2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

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KL Dubey
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by KL Dubey »

Folks, there is a much different strategy playing out.

With a 100 million strong membership, deep pockets, rock-solid leadership in New Delhi, robust cadre-based structure, and the RSS providing generation after generation of nationalist leaders and workers, the BJP has started going it alone not only in national but also in state elections.

Almost each and every one of these elections (national and state) are throwing up record vote shares for the BJP.

Eventually, these states will all turn solidly saffron. It requires a little more long-term work. Others like MH, MP, RJ, CG will come back before/in their next state elections.

There may be a few bumps in the road, but like I said before the BJP leadership under Shah is playing a long-range strategy.

The word is that BJP has decided that it wants to minimize (or eliminate) the necessity of "allies". The recent experiences in MH with the Dork Duo have hardened this resolve. Almost invariably these "allies" turn out to be family-interest (or even individual-interest like JDU) outfits which will fold up as soon as their nepotistic/dynastic leaders quit. Such parties are by their nature self-serving and not capable of nation-serving. BJP has decided it needs to "break the habit" and is strong enough to start working on that. In the next 5-10 years one will see these "allies" (both on NDA and UPA side) leaving the alliance in a huff and later folding up because the BJP is eating their vote share. The INC (which is the mother of all dynastic parties) will also likely either fold up or break up into various factions.

The state in which Modi and Shah are currently making the maximum push to get the BJP in pole position, is obviously WB.

Meanwhile, it is the national stage where dramatic developments are occurring - and will continue to occur - one after the other. In this arena, the BJP/NDA now has the numbers in both houses of Sansad and they will be bolstered further this upcoming year.

Ignore the noise, focus on the signals.
Last edited by KL Dubey on 24 Dec 2019 10:35, edited 1 time in total.
Sachin
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Sachin »

banrjeer wrote:Hindutva alone will never be enough. It was an OK to get the foot in the door and can only go so far, but you cannot reuse the same trick all the time.
Also looks like the average Indian voter is also now able to clearly differentiate between a national issue and state specific issue. During state elections, state specific issues gets the weightage (right fully so).
pankajs wrote:So no NRC for now only Census and NPR.
IMHO, this would be the right approach. Census and NPR (National Population Register?) gives the headcount of the people. All GoI should do is to incentivise (how?) the maximum number of people to turn up and give the head count. From the "Population Register" comes the pain staking job of preparing the "Citizen's register". My gut feeling is that this can be a complete off-line excercise utilising India's IT expertise. The citizens are only going to be a sub-set of the population any ways. And this filtering can be done in such a way that it is decentralised and one state's data validation happens in another state. The "seculars" may claim victory that NRC is put on hold, but that is fine if we get the complete data set of Indian population by hook or crook.
IndraD wrote:why is 370, RJB not getting votes for BJP?
These are all pan-India feel good factors which does not have an impact on state elections. No body in Jharkhand will vote in a useless state government (even from BJP) for teaching the Kashmiri Jehadis a lesson. A gap I see in BJP's current strategy is that they don't have state specific plans for winning state elections. Looks like it is a bit decentralised with the state level BJP leadership asked to come up with a plan and execute it.
khan wrote:This communal nonsense they have been doing for the last couple of months is complete stupidity. I hope for India’s sake that there is a course correction ASAP.
The communal non-sense was NOT triggered by the BJP, but by the "secular" parties who now have no say in the democratically elected Parliament. The minority communities had a python like hold on the majority community through vote bank politics and thus the power they had in the Parliament. In last two governments that has changed. No for the minority communities goonda giri is their only option for blackmail. It is their attitude that either through vote bank politics or goonda giri they will continue to black mail the nation which should change.
Karthik S
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Karthik S »

KL Dubey wrote:Folks, there is a much different strategy playing out.

With a 100 million strong membership, deep pockets, rock-solid leadership in New Delhi, robust cadre-based structure, and the RSS providing generation after generation of nationalist leaders and workers, the BJP has started going it alone not only in national but also in state elections.

Almost each and every one of these elections (national and state) are throwing up record vote shares for the BJP.

Eventually, these states will all turn solidly saffron. It requires a little more long-term work. Others like MH, MP, RJ, CG will come back before their next state elections.

There may be a few bumps in the road, but like I said before the BJP leadership under Shah is playing a long-range strategy.

The word is that BJP has decided that it wants to minimize (or eliminate) the necessity of "allies". The recent experiences in MH with the Dork Duo have hardened this resolve. Almost invariably these "allies" turn out to be family-interest (or even individual-interest like JDU) outfits which will fold up as soon as their nepotistic/dynastic leaders quit. Such parties are by their nature self-serving and not capable of nation-serving. BJP has decided it needs to "break the habit" and is strong enough to start working on that. In the next 5-10 years one will see these "allies" (both on NDA and UPA side) leaving the alliance in a huff and later folding up because the BJP is eating their vote share. The INC (which is the mother of all dynastic parties) will also likely either fold up or break up into various factions.

The state in which Modi and Shah are currently making the maximum push to get the BJP in pole position, is obviously WB.

Meanwhile, it is the national stage where dramatic developments are occurring - and will continue to occur - one after the other. In this arena, the BJP/NDA now has the numbers in both houses of Sansad and they will be bolstered further this upcoming year.

Ignore the noise, focus on the signals.
Dubey sir, that's all fine, but when you have unfavorable parties ruling the states, the development work suffers, l&o suffers. Look at MH for instance, lakhs of crores investment, now am sure the investors will be dhoti shivering. As far as India is concerned both development and L&O is very important, and I include EJ activities etc in L&O as sooner or later, upon reaching critical mass, they indulge in such activities.
KL Dubey
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by KL Dubey »

Karthik S wrote:Dubey sir, that's all fine, but when you have unfavorable parties ruling the states, the development work suffers, l&o suffers. Look at MH for instance, lakhs of crores investment, now am sure the investors will be dhoti shivering. As far as India is concerned both development and L&O is very important, and I include EJ activities etc in L&O as sooner or later, upon reaching critical mass, they indulge in such activities.
Obviously, the electorate is the other side of the coin. If people vote for a fragmented mandate, they will get what they voted for.

At the same time, the constant headache of negotiating election alliances and wheeling-dealing with twerps like Uddhav, Nitish, etc inevitably takes a toll on the party workers and upcoming leaders.

The party's strategy of developing the party infrastructure in every state and canvassing/informing/educating voters is the right one, and will lead to increase in vote share which ultimately will overwhelm the opposition. This is a silent process which only shows up in the vote shares. When Amit Shah said in 2018 that he is not bothered about which other guys are forming alliances since all he has to do is to get more than 50% vote share, people laughed at him. Yet, that is what India is inexorably moving towards.

Most importantly, the constant stream of benefits/public works/socioeconomic progress from the central gorement provides the catalyst for all this. If Modi Sarkar is not working, this entire project will come to a grinding halt and collapse.

So, a simple thing to do is to support Modi Sarkar with full strength and without any reservation whatsoever, and things will turn out well everywhere in Bharatvarsh. The rest is all good fodder for phaltu discussions/entertainment.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Santosh »

IndraD wrote:From known sources in JH
Raghubar Das was hugely unpopular . Known for his gaffe. Once he said (and backtracked ) JH will be first adivasi mukt pradesh,
Tribal anger against BJP for diluting land acquisition which was exclusive right of tribal.
Churches, Naxal joining hands throwing weight behind alliance.
Anti conversion bill galvanised converted tribals, STs (money bags denied)
BJP alone without partners. While on the other side opposition stitching alliance, cobbling votes together.
Saryu Rai & other Vibhishan working against BJP.
Inducting epitome of corruption and murderers in JH BJP played against optics.
While BJP is supposed to play by rule boook other side is OK to do Shiv Sena.
But R Das is the biggest factor in getting BJP drowned.
Did Amit Shah wanted Raghubar Das to get a reality check ? If yes then price is huge.
You hit it on the head IndraD. Raghubar Das, a non-tribal alienated tribals and ignored them completely. This is a state that has majority tribal population. No wonder Arjun Munda was looking eyeing for his chance. Replacing Raghubar Das with Arjun Munda may have been a better option half way into the term. Modi SHah must have definitely seen this but probably ignored it, not sure what was their compulsion. Raghubar Das pretty much sank the BJP. If a sitting CM cannot save his seat and loses by 15K votes that says plenty about his abject failure. Also BJP seems to be firm on not relenting to black mail by SS type partners.
Deans
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Deans »

As a BJP supporter (and number cruncher on the economy and elections) what I am most concerned about is that in EVERY state assembly election since 2014, the BJP's vote share has been lower than the previous Lok Sabha election. In Maharashtra, Haryana and now Jharkhand, the vote share was lower by 10%, 22% and 17% respectively. (After adjusting for seat sharing).

In 2014, the vote share differences (LS - State assembly) for the BJP in Maharashtra, Haryana & Jharkhand was 4%, 2% and 10% because there was anti-incumbency against the then (non BJP) govt. At the national level, Modiji (and no alternative to him) gives the BJP a jump of about 4% in vote share. There is a vote share loss at the state level, because the CM candidate does not give a boost. Anti-incumbency has cost BJP between 6 and 18% of votes in each state. That fall in vote share is IMO exacerbated by poor economic growth. That is the single biggest problem the BJP has to address. A CM candidate who is not from the dominant caste (as has been Modiji's policy since 2014) will be acceptable, only if he can bring vikas, which so far has not happened (in the mind of some voters who voted BJP in the Lok Sabha elections). I have not seen empirical evidence that a BJP ruled state had a higher GDP growth than an opposition one.

If we have 5% GDP growth, that's a per capita income increase of 3.5% p.a (1.5% being popl growth). The problem is that for the bottom 90% of the population who have just 1/3rd of income (the top 1% have 1/3rd and the next 9% have another 1/3rd), inflation is 1% higher and income growth 2% lower than for the top 1%, giving a income growth (net of inflation) of just 0.5% At that level of income growth, a govt will be voted out. Even when India was accustomed to the Hindu rate of growth, we had similar declines in vote shares. In this case, expectations from Modiji are much higher. The only achievement on GDP growth (which has to be built on) is that schemes like Ujala, DBT etc are reducing the disparity in economic growth.
Deans
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Deans »

KL Dubey wrote:
Obviously, the electorate is the other side of the coin. If people vote for a fragmented mandate, they will get what they voted for.

At the same time, the constant headache of negotiating election alliances and wheeling-dealing with twerps like Uddhav, Nitish, etc inevitably takes a toll on the party workers and upcoming leaders.

The party's strategy of developing the party infrastructure in every state and canvassing/informing/educating voters is the right one, and will lead to increase in vote share which ultimately will overwhelm the opposition. This is a silent process which only shows up in the vote shares. When Amit Shah said in 2018 that he is not bothered about which other guys are forming alliances since all he has to do is to get more than 50% vote share, people laughed at him. Yet, that is what India is inexorably moving towards.

Most importantly, the constant stream of benefits/public works/socioeconomic progress from the central gorement provides the catalyst for all this. If Modi Sarkar is not working, this entire project will come to a grinding halt and collapse.

So, a simple thing to do is to support Modi Sarkar with full strength and without any reservation whatsoever, and things will turn out well everywhere in Bharatvarsh. The rest is all good fodder for phaltu discussions/entertainment.
Amitbhai's strategy of 50% is valid for LS elections, but not at State level (explained in my previous post). In Maharashtra, the BJP vote share (adjusted for seats contested) was 10% lower than in LS 2019. That was the effect of Anti-incumbency - although the opposition was perceived to be `down and out' and because there was no Modiji equivalent as the CM candidate. Under those circumstances, I don't see why the BJP refused a tactical adjustment with their ally and gone in for a 50:50 CM and a near equal share of ministerial berths, to retain control of India's 2nd largest state for LS seats.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by UlanBatori »

Go for abolishing the 50% quotas and other nonsense while the LS and RS votes are there. At least those will set the nation on an upward path like the Pokhran-2, Babri-garbage and other things eventually did. Demo, GST, 370 trashing and now relief for refugees are both excellent, but the real gold is in the quota abolition.
madhu
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by madhu »

UlanBatori wrote:Go for abolishing the 50% quotas and other nonsense while the LS and RS votes are there.
Go for abolishing the 50% quotas and other nonsense while the LS and RS votes are there.[/quote]
I don’t think as a society we are mature enough to take it up yet. I know it is hurting a lot and this is actually blatant violation of article 14 . just for CAA2019 we saw how the issue has been hijacked and consolidation of Muslim vote is taking place when this is not affecting us at all. Do you think any party would survive going after quota?
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Vikas »

MAD haven't even issued NOTAM yet while opposition to CAA is almost on the verge of finishing the Laxmi bombs. There are still 4.5 years to go.
Meanwhile elections will be won and lost irrespective of CM choice or quality of governance unless you are Communist Party of China (CPC). Those who have tasted power in BJP Raj will strive to get BJP back just like the same cabal tries to get Cong/SP/DMK/RJD etc. back. Yin and yang is inherent in nature.
Scary thing for violence prone community is that CAA is not going back to cold storage nor NRC will be shelved permanently. They should be watching over their shoulders before next set of entitlement is taken away form them.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by pankajs »

Why liberals are aghast at #CAA? {Good to get a basic understanding of what patriotic/nationalist are up against. Plus some embedded videos}

https://twitter.com/KausikGy/status/120 ... ote]Kausik Gangopadhyay @KausikGy

Why liberals are aghast at #CAA? Why are they so upset about helping Hindu refugees from Bangladesh/ Pakistan when they supported Rohingya refugees of Myanmar. I will describe their worldview, termed “Cultural Marxism”, in this #thread. [/quote]
Marxism is about class struggle and at the end the proletariat (poor) will take over the administration to found a “just” state. The classes are defined by nothing but wealth/property.

A good introduction by @hesivh https://youtube.com/watch?v=embEexjFha8
A good-natured businessman is necessarily bad while a bad-natured worker is necessarily good because the businessman belongs to the wrong class!

However, this is a theory whose empirical verification is possible.
After Alexandre Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn’s “One Day in the Life of Ivan Denisovich” and “The Gulag Archipelago”, people in Europe saw the USSR (the state of the proletariat) no “just ” state. That much cruelty from the state was repulsive.
The European leftist intellectuals were facing a problem of survival regarding their message. This is the moment, Jacques Derrida and others jumped on to the Cultural Marxist wagon.

@Saumya_stoic explains here the process https://youtube.com/watch?v=3xVg5uGAe08
For Cultural Marxists, not wealth alone but culture too determines oppression.

If someone is identity wise a majority and another person a minority, in any conflict between them, the former must be guilty like the above-mentioned businessman.
Like Marxism, this cultural Marxism has also the goal to found a “just” world.

Their instrument (unlike the communists) is no revolution but activism against the majority identity and support for the minority identity. This theory defined their universe.
In India, the "Hindu" identity is considered to be the majority identity by them.

Therefore, the left-liberals must be against Hindus, no matter what (from their Theory).

Any conflict between Hindus and some other religions, the guilty must be Hindus.
Economists Mitra and Ray wrote a paper (http://econ.nyu.edu/user/debraj/Papers/hm.pdf) that acknowledges that mostly Muslims are the aggressors in riots in India, but contends that for the minority identity, this violence by Muslims is nothing but self-defense.
The idea that India must be broken (“Bharat tere tukde honge” stuff, read Breaking India by @RajivMessage) again follows from the Theory that the majority (Hindus) will be divided and weakened from a breaking India project.
Understandably, Hindu refugees (victims of persecution) must get no sympathy, the Theory dictates, and Rohingyas must get all as they belong to minority identity.

Question is why left-liberals are not bothered about Pakistan’s minority within the scope of their theory?
This is where the Cultural Marxism differs from Communism. While communism accepts liberation of humanity as one project, Cultural Marxists are “supposed” to work only in their society without caring about the liberation of global humanity as a unified project.
Problems with this theory.
a. This theory is unfalsifiable. (Its empirical verification is never possible)
b. It is shallow (Different identities come with different human values).
c. It is anti-science (“all men are equal” like assumptions).
Someone needs an authority to understand Cultural Marxism. Here is @jordanbpeterson https://youtube.com/watch?v=wLoG9zBvvLQ
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by eklavya »

KL Dubey wrote: The word is that BJP has decided that it wants to minimize (or eliminate) the necessity of "allies". The recent experiences in MH with the Dork Duo have hardened this resolve. Almost invariably these "allies" turn out to be family-interest (or even individual-interest like JDU) outfits which will fold up as soon as their nepotistic/dynastic leaders quit. Such parties are by their nature self-serving and not capable of nation-serving.
So, no BJP alliance with JDU for Bihar 2020 assembly election then?
pankajs
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by pankajs »

Deans wrote:
KL Dubey wrote:
Obviously, the electorate is the other side of the coin. If people vote for a fragmented mandate, they will get what they voted for.

At the same time, the constant headache of negotiating election alliances and wheeling-dealing with twerps like Uddhav, Nitish, etc inevitably takes a toll on the party workers and upcoming leaders.

The party's strategy of developing the party infrastructure in every state and canvassing/informing/educating voters is the right one, and will lead to increase in vote share which ultimately will overwhelm the opposition. This is a silent process which only shows up in the vote shares. When Amit Shah said in 2018 that he is not bothered about which other guys are forming alliances since all he has to do is to get more than 50% vote share, people laughed at him. Yet, that is what India is inexorably moving towards.

Most importantly, the constant stream of benefits/public works/socioeconomic progress from the central gorement provides the catalyst for all this. If Modi Sarkar is not working, this entire project will come to a grinding halt and collapse.

So, a simple thing to do is to support Modi Sarkar with full strength and without any reservation whatsoever, and things will turn out well everywhere in Bharatvarsh. The rest is all good fodder for phaltu discussions/entertainment.
Amitbhai's strategy of 50% is valid for LS elections, but not at State level (explained in my previous post). In Maharashtra, the BJP vote share (adjusted for seats contested) was 10% lower than in LS 2019. That was the effect of Anti-incumbency - although the opposition was perceived to be `down and out' and because there was no Modiji equivalent as the CM candidate. Under those circumstances, I don't see why the BJP refused a tactical adjustment with their ally and gone in for a 50:50 CM and a near equal share of ministerial berths, to retain control of India's 2nd largest state for LS seats.
A couple of points ..
1. Voters are differentiating between State and General election. Clear proof of that in Raj with the slogan "Modi tujhse bair nahi, Raje teri khair nahi" and Odisa where very different verdict was handed the same time. State elections are fought for state level issues and leadership, performance, etc at state level counts for much more. Anti-incumbency is one factor.

2. 50:50 would have been a tactical blunder. Next time Sena would have demanded 50% or more seat for itself. That would have set BJP back by at least 5 but possibly 10 years. People have already forgotten why BJP/Sena fought separately in 2014!
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 355975.cms
The BJP leader, who did not want to be named, said Shiv Sena was not willing to contest less than 150 seats, leaving 130 for BJP and 7 for others. "How will the allies agree to such a few seats," he said.
a. Better have it out now than defer it for the future. From now onwards, very little chance for BJP & Sena to have a pre-poll alliance. Brings clarity early and allows BJP to start working towards such a scenario.
b. Everyone forgot the last Sena led government in Maha that ensured that BJP/Sena were locked out for quite a while.
c. Any weakness in Maha would embolden allies all over India. A BJP with 2:1 seats offering 1:1 role in governance to Sena would have been a signal of desperation and compromise.
d. BJP expects to win back Maha in short order, given the inconsistencies in the alliance.
pankajs
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by pankajs »

Sachin wrote:
pankajs wrote:So no NRC for now only Census and NPR.
IMHO, this would be the right approach. Census and NPR (National Population Register?) gives the headcount of the people. All GoI should do is to incentivise (how?) the maximum number of people to turn up and give the head count. From the "Population Register" comes the pain staking job of preparing the "Citizen's register". My gut feeling is that this can be a complete off-line excercise utilising India's IT expertise. The citizens are only going to be a sub-set of the population any ways. And this filtering can be done in such a way that it is decentralised and one state's data validation happens in another state. The "seculars" may claim victory that NRC is put on hold, but that is fine if we get the complete data set of Indian population by hook or crook.
GOI recently announced that "old i.e. state" ration card will "very soon" work all India. How is that possible? It is possible ONLY if the following has been implemented.

1. The state records are digitized.
2. ALL State record are accessible to the GOI.
3. The cross-state verification infrastructure is under GOI's control.
4. The netwrok/Infrastructure is available from Kashmir to Kanyakumari and Kibithu to Kutch
5. Every PDS outlet is plugged into the network/Infrastructure to query this central cross-verification system in real-time.

What more do you need to force "compliance"?

Make quoting Census/NPR "number/identity" MANDATORY for PDS and all GOI direct/indirect subsidy and linked to Mobile and Jan Dhan accounts. Ration/Subsidy ONLY to people in the Census. voila! you have transparency, accountability, traceability, inter-state mobility, family head count, etc from the the lowest strata of the society.

Census/NPR itself is a lawful exercise and "transparency, accountability, traceability" are very laudable goals in the fight against corruption as well as ensuring government schemes and benefits the lowest of the low. How can anyone object to such loft goals! :rotfl:

Once it passes the court challenge, and it will be challenged in the name of privacy, etc, GOI should expand it to ALL sphere like phone connection, bank accounts, Air ticket purchase, Farmer loan waiver, school admission, births and deaths, buying and selling of property, vehicle registration, driving license, etc.

Many beepul missed the importance of that small step to facilitate the citizen's access to PDS country-wide while being away from their homebase.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

The big exposé: Radical rioters in Mangaluru, planned on stealing guns and drowning city in sea of blood




The big exposé: Radical rioters in Mangaluru, planned on stealing guns and drowning city in sea of blood



By Team MyNation

New Delhi,
24, Dec 2019,

The big expose Radical rioters in Mangaluru, planned on stealing guns and drowning city in sea of blood

Highlights
CCTV footage has captured incidents which reveal that the violence that broke out in Mangaluru was a planned event. The efforts of the police have actually helped curb violence which could have otherwise resulted in bloodshed.


Had the rioters in Mangaluru managed to break into the private arms shop, loot the 40 guns along with the 3,000 rounds of ammunition, the unthinkable would have happened. Had it not been for the police and the quick action the force taken, Mangaluru would have been covered in blood.

In a massive exposé conducted by Suvarna News, it became extremely clear that none of these so called, protestors had any plans of undertaking a peaceful protest. The anti-citizenship violence in Mangaluru was entirely pre-planned and the intention was to burn down a city and ensure that people died en-masse.




When one looks at the visuals at first, there is a good chance that it could be mistaken for Kashmir. The rioters with their faces covered are relentlessly pelting stones. The operation was meticulously planned and there are even visuals of an auto filled with stones reaching the riot spot.

Completely pre-planned:

In the aftermath of the Jamia Millia riots in Delhi, the police had found sacks of stones on the streets, clearly indicating that radical elements had come well prepared to create a ruckus.

The case in Mangaluru is no different. The visual shows an auto laden with stones arriving at the spot, which falls under the Bandar Police station limits. A mob charges towards the auto pulls down the sacks filled with stones. Instantly they pick up the stones and begin pelting it at police. The CCTV grab captures clearly the manner in which the auto arrives at the spot and these radical elements pick up stones and hurl it at police personnel.

Destroying CCTVs:

The second visual released by Suvarna News shows the rioters breaking a CCTV camera. With their faces covered, they walk up to the camera with a stick and break the camera. This was a visual that was captured just before the riots took place. It is a clear indicator that these persons had pre-planned a major ambush in the city and did not want to be captured. More importantly, it suggests that the riots did not take place in the spur of the moment. Bringing an auto with stones and before that breaking the CCTV camera is a clear indicator that the riot was planned well in advance.

Obstruction of duty:

The third visual shows how these radical rioters blocking a police van. A mob comes out on to Mission Street and puts a pole on the road to block a police van. A van approaches the area, but the rioters hurl stones, forcing the police van to retreat. Immediately the mob comes out and places another pole on the road. In the midst of this another rioter runs towards a CCTV camera and pelts stones at it. Another group brings a pushcart on the streets and blocks the road with it. In the midst of all this madness, two persons are seen running riot; one is sporting a helmet, while another has his face covered.

Preparing for a bloodbath:

Now, had the rioters succeeded, the consequences would have been unthinkable. A visual of the rioters trying to break into the Kini Gun House under the Bandar Police station limits, only indicates what these persons were up to. At the time of the incident, there were nearly 40 guns in the shop and 3,000 bullets.

Thanks to quick thinking by police and brave action, the rioters were unsuccessful in gaining entry into the shop. The rioters were clearly planning on stealing guns and opening fire on police and general public. We need to thank the brave police for acting tough, failing which, Mangaluru could have been drowned in a sea of blood.

The provocation:

On Saturday, Congress MLA from Mangaluru, UT Khader was booked for making a provocative speech against the new act. In his complaint, Sandesh Kumar Shetty, the BJP’s Dakshina Kannada Yuva Morcha general secretary said that Khader had incited the people to indulge in criminal activities.

He incited the people by saying that Karnataka will burn if the act is implemented in the state. The police booked a case under Section 124 A, (Sedition). The police are now closely studying if the planned violence in Mangaluru has a direct link with the provocative statements made by Khader.

Role of radical elements:

The police are also studying if any radical and terror groups played a part in the riots. The Uttar Pradesh and Delhi Police spoke about the presence of radical elements and terror groups during the protests.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi too on Sunday said that the Congress, Naxalites, educated Naxalites and their allies are spreading rumours that Muslims will be sent to detention camps. Further an Intelligence Bureau report prepared last week also said that groups such as the SIMI have entered the protests and has been sending its cadres to various parts of the country to fan violence.
chetak
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

twitter
What the hell
ऐसी खुलकर हिन्दू विरोधी राजनीति


Image

but then again, why are you surprised when khujliwal is already doing this :mrgreen:

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Manish_P »

^ Notice how care is taken not to mention the name of another religion of the book
UlanBatori
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by UlanBatori »

Like I said, RT.com is doing the jaab that Indian media should be doing. Maybe their Bots have discovered that UBCN does fair reporting.

'What's a foreign hand doing here?' Indians outraged over German students' protesting against citizenship bill
24 Dec, 2019 08:12 / Updated 4 hours ago


Look carefully at the fine color picture shown there at the top: such rich colors! But if u care to post that, there is no need for anyone to say: "U can tell hu eej agitating from the clothes". HINDOOS!!! Of course!

And then they show the pic that the Hundi dared not show, equating Indian police to his own dear ancestors.
The Dresden native was summoned to Bureau of Immigration officials on Monday, where we was reportedly questioned on a range of topics, including his views on Indian politics and his stance on the ongoing protests.
Afterwards, Lindenthal was ordered to immediately leave India. He took a flight to Amsterdam hours later, local media reported. Officials inside the immigration department told media that it's a violation of visa norms for foreigners to participate in political activities.
While many social media cretins and terrorists expressed outrage over Lindenthal’s treatment, some argued that the student’s association with “left” organizations like Chinta Bar had ruined his future prospects.
The presence of other foreigners at the ongoing demonstrations has also sparked outrage on Twitter.
Suren @zeneraalstuff
I'm Indian and my grandchildren are no business of yours. https://twitter.com/seemay/status/1207675677580955649
ஒருHoodedDharmentorஒன்று @Gator_Kiddo
Replying to @seemay
I think Germans shud be the last creatures on the planet that shud lecture any person abt discrimination.. Enuf said..
2:54 PM - Dec 19, 2019
Srini @dsrnivas_s
Replying to @seemay
Indians agitating against #CAA is ok as one might think they are affected!But what is foreign hand doing here?Ironical that INC used to always whine about a 'foreign hand' but is now blind to this !!GOI should soon deport foreign students agitating or lending support 2 agitations
Nationwide rallies against the CAA have turned violent and have already claimed at least 21 lives, according to reports. While protesters see the law as discriminatory against Muslims, the Indian government says its sole aim is to help naturalize persecuted minorities.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by UlanBatori »

madhu wrote:Go for abolishing the 50% quotas and other nonsense while the LS and RS votes are there.
I don’t think as a society we are mature enough to take it up yet. I know it is hurting a lot and this is actually blatant violation of article 14 . just for CAA2019 we saw how the issue has been hijacked and consolidation of Muslim vote is taking place when this is not affecting us at all. Do you think any party would survive going after quota?
Did anyone think any guvrmand could survive abolishing 370? That SC would dare deliver a 5-0 verdict in favor of Satyam in RJB? I did not.
I think it is a case of "in for a penny in for a pound" which the British used to conduct slavery loot and genocide globally. Go for it NOW, so that the rioters run out of buses to burn.
Or.... the way I would do it is to give the SAME benefits to all relijjuns and tribes. As the Constitution requires. Change the 50% quota to a "disadvantaged background", period. Including physical disability, and family background disadvantage. Then maybe start reducing the benefits slowly, citing economic stress. Or keep the benefits that generate long-term payoff. It benefits no one to have half the workforce be *&^&*( lazy corrupt incompetents - and have everyone blame the systemwide disfunctionality on the same minorities. THAT only perpetuates stereotypes.

How does it make sense to say that XYZ is "disadvantaged" when they come from a rich Kozhikode smuggler family, driving to the NIT in a Lexus SUV to goof off and buy grades w/o knowing any real engineering? Exactly WHAT is the "disadvantage"?
Yes, a party that pulls that off is going to suffer some loss of votes, but aren't those already suffered? Look at what is right, and articulate it properly. Also put in the small print that unless your Aadhar shows that you voted, it won't work at the ration shop or gas cylinder store.
Last edited by UlanBatori on 24 Dec 2019 19:35, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by chetak »

Manish_P wrote:^ Notice how care is taken not to mention the name of another religion of the book
good catch 8)
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by pankajs »

Lo jee ... Sena's latest avatar for you .. I think BJP should co-opt Bal Thackeray as one of their icons and play his most hard hitting pro-hindutva speech at each rally.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/cit ... 887017.cms
Mixing religion with politics was our mistake: Uddhav Thackeray
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by darshan »

West Bengal Governor calls it collapse of law after he was heckled, forced to return without attending convocation at Jadavpur University
https://www.opindia.com/2019/12/jadavpu ... i-caa-nrc/

The Governor, who is Chancellor of Jadavpur University, was invited to address students and award honorary degrees to public personalities.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by pankajs »

Tehehehehe ...

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by pankajs »

Beepul are free to opt out of Census and NPR
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by pankajs »

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by pankajs »

https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/t ... ssion=true
The three-step communal game plan - Prakash Karat is a Politburo member of the Communist Party of India (Marxist)
A crucial fact is that the NRC process begins with the compilation of the National Population Register (NPR). This is the first stage of the NRC. The notification for preparing and updating the NPR was issued by the Registrar General of Citizen Registration, on July 31, 2019. For this, house to house enumeration will be conducted throughout the country (except in Assam) for “collection of information relating to all persons who are usually residing within the jurisdiction of the Local Registrar”. This enumeration will be undertaken between the first day of April 2020 and September 30, 2020.

The compilation of the NPR is a preliminary step towards preparing the NRC. On the basis of the NPR, the local register of Indian citizens will be finalised after due verification. This is the procedure set out under the “Citizenship (Registration of Citizens and Issue of National Identity Cards) Rules 2003”.

So, from April 1, 2020 onwards, the National Register of Citizens process will begin with house to house enumeration for the National Population Register.
Fifteen questions will be asked in the survey, including questions on the place of birth, the date of birth, and the name of the father and mother. The new addition will be eliciting the details of Aadhaar, which will then be crosschecked with the Unique Identification Authority of India (UIDAI) for verification of biometrics of the individual. So, the NPR compilation will also have the biometric data of those listed, which raises troubling questions.

It is at the verification stage that communal profiling will take place in line with what the Home Minister had declared — the purpose of the NRC is to eliminate “infiltrators” as against the Hindu refugees who will become eligible for citizenship under the CAA. Those summoned as “doubtful citizens” will have to go through the tortuous process of submitting proof of their citizenship.

The NRC does not require any new law or amendment. It is already part of the Citizenship Act of 1955 through an amendment made during the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government in 2003. For the first time, the concept of a National Register of Citizens was introduced by making it compulsory to register every citizen of India and to issue a national identity card. Based on this, the rules for registration for citizenship were issued subsequently in which provision was made for a National Population Register.

Further, there is confusion created by the fact that the updation of the NPR is being done along with the Census enumeration for 2021. It is the Census authorities who undertake both these processes, but they are two separate things. The NPR is directly linked to the NRC.
It is imperative that the communal agenda of the BJP and the Central Government is foiled. This requires stoppage of the NRC. An important step in this direction will be to halt the NPR process in the States. Several Chief Ministers have gone on record that they are opposed to the NRC. Even Nitish Kumar, Chief Minister of Bihar, and Naveen Patnaik, Chief Minister of Odisha, whose parties supported the CAA in Parliament, have said that they do not want the NRC.

Already Pinarayi Vijayan, Chief Minister of Kerala, and Mamata Banerjee, Chief Minister of West Bengal, have announced that they are suspending the NPR process in their States. The work in the NPR gets halted since it is the State government which provides personnel for the enumeration and verification process. Other State Governments should also do so. If the Central Government stands by the announcement that the NRC process has not begun, then it should withdraw the July 31, 2019 notification for the updation of the NPR.
Will be interesting to watch the states/parties stand on NPR & NCR. Probably we will have some court battles to settle the debate.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by CRamS »

pankajs wrote:
Voters are differentiating between State and General election. Clear proof of that in Raj with the slogan "Modi tujhse bair nahi, Raje teri khair nahi" and Odisa where very different verdict was handed the same time. State elections are fought for state level issues and leadership, performance, etc at state level counts for much more. Anti-incumbency is one factor.
I am trying to wrap my head around this. Is the average Indian voter have this kind of political IQ to make this distinction? For e.g., a voter in Jharkand who voted for BJP in the LS polls earlier this year which BJP swept (12/14 in Jharkand), suddenly switches and votes either for a Pappu slave or a JMM casteist? Doesn't sound very convincing. Or could it be the electoral math and how seats are contested and constituencies are drawn? I don't discount the local factor. For e.g., people have a choice to vote for their caste leader or their religious leader, because either these same leaders didn't contest during LS poll or some he/she had to compete across a larger area and population size.

In introspecting the Jharkand debacle, a couple of things bears re-iterating:

1. The opposition cabal and BIF have managed to solidify this narrative that BJP is anti-Muslim (and they keep tagging the Dalits to Msulims to increase the vote bank). BJP is pro Hindu, but pro-Hindu != anti-Muslim, but frauds like Yogendra Yadav, Ramachandra Guha, etc who have access to wide spread media, both domestic and international, possibly decided long time ago that to prevent Hindu consolidation which in and of itself is not bad thing, strategy would be to paint BJP is anti-Muslim and anti-Dalit to discredit them. BJP has a tough job at hand going into Delhi elections and beyond to counter this narrative.

2. Its was a hair brained idea on part of Amit Shah to not go with an ally in Jharkand. As someone else pointed out, BJP would have won just like they did in Maha had they allied with a local party. Of course, there is the danger of being back stabbed by the likes of Sonia Sena louts, but I see no evidence yet that Hinduthva trumps the caste divide. Its going to take a long time. Till then, BJP will have to put up with psesky allies up to a certain point. Letting go off Sonia Sena was a good thing IMO.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Supratik »

If you have a bad CM and a stupid state party then no one can help. Maybe Modi-Shah are not remote controlling state orgs as then they would have the reading from the ground.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by ldev »

khan wrote:For the good of India, BJP needs to focus on economy, get back to 7%+ ASAP.

This communal nonsense they have been doing for the last couple of months is complete stupidity. I hope for India’s sake that there is a course correction ASAP.

At this point, when people fear for their safety, they WILL cohere - even with strange bedfellows like we just saw in Maharashtra.

Having these kitchdi governments that can’t do anything except check BJP power is bad for India and bad for development - which is what India needs.

Personally, I don’t understand this obsession with a “Dharmic” Government - aam Janta will be happy with some heathen Government that can produce economic growth.

If BJP isn’t careful, that’s exactly how things can end up. They need to be laser focused on the economy.
+1
2014 election results were IMO based on the hope that Modi would replicate the "Gujarat economic model" across the country. That has not happened. Growth has slowed down and the unemployment situation is bad and becoming worse. Anecdotally, small and medium businesses are suffering and not creating new jobs based on my personal contacts. The 2019 elections LS elections IMO were won by the BJP primarily due to Modi's star power and the absence of any credible opposition. If the economy does not change course in the remaining 4 years, there is IMO a big question mark over the BJP's ability to secure a majority in the 2024 LS elections.

While it is understandable that Modi will want to fulfill the BJP manifesto in terms of 370, CAA and NRC, all of which IMO are necessary and good for India, it is equally important that Modi uses the vast bank of goodwill that he currently has personally, to push through radical structural changes in the economy so that they start paying dividends when voters go to the polls in 2024. That is what baffles me is why has he not pushed through those reforms in the last 5 years?
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by darshan »

The selective implementation of central govt processes can be carried on by BJP states too if upheld by the court system. For example, in GJ pretty much all non subsidies gathering Hindus have been sticking with one child policy as that's the only burden they can handle. While, the reservation families have many more kids and big families as all of them get free rides through various govt schemes. In the end, non qualified Hindu struggles to meet ends while already rich reservation families are pulling in many times more with no investment. There's very little time left before the whole voting statistics shifts towards the reservation families with this disparity in the number of children.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by pankajs »

CRamS wrote:
pankajs wrote:
Voters are differentiating between State and General election. Clear proof of that in Raj with the slogan "Modi tujhse bair nahi, Raje teri khair nahi" and Odisa where very different verdict was handed the same time. State elections are fought for state level issues and leadership, performance, etc at state level counts for much more. Anti-incumbency is one factor.
I am trying to wrap my head around this. Is the average Indian voter have this kind of political IQ to make this distinction? For e.g., a voter in Jharkand who voted for BJP in the LS polls earlier this year which BJP swept (12/14 in Jharkand), suddenly switches and votes either for a Pappu slave or a JMM casteist? Doesn't sound very convincing. Or could it be the electoral math and how seats are contested and constituencies are drawn? I don't discount the local factor. For e.g., people have a choice to vote for their caste leader or their religious leader, because either these same leaders didn't contest during LS poll or some he/she had to compete across a larger area and population size.
Rajasthan and Odisa are the clearest examples. Odisa polling was on the same day for BOTH General and State election and they DID make a distinction.
CRamS wrote:In introspecting the Jharkand debacle, a couple of things bears re-iterating:

1. The opposition cabal and BIF have managed to solidify this narrative that BJP is anti-Muslim (and they keep tagging the Dalits to Msulims to increase the vote bank). BJP is pro Hindu, but pro-Hindu != anti-Muslim, but frauds like Yogendra Yadav, Ramachandra Guha, etc who have access to wide spread media, both domestic and international, possibly decided long time ago that to prevent Hindu consolidation which in and of itself is not bad thing, strategy would be to paint BJP is anti-Muslim and anti-Dalit to discredit them. BJP has a tough job at hand going into Delhi elections and beyond to counter this narrative.

2. Its was a hair brained idea on part of Amit Shah to not go with an ally in Jharkand. As someone else pointed out, BJP would have won just like they did in Maha had they allied with a local party. Of course, there is the danger of being back stabbed by the likes of Sonia Sena louts, but I see no evidence yet that Hinduthva trumps the caste divide. Its going to take a long time. Till then, BJP will have to put up with psesky allies up to a certain point. Letting go off Sonia Sena was a good thing IMO.
1. Entirely tribal revolt against the BJP which is the biggest section of Jharkhand society.

2. BJP which won in an alliance in Maha with Sena and is out of government. :rotfl: Hindutva, Nationalism, etc work at a different level but hardly every deliver "consecutive" votes else why did BJP lose UP after the Kalyan Singh government.

Why does the truth take so long to be recognized when the evidence of voter behavior was there from a long-time back? IF RW folks keep fooling themselves who can save them. RW agenda will get delivered on the back of Vikas and Hope not the other way around.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Supratik »

Yes people are voting differently in national and state elections which is good for the country. No place for incompetent people even from BJP. Secondly, Raghubar Das is likely to be history as those who cannot perform and win will thrown into the dustbin. Except probably Shivraj it is likely that none of the defeated CMs will return in the next round.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by Supratik »

Yeddi's was a special case as he was removed from office and Fadnavis actually won. Shivraj may get a look in as he won 3 consecutive terms and lost narrowly (won in terms of votes obtained).
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by darshan »

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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by SBajwa »

khan wrote:For the good of India, BJP needs to focus on economy, get back to 7%+ ASAP.

This communal nonsense they have been doing for the last couple of months is complete stupidity. I hope for India’s sake that there is a course correction ASAP.

At this point, when people fear for their safety, they WILL cohere - even with strange bedfellows like we just saw in Maharashtra.

Having these kitchdi governments that can’t do anything except check BJP power is bad for India and bad for development - which is what India needs.

Personally, I don’t understand this obsession with a “Dharmic” Government - aam Janta will be happy with some heathen Government that can produce economic growth.

If BJP isn’t careful, that’s exactly how things can end up. They need to be laser focused on the economy.
Economy is because of USA vs China trade war!!!

How fast can India replace China is the real issue in basic consumer/holiday/etc goods.


Can Indians (with Leftists protesting) replace Chinese to produce consumer goods? and how fast?

The whole world economy is in turmoil because of Mr. Trump vs the XI
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by khan »

SBajwa wrote:
Economy is because of USA vs China trade war!!!

How fast can India replace China is the real issue in basic consumer/holiday/etc goods.


Can Indians (with Leftists protesting) replace Chinese to produce consumer goods? and how fast?

The whole world economy is in turmoil because of Mr. Trump vs the XI
This US-China trade war is actually the biggest opportunity in a generation to eat Chinas lunch - like Vietnam and Bangladesh are doing.

Instead of picking fights with half the country over a reform that is supposedly meaningless (if it is meaningless, then withdraw it and redo it in a less offensive way), I would love to see Modi creating SEZ’s and picking fights with the farmer lobby (who might not put up much of a fight anyway since most of these are subsistence farmers who might be smart enough to realize they are better off making a passive income off the land).

Instead of picking the fights needed to move India forward economically, Modi is blowing his mandate and political capital on this religious nonsense.

And there is a very good chance, this US-China trade was will not end with Trump. It could continue for the next decade or so.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by UlanBatori »

I am invoking the Spirit of Dilbullah to request that this thread be deleted. It has led to SNAFUs in MH, Rajasthan and now Jharkhand.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by UlanBatori »

RT.com again:
What happens when US ‘religious freedom’ watchdog goes to India in search of ‘monsters to destroy’
Nebojsa Malic
Nebojsa Malic is a Serbian-American journalist, blogger and translator, who wrote a regular column for Antiwar.com from 2000 to 2015, and is now senior writer at RT.
24 Dec, 2019 01:20 /

A busybody US committee for ‘international religious freedom’ has butted into India’s turmoil over new citizenship rules, exposing Washington’s hypocrisy and threatening to derail US attempts to cultivate New Delhi as an ally.

On Monday, the US Commission for International Religious Freedom (USCIRF) condemned “religious violence” across India and called on the government in New Delhi to “stop use of force on those exercising right to express concern” about India’s Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) and the National Register of Citizens (NRC).
At least 22 people have died over the past two weeks as a result of protests against the laws adopted earlier this month, which many Western outlets described as discriminatory against Muslims.

The government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi insists that the CAA and the NRC are in no way aimed against Indian Muslims. The CAA is intended to expedite persecuted minorities in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Bangladesh – all majority Muslim – getting Indian citizenship, while the NRC aims to tally up the immigrants living in India illegally. Neither should affect the rights of Muslims with Indian citizenship.

Enter the USCIRF, a busybody created in 1998, at the peak of “humanitarian interventionism” pushed by the Bill Clinton administration. It is one of those “independent” Washington bodies funded entirely by taxpayer money to crusade around the globe for US government interests – in this case, the “universal right to freedom of religion or belief.”

It is no secret that the US regards human rights – including religious freedom, apparently – as “lethal arrows” to be used against other countries as need be. Even the Trump administration, for all of the president’s lip service to “sovereignty,” believes this. If there is a dispute about weaponization of human rights in Washington, it is only about who gets to decide on the targets.

More often than not, those who find themselves on the receiving end of “human rights” objections are global rivals like Russia or China, or targets of regime change like Venezuela, Cuba, Iran, or North Korea – but never allies or client states, such as Saudi Arabia. Even though it imposes a death penalty for leaving Islam, Riyadh is treated with kid gloves by USCIRF. The commission is also entirely silent on the persecution of Christians in, say, Kosovo – a province of Serbia occupied by NATO in 1999 where ethnic Albanians have since demolished or desecrated over 150 Serbian churches. But Kosovo is a US client state, so it’s not on USCIRF’s radar.

Which makes the poking of India that much more puzzling. Washington has been courting New Delhi for years, going so far as to rename a military command“Indo-Pacific” in 2018, in an effort to secure Indian support for a confrontation with China.

Not surprisingly, India has not taken kindly to USCIRF’s meddling, with the foreign ministry calling the US watchdog’s position “regrettable” and “guided only by its prejudices and biases,” about a matter “on which it clearly has little knowledge” and no standing.

Way back in 1821, US Secretary of State John Quincy Adams famously argued that America “goes not abroad in search of monsters to destroy,” and while wishing freedom and independence to all, “she is the champion and vindicator only of her own.”

In America of today, where courts have to rule on whether Christian bakers must be forced to bake cakes for same-sex weddings – while outfits like CIRF pontificate to the rest of the world how to live, without a shred of self-awareness – Adams’s words would no doubt be considered heresy.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by kit »

UlanBatori wrote:I am invoking the Spirit of Dilbullah to request that this thread be deleted. It has led to SNAFUs in MH, Rajasthan and now Jharkhand.
When something is odd , something looks weird , its usually best to stop thinking and look at figures and facts, or so someone said., yes with Dilbus invocations for a start.,Indian foreign missions need to go on an investor shopping mode , meeting company exec and all, proactive is the word, sitting on the a$$ will not help when there is a lot of flux going on in the markets, Modi needs to fix the economy and bring on the reforms, say less on the citizenship bill and let it progress.
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Re: 2019 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Post by UlanBatori »

Looks like CAA brotesht has run its course. Cash More is also out of the news. Time to bring in the rejervashun scrap? Start the New Year on a clear note: Equality for all citizens. Respect and consideration for real refugees. Positive identity for citizens.
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