Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

sooraj · Post by **sooraj** » 28 Feb 2020 09:41

New York is moving forward with making its own test for the coronavirus, after the CDC's test has failed across the country

sooraj · Post by **sooraj** » 28 Feb 2020 09:54

sooraj wrote:New York is moving forward with making its own test for the coronavirus, after the CDC's test has failed across the country

“Labs in New York City and New York state found problems with the reconfigured [CDC] test, and have rejected the option to use it altogether.”

Atmavik · Post by **Atmavik** » 28 Feb 2020 10:28

new cases in chinas "Forbidden City" rise as migrant workers are returning to work. stricter rules to come.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_h0davD66Ko

i have been watching this CNBC piece from their Beijing correspondent for a few weeks now and vehicle traffic(background) is heaviest i have seen in a month. looks like china is slowly returning to work.

Gyan · Post by **Gyan** » 28 Feb 2020 10:53

It's possible that Death/Recovery ratio is showing a high figure of 8% because mild cases may not be Hospitalized or even enumerated. Mild cases in infectious diseases are generally under reported. Therefore anecdotal data or on ground experience of doctors may be more relevant at this early stage.

I continue to be amazed that there is NO recommended treatment protocol being circulated. WHO really needs to get into the act.

sooraj · Post by **sooraj** » 28 Feb 2020 11:38

Man tests positive for coronavirus in Mexico, with confirmation pending second test.

sooraj · Post by **sooraj** » 28 Feb 2020 11:38

First case of coronavirus in Belarus

sooraj · Post by **sooraj** » 28 Feb 2020 11:39

New Zealand confirms its first case of coronavirus

g.sarkar · Post by **g.sarkar** » 28 Feb 2020 11:50

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... e-updates/
Fears grow of a coronavirus pandemic as markets stumble again; Japan shuts schools
By Adam Taylor, Rick Noack, Miriam Berger and Michael Brice-Saddler, Feb. 27, 2020
U.S. markets fell sharply Thursday after the first coronavirus case in the United States that could not be linked to foreign travel was confirmed.
California is calling the case, first reported by The Washington Post, its first instance of community transmission. The hospital is monitoring the health of scores of staff members who may have come in contact with the patient.
The rapid spread of the novel coronavirus also raised the specter of a global pandemic as governments ramped up their emergency responses and international financial markets slumped again Thursday, despite signs that the outbreak may be easing in China.
Japan told schools to close through the spring break, which for most students typically means early April. Australia’s leader warned that a pandemic was inevitable, and an Iranian lawmaker said he has tested positive for the virus. New infections and deaths from covid-19, as the disease caused by the coronavirus is known, emerged from the Middle East to Europe and South Korea. The State Department, meanwhile, issued a Level 3 travel advisory for South Korea, portending extended economic disruption in Asia.
.....
Gautam

sooraj · Post by **sooraj** » 28 Feb 2020 13:10

sooraj wrote:New Zealand confirms its first case of coronavirus

New Zealand's 1st #coronavirus case is said to be a woman in her 60s who had recently travelled from Iran to Auckland via Bali. Any passengers who took the Emirates plane from Bali to Auckland are urged to contact authorities if they were concerned.

sooraj · Post by **sooraj** » 28 Feb 2020 13:11

#Iran has cancelled Friday prayers for the first time in 40 years because of the #coronavirus.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 28 Feb 2020 18:28

Sad news from home: Entire Mongolian regime confined to stables

The Mongolian president and his entire delegation have been put under 14-day quarantine after making a state visit to coronavirus-stricken China. Khaltmaagiin Battulga visited China to meet President Xi Jinping amid an outbreak of the deadly infection. The emergency apparently was not considered too big a risk to cancel the planned high-profile event, but Mongolian authorities have decided their leader doesn't get a pass on safety rules. After returning to Ulaanbaatar on Thursday, he and all of the officials who accompanied him were placed in two-week isolation, the news agency Montsame reported. They were also tested for the coronavirus, the report said, without stating whether any of the tests were positive. Among the officials included in the quarantine are Mongolia's foreign minister, its ambassador to China, the national emergencies chief, the president's chief of staff, and a foreign policy adviser. They will be spending the next two weeks at a resort in an isolated mountainous area of Mongolia, while President Battulga will be accommodated at a clinic in the capital.

China was hit hard by the novel coronavirus with almost 79,000 cases confirmed so far. The death toll in the mainland part of the country reached 2,788 on Thursday with 28 new fatalities since Wednesday. The spread of infection however seems to be slowing down, with the number of new reported cases lowest since late January.

To paraphrase my dear friend Orrbhind (aka The Bong), a Bhorld-renowned authority on all things and a textbook author on some:

Bhot UBCN reports dhay bhefore yesterdhay, the Bhorld reports dhay abhter tomorrow

amitverma · Post by **amitverma** » 28 Feb 2020 19:31

South Korea once again reported 315 new cases.
Total now is 2337 with 13 people dead due to coronavirus.

chola · Post by **chola** » 28 Feb 2020 19:36

amitverma wrote:South Korea once again reported 315 new cases.
Total now is 2337 with 13 people dead due to coronavirus.

Outside of China and Iran the death rate is pretty low. 13 out of 2337 is 0.5%

sooraj · Post by **sooraj** » 28 Feb 2020 21:03

Kerala Health Minister: One person from Malaysia came to Ernakulam airport. He had symptoms like sore throat, fever. We can't say that it is coronavirus but we've kept the person in the isolation ward. Samples were sent to Virology Institute. I think his result will come tomorrow

Kerala Health Minister: A total of 3,500 people were in quarantine. When they completed 28 days of quarantine, we released them from home quarantine. Now 135 people are under home quarantine. #coronavirus

sooraj · Post by **sooraj** » 28 Feb 2020 21:44

World Health Organization (WHO) upgrades global risk of #coronavirus spread to 'very high'

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 28 Feb 2020 23:20

China reports new Coronavirus cases .....

SHANGHAI/BEIJING (Reuters) - China reported 433 new cases of coronavirus infections on Feb. 26, the National Health Commission said on Thursday, up from 406 a day earlier, with a cluster of new cases in Beijing raising concerns about the management of employees returning to work.

The total number of confirmed cases on mainland China has now reached 78,497, the Commission said, though the number of new deaths on Wednesday stood at 29, the lowest daily rate since Jan. 28.

The outbreak has now killed a total of 2,744 people in China.

Hubei, the central Chinese province at the epicenter of the outbreak, reported 409 new cases and 26 deaths on Wednesday. Beijing and the provinces of Heilongjiang and Henan were the locations of the other three fatalities.

The number of new cases outside Hubei stood at 24, up from 5 on the previous day and reversing five days of declines. Ten of those were in Beijing.

A statement published by the Comission on Thursday, citing a meeting held the previous day, said that the situation in Hubei province and Wuhan is "still complex and serious", and added that the risk of a rebound in infection in other regions should not be overlooked.

Also, some coronavirus patients discharged from hospitals after recovery have been readmitted after testing positive again, health authorities said recently.

A health official in southern Guangdong province told state media on Wednesday that 14% of patients discharged from hospital experienced a resurgence of the virus, although they had not infected any others they had been in close contact with.

The number of new confirmed coronavirus cases in Beijing on Feb. 26 had jumped to 10 from zero the previous day. Pang Xinghuo, deputy head of Beijing Center of Disease Control, told a news briefing on Thursday that it was a cluster case.

The new cases all stemmed from a property management agency in Beijing's Chaoyang district, and had either been working in the same office or sharing the same dormitory, Pang said.

The case showed that companies were not putting in place adequate monitoring of staff during their 14-day quarantine period, Chen Bei, deputy secretary general of Beijing city government, told a briefing later on Thursday.

It has also highlighted the risks of crowded dormitories and poorly ventilated basement housing often used for some workers.

Chen said no more than six people should share basement dormitories, which should have windows. She also reiterated that people returning to Beijing must undergo a 14-day self quarantine before they're allowed to go back to work.

Chinese authorities are also turning their attention to potential sources of infection from abroad, as the number of new cases outside China now exceed those domestically.

The Shanghai government said it is trying to identify anyone who came into contact with a coronavirus patient who arrived in the city from Iran, another coronavirus hotspot.

More than 40 countries and regions outside mainland China have reported infections. On Wednesday, cases were detected for the first time in Brazil, Pakistan, Norway, Greece, Romania and Algeria. The coronavirus has infected more than 80,000 people and killed nearly 2,800, the majority in China.

A senior medical advisor in the Chinese government who won fame for combating the SARS epidemic in 2003 on Thursday said the original source of the coronavirus remains unclear.

"Though the virus was first discovered in China, it may not have originated from China," said Zhong Nanshan, an 83-year-old epidemiologist.

Zhong said he believes there are other wildlife species apart from the pangolin, which is suspected as the original source emerging from a seafood market in Wuhan that also sold wild animals, that carry coronavirus.

Zhong said China would present a video report to the European Respiratory Society to share China's experience in addressing the virus outbreak.

He again repeated an earlier forecast that the coronavirus outbreak in China will be contained by end-April after peaking in mid-to-late-February.

(Reporting by David Stanway in Shanghai and Zhang Lusha, Min Zhang, Wu Huizhong and Gao Liangping in Beijing; writing by Emily Chow and Dominique Patton; Editing by Himani Sarkar, Simon Cameron-Moore, William Maclean)

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 28 Feb 2020 23:42

Rockstar is great. He has advised to contain the virus. We should thank the sage for the enlightenment. Where's Nobel Committee?

Raghuram Rajan’s advice as global growth falters over coronavirus fears

sreerudra · Post by **sreerudra** » 29 Feb 2020 00:37

https://www.bostonherald.com/2020/02/26 ... achusetts/

This is spreading very fast and no one is discussing it *officially* anything

sreerudra · Post by **sreerudra** » 29 Feb 2020 00:40

sooraj wrote:New York Post
@nypost
· 26m
Pope Francis sick a day after supporting coronavirus sufferers

Well, what you sow is what you get then.

sreerudra · Post by **sreerudra** » 29 Feb 2020 00:44

https://www.businessinsider.com/china-w ... ted-2020-1

here is the confirmed updates..

Krita · Post by **Krita** » 29 Feb 2020 00:48

chetak wrote:
Rockstar is great. He has advised to contain the virus. We should thank the sage for the enlightenment. Where's Nobel Committee?

Raghuram Rajan’s advice as global growth falters over coronavirus fears

No Shit Sherlock, he will soon join the ranks of Diggy Raja, Hua to Hua Pitroda and Mani shankar.

Vamsee · Post by **Vamsee** » 29 Feb 2020 00:55

@BNODesk

NEW: Google says one of its employees at the office in Zurich has tested positive for coronavirus; his or her last visit to the office was before developing symptoms

Vamsee · Post by **Vamsee** » 29 Feb 2020 01:15

@spectatorindex
JUST IN: Coronavirus cases at military base north of Paris

BREAKING: UK reports its first case of human-to-human transmission of coronavirus

====================

Probably a little too early but if this doesn't get contained, we may enter an uncharted territory. Currently it is killing mostly the elderly but economic impact will be felt by all.

Gerard · Post by **Gerard** » 29 Feb 2020 02:53

12 Coronavirus myths busted by science

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 29 Feb 2020 03:43

sooraj wrote:
sooraj wrote:New York is moving forward with making its own test for the coronavirus, after the CDC's test has failed across the country
“Labs in New York City and New York state found problems with the reconfigured [CDC] test, and have rejected the option to use it altogether.”

A Short comment: (For scientists )

Sensitivity of PCR type tests kits (US and other ones) is quite low (in the range of about 75% according to latest data) - Scientifically this means that a negative result may not be that reliable (it misses quite a lot).

According to latest data, CT scan, when probably done was about 97% sensitive (much more certain). This is based on Chinese data. (Recent JAMA article). They are suggesting CT testing which is faster here.
(This was also one of the main reason for sudden jump in statistics in one day - when they started including CT data)

In US, some of the PCR tests are taking too long, (Last one in California - took couple of days before they got result) and it has missed even in small sample. (In US total number of this kind of testing was done for about 450 cases only).

Vamsee · Post by **Vamsee** » 29 Feb 2020 04:50

BREAKING: California reports 2nd case of coronavirus with no recent travel history, no known links to previous cases - WaPo

==============
Santa Clara County

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 29 Feb 2020 05:58

^^^^^(Santa Clara County) : The Palo Alto school district just sent out notices that two students have a parent who was exposed. I wonder if this press conference is about that parent.. Press conference just going on...

g.sarkar · Post by **g.sarkar** » 29 Feb 2020 06:13

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/28/health/c ... index.html
New coronavirus case in California is thought to be second through community transmission
By Christina Maxouris, Dakin Andone and Jamie Gumbrecht, CNN
Fri February 28, 2020
An older adult woman from California might be the second case of community transmission of the novel coronavirus, health officials in Santa Clara County said Friday.
The patient is a resident of the county, the health department said in a news release.
"This new case indicates that there is evidence of community transmission, but the extent is still not clear," said Dr. Sara Cody, director of the county's public health department. "I understand this may be concerning to hear, but this is what we have been preparing for. Now we need to start taking additional actions to slow down the spread of the disease."
The woman had been hospitalized for a respiratory illness and a doctor requested a coronavirus test. The case is not related to two others in the county, officials said. The county's health department has said it would give more details at a news conference scheduled for 4 p.m. PT (7 p.m. ET).
The CDC this week updated its testing criteria after a Solano County, California, woman wasn't tested for days after being hospitalized. The patient is in serious condition and has been intubated, according to California Rep. John Garamendi.
The Solano County case has puzzled health officials, who say they have not been able to trace where she contracted the virus. The patient didn't have any relevant travel history, exposure to another known patient and wasn't one of the evacuees repatriated from China, officials said.
"This does appear to be a person who genuinely did acquire their illness in the community," Solano County Public Health Officer Dr. Bela Matyas said in a news conference Thursday. Solano County and Santa Clara County are about 90 miles apart.
The Solano County patient, who is being treated at UC Davis Medical Center, could be the first instance of "community spread" of the virus, the CDC said Wednesday. The patient was transferred to UC Davis from a Northern California hospital last Wednesday but wasn't tested until Sunday, after doctors at UC Davis persisted in the request. Both hospitals said there was no initial testing administered because the patient didn't fit existing CDC criteria for coronavirus.
.....
Gautam

SriKumar · Post by **SriKumar** » 29 Feb 2020 06:24

g.sarkar wrote:https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/28/health/c ... index.html
New coronavirus case in California is thought to be second through community transmission
By Christina Maxouris, Dakin Andone and Jamie Gumbrecht, CNN
Fri February 28, 2020
An older adult woman from California might be the second case of community transmission of the novel coronavirus, health officials in Santa Clara County said Friday.
The patient was transferred to UC Davis from a Northern California hospital last Wednesday but wasn't tested until Sunday, after doctors at UC Davis persisted in the request. Both hospitals said there was no initial testing administered because the patient didn't fit existing CDC criteria for coronavirus. Gautam

So I guess she must have not been quarantined at either hospital? Meaing, the nursing staff and patients near her would now be probably infected....for several days now. It does appear the UC DAvis hosptial staff were more careful.

SriKumar · Post by **SriKumar** » 29 Feb 2020 07:53

Amber G. wrote:
A Short comment: (For scientists )

Sensitivity of PCR type tests kits (US and other ones) is quite low (in the range of about 75% according to latest data) - Scientifically this means that a negative result may not be that reliable (it misses quite a lot).

According to latest data, CT scan, when probably done was about 97% sensitive (much more certain). This is based on Chinese data. (Recent JAMA article). They are suggesting CT testing which is faster here. .

This is a little confusing. I assumed that a PCR test would be a 'confirmatory test' since it looks for those specific nucleic acids in the virus that mark it as COVID-19 vs. CT scans that rely on a clinical (And maybe subjective) assessment of what a 'coronavirussed' lung would look like. In the end, a 'coronavirussed' lung would likely look the same as a lung with advanced pneumonia (am not a hakim, this is just a guess on my part). IT seems dicey to rely on a CT to claim that the person has a specific kind of virus with a specific nucleic acid sequence. Similarly, for a PCR test to be only 75% reliable is dicey as well.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 29 Feb 2020 08:31

^^^
SriKumar - Yes I mean what I say .. There are quite a few articles in last day or two in Science Daily and another magazine I don't recall right now (which refers to detail study using 1000+ cases).. and sensitivity for RT-PCR blood test (matching DNA etc.. using kits) is 70 to 75%..
(They missed as many as 30% of the cases -which when they tested again found it.).

They have also found the CT-SCAN (defined as "proper" - I think they have to do it twice or something like that) is about 97% correct. (Less misses)

(I will give a link for the original article and science daily article which is recommending CT-SCAN as much better and practical test for US).. Meanwhile you can do google on "selectivity" "RT-PCR vs CT-SCAN" COVID-19 etc.. to see if there are other articles.

This has caused quite a confusion in US.. There have been *serious* glitches.

For example, the latest California case. The person was admitted in UC Davis on Feb 19 in fairly serious condition. UV Davis requested CDC for PCR test but did not get okay.

On Sunday they finally got an OK, the RT-PCR test result came back on *Wednesday*
So authorities and hospital is not very happy -- it is *not* timely and practical.
I understand they have opened about 8 new labs in California to get this done in more timely manner.

Anyway I will put the link here for those who are interested in technical accuracy. (unless someone else put that here

..

Added later: Link 1: https://www.propublica.org/article/cdc- ... id-19-test
(This talks about this a little but does not give hard numbers -- you may have to look for the source paper)
Added later: See the next post with the link - (For scientists).

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 29 Feb 2020 08:46

Here is the science daily article for aam aadmi - which links to original study.

.CT provides best diagnosis for COVID-19

In a study of more than 1,000 patients published in the journal Radiology, chest CT outperformed lab testing in the diagnosis of 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19). The researchers concluded that CT should be used as the primary screening tool for COVID-19.

According to the latest guidelines published by the Chinese government, the diagnosis of COVID-19 must be confirmed by reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) or gene sequencing for respiratory or blood specimens, as the key indicator for hospitalization. However, with limitations of sample collection and transportation, as well as kit performance, the total positive rate of RT-PCR for throat swab samples has been reported to be about 30% to 60% at initial presentation.

In the current public health emergency, the low sensitivity of RT-PCR implies that a large number of COVID-19 patients won't be identified quickly and may not receive appropriate treatment. In addition, given the highly contagious nature of the virus, they carry a risk of infecting a larger population.

"Early diagnosis of COVID-19 is crucial for disease treatment and control. Compared to RT-PCR, chest CT imaging may be a more reliable, practical and rapid method to diagnose and assess COVID-19, especially in the epidemic area," the authors wrote.

Chest CT, a routine imaging tool for pneumonia diagnosis, is fast and relatively easy to perform. Recent research found that the sensitivity of CT for COVID-19 infection was 98% compared to RT-PCR sensitivity of 71% .

chola · Post by **chola** » 29 Feb 2020 10:39

This is a video made of an actual wet market IN WUHAN.

"How to Shop at a Wet Market in Wuhan"

Almost sounds like a joke but it is a honest depiction before the virus arose.

Recent comments under her video asking if the gori narrator is still alive. lol

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 29 Feb 2020 10:49

In any test, it is essential to understand the difference between sensitivity and specificity.

A sensitivity of 60% for the reverse transcriptase PCR implies there is a gold standard for diagnosis of the covi......fc uk it..the Wuhan virus.

"

SriKumar · Post by **SriKumar** » 29 Feb 2020 11:06

https://pubs.rsna.org/doi/10.1148/radiol.2020200642

This study has the actual numbers in a clear form in figure 1. OF the 1014 patients, 105 showed neither +ve RT-PCR nor +ve CT. So these should not be counted amoung the coronoavius infected crowd (it is -ve per 2 criteria). So the total of coroniavirus cases is 580+308+21 = 909. Of which 580+21 = 601 were +ve under the RT-PCR technique, which comes to a percentage of 601/909 ~ 66% (not sure how it is 71%).

SHows how confusing the situation must be for the doctors....how do you treat the people who exhibit the familiar symptoms but test -ve on the RT-PCR test. If you put them in a general ICU ward, and they are actually +Ve, they'll infect the nursing staff and other patients.

tandav · Post by **tandav** » 29 Feb 2020 11:14

chola wrote:This is a video made of an actual wet market IN WUHAN.

"How to Shop at a Wet Market in Wuhan"

Almost sounds like a joke but it is a honest depiction before the virus arose.

Recent comments under her video asking if the gori narrator is still alive. lol

Extremely well done in terms of organization, crowd, logistics, variety and selection. The produce in China seems very fresh and accessible. That it was this reasonably hygenic (as compared to India) place that resulted in Corona virus spread only leads me to believe that separating fresh meat is critical barrier to prevent spread of infections (in India only chicken and goats are slaughtered live in situ) whereas in China I believe many many other animals are also available for slaughter fresh, with close contact with humans in the trade.

Need more such farmers markets in India... (the only issue seems to be that of space) India has no space, whereas the Chinese cities seem to have better planning for such markets... we seem to spill such markets cheek in jowl with main stream traffic along side roads. Chinese seem to have covered maidans where vendors can come setup

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 29 Feb 2020 11:21

The same test will have a higher positive predictive value in Wuhan or China than in New York. This is because of the difference in prevalence.

The clinical scenario will also help to make a diagnosis. A contact of a person with the virus who tests negative but shows the typical symptoms probably has the virus and is a false negative in the polymerase test.

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 29 Feb 2020 11:24

^^you do realize that the politburo members do not eat this fresh produce. They have farms with known lower pollutant levels from which they source their produce and meat.

Manas · Post by **Manas** » 29 Feb 2020 11:25

Amber G or Others

Any models on the spread of infection in the tropical countries (with warmer weather already) that have reported a few cases going back 4-5 weeks ago for ex. Thailand, Singapore, India etc. Seems like the spread has largely been contained and limited to a few cases unlike China, Japan, South Korea, Italy, Iran where the weather is probably still wintry/on the colder side resulting in the virus transmitting easier.

Would be interesting to study those trends - will tell us if the Northern Hemisphere will be in good shape in the next 2-3 months as the worries shift to the southern hemisphere.

g.sarkar · Post by **g.sarkar** » 29 Feb 2020 11:47

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... e-updates/
Oregon coronavirus infection becomes third case of unknown origin in U.S.
By Marisa Iati, Derek Hawkins, Adam Taylor, Siobhán O'Grady and William Wan, Feb. 28, 2020 at 9:09 p.m. PST
A northwest Oregon resident has tested positive for coronavirus with no known history of travel to countries severely affected by the outbreak and no known contact with infected individuals, state health officials said Friday.
The case, in Washington County, marks the third case of unknown origin in the United States and indicates that the virus is spreading. It is also the first coronavirus case in Oregon. The adult patient, whose age and gender were not disclosed, is at Kaiser Permanente Westside Medical Center in Hillsboro, officials said.
Oregon Health Authority Director Patrick Allen said the case is considered “presumptive” while the state awaits confirmation of test results from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The patient was recently at a local elementary school, Allen said.
Earlier Friday, health officials in Santa Clara County, Calif., said a 65-year-old resident also had a case of coronavirus with unknown origin — becoming the second U.S. case of community transmission. The nation’s first community-transmission patient was a woman in Solano County, about 90 miles away.
The World Health Organization on Friday raised its risk assessment of the coronavirus to “very high,” citing the risk of spread and impact. WHO officials said their assessment — the highest level short of declaring a global pandemic — doesn’t change the approach countries should take to combat the virus but should serve as a “wake up” and “reality check” for countries to hurry their preparations. The U.S. stock market fell for the seventh straight day amid fears of global economic damage from the escalating outbreak, and the Federal Reserve took the unusual step of issuing a statement to reassure Americans.
.....
Gautam