2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

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Vikas
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Vikas »

Sachin wrote:What is the goose with Rahul Bajaj? Any raids or tax frauds detected or some thing similar coming his way?
Day after industrialist Rahul Bajaj’s comments, BJP minister claims ‘fake narratives’ being created
/sarc on

Rahul Bajaj is right. See how he was criticizing Sonia Govt day in day out and that too openly.
He even called out Congress deceit during opening up of economy in 1991 and predicted doomsday and also led the so called Bombay Club.
/sarc off
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Vikas »

pankajs wrote:
g.sarkar wrote:https://www.rediff.com/news/report/fadn ... 191202.htm
Fadnavis made CM to save Centre's Rs 40K cr funds: Anant Kumar Hegde
My impression about this guy is that he is a loud mouth. Being loudmouth is not bad by itself but being loudmouth to show how great or connected you are does not serve any purpose.

1. IIRC, he has made so many tangential comments in the past that it is difficult for me personally to trust his words.
2. Was there a need to take credit?
3. Will the credit help BJP get more votes in either Karnataka or Maharashtra?
4. Can a caretaker CM take such a decision?
5. If it is true, it can also be spun as Center stealing Maharashtra's money. The fact that is was Center's money gets lost in the din.

How phenomenally unthinking can leaders he? Why is it so difficult to admin that BJP was outplayed by Pawarful rather than invent CTs to protect H&D? In certain situation it is needed but not in this case.
In this CT, Fadanavis part I can buy, But what Ajit's majboori in going along with this plan. What was he saving ? His urine that could fill up the canals.
Isn't it silly to think that a state can just utilize funds provided by center for a specific purpose for any purpose it wants. It isn't like 40K crore were sitting in current account of Maha govt.

No shame in accepting that BJP rolled the dice but could not get the right numbers. I hope UT is successful and eats up all the political space occupied by NCP and Congress. Who knows He may even get Fundoo votes which were so animical to SS.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by ArjunPandit »

^^these guys must have ED/NIA breathing fire down their necks...
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by UlanBatori »

At what point can a Recall Petition be accepted, to scrap the whole MH election and start over? With all the present Cabinet at least, banned? MH is heading for the Keralam model.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Vikas »

ArjunPandit wrote:^^these guys must have ED/NIA breathing fire down their necks...
My 2 cents..
Dots don't connect. NM/AS waited for so many days before making their move to transfer 40K Cr back into central kitty. It isn't some loose change that account books could hide. This could have been a by product of the whole 'early morning oath' saga.
To assume that other than BJP, every other party is out there to screw India is also hard to digest (not including Commies and Cong) no is a grand strategy to go to the public.
If ED/NIA was so powerful, We would have seen whole of Congress and NCP joining BJP en-mass.
Didn't happen. Enforcement agencies are anyways overrated in India with prosecution rate in single digits especially against powerful people.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Lekhraj »

No money transfer happened. DF Clarifies:

https://www.hindustantimes.com/videos/i ... 5kn1L.html
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by pankajs »

Lekhraj wrote:No money transfer happened. DF Clarifies:

https://www.hindustantimes.com/videos/i ... 5kn1L.html
Anant Kumar Hegde is a repeat offender, IIRC.

The fact that an ex-CM of a state of your own party had to refute you does not reflect well on anyone. Plus it provides ammunition to opposition either ways.

Why indulge in CT when it is far simpler to admit that BJP was outplayed by Pawarful. Hyping a situation is ok but circulating CT at his level is not. Whatsapp gyan should be limited to Whatsapp folks.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by ArjunPandit »

somdev, I am not sure how you are getting the small % of numbers. Based on my limited experience with delhi and east delhi..majority of them are not what you say..in fact it is other way around.and they've multiplied fast..

i do not disagree that it is a landmine..even if majority are from the other side, what do we do? expecting bangladesh to take them back is plain stupid..it is not going to be a small number. My view on it is ..this is a battle to be fought for later time ..UCC is more rewarding
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Lekhraj »

"UCC is more rewarding"

+108
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by SBajwa »

ArjunPandit wrote:somdev, I am not sure how you are getting the small % of numbers. Based on my limited experience with delhi and east delhi..majority of them are not what you say..in fact it is other way around.and they've multiplied fast..

i do not disagree that it is a landmine..even if majority are from the other side, what do we do? expecting bangladesh to take them back is plain stupid..it is not going to be a small number. My view on it is ..this is a battle to be fought for later time ..UCC is more rewarding
Even in rural punjab you can see these bangladeshi muslims making jaggery and doing other odd jobs apart from theft,etc.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by fanne »

Somdev ji, your love for BJP's well being is very touching and heart warming. One piece of advice, FWIW, one can have 180 degree view on something, but treating the other side by insulting their intelligence will not take anyone far.
If you read, BJP has two parts of the NRC draft 1) Catch all non citizens 2) All Hindus non citizens (and other religion) except one particular religion (because they already have a country granted on the basis of their religion) will be granted Indian citizenship.
This is the draft agreement in parliament and also NM/AS has repeated it million of times in Assam/WB elections. So please, stop thinking we at BR are some stupid guys who will be dazzled by Marx and Mamta and just accept anyone's explanation. RW can be accused of anything but not lack of logical thinking and of lying where as LW is defined by these two qualities.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by pankajs »

^^
Yes Somdev's concern for BJP is indeed very touching and you have covered the counters well. Just my 2 cents ...

1. NRC was already a hotly debated issues when GE 2019 poll happened in Assam and Bengal when BJP got it tremendous mandate.
2. In the rest of the state, there is hardly any concern from BJP's core base ad also the rest of the citizens.
3. CAB, that is expected to be introduced very soon, will precede the nationwide NRC. This too has been declared publicly on multiple occasions. That should allay fears of Hindu migrants from Bangladesh.
4. NRC, like the RJB grenade left for the BJP by CON, will help propel BJP forward. The harder the opposition gangs up on NRC the sharper the BJP messaging will become as happened with RJB where they remained the only party to get credit for their stand.

Btw, the way people are reporting Bangladeshis across the country, there are more than a handful of them.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Sanju »

Vikas wrote:What is going on with Pankaja Munde, daughter of Gopinath Munde.
Is she going to quit BJP and join NCP or SS now ?
She is giving enough hints to BJP leadership. Now sure what exactly she wants.
Vikas ji,
This is CW Report, so TIFWIW. The seat was given to her brother apparently and so the khujli.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Rajesh_MR »

^ Was there a comment from Mr Bajaj also about someone being in jail for 100 days?
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Supratik »

He is trolling. I believe he was on BRF doing the same thing in the past and got banned. Mamata is giving some soundbites about NRC but all west bengalies want NRC. And even if TMC wins doesn't matter. All data is going to be put into database. Can be revisited even after 500 years. And CPIM asked their voters to shift to BJP!!! He is smoking something strong.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by abhik »

I'm not sold on nation wide NCR either, it is going to be like exercising the nuclear option like another DeMo, it will cause huge disruptions, collateral damage and may not really yield results proportional to the cost. Every loophole will be exploited and most of the illegals may get through the process.

BTW what is stopping the govt from utilizing the existing laws (or pass more stringent ones) to track and deport infiltrators? We hear about cases like Rohingyas ending up in J&K (of all the places) yet we rarely hear about what the government is actually doing about it.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Supratik »

If you just do NRC in AS and WB, illegal immigrants will hide in other states. Hence, you need NRC for entire nation. Why go into deportation when pressure works. 2,5 million people have already left AS without any deportation. They simply did not apply for registration. Another 1.9 million are stuck probably because they have family and economic interests. Another 2 million have fraudulently entered the NRC. Hence, need to revisit AS NRC.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by pankajs »

People who do not get it should read Justice Gogoi's interview (???)

Once a nation wide NRC is done Indian citizenship is locked.

After that addition will be by
1. Being born to a NRC parents already in the central DB. Ideally the record will be update at birth or at the latest when birth certificate is issued.
2. To a very limited extent by a standard formal process for non-citizens.

Anyone showing up with ration card, passport, etc but not present in the central DB will be an illegal after NRC. Anyone in doubt can be checked against the central DB.

Even if EVERY illegal get through it will ensure that NO MORE get added. It is that simple.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Supratik »

It doesn't matter even if TMC wins all 294 seats and rules for another 500 years. NRC data is going into database and therefore is permanent. Plus West Bengali Hindus who have voted for TMC are in favor of NRC. Everyone knows Mamata raised the issue of illegal immigration when she was with NDA. Plus CAB is coming next week. You are writing rubbish.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by fanne »

Somdev ji 2021 is little far. Can you please predict the mega lottery ticket numbers for tomorrow? The jackpot id $266 million. I will share half with you. Pretty please, you have to only predict till tomorrow (I am not asking till 2021). Please?
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by pankajs »

somdev wrote:
Supratik wrote:He is trolling. I believe he was on BRF doing the same thing in the past and got banned. Mamata is giving some soundbites about NRC but all west bengalies want NRC. And even if TMC wins doesn't matter. All data is going to be put into database. Can be revisited even after 500 years. And CPIM asked their voters to shift to BJP!!! He is smoking something strong.
The results of state election in 2021 will prove otherwise. TMC will win assembly seats majority easily and form the next government. BJP's gain in Lok Sabha seats will not reflect in assembly elections. Already the BJP's rural support base is going down everyday due to issues around MNREGA cuts and funds not available to largely rural BPL population. The 'Matua' community, the most deprived namashudra SC Bengali community who had migrated from Bangladesh and who had voted for the BJP are scared of NRC now. TMC has made considerable progress in winning back the vote bank. Local BJP leaders in West Bengal are good for nothing and most have flocked from Congress or TMC anyways (that too tainted ones) and very few have any RSS background or ideological leanings.

The problem with you guys is you cannot digests counter logic and come down to personal level finger pointing and then whataboutery follows. I am just putting forward my views in plain and simple English in a political analysis thread. If you do some basic research at a grass-root level in Bengal then you will realise that I am not talking rubbish. If that is not allowed then I would rather shut up and not participate.
You are being selective in your facts ...

1. IIRC, most of the central schemes have been either rejected by Mumtaz or re-named. So the question of debit or credit to Modi on schemes are out of question.
2. Have you not heard of CAB? It is to be tabled by 10th Dec and is expected to be passed in this session. CAB will ensure that ALL Hindus refugees including 'Matua' will be granted citizenship BEFORE nationwide NRC is conducted.
3. Voters in 3 Seats which will not overturn the government will not risk voting against the ruling party in WB. This is not indicative of how things will turn in WB assembly.

What I have written is also in plain and simple English. The problem with you is that you are selective with facts and "cannot digests counter logic and come down to personal level finger pointing and then whataboutery follow".

Theek hai.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by pankajs »

somdev wrote:See for yourself the recently concluded by-election results in West Bengal. TMC won all three. BJP's state president Dilip Ghosh could not even hold on to his own seat Kharagpur which he vacated on becoming a MP. Even Congress lost its Kaliaganj seat which was its stronghold since 1960s barring three terms to CPI(M). Just check for yourself how many votes CPI(M) polled in Kharagpur seat and where did the CPI(M) committed votes go :D
:rotfl:

I also recall a WB election just before GE 2019. Was it Bengal panchayat polls ??? Mautaz Bano-jee's party swept it too!! :wink:
Voters are smart these days.

Here is the the details
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/cit ... 213554.cms
TMC sweeps Bengal rural polls [May 18, 2018 | Exactly a year before GE 2019]
Trinamool Congress has gained an unprecedented stranglehold on Bengal’s three-tier village administrative system, gaining 95% of zilla parishad seats, 90% of panchayat samiti seats and 73% of gram panchayat seats that went for polling and for which results were declared on Thursday night.
Kuch kuch hota hai .. kahi kabhi.
Last edited by pankajs on 03 Dec 2019 00:52, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by pankajs »

somdev wrote::D :D :D :D Sure I will be back again in this thread in 2021 ... till then I won't write anything :D
We will miss you analysis. :(( :(( :(( :((
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Rony »

somdev wrote:See for yourself the recently concluded by-election results in West Bengal. TMC won all three. BJP's state president Dilip Ghosh could not even hold on to his own seat Kharagpur which he vacated on becoming a MP.
viewtopic.php?f=1&t=7717&start=320#p2397499
https://twitter.com/rishibagree/status/ ... 98913?s=20

Stunning meltdown of Left Front in West Bengal by-elections.
Who could have imagined Left Front which ruled West Bengal with iron fist for Three decades would be reduced to just 3% vote share from 30%+ in matter of 3 years.

West Bengal is moving towards bipolar showdown in 2021



https://twitter.com/rishibagree/status/ ... 47072?s=20

Vote Share In 2019 WB Assembly Bypolls:
TMC: 47.4%
BJP: 39.2%

In 2016 WB Assembly Election:
BJP: 10%

Although TMC won all 3 West Bengal Assembly seats which went for bypolls, the vote share of BJP has jumped 4 times and they have been able to retain all of their Lok Sabha gains
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Re: Airborne Early Warning & Control: News & Discussion

Post by SBajwa »

nachiket wrote:Isn't Embraer still on the blacklist? Will the MoD suddenly see the light and remove them from it because it is a critical need? I wouldn't hold my breath.

Very sorry for OT!!!!

BJP must must win for next 3 General elections and have sufficient representation in Rajya Sabha! Will not happen if they keep aligning with regional idiots like UT. need to cut them lose.


REMEMBER!!!!! and never forget the battles of panipat were lost due to technology and nothing else!!! Maharana Pratap and Shivaji were very very brave but did not had the technology of Mughals which they acquired from British/French/Chinese (gun powder), etc.

We must keep on building the defense and forgetting the idiotic articles about 4.5% economic growth (do not mean much in long term of things)!! Defense is the and the only key to survive.!!! 50% for defense and 50% for rest!!!! considering we have panda's, terrorists and others around us who have hurt us in past.
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Re: Airborne Early Warning & Control: News & Discussion

Post by nachiket »

SBajwa wrote: REMEMBER!!!!! and never forget the battles of panipat were lost due to technology and nothing else!!! Maharana Pratap and Shivaji were very very brave but did not had the technology of Mughals which they acquired from British/French/Chinese (gun powder), etc.

We must keep on building the defense and forgetting the idiotic articles about 4.5% economic growth (do not mean much in long term of things)!! Defense is the and the only key to survive.!!! 50% for defense and 50% for rest!!!! considering we have panda's, terrorists and others around us who have hurt us in past.
Bajwa saab I moved your post here since we don't usually allow political discussions in Mil Forum.

As to your points, just want to make a few corrections.

Shivaji has nothing to do with Third Battle of Panipat which was fought 81 years after his death. And there were numerous reasons for that loss. Technological disparity was only one of them. Abdali had an advantage but it wasn't like First battle of Panipat where Babur had all the artillery and Ibrahim Lodhi had none. Marathas had Ibrahim Khan Gardi and his artillery and musket troops on their side who by all accounts fought very well with Ibrahim Khan himself fighting to the death even when it was obvious that the battle was lost.

As for your larger point it is well taken. The whole defense acquisitions process needs serious political attention. Modi govt. has been far better at looking after defense needs than previous governments (especially UPA I and II). But even they seem to have their limits in finding a way out of the morass. Right now our own rules and red tape along with ossified attitudes in MoD, OFB and even armed forces are leading to us tying our own hands not using whatever capital is available anywhere near as optimally as we should be. Lets hope things change going forward. Maybe Rajnath ji can do something.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Sanju »

But even they seem to have their limits in finding a way out of the morass.
Maybe this was what Modiji was referring to when he told the IAS officers that he wasn't going to me them come in his way this term like thet get did in the previous term.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by KL Dubey »

Uddhav and Aditya and their followers (Raut et al) have shown themselves to be dorky/shameless enough that they will swallow any insults from NCP or INC to stay in "power"...."pad hai lekin kad nahin". There are umpteen opportunities to probe and weaken this illegitimate coalition, I think most of the BJP's "work" will be on NCP and INC. They may leave the SS alone for a while since these guys are just the "small fry". These idiots have barely 19% seats in one state assembly and have lost deposits in every other state where they contest against BJP...but have started seeing pipe dreams of making it big nationally.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Vayutuvan »

somdev wrote:In 2019 GE for West Bengal Lok Sabha election result was a bonanza for BJP. Indeed it t was but why? BJP had no booth level organisation before Mukul Roy came into scene. He used his organisation skills to enhance BJPs chances. Further, CPI(M) cadres to save their skins transferred their vote enmasse to BJP to prevent TMC winning seats. That trend has reversed now and Didi will win thumping majority in 2021 state elections. Mukul Roy is already sidelined in Bengal BJP. Dilip Ghosh the state BJP president and MP could not even hold on to the Kharagpur assembly seat in the recent by-election
Sire, Som___, do you still support MNREGA? inquiring minds want to know. Please do illuminate, my friend. I am a little weak on comprehension. I hope you take that into account. What are views on Prince Andrew?!!! :wink: :mrgreen:
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Sachin »

Pankaja Munde not quitting BJP: Maharashtra party chief
This may be true or false. But looks like INC-NCP-Shiv Sena combo is planning to place lots of IEDs on BJP's path. The party may have to do fire fighting in lots of areas, which will give the "seculars" some breathing space.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Vikas »

Sachin wrote:Pankaja Munde not quitting BJP: Maharashtra party chief
This may be true or false. But looks like INC-NCP-Shiv Sena combo is planning to place lots of IEDs on BJP's path. The party may have to do fire fighting in lots of areas, which will give the "seculars" some breathing space.
Also like hot money, Lot of turncoats jumped ship and joined BJP in recent past assuming that BJP will form govt but now that the plans have gone south, will run back to the mothership. We may see some more churning in next few months.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

SBajwa wrote:
ArjunPandit wrote:somdev, I am not sure how you are getting the small % of numbers. Based on my limited experience with delhi and east delhi..majority of them are not what you say..in fact it is other way around.and they've multiplied fast..

i do not disagree that it is a landmine..even if majority are from the other side, what do we do? expecting bangladesh to take them back is plain stupid..it is not going to be a small number. My view on it is ..this is a battle to be fought for later time ..UCC is more rewarding
Even in rural punjab you can see these bangladeshi muslims making jaggery and doing other odd jobs apart from theft,etc.
they have flooded the andaman and nicobar islands, trying to pass off as local bengalis. :mrgreen:
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by vimal »

See and Cry :cry: :cry:

Image
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Vikas »

vimal wrote:See and Cry :cry: :cry:

Image
Par for course. Lot of new govts do that to recalibrate who gets how much because of new realities. Nothing to worry.
Everyone falls in line eventually.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by ArjunPandit »

chetak wrote:
SBajwa wrote:
Even in rural punjab you can see these bangladeshi muslims making jaggery and doing other odd jobs apart from theft,etc.
they have flooded the andaman and nicobar islands, trying to pass off as local bengalis. :mrgreen:
exactly that's my point. Not many would remember that ABV govt started this back in 2000-01. One was BD picked up by Delhi police, i think it was seelampur, under some flimsy petty crime excuse, the peaceful group surrounded the police station, freed the guy (supposedly was their leader) and burnt the station..the newspaper headline TOI and NT were surprisingly silent on the fate of cops..i cant find it now..but i am absolutely sure of the event that happened
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

Sachin wrote:Pankaja Munde not quitting BJP: Maharashtra party chief
This may be true or false. But looks like INC-NCP-Shiv Sena combo is planning to place lots of IEDs on BJP's path. The party may have to do fire fighting in lots of areas, which will give the "seculars" some breathing space.




Her father almost brought down pawarful peoples.

He was persuaded by his allies to let go of the death grip.

this is not a lady who will jump ship.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by sajo »

chetak wrote: Her father almost brought down pawarful peoples.

He was persuaded by his allies to let go of the death grip.

this is not a lady who will jump ship.
As we have so recently seen, actions of a powerful and influential father seem to have little or no bearing on the idealogical compass of the offspring, atleast in MH.
BJP will have a tough time keeping its flock together.

One off incident : Got chatty with a driver employed by my Org today. He is from Yavatmal, far from the "Marathi Manoos" politics of Mumbai, and a self proclaimed sainik since 2 decades now, with the only motivator of Sena being further to the right of BJP. He and his fellow workers from that region are deeply hurt with the alliance. I chose to further rub it in by showing a photo of Abu Azmi with the Sainiks. I say, its open season now. BJP can easily capitalize on it, go soul harvesting like our friends from the EJs do. Pump money into the state unit, recruit a few Sena musclemen, show that they are now their only hope. DF can go easy on these elements until the Hindu consolidation happens.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Karthik S »

I think DF being a brahmin will be at a big disadvantage now. BJP needs to find a marathi face. BTW, can't gadkari replace DF as CM face?
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by KL Dubey »

Karthik S wrote:I think DF being a brahmin will be at a big disadvantage now. BJP needs to find a marathi face. BTW, can't gadkari replace DF as CM face?
Total confusion...marathi versus maratha. Both DF and NG are marathis and brahmans (and both from nagpur).
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Vikas »

KL Dubey wrote:
Karthik S wrote:I think DF being a brahmin will be at a big disadvantage now. BJP needs to find a marathi face. BTW, can't gadkari replace DF as CM face?
Total confusion...marathi versus maratha. Both DF and NG are marathis and brahmans (and both from nagpur).
Is there any proof in claiming that Maha has a problem with DF but would readily accept Maratha face (whatever that means). With DF as face of the alliance, NDA secured easy victory and despite having Maratha face, NCP could not. What does that say. Why this claim then that BJP needs Maratha face in MH ? Last time with Maratha face, both SS+BJP lost and were out of power for 10 years.
This is a typical congoon mindset which was based upon caste combinations and local communities.
I think India mostly has moved away from these caste combinations and we tend to ignore grievance of ordinary people who vote against by filing it under Jat-leader (HR), Maratha leader (MH), Vokkalinga leader (KA), Kashmiri sunni Muslim (J&K) or Jat Sikh (PB).

Noob Question: Who is a Marathi and who is a Maratha and how the 2 are different ?
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