Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

sooraj · Post by **sooraj** » 02 Mar 2020 02:23

#Coronavirus has jumped from 1,000 cases total cases to 1,700 cases in Italy within 24 hours.

sreerudra · Post by **sreerudra** » 02 Mar 2020 02:40

Gyan wrote:Wuhan weather is like 13/9 Centigrade
While India mostly like 30/15 going towards 40/30 C.

Let's hope Indian Summer Furnace will kill the virus

Indeed, India already shutdown labs and preparing for the virus before monsoon hits!

vinod · Post by **vinod** » 02 Mar 2020 03:28

A week ago was half term holidays in UK. Most travelled to europe during those days. So, expect a big jump in numbers in UK in the next 2 weeks.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 02 Mar 2020 03:42

Any data from Oirope on number of reported cases vs. cases confirmed to be COVID-19? I think ordinary flu cases are inflating the count needlessly. Even if ppl are dying, esp. 80-year-olds with pneumonia, that is not entirely abnormal in February. Do they really have the correct test even in Italy? My guess is that they are all milking EU/WHO Oiros in the name of Emergency Response. 675 million dollars and counting...

BSR Murthy · Post by **BSR Murthy** » 02 Mar 2020 04:46

UlanBatori wrote:Any data from Oirope on number of reported cases vs. cases confirmed to be COVID-19? I think ordinary flu cases are inflating the count needlessly. Even if ppl are dying, esp. 80-year-olds with pneumonia, that is not entirely abnormal in February. Do they really have the correct test even in Italy? My guess is that they are all milking EU/WHO Oiros in the name of Emergency Response. 675 million dollars and counting...

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 02 Mar 2020 05:17

Okay - since there have been some discussion about sensitivity and specificity of tests, here is a simple example to test our understanding. Assume the following is based on mathematical model - no tricks and assume numbers are correct etc...And sampling is completely random/uniformly distributed etc.

Suppose a test for disease (or condition) X is “99% accurate” (For simplicity both sensitivity and specificity are 99%). I am using the same percentage for both positive and negative results. Many tests have a different accuracy for positive and negative but this is just to understand the basics). In plain terms this means:
If you have X, the test will be positive 99% of the time, and if you don’t have it, the test will be negative 99% of the time. The other 1% in each scenario would be a false negative or false positive.

Further, for simplicity that we know 0.1% of people (1 in 1000) have X.

Now you have tested and test came out positive. What is the probability that you have X?
a) About 99%
b) Lower, say about 90 to 99 % or so..
c) Some thing else (about xx)

(This is a straight forward Question so I am not putting the answer here, But go ahead and put the comments The result may surprise some - and discussion may enlightening )
***
BTW I remember a few years ago when Ebola was going on, there was in an article in a very reputable journal where they asked similar problem to quite a few doctors in the field (who ought to know the answer because it is taught) but almost half gave wrong answers which was quite disturbing according to that article.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 02 Mar 2020 05:50

chola wrote:
ramana wrote:It looks like tit for tat biowar. Only we are not understanding the mechanisms.

Two players US and China.

Some collateral damage in third countries: SoKo, Italy etc

Now lets try to see things differently.
What tit for tat? The only ones taking a pummeling from this is Cheen and its allied economies which include SoKo and Japan. Only Italy is true collateral damage, maybe. Italy has a lot of chini fashion and textile firms using the good Italian rep for their products.

lots of cheeni traffic in iran too.

mostly military and OBOR infrastructure related.

sudarshan · Post by **sudarshan** » 02 Mar 2020 06:15

Amber G. wrote:Okay - since there have been some discussion about sensitivity and specificity of tests, here is a simple example to test our understanding. Assume the following is based on mathematical model - no tricks and assume numbers are correct etc...And sampling is completely random/uniformly distributed etc.

Suppose a test for disease (or condition) X is “99% accurate” (For simplicity both sensitivity and specificity are 99%). I am using the same percentage for both positive and negative results. Many tests have a different accuracy for positive and negative but this is just to understand the basics). In plain terms this means:
If you have X, the test will be positive 99% of the time, and if you don’t have it, the test will be negative 99% of the time. The other 1% in each scenario would be a false negative or false positive.

Further, for simplicity that we know 0.1% of people (1 in 1000) have X.

Now you have tested and test came out positive. What is the probability that you have X?
a) About 99%
b) Lower, say about 90 to 99 % or so..
c) Some thing else (about xx)
(This is a straight forward Question so I am not putting the answer here, But go ahead and put the comments The result may surprise some - and discussion may enlightening )
***
BTW I remember a few years ago when Ebola was going on, there was in an article in a very reputable journal where they asked similar problem to quite a few doctors in the field (who ought to know the answer because it is taught) but almost half gave wrong answers which was quite disturbing according to that article.

Is this a Bayesian problem? If so, just use the Bayes' equation, and you get the answer. I don't remember the equation off-hand, will have to look it up.

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 02 Mar 2020 06:34

I think this has already been covered in my post on the issue of positive predictive value and the role of prevalence, I am not sure what the intent of this post is.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 02 Mar 2020 07:35

sudarshan wrote:

Is this a Bayesian problem? If so, just use the Bayes' equation, and you get the answer. I don't remember the equation off-hand, will have to look it up.

Yes of course, but the point here, is to see how much commonsense/intuition people have when it comes to statistics..(One does not even need a formula .. as the problem is quite simple and intuitive)

I just asked this to some people who know all about formulas yet and I was surprised that their guess/intuition was wrong by a lot.

The answer which may surprise some people is the probability is about 9%.

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 02 Mar 2020 07:50

I suppose if one gives these people the benefit of a website search and some time they would also have little problem with 'intuition'.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 02 Mar 2020 08:56

APS (American Physical Society) Annual meeting - one of the big event for US physicist is canceled.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 02 Mar 2020 09:03

Very disturbing to me is Steven Miller's wife is now in now in charge - for every report has not to be cleared from her before it can be officially reported.

Gyan · Post by **Gyan** » 02 Mar 2020 09:21

UlanBatori wrote:Gyan: if u analyze the WHO data, deaths OUTSIDE China (concurrent case-death) is 1.4%. But time-delayed 2 weeks is much higher, since number of cases outside China is rising fast, so that case numbers in last 2 weeks are much higher. Effect of Chinese under-reporting etc are not present in these.
On the other hand, the outside-China data may be underestimating the death rate because people are rushing in to get tested - and the test takes a few days to come back. I am sure doctors are terrified of not catching real cases, much more than reporting cases that turn out negative.
WHO/China modified the counting to reflect only "lab-confirmed cases" as Cases, but I don't know if that holds, say, in Malloostan. The bb there who returned from Wuhan to such fanfare, was apparently only suffering from a sore throat.
Anyway this is all noise. Point is that the nascent version seems to be near-certain fatal, but after it eats humans and generates Rahul-like drone offspring, it is much less lethal.
So will there be a New Release in desh, is my worry.

Data is indeed fuzzy and interpretation is worse due to conflicting motivations.

1. Some patients don't go to doctors, how many?
2. Misdiagnosed how many?
3. Incorrect Lab reports? False negatives, how many?
4. Wrong medications killing patients etc
Etc etc

But there is no doubt that spate of early deaths in China includingin Doctors, raises perplexing questions.

Fatality rate should be (present Deaths)/(Cases reported two weeks ago). But this calculation has it's own problem, of underreporting of infections & over reporting of old age pneumonia patients.

I wonder if China discovered a Bio weapon. Were trying to make a vaccine but disease went out of control?

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 02 Mar 2020 09:42

^^ IMO what we need now to close out the panic is the number declared recovered. The WHO is only reporting Cumulative Cases, New Cases, Cumulative Deaths, New Deaths. That will never come down! Best is that it will flatten out, but all that people will see is a large number.

2-week delay now seems right on target, based on the Joint WHO-Cheen Report which is by far the best resource I have found. Maybe they got the 2-week idea from UBCN Infectious Diseases Division. Probably

Of course the dead are gone. But what do you get if you subtract Dead from Cases Reported, with a 2-week delay? Do you get Number Recovered? Are people in hospital after 2 weeks without getting discharged? What percentage? In China, with hospital beds short, I am sure they will not be keen to hold someone in hospital for long. In US it would kill the patient by coronary failure, not coronavirus, because of the cost alone.

I wonder what happens after people are sent home: are they walking about? Still in quarantine? Or still sick and in bed?

If we know this Percentage Still in Hospital After 2 Weeks, we can plot Number of Active Cases, which should decay (I hope) fast. Trying to see where I can find that data: any help appreciated.

sudarshan · Post by **sudarshan** » 02 Mar 2020 09:54

UlanBatori wrote: If we know this Percentage Still in Hospital After 2 Weeks, we can plot Number of Active Cases, which should decay (I hope) fast. Trying to see where I can find that data: any help appreciated.

Not sure if this is what you're asking for, but this site plots the current number of active cases. It doesn't factor 2 week delays or anything, it's just a plot of raw number of active cases.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... -new-cases

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 02 Mar 2020 10:02

Pakistan Grapples With Drug-Resistant Typhoid Outbreak
Just an example of what's wrong with pakis, and what hides under polio cases that are declared.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 02 Mar 2020 10:12

^^ THANKS, Sudarshanji. Let me see if I can find the actual numbers so I don't have to pick off the chart, but it proves the point that the disease has turned down nicely, at least inside China. Oh, what a relief! Can go to sleep now. As soon as I finish drinking my Rooh-Afza With Quinine.

If the actual numbers by date can be found, the 2-week delay can be incorporated. To make it sound needlessly complicated, what i am doing is to find the time-shifted value of the Cross-Correlation with a Convolution Integral with an Inverse Fourier Transform of the complex conjugate product of two Fourier-transformed time series. THERE!!! Take THAT, Medical Jargonists!

IOW, using an MS Excel or Mac Numbers sheet and picking data from 2 weeks ago by hand.

Everyone needs to look at that simple chart.

Stock Market needs to see that chart too: it shows that Chinese production machine is cranking up, 2 weeks to a month before rest of the world opens. So their product is going to arrive right when demand and prices peak.

CalvinH · Post by **CalvinH** » 02 Mar 2020 10:20

BSR Murthy wrote:
UlanBatori wrote:Any data from Oirope on number of reported cases vs. cases confirmed to be COVID-19? I think ordinary flu cases are inflating the count needlessly. Even if ppl are dying, esp. 80-year-olds with pneumonia, that is not entirely abnormal in February. Do they really have the correct test even in Italy? My guess is that they are all milking EU/WHO Oiros in the name of Emergency Response. 675 million dollars and counting...

Italy has reported more deaths than sick in many EU states. What is going on and how come the spread is so bad there..

BSR Murthy · Post by **BSR Murthy** » 02 Mar 2020 10:48

CalvinH wrote: Italy has reported more deaths than sick in many EU states. What is going on and how come the spread is so bad there..

The COVID-19 virus was thought to be present for weeks before detection in northern Italy. I have read similar things about Washington state as well. Italy appears to have seeded the spread in much of Europe and beyond.
Coronavirus may have been in Italy for weeks before it was detected

Perhaps poor testing and sloppy handling of cases at the onset may have contributed.
As coronavirus slams Italy, paralysis and anxiety spread

sooraj · Post by **sooraj** » 02 Mar 2020 10:53

Two cases of coronavirus confirmed in Indonesia.

sooraj · Post by **sooraj** » 02 Mar 2020 11:15

Health officials in Washington state said a man in his 70s died, days after they said a man in his 50s died.

Two people tested positive for the novel coronavirus in the Tampa Bay area of Florida.

New York state confirms first coronavirus case: Governor Cuomo.

#Miami man tests negative for #coronavirus but receives $3,270 bill.

sooraj · Post by **sooraj** » 02 Mar 2020 11:16

South Korea reports 476 new coronavirus cases, total at 4,212.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 02 Mar 2020 11:23

BSR Murthy wrote:
The COVID-19 virus was thought to be present for weeks before detection in northern Italy. I have read similar things about Washington state as well...

I remember pretty well - First US Case was Washington state..some 30 year old who came from Wuhan, developed some symptoms later on and then was quarantined and isolated/teated in Everett Hospital -- went out of news cycle .. Now the 18 year old is from the same area.. so is Kirkland (quite near by to that hospital) where other cases were found. ..
From what I heard/read from latest report is, that in one (at least) present Washington case - with detailed study of gene-sequencing - is related to Wuhan version and they are saying that most likely it spread from person to person from the China.. and not related with the later version.. prompting fear that it people who carry it may not always show symptoms..
***

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 02 Mar 2020 11:45

With respect to Italy - Here is one theory, take it for what's it worth (not reported anywhere I know)
I posted here about a quite a few people (working with my son) who visited China (not Wuhan) in mid January.
Most of the people who came back did quarantine but at least one person did come to office..

The part of China where some manufacturing of the equipments happens was not other part of China - but now that part is also locked down-- which was effecting that particular business here in Silicon Valley.

The other part where this equipment get's manufactured is -- Italy .. so they were sending people there to see if they can increase the process (this was before outbreak in Europe)..

So a few people made a Trip to Italy - only to be turned back from the airport in Italy ,,

(So you know where this story is going..)Now a few people are quarantined again for another 14 days

Story gets weirder .. There may be a connection with Wuhan.. but I will wait to post more details when/if confirmed.. and I get more reliable information ..

*** Meanwhile some recommendation which may be good to follow:

- Stock up - 2-3 months supply of necessary medicine and also non-perishable food. Better be safe.
(In China and parts of Europe, it is quite difficult to get these supplies)
- Costco and other places are out of masks, disinfectant and even thermometers..
- Gloves can help. (Use it while you fill up gas tank etc,,) .. Also surgical Masks if you are sick (even with flu)
- Get Flu shot (If you have not) - specially if you are older.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 02 Mar 2020 11:54

From MIT's technical Review: (May or may not require subscription)

What are the best coronavirus treatments?

Contains latest on promising drugs. (Virus blockers, Vaccines, "Faster vaccines", Plasma from survivors and HIV drugs)

BSR Murthy · Post by **BSR Murthy** » 02 Mar 2020 12:25

Amber G. wrote:From MIT's technical Review: (May or may not require subscription)

What are the best coronavirus treatments?

Contains latest on promising drugs. (Virus blockers, Vaccines, "Faster vaccines", Plasma from survivors and HIV drugs)

Remdesivir and the anti malarial Chloroquine both have shown in vitro inhibition of the virus. Randomized trials are underway with Remdesivir (Gilead; GILD) in Hubei province and now in Nebraska.
Moderna (MRNA) has sent out a batch of its vaccine candidate mRNA-1273 for human trials to NIAID.
Another company Novavax (NVAX) started animal testing of its vaccine candidates.

Mollick.R · Post by **Mollick.R** » 02 Mar 2020 16:05

Amber G. wrote:
*** Meanwhile some recommendation which may be good to follow:

- Stock up - 2-3 months supply of necessary medicine and also non-perishable food. Better be safe.
(In China and parts of Europe, it is quite difficult to get these supplies)
- Costco and other places are out of masks, disinfectant and even thermometers..
- Gloves can help. (Use it while you fill up gas tank etc,,) .. Also surgical Masks if you are sick (even with flu)
- Get Flu shot (If you have not) - specially if you are older.

Sir if u can elaborate a little more and explicitly mention the list of most essential medicines which needs to stocked.

TIA.

sooraj · Post by **sooraj** » 02 Mar 2020 16:41

Two new cases of #coronavirus detected from #Delhi and #Telengana.

sooraj · Post by **sooraj** » 02 Mar 2020 16:43

Adviser to Iran's supreme leader dies from coronavirus.

sooraj · Post by **sooraj** » 02 Mar 2020 16:43

Iran reports 523 new cases of coronavirus and 11 new deaths, raising total to 1,501 cases and 66 dead.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 02 Mar 2020 18:08

That RED-colored map is sheer panic-incitement. Fact is that except for Italy the numbers are small to tiny. One case in the center of say, Siberia does not merit coloring the entire Russian landmass red. Now I am quite sure that most of this is deliberate panic-incitement in order to drive the stock market down and buy at deep discounts.

Summary: 89,xxx people infected. 2,9xx people died. But currently only 40,4xx people are infected. Which means that 46000+ people are off the lists, recovered and sent home.

vinod · Post by **vinod** » 02 Mar 2020 19:52

UlanBatori wrote:That RED-colored map is sheer panic-incitement. Fact is that except for Italy the numbers are small to tiny. One case in the center of say, Siberia does not merit coloring the entire Russian landmass red. Now I am quite sure that most of this is deliberate panic-incitement in order to drive the stock market down and buy at deep discounts.

Summary: 89,xxx people infected. 2,9xx people died. But currently only 40,4xx people are infected. Which means that 46000+ people are off the lists, recovered and sent home.

^^^
Entire cities being locked down, travel reduced, unproductive workers etc. are all going to cause an economic havoc which will be unprecedented.
This will in turn trigger many bubbles to burst, nonviable businesses to go bust, mass unemployment and associated social unrest. This is more likely to end in a downward spiral which I hope it doesn't end up in triggering a major war.

So, at what point do you buy at discount?

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 02 Mar 2020 20:46

sudarshan wrote:
Amber G. wrote:Okay - since there have been some discussion about sensitivity and specificity of tests, here is a simple example to test our understanding. Assume the following is based on mathematical model - no tricks and assume numbers are correct etc...And sampling is completely random/uniformly distributed etc.

(This is a straight forward Question so I am not putting the answer here, But go ahead and put the comments The result may surprise some - and discussion may enlightening )
***
BTW I remember a few years ago when Ebola was going on, there was in an article in a very reputable journal where they asked similar problem to quite a few doctors in the field (who ought to know the answer because it is taught) but almost half gave wrong answers which was quite disturbing according to that article.
Is this a Bayesian problem? If so, just use the Bayes' equation, and you get the answer. I don't remember the equation off-hand, will have to look it up.

No Saar, not a Bayesian problem.
Usually one can't achieve both sensitivity and specificity 99%, even though it is ideal.
One is (1-Type-I) and the other is (1-Type-II) error in statistical hypothesis testing.
To determine a biomedical tests's accuracy (both sensitivity and specificity) the lab tests are done with known cases, and it depends on
the sample size. If you want to increase sensitivity, then you give up something on specificity, and vice-versa. The only way you can have both high enough is through your "large" sample size which may not be possible in a lab setting.
The Bayesian analysis which is done through "Bayes factor" (using the posterior probability distribution) uses some assumed prior knowledge
on those two error probabilities. That is another layer of assumption which may be far off from the reality.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 02 Mar 2020 20:55

vinod wrote:So, at what point do you buy at discount?

Last Fridin? Some ppl think so because DoW is up 200 points.

vinod · Post by **vinod** » 02 Mar 2020 21:13

UlanBatori wrote:
vinod wrote:So, at what point do you buy at discount?
Last Fridin? Some ppl think so because DoW is up 200 points.

There will be occasional jumps, but my guess is that this negative trend will continue for sometime. FTSE was nearly 3% up this morning before coming crashing down until BoE intervened and said we will support. So, the volatility is here to stay. Unless, you are an active day trader with nerves of steel, you wouldn't be riding these choppy waves

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 02 Mar 2020 21:30

China closes PopUp Hospital after last patient discharged

Authorities in Wuhan have closed the city’s first makeshift hospital after discharging the last batch of 34 recovered coronavirus patients, as the rate of infection in the city has dropped dramatically. Wuhan was the site of the original outbreak of the coronavirus epidemic, and the city’s response, building a new hospital in less than two weeks to handle Covid-19 patients, was seen as a modern marvel with the total number of hospital beds in the city eventually going from 5,000 to 23,000...

The hospital’s last patients were given the all clear late Monday, according to state broadcaster CCTV, amid a sharp decline in Covid-19 cases in Hubei province, with less than 200 new cases reported for the first time since January. Outside of Hubei province, there were only six new cases confirmed in mainland China over the weekend.

The hospital is one of 16 built across Hubei province to handle the epidemic, in which at least 12,000 people have been treated. In China alone, the total number of officially reported Covid-19 infections stands at 80,026 with the death toll reaching 2,912 as of Sunday evening. The head of Wuhan’s largest temporary hospital, located in an exhibition centre with beds for 2,000 patients, confirmed plans to shutter that facility by the end of March.

"If nothing special happens, I expect the operation of our makeshift hospital, the biggest one in Wuhan, could complete its historical mission by the end of March," said Dr. Zhang Junjian, the director of the hospital.

Meanwhile in Ulan Bator, notices posted at LabCorp testing labs:

No one with cough, cold etc will be tested: all go get a doctor's certificate before testing can be done. CDC orders!

vinod · Post by **vinod** » 02 Mar 2020 21:48

The infections were supposed to go down. I'm still struggling to see the end game here.

At what point do they plan to remove the restrictions? Do they remove the restrictions until no infection has been reported for 2 weeks? Will we see spike as soon as the restrictions are relaxed? What happens then?
Unless an effective vaccine or treatment plan comes up, it is difficult to control this. They would have to relax restrictions and decide that economic cost is not worth the cost of people lives!! Tough call to make!

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 02 Mar 2020 21:50

^^By that theory, we would all be N95-shivering in our caves due to H1N1, Plague, Chickenpox, SmallPox, Malaria, SARS, MERS....
Look at it this way: In the US at least, majority of ppl have flu shots every year. It's the one thing that the govt gives out for $10 max, at grocery stores, schools etc etc. Well worth the investment. Still, 12000 ppl die every year, but the nation does not shut down because of that.

Right now, listening to the Experts there is no other preventive medicine for COVID-19 (except vodka which the Russians seem to be taking i good quantitites). So at least in US, I am hopeful that the infection gets stopped cold. Washington State? It **MAY** turn out that the patients were survivalist types who rejected/never got flu vaccine.
Same, I suspect in Italy, judging by their driving habits and general attitude towards sensible advice. SoKo I don't know.

sooraj · Post by **sooraj** » 02 Mar 2020 21:53

Italian tourist tests positive for #coronavirus in Rajasthan, samples sent to Pune for confirmation.