West Asia News and Discussions

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 31 Dec 2019 18:17

And the US SD etc are into a fresh round of Iran-goading, complete with embassy attacks (which requires obligatory replenishment of cruise missile stocks).

This time the Iraq government has officially condommed the US attacks, which appear to be right there with the Gulf-of-Tonkin-White-Helmets scams. 2 US military contractors (presumably engaged in the oil-relieving bijnej) were killed in a mortar attack, and the US of course blamed it on Hezbollah. But what they hit is an IRAQI GOVT facility!!!

Needed a distraction because the White Helmets Chemical Attacks narrative is really unraveling now with the Newsweek Expose (meaning the expose of Newsweek suppressing their own report).

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 31 Dec 2019 20:09

Anyone notice how 'protestors/what's-it-called' from Turk lands are 'diverted' to Libya from Syria. Just shows how important it is to have good defence and not be at mercy of such moves by ambitious international political forces.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 01 Jan 2020 13:04

Gulf War 3 on the horizon? The US is sending more troops to the region.A " wag the dog" plot to get Trump re-elected?
Will we watch the ME burn again in 2020? All bets are off!

The US attacking and killing 24 Iraqis suposedly Iraqi Hiz fighters after a US contractor was killed, has provoked a massive attack against its embassy where the outer perimeters have been penetrated and damaged.The US attacks on the Iraqi fighters was condemned by the Iraqi govt. calling it a breach of its sovereignty and against its pleas.

The US continues to blame Iran for everything wrong in the ME conveniently forgetting who originally armed Saddam, to wage war against Iran and who invaded Iraq on a plethora of lies by Bush and Blair, especially Saddam's non-existant WMDs, lusting after its oil and antiquities,looting and scooting, allowing the majority Shiites of Iraq to gain politically. Urged on repeatedly by Bib N, the embattled Israeli PM, an avowed enemy of Iran, the prospect of peace in the oil-rich region is remote. Coupled with a global economic downturn, 2020 may prove to be a distasrous year ahead , especially in W.Asia/ME.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 01 Jan 2020 19:13

This is nothing compared to some influential US politicians and Indian leftists saying "Hindu Militants " did Chittisinghpura. I guess for some the world is indeed flat

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 02 Jan 2020 15:35

Philip wrote:Gulf War 3 on the horizon? The US is sending more troops to the region.A " wag the dog" plot to get Trump re-elected?
Will we watch the ME burn again in 2020? All bets are off!.

Irrespective, No stakeholder is in a position to wage a war. Iranian Mullahs have no incentive in waging a overt war and Trump would not want to start a war in election year

Bibi maybe interested but unless DT is onboard, There is no way war would engulf ME.
The last influential stake holder is KSA and the way their war in Yemen is going, Very much doubt if they would want to open a front against Shia crescent and threaten the crown.
I think we will still see covert ops and snipping at each other but no flare up.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 03 Jan 2020 00:42

Philip, Not likely.
Iran is difficult terrain.
Tomahawks will do superficial damage.
And Iran knows when to back down to live another day.

However Turkey meddling in Libya is likely to rise Egypt's historical ghosts.

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 03 Jan 2020 08:15

Media reporting IRGC general Qasem Soleimani of Iran has just been killed in a U.S drone strike at Baghdad Airport. As of now, death is not confirmed by US, Iran or Iraq. If true, this is big.

pravula · Post by **pravula** » 03 Jan 2020 08:49

Looks like its confirmed now....

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 03 Jan 2020 08:53

Yep. Confirmed from US side but no word from Iran yet. AFP quoting pentagon sources says Trump ordered the killing.

Statement fron DoD

amitverma · Post by **amitverma** » 03 Jan 2020 08:55

The US confirmed that drone kill was done on orders of Donald Trump.
Source: Zee Business

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 03 Jan 2020 09:13

Iran's State TV confirms the assassination of Soleimani. Soleimani has cult status within Iran and among Shia militias in the region. Internally, there will be immense pressure within Iran to retaliate. But Trump has proved that he is willing to take risks and escalate.

mmasand · Post by **mmasand** » 03 Jan 2020 09:24

Rony wrote:Iran's State TV confirms the assassination of Soleimani. Soleimani has cult status within Iran and among Shia militias in the region. Internally, there will be immense pressure within Iran to retaliate. But Trump has proved that he is willing to take risks and escalate.

Will aside, the Pentagon better have a strategy in place,. It's an election year and his impatience seems palpable, but what happens to its allies just across the gulf? With several bases in the region from Bahrain to Kuwait, deeper inside Saudi and UAE, any reprisal will have far reaching consequences.

hnair · Post by **hnair** » 03 Jan 2020 09:42

Qasim Suleimani, is a classic case of a competent third-world guy, who thought he can take on the white man in death dealing. At one point, he made all the right moves, but his political system did not give him enough political advise on when to back off, after he made his point.

Let us see what Persians are made of - will they endanger the leadership of professional militaries of west and up the ante? Because that is what just got meted out to them

nandakumar · Post by **nandakumar** » 03 Jan 2020 09:47

Meanwhile crude oil is up nearly two dollars per barrel in the last hour or so.

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 03 Jan 2020 10:34

https://twitter.com/Alkuwait_alomh1/sta ... 19298?s=20
https://twitter.com/Alkuwait_alomh1/sta ... 09856?s=20

Videos of Iraqis celebrating the assassination of Suleimani. The reason is this happened in the context of the anti-government protests in Iraq where the Pro-Iranian militias under orders of Suleimani killed hundreds of Iraqi protesters.

John · Post by **John** » 03 Jan 2020 10:50

hnair wrote:Qasim Suleimani, is a classic case of a competent third-world guy, who thought he can take on the white man in death dealing. At one point, he made all the right moves, but his political system did not give him enough political advise on when to back off, after he made his point.

Let us see what Persians are made of - will they endanger the leadership of professional militaries of west and up the ante? Because that is what just got meted out to them

The decision by militia to fire missiles was pretty dumb move, I think Qassem was hoping by Iraqi PM some diversion who was facing protests because Qassem’s militia killed the protesters. He was hoping US would arrest some milita members, which he would used as a way to launch Protests at the embassy. I don’t think he was expecting air strikes.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 03 Jan 2020 10:50

Vikas wrote:
Philip wrote:Gulf War 3 on the horizon? The US is sending more troops to the region.A " wag the dog" plot to get Trump re-elected?
Will we watch the ME burn again in 2020? All bets are off!.
Irrespective, No stakeholder is in a position to wage a war. Iranian Mullahs have no incentive in waging a overt war and Trump would not want to start a war in election year

Bibi maybe interested but unless DT is onboard, There is no way war would engulf ME.
The last influential stake holder is KSA and the way their war in Yemen is going, Very much doubt if they would want to open a front against Shia crescent and threaten the crown.
I think we will still see covert ops and snipping at each other but no flare up.

USA has cast the first stone with targeted assassination.
Lets see when Iran would send bombers to blow up a Saudi refinery or take a shot at one of the ships in Indo-Persian Gulf.

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 03 Jan 2020 10:52

They wont attack Americans directly to avoid even harsher Trump response. Most likely targeting Saudi interests or activating their assets in Iraq for more anti-US protests or attacking Israel through Hezbollah. Israel can defend itself and may even retaliate inside Iran. Saudis will be the sitting ducks again.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 03 Jan 2020 11:10

The US has dramatically increased the likelihood of another ME war with this assassination.It is as momentous to the ME wars as the assassination of Adm.Yamamoto by US forces in WW2 shooting down his transport. Gen.QS was the most important military man in the ME responsible for several successful mil. ops especially finishing off ISIS on the ground.While the US and Israel may be jubilant, the Iranians willnot let this blow go unpunished.If they're smart, it will be asstmetric warfare in reply,using terror attacks,etc. They can't take on the US in a conventional spat.

Meanwhile, Trump is ensuring that he will win handsomely in Nov. with this well- calculated precision mach strike, where no US lives were lost in ghe operation.The Demo demons can now forget about impeaching him."Wag the dog" Donald!

habal · Post by **habal** » 03 Jan 2020 11:26

this has nothing to do with Trump, this is the deep state acting against key people who foiled their Syrian plans. IRGC general was key in foiling plans of isis/nusra and their collaborators in Syria, so they have been eying him for pretty long time. He and Putin were key in reversing all isis gains in syria & iraq. For Putin, they have a smear russia campaign in place which has limited mileage and the irgc general they have tried to take him out through targeted assasination. Now isis will try to raise their head again to check if the latest move by their benefactors has some effect on the ground. Await shock & awe moves by isis in palmyra & deir ez zor.

abhik · Post by **abhik** » 03 Jan 2020 11:29

I beginning to believe that the Iranians may have decided that they need to ratchet up till an "aar-paar" war is triggered. The sub conventional war that they are fighting may have become unsustainable, the continuous fighting in the region is sapping their strength, sanctions are crippling the economy and they are having to fend off color revolutions at home turf. Meanwhile their adversaries are having a mostly free run (except the saudis with the Yemeni misadventure). The US and allies do have overwhelming conventional military advantage but the Iranians do have a few aces up their sleeves (as shown in the Saudi Refinery cruise missile strike) which the us are not really prepared for.

chetonzz · Post by **chetonzz** » 03 Jan 2020 11:33

Rony wrote:They wont attack Americans directly to avoid even harsher Trump response. Most likely targeting Saudi interests or activating their assets in Iraq for more anti-US protests or attacking Israel through Hezbollah. Israel can defend itself and may even retaliate inside Iran. Saudis will be the sitting ducks again.

pakhistanis must be shitting bricks anticipating the same...since they/raheel are the "bouncers" for Saudis who'll face the song after that...

habal · Post by **habal** » 03 Jan 2020 11:42

hnair wrote:Qasim Suleimani, is a classic case of a competent third-world guy, who thought he can take on the white man in death dealing. At one point, he made all the right moves, but his political system did not give him enough political advise on when to back off, after he made his point.

Let us see what Persians are made of - will they endanger the leadership of professional militaries of west and up the ante? Because that is what just got meted out to them

qassem soleimani was not the typical smart general. He took way too many risks and almost borders on taunting the enemy. He was also highly regarded by the russians and he was instrumental in making action plan for retrieving the surviving russian pilot who survived the Su25 crash.

darshhan · Post by **darshhan** » 03 Jan 2020 13:51

Rony wrote:Media reporting IRGC general Qasem Soleimani of Iran has just been killed in a U.S drone strike at Baghdad Airport. As of now, death is not confirmed by US, Iran or Iraq. If true, this is big.

This is indeed big. Tipping point is near.

kit · Post by **kit** » 03 Jan 2020 14:13

Don't think the Iranians will escalate in a big way publicly at least. They will bide their time. I would expect them to increase their oil sales in the black to increase ., also expect a few attacks on oil tankers

kit · Post by **kit** » 03 Jan 2020 14:14

habal wrote:this has nothing to do with Trump, this is the deep state acting against key people who foiled their Syrian plans. IRGC general was key in foiling plans of isis/nusra and their collaborators in Syria, so they have been eying him for pretty long time. He and Putin were key in reversing all isis gains in syria & iraq. For Putin, they have a smear russia campaign in place which has limited mileage and the irgc general they have tried to take him out through targeted assasination. Now isis will try to raise their head again to check if the latest move by their benefactors has some effect on the ground. Await shock & awe moves by isis in palmyra & deir ez zor.

correct the ISIS/CIA is down but not out!

Shaktimaan · Post by **Shaktimaan** » 03 Jan 2020 14:30

Philip wrote:The US has dramatically increased the likelihood of another ME war with this assassination.It is as momentous to the ME wars as the assassination of Adm.Yamamoto by US forces in WW2 shooting down his transport. Gen.QS was the most important military man in the ME responsible for several successful mil. ops especially finishing off ISIS on the ground.While the US and Israel may be jubilant, the Iranians willnot let this blow go unpunished.If they're smart, it will be asstmetric warfare in reply,using terror attacks,etc. They can't take on the US in a conventional spat.

Meanwhile, Trump is ensuring that he will win handsomely in Nov. with this well- calculated precision mach strike, where no US lives were lost in ghe operation.The Demo demons can now forget about impeaching him."Wag the dog" Donald!

Saar, Admiral Yamamoto was shot down in April 1943, after Japan had lost the decisive battles of Midway and Guadacanal.

The American war machine was just cranking up to full speed
Japan's fate was already sealed at that point. So Yamamoto being shot down was hardly a momentous world changing event by then.

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 03 Jan 2020 14:54

Philip wrote:The US has dramatically increased the likelihood of another ME war with this assassination.It is as momentous to the ME wars as the assassination of Adm.Yamamoto by US forces in WW2 shooting down his transport. Gen.QS was the most important military man in the ME responsible for several successful mil. ops especially finishing off ISIS on the ground.While the US and Israel may be jubilant, the Iranians willnot let this blow go unpunished.If they're smart, it will be asstmetric warfare in reply,using terror attacks,etc. They can't take on the US in a conventional spat.

What are chances of there being an ISI hand behind this? Even pakis have a border prob with Iran don't they. Could they have helped US in ID'ing the Gen?

habal · Post by **habal** » 03 Jan 2020 15:04

muhandis who was killed in this strike along with qasem soleimani is the most influential military leader in iraq who fought against isis. I would rate him even higher than soleimani as far as western iraq and eastern syria is concerned.

kit · Post by **kit** » 03 Jan 2020 15:14

Karthik S wrote:
Philip wrote:The US has dramatically increased the likelihood of another ME war with this assassination.It is as momentous to the ME wars as the assassination of Adm.Yamamoto by US forces in WW2 shooting down his transport. Gen.QS was the most important military man in the ME responsible for several successful mil. ops especially finishing off ISIS on the ground.While the US and Israel may be jubilant, the Iranians willnot let this blow go unpunished.If they're smart, it will be asstmetric warfare in reply,using terror attacks,etc. They can't take on the US in a conventional spat.
What are chances of there being an ISI hand behind this? Even pakis have a border prob with Iran don't they. Could they have helped US in ID'ing the Gen?

the pakis are a juicy target for the Iranians even if remotely that could have happened !!

vinod · Post by **vinod** » 03 Jan 2020 15:15

I guess it was too good an opportunity for US to miss - big shots all in one place at at the same time. Good intel!!

mahadevbhu · Post by **mahadevbhu** » 03 Jan 2020 15:21

Isn't the middle east a place where Indian foreign policy, over the long run, is necessary to bring peace to it - India has relations with the larger players there. However, bringing them to the peace table to talk and to curtail their gunda-gardi is going to prove to be a different matter altogether.

habal · Post by **habal** » 03 Jan 2020 15:26

mid-east is a cake, guy with biggest gun will take this cake.

rgosain · Post by **rgosain** » 03 Jan 2020 15:40

vinod wrote:I guess it was too good an opportunity for US to miss - big shots all in one place at at the same time. Good intel!!

Correct, fortune favours the brave. The iranians will huff and puff in that whining condescending tone, but nothing will happen. Back in 87 the Us demolished the Kharg island facility and destroyed the Iranian navy, followed by the downing of the Airbus in 1988 by USS Vincences, but nothing came of that.
I wonder what will happen to their new found friendship with the turks and paks.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 03 Jan 2020 16:08

ME will remain in the throes of covert war in foreseeable future. Unless Iran is sorted out by USA/Israel or Shia power claims a decisive victory over KSA, we will see ebb and flow of jingoism in Middle East.
No one is innocent party here and everyone has their own axe to grind.

Just throwing out there - What if India decisively decides to be in KSA/Israel camp offering maritime security and protection.
How would that alter the perception and power of key players in the region ?

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 03 Jan 2020 16:13

Vikas wrote:Just throwing out there - What if India decisively decides to be in KSA/Israel camp offering maritime security and protection.How would that alter the perception and power of key players in the region ?

Why we need to take such a hard stance in the first place? Nothing to gain more than what we are gaining now from Israel and KSA by doing so right? IMO, we need to continue to be how we are, engage with everyone and not taking sides. We got our own battles to fight closer to and inside our home.

habal · Post by **habal** » 03 Jan 2020 16:22

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/12/ ... 05159.html

this was just a week ago.
message is to middle east countries, russia & china cannot be your benefactors and cannot come to your rescue.

guess who should then come to irans support once it does some covert/overt action if they want to maintain street credibility in mideast.

vinod · Post by **vinod** » 03 Jan 2020 16:29

If the bombs start going off, India's main interest should be in negotiating with Iran and US to secure the Chabahar port for us one way or the other.

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 03 Jan 2020 16:37

vinod wrote:If the bombs start going off, India's main interest should be in negotiating with Iran and US to secure the Chabahar port for us one way or the other.

I'd rather look at the border India shares with Afghanistan. When the world attention is somewhere else, it'd be a good time to build some roads.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 03 Jan 2020 16:47

Karthik S wrote:
vinod wrote:If the bombs start going off, India's main interest should be in negotiating with Iran and US to secure the Chabahar port for us one way or the other.
I'd rather look at the border India shares with Afghanistan. When the world attention is somewhere else, it'd be a good time to build some roads.

border India shares with Afghanistan ? Where Saar ?
Unless you meant, build road thru POK and connect with A'stan.

ME players are crazy but not that crazy to burn up the grass and oil empires they have created.