership sequence started with Sonia Gandhi

2. Party Names started with NCP

In both cases SS was last

What has Uddhav and Sanjya brought Balasaheb's Party to...

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 26 Nov 2019 10:39

abhijitm · Post by **abhijitm** » 26 Nov 2019 10:43

Fadnavis days are numbered. But the message AS has sent is strong that bjp will not go down without fighting and its never over.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 26 Nov 2019 11:09

To look at things from other side of the spectrum, Pawar may have played a game here but in Politics as in war, One never can predict the outcome of any action. Honestly tell me who are the actors to be trusted now for their word.
How would Ajit Pawar ever survive in NCP now. Will he go from being a Dy CM with DF to Dy CM with UT ?

Even if DF can't hold onto CM seat this time, I would look back at history and learn that Baji Rao- II and Raghunath Rao too had to face setbacks during their Maratha Empire building phase. So its alright.

PS: Will ED dept go after Pawar senior ?

arijitkm · Post by **arijitkm** » 26 Nov 2019 11:11

Rajendra Bhagwat, Maharashtra Legislature Secretary: The Legislature Secretariat has received a letter claiming that Jayant Patil is the Legislative Party Leader for NCP. But, decision has to be taken by the Speaker. As of today, no decision has been taken. -ANI

https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1199182369141358592

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 26 Nov 2019 11:24

I have a feeling BJP has done this, just to show it is weaker and that this not a relecant alliance but a pre planned enthusiastic alliance between SHiv Sena-INC NCP and Sp's Abu Azmi which the 4 parties would have like to show it as.

While at the top those in the 5 star circuit it can suit them, it has too many contradictions at the ground level and for the cadre who have fought each other for thier personal and business space, it cannot be run without one party's cadre being smashed up. If I were a Shiv Sanik I would be afraid that my bosses have taken me to the slaughter house for personal gain.

This will amply clear in 5-6 months, ROL and ROP are going to show their true colours. Shiv Sena as party will be dead. Cant belive after 1000 years of invasions, fools like Udhavav Thackeray, Sanjay Raut and Aditya Thackeray are being produced in Shivaji Maharaj's name. This cannot end well for those ordinary Shiv Sainiks at the ground level- they have been sold out for corrupt money and they will not get anything from thier Greedy bosses.

No wonder most parties choose ROL and ROP vote banks, they are far more stable and don't keep backstabbing their own side- their ecosystem is very good while the short term memory and as they say in Tamil the proverbial crab in the clay pot syndrome. In this forum itself I have " why should Modi enjoy Hindu votes" soo many times- its not about him its about us.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 26 Nov 2019 11:39

chetak wrote:

Sound fake or a media stunt. The 9 cases that were closed did not involve Ajit Pawar at all.

The coverage will tell you a lot about where the individual loyalities lie.

habal · Post by **habal** » 26 Nov 2019 11:39

mukul rohatgi had asked for 3 days from the supreme court before floor test. And he has got his request granted because he got sunday, monday, tuesday. And opp had asked for floor test with vote division videographed and they have got that also. Now key is selection of pro-tem speaker. If pro-tem speaker is from bjp then he can disqualify some mla's and then his objections will be again fought in court. Also there is a chance that governor can order fresh elections which was the real reason behind yesterday's parade so that world would see through governor's perfidy and bjp would be portrayed negatively in upcoming assembly election.

Also if MVA passes all tests and comes out as new rulers then ED cases would fly, left, right & centre against pawar and acolytes. AP has taken his insurance precisely because of this eventuality. Or atleast he tried.

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 26 Nov 2019 11:41

Floor test tomorrow. To be a live telecast.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 26 Nov 2019 11:41

abhijitm wrote:Fadnavis days are numbered. But the message AS has sent is strong that bjp will not go down without fighting and its never over.

Too early. A lot can happen between now and the floor test.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 26 Nov 2019 11:43

arijitkm wrote:Rajendra Bhagwat, Maharashtra Legislature Secretary: The Legislature Secretariat has received a letter claiming that Jayant Patil is the Legislative Party Leader for NCP. But, decision has to be taken by the Speaker. As of today, no decision has been taken. -ANI

https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1199182369141358592

Just the first of the options deployed. On expected lines.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 26 Nov 2019 11:45

habal wrote:mukul rohatgi had asked for 3 days from the supreme court before floor test. And he has got his request granted because he got sunday, monday, tuesday. And opp had asked for floor test with vote division videographed and they have got that also. Now key is selection of pro-tem speaker. If pro-tem speaker is from bjp then he can disqualify some mla's and then his objections will be again fought in court. Also there is a chance that governor can order fresh elections which was the real reason behind yesterday's parade so that world would see through governor's perfidy and bjp would be portrayed negatively in upcoming assembly election.

Also if MVA passes all tests and comes out as new rulers then ED cases would fly, left, right & centre against pawar and acolytes. AP has taken his insurance precisely because of this eventuality. Or atleast he tried.

Yup .. BJP got the time that it wanted.

If AP sticks with DF the chance of a BJP led give is high or it is re-election.

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 26 Nov 2019 11:52

Ajit Pawar is the NCP legislative party leader. MLAs must either obey his whip or be disqualified. Either way Farnavis would win the floor test. 'Ka-ka' is well aware of this and is trying to appear 'secular' as a face saver. The NCP can be wound up within one day by the ED and CBI with raids and warrants on all the main NCP leaders.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 26 Nov 2019 12:02

^^
Till DF has Shah/Modi backing, it is immaterial what lobby is supporting whom within BJP. Rest is all khayali pulao.

BJP allowed the SS Mayor as a signal and peace offering to Sena that was harmless/costless by itself. Obviously, Sena thought they deserved more.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 26 Nov 2019 12:05

Was there any ruling by the SC on pro-term speaker?

https://twitter.com/news18dotcom/status ... 5866750976

News18.com @news18dotcom

The following 6 names have been submitted for Protem Speaker to the Governor.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 26 Nov 2019 12:08

https://www.news18.com/news/politics/ma ... 00341.html

Nov 26, 2019 11:30 am (IST)

Seniority Convention for Protem Speaker Was Broken in Karnataka Case | The seniority for MLA to be appointed protem speaker is a convention that was controversially set aside by Karnataka Governor Vajubhai Vala last year when the BJP's KG Bopaiah was appointed as one even though the Congress' RV Deshpande was the seniormost.

Nov 26, 2019 11:45 am (IST)

Ajit Pawar Arrives at Fadnavis' Residence | Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar arrives at the residence of CM Devendra Fadnavis after the Supreme Court ordered for a floor test tomorrow.

Seems there is no SC direction pro-term speaker so the Gov. has full discretion.
https://twitter.com/YRDeshmukh/status/1 ... 0332851201

Yashwant Deshmukh @YRDeshmukh

You are correct. Eventually it's all up to the Governor. And let's also take a moment to understand the fact that SC has only pre-poned the vote. It did not point out that Governor of Maharashtra has done anything out of the book.

For such a high stakes play, expect EVERY call of the Governor to be challenged in the SC. It is far from being over by tomorrow.

Also note,
https://twitter.com/news18dotcom/status ... 1588942848

News18.com @news18dotcom

The Supreme Court, talking about constitutional morality, cited the Uttarakhand ruling and the Bihar Jagdambika Pal case.

Not cited Karnataka ruling as far as I read from the bit floating around.

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 26 Nov 2019 12:19

Some third degree treatment of Chidambaram would not hurt either (except him, of course).....

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 26 Nov 2019 12:24

https://twitter.com/utkarsh_aanand/stat ... 7397786624

Utkarsh Anand @utkarsh_aanand

Operative part of the #SupremeCourt order today on the floor-test in #Maharashtra.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 26 Nov 2019 12:34

Assuming DF wins the vote of confidence (I expect violence in assembly tomorrow)), Where would that leave SS ?
I think DF would quit in case he doesn't have numbers even before the voting. Lets hope AS is a better player than we think he is.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 26 Nov 2019 12:37

IF DF wins, I expect Sena to break sooner or later.

abhijitm · Post by **abhijitm** » 26 Nov 2019 12:38

Vikas wrote:Assuming DF wins the vote of confidence (I expect violence in assembly tomorrow)), Where would that leave SS ?
I think DF would quit in case he doesn't have numbers even before the voting. Lets hope AS is a better player than we think he is.

This looks to me karnataka redux. Anyway, you got to try everything.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 26 Nov 2019 12:47

https://twitter.com/utkarsh_aanand/stat ... 3318835200

Utkarsh Anand @utkarsh_aanand

Sibal also mentioned before the bench about the application to stop Fadnavis from taking policy decisions. Court didn't say anything about it. Sibal concluded by saying he hopes good sense will prevail. #SupremeCourt has given 8 weeks for all the parties to file replies.

Nikhil T · Post by **Nikhil T** » 26 Nov 2019 12:57

pankajs wrote:https://twitter.com/utkarsh_aanand/stat ... 7397786624
Utkarsh Anand @utkarsh_aanand

Operative part of the #SupremeCourt order today on the floor-test in #Maharashtra.

Good decision. This spectacle of who gets the gaddi isn’t good for democracy and should end ASAP.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 26 Nov 2019 13:08

First of all, yes the spectacle of Back stabbing voters should also be stopped, it was clear that a clear pre poll alliance between SS-NCP-INC-Sp leadership. Sanjay Raut, Sonia Gandhi, Abu Azmi, Udhav Thackerey, Sharad Pawar should have clearly announced thier alliance to the public before polls. Just like anti defaction law this must also be passed in law. You can switch pre poll alliance for 3 years.

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 26 Nov 2019 13:31

Since it is not a secret ballot, and there has to be a video recording, I wonder whom will this benefit? I would have thought that had it been a secret ballot, those MLAs in favor of BJP but paraded at those 5-star hotels as a show of strength would vote for BJP. But now with cameras glaring down on them, they may not be as easily inclined to cross party lines.

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 26 Nov 2019 13:33

My thoughts as well.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 26 Nov 2019 13:41

CRamS wrote:Since it is not a secret ballot, and there has to be a video recording, I wonder whom will this benefit? I would have thought that had it been a secret ballot, those MLAs in favor of BJP but paraded at those 5-star hotels as a show of strength would vote for BJP. But now with cameras glaring down on them, they may not be as easily inclined to cross party lines.

Yes .. only Sena MLAs are allowed to cross ideological line in full glare of the public with band, baja and baraaat like yesterday. Everything else is a matter of shame.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 26 Nov 2019 13:56

NCP is spending a lot of time & effort to bring AP back into their folds before the trust vote.

IF there is no risk from AP, they would just let him be while keeping a path for return open (No open threat/bashing, etc). Once DF/AP are defeated on the floor, he will loose whatever little credibility he had and will come back to the party fold on his own. Even if a little maska is required, it will be much less AFTER his bluff is called than before. Plus, a diminished AP will make the transfer of the party from Pawarful to Supriya that much easier.

Net-net, a confident NCP should let AP get a dose of reality (in their confident view) and wait for his ultimate return to the party. The fanatic effort being spent on AP by the NCP suggest the opposite to me. Instead of a confident party it suggests a nervous party.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 26 Nov 2019 14:20

After doing a night and morning of propaganda on behalf of Sena/NCP/CON alliance, the News18 releases tweets this about 4 hrs back to show its "neutrality". Wah!

https://twitter.com/CNNnews18/status/11 ... 2977724416

News18 @CNNnews18

#BREAKING – No headcount at Hotel, NCP releases the list of 162 MLAs.

Ajit Pawar’s name missing from the list of 162 MLAs.

Details by @vinivdvc and @utkarsh_aanand | #MahaPoliticalYudh

They are handed a script and they run with it. After they have hammered the fake news in the minds of the gullible public they issues a tweet with the actual fact which will not be read by most already seeded with propaganda. Similar to earlier bold face lie on front page and a retraction/clarification on the back pages in small print.

sajo · Post by **sajo** » 26 Nov 2019 14:45

Ajit Pawar has resigned. Devendra Fadnavis to follow suite. This is as per Marathi news channels.

This is truly a cockup of epic proportions from the BeeJayPee.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 26 Nov 2019 14:48

abhijitm wrote:
Vikas wrote:Assuming DF wins the vote of confidence (I expect violence in assembly tomorrow)), Where would that leave SS ?
I think DF would quit in case he doesn't have numbers even before the voting. Lets hope AS is a better player than we think he is.
This looks to me karnataka redux. Anyway, you got to try everything.

Its OK to not get the CMship. Tried, didn't work, will try again.
This is not Panipat-3.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 26 Nov 2019 14:49

^^ If true, a big muck up.

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/s ... 2019-11-25
Sharad Pawar reveals disagreement with Sena, Congress over sharing CM post led to delay in govt formation

sajo · Post by **sajo** » 26 Nov 2019 14:51

pankajs wrote:^^ If true, a big muck up.

Now appearing on Marathi News portals as well.