Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 29 Feb 2020 23:40

From everything I have read, the Chinese response seems to have been swift and professional, while of course avoiding the Cold Fusion Goof: doing research by TV. Plus, the officials realized that the samples sent for testing were themselves highly toxic, so ordered them destroyed. Nothing strange there: it's not like they couldn't get new samples.

sooraj · Post by **sooraj** » 29 Feb 2020 23:51

Washington state reports first U.S. death from coronavirus.

Peregrine · Post by **Peregrine** » 01 Mar 2020 00:12

Watch: SAPM Mirza announces emergence of 2 new COVID-19 cases

Cheers

sudarshan · Post by **sudarshan** » 01 Mar 2020 00:12

Looking at the low incidence and transmission in Singapore, India, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Thailand, I too thought warm weather might be a factor in preventing transmission. Then I saw the low incidence and transmission in Finland and Russia, and got confused.

SriKumar - you might be right that the incidence in Wuhan is highly under-reported, but in that case, why go with that death rate figure of 2%? Isn't that figure based on the lower reported incidence rate, and maybe if you calculate death rate with a higher incidence, it will come out much lower?

SriKumar · Post by **SriKumar** » 01 Mar 2020 01:20

^^^ I am just using one of the several figures being bandied about. I should have used the figure 2.1% which did not change for several weeks (!). These are all hawaa-hawaai (airy fairy) statistics. Per the Stratcepts report that the yakherder linked, I see a number of 5.72% in Wuhan (with the 2 week delay calculation). I am not bound to any figure as far China's numbers are concered. The 2% was just a place holder with no significance to the actual numeral value. We have a better idea of death rates now from the situation in Japan, SoKo and Italy- more credible. The one statistic/model that I am actually intersted in (which I have not seen done anywhere) is to predict the number of sick people (not deaths, just infections) on Jan 22, based on a start date of DEc 12. Start date could be modifed as a parameter (+ or - 10 days) and see where the # of sick lie. The problem is we dont know the infection rate in unguarded state which is where China was, for much of January.

To me, the bigger issue with the Wuhan virus is the degree of infectiousness, and not the death rate. THe fear of infection will keep people from moving/traveling and in general not engage in economic activity. And the fear is not unfounded, it spreads very easily. And if people think that 'it only kills old people, I dont have to worry', consider that everyone has parents or grandparents who are old, and many younger people have pre-existing conditions. This is problematic. Also, if a huge number of people are infected, even with a very low death rate, it still ends up causing a large number of deaths, in absolute terms.

Amber.G: thanks for the explanations (please, no 'ji' anyone should using ji, it should be me).

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 01 Mar 2020 01:40

Sure, the 2.1% was bogus, and decided by committee. It was so obviously bogus that it was clearly meant to say: "v r not here to entertain ur media'.
The really confusing parameter seems to be that the potency/toxicity of the virus appears to go down drastically from when it first eats someone. This is a dangerous indication that it was an attack. The first people/ those in the immediate vicinity of the first release, all died. The next gen may have got older (not nascent) virus, they survived more. By the time the virus had gorged on human lungs and got fat and happy and put out its 6th or nth-generation, it was a much weaker virus.

So if one looks for data with a FIXED-potency virus in mind, one gets very confused. Please look again at the data, considering that the nascent virus is far more potent than an nth-gen. Of course for this one has to allow that, for instance, the virus that hit in Quom may have had nothing to do with the one that hit the Wuhan fish&bat market. May have come originally from same source, but were released independently. NOT by Ayatollahs going to buy fish in Wuhan.

Of course I don't know enough about a virus to know how its own (grand)^n-kids become less fierce/active than the 1st gen. But if I were developing a virus-based bio-weapon, I would.
Look at it this way: You would not design a self-replicating weapon (which is a virus) where the toxicity INCREASES with every generation. That would be a species-ending Satan Bug.

g.sarkar · Post by **g.sarkar** » 01 Mar 2020 01:42

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... e-updates/
Live updates: First U.S. death confirmed; travel restrictions announced affecting Iran, Italy and South Korea in response to coronavirus
Gerry Shih, James McAuley, Miriam Berger and Katie Mettler, Feb. 29, 2020
The Trump administration on Saturday announced additional travel restrictions affecting Iran, Italy and South Korea in response to the coronavirus outbreak, following the first death from the virus in the United States.
Vice President Pence said the existing travel ban on Iran would extend to foreign nationals who had been in that country the past 14 days. The State Department also is increasing its warning advising Americans not to travel to parts of Italy and South Korea affected by the virus.
Right before White House’s news conference, health officials in Washington State confirmed that a person diagnosed with coronavirus in the state’s King County had died. President Trump described her as a “wonderful woman” and a “medically high risk patient” in her late 50s, at a news conference at the White House.
More coronavirus infections were additionally reported from South Korea to France to Qatar on Saturday after health officials in Washington state, Oregon and California on Friday reported another worrying development: new cases among people who have not traveled recently to countries hit hard by the outbreak or come into contact with anyone known to have the disease, which public health officials refer to as community transmission.
.....
Gautam

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 01 Mar 2020 01:46

Oregon and California on Friday reported another worrying development: new cases among people who have not traveled recently to countries hit hard by the outbreak or come into contact with anyone known to have the disease

Does it propagate through CNN?

Vamsee · Post by **Vamsee** » 01 Mar 2020 04:43

The person who died in Washington state is from a nursing home & apparently at least 25 others have respiratory symptoms. Its not looking good. Expect Washington numbers to rise.

g.sarkar · Post by **g.sarkar** » 01 Mar 2020 05:49

https://www.rediff.com/business/report/ ... 200229.htm
With coronavirus going strong, aviation cos feel the heat
By Arindam Majumder and Aneesh Phadnis, February 29, 2020.
Reduction in fuel price was supposed to bring back good luck for Indian airlines. But with the global spread of coronavirus, airlines are being forced to rejig their network, cut flights, and delay launches.
For Tata-Singapore Airlines joint venture Vistara, the deployment of the first Boeing 787 Dreamliner is a milestone in its journey.
Medium and long-haul international flights mark the second phase of growth for the airline, which has faced severe challenges from low-cost airlines in the domestic market. But Vistara finds itself cornered as Japan, the airline’s long-planned maiden destination with Dreamliner, is increasingly feeling the coronavirus heat. Industry executives say that with Japan declaring a state of emergency, bookings may be hit for the carrier though the route launch is more than a month away. “It seems a little worrying but by April or May with the sun coming out in full force, I think the situation will improve,” an airline executive said. Vistara cancelled 20 flights between Delhi and Bangkok and eight between Delhi and Singapore in March. It will also cancel 26 flights between Mumbai and Singapore.
.....
Gautam

amitverma · Post by **amitverma** » 01 Mar 2020 07:52

Cases In South Korea Jumped from 2337 to 3526 and death from 13 to 17.

The main reason may be that they started working again and no close down was declared.
My brother had 2 days of mandated leave but 3rd day they started working like nothing is happening.

Schools are closed but universities and other institutions are working normally.

rahulm · Post by **rahulm** » 01 Mar 2020 08:01

Australia reports it’s first death in WA

g.sarkar · Post by **g.sarkar** » 01 Mar 2020 09:58

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... rus-deaths
Turkey and Pakistan close borders with Iran over coronavirus deaths
Ankara also suspends incoming flights as Iranian authorities try to contain outbreak in country
Patrick Wintour in Tehran, Sun 23 Feb 2020.
Turkey and Pakistan have both closed their borders with Iran, with Turkey also halting incoming flights, in an effort to stop the potential spread of coronavirus after Iran reported 43 cases of the disease.
All highways and railways were closed at the border between Turkey and Iran as of 5pm local time and flights from Iran had been suspended, the Turkish health minister, Fahrettin Koca, said on Sunday. Flights from Turkey to Iran were still being allowed.
A provincial official in Pakistan and the country’s Frontier Corps also confirmed that it had sealed its land border with Iran.
....
Gautam

sooraj · Post by **sooraj** » 01 Mar 2020 10:58

Thailand reported its first death from the coronavirus. The patient was a 35-year-old retail worker who also tested positive for dengue.

sooraj · Post by **sooraj** » 01 Mar 2020 10:59

52 People in Washington State Nursing Home with Coronavirus Symptoms, 2 Test Positive.

sooraj · Post by **sooraj** » 01 Mar 2020 11:12

Washington governor Jay Inslee declares state of emergency over #coronavirus in response to new COVID19 cases and one death, directing state agencies to use “all resources necessary” The declaration also allows the use of the Washington National Guard.

Gyan · Post by **Gyan** » 01 Mar 2020 11:15

UlanBatori wrote:
sooraj wrote:
drprashantmishra
@drprashantmish6
Current available treatment for corona virus is oseltamivir and chloroquine, oseltamivir manufactured by Solara , Laurus , Cipla and chloroquine by Ipca

Oh! In Humanese, that's TamiFlu and quinine, hain? I have a bottle of ZamZam Cola w/quinine. Now to add to the 140-proof Rooh Afza and that should be fine. At least I will FEEL above all this.

This person is "stock anal cyst"

sooraj · Post by **sooraj** » 01 Mar 2020 11:24

France reports 27 new cases of coronavirus, or 43 new cases so far today, raising total to 100.

Atmavik · Post by **Atmavik** » 01 Mar 2020 11:31

sooraj wrote:France reports 27 new cases of coronavirus, or 43 new cases so far today, raising total to 100.

the french kiss is now banned. looks like Milan/Northern Italy is a new hotspot.

milindc · Post by **milindc** » 01 Mar 2020 12:07

Seems Iran is going shit crazy.
Mullah says apply oil in rectum to cure CoronaVirus. Western medicine is unislamic.

https://www.alaraby.co.uk/english/news/ ... ian-cleric

sooraj · Post by **sooraj** » 01 Mar 2020 14:41

210 new cases of Coronavirus in Korea

There are now 3,736 total cases in Korea

There have been 18 deaths related to Coronavirus

30 patients have recovered and been discharged from the hospital, with 1 case of re-infection

sooraj · Post by **sooraj** » 01 Mar 2020 14:46

Gene sequencing indicates that the COVIN-19 coronavirus has been circulating in Washington state for weeks. One researcher estimates there have potentially been 150 to 1,500 related infections.

So far, only 70 cases have been confirmed nationwide.

sooraj · Post by **sooraj** » 01 Mar 2020 14:46

First case of Coronavirus in Nepal, HP Govt issues fresh advisory.

chola · Post by **chola** » 01 Mar 2020 17:54

milindc wrote:Seems Iran is going shit crazy.
Mullah says apply oil in rectum to cure CoronaVirus. Western medicine is unislamic.

https://www.alaraby.co.uk/english/news/ ... ian-cleric

LOL. Most hilarious I've read in a while. Such a backward set of tenets.

sooraj · Post by **sooraj** » 01 Mar 2020 18:13

Iran just reported 394 new #coronavirus cases today, bringing the total to 987 infections in the country and 54 deaths.

sooraj · Post by **sooraj** » 01 Mar 2020 18:14

Seoul government urges prosecutors to investigate Shincheonji Church founder Lee Man-hee and 12 other members on suspicion of murder for roles in the spread of #coronavirus in South Korea.

Lee is awaiting coronavirus test results, health authorities said.

sooraj · Post by **sooraj** » 01 Mar 2020 18:14

Germany reports 21 new cases of coronavirus, raising the total to 117.

tandav · Post by **tandav** » 01 Mar 2020 18:34

We can better predict how Corona virus will spread by understanding how Influenza viral infections peaks. Srinagar peaks in Jan-Mar(winter), Delhi peaks in July-Sep (monsoon)

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4193176/

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 01 Mar 2020 18:55

Slope (rate of cases reported) is increasing outside cheen. But rate of deaths is decreasing overall. SoKo halts Church services.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 01 Mar 2020 21:21

It looks like tit for tat biowar. Only we are not understanding the mechanisms.

Two players US and China.

Some collateral damage in third countries: SoKo, Italy etc

Now lets try to see things differently.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 01 Mar 2020 21:28

chola wrote:
milindc wrote:Seems Iran is going shit crazy.
Mullah says apply oil in rectum to cure CoronaVirus. Western medicine is unislamic.

https://www.alaraby.co.uk/english/news/ ... ian-cleric
LOL. Most hilarious I've read in a while. Such a backward set of tenets.

how dare you!!

the mullah is right and also they are usually the most experienced in applying oil in rectum.

mullah says apply oil in rectum because it solves all their problems and has been proven most efficacious for centuries

pssssst, has he elaborated on what usually comes next

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 01 Mar 2020 21:37

ramana wrote:It looks like tit for tat biowar. Only we are not understanding the mechanisms.

Two players US and China.

Some collateral damage in third countries: SoKo, Italy etc

Now lets try to see things differently.

tehran and wuhan are at 3 degrees celsius, give or take.

India is in a much warmer climatic zone and temperatures are far higher in the mid to late twenties degrees celsius and more in many places

The cold weather and temperatures are a factor in the spread of the virus.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 01 Mar 2020 22:03

milindc wrote:Seems Iran is going shit crazy.
Mullah says apply oil in rectum to cure CoronaVirus. Western medicine is unislamic.
https://www.alaraby.co.uk/english/news/ ... ian-cleric

Sneer all u want, oh ye of little faith! Kuffar!
What His Holiness said is simply translating the WHO/CDC guidelines:

Use disposable disinfectant/ protection during inter/intra-species contact.

You clearly did not read down to where he quoted from Pakistan Army manual re: applying the oil to goats and donkeys. Such ignorance!

Gyan · Post by **Gyan** » 01 Mar 2020 22:15

Wuhan weather is like 13/9 Centigrade
While India mostly like 30/15 going towards 40/30 C.

Let's hope Indian Summer Furnace will kill the virus

chola · Post by **chola** » 01 Mar 2020 22:20

ramana wrote:It looks like tit for tat biowar. Only we are not understanding the mechanisms.

Two players US and China.

Some collateral damage in third countries: SoKo, Italy etc

Now lets try to see things differently.

What tit for tat? The only ones taking a pummeling from this is Cheen and its allied economies which include SoKo and Japan. Only Italy is true collateral damage, maybe. Italy has a lot of chini fashion and textile firms using the good Italian rep for their products.

g.sarkar · Post by **g.sarkar** » 01 Mar 2020 22:40

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51674743
Coronavirus: What are the chances of dying?
By Robert Cuffe, Head of Statistics
Researchers currently think that between five and 40 coronavirus cases in 1,000 will result in death, with a best guess of nine in 1,000 or about 1%.
On Sunday, Health Secretary Matt Hancock said the UK government's "very best assessment" was that the mortality rate was "2% or, likely, lower".
But it depends on a range of factors: your age, sex and general health and the health system you are in.
How hard is it to work out the death rate? It is PhD-level hard. Even counting cases is tricky. Most cases of most viruses will go uncounted because people tend not to visit the doctor with mild symptoms. The different death rates we are seeing reported around the world are unlikely to be due to different versions of the virus. According to research by Imperial College, it's because different countries are better or worse at spotting the milder, harder to count cases. So under-reporting cases makes it easy to overestimate the death rate. But you can also get it wrong in the other direction.
It takes time before an infection results in recovery or death. If you include all cases that haven't yet had a chance to run their course, you will underestimate the death rate because you are missing the cases that will end in death later.
Scientists combine individual pieces of evidence about each of these questions to build a picture of the death rate.
For example, they estimate the proportion of cases with mild symptoms from small, defined groups of people who are monitored very tightly, like people on repatriated flights.But slightly different answers from those pieces of evidence will add up to big changes in the overall picture. If you just use data from Hubei, where the death rate has been much higher than elsewhere in China, then the overall death rate will look much worse.
So scientists give a range as well as a best current estimate. But even that doesn't tell the full story because there is no single death rate.
What's the risk for people like me?
Some types of people are more likely to die if they contract coronavirus: the elderly, the unwell and, maybe, men. In the first big analysis of more than 44,000 cases from China, the death rate was ten times higher in the very elderly compared to the middle-aged.
.....
Gautam

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 01 Mar 2020 22:56

The data published by WHO says 3.4% based on concurrent cases-deaths data. If you use the 2-week delay, 5.7 % and that seems to agree with the Joint WHO-China Report.
Don't know where the BeeBeeSee Expert is pulling his "estimate" from, but if he is Head of Statistics and gora and speaks with British accent then he must be right.
And if you happen to be near the epicenter of one of the nascent releases, 100%.

Gyan · Post by **Gyan** » 01 Mar 2020 23:24

Its possible that lot of mild cases in China, never went to Govt Hospital or Doctors, hence were not enumerated. If 80% of cases were mild then death rate falls below 1% in line with other nations.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 01 Mar 2020 23:37

Gyan: if u analyze the WHO data, deaths OUTSIDE China (concurrent case-death) is 1.4%. But time-delayed 2 weeks is much higher, since number of cases outside China is rising fast, so that case numbers in last 2 weeks are much higher. Effect of Chinese under-reporting etc are not present in these.
On the other hand, the outside-China data may be underestimating the death rate because people are rushing in to get tested - and the test takes a few days to come back. I am sure doctors are terrified of not catching real cases, much more than reporting cases that turn out negative.
WHO/China modified the counting to reflect only "lab-confirmed cases" as Cases, but I don't know if that holds, say, in Malloostan. The bb there who returned from Wuhan to such fanfare, was apparently only suffering from a sore throat.
Anyway this is all noise. Point is that the nascent version seems to be near-certain fatal, but after it eats humans and generates Rahul-like drone offspring, it is much less lethal.
So will there be a New Release in desh, is my worry.

vera_k · Post by **vera_k** » 02 Mar 2020 02:05

Nice chart here comparing this new flu to other diseases. Makes it look like another case of the Y2K bug.

Just how contagious is COVID-19? This chart puts it in perspective.