Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

[saip]

The virus uses ACE2 receptor to gain entry into cells. ACE 2 receptors are far more common in East Asians - 5 times as much - as in other races. East Asians are like buffet for the damn thing.

If so why would the Chinese do it? Unless they wanted to release it in ndia. CIA, then?

[chola]

The virus uses ACE2 receptor to gain entry into cells. ACE 2 receptors are far more common in East Asians - 5 times as much - as in other races. East Asians are like buffet for the damn thing.

If so why would the Chinese do it? Unless they wanted to release it in ndia. CIA, then?

It would have little affect on India except for the Northeast. Nearly none for our economic centers.

[UlanBatori]

See Korea news:
They have **NOT** banned entry from cheen.

President Moon Jae-in said Sunday that South Korea is "certainly" capable of bringing the ongoing novel coronavirus outbreak under control and advised people not to have excessive fear.

He voiced confidence in the government's fight against the two-month-long pandemic, which originated in China, while meeting with residents in Jincheon, North Chungcheong Province and Asan, South Chungcheong Province.

The Moon administration chartered flights to bring a total of 701 South Koreans home from the Chinese city of Wuhan on Jan. 31 and Feb. 1. They remain accommodated in isolation at state-run facilities in Jincheon and Asan, both located roughly 90 kilometers south of Seoul.

"What's certain, above all, is that we have clearly confirmed that we can adequately handle the new contagious disease with our quarantine system and overcome it," the president said in a meeting with Asan residents after visiting the Police Human Resources Development Institute in the county, which serves as the provisional home of 528 evacuees.
Moon said South Korea has learned a lot about the disease via its related response so far.
South Korea has reported 25 confirmed cases as of Sunday afternoon without a death. Three patients have been fully healed and discharged from hospitals.
"We got to know that despite unfortunate infections, a complete cure is possible, without any big danger if appropriate treatment is taken," Moon added.
The coronavirus is known to have a lower fatality rate than severe acute respiratory syndrome, although it appears to be more contagious.
He asked the public to continue their daily work and routine activities, without excessive anxiety and worrying.
"I would like to tell you that it's a way to prevent the difficulties of the national and local economies from deepening," he said, adding it's the government's duty to make all-out efforts to control the disease.
He then toured the Onyang traditional market in Asan apparently in a show of his commitment to focus on improving the people's livelihoods.
Earlier in the day, Moon made a trip to Jincheon for similar schedules.
He looked around the National Human Resources Development Institute, another tentative quarantine compound for Wuhan evacuees.
Moon assured local residents that his government will concentrate efforts not just on combating the viral outbreak itself but also on minimizing its impact on the local economy.
"It's natural that local residents feel anxiety," Moon said.
Nonetheless, they "warmly" embraced the compatriots, treating them like "families and brothers," the president said.
"I thank you all once again," he said, taking note of the role of provincial and county authorities in the process.
Moon pledged that his administration will "make maximum efforts" and take "various measures" in cooperation with the local governments to prevent the pandemic from having negative effects on the regions' economy.
The president's visit to the regions reflects his concerns not only about quarantine measures related to the virus but also the pandemic's impact on the local economy, according to a Cheong Wa Dae official. (Yonhap)

[UlanBatori]

Japanese are not even thinking about it

[SriKumar]

...well, only if they have already decided to postpone the Olympics 2020, or if they know the virus threat will end before July, by which time tens of thousands of Chinese tourists from all provinces will come to Japan to cheer their teams of Chinese atheletes for the month of the games, and generally use that opportunity to tour the country. Any remnant of viruses there will travel across the world when the non-Japanese athletes and tourists go back to home countries in Asia/Africa/Europe.

[Rony]

Japanese are not even thinking about it

[Arun.prabhu]

We don’t have official confirmation from researchers that the virus is engineered. We have circumstantial evidence, coincidences and a few researchers who have gone online with papers that conclude it was created in the lab, possibly.

As for ACE2 receptor, SARS targets the same receptor for entry into cells. NCoV is simply more infectious than SARS and the Chinese bungled the first fifty days of response horribly. And with epidemics, it becomes almost impossible to control them once the growth hits a certain level. Not enough medical practitioners, infrastructure, cops/firemen to trace contacts, etc. what is happening in China is that the infected numbers are so high that even the communist party is unable to control it with the entire attention of the state brought to bear.

They have made the worst possible decision at all junctures - they did not know or hid the disease spreads through the air (Not someone coughing in your face but nCoV survives in aerosol for a while) - and remember how there were reports of suspected patients being asked to go home to quarantine themselves with their family? And how apartments are being welded shut? As the virus is airborne, that is the kiss of death to a lot of folks who live in those buildings...

The blog linked above mentioned that the novcor strain was engineered to target something called ACE2 receptors, which is primarily found in Chinese DNA.

[Arun.prabhu]

edit: ignore. Dubious maths all over.
https://www.naturalnews.com/2020-02-08- ... rcent.html

[UlanBatori]

It COULD be a "non-state actor" who knew what was available in some lab.. like Herr Doktor Blofeld of SPECTER. If you knew chinese economy was going to get hit with something this massive, you could have / will make a LOT of money... and u may have bought stock in all 3 was of countering it, whatever those are. Very innocent and untraceable.
But don't u think Eleven knows, one way or the other? That is the other side of the SPECTER bijnej plan. I think "C" there stands for "Chaos" and "R" for Revenge.

[UlanBatori]

AP: thx. Great lullaby to go to sleep.

Chinese propagandists {that would be their Royar Comlade Selvant flom Uran Batol} have been flooding the internet and media lately, claiming the coronavirus is “no worse than the seasonal flu.” So let’s take a look at that:
The CDC claims that the seasonal flu infects about 35.5 million people in the United States each year, leading to 16.5 million people going to a doctor. The CDC also claims this leads to 490,600 hospitalizations and 34,200 deaths.
Thus, according to the CDC, the “death rate” of the seasonal flu is 0.0963%, or roughly one person out of every 1,000 who are infected.
We now know, from China’s own press conference, that the coronavirus kills 17 out of every 100 people who are infected. That’s a 177 times higher mortality rate than the seasonal flu.
Taking the CDC’s claim that 35.5 million people get the flu each year, if that same number of people were to get infected with the coronavirus, what would the number of dead Americans be?
The answer, of course, is 17% of 35.5 million, over six million dead Americans.
And that’s using the seasonal flu numbers from the CDC.

Yeah, but with some 400 million cheen nicely locked up and the ennseevee creeping up the ventilation systems.... and a 17% survival rate before the hospital systems and ambulance systems get wiped out....

It's the Andromeda Strain/ Satan Bug in real life... closer to the Satan Bug in symptoms.

I think those apartments were being welded (sealed) shut because there was no one left alive inside. No time to sanitize inside. I don't see how you really fumigate inside one apt without killing everyone in the complex - and you don't want to put those people out of their apts to infect others. Tough call.

[UlanBatori]

If those Lancet numbers are combined with the epidemic profile, how many deaths are predicted? It it 25K 2 wks ago, it's crossed 100K by now, hain?

HOWEVER... the 17% death rate will either show up or be debunked soon: the cruise ships off Japan etc are not under cheen control. 5000 people, 61 cases reported. Will 10 die, or thousands more get infected?

[Arun.prabhu]

UBN,
I don’t agree with all the maths in there. The calculations are stupid, though they might have something on the mortality rates. But it gives us points to ponder and I do think infection and mortality rates are being significantly underreported.

Edit: an acquaintance at baen’s bar just pointed out even the mortality number is dubious maths.

AP: thx. Great lullaby to go to sleep.

Chinese propagandists {that would be their Royar Comlade Selvant flom Uran Batol} have been flooding the internet and media lately, claiming the coronavirus is “no worse than the seasonal flu.” So let’s take a look at that:
The CDC claims that the seasonal flu infects about 35.5 million people in the United States each year, leading to 16.5 million people going to a doctor. The CDC also claims this leads to 490,600 hospitalizations and 34,200 deaths.
Thus, according to the CDC, the “death rate” of the seasonal flu is 0.0963%, or roughly one person out of every 1,000 who are infected.
We now know, from China’s own press conference, that the coronavirus kills 17 out of every 100 people who are infected. That’s a 177 times higher mortality rate than the seasonal flu.
Taking the CDC’s claim that 35.5 million people get the flu each year, if that same number of people were to get infected with the coronavirus, what would the number of dead Americans be?
The answer, of course, is 17% of 35.5 million, over six million dead Americans.
And that’s using the seasonal flu numbers from the CDC.

Yeah, but with some 400 million cheen nicely locked up and the ennseevee creeping up the ventilation systems.... and a 17% survival rate before the hospital systems and ambulance systems get wiped out....

It's the Andromeda Strain/ Satan Bug in real life... closer to the Satan Bug in symptoms.

I think those apartments were being welded (sealed) shut because there was no one left alive inside. No time to sanitize inside. I don't see how you really fumigate inside one apt without killing everyone in the complex - and you don't want to put those people out of their apts to infect others. Tough call.

[Arun.prabhu]

OTOH, remember those tencent numbers claimed to be from jan 26 about 150000 patients and 25000 dead? Well, I read in a study that they expect the number to double every four or five days and you’d expect the number to be between 1.2 and 1.8 million today. And we have this:

https://twitter.com/DarrenPlymouth/stat ... 1117666305

With a caveat that this guy has an axe to grind against the CCP, he claims 1.5 million cases and 50000 dead.

[Arun.prabhu]

Maybe not. It doesn’t target all demographics equally. The infection rates would possibly be five times less for Caucasians, very low for middle easterners, almost negligible for Africans - very low ACE 2 receptor count - and in between for Indians . Mortality rates would also be vastly lower for different races as lung and kidney damage would be less and Incidence of septic shock would be Lower.

If those Lancet numbers are combined with the epidemic profile, how many deaths are predicted? It it 25K 2 wks ago, it's crossed 100K by now, hain?

HOWEVER... the 17% death rate will either show up or be debunked soon: the cruise ships off Japan etc are not under cheen control. 5000 people, 61 cases reported. Will 10 die, or thousands more get infected?

[Arun.prabhu]

The theory that nCoV originated from some animal in the Wuhan wet market is now in tatters:

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east- ... avirus-icu

Until jan 17-18, the party leaders (local) and health ministry bureaucrats insisted that only those who had been to the market could be diagnosed and having the disease. A visit to the market was mandatory. Also, an interesting tidbit on party politics. This is how they are going to shift the blame to the local leadership. The diagnosis criteria was too stringent because they did not know the disease could be transmitted between people.

Lots of other interesting information in the article including mortality rates of 4-5%.

[UlanBatori]

If you had fairly old (high 60s) retired relatives vijiting bache/grandkids in Singapore, would u advise them to consider returning home to desh? Seems like desh ban on incoming passengers from Malaysia and Singapore is now only days away. ennceevee is moving faster then Nippon Imperial Army of 1941.
Why can't they decide for themselves? Because Singapore has controlled news media. They say that everyone is talking about CV, but very little news.

[Arun.prabhu]

UBN,
Over at baen’s bar, there is a Singapore citizen, fwtopcat, who shares daily updates, which are comprehensive. Singapore is very open.

I’m paranoid on the subject and so my advise may not be realistic. Regular hand wash with soap (have alcohol based hand sanitiser for when soap isn’t available), a n99 mask, and safety goggles should provide decent protection.

OTOH, travelling by plane with unclean and potentially disease carrying armrests, and a closed environmental system when the disease is airborne not without risk.

If you had fairly old (high 60s) relatives vijiting bache/grandkids in Singapore, would u advise them to consider returning home to desh? Seems like desh ban on incoming passengers from Malaysia and Singapore is now only days away. ennceevee is moving faster then Nippon Imperial Army of 1941.

Why can't they decide for themselves? Because Singapore has controlled news media.

[UlanBatori]

Thanks. True that the airlines are fully taken over by all sorts of virii. Staying put seems best advice.

[Rony]

Doctor who exposed Sars cover-up is under house arrest in China, family confirms

The Chinese military surgeon who exposed the government’s cover-up of the the severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars) epidemic in 2003 has been under de facto house arrest since last year, according to his friends and family.

The fate of 88-year-old Dr Jiang Yanyong, a retired general in the People’s Liberation Army, has been brought into the spotlight after a whistleblower doctor, Li Wenliang, who exposed the coronavirus epidemic, died last Friday at the age of 34.

[Rony]

From Wuhan and surrounding cities, fascinating personal accounts from patients, doctors and nurses. Some dying patients intentionally spitting at medical workers and exposing them to virus

From WeChat. Use google translation

More than Wuhan: 16 cities in Hubei epidemic area

Jingli frontline medical staff Xiao Li told the Caijing reporter that the official report previously said: "preventable and controllable", "no sign passed from person to person", they did not prepare materials in time, and even did not have the necessary protection in the initial stage of receiving patients. Suddenly, a large number of fever patients poured in, and the material gap widened rapidly. Xiao Li's hospital was looking for N95 masks, goggles, and even paid for protective equipment at a high price.

Most people are not afraid of disaster, but of the unknown, but of the unknown. Many doctors don't know when they can have sufficient protective supplies, more patients don't know if they are sick, the citizens don't know if the cases are concealed, when the traffic "cities are closed," and the people don't know when the government will have new ones. Large-scale operations. As for the new type of coronavirus pneumonia that everyone is at risk, many people in the locality are unknown the source of the disease, the specific drugs are unknown, and the mode of transmission is unknown.

"I see the evil of humanity today," said the nurse.

She saw a family of four coming to see a doctor from Wuhan. They first went to a hospital in Wuhan, but the hospital said that they had no fever and were confiscated, and let them isolate and observe at home. However, the family did not listen to the doctor. They first went to another hospital in Jingzhou for an examination, confirmed the diagnosis, and notified to be isolated. As a result, the family ran away again.

"He came to our hospital again for treatment, and when he arrived, he made a lot of noise and asked the hospital to arrange for treatment immediately." But according to regulations, after the diagnosis is confirmed in other hospitals, the diagnosis needs to be reconfirmed through the Health Planning Commission. "So they started making all kinds of noise, and they didn't listen to it."

"I don't know how many people are infected along the way," Tian Mengqiu said. "I don't understand why they do it. I sometimes even suspect they are malicious, but I tell myself not to think so."

Another patient, 22, came for an examination, which was highly suspect. As a result, he ran away secretly before the test results came out. Later, the hospital arranged for security to find it, but found that the ID card was fake and the phone was not answered.

Some medical staff interviewed by Caijing said that some infected patients have a very bad mentality. "Some people know that they don't wear masks because they know they are ill, and they would like others to follow them. Some people even forced the nurses to spray on the nurses," Tian Mengqiu said.

A doctor at the People's Hospital of Wuhan University expressed the same confusion, saying, "Some patients will tear your mask off and spit at you. They say," Don't think about it without medicine. "

"I now go to work almost every day. In the morning, I dragged ultraviolet lamps in one ward and one ward for disinfection. I bought a lot of towels. Everyone took a bath and disinfected it. Every day, I took off my work clothes and disinfected it the next day." Equipment is in short supply, but masks are distributed to patients and family members every day. As a result, people come around every morning to ask for masks.

You know, except for frontline personnel who have protective clothing, goggles, and N95 masks, everyone else just works with ordinary medical masks. Including Dean.

Another nurse said that one day she went to the bathroom and came back to find that nearly a hundred masks in the drawer had been stolen.

When supplies were not enough, colleagues took out the swimming goggles at home as goggles, shower hats as headgears, and document bags as headgears. Tian Mengqiu said with a smile that his colleagues have become "inventors."

It was mentioned that the median time from onset to admission was 9 days; some patients had only about 7 days from the onset of dyspnea; the patients were concentrated in the age of 40-60 years, and no children were present; critical illness accounted for 15%, Many elderly people, those with underlying diseases, and obese people.

However, some hospitals found that the actual screening situation is different from the guidelines. The guidelines say that the frequent age of patients is 40-60 years old. "But the result of our investigation one day was-more common in 20-40 years old. Some people did not have a cough until their death. Yes, I don't have a fever, "said the person.

Will these dead but undiagnosed cases be recorded as confirmed deaths? No one responded.

On the night of New Year's Eve on January 24, Xiao Yi's father began to have a high fever. He hurriedly checked the symptoms online, but couldn't judge the condition by various information listed on the Internet. He took his father to the nearest Honghu Second Hospital for treatment overnight. .

The Second Hospital of Honghu City is a hospital on the official list of fever clinics announced by Jingzhou. It belongs to the cooperative hospital of Honghu City and Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University. But because of New Year's Eve, the hospital's fever clinic has been closed, and only physicians are on duty. The doctor on duty only has a surgical mask, no goggles and protective clothing.

Xiao Yi told the reporter of Caijing that his father had done X-rays and blood tests. It was about 8 pm, but the doctor who had just seen the doctor said he was off work. Xiao Yi could only take his father to the inpatient department to find a doctor. There were a dozen people in the clinic, both adults and children.

After reading the results, the doctor said, "We can't check for new pneumonia here, so we need to go to the Municipal People's Hospital." Then he prescribed some flu medicines to let Xiao Yi take his father home for observation.

"The official information is really unsatisfactory. It lists a hospital that cannot be inspected. What is it? The hospital has no basic protective measures, so what is it?" He said.

After a pause, Xiao Yi added to the Caijing reporter, "I hope netizens will not scold those fleeing Wuhan people and Hubei people. If you are here, you will also make this choice, just to live."

[Arun.prabhu]

I would weigh the pros and cons. The count in Singapore is low yet that the risk is minimal though non-zero. Wearing full hand shirts, a mask, ample use of sanitiser and having safety or swimming goggles handy should reduce the risk some. WAsh clothes and a bath first thing on reaching home, keep windows open for good ventilation and don’t go anywhere crowded for a fortnight after reaching home should protect them and everyone else.

Thanks. True that the airlines are fully taken over by all sorts of virii. Staying put seems best advice.

[chola]

^^^ Everyone is thinking the same. Stay put.

The chinis are staying home and the rest of the world is staying away from Cheen.

They were a trading nation. lol

https://www.wired.co.uk/article/china-f ... oronavirus

Only airlines can show the huge scale of China's coronavirus crisis

China's biggest airports are deserted. Each cancelled flight tells the story of a country on the brink of shutdown


By WILL BEDINGFIELD

Chinese New Year is the largest annual period of transport stress in the world. Beginning fifteen days ahead of Lunar New Year and lasting for a total of 40, Chinese travellers made around three billion trips during 2018’s rush. To ring in the year of Rat on January 25, airports expected a travel surge between January 10 and February 18, as Chinese people living abroad return home to see their families. They were wrong.

New figures show that flight numbers have crashed from 17,181 flights on January 22, the day before the announcement of Wuhan’s coronavirus quarantine, to just 5,095 by February 4, figures from flight tracking company FlightRadar24 show.

This has been no ordinary beginning to the year. Since the announcement of the coronavirus outbreak on 31 December 2019, over 50 million people have been quarantined in more than 15 cities. This is a serious blow to China’s economy – in 2018 alone, 62.9 million tourists visited China, and tourism makes up about 11 per cent of the country’s economic growth. In one week last month, the country’s second largest operator, China Eastern Airlines, saw its value fall by 13 per cent.

FlightRadar24 figures show internal and external Chinese flights dropping by more than two thirds. Major airports have been abandoned as commuters avoid public spaces.

Ian Petchenik, a spokesperson at FlightRadar24, says that the reduction between January 21 and 28 was mainly down to restrictions in international flights. After January 28, a massive fall crippled domestic travel as well.

...

[madhu]

Chinese inability to control this epidemic is becoming more mysterious by the day.

I don’t think so. I think Chinese are doing there best in controlling the virus. Infact I will post a graph by evening which shows that they are doing well.

Maybe not. It doesn’t target all demographics equally. The infection rates would possibly be five times less for Caucasians, very low for middle easterners, almost negligible for Africans - very low ACE 2 receptor count - and in between for Indians . Mortality rates would also be vastly lower for different races as lung and kidney damage would be less and Incidence of septic shock would be Lower.

Can you please provide me a paper(not news paper report) on this. I do know that mortality rate of adult mails are higher then women or kids. But there is a reason for this. It is estimated that 40% of adult mail in china smokes so they are susaptable to this virus.

HOWEVER... the 17% death rate will either show up or be debunked soon: the cruise ships off Japan etc are not under cheen control. 5000 people, 61 cases reported. Will 10 die, or thousands more get infected?

You don’t have to wait till people in cruise ships to die to calculated it. We can do it with what we know now.
As on today (12.30 IST) infected people is 40,164 and death is 910-2(1 Philippines and 1 Hong Kong) that means the fatality rate due to virus is 910/40164 ~ 2.26%
Now for the rest of the world infected people 40,540 – (40,164 mainland) = 376 people. And death is only 2 that means the fatality rate due to virus is 2/376 ~ 0.6%
Now note that for china infected people may not be reporting due to various reasons like less test kits, citizens lockedup, citizens not willing to go to hospitals but death will be accounted thus the fatality rate due to virus is more in mainland.
Regarding the INTELWAVE plot, I followed the windy.com yesterday at regular interval and did not find the same. S02 is almost same.

[Arun.prabhu]

Had posted this in the previous page:

https://www.researchgate.net/publicatio ... el_finding

Study that mapped ACE2 genotype and expression globally. Little or no ACE 2 receptor equals little or no pathways to infection equals mild or no disease.

Mortality from nCoV is not just from compromised lungs. The virus attacks heart, kidneys, stomach and immune system. If your immune system is weak, your white blood cell apparently drops and you die of other infections or nCoV runs wild and possibly kills you. If your immune system is strong, you get a major inflammation and your lungs may fill up with fluid and you drown. If it infects your heart, you may die of cardiac arrest - people collapsed dead on the street, remember? If your renal function is already compromised, you die of kidney failure. Worst cases for lungs need heart lung machines to ensure sufficient oxygen gets to your cells. There aren’t many of those machines in hospitals and they are all expensive. Kidney failure would need dialysis. Compromised heart would need a heart replacement or significant lifestyle changes assuming one survives the infection without a cardiac arrest. And because the antibodies produced to fight the infection are short lived, it is possible to get the disease a second time, which means with your internal organs already having taken a beating, the odds of survival go down for repeat infections.

Maybe not. It doesn’t target all demographics equally. The infection rates would possibly be five times less for Caucasians, very low for middle easterners, almost negligible for Africans - very low ACE 2 receptor count - and in between for Indians . Mortality rates would also be vastly lower for different races as lung and kidney damage would be less and Incidence of septic shock would be Lower.

Can you please provide me a paper(not news paper report) on this. I do know that mortality rate of adult mails are higher then women or kids. But there is a reason for this. It is estimated that 40% of adult mail in china smokes so they are susaptable to this virus.

[Vadivel]

From Wuhan and surrounding cities, fascinating personal accounts from patients, doctors and nurses. Some dying patients intentionally spitting at medical workers and exposing them to virus

From WeChat. Use google translation

More than Wuhan: 16 cities in Hubei epidemic area

It was mentioned that the median time from onset to admission was 9 days; some patients had only about 7 days from the onset of dyspnea; the patients were concentrated in the age of 40-60 years, and no children were present; critical illness accounted for 15%, Many elderly people, those with underlying diseases, and obese people.

However, some hospitals found that the actual screening situation is different from the guidelines. The guidelines say that the frequent age of patients is 40-60 years old. "But the result of our investigation one day was-more common in 20-40 years old. Some people did not have a cough until their death. Yes, I don't have a fever, "said the person.

Will these dead but undiagnosed cases be recorded as confirmed deaths? No one responded.

[CT Hat ON]
Is this some kind of culling of the old people who are vulnerable to infection? Rebalance the average age of china by CCCP. Especially the ACE2 receptor being high for the han population.
[CT Hat OFF]

[nvishal]

In the wild, rains do a good job of washing away diseases. In Chernobyl, seasonal rains washed away most of the radiation from the soil in the first 10 years. Rain will not arrive in China till July. Same with India so be aware.

BTW, of the 908 who died in China, only 37 have died outside Wuhan. It indicates that the chinese have effectively contained it. Those dying in Wuhan probably arent getting medical help. That province has 29631 officially confirmed cases. Forget individual quarantined rooms, I doubt they can provide that many hospital beds.

[durairaaj]

Chinese Canadian bio-weapon expert sent the corono virus to China This is the missing link.
My Theory:
The virus was sent by CIA expecting the chinese-canadian virology expert to send it to China and catch her in the act. As expected she sent it to China and got expelled from the lab, without the knowledge that it attacks only Chinese racial people. CIA sent only highly spreadable flu virus. (This modus operandi is similar to their other operations (i) selling oil pipeline valves to Russia and (ii) stuxnet infected Siemens motor controllers to Iran). Little did they expect or as they expected the chinese weaponised the CoV to nCoV, using Crispr gene editing tool, with partial HIV strain that destroys the immune system of the host.

Chinese developed a formidable bio-weapon, without knowling that it attacks only themselves, and released it accidentally or tested on some unsuspecting compatriot. Thus, they unleashed a demon that they could not control anymore. In one of the first news releases, Mr. eleven claimed that they have released a demon and the chinese have to come together to control it.

Now knowing that the nCoV attacks any chinese origin person, Mr. eleven is safely secreted to an underground bunker similar to the transfer of US presidents in Hollywood movies.

One thing thats still not explained is why some of the patients are responding to anti HIV treatment and others are not.

[kit]

It COULD be a "non-state actor" who knew what was available in some lab.. like Herr Doktor Blofeld of SPECTER. If you knew chinese economy was going to get hit with something this massive, you could have / will make a LOT of money... and u may have bought stock in all 3 was of countering it, whatever those are. Very innocent and untraceable.
But don't u think Eleven knows, one way or the other? That is the other side of the SPECTER bijnej plan. I think "C" there stands for "Chaos" and "R" for Revenge.

Everything and anything is a possibility , i am just worried its taking too long for a country with resources like China to contain it, what if something like that happens in India tomorrow. A situation like this , even if not true is an crisis situation and a contigency plan need to be in place. Call it bioweapon or bioterrorism or whatever , how will that be dealt with ? Are we prepared for it ?

It is chilling to say the least, in some ways its a good thing a lot of news is not coming out of china, a global hysteria could very well develop.

This situation China is not to be seen as an enemy.

[Arun.prabhu]

They are apparently using more than a hundred body bags everyday in each hospital in Guangzhou as well <— information that slipped past the great firewall. I asked the guy who quoted for a cite but apparently contact is sporadic as the censors are going after the leakers. They are losing folks and hiding the numbers.

You’d expect about 200000 deaths in a city of that size per year, but there are 16 large hospitals that I think would be designated for nCoV care. Even assuming 75 bags per hospital, the number does not tally.

In the wild, rains do a good job of washing away diseases. In Chernobyl, seasonal rains washed away most of the radiation from the soil in the first 10 years. Rain will not arrive in China till July. Same with India so be aware.

BTW, of the 908 who died in China, only 37 have died outside Wuhan. It indicates that the chinese have effectively contained it. Those dying in Wuhan probably arent getting medical help. That province has 29631 officially confirmed cases. Forget individual quarantined rooms, I doubt they can provide that many hospital beds.

[UlanBatori]

A terrible idea: Plot the total # of deaths due to the various "RS" attacks (MERS, SARS, nCVRS.). any others? Also those with just H*N* names. As function of time.

If these were just natural things, even with evolved mutation, don't you think the effect of advancing medical knowledge, production/stocks of masks, preventive vaccines if any, community knowledge of sanitation procedures, speed of diagnosis, and speed of containment measures, would all contribute to squelch the outbreaks, so that total number of infections, and deaths, should both come down with time?
IOW, natural evolution of the virus' own pakistaniyat, should be outpaced by the might of hyooman defense, hain?

But I don't think that is what the data will show. ... So some sort of intelligence that KNOWS our preventive/curative options, is hitting with each new attacks. Implications left to the level of CT-ness in you.

[madhu]

Chinese inability to control this epidemic is becoming more mysterious by the day.

I don’t think so. I think Chinese are doing there best in controlling the virus. Infact I will post a graph by evening which shows that they are doing well.

.[/quote]

Chines have been controlling the virus very well. They are effective in bringing it down. This is evident from the graph, any value greater than 1 indicates exponential growth. However we can see currently it is just under 1 and also trend line showing down.



Nowcast from the model to actual numbers



Is it possible to get statistics of travel of people in and out of Wuhan, where they have gone? It can be used to see the spread of virus. If people know any plz share it. Need to do some work. There is some details in the paper i shared before but nor enough. Its just a plot.

[UlanBatori]

^^That's what I mean. Response, once they recognize that there is a problem, is as fast and thorough as a 1st-Dunia totalitarian state with a fairly literate and very obedient population, with near-infinite resources, can do. Only problem they have is that they do not supply clear info to their people, only orders {Natural inclination of all Baboon if they have the power and don't get their asses kicked}. So they avoid panic/stampede/riots but also hinder people from figuring out best response and thus multiplying the response effort. Their approach is first to suppress info - then figure out what to release, and there is massive confusion/leakage in that process, that contributes to panic.

So, why aren't successive outbreaks squelched much faster than preceding ones? This is what derailed the UBCN BS evaluation. We figured that it was a bad virus, but once the Chinese govt had figured out where it was, we thought it would be exponential decay and extinction of nCOV. They would have kicked in all their experience, and the population would have taken out their stock of masks. Even I have masks still in my saddle bag (aka bookbag) from when the images first started coming out, of East Asians wearing masks (probably H1N1). {Came in handy when vijiting Dilli and airport tried to sell us masks at INR 4000 each.}

Instead there is geometric progression of spread in infection - and high mortality rates. Something is ****VERY WRONG****. the virus has smarter Jarnails than the PLA does! IOW, this IS biological warfare. Who exactly is attacking cheen, is not known.

Corollary: Surat plague was very crude - and quickly caught as a bio attack, but Kozhikode Nipah was a swift and hard hit... BUT very limited. Not quite known what caused it: same FUBAR about fruit bats, well-water etc. Yielded enough data, unfortunately, for something to follow??

[UlanBatori]

Arrteedotcom thinking along similar lines, thought not with the CT:

Swine flu has claimed over half a million lives since it crossed over to humans in 2009;
The West Africa ebola outbreak killed more than 11,000 people, and
SARS,
Bird flu and
Mad Cow Disease also racked up hundreds of deaths and proved to be major causes for concern around the world.
HIV/AIDS (25 million killed) 1981-2012
HIV/AIDS was first identified in the Democratic Republic of the Congo all the way back in 1976. The outbreak began in earnest in the early 80s, and it has remained one of the biggest scourges humanity has faced in recent decades. Nearly 25 million of the 65 million people infected during the pandemic died by the early 2000s, with 2.8 million people dying of AIDS in 2005 alone.
Asian Flu (2 million killed) 1956 - 1958
he Asian Flu virus originated in China in early 1956 before eventually spreading to Singapore, Hong Kong and the US. Though there are varying statistics for the exact death toll, World Health Organization data indicates that it claimed the lives of some two million people during its two-year rampage. Nearly 70,000 of the victims were in the US alone.
Spanish Flu (20 - 50 million killed) 1918
Arguably one of the worst pandemics to ever hit humanity, the Spanish Flu outbreak of 1918 spread from Asia, to Europe and North America, and even reached the Arctic and several remote Pacific islands.
Over 500,000,000 people were infected and between 20-50,000,000 people died before the pandemic ended in December 1920. Some researchers have estimated that the disease actually claimed 100,000,000 lives, which was roughly three to five percent of the Earth's population at the time.
What separated the flu from other influenza outbreaks was its unusual mortality pattern, which saw it strike down completely healthy young adults.
Black Death (75 - 200 million killed) 1346 - 1353
Perhaps the best known pandemic to ever hit humanity, the Black Death, racked up an obscenely high death toll of between 75 and 200 million people. The plague completely devastated Europe, Africa and Asia, jumping continents via fleas living on rats that often travelled on merchant ships. In the seven years the Black Death lasted it killed between 30 and 60 percent of Europe's population.
Plague of Justinian (25 million killed) 541 - 542
A lesser-known pandemic, the plague of Justinian, afflicted the Byzantine Empire and is estimated to have cut Europe's population in half in just 12 months. Roughly 40 percent of Constantinople's population were killed and, at its height, the pandemic is believed to have killed an estimated 5,000 people per day.

[vishvak]

If these were just natural things, even with evolved mutation

.. waiting for narrative to emerge for covering up excess bio lab capacities. The virus though don't recognise that.

[TKiran]

Twitter is saying, Eleven came out to give a statement that we will win this war ( or something of similar meaning)

Does that mean that they contained the disease to Wuhan and they are rapidly containing the disease elsewhere to a very less number, and now all izz well and stock market rising???

[UlanBatori]

U don't expect Elevenji to do a Dilbullah Pajama Shiver (DPS), hain? He HAS to say that. Apple iPhone production line in cheen is operating (re-opened) at 10% staff level. Is **THAT** catastrophe or what?

[SriKumar]

Twitter is saying, Eleven came out to give a statement that we will win this war ( or something of similar meaning)

Sorry for the non-value-add comment but do you expect to believe anything that he says? He has claimed Arunachal Pradesh as China, reversing a position held by China a decade ago. And what does 'win the war' mean anyway. Should, God forbid, deaths run into tens or hundreds of thousands, and their economy gets back on track next year, he will still count it as 'we won the war'. His main job is to fix the virus epidemic and clamp down on information from getting out, in equal measure. He is doing both since the past 2 months. His only concern is to get the economy back on track and present a positive picture by any means necessary. The official numbers of sick and dead in China as put out by Xi only represent a lower limit, IMO. IMHO, They might be 2X, 5X or 10X higher.

Un-related:
I read in news that the Lunar Holiday was extended by 10 days by the Govt due to the virus attack, and lifted only yesterday. This is same as a govt-ordered work quarantine, by another name. So the pictures of empty streets are very likely real. Work had stopped by govt order for the past 10-12 days, probably in all of China (or wherever the order was applicable).

I have difficulty believing any figure that comes out from a Chinese source. for years now. BRF even coined a term for it- Shanghai statistics, for the economic data they put out year after year. For this epidemic, if the figures are from official source, I fully expect they are understated. If un-official sources and have a negative message, one wonders how it got past their multiple layers of censorship, though it appears that some stray video or web-post could make it out once in a while. The one objective measure of the disruption caused recently and in near future (even if not exact) I can think of are their exports- like container-ship traffic leaving their ports in the last 2 weeks- is that still at the old tempo or has it reduced. Oil price is another. MAybe some stock prices- but then you dont know if that is being manipulated. Another indicator (for the US anyway where IMHO 90+ % consumer goods come from CHina) is the cost of goods in their Walmart/Target/BestBuy/Electronics/Furniture Stores. If there is any serious disruption of this pipeline of goods from China, prices will rise in a tangible manner (or there will be shortages), because of the huge volume of goods coming out of China.

[saip]

The count on the cruise ship doubled to 130 or so. - CNN

[SriKumar]

^^^ The crew on the cruise ship stuck in Japan is Indian. There's a video out there of them appealing to Modi to get them out of there.

Warning- NDTV link:
https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/coronav ... -topscroll

[ldev]

The drop in China air traffic, domestic and international. Huge impact