2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 19 Dec 2019 23:04

This is nothing but frustration of the Cong-Left showing up. The CAA is just an excuse as in reality it doesn't affect Indian citizens. The Left now is practically electorally non-existent outside Kerala and some campuses like JNU. The more violent Naxalites have a shrinking base. The Congress area of influence is continuing to diminish with MH going out of hand and TG heading towards the same. Just some minority dominated states and a few big states in NI plus KT left. The legislative power to set the agenda is gone. The Presidential powers are gone. The ability to influence or coerce the judiciary is gone. The ability to fundamentally alter India and the house of cards set-up over 50-60 years is gone. It seems to them that all this is crumbling around them. The barely concealed hatred of Hindus under the rubric of secularism is peeking out now and then in various form.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 19 Dec 2019 23:12

https://twitter.com/timesofindia/status ... 6644474880

Times of India @timesofindia

BJP is buying skull caps for its cadres who are wearing them while vandalising properties to malign a particular community: PTI quotes @MamataOfficial at Kolkata rally

Mumtaz Banoo-jee needs to do better. Theek hai, at least she validate Modi on the "dress" part by admitting people with "skull caps" are behind rampant vandalism in Bengal.

Picklu · Post by **Picklu** » 19 Dec 2019 23:25

The number of state govt outside BJP hand is a concern since law and order is a state subject and any central initiative can be thwarted/sabotaged via violence or threat of violence.

RAJ, MP, C'Garh, MH, Bihar, Odisha, TN, KL, AP and Telengana, Delhi, WB, Assam and NE (after CAA) combined is not a small segment, in fact a large number of Indians are at the mercy of the BIF.

If my reading is right, Jharkhand is soon to join this gang.

Plus Goa/Haryana are critically dependent on others and can switch at any point.

This gaining of upper hand via most of the state govts is the reason for the emboldened protest on NRC and CAA, not some mythical fear of loosing privilege.

The path to NRC won't be easy.

mmasand · Post by **mmasand** » 19 Dec 2019 23:27

I still can't see why GOI is rather silent on correcting misconceptions, no newspaper ads, not once has the Home Secy come out with a strong rebuttal. Is this is arrogance or are they waiting for something sinister? It only takes a small spark to start a riot, and hell will break lose. Also fair to assume IB and other agencies are 'listening', and 'reading' any chatter to file some rather serious charges in the not too distant future once the drama is over.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 19 Dec 2019 23:30

GoI did issue clarification on twitter and created a faq. It also advertised in papers per twitter.

Such efforts are not being publicized because media is not giving it space except for what it is paid for by GOI.

Kanwal, who usually keeps to the center started changing tune a few weeks back and I had noted it here. The topic was Maharashtra government formation then.

Seems the channels have taken a conscious decision to take the other side just as the celebrities have. Perhaps it is a choice of heart or of the purse but that is not known.

banrjeer · Post by **banrjeer** » 19 Dec 2019 23:32

KL Dubey wrote:
g.sarkar wrote:Banrjeerji, I agree. Take for example OCI. This is not a second citizenship, which India does not allow for anyone. It is only an unlimited visa for Indian origin people.
OCI is much more than an unlimited visa. It gives the holder almost all the same rights as citizens. It is more like a US green card, plus the added convenience that the holder does not have to satisfy any yearly residency requirements. It is a very significant document to grant to a foreign national, and I hope that GOI evaluates each case carefully. I agree 110% that it shouldn't be given to trash like Atish Taseer. Additionally, I think GOI should conduct checks that look at the individual's history and their public opinions about India before granting OCI (or even temporary visas).

In 2001 USCIS enacted an amnesty bill/measure which was formulated to give relief and clear the backlog of quasi legal/undocumented immigrants in the US. This pushed back legal green card applicants by many years.We did not start throwing stones and burning buses.

The govt should not have called it citizenship amendment just amnesty. wording matters , especially in India where things will be taken out of context. Why expose yourself.

Jay · Post by **Jay** » 19 Dec 2019 23:34

mmasand wrote:I still can't see why GOI is rather silent on correcting misconceptions, no newspaper ads, not once has the Home Secy come out with a strong rebuttal.

There is no point in the Govt. coming out and clarifying points now. What is done is done and everyone has picked sides and anything the Govt. says will neither calm the protesters not will it make a political impact for them. Let it play out and get a handle on the protests/situation using the courts and police and then start addressing shortcomings. Just wait and watch and back the law & order personnel at this moment.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 19 Dec 2019 23:43

I don't know. The Jihadis/EJs/Commies and worldwide globalists are too strong for MAD to take on. I don't think our people can fight back and stay on message.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 19 Dec 2019 23:45

In reality given India's size these are small protests primarily happening in M dominated areas and that too known areas of illegals and others being organized protests by 4 political parties. Overwhelming majority of Indians are just watching. The idea is to vent some anger and if possible incite the law enforcement agencies to kill a few people so that things can be further politicized and internationalized. Best thing to do is take things calmly. No revolution is happening except in their minds.

mmasand · Post by **mmasand** » 19 Dec 2019 23:49

vijayk wrote:I don't know. The Jihadis/EJs/Commies and worldwide globalists are too strong for MAD to take on. I don't think our people can fight back and stay on message.

That's a rather weak argument, what happens worldwide, particularly in the media does not govern foreign relations, besides it's about perception within your country that wins you polls. The left has drifted too far for its own good, they have seen repeatedly in recent elections in several countries that they are no longer in touch with the people.

What concerns me is the rather delicate balance we have in places like Delhi, an incident related to a parking distance quickly saw it escalate into a communal one, and yet again Delhi police was caught with its pants down, Police reform is a distant dream.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 19 Dec 2019 23:50

Modi has seen many such crisis in the past 5 years or rather going back to 2002. All resulted in giving a bigger and bigger mandate. ONLY a fool of a opposition party will allows the whole country to polarize. That will install BJP in nearly every state from now on till 2024. Over-reach Possible but unlikely.

They may want to keep it burning on slow burn for a while but that's about it. Just as stone-pelting was "directed" so is this protest and will die when the backers backoff.

Vadivel · Post by **Vadivel** » 19 Dec 2019 23:58

banrjeer wrote:
KL Dubey wrote:
OCI is much more than an unlimited visa. It gives the holder almost all the same rights as citizens. It is more like a US green card, plus the added convenience that the holder does not have to satisfy any yearly residency requirements. It is a very significant document to grant to a foreign national, and I hope that GOI evaluates each case carefully. I agree 110% that it shouldn't be given to trash like Atish Taseer. Additionally, I think GOI should conduct checks that look at the individual's history and their public opinions about India before granting OCI (or even temporary visas).
In 2001 USCIS enacted an amnesty bill/measure which was formulated to give relief and clear the backlog of quasi legal/undocumented immigrants in the US. This pushed back legal green card applicants by many years.We did not start throwing stones and burning buses.

The govt should not have called it citizenship amendment just amnesty. wording matters , especially in India where things will be taken out of context. Why expose yourself.

I second this, when read it in brief, I was wondering why it’s called “citizen amendment”, it’s just giving citizenship to prosecuted minority’s, nothing to do with existing citizens.

Calling it amnesty would have not even been noticed by media’s.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 20 Dec 2019 00:13

The "nationwide protests" are the equivalent of the fa*t in the thunderstorm. ONE bus-burning and stone-pelting outside ONE small dump, promptly slapped down by polis with only canes and tear gas.

A couple of stone-peltings in other places. One train had some stones thrown at it. Some more serious but routine Mopla riots in terrorist-occupied Bengal (TOB).
*************
In the aftermath of BM trash-demolition in Dec. 92 I think some 2000 ppl died, besides the thousands of Kar Sevaks killed in the runup to the demolition. Todin's Bissful are too lazy to stir themselves.

Just compare present level of street violence ALL OVER India to just one night's festivities in Peaceful, Civilized Paris..

banrjeer · Post by **banrjeer** » 20 Dec 2019 00:19

pankajs wrote:

Modi has seen many such crisis in the past 5 years or rather going back to 2002. All resulted in giving a bigger and bigger mandate. ONLY a fool of a opposition party will allows the whole country to polarize. That will install BJP in nearly every state from now on till 2024. Over-reach Possible but unlikely.

They may want to keep it burning on slow burn for a while but that's about it. Just as stone-pelting was "directed" so is this protest and will die when the backers backoff.

Theres will be a limit to that mandate, they have to be careful with todays setup.

A suggestion is to enact a voluntary biometric and land digitization enrollment drives, bank accounts that track income etc. Especially for new borns. Participants should get tax benefits and higher credit ratings, since they are helping streamline the system and lower financial risk.

This will provide the handles and tools for NRC which can only be a gradual process and is a long way off

Riots are cyclical. Hopefully these demonstrations are beneficial since it deflates tensions. Who knows.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 20 Dec 2019 00:30

^^ NCR will come in about 1 year after CAA as per Hemant B Sarma. Expect some flexibility but we should see the an act for NRC implementation by end of 2020 or 2021.

Shah has already committed publicly to getting NRC done by 2024. Lets suppose it can't be the final date with verification and weeding but still enrollment could be wrapped up in 2-3 years pending verification and weeding and a provisional NRC card issued to all.

That is the timeline as of now for CAA + NRC Enrollment direct from the party in power. Very legit.

---------
The protest it not about CAA, which is already a law, but to prevent NRC Act from being enacted. Even if BJP does not back-off, it is to scare the other parties whose support will be needed to pass it in RS.

NRC, by itself, cannot be opposed because it will look anti-national so they have chosen to go with this and scare the hell out of the rest of the parties.

Gerard · Post by **Gerard** » 20 Dec 2019 00:35

Subramanian Swamy
@Swamy39
We can give Musharraf fast track citizenship since he is from Daryaganj and suffering persecution. All self—acknowledged descendants of Hindus are qualified in a new CAA to come

22.9K
12:49 AM - Dec 19, 2019

Skanda · Post by **Skanda** » 20 Dec 2019 00:43

UlanBatori wrote:The "nationwide protests" are the equivalent of the fa*t in the thunderstorm. ONE bus-burning and stone-pelting outside ONE small dump, promptly slapped down by polis with only canes and tear gas.

Some hope given that the judiciary is also showing some spine. I think NM-AS strategy is "This too shall pass". It doesn't have any broad support and in a few days will lose momentum. Given that the Police are actually taking hits and not using force is also an indication that they are convinced that this will all blow away.

Just need to stay away from TV and the debates which are predicting apocalypse for a few more days.

madhu · Post by **madhu** » 20 Dec 2019 00:53

One thing i dont understand is, why modi and shah taking so much risk to save only 35000 people?
It do not make sense to me. Am i missing something?

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 20 Dec 2019 00:59

Per Shah in RS, there are crore+ "illegal" but "eligible" people in India.

https://twitter.com/TOIIndiaNews/status ... 1132452864

TOI India @TOIIndiaNews

Muslims of India need not fear, CAA doesn't threaten their citizenship: Ajmer Dargah spiritual head

darshan · Post by **darshan** » 20 Dec 2019 02:16

Karthik S wrote:
darshan wrote:If police comes under state govt and MAD can't control them, which other forces that they can deploy that the state govt can't deny deployment of?
These mob attacks happened in Gj as well.

I think that you probably interpreted my comments as BJP vs non BJP. My question was more general in nature but specific to MAD. I believe that in many of my posts I have mentioned about not counting on local BJP to save Hindus. The Hindus can't be protected by the local police for one reason or another. Even they know that so their normal approach has been in GJ to take out possibility of counter attack by Hindus when things go out of hand. However, the first round will always claim tons of Hindu lives as many simply refuse to acknowledge the reality and haven't seen good old riot days and 24/7 watches to make sure that there's no breach. Due to the dispersement of the population, preventing any breach concept has no usefulness. Not that many keep arms or even know how to use them. Neither they are used to seeing blood and killing like on Eid.

Nikhil T · Post by **Nikhil T** » 20 Dec 2019 02:35

Sachin wrote:
Nikhil T wrote:Think it’d be fair to expect some of the non-Modi Hindu voters to be against this act. Eg my brother in law (a Fauji kid) didn’t vote for Modi and feels strongly against it.

madhu wrote:In my family my cousin stopped talking to me as I am stringent supported of CAA. She thinks Modi ( to which she voted) has favored religion bases rather than secular basis.
You are absolutely right. This issue too has split even one's own immediate circle (friends, relatives) into two groups. I had shared a Facebook post explaining the CAA - and some other wise silent people came very sharply. None of them were Muslims. All Hindus - and would fit in the bucket of Convent educated, good English speaking, well read people. They are certainly not the Aam Admis/Aurats. Perhaps it just proves that the more Modern & English educated you are in India, chances of you joining the liberal commie crowd is very high. It is even higher if education has been in the usual Arts & Science colleges.

What I could understand is that;
1. There is a sizeable group of Hindus in India who are either ignorant or callous about how Hindus get treated in our friendly Islamic countries. These folks are generally middle or upper middle class who have got the best education and grown up in neighbourhoods which generally do not see any violence.
2. These people also feel that refugees of all kinds should be allowed to enter India and stay put here. Some even suggested that transgenders and homos from countries like Pakistan should be allowed into India, irrespective of religion etc.
3. A common thread among all (i.e transgender friendly, homo friendly, and all-religion friendly) are there hatred towards Modi - in person, and BJP - as a party. The hatred they show is mind boggling. The hatred I guess has also increased because irrespective of what these Yuppies felt; Modi & BJP came back to power with even more majority. Which also gives me a feeling many of the Modi haters do not have the brains to figure out from where he gets his votes. Because these elites are so farther away from the common world.

Sachin sir, I think it'd be a mistake to not recognize that there are many Modi voters against CAB and NRC. This is but natural for any piece of legislation. There were several traders who were opposed to the GST - they were and are staunch Modi supporters. Similarly, many people have been raising voices against HPCL disinvestment to ONGC and the misuse of LIC to bail out Govt. Or the measures to give tax breaks to corporates instead of stimulating public investment and consumption. Many of these same people - including me - would be supportive of Uniform Civil Code, if the BJP were to bring it as a legislation.
I think we have to recognize it is TOTALLY fine for a Modi voter to be anti-CAA or anti-NRC or anti-anything else. It doesn't mean "they don't have the brains" or they are "elite" or worse, that they are anti-Hindu. It simply means they are not convinced with that legislation.

That said, I think there is wide acceptance amongst all Modi voters - regardless of how they feel about CAA/NRC - that the violent protests have gone out of hand and must be contained. There's simply no excuse to destroy public property.

Nikhil T · Post by **Nikhil T** » 20 Dec 2019 02:49

prasan wrote:Leaving out Muslims is not ‘glaringly discriminatory’: A Response to the open letter published in the web portal, The Leaflet to Harish Salve, Sr. Advocate

. Ahmadiyas are a sect in Islam, not a religion. Further, this distinction is not to bypass humanitarian principles because in fact they believe in Islam and are practitioners of Islam and the Quran. In the broadest common denominator of world religions, the recognised world religions are broadly considered as Islam, Christianity, Hinduism, Buddhism, Jainism, Zoroastrianism, Sikhism, Judaism. Islam has multiple sects within it in various proportions across nations viz Sunni, Shia, Ahmadiyas, Baathis, Bohra, etc. They believe in different forms, expressions, and colours of Quran which does not mean they become external to the religion. Further, a width and scope of classification is determined at the altar of the sovereign, and on the basis of those principles it ought to have the right to determine contours of citizenship to foreigners, as long as the classifications meet the test of Article14. Broadening the principles are also the prerogative of the state, and there is no constitutional basis to say that the state ought to be forced to expand its principle of classification even if it meets the tests of 14. The state can obviously do that later in its own prerogative. In practice, the inner fault lines in Pakistan’s Islamic community can lead to a domino effect wherein an extension to Ahmadiyas shall mean an extension to Shias and Balochs, who constitute a considerable population of the country, the burden of which cannot be forced upon the Indian state

My own view is that BJP erred in not including Ahmadiyas in CAA. The explanation, as above, is that Ahmadiyas is not a religion. However, the whole point is that Pakistani Muslims *do consider* Ahmadiyas to be non-Muslims and this is why they are persecuted. That Ahmadiyas are non-Muslims is enshrined in their constitution. So, the bar for including any group of people in CAA - whether they are being persecuted for their religious beliefs - does qualify Ahmadiyas because that's exactly what's happening to them. This way BJP would have insulated itself from the narrative of "CAA lets in only non-Muslims" and at a small cost, since there aren't many Ahmadiyas in India anyway.

vinod · Post by **vinod** » 20 Dec 2019 02:57

Including Ahmadiyas will fail the article 14 classification test and will be deemed unconstitutional.

Atmavik · Post by **Atmavik** » 20 Dec 2019 03:21

vinod wrote:Including Ahmadiyas will fail the article 14 classification test and will be deemed unconstitutional.

would have also forced Owasi type sikulars to say that Ahmadiyas are not muslims again(he has said this before). does article 14 only apply to indian citizens ? or anyone present in india?

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 20 Dec 2019 03:32

Nikhil T wrote:There's simply no excuse to destroy public property.

+400
IMHO Nikhilji, that simple statement is what is new in India: people actually SAYING that destroying public property is senseless and only harms the nation.

Once this becomes "common sense", the netas who thrive on bus-burning can be driven out. There is no excuse for rioting just to "release anger" as the excuse has been for 70+ years. They can shake their mijjiles in private for that.

Progress. One step at a time. Thanks!

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 20 Dec 2019 03:45

Sachin wrote:
You are absolutely right. This issue too has split even one's own immediate circle (friends, relatives) into two groups. I had shared a Facebook post explaining the CAA - and some other wise silent people came very sharply. None of them were Muslims. All Hindus - and would fit in the bucket of Convent educated, good English speaking, well read people. They are certainly not the Aam Admis/Aurats. Perhaps it just proves that the more Modern & English educated you are in India, chances of you joining the liberal commie crowd is very high. It is even higher if education has been in the usual Arts & Science colleges.

What I could understand is that;
1. There is a sizeable group of Hindus in India who are either ignorant or callous about how Hindus get treated in our friendly Islamic countries. These folks are generally middle or upper middle class who have got the best education and grown up in neighbourhoods which generally do not see any violence.
2. These people also feel that refugees of all kinds should be allowed to enter India and stay put here. Some even suggested that transgenders and homos from countries like Pakistan should be allowed into India, irrespective of religion etc.
3. A common thread among all (i.e transgender friendly, homo friendly, and all-religion friendly) are there hatred towards Modi - in person, and BJP - as a party. The hatred they show is mind boggling. The hatred I guess has also increased because irrespective of what these Yuppies felt; Modi & BJP came back to power with even more majority. Which also gives me a feeling many of the Modi haters do not have the brains to figure out from where he gets his votes. Because these elites are so farther away from the common world.

Agree with the bold completely. There are far too many entitled and selfish jokers we have carried along as a society who only think of themselves. They have become completely inured to the suffering of fellow Hindus, and Sikhs, and others and many have even gone to the extent of disowning their own heritage.
The Left created many of these arrogant, entitled sorts via brainwashing, but they firmly believe they are superior, mindset wise to everyone else. No easy way out but to completely and totally take over educational institutions that future generations don't turn out to be such selfish parasites.

Modi made an incredibly bad move by taking out Smriti Irani and putting that clown Javdekar in charge. We lost 5 years.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 20 Dec 2019 03:46

We need to call the army out. They are killing cops.

mmasand · Post by **mmasand** » 20 Dec 2019 03:52

vijayk wrote:We need to call the army out. They are killing cops.

Any source? Also you don't call out the army if one cop is killed. You bring in the RAF who have demonstrated their expertise in quelling violence, ample quantities of stun grenades and water cannons + dye should send them scurrying back to their hostels.

OmkarC · Post by **OmkarC** » 20 Dec 2019 03:54

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J4D4oJg0oTs

Yogi's approach to handle these goons... at least BJP states need to emulate.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 20 Dec 2019 03:54

One cop killed is one too many. You are showing the mob they are supreme and are ok with their action. A no holds barred crackdown should commence.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 20 Dec 2019 03:56

I saw in videos on Twitter. In Gujarat, a cop fell down. They were lynching him. In UP, they were beating with rocks 4 or 5 cops. Another place, they surrounded the jeep. Don't know where it was.

vinod · Post by **vinod** » 20 Dec 2019 04:00

Atmavik wrote:
vinod wrote:Including Ahmadiyas will fail the article 14 classification test and will be deemed unconstitutional.
would have also forced Owasi type sikulars to say that Ahmadiyas are not muslims again(he has said this before). does article 14 only apply to indian citizens ? or anyone present in india?

article 14 applies to all people on the territory of india including foreigners.

vinod · Post by **vinod** » 20 Dec 2019 04:03

vijayk wrote:We need to call the army out. They are killing cops.

No need of army yet. Armed police would be enough.

Modi\Shah, as leaders of the nation, would have to come out and make an appeal to stop this violence. Not that I have belief that it will make a difference, but when tougher actions are taken, they can say, they tried to convince.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 20 Dec 2019 04:07

Secularism is a two way street. If one bunch of groups show it has nothing but contempt for the law of the land, it needs to be taught a lesson it remembers. These cops are to defend us, if these jokers do this to the cops, how can they defend us?

sivab · Post by **sivab** » 20 Dec 2019 04:09

pankajs wrote:^^ Expect some flexibility but we should see the an act for NRC implementation by end of 2020 or 2021.

No new law is required (see below). Section 14A (added in 2004, wef 3-12-2004) of citizenship act 1955, already provides for NRC throughout india. The NRC for Assam is under 6A (added in 1985, wef 7-12-1985). The procedure for NRC under these two sections is different. For Assam (6A) responsibility for getting in NRC is with Applicant, for rest of India (14A) the responsibility is with enumerator/govt. Only cabinet approval and rules need to be published. Amit Shah said as much (see below) in his two recent interviews and quoted relevant sections of law.

Read the law here.
https://indiacode.nic.in/bitstream/1234 ... t_1955.pdf

Amit shah discussing the sequencing of CAB and NRC in Kolkotta on April 23.

Amit shah saying no new law needed, mentions 14A.

In short, congress is to be blamed for NRC

Gerard · Post by **Gerard** » 20 Dec 2019 04:11

vinod wrote:Including Ahmadiyas will fail the article 14 classification test and will be deemed unconstitutional.

How so? Would not including such Muslim sects as Ahmadiya and Ismaeli prevent the classification being deemed impermissible?

Also, should Afghanistan have been included? Would not limiting the countries to 1947 pre-partition British India have been better for classication purposes (non-manifest arbitrariness)?

VKumar · Post by **VKumar** » 20 Dec 2019 04:15

Wait for today's Friday class.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 20 Dec 2019 04:15

OmkarC wrote:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J4D4oJg0oTs
Yogi's approach to handle these goons... at least BJP states need to emulate.

Need to list this out for all to see:

Uttar Pradesh CM Yogi Adityanath on CAA protests: I have called a meeting over this. You cant indulge in violence in name of protest. We will take strict action against such elements. Will seize property of those found guilty and compensate damage to public property.

And go after the **ORGANIZATIONS** and ***THEIR LEADERS**** for inciting the violence. This is the right way to put them out of business. They arrive in a Mercedes 750 in style ====> polis arrive with tow truck and say "thanks! that leaves only Rs. 220 crores. Take off the RayBans. The iPhone. The Gold Chain. The Rolex Oyster. The Michael Kors purse. Repeat after us:' Bharat Mata ki Jai!' "

Sab se Cash, Sabka Vikas!

vinod · Post by **vinod** » 20 Dec 2019 04:20

VKumar wrote:Wait for today's Friday class.

We will have to wait and watch Friday afternoon prayers.
If they come out screaming Allahuakbar, we can expect serious riots on our hand.
If mullahs have calmed them down seeing that modi will gain more advantage only, then we can expect the protests to die out by Monday.

vinod · Post by **vinod** » 20 Dec 2019 04:24

Gerard wrote:
vinod wrote:Including Ahmadiyas will fail the article 14 classification test and will be deemed unconstitutional.
How so? Would not including such Muslim sects as Ahmadiya and Ismaeli prevent the classification being deemed impermissible?

Also, should Afghanistan have been included? Would not limiting the countries to 1947 pre-partition British India have been better for classication purposes (non-manifest arbitrariness)?

Its only people classification. ie, you are giving positive discrimination to persecuted minorities of those countries. Since it is a muslim nation various sects within that religion are not recognized as persecuted minority religion.

Countries choice is the govts scope of law. Not relevant to article 14.